Tuesday 20 November 2007

Roy Morgan Research released Sunday 19 November says marginals too mixed to call

"On November 15-17, with one week to go to the Federal election, L-NP two-party preferred support is 44.5% (up 1% from the face-to-face Morgan Poll conducted November 10/11), ALP 55.5% (down 1%).
This represents a swing of 8.2% to the ALP since the 2004 Federal election.  However, in the crucial L-NP marginal seats, where Labor needs to win 16 seats to win Government, the swing is slightly less (7.7% to ALP) and varies greatly by seats and States.
The ALP looks set to win between 14 and 24 seats, which means the election result cannot yet be called."
"New South Wales: 8.8% swing to the ALP in the seven key marginal seats surveyed. The swing required to lose each is Parramatta 0.9%, Wentworth 2.5%, Lindsay 2.9%, Eden-Monaro 3.3%, Bennelong 4%, Dobell 4.8% and Page 5.5%."
Summary of Morgan Poll November 15-17 findings:

Most risible media comments of the 2007 Federal Election

From a Sunday Mail editorial on 18 November, just six days out from polling day.
 
"That Prime Minister John Howard's Government stands this morning under threat is a mystery."
 
"The Sunday Mail believes the Coalition is best placed to govern Australia for the next three years."
 
Where has this editor been for the last eleven years?

Monday 19 November 2007

Just for fun - a Daily Telegraph readers poll on Howard's election chances

The Daily Telegraph online readers poll which began on Sunday now has 4,964 votes in at 4.47pm. today.
 
QUESTION: Is John Howard wily enough to still snatch victory?
Yes - he still must have something up his sleeve.      48%   (2396 votes)
No - just look at the polls.                                        51%   (2568 votes)
 
It seems some people are still expecting or fearing that now famous rabbit in the hat.
 
Bookmakers odds are still shortening in Labor's favour and yet another Liberal, former NSW Parliamentary Leader Peter Debnam, has taken a swipe at John Howard's campaign strategy.
The Daily Telegraph today:

John Howard, master of the dimwitted remark

It must have been something he caught off a White House toilet seat. On the same day Australia learnt the contents of the latest UN synthesis report on climate change, John Howard told us all that climate change may be serious "but the world will not end tomorrow because of it".
 
An Australian prime minister may have been able to say something like that twenty years ago. John Howard himself may have gotten away with such a remark even eleven years ago. But not today. The time to go slowly-slowly has long since past.
 
Many worlds may end tomorrow because of climate change.  A farmer's world may end because long-term weather changes and water scarcity have meant that crops failed for years on end.
A sea-change retiree's world may end because their retirement home was destroyed by severe storms or is now being lapped by seawater due to sudden coastal erosion.
A worker in the city's life may end because all the money in the world can't put enough food on the family table anymore due to increasing world-wide food shortages and famine.
 
It has to be said. Howard's head is now burrowed so far into the sand that even his ar*se is beginning to disappear.
 
Copy of IPPC Fourth Assessment Report: