Global Warming: the Red Herring strikes again!

One of the Clarence Valley’s arch-denialists is once more on the anti-climate science campaign trail…..

Letter to the Editor, The Daily Examiner, 10 February 2017, p.11:

Old heat

Browsing through past newspaper articles brought up this reminder of just how hot it's been in years gone by.

The 1896 February 3 edition of the Kalgoorlie Miner carried this article titled: Heat in NSW: A record of the extreme heat which has prevailed in the West during the last month has been supplied to the government by the Manager of Gundabook estate on the Darling river.

The record shows that from January 1-25 the thermometer ranged from 112deg. to 123deg. in the shade, during the first week from 118 to 124: during the second week from 118 to 128 and during the third week the thermometer once went to 129 degrees: All these readings are in Farenheit and when converted to Celcius range from 44.44deg. to 47.77deg to 50.55 deg to 51.11 deg, 53.55 deg, and 53.88 deg. the highest reading.

Now that was a heat wave that occurred without the assistance of the much maligned industrial revolution.

Fred Perring, Halfway Creek

As usual Mr. Perring doesn’t do his homework.

The Industrial Revolution began around the mid-1700s and over a century later (in the year cited by Perring) the effects of greenhouse gases on global atmosphere and ground temperature, as well as the possibility of fossil fuels being a source of carbon dioxide were already being discussed in the scientific community.

The following is a snapshot of a paper by Nobel Prize winner Svante August Arrhenius published in April 1896:

Royal Society of Chemistry, retrieved 11 February 2017

The paper in its entirety can be read here.

The 'Archie Bunker' of Clarence Valley has offered his head for public washing again...

The ‘Archie Bunker’ of Clarence Valley John Ibbotson has offered his head for public washing again…..

Letter to the Editor, The Daily Examiner, 2 February 2017, page 9:

No science to it aka Climate sceptic's howlers insult to mainstream science

A good general knowledge implies knowing a fair bit about a wide range of subjects but it can also mean not knowing enough about anything specific in order to become to become an authority. John Ibbotson and climate science is a classic example.

Because of his lack of knowledge John's letters have a tendency to contain scientifically indefensible howlers.

From the many, an Ibbotson clanger highlights reel would include (and I paraphrase):

1. "CO2 is a harmless, benign compound!"

2. "Ocean acidification is impossible because sea water is alkaline!"

3. "Velocity ratio for a wind turbine is an absurdity!" and so on.

No doubt with some prompting, John's grasp of climate science has improved over time, but it still begs the question: is it too easy to believe you are absolutely correct when you don't, won't or can't understand the basic science which would show that you are just simply wrong?

The kindest thing that can be said about John's letters on climate is that his offerings on other topics (apart from maybe being too frequent), are more or less based on fact.

In his latest climate letter (DEX Jan 1) John quite graciously confirms that the last two decades for the planet have been abnormally warm but he will be most disappointed to learn that contrary to his assertion I am decidedly of any colour other than green.

In fact I am just a very average DEX reader who is more than willing to defend mainstream science from unjustified denigration by self-indulgent sceptic opportunists such as John Ibbotson, the esteemed Viv Forbes and others.

Ted Strong, Seelands

In 1947 the Atomic Clock was set at 7 minutes to midnight & by 2016 the clock stood at 3 minutes to midnight - Donald Trump's presidency has moved its hands to 2 minutes 30 seconds

Six days after Donald John Trump was sworn in as the 45^th President of the United States of America the Atomic Doomsday Clock moved closer to Armageddon.

Image found at Business Insider Australia

It is two and a half minutes to midnight

2017 Doomsday Clock Statement

Science and Security Board

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

Editor, John Mecklin

This year marks the 70th anniversary of the Doomsday Clock, a graphic that appeared on the first cover of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists as it transitioned from a six-page, black-and-white newsletter to a full-fledged magazine. For its first cover, the editors sought an image that represented a seriousness of purpose and an urgent call for action. The Clock, and the countdown to midnight that it implied, fit the bill perfectly. The Doomsday Clock, as it came to be called, has served as a globally recognized arbiter of the planet’s health and safety ever since.

Each year, the setting of the Doomsday Clock galvanizes a global debate about whether the planet is safer or more dangerous today than it was last year, and at key moments in recent history. Our founders would not be surprised to learn that the threats to the planet that the Science and Security Board now considers have expanded since 1947. In fact, the Bulletin’s first editor, Eugene Rabinowitch, noted that one of the purposes of the Bulletin was to respond and offer solutions to the “Pandora’s box of modern science,” recognizing the speed at which technological advancement was occurring, and the demanding questions it would present.

In 1947 there was one technology with the potential to destroy the planet, and that was nuclear power. Today, rising temperatures, resulting from the industrial-scale burning of fossil fuels, will change life on Earth as we know it, potentially destroying or displacing it from significant portions of the world, unless action is taken today, and in the immediate future. Future technological innovation in biology, artificial intelligence, and the cyber realm may pose similar global challenges. The knotty problems that innovations in these fields may present are not yet fully realized, but the Bulletin’s Science and Security Board tends to them with a watchful eye.

This year’s Clock deliberations felt more urgent than usual. On the big topics that concern the board, world leaders made too little progress in the face of continuing turbulence. In addition to the existential threats posed by nuclear weapons and climate change, new global realities emerged, as trusted sources of information came under attack, fake news was on the rise, and words were used in cavalier and often reckless ways. As if to prove that words matter and fake news is dangerous, Pakistan’s foreign minister issued a blustery statement, a tweet actually, flexing Pakistan’s nuclear muscle—in response to a fabricated “news” story about Israel. Today’s complex global environment is in need of deliberate and considered policy responses. It is ever more important that senior leaders across the globe calm rather than stoke tensions that could lead to war, either by accident or miscalculation.

I once again commend the board for approaching its task with the seriousness it deserves. Bulletin Editor-in-Chief John Mecklin did a remarkable job pulling together this document and reflecting the in-depth views and opinions of the board. Considerable thanks goes to our supporters including the Carnegie Corporation of New York, MacArthur Foundation, Ploughshares Fund, David Weinberg and Jerry Newton, as well as valued supporters across the year.

I hope the debate engendered by the 2017 setting of the Clock raises the level of conversation, promotes calls to action, and helps citizens around the world hold their leaders responsible for delivering a safer and healthier planet.

Rachel Bronson, PhD

Executive Director and Publisher

26 January, 2017

Chicago, IL

It is two and a half minutes to midnight

Editor’s note: Founded in 1945 by University of Chicago scientists who had helped develop the first atomic weapons in the Manhattan Project, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists created the Doomsday Clock two years later, using the imagery of apocalypse (midnight) and the contemporary idiom of nuclear explosion (countdown to zero) to convey threats to humanity and the planet. The decision to move (or to leave in place) the minute hand of the Doomsday Clock is made every year by the Bulletin’s Science and Security Board in consultation with its Board of Sponsors, which includes 15 Nobel laureates. The Clock has become a universally recognized indicator of the world’s vulnerability to catastrophe from nuclear weapons, climate change, and new technologies emerging in other domains. A printable PDF of this statement, complete with the executive director’s statement and Science and Security Board biographies, is available here.

To: Leaders and citizens of the world

Re: It is 30 seconds closer to midnight

Date: January 26, 2017

Over the course of 2016, the global security landscape darkened as the international community failed to come effectively to grips with humanity’s most pressing existential threats, nuclear weapons and climate change.

The United States and Russia—which together possess more than 90 percent of the world’s nuclear weapons—remained at odds in a variety of theaters, from Syria to Ukraine to the borders of NATO; both countries continued wide-ranging modernizations of their nuclear forces, and serious arms control negotiations were nowhere to be seen. North Korea conducted its fourth and fifth underground nuclear tests and gave every indication it would continue to develop nuclear weapons delivery capabilities. Threats of nuclear warfare hung in the background as Pakistan and India faced each other warily across the Line of Control in Kashmir after militants attacked two Indian army bases.

The climate change outlook was somewhat less dismal—but only somewhat. In the wake of the landmark Paris climate accord, the nations of the world have taken some actions to combat climate change, and global carbon dioxide emissions were essentially flat in 2016, compared to the previous year. Still, they have not yet started to decrease; the world continues to warm. Keeping future temperatures at less-than-catastrophic levels requires reductions in greenhouse gas emissions far beyond those agreed to in Paris—yet little appetite for additional cuts was in evidence at the November climate conference in Marrakech.

This already-threatening world situation was the backdrop for a rise in strident nationalism worldwide in 2016, including in a US presidential campaign during which the eventual victor, Donald Trump, made disturbing comments about the use and proliferation of nuclear weapons and expressed disbelief in the overwhelming scientific consensus on climate change.

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists Science and Security Board takes a broad and international view of existential threats to humanity, focusing on long-term trends. Because of that perspective, the statements of a single person—particularly one not yet in office—have not historically influenced the board’s decision on the setting of the Doomsday Clock.

But wavering public confidence in the democratic institutions required to deal with major world threats do affect the board’s decisions. And this year, events surrounding the US presidential campaign—including cyber offensives and deception campaigns apparently directed by the Russian government and aimed at disrupting the US election—have brought American democracy and Russian intentions into question and thereby made the world more dangerous than was the case a year ago.

For these reasons, the Science and Security Board of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists has decided to move the minute hand of the Doomsday Clock 30 seconds closer to catastrophe. It is now two minutes and 30 seconds to midnight.

The board’s decision to move the clock less than a full minute—something it has never before done—reflects a simple reality: As this statement is issued, Donald Trump has been the US president only a matter of days. Many of his cabinet nominations are not yet confirmed by the Senate or installed in government, and he has had little time to take official action.

Just the same, words matter, and President Trump has had plenty to say over the last year. Both his statements and his actions as president-elect have broken with historical precedent in unsettling ways. He has made ill-considered comments about expanding the US nuclear arsenal. He has shown a troubling propensity to discount or outright reject expert advice related to international security, including the conclusions of intelligence experts. And his nominees to head the Energy Department and the Environmental Protection Agency dispute the basics of climate science.

In short, even though he has just now taken office, the president’s intemperate statements, lack of openness to expert advice, and questionable cabinet nominations have already made a bad international security situation worse.

Last year, and the year before, we warned that world leaders were failing to act with the speed and on the scale required to protect citizens from the extreme danger posed by climate change and nuclear war. During the past year, the need for leadership only intensified—yet inaction and brinksmanship have continued, endangering every person, everywhere on Earth.

Who will lead humanity away from global disaster?

The full transcript can be found at http://thebulletin.org/sites/default/files/Final%202017%20Clock%20Statement.pdf.

Donald Trump apprised of the facts regarding Iran's nuclear capability in 2017

As 20 January 2017 inexorably approaches a letter to Donald Trump from thirty-seven scientists and engineers was made public:

2 January 2017

Dear President-Elect Trump;

On August 9, 2015 a group of scientists and engineers with understanding of the physics and technology of nuclear power and of nuclear weapons sent an open letter to President Obama about the Iran Deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). We characterized the JCPOA as “an innovative agreement, with much more stringent constraints than any previously negotiated non-proliferation framework.”

Eleven months after “implementation day” we write to provide our assessment of the current status of the JCPOA. As agreed, Iran has deactivated and put into storage under International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) seal about 2/3 of its centrifuges, and it has exported more than 95% of its stockpile of low-enriched uranium—a springboard to weapon-usable highly enriched uranium. Iran no longer produces uranium with enrichment near 20%, as it did before the interim Joint Plan of Action (JPOA), but is restricted to 3.67% enrichment. As a result of the reduced centrifuge capacity and the elimination of the large stock of partially enriched uranium, the breakout time for Iran to produce enough highly enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon has increased to many months, from just a few weeks during the time that the JPOA was under negotiation. IAEA inspectors now have the right to daily access at Iran’s enrichment plant at Natanz, and monitoring devices there make continuous on-line enrichment measurements. We are confident that no surprise breakout at this facility is possible.

The large “calandria” or reactor vessel for Iran’s heavy-water reactor has been rendered inoperable, and Iran’s stockpile of heavy water has been reduced to 130 metric tons and capped at that level. The overage of 0.1 tons recently reported by the IAEA, of no strategic significance, was remedied by export of 11 tons as verified by the IAEA. The redesign of the reactor will ensure that its plutonium production will be about 10% of that from the original design, and, when construction is complete and the reactor has begun operation, the fuel that has generated plutonium will be removed from Iran. These steps eliminate the means for Iran to produce plutonium, the alternative material for nuclear weapons.

Furthermore, Iran has agreed to an enhanced version of the procedures of the “Additional Protocol” to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which gives IAEA inspectors access to, inter alia, centrifuge manufacturing, R&D and storage sites, and uranium mines, as well as any suspect potential clandestine uranium enrichment facilities.

In sum, the JCPOA has dramatically reduced the risk that Iran could suddenly produce significant quantities of nuclear-weapon materials. This has lowered the pressure felt by Iran’s neighbors to develop their own nuclear weapons options and none has announced a new dual-use nuclear program of its own.

In the near term it will be necessary to maintain vigilance using the verification procedures in place. As we noted in our previous letter, if Iran decides to increase its enrichment capacity as allowed by the JCPOA after about ten years, enhanced verification measures would be desirable and consistent with Iran’s commitment in the JCPOA to implement certified modern verification procedures in line with internationally accepted IAEA practice. Multinational participation in what is currently a purely national program for producing power reactor fuel may also be a desirable means to enhance transparency.

The JCPOA does not take any options off the table for you or any future president. Indeed it makes it much easier for you to know if and when Iran heads for a bomb. It provides both time and legitimacy for an effective response.

Our technical judgment is that the multilateral JCPOA provides a strong bulwark against an Iranian nuclear-weapons program. We urge you to preserve this critical U.S. strategic asset.

Sincerely,

Richard L. Garwin, IBM Fellow Emeritus Robert J. Goldston, Princeton University

Siegfried S. Hecker, Stanford University

Martin Hellman, Stanford University

Rush D. Holt, American Association for the Advancement of Science R. Scott Kemp, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Frank von Hippel, Princeton University

_______________________________________________________________________

Also signed by:

John F. Ahearne, Member, National Academy of Engineering

Philip W. Anderson, Professor Emeritus, Princeton University

Lewis M. Branscomb, Professor Emeritus, University of California at San Diego

Christopher Chyba, Princeton University

Leon N. Cooper, Brown University

Pierce S. Corden, Former Director, Office of International Security Negotiations,

Bureau of Arms Control, Department of State

John M. Cornwall, Professor of Physics and Astronomy, UCLA

Philip E. Coyle, Former Associate Director for National Security and

International Affairs, White House Office of Science and Technology Policy

Sidney D. Drell, Stanford University

Freeman Dyson, Professor Emeritus, Institute for Advanced Study, Princeton

Harold A. Feiveson, Program on Science and Global Security, Princeton University

Charles D. Ferguson, Federation of American Scientists

Michael E. Fisher, Emeritus, Cornell University and the University of Maryland

Jerome I. Friedman, Nobel Prize in physics 1990

Victor Gilinsky, Former Member of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission

Howard Georgi, Mallinckrodt Professor of Physics, Harvard University

Sheldon L. Glashow, Higgins Professor of Physics Emeritus, Harvard University,

Arthur Metcalf Professor of Science and Mathematics, Boston University

Lisbeth Gronlund, Union of Concerned Scientists

David Gross, Kavli Institute for Theoretical Physics, UCSB

Gregory Loew, Emeritus Stanford/SLAC Professor

Allison M Macfarlane, George Washington University

Richard A. Meserve, President Emeritus, Carnegie Institution for Science

Marvin Miller, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

C. Kumar N. Patel, Professor Emeritus, Dept of Physics and Astonomy, UCLA

John Parmentola, Former Senior VP General Atomics and Former Director for Research

And Laboratory Management U.S. Army

Malvin A. Ruderman, Columbia University

Burton Richter, Stanford University

Myriam Sarachik, City College of New York, CUNY

Roy F. Schwitters, The University of Texas at Austin

David Wright, Union of Concerned Scientists

(Affiliations for identification only)

While we were away.....

