Day 11 and the vote count continues......

It's 72 all, it's 72-73 in the Coalition's favour, it's 71-73 with one still in doubt, he's up she's down - everyday brings a reassessment of the possible election result.

Here is the official Australian Election Commission tally at the beginning of Day 11 of the ballot count:

Click on images to enlarge

As of 9.56pm last night 84.90% of the primary vote has been counted and, the two party preferred count was 80.63% complete.

Main players get impatient for final tally in 2010 Australian Federal Election

Virtual Tally Room at 6pm on 27 August 2010
Click on image to enlarge

The Denison electorate in Tasmania is one of those polling anomalies where the bulk of first preference votes clearly got to one candidate (in the this case Labor) but following preferences are expected to flow in large numbers to a second candidate (in this case an Independent).

Today the Australian Electoral Commission staff and candidates scruntineers are counting Denison preferences in this electorate according to an 27 August 2010 AEC media release.

It would appear that all the main players in the national hung parliament scenario are becoming a mite impatient and would like Andrew Wilkie's position clarified asap.

The Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) announced today that a preliminary distribution of preferences will occur in the electorate of Denison (Tasmania) this Saturday, 28 August.

State Manager and Australian Electoral Officer for Tasmania, Sandra Riordan said the decision to conduct a provisional scrutiny at this earlier stage in the count was to assist in providing some early certainty of the closely contested result of the 2010 federal election for the Electoral Division of Denison.

The provisional scrutiny on Saturday will be conducted on all available ballot papers that have been fully rechecked for the electorate of Denison, and will include all votes cast at polling places on election day, and all early votes that have been processed to date.

Following completion of the provisional scrutiny a further media release will be issued and available on the AEC website.

A provisional scrutiny involves a full distribution of preferences on the ballot papers, and scrutineers are able to be present during the count. The first distribution reallocates the votes of the candidate with the fewest first preferences to the next available candidate. Following that distribution, the votes of the candidate with the next fewest votes will be reallocated to the remaining available candidates. Finally the votes of the candidate that then has the fewest votes remaining will be reallocated. After that third distribution it is expected that the leading candidate, and consequently the likely result of the election, will become clear.

For more information on the counting of votes in the 2010 federal election, visit the virtual tally room.

AEC running vote tally now 71 all on morning of 26 August 2010

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From the AEC Virtual Tally Room as of 4am on Thursday 26 August 2010:
Currently 79.78% of the primary vote has been counted.
The two party preferred count is 76.87% complete.
At this stage the Coalition is thought to have 71 seats, Labor 71 seats, Independents 4 seats and 3 seats are still considered doubtful.


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From the ABC Australia Votes 2010 website as of 4.30am 26 August 2010

Official Australian Election vote count at last running tally 7am 22 August 2010

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Australian Electoral Commission Virtual Tally Room:

Across Australia 14,088,260 electors enrolled to vote.
Currently 77.85% of the primary vote has been counted.
The two party preferred count is 74.71% complete.
The election results were last updated at 22/08/2010 7:34:29 AM.

Number and age of everyone who now gets to vote on 21 August 2010

As a result of the recent High Court Decision (6 August) to extend the period for enrolling to vote in the federal election to 8pm 26 July 2010, the revised total number enrolled to vote is 14,088,260.
This compares to a previous total of 14,030,528 prior the Decision, representing an increase of 57,732 voters. A further 40,408 voters had their existing enrolment details updated.
Overall, 143,728 net additions to the electoral roll have occurred since the announcement of the 2010 federal election. A net total of 443,187 electors have been added to the roll since the close of rolls for the 2007 federal election, when 13,645,073 were enrolled to vote.

Click on image to enlarge

AEC XLS file of age and gender by actual electorate.

Sophie's digital pen rulz on polling day!

Australian Electoral Commission media release:

13 August 2010

The Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) acknowledges the Federal Court Decision today that a claim for enrolment by Ms Sophie Trevitt meets the purposes of s102(1)(b) of the Commonwealth Electoral Act.

The AEC has therefore added Ms Trevitt to the electoral roll this afternoon and she will be entitled to vote in the federal election.

The AEC notes that the particular methodology used by Ms Trevitt in her online completion of an enrolment form was a digital pen on a trackpad for the purposes of providing a signature.

