Saturday, 4 June 2016

Polling blues for Team Turnbull at the end of Week 4 of the 2016 Australian Federal election campaign

It suggests voters are now genuinely considering throwing out a first-term federal government - an event that has not occurred since the dark days of the 1930s depression….

The nationwide phone survey of 1359 residents taken from Tuesday to Thursday , put Labor ahead on 51-49 after preferences, and showed Mr Turnbull's approval continuing to slide towards negative territory after record highs last November. His net approval now stands at plus-3 points - barely inside positive territory - against Bill Shorten who is unchanged on minus-6…..

If replicated at the election on July 2, the 49 per cent return for the Coalition would be the equivalent of a massive 4.5 per cent swing against it - enough to see it bundled from office in a humiliating defeat costing it as many as 23 seats.

While locally The Daily Examiner reported on the odds in the seat of Page, 3 June 2016:

THE BOOKIES are giving the seat of Page to the ALP less than a month out from the Federal election.
Online bookmaking firm has the incumbent, the Nationals' Kevin Hogan, drifting out $1.30 favouritism to $2.15 and Labor's Janelle Saffin firming to $1.65 from $3.50 at the start of the campaign..
The bookmaker says the majority of punter support has been for Saffin, who was the Member for Page from 2007 -2013, with 5:6 bets heading her way.
The Greens have also been wound out from $16 to $51, with not a single bet coming for Kudra Falla-Ricketts.
Minor party candidates Bethany McAlpine, Mark Ellis and Anna Ludvick are all priced at $34 after being wound out from $26.
"Kevin Hogan was considered a lock-in for Page before Malcolm Turnbull called the election, but punters have turned," said's Ben Bulmer.
"Janelle Saffin, who started the campaign as the outsider, is now the punters pick and the clear favourite to win back the seat."

No comments: