Showing posts with label economy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label economy. Show all posts

Wednesday 1 April 2015

Australian Treasurer Joe Hockey needs to come up with a better argument concerning the federal Goods and Services Tax


David Pope in the Canberra Times, 30 March 2015

Brisbane Times 30 March 2015:

Treasurer Joe Hockey says Australian consumers have changed their behaviour so much in recent years, through online shopping and choosing more GST-exempt goods, that they are putting pressure on the GST as a revenue-raiser.

Apparently Joe Hockey is upset that this consumption tax raised $47.4 billion in 2012-13, $50.7 billion in 2013-14 and, is expected to raise $53.7 billion this financial year, $57 billion in 2015-16, $60.4 billion in 2016-17 and another $63.8 in $2017-18.

That’s not good enough for our millionaire Liberal treasurer.

It appears he is rather perturbed that people are still buying GST-exempt basic fresh food, simple dairy products and unprocessed cooking ingredients in their local shops or purchasing online second-hand, handmade or other goods worth less than $1,000.

This is the rather weak excuse he is offering for encouraging the states to believe there should be more in the federal Goods & Services Tax kitty.

The GST is a regressive tax when applied to low income households and no amount of vague talk in the mainstream media about possible ‘compensation’ for pensioners will change that.

Friday 13 February 2015

TRUST: no respite for Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott


Peter Martin, Economics Editor at The Age, blogging it like it is on 10 February 2015:

As Abbott brought forward the timing of the leadership vote on Sunday his supporter and finance minister Mathias Cormann told the ABC the economy was "heading in the right direction".

He wanted "to build on the achievements we made in 2014".

Take a moment to consider the achievements and the direction in which things are heading.

That year began with a quarterly rate of economic growth of 1 per cent. After the budget it slid to 0.5 per cent, and then to 0.3 per cent. It's falling, rather than rising.
The direction is down….

The Reserve Bank made its view about economic growth clear on Tuesday. Here's what it said when it cut rates an hour or two before its governor briefed Cormann and others in cabinet:

"In Australia the available information suggests that growth is continuing at a below-trend pace, with domestic demand growth overall quite weak."

It's weak and it's bleak. It isn't heading "in the right direction".

Looking ahead the Reserve Bank expects growth to remain "a little below trend for somewhat longer, and the rate of unemployment peak a little higher, than earlier expected."

Unemployment has climbed from a quarterly rate of 5.3 per cent at the end of 2012 to 5.8 per cent at the end of 2013 to 6.2 per cent at the end of 2014. We get the first figures for 2015 on Thursday.

The direction is undeniably clear, but it's not the right one. Unemployment is worse than it was at the peak of the global financial crisis. The Reserve Bank expects it to get worse still...

Hockey and Cormann will tell you that while unemployment is growing, employment is too. But it's not, really. The number of hours worked per month grew barely at all throughout 2014. More people may have been employed at the end of the year than the start but on average they've been working less, some shifting to part-time work and others to fewer hours of full-time work. Disturbingly, the Reserve Bank says the number of hours worked per month has scarcely changed since December 2011 despite three years of population growth.

None of these facts would surprise anyone in business or anyone looking for a job. What would surprise them would be to hear from the team at the top that things are "heading in the right direction". It would make them think they were being lied to….

Joe Hockey's first budget was far worse than it seemed on the night in part because he didn't tell us the truth about it on the night. The usual calculations showing the households that won or lost were missing.  The treasury had prepared them as usual, the treasurer withheld them.

And he made up stuff. He said treasury had told him that fuel excise was "a progressive tax". It hadn't. He said the poorest Australians "either don't have cars or actually don't drive very far in many cases," something many of them know to be untrue. Petrol takes up a much bigger share of a low-income budgets than high-income budgets.  

He said his own wealthy electorate of North Sydney had "one of the highest bulk-billing rates in Australia". It had one of the very lowest in all of Sydney. He said "higher income households pay half their income in tax". They pay nothing like half. Even those on $200,000 pay just 36 per cent. Back from his holidays this January he revived the claim and went further saying typical Australians pay nearly half their income in tax.