His Honour Perram J stated in his judgement (Getup Ltd v Electoral Commissioner 2010 FCA 869) today:

"22. Granted then that faxing and emailing a JPEG files satisfies, for the Commissioner's purposes, the requirements of s10(1)(b), it must follow, and I find, that the signature tool and the Ozenrol site likewise satisfy that provision."

After the federal election the AEC will need to discuss the Decision with the Electoral Council of Australia, a body that includes the Electoral Commissioner and his Joint Roll Partners (State Electoral Commissions) to ensure that the methodology is appropriate for all enrolment purposes across the three tiers of government.

The AEC also will discuss the judgement and associated roll issues with the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters in the next Parliament.

The AEC notes that GetUP Ltd publicly launched their Ozenrol portal on the day before the announcement of the election and withdrew it on day of announcement. The AEC does not have figures on any other attempted enrolments during this period.

The AEC also notes that another prospective claimant in this case to the Federal Court, Mr Steven Hind, sought to update his details using Ozenrol site but did not pursue his claims.

Mr Hind's case, however, quite apart from the deliberations of the Court were accepted by the AEC. Mr Hind used the Ozenrol site in making his claim for enrolment and did not provide a signature but was able to take advantage of the recent passage through the Parliament of the Electoral and Referendum Amendment (Pre-poll Voting and Other Measures) Act 2010 and the commencement of Schedule 2 to that Act on 19 July 2010. These new measures allow online update of a pre-existing federal enrolment.

Wondering if you may now be able to vote on 21 August? See this Statement from the Australian Electoral Commission on High Court Decision

Wondering if yesterday's High Court of Australia judgment means that you can now vote even if you missed the 19 July close of rolls deadline?

This 6 August 2010 AEC media release explains the position:

The Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) acknowledges today's High Court decision that allows additional eligible voters to now be entitled to vote in the 2010 federal election. Voters affected are those who submitted correctly completed claims for enrolment after 8pm on Monday 19 July but before 8pm on Monday 26 July.
The AEC will process these additional enrolment claims in coming days and attempt to contact all electors concerned to advise they are entitled to vote and how to obtain further assistance if needed.
The voter lists, used in polling places to mark off those who have voted, for the 2010 election have already been printed and distributed, so it is too late to include these voters on these lists.
This means that voters affected by today's decision who attend a polling place on election day (or early voting centre) will have to cast a declaration vote and provide an accepted form of evidence of identity. The AEC therefore urges those electors to carry their driver's licence or other accepted form of identity with them when voting to easily meet these requirements (list below).
The AEC will provide further advice once it has studied the full detail of the High Court's decision.

Acceptable documents
01 Australian driver licence
02 Birth Certificate, or an extract (must be Australian and issued at least 5 years ago)
03 Certificate of Australian citizenship
04 Concession Card from Centrelink (must be current)
05 Concession Card from the Department of Veterans' Affairs (must be current)
06 Credit or bank account card (must be current)
07 Defence force, Australian discharge document
08 Divorce documents from the Family Court of Australia
09 Employee identification card (must be current with a photograph and signature)
10 Firearm's licence (must be current with a photograph and signature)
11 Justice of the Peace appointment document (must be Australian)
12 Marriage Certificate (must be registered in Australia)
13 Medicare card
14 Passport (must be Australian and current)
15 Proof of age card issued by, or under the authority of, a state or territory government
16 Security guard/crowd control licence (must be current)
17 Student identification card (must be current with a photograph)
Note: Provisional New Citizens must provide their Certificate of Australian citizenship.

Media contact
Phil Diak
Director, Media and Communication Strategy
Canberra
02 6271 4415 0413 452 539

High Court judgment bitchslaps Abbott

In 2006 an arrogant John Winston Howard and an increasingly despotic Coalition Government passed legislation limiting an Australian citizen's right to vote by closing the Commonwealth electoral roll on the same day election writs were issued.

This was Tony Abbott (then a Howard Goverment minister and Leader of the House) back in 2006 on the subject:
Another of the accusations hurled at us by the Leader of the Opposition was the ludicrous suggestion that we are in some way stripping young people of their right to vote.

In June 2010 the Rudd-Gillard Government attempted to introduce legislation which would rollback sections of electoral law to a pre-Howard era when citizens' rights were intact.

In that same June Tony Abbott's Coalition voted against the Electoral and Referendum Amendment (Close of Rolls and Other Measures) Bill 2010 in the Lower House and seems to have sent the bill to limbo in the Upper House.

