A little snatch of catchup

A few things of interest.....

Clarence Valley, NSW

* Much like the saplings in her hand, Hayley Talbot is hoping her idea to help local bushfire-affected areas will sprout and grow tall.

Ms Talbot, through her business Blanc Space, and project partner ex-professional surfer Daniel Ross have created the Caring for the Clarence project, in which 5000 trees will be planted to help rebuild the local koala population ravaged by bushfires.

Partnering with the NSW Government’s Save Our Species program to fund the initiative, Ms Talbot said she wanted to contribute to the area in a tangible way.

“I wanted to do something that has some longevity, that would help us as a community and help our homeland heal,” she said.

While the effort to plant 5000 trees on private properties around the Mororo and Woombah area may seem like a mammoth task for a group reduced in numbers by COVID-19 restrictions, Ms Talbot said they worked at it one tree at a time.

“I really feel like it’s been a great example of what any community member can do if they’re passionate and energetic,” she said.

Guided by conservation scientists and using trees of local provenance, the program used data from Google Earth combined with information on koala sightings to plant areas of use to sustain the population.

“From there it was about engaging with local property owners because every tree we’ve planted has been on private land,” Ms Talbot said….. [The Daily Telegraph, 1 July 2020]

* Clarence Valley local government area now eligible for federal government drought support administered by St. Vincent de Paul until end of 2020. [Queensland Country Life, 2 July 2020]

One of the largest capital works programs ever seen in the Clarence has passed through council, and is set to provide a $70.6 million investment in local roads and infrastructure during this financial year.

At Clarence Valley Council’s June 23 meeting councillors voted to adopt the 2020-21 budget, paving the way for a significant economic boost to the region.

“A significant capital works program totalling $70.6 million has been agreed for the 2020/21 financial year,” Clarence Valley Council’s general manager Ashley Lindsay said.

“The key features are $22 million to road and bridge infrastructure projects and approximately $32 million allocated to open spaces, community facility and building projects.” Mr Lindsay said an additional $5.2 million will be generated from the final year of a three-year special rate variation which commenced 2018/2019.

“The majority of these funds will be spent on roads and infrastructure asset renewals.

“This is the final year of council’s four-year financial improvement plan adopted in June 2017, which lays the foundations for the long-term financial well being of the organisation, and the services, facilities and infrastructure it provides for the community,” he said…. [The Daily Telegraph, 3 July 2020]

COVID-19 Pandemic

* 44% of all those in residential aged care who caught COVID-19 and 9% of older people receiving care services in the home died as a result of this viral infection [Australian Dept. of Health, 5 July 2020]

* COVID-19 growth rate graph 

[ABC News, 9 July 2020]

Liberal Party Politics

* Finance Minister Mathias Cormann, the man who revived Arnold Schwarzenegger’s “economic girly man’’ insult in the Australian political lexicon and privately called Scott Morrison “narcissistic” is set to quit politics sparking a cabinet reshuffle.

Australia’s longest serving Finance Minister has denied growing speculation he will quit politics for months, but has responded with notable silence to three reports in the last month that he plans to resign.

But his departure also is set to remind voters of the ongoing leadership fallout within the Coalition over the ascension of Prime Minister Scott Morrison and his increasing popularity, dominance and control of the government in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Last month, there was even speculation that he might return to Europe in a diplomatic posting for the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.

But the Belgian-born Liberal senator told friends he is more attracted to making some money in the corporate sector. [News.com.au, 3 July 2020]

* By the end of this year we will be half-way through this current term of government.

Having decided not to recontest the next election, I can confirm that I have advised the Prime Minister that the end of this year would be an appropriate time for an orderly transition in my portfolio. [Australian Finance Minister Mathias Cormann, Statement, 4 July 2020]

* THOUGHT FOR THE DAY: It's only taken PM Scott Morrison a little over 23 months to quietly push Dutton-supporter Mathias Cormann out of the Australian Parliament. Who is next? [@no_filter-Yamba, 5 July 2020]

* The NSW Liberal Party has appointed a former ICAC executive to investigate claims the minutes of the local branch of Prime Minister’s right-hand man Alex Hawke were doctored to secure his power base.

In the most significant development since the scandal was first revealed by News Corp almost two years ago, the party office has confirmed in an email sent to affected branch members on Friday that it has enlisted the former head of the corruption watchdog’s investigations unit, Michael Symons, to head up the internal inquiry.

Liberal MP Alex Hawke. Picture: Kym Smith

The party head office has been in internal turmoil since being made aware of allegations that Mr Hawke’s factionally-aligned heads of the Baulkham Hills branch in his electorate of Mitchell changed the minutes to block the memberships of 10 new conservative members.

Had the new members been recorded accurately at the meeting — held in a western Sydney funeral home — Mr Hawke’s Centre Right faction would have lost control of the branch, potentially putting his preselection in jeopardy.

Control of branches is critical in influencing Federal, State and local government preselections. At a State level, the Baulkham Hills branch is critical for NSW Police Minister David Elliott. [The Daily Telegraph, 5 July 2020]

Eden-Monaro Federal By-election

* At 7:30pm on Saturday 4 July 2020, when First Preference vote counting ceased for the night in the NSW Eden-Monaro federal electorate, it was apparent that an est. 62,22% of voters were not having a bar of Scott Morrison & his hard right Lib-Nats government. [Australian Electoral Commission, 4 July 2020]

At the same time in bushfire ravaged little Cobargo at least 59.68% of local voters refused to give the Morrison Government candidate their First Preference vote.

Even after they appear to have been not so subtly threatened:

the residents of Cobargo – the centre of a tragedy in January – swung to the Liberals on Saturday night. Perhaps this is a bushfire effect in the sense locals accepted the government’s core message during the campaign: the fire clean up will move much faster if you send Fiona Kotvojs to Canberra, rather than a member of the opposition. [The Guardian, 5 July 2020]

* By early Sunday evening 61.71% of all voters in Eden-Monaro who cast a formal vote had refused to give the Morrison Government’s candidate their First Preference vote. So the inevitable happened…..

I'm pleased and honoured to be elected the next Member for Eden-Monaro.

To the people of Eden-Monaro – thank you.

I won't let you down. pic.twitter.com/tTpIZguggB

— Kristy McBain (@KristyMcBain) July 5, 2020

Research economist discovers ‘Scotty From Marketing’ Morrison’s economic playbook

So, a short recession’s not enough. You want to create a prolonged depression, right?

Perhaps you run businesses that specialise in disaster capitalism. Maybe you want to suckle at the teat of a dying fossil fuel industry for a little longer. It could be that you miss the social division and inequality of the Victorian era. Maybe you’re just a jerk.

Whatever your motivations, this guide will take you through the basic steps of pushing an already struggling economy into a full-blown crisis…

Read the full article here. [The New Daily, 5 July 2020]

About endangered flying foxes

“Their supermarket has been destroyed...and there isn’t another one within flying distance”. The Grey-Headed Flying Fox is being threatened with extinction by the effects of climate change, their future looks grim.
📸 #AnnetteRuzickaPhotography pic.twitter.com/zDGac9XrQJ

— ACF (@AusConservation) July 5, 2020

Protecting the Orange Roughy

Fishers For Conservation

The orange roughy fishery, which some have dubbed the "posterchild of fishery mismanagement", has been the subject of debate since the 1990s when stocks collapsed after just 20 years of commercial fishing.

It's a fish that can live for more than 140 years and can't breed until around 30 — and conservationists say its unusual biology should make it off-limits to commercial fishing.

But industry groups say they've learnt from past mistakes and can harvest orange roughy sustainably.

Now, acting on behalf of an Australian trawl-fishing interest group, US-based consultancy MRAG Americas Inc has recommended the fishery be given sustainability status.

The consultancy handed down its recommendation last week to MSC, an international non-government organisation that certifies the sustainability of fisheries based on the sustainability of the exploited fish stocks, maintenance of the fishery ecosystem, and responsible management.

Objections were raised by the Australian Marine Conservation Society and conservation group WWF but were dismissed on a technicality, according to AMCS spokesperson Adrian Meder.

Mr Meder said the report contains a number of flaws that show a lack of understanding of the biology of the species and fishery.

"It's the shonkiest piece of greenwashing I think I've seen in my entire career. It gets the basics wrong on so many levels," Mr Meder said…..

