Showing posts with label statistics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label statistics. Show all posts

Sunday, 6 August 2017

Melbourne Institute's HILDA survey report 2017



Commenced in 2001, the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey is a nationally representative longitudinal study of Australian households. The study is funded by the Australian Government Department of Social Services (DSS) and is managed by the Melbourne Institute at the University of Melbourne. Roy Morgan Research has conducted the fieldwork since Wave 9 (2009), prior to which The Nielsen Company was the fieldwork provider.
The HILDA Survey seeks to provide longitudinal data on the lives of Australian residents. It annually collects information on a wide range of aspects of life in Australia, including household and family relationships, child care, employment, education, income, expenditure, health and wellbeing, attitudes and values on a variety of subjects, and various life events and experiences. Information is also collected at less frequent intervals on various topics, including household wealth, fertility related behaviour and plans, relationships with non-resident family members and non-resident partners, health care utilisation, eating habits, cognitive functioning and retirement.
The important distinguishing feature of the HILDA Survey is that the same households and individuals are interviewed every year, allowing us to see how their lives are changing over time. By design, the study can be infinitely lived, following not only the initial sample members for the remainder of their lives, but also their children and all subsequent descendants

Download the report here.

Tuesday, 25 July 2017

If an Australian federal election was held today......


The sixteenth consecutive Newspoll shows the Labor Party leading the Liberal-Nationals Coalition.

This time by 53 to 47 per cent on a two-party preferred basis calculated on the preference flow at the July 2016 federal election.

The primary vote in this latest poll was: Coalition 36​ (​+1) Labor 37 (+1) Greens 9 (-1) One Nation 9​ (-2) Others 9 (+1)

The survey of 1,677 voters, taken between Thursday 20 July and Sunday 23 July 2017, has a margin of error of 2.4 per cent.

As the two party preferred percentages for Labor and the Coalition have remained unchanged for the last five Newspolls this is what the Australian Parliament might look like:

Swing percentage is based on most recent data from Newspoll on a two party preferred basis
and represents changes in seats for the Coalition and Labor Party only. Data source: Newspoll
The Australian, online, 23 July 2017


Friday, 30 June 2017

June 2017 and another disappointing Newspoll for Turnbull & Co


Political strategists in both the Liberal and National parties must be wondering what else they can possibly do to swing opinion polls in the Coalition's favour.

Terrafret isn’t working its magic as strongly as before, welfare bashing no longer draws the big crowds and, budget measures can’t disguise the general lack of policy direction.

The Australian, 26 June 2017:



The survey of 6843 voters from April to June shows Labor has a commanding lead over the ­Coalition of 53 per cent to 47 per cent in two-party terms at a ­national level and in every state except South Australia, where it has an even bigger advantage……

Support for Labor has increased from 39 to 42 per cent in Western Australia on first preferences in the past quarter, adding to a trend over the past year to make this one of Labor’s strongest states, compared to being one of the weakest at the last election.

While Labor’s primary-vote support in WA has surged almost 10 percentage points since the July election, the Coalition’s support has fallen by nine percentage points to 40 per cent……

The Coalition’s primary vote in Queensland has fallen from 43.2 per cent at the last election to 33 per cent in the quarterly Newspoll survey, the biggest slump in any state for the government.

While Queensland voters shifted against the government in the six months after the election, the Coalition’s support in South Australia remained steady until ­December and then fell from 35 to 29 per cent in primary terms……

The rise of One Nation has eroded the Coalition’s support in most states while Labor has tended to hold ground or slightly increase its appeal in each battleground, with its primary vote rising from 34.7 per cent at the election to 36 per cent in this quarterly Newspoll, unchanged from the previous three months…..

Monday, 12 June 2017

Crime remains comparatively low in the NSW Northern Rivers region during the first quarter of 2017


As communities in the NSW Northern Rivers have come to expect our region is not the worst when it comes to instances of recorded crime but it is not the best either.

In the first quarter of 2017 in Coffs Harbour-Grafton and Richmond-Tweed statistical areas recorded incidents for domestic violence, non-domestic assault, sexual assault, indecent assault & other sexual offences all rose, while Richmond-Tweed saw the number of people murdered rise from one to four.