This is what Liberal MP and Shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey had to say concerning the Labor Government's 2010 bill:

The amendments in this bill that relate to the closing of rolls seven days after the writs are issued will be opposed by the coalition. The previous government, in line with longstanding policy, moved to protect the integrity of the roll and prevent fraudulent enrolments by reducing the time period between the calling of an election and the closing of rolls. The closure of the rolls seven days after the issue of a writ is a significant threat to the integrity of the electoral roll.

This is what Liberal MP Andrew Robb later parroted:
On the close of rolls, the fundamental point is this: the closure of the rolls seven days after the issue of a writ is a significant threat to the integrity of the electoral roll. The previous coalition government, in line with longstanding policy, moved to protect the integrity of the roll and prevent fraudulent enrolments by reducing the time period between the calling of an election and the close of the rolls.

While Liberal MP Cory Bernardi chimed in with:
I consider the closure of the rolls seven days after the issue of a writ to be a threat to the very integrity of the electoral roll.

However, many ordinary Australians did not agree with that neo-con bloc and today the GetUp! challenge of those Howard electoral law amendments was successful and Abbott received the considered rebuff he deserved from the full bench of the High Court.

Media Release - Manager, Public Information, High Court of Australia:

HIGH COURT OF AUSTRALIA

6 August 2010

ROWE & ANOR v ELECTORAL COMMISSIONER & ANOR

On 26 July 2010, proceedings were commenced in the Melbourne Registry of the Court seeking a declaration that certain provisions of the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 (Cth) effecting cut-off dates for consideration of applications for enrolment and transfers of enrolment as an elector are invalid. One of those provisions, s 102(4), prevents the Electoral Commissioner from considering claims for enrolment lodged after 8 pm on the date of the issue of writs for an election for the House of Representatives or the Senate until after the close of polling. Another provision, s 102( 4AA), prevents consideration of claims for transfer of enrolment from one divisional roll to another from 8 pm on the date of the close of the rolls for an election until after the close of polling. A third provision, s 155, provides that the rolls close on the third working day after the date of the writs.

The challenged provisions had been introduced into the Commonwealth Electoral Act by the Electoral and Referendum Amendment (Electoral Integrity and Other Measures) Act 2006 (Cth) ("the Amendment Act").

The application for the declaration and for writs of mandamus was referred to the Full Court by Justice Hayne on 29 July 2010 and argument on the application was heard by the Full Court on 4 and 5 August 2010. The application was amended at the hearing so that the declaration sought related to the validity of some other provisions of the Amendment Act.

Today the Court by majority declared that provisions of the Amendment Act which introduced the challenged provisions into the Commonwealth Electoral Act are invalid. The declaration also covered certain consequential amendments made by the Amendment Act including other provisions effecting cut-off dates relating to the enrolment of persons living outside Australia (s 94A(4)(a» and itinerant electors (s 96(4», and the eligibility of spouses, de facto partners or children of eligible overseas electors for enrolment (s 95(4».

The orders of the Court were:

1. Declare that Items 20, 24, 28, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45 and 52 of Sched 1 to the Electoral and Referendum Amendment (Electoral Integrity and Other Measures) Act 2006 (Cth) are invalid.

2. The second defendant to pay the plaintiffs' costs of the Further Amended Application for an Order to Show Cause.

The Court will publish its reasons for decision at a later date.

• This statement is not intended to be a substitute for the reasons of the High Court or to be used in any later consideration of the Court's reasons.

* Bitchslap: To slap someone (particularly but not necessarily female) who is being rude or nasty, perhaps screaming a lot (i.e., being a bitch). The idea is to get them to calm down and behave. It doesn't necessarily mean you really hit the person; there is such a thing as a verbal bitchslap OR The literal and/or metaphoric slapping or whacking someone in order to knock some sense into them.

New political parties seeking registration this month and how you can object

The Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) has advertised the following applications for registration as a non-parliamentary party under the provisions of the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 (the Electoral Act).
Knock yourself out objecting to any or all of them. Starting with the T(I)CS!