"When Australians spend the first six months of the year working for the government with tax rates nearly 50 cents in the dollar it is a disincentive. You're working July, August, September, October, November, December just for the government and then you start working for yourself and your own household income after that for another six months, he said.

But Australia's tax-to-GDP ratio is around 30 per cent, including account all taxes, state and federal. It simply can't be the case that typical Australians pay nearly half their income in tax. They don't.

And exaggerated claims have eaten away at trust. Hockey said Australia was on track to run out of money to pay for its health, welfare and education systems. The figures put forward by his then health minister suggested otherwise. In ten years the cost of Medicare had climbed 124 per cent, the cost of the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme 90 per cent and the cost of public hospitals 83 per cent. But Australia's gross domestic product - the money we would use to pay for these things - climbed 94 per cent.

The government tells us it's concerned about future generations, but won't release the treasury's intergenerational report. It tells us it wants a discussion about tax, but won't release the tax discussion paper finalised late last year.

Without trust we lack confidence. We are neither spending nor investing what we should. Business and consumer confidence has been sliding since September….

The government itself has become an impediment to economic growth…..

Friday 26 September 2014

Abbott Government releases its 2014 Energy Green Paper - prepare to be underwhelmed


The Abbott Government released its Energy Green Paper on 23 September 2014.

The document sketchily mentions renewable energy or forms of renewable energy a total of 134 times within its 92 pages, while mentioning conventional gas/unconventional gas a total of 434 times, coal 100 times and exports 131 times.

Readers who care about Australia's sustainable energy future move onto the body this paper at their own risk.......

Wednesday 18 December 2013

Abbott Government Mid-Year Economic & Fiscal Outlook 2013-14: no responsibility taken, excuses scattered like confetti, strong hints that it's the poor who will be paying the government bill



Australian Treasurer Joe Hockey needs to grow a spine, find a political and social conscience and begin acting like an adult before he loses the nation's excellent credit rating, drives away investment, destroys industry and causes a recession with his juvenile point-scoring and loose talk.

Taking responsibility for his first 90 days in office (not the fictional 100 days) would be a good start.

On 3 September 2013 Australian Treasurer Joe Hockey stated that the Federal Labor Government was borrowing an average $83 million per day.

By 17 December 2013 the Federal Liberal-Nationals Coalition Government was borrowing on average an est. $216 million plus per day.

In the MID-YEAR ECONOMIC AND FISCAL OUTLOOK 2013-14 (MYEFO) released on 17 December 2013 Hockey admits that an increase in Abbott Government borrowings has increased Australia’s national debt:

* The increase in the expected level of net debt since the 2013 PEFO primarily reflects a higher issuance of CGS owing to an increase in the financing requirement, which is partly negated by higher yields (interest rates) than were assumed at the 2013 PEFO.

* The main factor contributing to the increase in net debt is the higher expected issuance of CGS relative to the 2013 PEFO of around $60 billion in face value terms as a result of the increased financing requirement. This is partially offset by revaluation of the projected CGS on issue of around $9 billion owing to an increase in expected yields and hence a decrease in the market value of CGS.

According to Hockey net government debt now stands at $191.5 billion in 2013-14.

Gross debt is of course higher and currently is in excess of $304.5 billion – with $216 billion of this amount being added to the total by the present Abbott Government between 18 September and 17 December 2013.

Impacting MYEFO is the inescapable fact that the Abbott Government has increased federal government spending over that outlined in its pre-election Fiscal Budget Impact of Federal Coalition Policies document, which in its turn also indicated levels of revenue which the Coalition was willing to forgo to meet its ideological requirements.

Some of the more significant components of the revenue write down apparent in MYEFO are ideologically rather than fiscally based.

The biggest one-off spending item in 2013-14 was the unplanned $8.8 billion it gifted to the Reserve Bank, a sum which coincidentally comprises over half of the budget deficit blow-out Hockey is complaining about.

Again according to Hockey, since the Economic Statement released in August 2013 the budget deficit has blown out from the predicted $30.1 billion 2013-14 deficit under Labor to a  $47 billion deficit this year under the Abbott Government.  That's a $16.9 billion difference in the bottom line primarily flowing on from Coalition policy and/or economic decisions.

However, the average voter wouldn't know it from Hockey's blaming Labor rhetoric.

BACKGROUND

The Pre-Election Economic Fiscal Outlook (PEFO) produced in August by The Treasury, for the information of all political parties and candidates prior to the 7 September 2013 election day.

MEDIA REACTION

The Sydney Morning Herald 17 December 2013:

How on Earth did we convince ourselves this bunch would be miles better at fixing the budget than the last lot?
Joe Hockey claims his midyear budget update is an honest assessment of the state of fiscal affairs he inherited from Labor. It isn't.
Rather, it is an attempt to lower expectations about the speed and ease with which the Coalition will be able to get the budget back on track.
He won't be able to achieve it for many years - he's not saying when - and not without significant and painful, but as yet unidentified, cuts in government spending. In short, he is unlikely to be able to do it much faster than Labor would have. What's likely to differ is who will bear most pain.
Labor would have erred in the direction of higher taxes, particularly on the better-off. Hockey has ruled out higher taxes and is hinting at cuts in government spending on ''welfare, education and health''.
Contrast this grim slog with all the Coalition said in opposition about the deficit being purely the result of Labor mismanagement.
This time last year Tony Abbott and Hockey were promising to deliver a budget surplus in each year of their first term. By the election campaign the return to surplus had been delayed until the first year after the next election.
Now even that is in doubt....



The Australian 18 December 2013:

JOE Hockey now has to stand up.
After gaslighting the Australian public for weeks about Labor's mess, the Treasurer has produced a horror outlook for the economy complete with the potential for a decade of deficits and a Devil's debt number of $666 billion.
Slowing growth, rising unemployment, a further decline in tax revenue and a sharper drop in mining investment are all wider economic challenges facing an Abbott government wedged between curtailing government spending and maintaining consumer and business confidence in the face of growing uncertainty. Without drastic action, the Treasurer has warned of ongoing budget deficits, rising debt and no chance of an income tax cut for 10 years....
But, having laid the blame himself with Labor, even allowing for the Coalition's own responsibility for part of the post-election deficit blowout, Hockey has to accept that he has indeed "drawn a line in the sand".
He must start providing solutions, no matter how tough....


Thursday 5 December 2013

Abbott Government debt


On 4 December 2013 Australian Treasurer Joe Hockey announced that; The Government has today agreed to the Australian Greens’ proposal to repeal the statutory debt limit and enhance transparency around government debt reporting. 

On 4 December Abbott Government borrowings were averaging in excess of $203 million a day.

Now the fiscal brakes have been removed from Hockey's little red treasury wagon, I wonder how much further into debt he will drive the Commonwealth.

Sunday 17 November 2013

Federal Treasurer Joe Hockey in danger of becoming a walking talking sovereign risk



The current national government debt ceiling is $300 billion and, on 13 November 2013 the House of Representatives passed the Commonwealth Inscribed Stock Amendment Bill 2013 increasing the Treasurer’s standing borrowing authority in the Commonwealth Inscribed Stock Act from $300 billion to $500 billion. Subsequently the Senate sent the bill back down with the amount amended to $400 billion.

It doesn’t take a genius to realize that Australia’s national debt is not going to grow beyond $400 billion before mid-2016, if the Abbott Government is as good a financial manager as it promised it would be.

At present government borrowings stand at an estimated $292 billion, with $22 billion of that being borrowed by the Abbott Government since 18 September 2013.

Since the Senate acted, Treasurer Joe Hockey has been publicly threatening a Tea Party-style hissy fit which would allow government services to stop and to bring about “massive cuts” if Labor does not support the Coalition's bill to raise the debt ceiling.

Mr. Hockey apparently finds nothing amiss in making threats which have the potential to damage Australia’s reputation.
If he keeps on in this manner foreign/domestic investors, business and consumers may react negatively.

If this happens Mr. Hockey will have become a walking sovereign risk and cost the economy many billions of dollars.

