Australia at the sharp end of global warming

“Australians endured another intense summer, with more than 200 record-breaking extreme weather events driven by climate change” [Climate Council, 7 March 2017]

World Weather Attribution (WWA), media release, March 2017:

Extreme Heat:

A look at the recent record high temperatures in Australia

New South Wales, located in southeastern Australia, just experienced its hottest summer on record (Figure 1). Temperature records across the central and the eastern parts of Australia were broken, leading the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to issue a Special Climate Statement on the exceptional heat. For example, January 2017 saw the highest monthly mean temperatures on record for the cities of Sydney and Brisbane, and the highest daytime temperatures on record for Canberra. Overall, Australia experienced its 12th hottest summer on record.

There were three distinct heat waves in southeast Australia during January and February, with the highest temperatures recorded from February 9th to the 12th. For much of the country, the heat peaked on the weekend of February 11th and 12th, when many places hit upwards of 113°F (45°C). The 2016-2017 heatwaves broke long-standing records in central New South Wales that were originally set back in January of 1939 (Figure 2).

The WWA team and colleagues from the University of New South Wales conducted a rapid attribution analysis to see how climate change factored into the exceptionally warm summer (December to February) of 2016-2017. The team also looked at the hottest three-day average February temperatures in Canberra and Sydney.

 Figure 1: New South Wales, located in southeastern Australia, reported its hottest summer (Dec. 2016 – Feb. 2017) on record while the northwestern part of Australia reported cooler than average temperatures. Map shows temperature deciles. Source: Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Figure 2: Time series (1910-2016) of summer mean temperature anomalies for New South Wales. The 2016-2017 heatwaves broke long-standing records in central New South Wales that were originally set back in January of 1939. Source: Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Regional Level: New South Wales

The New South Wales record hot summer can be linked directly to climate change. Two different methods were used to reach this conclusion. First, drawing from a previously published analysis using coupled model simulations, we see that average summer temperatures like those seen during 2016-2017 are now at least 50 times more likely in the current climate than in the past, before global warming began. The team also performed an analysis based on the observational series from ACORN-SAT. This approach is similar to previous analyses used for record heat in the Arctic in 2016 and Central England in 2014. Comparing the likelihood of this record in the climate of today compared with the climate of around 1910 (before global warming had a big impact on our climate system and when reliable observations are available), the team again found at least a 50-fold increase in the likelihood of this hot summer.

The team then looked at the maximum summer temperature for New South Wales (see graphic below). Based on climate model simulations (weather@home and CMIP5) and observational data analysis (ACORN-SAT), maximum summer temperatures like those seen during 2016-2017 are now at least 10 times more likely in the current climate than in the past, before global warming began. In the past, a summer as hot as 2016-2017 was a roughly 1 in 500-year event. Today, climate change has increased the odds to roughly 1 in 50 years — a 10-fold increase in frequency. In the future, a summer as hot as this past summer in New South Wales is likely to happen roughly once every five years. In addition, climate change has increased the intensity of an exceptionally hot summer like this by roughly 1ºC (1.8°F). In the future, the intensity increases by roughly 2°C (3.6°F).

Local Level: Canberra and Sydney Heatwaves

The team also looked at the local scale to see if a climate change role could be measured in the heat waves that hit Canberra (population ~380,000) and Sydney (population ~4.9 million). Climate has much larger variability at the city level compared to a big area like New South Wales. This can make it more difficult to see the influence of climate change within the overall noise of the weather system.

In Canberra, temperatures hit 96.8oF (36°C) on February 9th and 104oF (40oC) on both February 10th and 11th. Using the weather@home model and ACORN-SAT observations, we analyzed three-day average maximum temperature. Both the observational data and the climate model simulations show that climate change increased the likelihood of the kind of extreme three-day heat observed in Canberra. The weather@home results point to at least a 50 percent increase in the chance of a heatwave like that.

For Sydney, a coastal city, the effect of climate change on this heat wave is less clear. Observations show that climate change increased the chance of such a heat wave occurring, but the high year-to-year variability makes identifying a clear human influence more difficult.

The Future

The heat seen this past summer across parts of Australia is still rare in our current climate. However, if greenhouse gas emissions are not dramatically reduced, intense summer heat will become the norm in the future.