___________________________

Name of Party: Secular Party of Australia
Abbreviation of party name: No abbreviation requested
Proposed registered officer: John August
Address: 12/225 Darlinghurst Road
DARLINGURST NSW 2010

___________________________

Name of Party: Australia First Party (NSW) Incorporated
Abbreviation of party name: Australia First Party
Proposed registered officer: Anthony Pettitt
Address: 165 Garfield Road
RIVERSTONE NSW 2765

___________________________

Name of Party: Building Australia Party
Abbreviation of party name: Building Australia
Proposed registered officer: Raymond Robert Stanton Brown
Address: 5 Windarra Place
CASTLE HILL NSW 2154

___________________________

Name of Party: The Climate Sceptics
Abbreviation of party name: T.C.S
Proposed registered officer: Anthony Kenneth Cox
Address: 51 Lawson Street
HAMILTON NSW 2303

___________________________

"The above applications have been made by the secretary and another 9 members of each party and states that the parties wish to receive election funding."

If you believe that any of these parties should not be registered because, under the Electoral Act:

• the party does not meet the eligibility criteria for registration; or

• the party's application has not been correctly made; or

• the party's name and/or abbreviation are prohibited,

you may lodge an objection. Objections must be received by the Funding and Disclosure Section of the Australian Electoral Commission by 15 June 2010, must be in writing and include your name, street address, signature and the grounds for your objection.

Objections can be sent to the:

Funding and Disclosure Section
Australian Electoral Commission
PO Box 6172
Kingston ACT 2604 or
faxed to (02) 6271 4555 or
scanned and emailed to fad@aec.gov.au

For more detailed information on objecting to an application for the registration of a political party, please consult the AEC website at the following link, or contact the AEC by fax or email as above, or by phone on (02) 6271 4667.

Australian Federal Election 2010: So who thinks neither rule nor law applies to him?

What's wrong with the pictured letter and attachments?
These three documents (letter, flyer and petition sheet) came in the same envelope - as part of a bulk mailout by the Nationals Federal Member for Cowper sent to voters in the neighbouring seat of Page which held by a member of the Rudd Government.
Worked it out yet?
I'm sure many of you are already starting to count the (ahem) breaches.....

Small hint; The entitlement must only be used for parliamentary or electorate purposes, and must not be used for: (a) party business and As of 1 October 2009, Senators and Members have had the option to submit a print ready copy of material proposed to be printed using their printing and communications entitlement for vetting by the Department of Finance and Deregulation. As part of the vetting process, Finance will assess the print ready copy against the parameters of the printing and communications entitlement, and Senators and Members will receive written advice on whether or not the item is within entitlement. and The AEC takes the view that the election period for these purposes will - at minimum - be the period from the announcement of the election or the issue of the writs (whichever is the earlier) to the close of polling on election day. However, in circumstances where there is considerable speculation surrounding a possible election, the AEC may consider that the election period has commenced, notwithstanding that there has been no announcement or issuing of the writs.

Seems Luke Hartsuyker MP didn't bother to consider his actions against current policy, rules or law and that's not his only problem, even if his spokesperson 'appears' not to understand when questioned by the media.

Click on images to enlarge

Name and address of recipient redacted from letter

Who's searching for whom on the Australian political scene as we enter the mother of all election periods

Over the next eighteen months Australians will go to the polls across Australia to elect a Federal Government (probably in 2010 but by April 2011 at the latest) and electors will be voting at state level in South Australia (March 2010), Tasmania (May 2010 at latest), Victoria (November 2010), and New South Wales (March 2011).

According to the Australian Elections Timetable the Northern Territory won't hold a state election until August 2012, the Australian Capital Territory is next at the polls in October 2012, West Australia does not have to hold an election before June 2012 at the earliest and Queensland does not go have to go to the polls until June 2012.

All in all, somewhere in the country voters will be having campaign spin forced down their throats (with varying degrees of resistance) for some time to come.

Google Trends comparison of Internet searches for Leaders of Government and their Opposition counterparts - Kevin Rudd & Tony Abbott (Federal), Anna Bligh & John-Paul Langbroek (QLD), Mike Rann & Isobel Redmond (SA), David Bartlett & Will Hodgman (TAS), John Brumby & Ted Ballieu (VIC), Colin Barnett & Eric Ripper (WA), John Stanhope & Zed Seselja (ACT), Paul Henderson & Terry Mills (NT) and Kristina Keneally & Barry O'Farrell (NSW).