Some of the issues and comment which caught my attention while the blog was on annual holiday.

* THE NSW Environment Protection Authority (EPA) is investigating several trucks that were not sealed correctly before transporting waste that potentially contained asbestos.

The EPA has been closely monitoring the remediation of the former South Grafton Sewage Treatment Plant by Clarence Valley Council, in response to a number of concerns raised by the community.

Adam Gilligan, Regional Director North, said a recent inspection observed trucks leaving the site with incorrectly sealed loads. The same contractors currently under investigation are also under investigation for similar issues in the Tweed area.

"I want to make it clear that, to date, Clarence Valley Council have taken appropriate steps in managing the environmental aspects of the remediation project.”

"However, the improper transport of waste potentially containing asbestos is a serious issue that warranted swift action to prevent a recurrence.”

See: http://www.dailyexaminer.com.au/news/epa-investigates-super-depot-waste-transport/3126001/

* Scientists in the U.S., aided by colleagues in Canada and elsewhere, are moving quickly to preserve climate data stored on government computer servers out of concern that the Trump administration might remove or dismantle the records. A “guerrilla archiving” event will be held at the University of Toronto this weekend to catalog U.S. government climate and environmental data. Other researchers from the University of California to the University of Pennsylvania are responding to calls on Twitter and the Internet to preserve data on everything from rising seas to wildfires. The actions come as President-elect Donald Trump has appointed climate change skeptics to all his top environment and energy posts. Though there has been no mention yet of removing publicly available data, “it’s not unreasonable to think that they would want to take down the very data that they dispute,” said Michael Halpern of the Union of Concerned Scientists.

See: http://e360.yale.edu/digest/fearing_trump_scientists_rush_to_preserve_key_climate_data_sets/4862/

* In a report sent to Planning Minister Rob Stokes, just before the latest approval, the NSW National Parks Association (NPA) estimated 29-40 million litres a day of water were entering the coal mines in and around the Illawarra Special Areas, including Dendrobium. (See map below of the Wongawilli (lower mines) and Dendrobium coal mines (upper set) sprawling between the Avon and Cordeaux Reservoirs.)

According to the NPA, the mid-range estimate is equivalent to about 10 per cent of the total daily supply taken from the Avon, Cataract, Cordeaux, and Woronora reservoirs.

"It's important to note that there is currently no reliable means of knowing how much of this water would have otherwise gone into the storage reservoirs", Peter Turner, NPA mining projects officer, said.

Those estimates, though, may be conservative because they don't include inflows that are adding to water bodies accumulating within the mines, Dr Turner said. 

"There doesn't appear to be any reporting or auditing of  water pooling in either the current or the old mines within and around the Illawarra Special Areas," he said. "It's not clear whether the Dendrobium and adjacent Wongawilli mines are staying within their water licence limits." 
See: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/outrageous-coal-mine-gets-expansion-nod-despite-secret-incomplete-studies-20161222-gtgz4d.html

@LennaLeprena @Loud_Lass @NannanBay @deniseshrivell @MGliksmanMDPhD @leftocentre Merry Xmas Boys & Girls. pic.twitter.com/EKmqXP0jaW

— Freda Nurks (@fredanurks) December 24, 2016

* If there is one unforeseen advantage of Donald Trump's election to the seat of the US presidency, it is the fevered goodwill that has flowed into the coffers of progressive, anti-Trump, causes since.

Since the Republican nominee's election win on November 8, nonprofit organisations in the US - such as pro-choice charity Planned Parenthood - have seen a massive upsurge in donations. In the build-up to Christmas, the wave of generosity only strengthened as disappointed voters did their best to counter the President elect's dismaying policies around civil rights, including immigration and women's reproductive rights.

See: http://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/news-and-views/news-features/planned-parenthood-has-seen-donations-skyrocket-in-wake-of-donald-trumps-win-20161227-gtidny.html

* The Turnbull government insists most pensioners will be better off under changes in the New Year, as Newspoll analysis shows older voters are turning against the Coalition.

The analysis of 8508 voters in surveys taken for The Australian from October to December reveals a seven-percentage-point plunge in the primary vote for the Coalition among voters over 50 since the July 2 election.

Support for the government in the largest voting demographic has fallen from 49.9 per cent to 43 per cent.

Two-thirds of the lost vote has shifted to Labor and one-third to independents and minor parties.

The dip has come as the government faces criticism over an overhaul of superannuation taxes, changes to the pension assets test and aged care reforms.

See: http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/newspoll-shows-govt-losing-older-voters/news-story/8ae0cacf85fc3de5136f3a284e37a0cc

* Bill McLennan, the Australian statistician from 1995 to 2000, argues that this census is “the most significant invasion of privacy ever perpetrated” by the ABS. But it is far more than that. It is an unparalleled resource — crying out to be stolen — for our adversaries to use against us in cyber and other conflicts.

Imagine if China or Russia had a copy of this information. They would know, or easily could deduce, the names, ranks and military base of every member of our armed forces, from a general to a Digger. Indeed this would be a trivial piece of big data analytics.

Similarly, they could deduce the details of every intelligence officer, every public servant, every politician, every chief executive, every union official, every doctor, nurse and teacher, and on and on.

But it would be worse than just that because this personal data provides a highly reliable framework on which to hang other data — information that is stolen from credit card companies, telcos, retailers and so forth — to build comprehensive pictures of every individual’s strengths and weaknesses.

Such knowledge gives a strategic edge to an adversary in any conflict where information warfare plays a significant role.

It turbocharges an adversary’s information warfare capacity, particularly in the not-war-not-peace cyber conflicts that are the 21st century’s version of the Cold War.

Two obvious questions arise.

Could our adversaries steal the census? The answer to this must be yes. We know it is possible for cyber intelligence agencies to infiltrate highly protected computer systems unobserved, then locate, copy and export data, again unobserved, and then leave the system, covering their tracks as they go.

We know from US congressional public hearings that Russia and China have these capabilities.

Essentially we know that no computer system is invulnerable to determined and sophisticated attackers, despite what their owners may say. And remember that we are talking about the ABS here, with its ageing computer system, demonstrably poor cybersecurity and a clearly slack, lazy, cosy relationship with its IT vendors.

The second question is this: are our adversaries stealing the census? We have to assume that they have at least considered it.

When the idea of electronically linking names and addresses to census data was first announced a few years ago, it is easy to imagine that both Russia and China would have counted their blessings — no one else does this, only us mugs in Australia.

They immediately could have begun to reconnoitre the ABS’s computer systems while preparing to inject useful pieces of sleeper software to assist in later operations.

Beijing, as it has done in many cases in other countries, also may have considered trying to suborn or persuade ethnic Chinese employees or contractors to assist in this process.

In the cat-and-mouse game of cyber espionage and counterespionage, we have to assume that our adversaries could do these things undetected.

So it’s highly plausible that Russia and China, or both, are stealthily stealing your census — and getting away with it. I’d give it better than even money because each of these powers has the motivation, capability, opportunity and, most important, intent.

See: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/census-cost-us-dearly-enemies-have-our-number/news-story/6072da324862e743e6b7cd806b82fdb6 

* Donald Trump's assault on trade is escalating. First the foes were China and Mexico. Now it is the world.

The Trump transition team has mooted an import tariff of 10 per cent across the board, doubling down on earlier talk of a 5 per cent tax. Such thinking is of a different character to Mr Trump's campaign rhetoric, which mostly hinted at trade sanctions to force concessions.

A catch-all tariff is a change of belief systems. It overthrows the free trade order that has been upheld and policed by Washington since the 1940s.

Congress cannot stop Mr Trump imposing his will by "executive action" under existing US law. The president may impose tariffs of up to 15 per cent for 150 days without having to demonstrate any damage. All he has to do is utter the words "macroeconomic imbalances", or invoke "national security", and he can do what he wants.

The thrust is becoming all too clear. Mr Trump's choice of leader of the White House National Trade Council is a virulent Sinophobe. Without wishing to caricature Peter Navarro, there is a relentless consistency to his work: The Coming China Wars, Death by China: Confronting the Dragon, and Crouching Tiger: What China's Militarism Means for the World.

See: http://www.smh.com.au/business/world-business/trumps-trade-policies-become-more-shocking-by-the-day-20161228-gtj3zd.html

23 December 2016

* A 27-year-old Sudanese refugee held on Manus Island has died following “a fall and seizure” inside the Australian-run detention centre.

It is understood the man, who had reportedly been unwell for several months, collapsed and suffered head injuries inside the detention centre on Friday. He was then evacuated to Royal Brisbane and Women’s hospital, where he died on Saturday.

The Guardian understands the man’s name was Faysal Ishak Ahmed. He was born in Khartoum in June 1989 and had been held on Manus since October 2013.

A source on Manus told Guardian Australia that Ahmed had been sick for more than six months and other detainees had alerted the organisation responsible for care on the island, International Health and Medical Services (IHMS), to his sitaution.

“Last night he collapsed in Oscar prison and injured his head seriously,” the source said. “It was not the first time that he had fainted. A few days ago the refugees wrote a complaint against IHMS about his situation.”

According to the Refugee Action Coalition, the letter was signed by more than 60 refugees on Manus last week.

They said he had suffered numerous blackouts and collapses over the past several months.

“Faysal is yet another casualty of the systematic neglect that characterises Manus Island and offshore detention,” said Ian Rintoul, spokesman for the Refugee Action Coalition.

A media statement from the Department of Immigration and Border Protection confirmed the death of the 27-year-old man from “a fall and seizure” at the detention centre.

“The department is not aware of any suspicious circumstances surrounding the death and expresses its sympathies to his family and friends,” it said. “The death will be reported to the Queensland coroner. No further comment will be made at this time.”

See: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/dec/24/sudanese-refugee-dies-in-brisbane-hospital-after-medivac-from-manus

* DECEMBER 10-11: NSW Government planning minister Paul Toole knocks back a request from the Clarence Valley Council to fund work on its $13.5 million super depot in South Grafton with an internal loan. The council planned to use money from its water fund to cover a cash flow shortfall while the council sold off assets to raise money for the depot work.

DECEMBER 12: Brooms Head Caravan Park long-time visitors and residents are up in arms over proposed changes to the park. Clarence Valley Council has released a concept design report for the caravan park with an estimated $7.91m worth of changes, including improved amenities, a revised road layout, more cabins and a phasing out of traditional user camping sites.

DECEMBER 13: With the finishing line in sight for the re-vamped Harwood Slipway, owners Harwood Marine announce they have 18 jobs worth around $10 million on the books waiting to get started. Company managing director Ross Roberts says the slipway should re-open some time in January.

DECEMBER 14: A private motocross track on a property has created division among property owners and neighbours on Tallawudjah Creek Rd, near Glenreagh. It also split opinion on Clarence Valley Council, with Mayor Jim Simmons' casting vote needed to give the clearance for the track to go ahead.

DECEMBER 15: Some Ulmarra residents fear a Clarence Valley Council resolution which will almost certainly mean the village's community pool will close at the end of the swimming season, will mean children will swim in the Clarence River, where bull sharks have been caught.

DECEMBER 16: There is fury among South Grafton residents near the Grafton District Golf Club at a council decision which could allow the sub-division of two former holes on the course into 16 building lots. The residents had agreed to a development of nine one-acre lots and were angry the golf club changed this to 16. The council voted to accept 16 lots, but wants layout changes to alleviate residents' concerns.

DECEMBER 17-18: Chaos around the Clarence Valley as a car crashes into the Joy Noodle store in South Grafton, a man is arrested after allegedly threatening a family with a gun near Buccarumbi and a man is allegedly stabbed in the knee with scissors during the theft of his vehicle in Yamba.

DECEMBER 19: The Daily Examiner launches its Give Don't Grieve campaign urging people to take road safety seriously in response to the rising road toll in the State.

DECEMBER 20: Seventy-two tabs of what is believed to be LSD were seized during a weekend drug dog operation on the Lower River. It was one of three significant busts made by police, as they took the animals through a number of licensed premises, parks and public places around Yamba and Maclean.

DECEMBER 21: A single mother of three, Stevie Martin, thanks lady luck after a single pine tree in the front yard of her house in Ellandgrove between South Grafton and Coutts Crossing, saves her house from major damage.

A savage storm that ripped through the area ripped the roof off a neighbour's house and sent it hurtling toward her house until the tree blocked it.

DECEMBER 22: The international media comments on the seeming reluctance of the Australian judicial system to bring the men charged over the death of Maclean woman Lynette Daley to court.

A report in the New York Post, picked up by media across the USA, says racism in Australian society is behind it.

DECEMBER 23: Police say the body of a teenager girl discovered near Yamba is believed to be missing Grafton girl Emma Powell.

The body of the 16-year-old was found in a reserve with the family car and dog which went missing with her.

The dog, Indie, was taken into safety by rangers.

DECEMBER 24: The Mororo Rd turn off from the Pacific Highway has been turned into a death trap by the works to upgrade the highway say residents. The RMS is about to release the results of a safety audit of the contentious area.

DECEMBER 26: The NSW Environment Protection Authority is investigating several trucks that were not sealed correctly before transporting waste that potentially contained asbestos.

The authority has been closely monitoring the remediation of the former South Grafton sewage Treatment Plant by Clarence Valley Council.

DECEMBER 27: A Grafton man is pulled from the surf on Wooli Beach, but dies of cardiac arrest after trying to rescue to young family members.

DECEMBER 28: Details emerge of the death of 60-year-old Grafton man Geoffrey Blackadder, who died while trying to save two young family members on Wooli Beach on Boxing Day.

DECEMBER 29: Clarence Valley beaches are packed as holiday makers enjoy hot weather. But lifeguards warn there can be challenging conditions which swimmers need to be wary of.

DECEMBER 30: The death of a 12-year-old boy in a car crash on the Pacific Highway at Tyndale prompts a warning that more deaths will happen on the notorious blackspot before the highway upgrade is complete.

DECEMBER 31: News emerges the boy who died in the crash at Tyndale is a relation of Australian media icon Ita Buttrose.

See: The Daily Examiner, 31 December 2016, p.6

* In 2016, Bob Brown and Jessica Hoyt were arrested for peacefully protesting against logging at Lapoinya in NW Tasmania.

They were charged under Tasmania’s harsh new ‘anti-protest’ laws. With huge fines and prison sentences, these laws attack the right to peaceful protest, a cornerstone of our democracy. 

Governments across Australia are now copying these laws, to crush dissent on environmental, social, cultural and Indigenous issues.  

These laws must be stopped now to protect everyone's right to peaceful protest. 

Bob Brown has launched action in the High Court of Australia to overturn these draconian laws, so that Australians remain free to take a stand on important issues we all care about. 

Jessica Hoyt, who grew up in Lapoinya, now a neurosurgery nurse in Hobart, has joined Bob in the High Court action. 

This case is a huge undertaking, with an enormous financial cost. 

But we cannot allow these laws to take hold, strangling our democratic rights.  

Stand with Bob and Jessica, and make a pledge today to strike down these undemocratic laws, once and for all.  