For Further Information Contact:

Andrew King (University of Melbourne): andrew.king@unimelb.edu.au

Sarah Kirkpatrick (University of New South Wales): sarah.kirkpatrick@unsw.edu.au

David Karoly (University of Melbourne): dkaroly@unimelb.edu.au

Geert Jan van Oldenborgh (KNMI): persvoorlichting@knmi.nl (press office)

*****ENDS*****

Excerpts from The Climate Council’s Angry Summer 2016/17: Climate Change Supercharging Extreme Weather report released on 7 March 2017:

In just 90 days, more than 205 records were broken around Australia.

The state-wide mean temperature in summer was the hottest for New South Wales since records began, with temperatures 2.57°C above average.

Sydney had its hottest summer on record with a mean temperature 2.8°C above average.

Brisbane had its hottest summer on record in terms of mean temperature at 26.8°C, equivalent to 1.7°C above average.

Canberra had its hottest summer on record in terms of daytime temperatures and recorded temperatures of at least 35°C on 18 days, already far higher than what is projected for 2030 (12 days).

Adelaide experienced its hottest Christmas day in 70 years at 41.3°C.

Moree in regional New South Wales experienced 54 consecutive days of temperatures 35°C or above, a record for the state.

Perth had its highest summer total rainfall on record of 192.8 mm.......

The impacts of the last Angry Summer of 2013/14 cost the Australian economy approximately $8 billion through absenteeism and a reduction in work productivity. The economic impact from the 2016/17 Angry Summer has not yet been quantified.

The Australia State of the Environment (SoE) 2016 Overview was tabled in the Australian Parliament on 7 March 2017.

As Australia enters Autumn 2017 eyes turn to the skies

Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), media release, 28 February 2017:

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. However, recent changes in both the tropical Pacific Ocean and atmosphere, and climate model outlooks surveyed by the Bureau, suggest the likelihood of El Niño forming in 2017 has risen. As a result, the Bureau's ENSO Outlook status has been upgraded to El Niño WATCH, meaning the likelihood of El Niño in 2017 is approximately 50%.

All atmospheric and oceanic indicators of ENSO are currently within neutral thresholds. However, sea surface temperatures have been increasing in the eastern Pacific Ocean and are now warmer than average for the first time since June 2016, while the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has been trending downwards.

Seven of eight international models surveyed by the Bureau indicate steady warming in the central tropical Pacific Ocean over the next six months. Six models suggest El Niño thresholds may be reached by July 2017. However, some caution must be taken at this time of year, with lower model accuracy through the autumn months compared to other times of the year.

El Niño is often associated with below average winter–spring rainfall over eastern Australia and warmer than average winter–spring maximum temperatures over the southern half of Australia.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has little influence on Australia from December to April. Current outlooks suggest a neutral IOD may persist until the end of autumn.

Climate outlooks – monthly and seasonal Issued: 23 February 2017 – Next issue: 30 March 2017:

Climate outlook overview

Autumn (March to May) rainfall is likely to be below average over the southern two-thirds of Australia.

March is likely to be hotter and drier than average across most of Australia, except the far north and west.

Warmer autumn days and nights are likely across most of Australia, except northwest Australia where days and nights are likely to be cooler than average.

The drier than average outlooks are likely a result of forecast higher than normal pressure across western and southern Australia, meaning fewer rain-bearing systems are likely to cross the coast (see the Climate Influences section for more detail).

NSW Forecast – chance of exceeding median maximum temperature in March to May 2017:

NSW Forecast – chance of above median rainfall in March to May 2017:

The Conversation, 1 March 2017:

Crop yields around Australia have been hard hit by recent weather. Last year, for instance, the outlook for mungbeans was excellent. But the hot, dry weather has hurt growers. The extreme conditions have reduced average yields from an expected 1-1.5 tonnes per hectare to just 0.1-0.5 tonnes per hectare.

Sorghum and cotton crops fared little better, due to depleted soil water, lack of in-crop rainfall, and extreme heat. Fruit and vegetables, from strawberries to lettuce, were also hit hard.

But the story is larger than this. Globally, production of maize and wheat between 1980 and 2008 was 3.8% and 5.5% below what we would have expected without temperature increases. One model, which combines historical crop production and weather data, projects significant reductions in production of several key African crops. For maize, the predicted decline is as much as 22% by 2050.

ABC News, 17 February 2017:

The impact of several heatwaves so far this year will be felt for some time by primary producers around Australia.

From crop damage, to livestock stress, the impact of these extreme temperatures is yet to be fully understood.

Meanwhile, farmers and wholesalers say they have had to come up with innovative methods of cooling their animals and produce.

But they are not the only ones to feel the impact of the heat; consumers will feel it in their wallets and in the quality available.

Wildlife becoming stressed in sustained heat

Kookaburra, Animals Australia, December 2016

The Daily Examiner, 6 February 2017, p.12:

VOICES FOR THE EARTH

EARTH Charter, Principle 2: "Care for the Community of Life with understanding, compassion and love."

Early January 2017 was for many people a joyous holiday period with family reunions and New Year resolutions but for all of us it was a time of temperatures of 40 degrees or more. Most of NSW experienced an oppressive heat wave and the people of the Clarence Valley sweltered.

Even night temperatures became difficult to bear and people needed to be careful to avoid dehydration. Some newspaper reports suggested the heat wave posed a threat to human health, especially to older people and the very young.

But in the midst of our discomfort did we consider the impact that the heatwave was having on our biodiversity?

Mid-afternoon on January 14 a king parrot suffering from the extreme temperature sought some relief in a shady porch behind our house. Even here the temperature was close to 40.

Her beak was repeatedly opening and closing and her wings were drooping. We were careful not to disturb her and she stayed in that position for at least two hours.

At the front of the house two more king parrots were perched in similar shady positions, again with beak and wings conveying distress.

Do such images have an important communique for our human community?

If we fail to limit our greenhouse gases urgently, if we go ahead with the massive Adani coal project, if the Donald Trump presidency ignores climate change, if... the list goes on.

Will this image of a king parrot suffering from heat wave conditions become a symbol for all life on our planet?

Big questions are looming and the future of our Earth Community - our biodiversity and our grandchildren - will be greatly influenced by our answers.

-- Stan Mussared, Clarence Valley Conservation Coalition

W.I.R.E.S. 2 December 2016:

While most native animals are well adapted to changes in climatic conditions they can still suffer during heatwaves.  Animals can cope with extremes in temperatures they are used to, but if these extremes are unusual for a particular area the animals there will struggle. 

If you can, please put fresh, cool water out for wildlife. Make sure you have a few sticks or stones in bowls or containers so that if small creatures fall in they can make it back out. Where possible refresh the water frequently throughout the day.

Flying-foxes are particularly susceptible to several days with low humidity and very high temperatures. This year with severe food shortages already a factor many populations up and down the coast are already suffering fatalities. If you see flying-foxes, young or old, on the ground or low to the ground in trees please call WIRES 1300 094 737 or use our report a rescue form to report. If you see flying-foxes moving to lower branches or to the ground below their roost trees please call WIRES. It is important that only trained and vaccinated carers rescue distressed and injured flying-foxes or bats.

If you are on a rural property and are concerned about water bowls attracting snakes near the house then you can choose to place shallow bowls around the perimeter fences. This can also assist in providing a water source to deter reptiles from seeking water from dripping taps closer to the house.

Animals with health issues, or are very young or old, will find it harder to cope - just like in people. The increasing loss of suitable habitat including the loss of leafy vegetation and older growth trees with hollows for shelter means more animals are at risk in the heat. 

Tree hollows are particularly essential for our native parrots and many of our marsupials and as less and less are available for shelter it means more creatures may suffer from exposure and more animals may seek refuge in unusual places e.g. garages, sheds or houses.

Please keep an eye out for animals exposed to the elements, but remember DO NOT approach snakes, monitors, flying-foxes, microbats, large macropods or raptors. These animals require specialist handling and MUST be rescued by trained wildlife rescuers. 

So why are the Turnbull & Andrews Governments giving, not loaning, almost a quarter of a billion dollars to Alcoa Corp?

Every blast furnace operator has exactly the same vulnerability - lose power and you lose your primary income producing asset.

But for some reason Alcoa Corp in Victoria was happily smelting along at 85% capacity with no back-up power supply when in early December 2016 along came a storm – a big bad storm like so many these days – and took out the power grid.

The pots that were operational when this happened ‘froze’ and the aluminium inside cooled and solidified.

When the power came back on the Portland plant was only able to work at one third capacity and has since been losing about $1million a day according to media reports.

The corporation stated that this plant will not come back online for at least eight months, that is August 2017.