Langbroek, Redmond, Hodgman, Ballieu, Ripper, Selselja, Mills and O'Farrell all rate low on a search query scale at home or overseas, but although still battling against an incumbent with a higher profile Tony Abbott tracks fairly steadily against the Prime Minister Kevin Rudd and interest in him has shown a spike since he became Leader of the Opposition.

Only in Tasmania and the ACT did there appear to be sustained and vaguely comparable levels of search term disinterest in both government and opposition leaders.

It will be interesting to see if how these politicians trend on the Internet bore any relation to how they fared at the next elections.

NSW Electoral Commission changes its mind and Page electorate loses voter numbers

From a 23 October 2009 Australian Electoral Commission media release:

The augmented Electoral Commission for New South Wales today announced the outcome of the deliberations on the boundaries and names of the 48 federal electoral divisions in New South Wales, in accordance with a requirement of the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918.
The presiding member of the augmented Electoral Commission for New South Wales, the Hon. Peter Heerey QC, said that it had adopted the proposal of the Redistribution Committee for New South Wales, published on 7 August 2009, with some changes.
The augmented Electoral Commission considers that its proposal is not significantly different from that proposed by the Redistribution Committee. Therefore, a further objection period and further hearing are not required.
The formal determination of the boundaries and names of the electoral divisions will be gazetted on 22 December 2009.

This means that the NSW North Coast Page electorate currently held by Federal Labor MP, Janelle Saffin, will shrink back from its originally proposed new boundaries.

The Poll Bludger gives more details in the post Redraw redrawn.

Click on map to enlarge

Tingle, Smith and Borsak think a name change will make the Australian Shooters Party more palatable to the electorate?

The Australian Electoral Commission has announced that The Australian Shooters Party now has a new name - Shooters and Fishers Party or just plain Shooters and Fishers for short.

If I remember correctly, at the 2007 federal election this party received less than one per cent of votes cast and it has certainly been on the nose recently due to the conduct of Robert Borsak in New South Wales.

When it comes to hunting, elephants would have to up there with the whales as iconic untouchables for many Australian voters and the overseas hunting trips taken by Borsak almost guarantees a poor voter turnout if he stands at the next federal election.

I suspect that this has something to do with the name change and attempt to widen its base - but I don't think Tingle, Smith or Borsak remember the old adage of a leopard and its spots.

Proposed 2009 NSW electoral boundary changes

Image from AEC 2009 Report of the Redistribution Committee - Maps

Click on image to enlarge

The Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) has released its 2009 Report of the Redistribution Committee outlining proposed New South Wales electoral redistribution.

Here on the NSW North Coast the AEC proposal is to leave Richmond electorate unchanged, reduce the total number of electors in Cowper by 256, with the Page electorate picking up these 256 Elland voters as well as 1,094 voters in the area north-east of Amosfield, Sandy Hills and Ewingar State Forest in Tenterfield LGA from the Division of New England .

Lyne electorate will see the entire Gloucester Local Government Area transferred into its boundaries but otherwise remain unchanged.

UPDATE:

Antony Green's summary of proposed redistribution outcomes - NSW North Coast

Cowper
Held by Luke Hartsuyker
Very minor boundary adjustment with Page.
Old Margin National 1.2%
New Margin National 1.2%

Lyne
Held by Rob Oakeshott
Won by Independent Rob Oakeshott at a 2008 by-election. At the 2007 election, Lyne was won by the National Party with a margin of 8.6%. Gains Gloucester from Paterson.
Old Margin Independent held
New Margin Independent held

Page
Held by Janelle Saffin
Only minor boundary changes with the transfer of areas around Drake from New England.
Old Margin Labor 2.4%
New Margin Labor 2.2%

Richmond
Held by Justine Elliot
Unchanged.
Old Margin Labor 8.9%
New Margin Labor 8.9%

Nationals desperate to erode Saffin's Northern Rivers electoral base?

Out of federal government and obviously hurting, the National Party of Australia is rumoured to be making a concerted effort to undermine Labor's sitting Federal MP for Page, Janelle Saffin.

To that end the Nationals have suggested to the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) that it undertake a little tidying up of the current boundaries between Page and Cowper which is currently held by Nationals MP Luke Hartsuyker.

It is no accident that the town it wants to tidy up into Cowper is Yamba, which co-incidentally strongly supported Saffin at the 2007 election and predominately voted Labor consistently over the last few state and federal elections.

