The
Australian Prime Minister for Fossil Fuels and Liberal MP for Cook, Scott Morrison, has been repeatedly insisting
since he came to office on 24 August 2018 that Australia is on target to meet
its Paris Agreement greenhouse gas emissions targets.
Apparently he
is telling journalists that “the
business-as-usual model gets us there in a canter”.
Business-as-usual of course includes those cuts to climate change mitigation programs Morrison made as federal treasurer - including no further funding for the Abbott Government's Emissions Reduction Fund (ERF) which has so far failed to purchase enough abatement to outpace Australia's emissions growth.
Those agencies outside of Morrison's ‘magic circle’ are quite frankly contradicting his prediction of success.......
The COAG
Energy Security Council’s Energy Security
Board expects that Morrison’s refusal to revive National Energy Guarantee
legislation will see the electricity sector “fall short of the emissions
reduction target of 26% below 2005 levels”.
According to
Dept. of Environment and Energy total
annual emissions for the year to December 2013 fell by 0.8%.
No report was issued for the year ending December 2014, however annual
emissions rose by 0.4% for the year ending December 2015 and annual
emissions for the year to December 2016 rose by 1.4%.
While the Dept.
of Environment and Energy's, Quarterly
Update of Australia’s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory: December 2017 stated:
Annual emissions for the
year to December 2017 are estimated to be 533.7 Mt CO2 -e. This represents a 1.5% increase
in emissions when compared with the previous year. Over the year to
December 2017, there were increases in emissions from the stationary energy
(excluding electricity), transport, fugitive emissions, industrial processes
and product use, waste and agriculture sectors. These increases were partially
offset by a decline in emissions from the electricity sector. The annual
increases in stationary energy (excluding electricity) and fugitive emissions
were largely driven by an increase in LNG exports. [my
yellow highlighting]
The
independent Climate
Works Australia reported on 6 September 2018:
Australia is not yet on
track to meet its emissions reduction targets under the Paris Agreement but
there are many opportunities to still get there, according to new research
released today.
The ClimateWorks
Australia report, Tracking Progress to net zero emissions, found Australia
needed to double its emissions reduction progress to achieve the federal
government’s target of 26-28 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030, and triple
progress to reach net zero emissions by 2050.
The report found
Australia’s emissions were 11 per cent below 2005 levels in 2017 but have been
steadily increasing since 2013. If Australia sustained the rate of improvement
in emissions intensity it had achieved between 2005 and 2013, it could meet the
government's 2030 target. But progress has stalled in most sectors and reversed
overall.
Climate Works’
latest report, Tracking
progress to net zero emissions: National progress on reducing emissions across
the Australian economy and outlook to 2030, was released in September
2018 and although cautiously optimistic it doesn’t suggest that a Morrison
Government would be able to just canter towards the commitments given in Paris:
This report uses
findings from the Deep Decarbonisation Pathways Project (DDPP) and compares
these with the Australian Government's emissions data and projections to
examine whether Australia is on track for a net zero pathway and for its first
commitments under the Paris Agreement on climate change to reduce emissions by
26 to 28 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030. It assesses recent progress since
2005 and the outlook to 2030.
In common with 179 other
countries who ratified the Paris Agreement, Australia has committed to keeping
global warming well below 2 degrees, aiming to limit warming to 1.5 degrees and
to reach net zero emissions. For developed countries like Australia, a 2 degree
limit is generally accepted to mean reaching net zero emissions by 2050 – the
majority of states and territories have agreed to this goal. Limiting global
warming to well below 2 degrees or 1.5 degrees would require an earlier date.
Australia’s current
emissions reduction target is 26 to 28 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030. This
is less ambitious than the Climate Change Authority’s recommended target range
of 45 to 65 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030 for Australia’s contribution to
a 2 degree goal (CCA 2015). To make sure the world is on track, all countries
in the Paris Agreement have been asked to consider whether their current target
is ambitious enough.
We already know
Australia can reach net zero emissions by 2050. The Pathways to Deep
Decarbonisation in 2050 (DDPP) report (ClimateWorks et al 2014) identified the
emissions reductions potential to put Australia on a pathway to net zero in 2050
while the economy continues to grow…
In 2017 Australia’s
emissions were around 11 per cent below 2005 levels. This is an increase from
their lowest point in 2013. Overall progress was due to strong reductions in
the land sector, while emissions rose in most other sectors. Although there
were improvements at the whole of economy level and in some sectors,
improvements on average were not equivalent to the pathway to net zero
emissions by 2050.
Emissions are higher in
buildings, industry and transport than they were in 2005. Emissions are lower
in the land sector, with the reduction being larger than increases in other
sectors. Electricity emissions fell slightly…
There were times of
reasonable emissions intensity improvements in industry and buildings but, as
with the electricity sector, these improvements then slowed or reversed. This
occurred alongside the repeal of the carbon price and related policies. Energy
intensity improved in these sectors, suggesting better energy efficiency, but
not at the rate needed for net zero. And in industry, some of this improvement
was driven by declines in energy-intensive manufacturing….
Without further policies, Australia will not be on track
for the net zero pathway or the Government's 2030 target. ClimateWorks’ research previously
identified potential emissions reductions on the net zero pathway and this
report shows where this potential is not yet being unlocked. The national
process of developing Australia’s long term emissions reduction strategy
provides an opportunity to unlock this remaining potential and get on track to
achieving net zero emissions by 2050, as do similar processes in many state and
territory governments. [my yellow highlighting]