Orange roughy facts

• Researchers have caught orange roughy up to 149 years of age, making them one of the longest-lived fish species. It's estimated that individuals may live up to 200 years.
• They don't reach sexual maturity until around 30 years of age and by fish standards, don't produce a lot of offspring.
• Orange roughy live between 700 metres and 1500 metres deep. They roam across seabeds but congregate on underwater shelves and seamounts to breed, meaning they can be easily caught in large numbers.
• The fish are caught by bottom trawling, usually across seamounts.
• They live in cold water, and in Australia are mostly found off Tasmania, Victoria and the Great Australian Bight.
• Commercial fishing for orange roughy began in earnest in the 1970s, with the biggest extractions taking place in New Zealand waters followed by Australia.
• They're also found in the waters of Namibia, Chile, in the Atlantic and south Indian Ocean, however stock data is limited in many of these places.
• The flesh is pearly white and delicate. [ABC News, 5 July 2020]

Just for the nostalgia

https://youtu.be/i8rVI7AMKiY

Year 1987

George Harrison: Voice & Guitar

Eric Clapton: Guitar (a Les Paul)

Jeff Lyne: Guitar

Phil Collins: Drums

Ringo Starr: Drums

Ray Cooper: Percussion

Mark King: Bass

Elton John: Piano

Jool Holland: Piano

Pauline Hanson, One Nation’s Racist-In-Chief

Pauline Hanson labelled residents in the nine public housing estate towers "drug addicts" and "alcoholics" who can't speak English, in an interview this morning on Channel Nine's Today Show.

After widespread backlash across the morning, Channel Nine released a statement to announce that Hanson won't be joining the Today Show in the future…..

[SBS News, 6 July 2020]

Rex Regional Express Airine

The more than a little petty and spiteful, Messrs. Lim Kim Hai, John Sharp, Lee Thian Soo, Neville Howell, Chris Hine, James Davis and Ronald Bartsch remain firm in their refusal to continue to fly Rex Express small passenger jets into Grafton Airport in the Clarence Valley.

Leaving the valley without an airline service.

IMAGE: Rex Regional Express revised air routes

Australian Prime Minister and Liberal MP for Cook Scott Morrison uses the old excuse that 'Jen & the girls deserve a break' to bolt out the backdoor once again

* It appears that 'Scotty From Marketing' has been away on holidays for most of the last six days and intends to keep holidaying for another six to seven days.

IMAGE: Found on Twitter

* "As you know, it is a school holidays and Jenny and the girls will be taking some time on the outskirts of Sydney....We have technology where I can be with them and continue to take briefings, calls and meetings in dealing with the situation whether it be Victoria or the other situations in the country. "As a dad, I will take some time but at the same time I can assure you we will remain absolutely focused on the things we need to focus on next week."  [9 News, 10 July 2020]

Morrison holidaying in a crisis *again* proves he doesn't regard it as a serious job. He's there for the power, not the service.

That he's not getting chased with cameras says a similar thing about our political press.

— Richard Chirgwin (@R_Chirgwin) July 10, 2020

Scott Morrison was ALREADY on holiday with the family and Twitter busted him AGAIN. Not that you heard anything from the MSM. Now he has been busted, he says he won’t be with them full time in wish washy words. I call BS. #auspol

— 🐨🦇🎀💧Angry Granny (@AngryGranny1) July 10, 2020

ECONOMIC STATE OF PLAY 2020: "Under these latest forecasts Australia’s economy next year would be 0.7% smaller than it was last year. That is the first time since 1983 that our economy would be smaller than it was two years earlier."

The Guardian, June 2020:

Since the virus hit there has been a belief, maybe a hope, that this was just a momentary thing. 

Sure, the fall would be sharp and deep, but the recovery would be fast coming. 

You could hear it in the talk of “snap back” from the prime minister and treasurer. 

There was almost a sense that this recession is not really a recession – because this was driven by health, not the economy. The underlying economy, this argument went, was solid (the foundations were strong!), and thus once those restrictions were dispensed with, we would be back as good as ever. 

The problem was that the foundations were not strong (productivity growth, household incomes and the domestic private sector were all flat-lining). Just because the causes of this recession were unusual does not alter the fact that all recessions bring with them massive job losses and a fall in production. 

And this recession is the worst we have seen since the Great Depression. 

This week the IMF issued a revised set of estimates for GDP growth this year and the next. And there was some good news to be had.....

In April the IMF forecast our GDP this year would fall by 6.7%; now it estimates it will “only” fall by 4.5%. 

Unfortunately though, the treasurer neglected to point out that, other than Malaysia, Australia had the biggest growth forecast downgrade for 2021. 

In April the IMF estimated our economy would “bounce” back in 2021 with 6.1% growth; now it sees just 4%. 

Overall, the IMF’s changed estimates are such that they expect our economy at the end of 2021 to be virtually the same size they were expecting it to be in April. Hardly a ringing endorsement that government policies are doing better than expected. 

What this means is we need to very quickly disabuse ourselves of the notion that the economy will “snap back” in 2021 and all will be well. 

Under these latest forecasts Australia’s economy next year would be 0.7% smaller than it was last year. That is the first time since 1983 that our economy would be smaller than it was two years earlier. 

But even that rather hides the impact. 

In October the IMF estimated that for the next five years our economy would grow by around 2.5% each year. That is pretty miserable growth, but it was largely in line with the average since the GFC. 

But now, even with these new and improved estimates for our economy, by the end of next year we are still tracking to be 5.3% below where we were expected to be. 

That is the equivalent of around $105bn less being produced – or roughly the total amount produced in a year by the entire manufacturing industry. 

That is a chasm of economic waste. 

If the economy was to keep growing at (a very strong) 4%, it would take us until 2025 to get back level with where we were expected to be before the virus. If it grows at the more realistic 3% from 2022 onwards, we will not get back on par until well into the 2030s. [my yellow highlighting]

The debate very much needs to shift from the language being used in January and February. 

Forget “fundamentals being strong” and “sensible budget management”. It was spin then; it is just embarrassingly irrelevant now. 

We are in a deep recession and the political and policy debate needs to recognise this fact.

Grattan Institute report indicates that with 643 active COVID-19 cases remaining in Australia, everyone needs to keep social distancing to avoid a viral surge

The Grattan Institute, 21 June 2020:

Australia has not yet won the battle against COVID-19, and coming out of lockdown risks a second wave of infections. 

Grattan Institute modelling shows that reopening shops, schools, and workplaces heightens the risk of new infections, especially if people think the threat is over and ignore social distancing rules. 

Workplaces are particularly high risk and should be re-opened slowly, with as many people as possible continuing to work from home to minimise the potential for the virus to spread. 

Schools should enforce social distancing policies, and close if a COVID-19 case is detected. 

Mandatory quarantining of international arrivals must remain in place. 

And if a second wave of mass infections breaks out, governments will have to reimpose lockdowns. 

It’s dangerous for people to think this fight is over. 

The nature of the virus hasn’t changed – our behaviour has. 

If Australians go back to a pre-COVID normal, the virus could spread quickly and wildly, like it has elsewhere. 

Some of Australia’s states have effectively eliminated local transmission of COVID-19, and are keeping their borders closed to states where it persists. 

States should maintain different restrictions if they have different rates of local transmission. 

Restrictions are obviously needed much less in states which have effectively eliminated the virus from their local population. 

Australia should learn lessons from the way the health system responded to the pandemic. 

Telehealth has been embraced by doctors and patients; it should now be expanded to give more people quicker access to care. 

Mental health and hospital-in-the-home services should be bolstered. 

And the federal and state governments need to strengthen supply chains to ensure adequate supplies of personal protective equipment and ventilators in the event of a second wave of COVID-19 infections. 

If Australia gets this transition to a ‘new normal’ wrong, we won’t benefit from the overdue health system changes that the crisis forced on us. 

That would be another tragedy on top of the trauma caused by the pandemic itself.

On the morning of 21 June 2020 there were still 643 active COVID-19 cases in Australia with 25 of these new cases confirmed overnight.

Only South Australia, Tasmania, the Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory appear to have had no active COVID-19 cases on 21 June.

Australia's current COVID-19 infection growth rate was 1.12% which is 0.13% above the growth rate required to reduce infections towards zero.

Grattan Institute Report No. 2020-09 recommendations for coming out of lockdown:

1. Maintain social distancing efforts while there are active COVID-19 cases locally 

∙ Maintain high levels of testing, contact tracing, and isolation. 

∙ Workplaces should be re-opened slowly, with as many people as possible continuing to work from home. Minimise the number of people interacting in workplaces where possible. 

∙ Enforce social distancing in workplaces. 

∙ Workers who show symptoms linked to COVID-19 must not be allowed to go to work. Their employers must allow them to work from home where possible. Governments should provide support for workers who do not have sick leave entitlements. 

∙ Schools must be closed, and rigorous contact tracing implemented, whenever a COVID-19 case is detected at the school. 

∙ Policies limiting patrons in shops should be maintained if local transmission of COVID-19 continues in particular cities. 

∙ People in the community must continue to take social distancing precautions. Where there are active cases, the government should encourage people to wear masks in public. 

2. Ramp up local lockdowns when outbreaks occur 

∙ State governments must be prepared to reimpose lockdowns to control major outbreaks. 

∙ Local lockdowns should be enacted to control local outbreaks.

