Chapter 24 Fateful Decisions [extract]
The consequences of inaction now are not similarly reversible.
The arithmetic of Chapter 3 about the new patterns of global growth takes away the time we may once have thought we had for experiment, talk, and leisurely decision making.
It tells us that business as usual is taking us quickly towards what the science tells us are high risks of highly disruptive climate change.
So fateful decisions are to be taken at Copenhagen.
The analysis of the current international situation in chapters 8, 9 and 10 tells us that a good outcome is not assured.
The international community is on a course plotted before the implications of the current era of growth we call the Platinum Age had been absorbed into its decision-making framework.
It is on a course plotted before humanity had absorbed the implications of the acceleration of economic growth in the early 21st century; the concentration of that growth in economies at the stage of development when growth absorbs huge amounts of energy; and in countries where coal is the cheapest and most convenient energy source.
New knowledge changes the calculus.
The old calculus said that there was time—time for all developed countries to take the early steps in mitigation, and then for all developing countries to join at a later unspecified date.
The old calculus said that it was good enough for the developing countries to begin to contribute through the Clean Development Mechanism and in other ways that made no additional contribution to the global mitigation effort, beyond commitments that the developed countries had already made.
The Review's updated projections show that approaches based on the old calculus will not hold the risks of dangerous climate change to acceptable levels.
The arithmetic of Chapter 3 about the new patterns of global growth takes away the time we may once have thought we had for experiment, talk, and leisurely decision making.
It tells us that business as usual is taking us quickly towards what the science tells us are high risks of highly disruptive climate change.
So fateful decisions are to be taken at Copenhagen.
The analysis of the current international situation in chapters 8, 9 and 10 tells us that a good outcome is not assured.
The international community is on a course plotted before the implications of the current era of growth we call the Platinum Age had been absorbed into its decision-making framework.
It is on a course plotted before humanity had absorbed the implications of the acceleration of economic growth in the early 21st century; the concentration of that growth in economies at the stage of development when growth absorbs huge amounts of energy; and in countries where coal is the cheapest and most convenient energy source.
New knowledge changes the calculus.
The old calculus said that there was time—time for all developed countries to take the early steps in mitigation, and then for all developing countries to join at a later unspecified date.
The old calculus said that it was good enough for the developing countries to begin to contribute through the Clean Development Mechanism and in other ways that made no additional contribution to the global mitigation effort, beyond commitments that the developed countries had already made.
The Review's updated projections show that approaches based on the old calculus will not hold the risks of dangerous climate change to acceptable levels.
The final report of the Garnaut Climate Change Review is here.
In his final report on the case for action and a carbon reduction scheme in Australia, Professor Ross Garnaut has released economic modelling warning wages will fall as a result of the impact of climate change if the world fails to act. Sea levels will rise and heat related stress, dengue fever and gastroenteritis will impact on productivity. Roads and other infrastructure will also be affected.
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