Climate change largely irreversible for 1,000 years after excessive greenhouse emissions stop?

One of the distressing abstracts found online at the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America:

The severity of damaging human-induced climate change depends not only on the magnitude of the change but also on the potential for irreversibility. This paper shows that the climate change that takes place due to increases in carbon dioxide concentration is largely irreversible for 1,000 years after emissions stop. Following cessation of emissions, removal of atmospheric carbon dioxide decreases radiative forcing, but is largely compensated by slower loss of heat to the ocean, so that atmospheric temperatures do not drop significantly for at least 1,000 years. Among illustrative irreversible impacts that should be expected if atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations increase from current levels near 385 parts per million by volume (ppmv) to a peak of 450–600 ppmv over the coming century are irreversible dry-season rainfall reductions in several regions comparable to those of the “dust bowl” era and inexorable sea level rise. Thermal expansion of the warming ocean provides a conservative lower limit to irreversible global average sea level rise of at least 0.4–1.0 m if 21st century CO2 concentrations exceed 600 ppmv and 0.6–1.9 m for peak CO2 concentrations exceeding ≈1,000 ppmv. Additional contributions from glaciers and ice sheet contributions to future sea level rise are uncertain but may equal or exceed several meters over the next millennium or longer.

Full 2009 paper in PDF form here.

Political evolution NSW-style

I don't think anyone has missed the metamorphosis undergone in the media recently by one murder victim - from wealthy "property developer" to "loan shark and standover man" and worse.
But how many people have noticed that the person or persons allegedly named on that rumoured tape recording have now gone from the very vague "persons connected to NSW Labor" or somewhat vague "state government MPs" to the more specific "senior NSW politicians" or "NSW ministers"?
By yesterday the chatter mill had developed belt and braces, with bribed "senior NSW bureaucrat", "federal Labor politicians" and "police officer" thrown into the mix for good measure.
Seemingly without any print, radio or television journalists (or the NSW Opposition for that matter) having ever listened to this audio tape.
And I thought the local bowlo was good at gossip - the Aussie meeja leaves it for dead! One gossipy whiff and they're off like a Bondi tram.
Given the collective histories and conflicting stories of those non-journalists who have actually said that they heard the tape or knew details of the alleged recorded conversation; is it any wonder that I keep hearing the words 'hysterical beat-up' echoing in my head?

U.S. citizen and Islam convert Abdullah al-Kidd gets his day in court

U.S. President Barack Obama may wish it otherwise, but where government is slow or unwilling to address the former Bush administration's constitutional abuses then the courts are obviously prepared take on this challenge if people are willing to apply.
The quotes below are from a U.S. Court of Appeals opinion in Abdullah al-Kidd v John Ashcroft (former US Attorney General), filed 4th September 2009.

MILAN D. SMITH, JR., Circuit Judge:

According to the allegations of his first amended complaint, Plaintiff-Appellee Abdullah al-Kidd (al-Kidd), a United States citizen and a married man with two children, was arrested at a Dulles International Airport ticket counter. He was handcuffed, taken to the airport's police substation, and interrogated. Over the next sixteen days, he was confined in high security cells lit twenty-four hours a day in Virginia, Oklahoma, and then Idaho, during which he was strip searched on multiple occasions. Each time he was transferred to a different facility, al-Kidd was handcuffed and shackled about his wrists, legs, and waist. He was eventually released from custody by court order, on the conditions that he live with his wife and in-laws in Nevada, limit his travel to Nevada and three other states, surrender his travel documents, regularly report to a probation officer, and consent to home visits throughout the period of supervision. By the time al-Kidd's confinement and supervision ended, fifteen months after his arrest, al-Kidd had been fired from his job as an employee of a government contractor because he was denied a security clearance due to his arrest, and had separated from his wife. He has been unable to obtain steady employment since his arrest. Al-Kidd was not arrested and detained because he had allegedly committed a crime. He alleges that he was arrested and confined because former United States Attorney General John Ashcroft (Ashcroft), subordinates operating under policies promulgated by Ashcroft, and others within the United States Department of Justice (DOJ), unlawfully used the federal material witness statute, 18 U.S.C. § 3144, to investigate or preemptively detain him. Ashcroft asserts that he is entitled to absolute and qualified immunity against al-Kidd's claims. We hold that on the facts pled Ashcroft is not protected by either form of immunity, and we affirm in part and reverse in part the decision of the district court. (my emphasis)

In its conclusion the court quoted Blackstone:

"To bereave a man of life, or by violence to confiscate his estate, without accusation or trial, would be so gross and notorious an act of despotism, as must at once convey the alarm of tyranny throughout the whole kingdom. But confinement of the person, by secretly hurrying him to gaol, where his sufferings are unknown or forgotten; is a less public, a less striking, and therefore a more dangerous engine of arbitrary government."