The Age also reported on 6 January 2017 that:

The outage occurred with remarkable timing – just days after Alcoa's 30-year government-subsidised power contract ended and with power prices set to rise after the closure of the Hazelwood power station.

So it comes as no surprise that the Turnbull Government decided to give, not loan, this approx. 128 year-old New York based multinational company $30 million dollars to continue operating at Portland for another ten years.

The Victorian Government is handing over another $210 million to this corporation and AGL has agreed to a lower price electricity supply price for Alcoa.

Now as I write Alcoa shares on the New York Stock Exchange are $36.47 and rising, with company revenue for the last quarter at $2.5 billion, up 9 percent sequentially, reflecting higher volume in the Company’s rolled products business and higher alumina pricing and a cash balance of $853 million.

Meanwhile rumours are circulating that Alcoa is intending to close the Portland plant by 2020 regardless.

These facts got up the nose of one North Coast Voices reader and he discussed the matter with a mate.

This was the result……

“This was a predictable, preventable & foreseeable occurrence and all the damage was deliberately self-inflicted by management

Every telephone exchange, every ISP, every commercial Data Centre, even every mobile phone tower has backup power.
When the floods hit the Hunter Region of NSW & knocked out power in 2015/6 for a few weeks, the mobile phones kept working - because there weren’t just batteries, there were diesel generators and contractors signed up to refuel them. We know this because it was documented in the Telco community.

So do many more ‘ordinary’ businesses, even high-rise buildings. Not to mention airports & control towers, radio & TV stations and major plant like Oil Refineries.

Grid Power is not, and never has been, a 100% guaranteed service: if that’s a problem for your business, you need to mitigate that commercial risk.
Even if you’re a big factory or industrial site, there will be unplanned outages of the external power supply.
Even something as simple as a vehicle accident taking out a pole, an animal short-circuits

Good managers take out insurance against ‘threats’ to production/income, as an integral part of their formal Risk Management Strategy
This is not odd or extreme behaviour, certainly not in high-value industrial plant….

The Alcoa management right royally screwed over their owners and workers by failing to plan for the inevitable.
And somehow that is now the taxpayer’s responsibility?.....

If Alcoa are “losing $1M/day” from two thirds of its (electric) ‘pot lines’ being ‘frozen’ (the Aluminium set, or ‘froze’) how was unknown to the management?
Every blast furnace operator has exactly the same vulnerability - lose power and you lose your primary income producing asset.

The plant operators will know to the minute how long it takes to do orderly shutdown & startup of the entire production line.
This will be formally documented in fine detail, with many checks & contingencies included.

So why did the management deliberately decide to not ‘mitigate' against this extreme impact event and like thousands of large industrial plants around the country have enough on-site power generation to do a zero-damage shutdown?”

Remembering that Alcoa Australian Holdings Pty Ltd paid no tax and Alcoa Of Australia Limited paid minimal tax  in 2014-15, and probably paid even less last financial year, I think I agree with these two disgruntled men.

I don’t care that on 26 January 2017 The Australian reported that; The head of downsized US aluminium company Alcoa has given a commitment to finding a long-term power solution at its Portland aluminium smelter in the wake of Victoria’s $200 million power subsidy agreement, saying the smelter is “modern and competitive”. The comments were made in the company’s December quarter earnings call on Tuesday night, which discussed a strong result on the back of strong margins and sent shares of its Australian junior partner Alumina soaring 11 per cent to a two-year high.

Foreign-owned Alcoa Corp right royally screwed up and it’s not up to Australian taxpayers to take up the burden of smelter repairs in order to placate the company’s major shareholders.

I don’t care how many shares/units multimillionaire Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull or members of his cabinet might hold in investment companies and banks on that list.

Yes, it was hot last year and no, 2017 is not going to be much better

Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), media release, 5 January 2016

2016 a year of extreme weather events

It was a year of extreme weather events, wetter than average overall, and the fourth-warmest on record for Australia, according to the Bureau of Meteorology’s Annual Climate Statement 2016 released today.

Assistant Director Climate Information Services, Neil Plummer, said 2016 was an eventful year with significant climate drivers affecting the country’s weather.

“The year started off very warm and dry, with bushfires in Victoria, Tasmania and Western Australia, and a nation-wide heatwave from late February to mid-March. We had our warmest autumn on record partly due to a very strong 2015–16 El Niño," Mr Plummer said.