With potential legal costs of $250,000 or more, we are aiming to crowd fund at least $100,000 towards the legal costs that Bob Brown and Jessica Hoyt could face.

See: https://pozible.com/project/stand-with-bob-brown

* A north coast environment group has lashed the Environment Protection Authority, which has issued NSW Forestry Corporation with not one cent in fines despite proof the corporation flouted its compliance obligations while felling trees at Cherry Tree State Forest, near Casino.

North East Forest Alliance (NEFA) co-ordinator and audit-author Dailan Pugh said that the EPA have identified 66 instances of non-compliance with logging laws, ‘though this belies the fact that a single ‘non-compliance’ can represent hundreds of actual breaches.’

‘From the EPA’s figures, some 325 ancient hollow-bearing trees were illegally logged, though the EPA only count this as one act of non-compliance,’ Mr Pugh said.

‘While this is the most comprehensive investigation of our complaints that the EPA have yet undertaken, they still failed to investigate numerous complaints, For example we identified that 26 vulnerable Onion Cedars had an illegal road constructed within their buffers, but the EPA only checked eight of them. Similarly of the 11 poorly drained and eroding tracks we reported the EPA only checked nine.

‘There were also numerous offences relating to koalas, yellow-bellied gliders and black-striped wallabies that the EPA confirmed but claim they couldn’t legally prove.

‘We have been finding similar breaches in all the audits we have been undertaking, year after year after year.

‘Yet the EPA’s only response is to issue 47 more “official cautions” and require yet more ‘action plans’. These pathetic responses have been proven to be useless. The Forestry Corporation continue to deny they do anything wrong and continue to go on illegally logging.

‘The EPA are still yet to complete their investigations into eight cases of illegal roading and logging of the Endangered Ecological Community Lowland Rainforest, and hundreds of cases of the Forestry Corporation recklessly damaging retained hollow-bearing trees.

‘They say that these serious offences are subject to an ongoing investigation. We can only hope that next time the punishment will match the crime’ Mr Pugh said.

See: http://www.echo.net.au/2016/12/epas-official-cautions-confirm-pathetic-status-nefa/

* Debit cards have been returned to dozens of Aboriginal people in outback South Australia, after a local store owner drained almost $1 million from their bank accounts.
It follows a landmark Federal Court ruling last month, which found the trader guilty of unconscionable conduct.
Community groups hope it sends a message to others taking advantage of customers in remote areas.

See: http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2016/s4596675.htm

Yet another #TurnbullGovernmentFAIL

Turnbull Government decides Australian taxpayers should fund extremely dubious, irresponsible comment……..

The Guardian, 23 December 2016:

The Turnbull government signed an agreement to make a $640,000 grant to Bjørn Lomborg’s Copenhagen Consensus Centre nine months after plans to establish the centre had been abandoned.

The education department may have been under no legal obligation to make the grant, documents suggest.

The funding was used to support the centre’s post-2015 UN development goals project that found limiting global temperature rises to 2C was a poor investment.

A breakdown of costs released on Thursday shows that $482,000 of the Australian funding was spent on professional fees and services including research, “outreach” and forums.

About $146,000 was spent on travel in an ambitious global project convening seminars to discuss the UN development goals in Bangladesh, Brazil, Colombia, India, Indonesia, Kenya, Mexico, Nigeria, South Africa and New York.

The project formed the basis of Lomborg’s book The Nobel Laureates’ Guide to the Smartest Targets for the World, which is not widely available in Australian shops.

Documents released under freedom of information show the department only entered a formal agreement to fund the project as late as 21 March 2016. Based on those documents and answers provided by the education department it appears the government did not have any ongoing commitment to the project when the Australian Consensus Centre was canned in June 2015.

The government’s plan to establish the Australian Consensus Centre was put into effect in an agreement with the University of Western Australia (UWA) dated 24 March 2015.

But on 26 June 2015 the government and UWA terminated the agreement by consent because the university rejected the funds after a public backlash. The agreement created an obligation for the government to pay UWA’s reasonable costs, but did not create obligations to the CCC.

An education department spokeswoman told Guardian Australia no payments were made to UWA under the agreement.

The $640,000 grant is disclosed in a log of education grants dated 2 July 2015 but the spokeswoman said it was only added after the grant agreement was signed with the CCC on 21 March 2016.

In September 2015 it was referred to in an incoming ministerial brief to Turnbull’s pick for education minister, Simon Birmingham.

“The department has negotiated a funding agreement which will provide a one-off payment to the CCC for a total of $640,000 to cover costs incurred in relation to the establishment of the Australian Consensus Centre prior to the decision to cancel this project,” it said.

When Guardian Australia asked for a copy of the “funding agreement” with the CCC referred to in the briefing, the education department provided the 21 March 2016 agreement.

An education department spokeswoman said “payments were undertaken in accordance with the government’s funding agreement with UWA and the memorandum of understanding between UWA and the CCC”.

The department did not directly respond to questions about how an agreement between the government and UWA and a the memorandum between UWA and the CCC could create legal obligations between the department and the CCC.

If there was another legal obligation to pay the CCC, such as an equitable duty, the education department did not identify it after detailed questions, nor identify its source.

