Monday, 31 October 2016

Essential Research vs Morgan Research on Australian support levels for "Muslim immigration"

Image from thread of
The Australian 21 September 2016

Roy Morgan Research, 26 October 2016:

In stark contrast to the widely reported Essential Research Poll in mid-September that claimed Australians opposed Muslim Immigration 49% cf. 40%, independent research by Roy Morgan shows Australians continue to support Muslim immigration (58% cf. 33%) as well as Asylum Seeker Immigration (66% to 25%).
Five weeks ago, Australians were bombarded with the news that we, as a nation, or the majority of us, did not want Muslims coming into the country – based on a poll by Essential Research.
I said at the time, in several interviews (Listen to radio interview with 2SER), that we believed it was highly unlikely that these results were true.  Roy Morgan surveys over several years from 2010 to 2015, showed majority support for Muslims, refugees and others immigrating to Australia. We believed it highly unlikely that sentiment would have changed so dramatically. The latest Roy Morgan Research showed indeed Australians continue to support Muslim Immigration, albeit with a reduced majority.
It is crucial that public opinion surveys on such important issues as this are independent and conducted with a sample which is truly representative of the Australian population.
The increasingly prevalent use of internet surveys using ‘Commercial panels’ of respondents is extraordinarily dangerous. ‘Commercial panels’ are typically recruited in a variety of ways – opt-in, competitions, acquired email lists etc. The size of the ‘Commercial panel’ can never make up for the unknown and unknowable biases.
We see it as a little like the ‘sub-prime’ fiasco in the US that was at the heart of the Global Financial Crisis. Combining large quantities of ‘high risk’ mortgages into packages and re-labelling them didn’t make them any less risky.
When it comes to sampling the Australian population – combining ‘highly skewed’ lists of people doesn’t magically create a representative sample representing a cross-section of Australians.
Roy Morgan conducted this latest survey, and previous waves of the research, at our own cost because we believe it is important the people of Australia are accurately represented on an issue of such social, human and moral importance.
Click here to see the full results of the latest Roy Morgan survey on attitudes to immigration and population.

Roy Morgan Research, 25 October 2016:

Muslim Immigration

Support for Muslim immigration is down 7% from a year ago (65% support in October 2015), although it is up 4% from July 2010 (54% support).

Importantly, a majority of L-NP supporters (51% support cf. 36% oppose), ALP supporters (67% support cf. 25% oppose), Greens supporters (88% support cf. 5% oppose) and supporters of Independents/ Others (58% support cf. 34% oppose) all support Muslim immigration.

However, the overwhelming majority of One Nation supporters are opposed to Muslim immigration (87% opposed cf. 4% support).

Immigration Levels & Population

Now 40% (up 3%) of Australians support immigration remaining about the same and a further 21% (down 11%) want to see immigration levels increased; this constitutes a clear majority of Australians 61% (down 8%) who support immigration remaining the same or increasing while 34% (up 8%) want immigration levels reduced and 5% (unchanged) can’t say.

Australians are split on the effect of immigrants on Australia’s culture and way of life: However, there has been a negative shift in the last year – back to lower than recorded in 2010. 32% (down 5%) of Australians believe immigration has a positive effect on Australia; 32% (up 1%) believe immigration has a negative effect while 25% (up 6%) believe immigration has little effect and 11% (down 2%) can’t say.

Most Australians want relatively moderate population growth – 34% (up 2%) want a population under 30 million in 2046, and only 24% (down 6%) want a population of 35 million or more. This is a shift away from growth levels that were seen as acceptable a year ago – but nowhere near the 2010 levels when 56% wanted a population under 30 million in the year 2040.

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