“In May the El Niño broke down and the dry start was followed by record wet from May to September as a negative Indian Ocean Dipole developed, with ocean waters warming to the northwest of Australia.

“Widespread, drought-breaking rains led to flooding in multiple states. Even northern Australia saw widespread rainfall, during what is usually the dry season, greening regions that had been in drought for several years,” he said.

For Australia as a whole, annual rainfall was 17 per cent above average.

Notable events during the wet period included an East Coast Low in June, causing flooding down the east coast of Australia to Tasmania, and damaging coastal erosion in New South Wales. There were also significant storm and wind events which affected the southeast.

In the Murray–Darling Basin, already wet soils and full rivers meant rain caused flooding in many areas throughout September and October.

Australia was warmer than average in 2016, with a national mean temperature 0.87 °C above average, and it was the fourth-warmest year on record.

Sea surface temperatures around Australia were the warmest on record in 2016, and were 0.77°C above average.

The World Meteorological Organization figures have announced that 2016 is very likely to have been the warmest year on record for global mean temperatures.

The Annual Climate Statement is available on the Bureau's website.

Quick facts: Major weather events in 2016

§  Very large fires in northwest Tasmania during January and February following an extended dry period; about 123 800 ha burnt, mostly in remote areas

§  Significant flooding in Tasmania in January

§  Significant fires at the start of the year near Wye River on the Great Ocean Road in Victoria, and in southwest Western Australia affecting Yarloop and Waroona

§  An East Coast Low caused major coastal flooding and erosion in New South Wales in early June, with flooding also affecting Victoria and large areas of Tasmania

§  Flooding occurred from June to September in western, central and southern Queensland following the State’s second-wettest winter on record

§  Periods of flooding in inland New South Wales and northern and western Victoria during September and October

§  Supercell thunderstorms caused extensive damage across southeast Australia and parts of southeast Queensland during early November, with widespread reports of golf-ball sized hail

§  Severe thunderstorms and a tornado outbreak caused widespread damage in South Australia during late September

§  On 21 November, lightning storms associated with a strong and gusty change ignited grassfires across northern Victoria, caused damage across parts of Victoria, and along with a high pollen count, triggered thousands of incidents of thunderstorm asthma.

§  A tropical low at the end of the year brought exceptional December rainfall to a number of regions between the northwest of Australia and the southeast, with some flooding and flash flooding resulting in the Kimberley, around Uluru in Central Australia, and around Adelaide, Melbourne and Hobart.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

BOM Climate outlook overview for 2017:

January to March rainfall is likely to be below average in parts of eastern Australia and above average in northwest and central WA.

The January outlook shows a drier month in the east, while a wetter January is likely in northwest WA and western Tasmania.

Warmer days and nights are likely across eastern and northern Australia, with cooler days and nights more likely in Tasmania and southwest WA.

The outlooks are influenced by the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), as well as warmer waters surrounding northern Australia. SAM is currently negative, and forecast to remain negative through January (a negative SAM means Australia experiences higher pressures than normal, resulting in reduced rainfall and higher temperatures during the summer months). The warmer than normal sea surface temperatures surrounding northern Australia are likely to enhance rainfall in northwest WA (see the Climate Influences section for more detail).

BOM Heatwave Forecasts

Heatwave Situation for Wednesday, Thursday, & Friday (3 days starting 11/01/2017)

Heatwave will persist over similar areas in central and eastern Australia. Severe to extreme heatwave conditions are forecast for much of southern Queensland, northern NSW, northeastern SA and the far southeast of NT.

Just in case you thought the Australian Minister for the Environment and Energy retained the brains he was born with.....

The 1 in 50 year storm, 28 September 2016

Gannawarra Times

This is Liberal MP for Kooyong and Minister for the Environment and Energy, Josh Frydenberg, writing in The Australian on 30 September 2016:

Public expects energy security

The total loss on Wednesday of South Australia’s electricity supply was a seismic event.

People were stuck in lifts, there was chaos on the roads and residents were huddled around candles while they were confined to their homes.

This is unacceptable in modern Australia and there must be a better way.

Energy security is non-negotiable and we are unapologetic in making it our foremost priority.

For too long much of the debate in this country regarding energy policy has focused on emissions reduction, namely how to reduce our carbon footprint to meet our climate change goals, as well as an ideological debate about increasing renewables, whatever the cost.