Tweed and Clarence Valley local government areas had the highest recorded incidents for domestic violence in the Northern Rivers at 312 and 213 instances respectively and, Lismore and Tweed local government areas had the highest recorded incidents for sexual assault at 77 and 56 instances respectively.

Indecent assault & other sexual offences were most prevalent in the Lismore local government area at 107 instances.

While the dubious honour of highest recorded incidents for non-domestic violence goes to Tweed (292), Lismore (281) and Clarence Valley (278) local government areas.

Sadly, it would appear that crimes against the person are our forte thus far in 2017.

SYDNEY, RURAL AND REGIONAL NSW - MARCH 2015 TO MARCH 2016
                                          

SYDNEY, RURAL AND REGIONAL NSW - MARCH 2016 TO MARCH 2017


SYDNEY, RURAL AND REGIONAL NSW – CRIME RATE MARCH 2016 TO MARCH 2017



~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research, media release, 8 June 2017:

Crime remains low: NSW Recorded Crime Statistics quarterly update March 2017

None of the major crime categories have increased in NSW over the last two years. In the 24 months to March 2017, four of the 17 major offences were trending downward and the remaining 13 were stable.

The offences trending down were:
1. robbery with a weapon not a firearm (down 10.9%);
2. break and enter dwelling (down 5.9%);
3. steal from person (down 15.2%);
4. fraud (down 4.3%).

However, parts of the Hunter and Western NSW have experienced significant increases in particular crimes over the two year period to March 2017.

Newcastle and Lake Macquarie experienced a significant increase in four of the 17 major offences:  non-domestic assault (up 6.9%), steal from retail store (up 19.6%), steal from dwelling (up 8.7%) and malicious damage to property (up 9.6%).

The New England and North West have experienced significant increases in three of the 17 major offences: non-domestic assault (up 4.1%), break and enter - dwelling (up 16.2%) and steal from dwelling (up 20.8%).

The Far West and Orana have experienced significant increases in three major property offences: break and enter - dwelling (up 18.8%), motor vehicle theft (up 28.1%) and steal from retail store (up 28.0%).

Commenting on the results the Deputy Director of the Bureau, Jackie Fitzgerald, said that while it was reassuring that no major offences were trending upwards at the State level it should not be overlooked that some pockets of NSW were experiencing crime problems. 

“The growth in crimes in the West and North West of NSW is particularly concerning because the crime rates in these areas are already more than twice, and in some cases more than three times the State average.”

Thursday, 27 April 2017

Turnbull Government not exactly charging ahead in latest Newspoll - which is unlikely to foster calm and considered decision making on the part of the prime minister



These polling numbers represent a dangerous period for the people of Australia.

We already have Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull quickly popping over to a war zone this month for a photo opportunity in a flak jacket (left) and he is scheduled to meet with President Trump on 4 May 2017 to talk about the Korean situation, China and whatever thought bubble is exercising the U.S. president's mind at the time.

No prizes for suspecting Turnbull will offer more support for Trump's attempt to force a breakdown of the almost 64 year-old military armistice agreement between the United Nations and Korean People's Army & Chinese People's Volunteers and, a recommencement of the hostilities with North Korea.

After all, becoming a war leader is almost always good for polling numbers - at least in the first heady rush into combat - and both Turnbull and Trump have persistently low voter satisfaction levels which neither can currently shake off as well as unhealthy budget deficits and/or public debt levels*.

Both the U.S. governing Republican Party and the Australian governing Liberal-Nationals Coalition go the ballot box again in 2018, with mid-term elections for the U.S on 6 November and a general election in Australia anytime from 4 August 2018 through to 18 May 2019.

* In January 2017 the US Government budget deficit was an est. US$559 billion and public debt stood at est.US$14.8 trillion. While the Australian Government budget deficit stood at est. AUD$42.5 billion and public debt at AUD$323.8 billion net

Wednesday, 29 March 2017

The Turnbull Government may strike a pose each and every day - that won't change the mood in the electorate


Right now the political colour of Australian government is Liberal-Nationals 3 (Federal, NSW, Tas) to Labor 6 (ACT, NT, Qld, SA, Vic, WA).

The Turnbull Government next goes to the polls at a federal general election sometime between 4 August 2018 and 18 May 2019.

Before then Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania face the voters again at state elections.

Between August 2018 and May 2019 News South Wales and Victoria also have elections.

While the Northern Territory doesn’t have to think about a state election again until 2020. [Australian Parliament website, States and territories: next election dates]

The Liberal and Nationals political fight for voters hearts and minds is going to be fierce and is likely to be nasty given they have so few allies at state government level.

This is what they have to overcome to regain the electorates confidence in both tiers of government - their own entitlement culture, a predilection for budgetary cost cutting at the expense of the poor and vulnerable which smacks of class warfare, an ideological straightjacket hampering vital national policies and open hostility to ordinary wage earners.

Social media is beginning to draw all these strands together………….

The AIM Network, 18 March 2017:

Sally McManus is the hero of workers. Turnbull is welcome to try to villainise her, but in doing so, he’s only making himself the enemy.

In her first television interview as head representative of people who work, McManus was involved in what media-insiders call a ‘gotcha moment’. Courtesy of the get-me-a-gotcha-moment-in-place-of-any-useful-political-analysis-queen, Leigh Sales. In their version of events, McManus was in hot water for backing the safety of workers at any cost, even if that cost is breaking laws designed to help employers shirk any responsibility for protecting people who work for them.

Right wingers squealed in delight when Sales drew supposably controversial comments out of McManus so early in the piece. The attacks came thick and fast from all the obvious places, including many journalists, who tut-tutted about law-breaking as if the law-breaking in question was home invasion or carjacking. Even those from Fairfax, who were more than happy to illegally strike in protest at their own colleagues being sacked, apparently can’t see the irony of criticising workers who do the same thing when a colleague is killed. Christopher Pyne, jumping on McManus like a seagull on a chip, called on her to resign. Turnbull, grasping for something to divert from his own failures, said he couldn’t work with her.

A year ago, this whole episode would have been yet another predictable, not worth mentioning, union bashing media-beat-up. But things have changed in the past few months. People have woken up to wealth inequality. Australia saw this wake up contribute to Brexit and the election of Trump. Closer to home, we’ve had One Nation pop up in Turnbull’s double dissolution, only to be over-egged and come crashing back down in the WA election, where, lo and behold, Labor achieved an 8% swing in their primary vote without any help from minors.

Throughout this time, Turnbull’s government continues to be a mixture of insipid do-nothing indecision, scandal and destruction, infighting and chaos, ideological bastardy and economic incompetence while they sidestep from one policy disaster to the next. Amongst the attacks to Medicare, the undermining of welfare through the Centrelink debacle, the failure on energy policy, the distractions from fringe fundamentalists such as anti-marriage-equality and repealing hate-speech laws, there is one policy which stands shiny and red as the most detestable, a pimple on a bum of failure: an attack to wages through a cut to penalty rates. This decision was the nail in Turnbull’s coffin. Commentators and Federal Liberals can claim all they like that the electoral result in WA was a result of local issues. But there is absolutely no doubting that a cut to wages saw voters melting off Liberals like sweat from Turnbull’s, and Hanson’s brow.

Let’s get something clear. Wages are the central concern of the electorate. Yes, most of us have other concerns, including climate change, education, healthcare, infrastructure, housing affordability, energy policy, immigration, just to name a few. But first on Maslow’s Hierarchy of political needs for left-wing and right-wing voters alike is an economic indicator which is being felt personally in homes from Broome to Launceston, from Townsville to Bankstown: record low wage growth. To put it bluntly, workers aren’t paid enough for the productive labour they contribute to the economy. There is plenty of money being made. It’s just not reaching those who create it….

Read the full article here.

And polls are showing a level of unhappiness that is hard to miss........

Essential Report, 21 March 2017:


The Liberal Party’s main attributes were – too close to the big corporate and financial interest (71%), will promise anything to win votes (71%), out of touch with ordinary people (68%) and divided (68%).
 Main changes since June last year were – divided (up 16%) and has a good team of leaders (down 9%).

