The extreme far-right in Australian politics is on the march and hopes to capture the Liberal and Nationals' party machines

In October 2018 Australian mainstream media reported that a far right group had attempted to infiltrate the NSW National Party.

The Guardian, 15 October 2018:

The New South Wales Young Nationals has expelled one member and suspended two others after revelations the group had been infiltrated by members of Australia’s alt-right movement. 

On Sunday the ABC’s Background Briefing revealed that members of the NSW Young Nationals were members of the Lads Society, a far-right fight club whose leaders include the prominent alt-right figure Blair Cottrell. 

The Young Nationals – including one member of the party executive – were or had also been members of a Facebook group called the New Guard, whose followers include self-described fascists. 

Membership to the party’s youth organisation has also been temporarily suspended. 

On Monday the deputy premier and leader of the NSW Nationals, John Barilaro, admitted his party may have been an “easy target” for members of the far-right seeking to influence mainstream politics. 

“We are a grassroots party that is brought together by geography so I think we are probably an easy target,” he told ABC radio. 

“If you want to become a member and then start bringing more members in, we are a small party so a small number of members joining can actually change the structure of a branch or an electorate council as we call them.

“So maybe it’s because we are an easy target for individuals to infiltrate.”

Barilaro admitted the reports were “worrying”, saying there was a “question mark” over how influential the members identified by the ABC had been in developing policy within the party’s youth wing. 

He downplayed the significance of the group on the wider party. 

Earlier in 2018 media was reporting on a religious right attempt to infiltrate the Liberal Party at Victorian state level. 

The Guardian, 19 May 2018: 

It’s one of those dilemmas politicians like to call wicked problems. Politicians, at least the folks still on the planet, know that it’s important to build a political movement from the ground up, but such movements can sometimes produce outcomes that are uncomfortable for people in power. 

One of these case studies exists presently with the Liberal party in Victoria, where Malcolm Turnbull has been used as a recruitment tool, and not in a positive way. Conservative forces in the Victorian branch have used the rolling of Tony Abbott and Turnbull’s alleged progressivity as a rallying cry to recruit new members. 

An army is being raised in Melbourne’s outer-eastern suburbs with the objective of taking the Liberal party back from the Costello clique – the group that rose to a position of influence when Peter Costello was the most significant centre-right political figure in Victoria. 

The grassroots recruitment drive has been active amongst conservative church groups looking for a home after the collapse of the Christian micro-party Family First.

The Age, 3 June 2018:

An Age investigation has confirmed with senior church sources that at least 10 of the 78 people elected to the Liberals’ administrative bodies at the party’s April state council are Mormons.

This amounts to nearly 13 per cent of all those now in key positions within the Liberals’ organisational wing, compared to just 0.3 per cent of all Australians who are members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints. Combined with conservative Catholics, evangelical Christians from churches such as Victory Faith Centre and City Builders, the religious right-wing now has unprecedented sway in Liberal Party politics.

West Australian Liberal Party members were going public with their concerns at the beginning of 2019.

The West Australian, 15 January 2019:

Any political party trying to win the majority of voters at the silent centre of noisy left/right politics understands why religious zealotry is a turn off. 

Depending on who you talk to, given most people in politics are motivated by self-interest, the Liberals are either approaching a crossroads over the evangelical push for influence in the northern and southern suburbs branches, or they are already past the tipping point.

Plenty of party players will offer background on the battles being fought inside Liberal branches and divisions, but few want to go public for fear of the powerbrokers who control the numbers.

Long-standing Liberal Party member Deidre Willmott has been a chief of staff at the highest levels of government, was chief executive of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry until recently, is a proud Anglican and is not one for sensationalism.

Therefore, her view that evangelical forces were gaining control of the party should matter in Liberal land and party leaders, like Mike Nahan, and other stalwarts should take note. Willmott talked freely about “those people” from the religious right “getting the numbers”.

“The party runs the risk that a narrow-based agenda will be the priority of the party and make it irrelevant to the broad base it has represented,” she said. “I have no problem with Christians, I am one myself, but I just don’t think a socially conservative agenda is part of a mainstream Liberal Party.”

Following on from weekend news about members of another evangelical church, True North, nominating for control of the party’s Sorrento-Duncraig branch, there was much chatter on social media about the so-called “alliance” of Liberal powerbrokers.

Perhaps, given the topic, southern suburbs Christian warrior and Upper House Liberal Nick Goiran, his northern suburbs parliamentary colleague Peter Collier and Federal Liberal minister Mathias Cormann should be dubbed the Holy Trinity. 