As the Business Spectator opined on 15 November:

The national interest, however, would be better served by Hockey getting out of campaign mode and into governing mode. Asking for more debt next year would be a minor political embarrassment (and let’s not forget that it most likely won’t be needed), but in the meantime we would look less that the scared kid of Asia hiding under the stairs. 
That Mr. Hockey’s ego-driven threats are hypocritical and a political ploy can be clearly seen when one looks back to May 2012, when the former Labor Government announced its intention to raise the debt ceiling from $250 billion to $300 billion the Coalition was not happy and attempted to block this increase:

If you do raise the debt ceiling, you have a rather large train rolling off the edge of a rather large cliff. [(Leader of the Nationals in the Senate and Member of the Opposition’s Shadow Ministry Barnaby Joyce, Financial Review, 14 May 2012]

Now they are saying they are living within their means but are also saying, 'Just in case, please give us an increase in the credit card limit to $300 billion.' It does not sound like a lot if you say it quickly but it is a hell of a lot of money that Australians have to repay. Enough is enough....
The government must appropriately reflect the significance of increasing the limit on the face value of stock and securities that can be on issue under the Treasurer's standard borrowing authority. The Treasurer must then make the case to the Australian people that Labor deserves the right to increase the credit card limit. The Treasurer must explain why he cannot use the Loan (Temporary Revenue Deficits) Act 1953. I asked him a question in this place. He could not answer it. So, to that effect, and I move the following second reading amendment:
That all words after “That” be omitted with a view to substituting the following words: “whilst not declining to give the bill a second reading, the House requests the Government to vary the resolution in relation to the Appropriation bills agreed by the House on 8 May 2012 to permit amendments to be moved and debated to Appropriation Bill (No. 2) 2012-13.”
This is the very least that the public deserves......
We will quiz the AOFM and the Department of the Treasury at estimates. We want to get to the bottom of exactly why this sneaky government is trying to avoid proper scrutiny on the debt limit. [Liberal MP and Shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey, Hansard, 21 May 2012]

Acting Prime Minister, does  the government view the increase in the nation's credit card limit from $250 billion to $300 billion as a very serious issue or no big
deal?...
This is a budget with the debt issue, this increase in debt from $250 billion to $300 billion debt ceiling.... [Liberal MP and Shadow Minister for Finance, Deregulation and Debt Reduction Andrew Robb, Hansard, 21 May 2013] 

Joe Hockey's current belligerence is also a far cry from his attitude just five days after the federal election when he told voters: You can go forward and spend your hearts out because we're going to have a good Christmas

* Photograph found at Google Images

Sunday 1 September 2013

Coalition Policies and the Environment



In the election campaign both major parties are short-changing the environment but by far the weakest response to environmental issues comes from the Coalition.

The Coalition parties' attitude is encapsulated in a comment made by Nationals leader Warren Truss in an election broadcast – "You don't improve the environment by trashing the economy." Truss and many other politicians miss the point entirely when they speak of the economy and the environment as being separate entities with the economy the central matter. They do not understand that the economy and the human community are subsets of the natural environment.  A healthy economy is dependent ultimately on a healthy environment.

Politicians such as Warren Truss may learn this in the future as the effects of climate change start to impact severely on our way of life – and on the economy.

Truss' comment referred to the carbon tax which he and his Coalition allies have promised to abolish.

While the Coalition officially acknowledges that climate change is a problem, there is still the taint of climate scepticism about some Coalition politicians including the Opposition Leader Tony Abbott.  His climate change is "absolute crap" statement was made some time ago but more recently we have had his disparaging comment about the "invisible substance".

Two major components of the Coalition's Direct Action policy on climate change are planting trees and paying farmers for storing carbon in their soils.  Another more significant one is paying polluters to reduce their emissions rather than making them pay for polluting.  Just how effective an incentive this will be in encouraging polluters to move to a low carbon economy is very doubtful.

There are serious questions about the effectiveness of this policy in meeting the target reductions to which the Coalition committed.  There are also questions about the cost of the scheme.  A recent report commissioned by the independent Climate Commission highlights the problems with the Coalition scheme.