Neither the education department nor Birmingham explained why a new grant agreement was struck on 21 March 2016 if all or part of the $640,000 was owed by the commonwealth for some pre-existing legal obligation……

Prof. Hugh Possingham quits NSW Independent Biodiversity Legislation Review Panel in disgust at Baird Government's actions

The Sydney Morning Herald, 3 November 2016:

A leading adviser to the Baird government's proposed changes to native vegetation laws has quit in protest, warning the plans could lead to a doubling of broadscale land clearing in the state.

Hugh Possingham, a Queensland University conservation biologist, submitted his resignation letter to Premier Mike Baird and key ministers, saying his advice and those from a panel he had sat on were being ignored.

Instead of improving the existing legislation, the new biodiversity conservation package due to be put to Parliament as soon as next week will enable farmers to clear hundreds of hectares a property without having to find equivalent areas of offsets to preserve biodiversity under so-called "equity codes".

"It's not what we agreed to," Professor Possingham told Fairfax Media. "If you increase the quantity and quality of land clearing, you increase the chances of extinction."

Using tax offsets as a principal funding device to encourage self-assessing corporations to conduct research and development. What could possibly go wrong?

Providing a tax incentive for industry to conduct, in a scientific way, experimental activities for the purpose of generating new knowledge or information in either a general or applied form. [C’wealth Income Tax Assessment Act 1997 - SECT 355.5]

What could possibly go wrong when a federal government primarily funds business research and development (R&D) by offering private corporations tax offsets for conducting such activities, while at the same time allowing them to self-assess whether they are eligible for these tax incentives and whether their research is genuine?

Well for a start, the companies involved tend to employ less science, technology, engineering and mathematics graduates to conduct their R&D.

Given that on 15 June 2016 The Australian reported that; the Productivity Commission says STEM graduates fare poorly in the job market, apart from those who have studied healthcare, mining engineering and surveying. The outlook for mathematics and computer science qualifications are only slightly below average, however there are big gaps for graduates in life sciences, chemistry and the physical sciences. Employment outcomes improve three years after graduation, but 20 per cent of people with bachelor degrees in natural and physical sciences have still not got a job. Of those who do get work, many are in an unrelated field. About a quarter of people with science degrees say their qualifications are not relevant to their employment, one has to wonder why business and industry in Australia are not availing themselves of these qualified graduates.

Then there is the fact that it appears that this government program is not always well targeted.

Another flaw in this system is that voters have no way of knowing which companies are receiving these tax incentives and how much they are receiving, or of assessing what government foregoing so much tax income annually actually achieves as outcomes for the economy.

If science actually matters to the Turnbull Government it should matter not just in universities and identified research institutes but in all its aspects – including allegedly market-driven R&D.

One has to suspect that a little more academic discipline in business research and development might lead to better outcomes.

BACKGROUND

Dept. of Industry, Innovation and Science, Review of the R&D Tax Incentive (Ferris, Finkel and Frasier) 4 April 2016:

The R&D Tax Incentive (the Incentive) is the largest component of Australian government support for innovation, with around 13,700 entities performing $19.5 billion of R&D at an estimated cost to government of $2.95 billion in 2013-14. The Government commissioned this review to:

‘identify opportunities to improve the effectiveness and integrity of the R&D Tax Incentive, including by sharpening its focus on encouraging additional R&D spending.’

Reviewing the programme against these terms of reference involves the evaluation of the programme against its objectives, weighed against the costs, to measure the net social benefit.

The objectives, as stated in the programme’s legislation, are to ‘encourage industry to conduct research and development activities that might otherwise not be conducted…to benefit the wider Australian economy’. In other words, the Incentive seeks to encourage additional R&D (additionality) that benefits others (spillovers).

Most OECD countries have incentive schemes for R&D. Australia and most other countries use tax incentives as part of their public support, but Australia, Canada and the Netherlands are unusual in having tax measures as the principal form of support for business R&D. Countries such as Finland, Germany and Sweden are examples at the other end of the spectrum, in that they do not use tax incentives at all but rather support business R&D through direct measures such as competitive grants.

Overall assessment

The review panel finds that the programme falls short of meeting its stated objectives of additionality and spillovers. There are a number of areas where improvements could be sought in order to improve the effectiveness and integrity of the programme and achieve a stronger focus on additionality.

Based on the best estimates of additionality and spillovers, the panel found that the programme could be better targeted. The areas of improvement identified in this review would be likely to generate greater benefit from the programme for the Australian economy.….

The panel notes that there is a modest amount of collaboration with publicly-funded research organisations (PFROs) within the programme, but it is not an explicit focus. The panel also notes the low employment level of Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) PhD graduates in Australian industry relative to other OECD countries. This represents a lost opportunity for greater spillovers of knowledge between larger companies, PFROs and the broader marketplace…..

The panel notes that despite the level of coordination between AusIndustry and the ATO, the significant growth in the scale of the programme is placing increasing strain on the administrative and compliance model for the programme. The Government should consider options to improve administration. These could include: adopting a single application process rather than the current separation of registration and claims, introducing a single database for the entire programme, reviewing whether both AusIndustry and the ATO should continue to administer the programme jointly and closer collaboration and streamlining around review and findings. Either or both agencies may require additional resourcing to enable such improvements.

To place the programme into alignment with modern expectations and to allow public visibility of companies receiving public support for their activities, tax secrecy provisions should be adjusted to allow the publication of the names of companies claiming the Incentive and the amounts of R&D they have claimed…..