The Sydney Morning Herald, 26 March 2017:



Thursday, 9 March 2017

Australians do not trust banks with their super, 7 out of 10 want a not-for-profit system, Essential Research polling reveals


AAP MediaNet, media release, 3 March 2017:

Australians do not trust banks with their super, 7 out of 10 want not-for-profit system, new polling reveals

Explosive new polling shows that when it comes to superannuation, most Australians don’t trust the big banks and over two-thirds want the system to run on a not-for-profit basis with all returns to members.
The Essential poll of 1000 people, commissioned by Industry Super Australia, has found that only 31% trust that the banks will ensure the superannuation system works in their best interest. This compares to 38% for the Federal Government; 61% for the Fair Work Commission; and 69% for Industry Super Funds.  
Consumers feel strongly that their interests should be the sole focus - 70% believe all super funds should be not-for-profit with all returns to members rather than split with shareholders; just 6% disagree.
Industry Super Australia chief executive, David Whiteley, says the results send a clear message the public want superannuation to work solely in their interests and not as a profit-making opportunity for the banks’ wealth management machines.
“When it comes to super, the banks are legally required to act in the best interest of their customers; most Australians don't believe they do," said Whiteley.
“Consumers know aggressive cross-selling of advice, insurance and super is designed to boost shareholder profits rather than leave them better off.” 
“The banks’ relentless lobbying to remove consumer default protections could result in people ending up in under-performing funds and a nest egg that’s tens, even hundreds, of thousands of dollars short”.
“Australians have told us what they think – they don’t trust the banks and believe their culture and profit motive are at odds with the purpose of super,” said Whiteley.
It is a sentiment shared by 58% of respondents who believe the banks would use the compulsory nature of super to exploit fund members.
Two thirds of Australians agree that the banks are already too powerful and giving them more of the superannuation market would make the situation worse.
Instead 57% want a small number of high quality super funds run by trusted providers rather than a large menu of bank offerings. 
“Public opinion clearly runs counter to the banks’ efforts to change the super system to suit their vertically integrated business models. Astute policymakers will be listening,” said Whiteley.
The big bank CEOs will appear before a parliamentary inquiry this Friday and early next week. The Standing Committee on Economics’ Review of the Four Major Banks hearings are set for 3, 7, 8 March.
ASIC has recently launched court proceedings against Westpac for a 3-year sales campaign that alleges staff were rewarded bonuses for shifting customers from external super funds into a bank fund. ASIC alleges that Westpac failed its best interests duty to consumers; breached financial licence conditions and Corporations Law and failed to ensure related financial services entities provided services honestly and fairly.
Industry Super Australia provides policy, research and advocacy on behalf of 15 not-for-profit Industry SuperFunds who are the custodians of the retirement savings of five million Australians.

Friday, 27 January 2017

Disadvantage, discrimination, disability, despair and distance still negatively impact on health outcomes for Australians - but as a population we are living longer




# People living in the lowest socioeconomic areas are more likely to have poor health and to have higher rates of illness, disability and death than people who live in the highest socioeconomic areas. If all Australians had the same death rates as the 20% of Australians living in the highest socioeconomic area, there would have been about 54,200 fewer deaths in 2009–2011.

# On a range of health measures, people living in the lowest socioeconomic areas (that is, areas of most disadvantage) tend to fare worse than people living in the highest socioeconomic areas (that is, areas of least disadvantage). For example, according to AIHW analysis of the ABS Australian Health Survey, in 2011–12, people living in the lowest socioeconomic areas were 1.6 times as likely to have chronic kidney disease and 2.2 times as likely to have coronary heart disease as people living the highest socioeconomic areas.

# There have been some improvements in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander health in recent years, including decreases in smoking and infant mortality and in avoidable deaths from circulatory and kidney diseases. However, there is still a significant gap in health outcomes, including life expectancy at birth, between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians. The causes of this gap are complex, and include differences in the social determinants of health, risk factors, and access to appropriate health care.

# In 2013, 29% of the Australian population lived in regional and remote areas: 18% in Inner regional areas, 8.9% in Outer regional areas, 1.4% in Remote areas and 0.9% in Very remote areas. Australians living outside Major cities tend to have higher rates of disease and injury than people in Major cities, and they are also more likely to engage in health behaviours that can lead to adverse health outcomes.

# Australians living in rural and remote areas tend to have lower life expectancy and higher rates of disease and injury than people living in Major cities (see 'Chapter 5.11 Rural and remote health').
In 2009–2011, people living in Remote and Very remote areas had mortality rates 1.4 times as high as people living in Major cities. For nearly all causes of death, rates were higher for people living outside Major cities, with people in Remote and Very remote areas faring the worst. For example, the rate of dying due to a land transport accident was more than 4 times as high in Remote and Very Remote areas as in Major cities.
People in regional and remote areas are more likely to die prematurely than their Major city counterparts. While fewer than 3 in 10 people (29%) live in regional and remote areas, deaths in these areas accounted for almost 2 in 5 (38%) of premature deaths in 2011–13.
The premature mortality rate among people living in Remote areas was 1.6 times as high as the rate among people in Major cities, and in Very remote areas it was 2.2 times as high (see 'Chapter 3.2 Premature mortality').
Disease prevalence is generally higher in rural and remote areas of Australia than in Major cities. In 2014–15, based on self-reported data from the NHS, people living in Inner regional and Outer regional/Remote areas of Australia were more likely than people in Major cities to have arthritis, asthma, COPD, and a number of other chronic health conditions (ABS 2015e).
People living in rural and remote areas are, on average, also more likely than their urban counterparts to engage in lifestyle behaviours that can lead to adverse health outcomes (such as smoking, insufficient physical activity, and risky alcohol consumption). These poorer health outcomes may also reflect a range of social and other factors that can be detrimental to health, including a level of disadvantage with regard to educational and employment opportunities; income; and access to goods and services.

# Just under 1 in 5 Australians (4.2 million people) reported having a disability in 2012. People with disability experience significantly poorer health than people without disability. Over half (51%) of people aged 15–64 with severe or profound limitation(s) in communication, mobility or self-care reported 'poor' or 'fair' health compared with 5.6% of those without such limitations. A higher proportion of people aged 15–64 with these limitations had mental health conditions (50% compared with 7.7% for those without).

# Unemployed people have a higher risk of death and have more illness and disability than those of similar age who are employed (Mathers & Schofield 1998). The psychosocial stress caused by unemployment has a strong impact on physical and mental health and wellbeing (Dooley et al. 1996). For some, unemployment is caused by illness, but for many it is unemployment itself that causes health problems through its psychological consequences and the financial problems it brings.

# In 2014–15, 50% of patients were admitted within 35 days of being placed on the elective surgery waiting list, 90% were admitted within 253 days and 1.8% waited more than 1 year. The median waiting time is lower than it was between 2010–11 and 2013–14 (36 days).
The median waiting time for Indigenous Australians (42 days) was higher than for other Australians (35 days), and a higher proportion of Indigenous Australians waited more than a year for elective surgery than other Australians (2.3% and 1.8%, respectively).
The longest median waiting times were for the surgical specialties Ear, nose and throat surgery; Ophthalmology; and Orthopaedic surgery (73, 70, and 64 days, respectively). Cardio-thoracic surgery had the shortest median waiting time (18 days).

# Hospital elective surgery waiting lists…. 2015-16…uncontactable/died [before hospital admission] 7,295…Excludes data for the Australian Capital Territory, which were not available at the time of publication.
Not contactable/died:
NSW 2,234
VIC 2,234
QLD 703
WA 1,003
SA 611
TAS 361
ACT n.a.
NT 141

# In 2013, more than 1 in 3 deaths (34%) in Australia were 'premature' (that is, they occurred before the age of 75)—substantially lower than the 43% in 1997 (AIHW 2015b).
The three leading causes of premature death for all Australians were coronary heart disease, lung cancer and suicide. Nearly 1 in 5 deaths (18%) among people aged 25–44 were due to suicide (AIHW 2015b).
The rate of premature deaths among Indigenous Australians is higher than among non-Indigenous Australians for both males and females across every age group. Between 2009 and 2013, 81% of all Indigenous deaths were of people aged under 75, compared with 34% for non-Indigenous Australians (ABS 2015b) (see 'Chapter 3.2 Premature mortality').

# after adjusting for differences in age structure, in the period from 2009 to 2013, the mortality rate for Indigenous Australians who died from all potentially avoidable causes was more than 3 times the rate for non-Indigenous Australians (351 and 110 deaths per 100,000 population, respectively) (see 'Chapter 5.7 How healthy are Indigenous Australians?').

# The rate of premature mortality varied considerably between states and territories in 2011–2013 (Figure 3.2.3). After adjusting for diff­erences in age structure, the Australian Capital Territory had the lowest rate (173 deaths per 100,000 people aged under 75), followed by Victoria (192) and Western Australia (205). The age-standardised premature mortality rate in the Northern Territory (388) was more than twice as high as the rate in the Australian Capital Territory. The Northern Territory has the highest proportion of Indigenous residents (about 30%) of all Australian states and territories and the majority of the Northern Territory's land mass is classified as remote (Taylor & Bell 2013). The following section, 'Inequalities in premature mortality', describes the impact of remoteness of residence and Indigenous status on premature death.

# The majority of Australians live in Major cities, with fewer than 3 in 10 people (29% of the population) living in Regional and Remote areas (see 'Chapter 5.11 Rural and remote health'). Despite this, in 2011–2013, deaths in Regional and Remote areas accounted for 38% of premature deaths. Premature mortality rates increased with remoteness. The premature mortality rate among people living in Remote areas was 1.6 times as high as the rate among people in Major cities, and in Very remote areas it was 2.2 times as high.

# Nearly 2 in 5 people (39%) who died in 2013 were aged 85 and over….The most common cause of death in 2013 for people aged 85 and over was coronary heart disease (17%), followed by dementia (12%).

# Life expectancy at birth in Australia has climbed steadily over time, and is now more than 30 years longer than it was in the late 1800s (Figure 1.3.1). For example, life expectancy for males and females born in 2014 was 80.3 years and 84.4 years respectively (ABS 2015c), whereas males and females born in 1890 could expect to live to 47.2 years and 50.8 years respectively (ABS 2014b)…..
In 2012, a newborn boy in Australia could expect to live 62.4 years without disability and another 17.5 years with some form of disability, and a newborn girl 64.5 years without disability and 19.8 years with some form of disability (see Glossary) (AIHW 2014b). Between 1998 and 2012, the disability-free life expectancy for males rose by 4.4 years, which was more than the gain in male life expectancy over that period (4 years). However, the increase in years free of disability for females was 2.4 years, compared with a 2.8 years gain in female life expectancy (AIHW 2014b).

#A man turning 85 in 2013 could expect to live another 6.1 years, and a woman the same age could expect another 7.1 years.

Thursday, 19 January 2017

How Malcolm Turnbull's approval rating compares with seven other national leaders


OVERVIEW


The 2017 Edelman Trust Barometer finds that two-thirds of the countries we survey are now "distrusters" (under 50 percent trust in the mainstream institutions of business, government, media and NGOs to do what is right), up from just over half in2016. This is a profound crisis in trust that has its origins in the Great Recession of2008. The aftershocks from the stunning meltdown of the global economy are still being felt today, with consequences yet unknown.

Like the second and third waves of a tsunami, ongoing globalization and technological change are now further weakening people's trust in global institutions, which they believe have failed to protect them from the negative eects of these forces. The celebrated benefits of free trade—affordable products for mass consumption and the raising of a billion people out of poverty—have suddenly been supplanted by concerns about the outsourcing of jobs to lower-cost markets. The impact of automation is being felt, especially in lower-skilled jobs, as driverless trucks and retail stores without cashiers become reality.

We have moved beyond the point of trust being simply a key factor in product purchase or selection of employment opportunity; it is now the deciding factor in whether a society can function. As trust in institutions erodes, the basic assumptions of fairness, shared values and equal opportunity traditionally upheld by "the system" are no longer taken for granted. We observe deep disillusion on both the left and the right, who share opposition to globalization, innovation, deregulation, and multinational institutions. There is growing despair about the future, a lack of confidence in the possibility of a better life for one's family. The 2017 Edelman Trust Barometer finds that only 15 percent of the general population believe the present system is working, while 53 percent do not and 32 percent are uncertain.


MALCOLM BLIGH TURNBULL (AUSTRALIA)

Essential Report
, 17 January 2017:

DONALD JOHN TRUMP (USA)

9 News, 18 January 2017:

President-elect Donald Trump takes office this week with dismal approval and popularity numbers, according to polls out Tuesday, underscoring the deep divisions among Americans as the New York businessman prepares for his inauguration.
A CNN/ORC poll showed 40 percent of respondents approved of the way Trump has been handling the transition period heading into Friday's inauguration, a figure that's sharply lower than any incoming US president in recent history.
Trump will enter the Oval Office as the least popular incoming president in at least four decades, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll…….
The CNN poll showed Trump lagging more than 20 points behind the approval ratings of his three most recent predecessors and 44 points below that of President Barack Obama as he prepared to enter the Oval Office in 2009.
Obama had an 84 percent approval rating ahead of his inauguration, Bill Clinton scored 67 percent approval in late December 1992 and 61 percent approved of George W. Bush's transition in poll figures from January 2001, CNN said.
Forty percent of respondents told the Washington Post-ABC survey they have a favorable impression of the incoming president, compared with 54 percent who said they have an unfavorable impression.
That makes Trump the most unpopular incoming president since at least Jimmy Carter in 1977, the Washington Post said.
Forty-four percent said Trump is qualified to serve as president, as opposed to 52 percent who said he's not qualified, the Washington Post-ABC poll said.
When asked how much confidence they have that Trump will make the right decisions for the country's future, 38 percent said they had a great deal or a good amount of confidence. Sixty-one percent said they had just some or no confidence.
The CNN/ORC poll has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points. The Washington Post-ABC poll has a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.

JUSTIN PIERRE JAMES TRUDEAU (CANADA)

CBC News, 16 January 2017:

Justin Trudeau and his Liberal government continue to enjoy strong support as the prime minister makes stops in Nova Scotia and New Brunswick on his cross-country tour Monday and Tuesday.
A poll released Monday by Corporate Research Associates of Halifax suggests 73 per cent of residents in Atlantic Canada are satisfied with the performance of the federal government, which is one percentage point lower than in August 2016.
The proportion of those polled who were dissatisfied with the performance of Trudeau's government was unchanged at 20 per cent. Six per cent of those questioned did not offer an opinion and one per cent said it is too soon to decide how the government is performing.
Trudeau's personal popularity stood at 62 per cent, which is down three percentage points from August.

THERESA MARY MAY (UNITED KINGDOM)

Sky News, 13 January 2017:

Theresa May has enjoyed the longest opinion poll 'honeymoon' of any Conservative prime minister since the 1950s.
May's premiership reaches the six-month mark on Friday, during which time her party has opened up an average poll lead over Labour of 14 points.
No Tory government in modern times has been in such a commanding position at this stage of a prime minister's time in office.
But pollsters have warned that the party's performance is more a reflection of Labour weakness than Tory strength, and could crumble if Brexit negotiations run into difficulty.
The Press Association has analysed the poll ratings for every government of the past 60 years precisely six months into the term of a new prime minister.
Only one government of any political colour has beaten May's current rating: the Labour administration led by Tony Blair, which had a colossal 29-point lead in the polls six months after Mr Blair took office in 1997.
By contrast, Margaret Thatcher's government was an average of five points behind in the polls, while John Major was six points down.
The Tories were one point ahead of Labour when David Cameron reached the six- month mark.

VLADIMIR VLADIMIROVICH PUTIN (RUSSIA)

Sputnik News, 22 December 2016:

More than 60 percent of Russians trust President Putin, with the level of confidence in the president increasing over the last months, a trust rating published by the Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) showed on Thursday.
According to the poll, Putin's actions as the Russian president are supported by 85.8 percent of Russians…
The all-Russian opinion poll was conducted by VCIOM on December 17-18, 2016, in 130 cities around the country among 1600 people. The maximum margin of error is no higher than 3.5 percent.