Highly placed Liberals insist they control the party’s dominant faction and do so with the help of scores of members from Pentecostal and Baptist churches.

Federal Liberal MP Ian Goodenough is one politician who does not shy away from confirming the support he receives from the evangelical community, including Globalheart and True North churches. 

But he will not concede that the systematic approach Globalheart members have taken to winning key positions in Liberal branches differs greatly from other followers of religions getting involved in the party.

Now we are hearing that mid-2019 the Queensland Liberal-National Party had to shore up its barricades. 

The Courier Mail, 18 August 2019: 

QUEENSLAND’s Liberal National Party changed it rules last month in a bid to thwart an ultra conservative takeover of the party. 

Now it can be revealed the party has launched a widened investigation into who was behind the alleged “religious right” takeover push and what methods they were using in their bid. 

The investigation is an extension of a probe launched earlier this year into allegations attempts were being made to woo far-right extremists into the fold and use their networks trawl for new recruits. 

It is understood there are three to four people of interest to the investigation with the focus on stacking efforts witnessed at two party unit AGMs – the Metro South AGM and the Metro North AGM – where officer bearer positions that also have a vote on the LNP’s powerful state executive were up for grabs. 

It was the Metro North AGM – where more than 100 new faces arrived including some who allegedly were bussed in – that was the catalyst for the rule change brought in last month. 

Now new members must wait a year before voting on office bearer elections just as they have to for MP preselections.

And once more New South Wales is in the news, but this time it's the NSW Liberals, not the Nationals, who are being targeted.

The Sydney Morning Herald, 8 August 2019:

A group promoting religious freedom is working to recruit 5000 Christian conservatives to the NSW Liberals as part of an ambitious scheme aimed at taking "control" of the state division of the party.

Leaked documents obtained by the Herald, which contain metadata leading back to Federal and NSW parliaments, reveal the NSW Reformers group hopes to recruit thousands of members across Sydney.

A 900-word document titled ‘NSW Reformers - Taking Back Our Nation Through Good Government’ lays out the group's intentions to exert influence on politicians by joining Liberal branches and gaining pre-selection votes.

“If we recruit 5000 Christian conservatives we will control the NSW division of the Liberal Party,” it reads.

“We will organise information sessions for local coordinators as to how the intricate parts of the party work ...

Politicians are far more receptive to people and causes if they directly impact their chances of being in Parliament.” 

The group believes greater control of state and federal preselection in NSW would ensure a strong "conservative representation in Parliament".

The document’s metadata suggests it was written by a staff member in a federal ministerial office last year. The staffer did not return calls or text messages....

Other documents show names, addresses and contact details of hundreds of constituents were collated from a series of petitions advertised on the NSW Reformers' page.

The petitions that netted the data of hundreds of constituents refers to "gender ideology", “gay surrogacy”, religious freedom and Zoe’s Law legislation, which would make it a crime to cause death to a fetus.

The spreadsheets also contain lists of dozens of churches across Sydney to be targeted in the recruitment drive.

Meme of the Week

Hat tip to @Billablog

Morrison Government intends to go ahead with the drug testing of welfare recipients

"…the bill is not written like a research trial, it's written as policy by stealth…and if this is about introducing new policy, then…it misunderstands the nature of drug problems and drug dependence." [UNSW Professor Lisa Maher, Committee Hansard, 23 April 2018, p.18] 

According to data.gov.au, between January 2017 and and December 2018 there were 5.82 million Australian citizens receiving Newstart Allowance unemployment benefits for all or part of that period.

Based on the New Zealand experience of widespread drug testing, it is highly likely that just one year into any Australian scheme which regularly drug tests Newstart recipients running costs would not be less than $3.27 billion.

When you add those receiving Youth Allowance,  then drug testing and intervention costs would run even higher.

Even the limited trial currently proposed by the Morrison Government would in all probability cost somewhere in the vicinity of $20 million in its first year.

In the health care sector there is almost universal condemnation of the Morrison Government's drug testing bill as being either unworkable in practice as a reliable drug detection scheme or ineffective as a method of medical intervention.

Indeed, it is reported that Clinical Associate Professor Adrian Reynolds, an expert in addiction medicine, has stated that the drug testing trial is 'unlikely to bring about any sustained changes in patients' drug use behaviours and may even be counterproductive.'

Nor does it appear that there is any solid evidence that such a testing regime actually assists unemployed people to either find work or successfully access treatment. 

Given how many drug or alcohol dependent individuals currently cannot get a timely appointment or find a inpatient bed in the est. 952 publicly funded drug & alcohol agencies across Australia and the fact that the majority of both private and publicly funded agencies are in large metropolitan areas, this lack of evidence comes as no surprise.

Here is just one submission made to the Senate Inquiry into the Social Services Legislation Amendment (Drug Testing Trial) Bill 2018 in April 2018 by the peak medical practitioners organisation.

Social Services Legislation Amendment (Drug Testing Trial) Bill 2018 (Australian Parliament) by clarencegirl on Scribd

http://www.scribd.com/document/420530854/Social-Services-Legislation-Amendment-Drug-Testing-Trial-Bill-2018-Australian-Parliament

No you weren't imagining it - wages are stagnating in Australia

Whenever the Fair Work Commission reviews the minimum wage, one of those making a submission* to keep any increase in the minimum wage a modest one will be the Abbott-Turnbull-Morrison Government.

By way of example:

https://www.fwc.gov.au/documents/sites/wagereview2014/submissions/ausgovt_sub_awr1314.pdf

First 5 points in a 12 point statement of Australian Government's position
https://www.fwc.gov.au/documents/sites/wagereview2015/submissions/austgov_sub_awr1415.pdf

This is the result.......

The Sydney Morning Herald, 13 July, p.9:

As the asset-driven wealth gap has widened, incomes generated by employment have failed to keep up.

Average weekly disposable household incomes have grown just $44 over the past decade. In the four years to 2007-08, average weekly household incomes grew by $220. They dipped in the immediate wake of the global financial crisis before reaching $1067 in the 2013-14 survey. They fell in the next survey and rose $8 a week to $1062 in the 2017-18 survey.

In NSW, those in the lowest 20 per cent of income earners have seen their incomes go backwards in real terms since 2015-16, from $412 a week to $397 a week. They are only $6 a week higher than in 2011-12. The biggest increase has been for people in Tasmania, where disposable incomes jumped $83 to a record-high $922, with households across all income ranges boosted. The largest slump has been in Western Australia, where disposable incomes are $157 lower than their peak in 2013-14. [my yellow highlighting]

However, lest Australian voters seek to blame the Abbott-Turnbull-Morrison or any employer lobby group for paltry wages growth, the Australian Treasury and participants at a recent conference organised by the rather esoteric Economic Society of Australia - est. in 1925 and delighting in producing articles such as "Community and Expert Wine Ratings and Prices" and "Non‐monotonic NPV Function Leads to Spurious NPVs and Multiple IRR Problems: A New Method that Resolves these Problems" - have rushed to the defence of both government and the business community.

With Treasury in particular pointing a finger at employees, who are reluctant to quit their current jobs and chance their arm in an uncertain labour market, as a possible cause of low wages growth.  
So there you have it. Despite both the federal government and employer groups constantly pushing to limit wages growth, it's really the fault of workers. 

Regardless of the fact that productivity growth mainly from workers' efforts has averaged 1.4 percent a year since the end of 2010 having risen at a relatively steady rate since 1991.

Note:
* See https://www.fwc.gov.au/awards-agreements/minimum-wages-conditions/annual-wage-reviews/annual-wage-review-2017-18-3. Go to right hand sidebar, open a wage review link, select Submissions &  then click on Initial Submissions.

Australian Prime Minister Morrison's relentless hammering of the poor and vulnerable set to continue?

The Guardian, 7 July 2019:

The Morrison government says it remains committed to a plan criticised as “brutal” to dock the welfare of those who repeatedly fail to pay state fines, and may still proceed with cuts to student payments claimed by the unemployed, the disabled and sole parents.

The Coalition introduced a number of welfare measures in 2017 which drew the ire of social service groups but ultimately never came into effect because the government failed to win the support of the Senate or the states and territories.

Guardian Australia reported this month that internal documents suggested the contentious plan to drug test welfare recipients was not a priority, but the government has insisted it remains on its agenda.

Other welfare proposals from the last parliament included about $90m in cuts to student payments, legislation to automatically deduct rent from welfare recipients living in social housing, which critics said could put family violence survivors at risk, and a plan to impose the “demerit point” compliance scheme on those doing the remote work-for-the-dole program, which has seen payment suspensions surge…...

But the spokesman did confirm the government still intended to create the scheme to automatically dock 15% of payments for those who have unpaid fines…...

“The Encouraging Lawful Behaviour of Income Support Recipients proposal remains government policy and requires legislative approval,” Ruston’s spokesman said…..

Labor had opposed the cuts to the $208-a-year pensioner education supplement and the $32.20-a week education entry payment, which are intended to help low-income people with the cost of study.

The changes would save the budget $95m over five years, but the opposition said the policy would hurt people with disability, carers, sole parents and the unemployed.

The Australian Council of Social Service has previously lashed the plan to dock welfare payments from people with court-ordered state fines as “particularly brutal”.

The proposal would automatically dock 15% of an income support payment, but critics say it will push vulnerable people into homelessness.

Welfare groups including the Australian Unemployed Workers Union have also expressed grave concerns about a plan announced last year to link Newstart recipients to farm work using the national database.

The unemployed would face losing their welfare payments for four weeks if they turned down what the government described as a “suitable job without reasonable excuse”.

The department of employment confirmed the policy would begin in July next year.

Then there is this.....

Encouraginglawful behaviour of income support recipients 2018 Budget 

A word or two on the Australian economy…….

“The financial year ending in 24 days will be recorded as Australia’s worst since 1992, when the nation was struggling to recover from the 1991 recession.”  [Contributing Editor Michael Pascoe, The New Daily, 5 June 2019]

With wages growth stagnant and a rise in unemployment the slowing economy became even slower last month as consumers kept their wallets closed, perhaps sensing the uncertainty behind Prime Minister Scott 'Liar  from the Shire' Morrison's empty brag of a strong economy during the recent federal election campaign.

Australian Treasurer and Liberal MP for Kooyong Josh Frydenberg let the cat out of the bag when speaking with the banks ahead of the 4 June 2019 Reserve Bank official cash rate cut when he was variously reported as admitting the economy faced significant problems or domestic and international economic challenges.  A few days later it was factors which weighed on the economy.

Here is how mainstream media and statisticians presented the situation........

The Age, 2 June 2019:

On the basis of the December quarter numbers Australia is already in a recession on a per capita basis. It has been there before in its record-setting period of economic expansion, but there is a sense this time that it will be lucky to avoid a contraction.

Slowing economic trends are unlikely to have reversed in the first quarter of 2019. We haven’t seen those March quarter numbers yet, but they are unlikely to be good, and may be bad. Political uncertainties will not have helped.

What is in prospect is the sort of outcome that will compound the concerning result in the second half of 2018 when GDP slowed dramatically to 1 percent year-on-year.

If that slowdown becomes entrenched, Australia will tip into a recession for the first time in a generation with all the consequences that will follow. This includes an indelible political context.

After six years in office, the Coalition cannot reasonably blame its predecessor for tepid wages growth, weak productivity gains, spiralling household debt, a doubling of net government debt, and a depreciation of the Australian dollar by about 30 per cent since a Tony Abbott-led government took office in 2013.

Interest rate cuts may further weaken the dollar. This would be good for commodities exporters, bad for consumers.

A booming property sector fuelled by easy credit and lax Foreign Investment Review Board strictures on Chinese money flooding the market contributed to an illusion of wellbeing, the so-called wealth effect: or, perhaps, better described as the “wealth illusion’’.

Cuts to interest rates may give the economy a bump. The removal of the spectre of a Labor government, at odds with aspirational Australia, may encourage investment.

However, what should be concerning the government, as it prepares for the first session of the 46th parliament in early July, is that unemployment in April ticked up to 5.2 per cent from 5 per cent, and underemployment jumped to 8.5 per cent.

Finally, this brings us to Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s pledge to bring the budget back into surplus in 2020-21 and begin paying down debt. If a recession bites that undertaking will not be worth the budget papers on which it is written.

The question will then become whether - and how quickly - the Morrison government can bring itself to admit its budgetary projections, reaffirmed by a docile Treasury in its pre-election economic and fiscal outlook (PEFO), misfired.

Rather than surpluses as far the eye can see and tax cuts on the horizon it would be dealing with an entirely different scenario.

What would be needed in that case is real stimulus for capital works projects rather than short-term fixes in the form of tax cuts that might be good for the sale of Harvey Norman flat-screen televisions, but will do little for wages growth or the economy overall.

Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), media release, 4 June 2019:

Retail turnover fell 0.1 per cent in April

Australian retail turnover fell 0.1 per cent in April 2019, seasonally adjusted, according to the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Retail Trade figures.

This follows a rise of 0.3 per cent in March 2019.

"There were mixed results across industries" said Ben Faulkner, ABS Director of Quarterly Economy Wide Surveys, "with falls in Household goods retailing (-0.9 per cent), Cafes, restaurant and takeaway food services (-0.7 per cent), and Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (-1.2 per cent), which were offset by rises in Other retailing (0.8 per cent), Department stores (1.8 per cent), and Food retailing (0.2 per cent)."