While a lower emissions future is undoubtedly important, it counts for little to the public if they are sitting in the dark.

We cannot trade away the reliability of the system as we transition to a low-carbon future because to do so would be far costlier in the long run.

This is why we need to understand what exactly took place in South Australia and the reasons behind it.

The preliminary advice to me from the Australian Energy Market Operator is that a once-in-50- years weather event, which included more than 80,000 lightning strikes across the state in one day, blew over more than 20 electricity transmission towers and “tripped” the two interconnectors — Heywood and Murraylink — that send electricity from Victoria to South Australia. But for that weather event, the blackout would never have occurred.

Questions, however, will be asked as to why the initial outage couldn’t be contained, preventing the blackout cascading across the state, and what measures should now be implemented to enhance the resilience of the system.

But regardless of the specific cause of this event, there are significant broader questions about the impact of the changing energy mix on the stability and reliability of the grid; in particular, how the increasing percentage of power generation from intermittent sources such as solar and wind creates large fluctuations in voltage and frequency, challenging the system.

In the words of the Australian Energy Market Commission earlier this month, “the system strength has been reducing” as wind and rooftop solar “have low or no physical inertia and are therefore currently limited in their ability to respond to sudden large changes in electricity supply or consumption”. This is unlike hydro, gas and coal, which by their nature “maintain a consistent operating frequency and maintain the strength of the system in localised networks”.

It was this issue that AEMO identified as most acute in South Australia, as its reliance on wind and solar at 41 per cent of power generation is extremely high and coal and gas-fired power stations at Northern and Pelican Point recently closed.

With South Australia and other states hurtling towards ever higher and aggressive state-based renewable energy targets, it is now time they heed the warnings of our independent energy market experts.

It is quite irresponsible for the Queensland government, with 4.4 per cent of the state’s power presently generated by renewable energy, to commit to a 50 per cent target by 2030; or for the Victorian government, with 12 per cent renewable energy today, to commit to a 40 per cent target by 2025 without a clear and practical road map for getting there with energy security guaranteed.

At the last Council of Australian Governments energy ministers meeting, the commonwealth, states and territories agreed to work on better understanding the impacts state-based renewable targets are having on stability and pricing in the system.

This work may be very important in the federal government’s attempt to harmonise the renewable targets…..

What an utter load of political tosh. Renewable energy targets had nothing to do with what went down in South Australia on Wednesday, 28 September 2016.

It was a large and violent weather event that took out the means of power transmission which led to that widespread power outage not the method by which energy is generated.

In other words, electricity transmission towers were being turned into scrap metal by the mega storm (including three out of the four transmission lines moving power between Adelaide and the north of South Australia), sub stations were being fried by lightning strikes and electricity poles and wires connecting homes/farms to the grid were being brought down by destructive wind gusts up to 130km/h and falling trees.

Images found on Twitter

UPDATE

The Bureau of Meteorology has confirmed that the mega storm included several confirmed tornadoes.

FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NEW SOUTH WALES COASTAL VALLEYS FROM THE QUEENSLAND BORDER TO TAREE FOR THIS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY

IDN36501

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology New South Wales

FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NEW SOUTH WALES COASTAL VALLEYS FROM THE QUEENSLAND BORDER TO TAREE FOR THIS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY

Issued at 11:52 am EST on Wednesday 29 April 2015

##

Note: This Flood Watch is a "heads up" for possible future flooding along all rivers and creeks within a nominated valley and is NOT a Flood Warning [see note below].

Onshore winds and rain will increase as a trough deepens off the northern NSW coast on Thursday and Friday. Another East Coast Low is expected to form within this trough on Saturday near the QLD border before moving south to be offshore of the Mid North Coast on Sunday. The northern half of the coast (Mid North Coast and Northern Rivers) will receive the heaviest rain with multi-day falls of 150-200mm, locally 350+mm from Wednesday night to Saturday. Friday and Saturday will see the heaviest widespread falls.

At this stage there is a greater than 70% chance of flooding in the following river valleys developing during Friday and Saturday:

1. Tweed River valley - moderate to major flooding

2. Brunswick River valley - moderate to major flooding

3. Richmond and Wilsons River valley - moderate to major flooding

4. Clarence River Valley, including the Orara River - minor to moderate flooding

5. Coffs Harbour - minor to moderate flooding

6. Bellinger and Kalang River valley - moderate to major flooding

7. Nambucca River valley - moderate to major flooding

8. Macleay River valley - minor to moderate flooding

9. Hastings River valley - minor to moderate flooding

10. Camden Haven valley - minor to moderate flooding

11. Manning River Valley, including Gloucester - minor to moderate flooding

There is still the possibility of renewed flooding in the Hunter Valley (including the Paterson and Williams Rivers) on Sunday and Monday. This will be reviewed on Thursday based on the latest information.

This Flood Watch means that people living or working along rivers and creeks must monitor the latest weather forecasts and warnings and be ready to move to higher ground should flooding develop. Flood Warnings will be issued if Minor Flood Level is expected to be exceeded at key sites along the main rivers for which the Bureau of Meteorology provides a flood warning service. Across NSW over 70% of Flood Watches are followed by flooding within the catchment.

FloodSafe advice is available at www.ses.nsw.gov.au

For emergency assistance call the SES on telephone number 132 500.

For life threatening emergencies, call 000 immediately.

Weather Forecast:

For the latest weather forecast see www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts/

Next Issue:

This Flood Watch will be renewed by 11am Thursday morning.

For latest rainfall and river level information see www.bom.gov.au/nsw/flood/

Santos' Gladstone LNG expansion proposal involves significant scientific uncertainties according to Federal Government's Independent Expert Scientific Committee

The industrialisation of rural and regional landscapes continue with Santos planning more than 6,000 water hungry gas wells operating for an estimated 30 years across 10,676 square kilometres in Queensland.

The Abbott Government has been in possession of the Independent Expert Scientific Committee’s final report on the Gas Fields Development Project since December 2014, sometime after which it was made publicly available on the Committee’s website.

ABC News 19 February 2015:

Top experts are warning of significant scientific uncertainties arising from a massive coal seam gas expansion proposal in Queensland.

The ABC has obtained a report from the Federal Government's Independent Expert Scientific Committee, which flags a concerning lack of information in project documents and says more work needs to be done on Santos's Gladstone LNG expansion proposal.

The proposed expansion covers 10,676 square kilometres and has the potential to include more than 6,000 gas wells across central Queensland.

"The scale, the early stage and the geographic extent of the proposed project development, together with other significant coal seam gas projects in the region, creates considerable scientific uncertainty about impacts on surface water and groundwater and associated ecosystems," the IESC report said.

According to the report, the potential impacts include:

* Reduced water supply to Groundwater Dependent Ecosystems, including Great Artesian Basin discharge and watercourse springs and endangered ecological communities.

* Changes to groundwater and surface water quality due to direct project activities and management of co-produced water.

* Cumulative impacts of Surat and Bowen basin activities (particularly coal seam gas and coal mining) on groundwater pressures and lag-time effects on water.

The IESC also warned the hydroecological information (including ecological water requirements of systems) was "inadequate" for understanding potential local ecological impacts.

"Methods applied are appropriate to understand regional impacts, particularly cumulative water drawdown," the Committee said.

"However, the methods used are not sufficient for understanding local-scale impacts, particularly to ecological assets.

"Recognising the considerable information provided in the project assessment documentation, the IESC is concerned that relevant data and information from investigations and monitoring from the [Gladstone LNG] Project and Joint Industry Programmes have not been incorporated in the project assessment documentation for [this latest] development."

There is also the matter of weather during cyclone season......

This is the Santos facility at Curtis Island, Gladstone QLD:

Then there is the matter of weather conditions during cyclone season.....

On 19 February 2015 7News reported:

Maritime Safety Queensland (MSQ) spokesman Patrick Quirk said ships would be moved away from Gladstone Harbour this morning as a precaution. "We have about 11 ships in the port and 23 ships at anchor and they'll be asked to clear the area," he said. "We have some LNG tankers also in the area and they'll go to sea to weather the storm."

The Financial Review on 20 February 2015:

Ports in Mackay and Gladstone had been shut down in preparation for the cyclone. Gas company Santos said all of its staff on its GLNG liquefied natural gas project had been moved off Curtis Island, near Gladstone, with workers moved into cyclone-proof accommodation. Bechtel, which has built the three gas processing plants on Curtis Island, said the projects would remain closed until the weather improved.