SIMON WILLIAM "BILL" ENGLISH (NEW ZEALAND)

TVNZ News Now, 21 December 2016:

Support for National fell to 45 per cent at the start of December, but it's not clear if the party's leadership change had anything to do with the latest poll.
The Roy Morgan poll shows support for a Labour/Green alliance is up to 43 per cent and an election held now would have a close result, as a result of National's 4.5 per cent fall.
The poll was carried out between November 28 and December 11, covering the week before former Prime Minister John Key's shock resignation and the following week which saw Jonathan Coleman and Judith Collins contest Mr Key's eventual successor Bill English for the leadership.

SHINZO ABE (JAPAN)

The Japan Times, 18 December 2016:

The support rate for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's Cabinet has tumbled to 54.8 percent from the previous month, according to a two-day nationwide poll, with over half of the respondents viewing the outcome of last week's Japan-Russia summit negatively, along with the unpopular legalization of casinos.
The Cabinet's approval rating compared with 60.7 percent in November, while its disapproval rating rose to 34.1 percent, up 3.7 points.
In the survey, conducted through Sunday by Kyodo News, 54.3 percent had a negative view of the summit between Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Russian President Vladimir Putin held Thursday and Friday in Japan.
Questioned about the Diet's legalization of casinos the same week, 69.6 percent opposed the law and 24.6 percent supported it.
The same survey, meanwhile, showed 75.3 percent said they would not want a so-called integrated casino resort to be built in their neighborhood and 21.9 percent said they would support one.
Kyodo conducted the poll on 1,456 randomly selected households and received 1,018 valid responses.

JOKO WIDODO (INDONESIA)

The Sydney Morning Herald
, 5 November 2016:

In contrast, Jokowi engineered a comeback. His approval rating stands at between 60 and 70 per cent in the various polls, close to his honeymoon highs.
And he has transformed a feeble grip on the parliament into a dominant one. His ruling coalition now enjoys 70 per cent of the seats in parliament.

Wednesday, 4 January 2017

As New South Wales grows so does the NSW Northern Rivers


The New South Wales population continues to grow and projections indicate that an additional 9.9 million people will live in this state by 2036.

The Northern Rivers region is part of this growth over the next 20 years and, local government areas with large population centres, multiple coastal tourist destinations or established international reputations are expected to sustain modest if erratic annual growth.

NEW SOUTH WALES POPUATION PROJECTION

Northern Rivers Region:

The tables shows the annual average growth rate for every five year period from 2001 to 2031. Growth rates for 2001-06 and 2006-11 are based on historical estimated resident population data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Growth rates from 2011-16 onwards are based on the 2014 NSW population projections. [NSW Dept. Planning & Environment, Population Projections]

Symbols show drivers of population change.

LGA
2001-06
2006-11
2011-16
2016-21
2021-26
2026-31
2031-36
2011-36
BALLINA
1.00%
1.00%
1.00%
1.00%
1.00%
0.00%
0.00%
1.00%
LGA
2001-06
2006-11
2011-16
2016-21
2021-26
2026-31
2031-36
2011-36
BYRON
1.00%
0.00%
1.00%
1.00%
1.00%
1.00%
1.00%
1.00%
LGA
2001-06
2006-11
2011-16
2016-21
2021-26
2026-31
2031-36
2011-36
CLARENCE VALLEY
0.00%
1.00%
1.00%
1.00%
1.00%
0.00%
0.00%
1.00%
LGA
2001-06
2006-11
2011-16
2016-21
2021-26
2026-31
2031-36
2011-36
KYOGLE
-1.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%









LGA
2001-06
2006-11
2011-16
2016-21
2021-26
2026-31
2031-36
2011-36
LISMORE
0.00%
1.00%
1.00%
1.00%
1.00%
1.00%
0.00%
1.00%
LGA
2001-06
2006-11
2011-16
2016-21
2021-26
2026-31
2031-36
2011-36
RICHMOND VALLEY
1.00%
1.00%
1.00%
1.00%
1.00%
0.00%
0.00%
1.00%