Monday, 2 March 2015

Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott is still on the nose with electors according to latest polls and Coalition on road to losing government in 2016

Newspoll published in The Australian, 24 February 2015

Between 20-22 February 2015 68% of Newspoll respondents were dissatisfied with Tony Abbott's performance as prime minister, only 35% thought he would make a better prime minister than Opposition Leader Bill Shorten and, although level with Labor on the primary vote, if an election had been held last Saturday the Abbott Coalition Government would have in all likelihood lost convincingly.

Fifty-one per cent of respondents thought Abbott was best to handle the issues of national security and asylum seekers, but only 45% felt he was best to handle the economy, 33% education, 30% health & medicare and, 22% climate change.

Despite Abbott’s supposed post-spill motion Damascus moment, he is still seen as “arrogant” by 77% of poll respondents, while only 43% find him “trustworthy”, 40% “likeable” and, 33% “in touch with voters”.

The Essential Research poll published on the same day also indicates that although the primary vote gap has narrowed, if an election had been held on 24 February 2015 government would have passed to Labor.

Similarly, the Morgan Poll covering 21-22 February 2015 shows Labor would in all probability have won a federal election if it had been held on Saturday 21 February.

The Fairfax-Ipsos Poll covering 26-28 February 2015 and published 1 March found:      
Seventy-two per cent of respondents did not believe that Tony Abbott has the confidence of his own party.
Abbott's leadership attribute ratings were reportedly all negative.
Thirty-two per cent of the 1,406 people surveyed approved of Tony Abbott’s performance as prime minister and, thirty-nine per cent viewed him as competent, 38 per cent saw him as having a grasp of the economy, with only 36 per cent believing him to be trustworthy.

Forty-three per cent of those surveyed approved of Bill Shorten's performance as opposition leader
Primary Vote
Labor 36%
Coalition 42%

An apparent shift of -3.6% in the Coalition's primary vote when compared with 7 September 2013 and an increase in Labor's primary vote of 2.7% for the same period.
Two Party-Preferred Vote
Labor 51%
Coalition 49%
A 4.5 per cent shift against the Coalition since the 2013 federal election’s 3.61% swing in its favour. This might see Labor achieve a narrow win in 2016.

Preferred Prime Minister
Bill Shorten 44%

Tony Abbott 39%

Reportedly only 38% of respondents identifying as Coalition voters chose Abbott as preferred prime minister.

Approval Rating

Bill Shorten 43%

Tony Abbott 39%

The more positive primary vote numbers for the Coalition may be because "Voters appear to already be factoring in Abbott's potential departure. They don't like him, prefer Turnbull and assume Abbott is not long in his job" according to Ipsos pollster Jessica Elgood.

If Abbott remains prime minister through March, the next Fairfax-Ipsos poll may see the higher primary vote depart the Coalition.
With three out of four of the current major polls going against the Federal Coalition, it would appear that Abbott’s personal unpopularity less than one week shy of halfway through his government's first term in office sees Labor continuing on track towards a positive electoral outcome in 2016.

No comments: