Tuesday 2 July 2013

Antony Green runs Australian Federal Election numbers based on Morgan Poll of 1 July 2013


Roy Morgan Research 1 July 2013:
Finding No. 5010 - This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last few days via Face-to-Face, Internet and SMS interviewing, June 28-30, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,438 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 1.5% (down 0.5%) did not name a party.
This week’s Morgan Poll, the second since Kevin Rudd became Prime Minister, shows another swing to the ALP. The ALP 51.5% (up 2% since last Wednesday’s special snap SMS Morgan Poll) is now ahead of the L-NP 48.5% (down 2%) on a two-party preferred basis.
The L-NP primary vote is 40.5% (down 2.5%) slightly ahead of the ALP 39.5% (up 1.5%). Among the minor parties Greens support is 8.5% (unchanged) and support for Independents/ Others is 11.5% (up 1%) – including within that support for Katter’s Australian Party of 1.5% and support for the Palmer United Party of 1.5%.
If a Federal Election were held today the result would be a close ALP win according to this weekend’s multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,438 Australian electors aged 18+.
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has improved strongly after Rudd’s return – up 12.5pts to 106 – the highest since mid March 2013. Now 43.5% (up 5%) say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 37.5% (down 7.5%) say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’....

Antony Green's Election Calculator 1 July 2013:

Calculations based on 1 July 2013 Morgan Poll

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