3. When there are no active COVID-19 cases in Australia 

∙ Capacity constraints on workplaces, shops, and hospitality can be removed. People can start to move freely within and between states. 

∙ Testing must remain a routine part of life. If local cases are identified, contact tracers must be at the ready, and widespread testing should restart in affected areas. 

∙ Current mandatory quarantining of people arriving from overseas must remain in place. 

∙ Quarantine exemptions could be made with other countries, such as New Zealand, that also have no active COVID-19 cases and that have effective international arrival protocols in place.

So how is your super fund weathering the COVID-19 pandemic?

Apparently superannuation funds across the board have felt the impact of the global economic downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

However, it was the retail super fund and self-managed fund sectors which experienced the largest contractions. 

Despite the total savings pool falling slightly the outlook is positive according to Rainmaker Information's assessment of the Australian industry on 5 June 2020:

Australia's superannuation savings pool has withstood the COVID-19 financial crisis so far, falling just 0.3% in the 12 months to 31 March 2020, while bolstering cash reserves. 

Australia's prudential regulator for the superannuation system, APRA, has just released its latest quarterly industry snapshot. It shows the superannuation system is in remarkably strong shape given the economic shock of COVID-19. 

This should give Australia's 12 million super fund members and their families confidence that while their superannuation has been buffeted by COVID-19, their superannuation savings are safe. 

Illustrating this, while APRA's figures show Australia's superannuation savings pool contracted 7.7% during the three months between December 2019 and end March 2020, over the 12-month period to end of April 2020, it decreased by just 0.3%. 

2019 was one of the best years ever for superannuation savings in Australia. 

"Compared to the 23% fall in global stock markets in first quarter of 2020 as well as the 14% fall over the 12-month period to March, this is a stunning result," said Alex Dunnin, executive director of research and compliance at Rainmaker Information. 

Dunnin said even though the SelectingSuper MySuper performance index, which is compiled by Rainmaker, fell 11% during this three month period, over 12-months the index is down only 4%. 

As a result, Australia's superannuation savings have only fallen to March 2019 levels. During the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis the SelectingSuper index fell as low as -21%. 

But not all parts of the superannuation sector are weathering the COVID-19 crisis equally. 

The not for profit (NFP) super fund segment comprising corporate, public sector and industry super funds, contracted 5% in the March quarter. 

Comparatively, the retail super fund sector contracted more than twice as much, up to 12%. And Self-managed super funds (SMSFs) contracted 9% in the same period. [my yellow highlighting]

"Two-thirds of the decrease experienced across the superannuation savings pool came from APRA-regulated NFP and retail funds." 

"While the retail super segment holds roughly one-quarter of superannuation savings assets compared to the NFP segment that holds half, each segment fell by about the same amount in dollar terms." 

"APRA figures show the retail super fund segment holds 24% of their investments in Australian equities, compared to just 15% by NFP funds. 

"Retails funds are more vulnerable to fluctuations in equities markets, however, industry super funds with a larger share of their investments in unlisted assets such as real property, infrastructure and private equity were better insulated from the worst of these equities falls.

" Liquidity also became a concern for some superannuation market commentators and politicians when the government announced the Early Release of Superannuation scheme on 22 March, with speculation that some super funds may find it difficult to pay these early redemptions. 

Super funds with investments in unlisted assets such as property, private equity and infrastructure were singled out for special mentions because of concerns they may have too little set aside in cash reserves. 

However, APRA's superannuation snapshot has revealed that super funds $273 billion in cash at the end of March, which is 27-times the amount of money that has so far been paid out in Early Release claims. 

To appreciate the total amount held in liquid assets held by super funds, Dunnin said you should also include the additional $466 billion held in bonds. 

"The 14% held in cash and the 22% held in bonds means super funds have $739 billion or 36% of their total investments held in liquid assets. 

"NFP funds have 37% of their assets available in cash and bonds, marginally exceeding the 36% held by retail super funds. Industry funds hold 31% of their assets in these instruments." 

During the March quarter, funds received $29 billion in contributions, taking the value of total contributions for the past 12 months to $121 billion, further adding to these funds' liquidity. 

"This is the highest contributions inflow in more than two years," said Dunnin. "These added contributions are often missed when analysing these 'vulnerable' funds. 

"Sure they may have a higher than average proportion of younger members, however they receive hundreds of millions in contributions each month." he said.

Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) key statistics for the superannuation industry as at 31 March 2020 can be found at https://www.apra.gov.au/news-and-publications/apra-releases-superannuation-statistics-for-march-2020.