Thursday, 19 May 2016

Australian Federal Election 2016: a tale of five polls

Poll No. 1 based on statistical analysis….

May 16 2016 Finding No. 6808 Topic: Federal Poll Public Opinion Country: Australia

In mid-May ALP support 52.5% (up 1.5%) is now clearly in front of the L-NP 47.5% (down 1.5%) on a two-party preferred basis after the first week of official campaigning following Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s decision to call a Double Dissolution Election for Saturday July 2.
This is easily the best result for ALP since Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister in September 2015 and if a Federal Election were held now the ALP would win.
Primary support for the L-NP is 36.5% (down 3.5%) with ALP at 33% (up 0.5%). Support for the Greens is up 2% to 15.5%, Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) 5% (up 1%; 19.5% in South Australia), Katter’s Australian Party is 0.5% (down 0.5%), Palmer United Party is 0% (unchanged) and Independents/ Others are at 9.5% (up 0.5%).
The massive vote for minority parties (30.5%) suggests that today they would definitely control the Senate and the Greens and the Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) could control the House of Representatives.

Poll No. 2 also based on statistical analysis….

8 May 2016 release

Poll No. 3 based on the degree of attraction to clickbait….

The Sydney Morning Herald, 12 May 2015:

 The Holder of the TV Remote poll....

Media Spy, 13 May 2016:

The Punter’s poll….

Sportsbet, accessed 16 May 2015:

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