The exchange the Nationals are suggesting to compensate for Yamba's removal is to include in the Page electorate a couple of areas with what are believed to have traditional Nationals profiles.

The Nationals seem to believe that Luke Hartsuyker would easily win over Yamba hearts and minds if Yamba voters were to find themselves in his electorate at the next federal election and, that Janelle Saffin would find it difficult to maintain her seat in light of such a voter loss.

It is interesting to note that the Liberal Party submission proposes no changes to the electoral boundaries of Cowper, Page and Richmond. This flies directly in the face of the Nationals wish list for the NSW North Coast.

Unsurprisingly the Labor Party's counter move, to the Nationals attempt to place more Nationals-leaning areas in Page, is to lobby for Maclean to be removed from Cowper and placed in the Page electorate.

National Party of Australia submission to the AEC, May 2009
Liberal Party of Australia submission to the AEC, May 2009
Australian Labor Party submission to the AEC, undated
Full list of submissions on proposed 2009 federal electoral boundaries redistribution
Comments on submissions

It's Enrol To Vote Week across Australia from 27 July - 2 August 2009

From Australian Electoral Commission media release on 30 June 2009:

The Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) is encouraging more secondary schools to register for national Enrol to Vote Week to be held from 27 July to 2 August this year.

Electoral Commissioner Ed Killesteyn said over 1550 secondary schools and colleges across Australia had already registered to participate in Enrol to Vote Week and there was still time for other schools to get involved.

"Enrol to Vote Week involves the AEC working in partnership with Australian secondary schools to encourage 17- and 18-year-old students to enrol to vote."

Mr Killesteyn said Enrol to Vote Week last year received strong support from over 1700 participating schools, with over 20,000 enrolment forms collected as part of the initiative.

"Currently one in five 18 to 24-year-olds is not enrolled to vote, increasing to around one in two 18-year-olds not enrolled. In addition, many 17-year-olds are not aware that they can enrol now so they are able to vote as soon as they turn 18," he said.

"This year the focus of Enrol to Vote Week is to encourage and assist 17-year-olds to enrol so they are automatically able to vote as soon as they turn 18. Our message is that enrolling to vote is not something you have to wait until you're 18 to do."

Mr Killesteyn said AEC officers would be available for in-school visits during Enrol to Vote Week and would support students in completing their enrolment forms at school.

Schools can register to participate in Enrol to Vote Week 2009 by visiting www.enroltovoteweek.aec.gov.au or by calling 13 23 26 and selecting the Enrol to Vote Week option.

The website has more information about the initiative, as well as a search feature to enable anyone to see which schools in their local community are participating.

Website: http://www.enroltovoteweek.aec.gov.au/
Hotline: 13 23 26 (select the Enrol to Vote Week option)

The hunt is on for 1.2 million 'missing' Australian voters

There are over 1.2 million people in the Australian population who are eligible to vote but who haven't registered with the Australian Electoral Commission according to a recent media release.

Electoral Commissioner, Ed Killesteyn said the AEC was stepping up its efforts to find these missing Australians and encourage them to enrol to vote.
"We are currently sending over 550,000 personally addressed letters across the country to where we think these Australians—about half of those missing from the electoral roll—might be living.
The mail-out package will include an enrolment form and reply paid envelope.

I will be interested to see how this drive to find these 'missing' voters turns out.

Because I can't help wondering just how many are phantoms created by incorrectly spelt names being originally entered into government digital databases.

I once had a digital shadow because one letter was left off my name during an AEC update of the rolls and this caused me no end of problems at the polling booth until it was sorted.

Six Nervous Pollies or Where will NSW lose its next federal electorate in 2009?

In December 2008 Malcolm McKerras predicted that the NSW electorates of Gilmore and Throsby would possibly merge in any 2009 redistribution.
In February 2009 Antony Green is tipping; "Fowler and Macarthur are currently the NSW electorates with the lowest total enrolment and therefore subject to amalgamation, not Gilmore and Throsby. However, if the branch of Sydney Harbour known as Iron Cove is ignored and the boundary viewed as contigous, then any mini-redistribution on current numbers would see Lowe and Sydney amalgamated."
The Australian Electoral Commission has begun the lengthy redistribution process.
So which pollie will have to go?
And does this mean that we have avoided a politically expedient early federal election push by the government of the day or an opposition trying to scare us with the threat of one?