In seasonally adjusted terms, there were falls in New South Wales (-0.4 per cent), Victoria (-0.4 per cent), the Northern Territory (-0.5 per cent), and the Australian Capital Territory (-0.2 per cent). There were rises in Queensland (0.7 per cent), South Australia (0.6 per cent), Western Australia (0.1 per cent), and Tasmania (0.3 per cent).

The trend estimate for Australian retail turnover rose 0.2 per cent in April 2019, following a 0.2 per cent rise in March 2019. Compared to April 2018, the trend estimate rose 2.9 per cent.

Online retail turnover contributed 5.7 per cent to total retail turnover in original terms in April 2019, which was unchanged from March 2019. In April 2018, online retail turnover contributed 5.4 per cent to total retail.

More detailed industry analysis and further information on the statistical methodology is available in Retail Trade, Australia (cat no. 8501.0).

Reserve Bank of Australia. media release, 4 June 2019:

Statement by Philip Lowe, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision

At its meeting today, the Board decided to lower the cash rate by 25 basis points to 1.25 per cent. The Board took this decision to support employment growth and provide greater confidence that inflation will be consistent with the medium-term target.

The outlook for the global economy remains reasonable, although the downside risks stemming from the trade disputes have increased. Growth in international trade remains weak and the increased uncertainty is affecting investment intentions in a number of countries. In China, the authorities have taken steps to support the economy, while addressing risks in the financial system. In most advanced economies, inflation remains subdued, unemployment rates are low and wages growth has picked up.

Global financial conditions remain accommodative. Long-term bond yields and risk premiums are low. In Australia, long-term bond yields are at historically low levels. Bank funding costs have also declined further, with money-market spreads having fully reversed the increases that took place last year. The Australian dollar has depreciated a little over the past few months and is at the low end of its narrow range of recent times.

The central scenario remains for the Australian economy to grow by around 2¾ per cent in 2019 and 2020. This outlook is supported by increased investment in infrastructure and a pick-up in activity in the resources sector, partly in response to an increase in the prices of Australia's exports. The main domestic uncertainty continues to be the outlook for household consumption, which is being affected by a protracted period of low income growth and declining housing prices. Some pick-up in growth in household disposable income is expected and this should support consumption.

Employment growth has been strong over the past year, labour force participation has been increasing, the vacancy rate remains high and there are reports of skills shortages in some areas. Despite these developments, there has been little further inroads into the spare capacity in the labour market of late. The unemployment rate had been steady at around 5 per cent for some months, but ticked up to 5.2 per cent in April. The strong employment growth over the past year or so has led to a pick-up in wages growth in the private sector, although overall wages growth remains low. A further gradual lift in wages growth is expected and this would be a welcome development. Taken together, these labour market outcomes suggest that the Australian economy can sustain a lower rate of unemployment.

The recent inflation outcomes have been lower than expected and suggest subdued inflationary pressures across much of the economy. Inflation is still however anticipated to pick up, and will be boosted in the June quarter by increases in petrol prices. The central scenario remains for underlying inflation to be 1¾ per cent this year, 2 per cent in 2020 and a little higher after that.

The adjustment in established housing markets is continuing, after the earlier large run-up in prices in some cities. Conditions remain soft, although in some markets the rate of price decline has slowed and auction clearance rates have increased. Growth in housing credit has also stabilised recently. Credit conditions have been tightened and the demand for credit by investors has been subdued for some time. Mortgage rates remain low and there is strong competition for borrowers of high credit quality.

Today's decision to lower the cash rate will help make further inroads into the spare capacity in the economy. It will assist with faster progress in reducing unemployment and achieve more assured progress towards the inflation target. The Board will continue to monitor developments in the labour market closely and adjust monetary policy to support sustainable growth in the economy and the achievement of the inflation target over time.

Abbott-Turnbull-Morrison Government May 2019: new crew on the political ‘Titanic’

With no plans to genuinely address climate change mitigation, in denial concerning the slowing national economy and pretending that Australia is not in breach of its human rights obligations on two fronts (treatment of Aboriginal adults & children and detained asylum seekers), Australian Prime Minister & Liberal MP for Cook Scott 'Liar from the Shire' Morrison released his new ministry list on 26 May 2019.

Australian Government Ministry List for the 46th Parlaiment, 26 May 2019 by clarencegirl on Scribd

https://www.scribd.com/document/411541377/Australian-Government-Ministry-List-for-the-46th-Parlaiment-26-May-2019