For another view of the recent ALP-Coalition "debate" on Direct Action's likely effectiveness see Politifact   http://www.politifact.com.au/truth-o-meter/statements/2013/aug/20/mark-butler/how-much-direct-action-cost/

Another Coalition policy which has serious implications for the natural environment is the pledge to reduce what developers call "green tape" and to leave much environmental governance to the states.  The idea behind this is to make it easier for business and prevent duplication – naturally something business and industry applauds.  However, removing federal oversight is not in the interests of the natural environment or the broader community.  Consider, for example, what has happened to environmental regulation / environmental protection in NSW under the current state government where, for example,  marine reserve protection has been downgraded, national parks are to be opened up to recreational hunters and land-clearing regulations have been eased.  Giving the states either too much power or sole power on environmental protection is almost certain to be disastrous for the natural environment. 

The Coalition has committed $20 billion to road infrastructure but is ignoring investment in rail which is a much less carbon intensive method of transport.  According to the Australasian Railway Association (quoted in Smoke and mirrors, with no policy on smoke   http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/smoke-and-mirrors-with-no-policy-on-smoke-20130825-2sjoc.html) 14% - 76 million tonnes per year - of Australia's greenhouse emissions are generated by transport.  90 % of these emissions are attributable to road transport and only 2% to rail.  Investment in rail in this carbon-constrained world is sensible policy.  Why is this not obvious to Mr Abbott and his team?

Other policies/announcements which are cause for concern include:

* The scrapping of the Biodiversity Fund (originally $1 billion but which now stands at $600 million) and replacement with a $300 million "Green Army".
* Slashing of the $10 billion renewable energy fund and replacement with a $1 billion solar roofs program. Plans to review and possibly weaken the current renewable energy target.
* A proposal to build up to 100 dams throughout the country.

Simplistic sloganeering has been the hallmark of the Coalition in Opposition.  If they win government, they won't be able to rely on slogans.  Environmental challenges such as biodiversity loss, and particularly preparing Australia for the climate challenge ahead, will test the new government.  The Coalition's policies show that it is ill-prepared to meet that challenge.

Hildegard
Northern Rivers
30 August 2013

* Guest Speak is a North Coast Voices segment allowing serious or satirical comment from NSW Northern Rivers residents. Email ncvguestpeak at gmail dot com dot au to submit comment for consideration.

Thursday 16 May 2013

Post-Budget 2013 reaction on the NSW North Coast? Yawn......

 
After all that pre-Budget heat in the national media over the last few weeks, a quick Google search this morning revealed a surprising level of what might be described as post-Budget apathy here on the NSW North Coast.
 
Two days after the Federal Treasurer’s 2013 Budget Speech the Nationals candidate standing for election in the Page fereal electorate in four months time, Kevin Hogan, had no post up on his Twitter account that even mentioned the budget. While his Facebook entry was barely more than a photo opportunity and a mention of a televised NBN interview. Hogan’s campaign website has one lonely post which merely responds to a pre-Budget Pacific Highway funding newspaper article and he had a brief highway funding quote in local media on 16 May.
 
Luke Hartsuyker, the National’s Federal Member for Cowper, had a single website post on Budget night and nothing else two days later. His Twitter account is still tweetless and the Facebook page carrying his name remains silent.
 
Curiously both men appear to have sent out almost identical media releases, which probably means that there was a Budget night Coalition cheat sheet for sitting MPs and candidates.
 
A point picked up by APN media the day after the Budget speech:
 
 
Similarly Janelle Saffin, Labor’s Federal Member for Page, was very low key post-Budget. With no media releases concerning the Budget posted on her personal web page by the morning of 16 May. Ms. Saffin’s Twitter account and Facebook page also had nothing to say on the subject. However, she was quoted in local media on 16 May concerning health and education measures contained in the 2013 Budget.
 
Labor's Richmond Federal MP Justine Elliot was quoted in The Northern Star as backing the Budget the day after its delivery, but appears to have had nothing to say on the subject on her Facebook site.
 
Matthew Fraser, the Nationals candidate standing in the Richmond electorate at the September federal election, was quoted by APN media the day after the Budget speech and was predictably staying on message allegedly big debt and broken promises. His campaign website has had nothing to say since 10 May. Fraser’s Facebook page links to that APN article and a campaign propaganda site, with one lonely post on alleged overspending.
 
By Wednesday 15 May 2013 ABC North Coast’s Facebook page could barely give ABC News a handful of budget quotes from local residents and the Clarence Valley Rate Payers, Residents & Business Owners had nary a mention of budget issues by Thursday morning.
 
Also on Thursday morning the Rural Doctors Association of Australia had what was essentially a generic response on budget changes to indexation of Medicare Benefits in a brief The Northern Star article and, in the same issue there was a mixed response to health, education, superannuation, housing and cash transfers by two members of the business and community sectors .
 
No local residents appear to have been so hot under the collar on Budget night that they fired off letters to editors in time for inclusion in Northern Rivers newspapers over the last two days and, the main online community newspapers haven’t caught up with the budget details yet.
 
Perhaps tonight’s Budget Reply Speech by Opposition leader Tony Abbott will draw more of a response from voters on the North Coast?

Friday 10 May 2013

The state of the Australian economy confuses the average voter?


It rather beggars belief that so many political commentators have been talking down the Australian economy for the last five years, when overall that same economy has been the envy of the developed world during that same period.

It seems that hardly a week has gone by when somewhere in the national media there hasn’t been a journalist reporting economic doom and gloom, aided and abetted by various Liberal and National Party politicians.

Yet in 2013 gross government debt stands at a comparatively modest $271 billion by international standards and net government debt is estimated at $145 billion to date in Australia as the world’s 12th  largest economy. The nation still has GDP growth, a budget deficit of around 1 per cent of GDP or less, an across the board AAA international credit rating, low inflation, low unemployment and is considered a safe haven for investors.

To say that this disconnect between negatively-coloured reporting and verifiable fact may have led to voter ambivalence is positing the obvious and it can possibly be seen in this survey.

Between Wednesday 1 May and Sunday 5 May 2013 an estimated 1,000+ survey respondents answered questions concerning the Australian economy and, their replies were published as part of the broader Essential Report on 6 May 2013.

These respondents were drawn from among the same 7,000-8,000 people who have been answering this regular Essential Services survey for years.

What is interesting about this latest report is the respondents answers to questions about government debt.

In one question 25% think that Australia’s national debt is higher than other developed countries and 48% think it is lower – 18% think it about the same.

In another 46% think the main reason for Australia’s national debt is that the Government are poor economic managers. 26% think it is due to the world economy and 17% blame the high Australian dollar.

However, in yet another question 39% think that government’s management of the Australian economy compared to how governments in other countries around the world have managed their economies has been good/very good and 32% think it has been poor/very poor.

While the conclusion arrived at in the final question was that 32% trust Wayne Swan more to handle Australia’s economy and 35% trust Joe Hockey more. With those on incomes under $1,000pw favour Wayne Swan 34%/31% while those earning over $1,000pw favour Joe Hockey 37%/32%.

So while the biggest percentage blocs in two questions realized that Australia’s national debt was lower than most other developed countries and considered that the Gillard Government's management of the economy was good to very good in comparison with the rest of the world - at the same time the biggest percentage bloc in another question decided that the federal government’s poor economic management was the root cause of the national debt.

Leading to the untried Opposition Shadow Joe Hockey being seen by three per cent more respondents as being better trusted when it came to handling the Australian economy than Treasurer Wayne Swan and, that 3% looking suspiciously like a group earning over $1,000 per week.

It would appear that five years of relentless negative comment in the media may have left many unable to reconcile political rhetoric with Treasury’s annual economic data and, choosing to believe the former rather than the latter much of the time.

* Graph from ABC News

Tuesday 16 April 2013

I don't know how many times reputable economists have to say it before the Murdoch media will believe it....

 
Here is Stephen Koukoulas at Market Economics trying for the xxxxth time to demonstrate the obvious fact that Australia’s public debt is not at a problematic level:
 
 
Sloan fails to mention in her piece the actual indicators which determine whether a particular level of government debt is a problem or not. These indicators are not opinion or a hunch or a doctrinal Tea Party like fear but simple and observable benchmarks.
Perhaps most important of all of these is the level of government bond yields, or the interest rate that a government pays on its debt. This is a good benchmark on which to judge whether or not government debt is something to be nervous about. In simple terms, if there is too much debt, yields are high. If bond yields are low and the bond market is free of government intervention, there is no fear about government debt.
The Australian 10 year government bond yield is currently around 3.3%, marginally above the record low reached in the middle of 2012. In the last 50 years, there have been only a few months, all of them in the last year, where yields have been lower than they are today. No nervousness here.

Wednesday 10 April 2013

Has the Australian small business community stopped listening to Opposition Leader Tony Abbott's doom and gloom?

 
It would seem that by the first quarter of 2013 Opposition Leader Tony Abbott’s scare tactics may have ceased cutting though when it comes to how people starting new businesses see the economy and their chance of success as they are still registering in high numbers.
 
These are the active Australian Business Numbers in 2013, of which 3,557,412 are individual/sole traders, 1,354,105 are private companies and 513,116 are family partnerships:
 
 
Here are the number of new business numbers registered so far this year, of which 74,574 are individual/sole traders, 24,596 are private companies and 3,578 are family partnerships:  
 
 
This is the number which also registered for the Goods & Services Tax for the first time:
 

Click on tables to enlarge

Tuesday 12 March 2013

Stephen Koukoulas on the subject of Tony Abbott as an economic forecaster


From Market Economics 9 March 2013:
In his Budget reply speech in May last year, Mr Abbott made the following claim:

§  “Madam Deputy Speaker, from an economic perspective, the worst aspect of this year’s budget is that there is no plan for economic growth; nothing whatsoever to promote investment or employment.”

Since that speech was delivered, this has what has happened to growth, investment and jobs:
§  The economy (real GDP) has grown by 1.9% in the three quarters to December 2012. This is an annualised increase of 2.5%.

§  Private sector business investment has risen by 2.5% in the three quarters to December 2012 to be a thumping 70.0% higher than the  level of investment when the Coalition was last in office. The capital expenditure expectations data were, according to Westpac, “robust” with investment likely to rise a stunning 11% in 2013-14 to fresh record highs.

§  Since June 2012, 53,400 jobs have been created, 30,000 of these full-time positions.

Friday 1 February 2013

Liberal Party Lies: What is wrong with this graph?

 
This rather crude graph can be found in the Liberal Party’s Our Plan Real Solutions for all Australians: The direction, values and policy priorities of the next Coalition Government recently released by Leader of the Opposition Tony Abbott.
 
I draw your attention to the fact that the left hand sidebar indicates the rankings are out of one hundred.
 
 
However, the World Economic Forum’s The Global Competitiveness Report 2012–2013 clearly shows that the ranking is out of one hundred and forty-four (up from one hundred and forty-two in 2011-12 and one hundred and thirty-four in 2007-2008):
 
Australia’s national economy ranks 20th out of 144 countries, with the third lowest ratio among advance economies of Public debt to Gross Domestic Product.
Australia ranks 48th out of 144 countries when it comes to Wastefulness of government spending.
While the nation ranks 96th out of the same 144 countries in the category of Transparency of government policymaking.
Finally, when a ranking for Pay and productivity is calculated Australia is 80th of 144 countries.
 
No reputable statistician would eliminate 44 countries and still keep the same ranking as does this graph. Nor would they try to merge two separate financial year ranking results in the same graph without adjusting for the 10 country difference.
 
Therefore this graph may be nothing more than a sly attempt to skew the electorate’s perception of how the country is faring in the lead up to the September 2013 federal election.

Saturday 26 January 2013

Something to think about in the 2013 federal election year


 ABS trend estimate of unemployed persons

Australia’s unemployment rate is currently running at 5.4% according to the folks who know.
Jericho over at Grog’s Gamut points out that it would be 5.1% if Queensland LNP Premier Campbell Newman hadn’t taken a scythe to that state’s public service after he took office in March 2012.
Now how many times has Tony Abbott held Newman’s government as a pattern card of fiscal responsibility?
Well, there’s this:
Gee, sorta sounds like Abbott’s plan for the Australian economy doesn’t it?