WILLIAM BLACKSTONE, COMMENTARIES ON THE LAWS OF ENGLAND 131-32 (1765)

Mischief's bad utterances cost him a date with Max

It seems the Northern Territory is the place to be if one wants to meet a talking feline.


After the news about Mischief the talkative cat broke another NT cat's owner declared that her cat Max was also a talking cat.

Mischief, who featured previously on this site, was all set to meet and have a chat with Max. Well, that's what Mischief's owner Robert "RJ" Duncan thought was on the cards.

However, Max's owner Mrs Snowball put a stop on any dalliance involving Mischief and Max.

The Northern Territory News reports that Mrs Snowball declined Mr Duncan's invitation because she doesn't want her cat picking up Mischief's bad habit of swearing.

According to Mrs Snowball, her cat Max can pronounce all her family members' names. Clever Max can even pronounce names with double syllables.

Sadly, there are no pics of Max - he's camera shy.

pic of Mischief from NT News

The staff of life: one man's dissent against his government

On 13 September 2009 (with little advance fanfare) it becomes mandatory to add folic acid to Australian wheat flour product at source, excepting organic flour.

An 110 year-old family run South Australian flour mill is firmly refusing to comply and on 28 August issued this letter to all its customers.

Which by an old 1960s yard stick means that civil war has broken out in Australia.

NSW public hospitals once more becoming thought of as a place you go to die?

When I was a nipper a hospital was considered a place you went to die.
By the time I became an adult hospitals had become places where you went to be treated and maybe if you were lucky, cured.
Now as I get even older and read the growing litany of medical errors, I begin to wonder if perceptions are swinging back again and we're once more becoming afraid of hospitals?
Take this old man left on a bedpan for so long in a public hospital that he had to have surgery for the ulcers this disgusting neglect created.
NSW Health Care Commission media releases over the last twelve months don't instill a lot of confidence either. Neither does the growing list of doctors, nurses, pharmacists, psychologists etc. who are either reprimanded, suspended or deregistered in this state.
If you want a real scare - just read this May 2009 Medical Journal of Australia article which looked at the chances of survival if a baby is born in a public hospital:
"After adjusting for the same maternal variables, serious adverse neonatal outcomes showed similar differences between the two hospital groups.
Term babies born in public hospitals were more likely to require high levels of resuscitation, to have an Apgar score < 7 at 5 minutes, and to require admission to a neonatal intensive care facility or special care nursery (Box 3).
Perinatal death was twice as likely for babies born in public hospitals.
Even using a composite for adverse perinatal outcome (patients with at least one adverse outcome), the unadjusted OR was 1.30 (95% CI, 1.28–1.33) for public hospital deliveries.
When the adverse perinatal outcomes were compared individually by method of birth, the differences between public and private hospital sectors persisted for all the adverse outcomes studied (data not shown).
For example, for spontaneous vaginal births, the rate of Apgar score < 7 at 5 minutes was 0.9% in the public group compared with 0.6% in the private group.
The differences for forceps deliveries (1.6% v 1.1%), ventouse deliveries (2.1% v 1.4%), and caesarean sections (1.3% v 0.5%) showed a similar pattern.
The rates of perinatal death were similarly lower in private hospitals for each method of birth: spontaneous vaginal birth (0.2% v 0.1%); forceps delivery (0.5% v 0.2%); ventouse delivery (0.2% v 0.1%); and caesarean section (0.3% v 0.1%)...
Conclusion: For women delivering a single baby at term in Australia, the prevalence of adverse perinatal outcomes is higher in public hospitals than in private hospitals."

So Prime Minister Rudd - when are you going to fix this appalling state of affairs?

The one liner doing the rounds in the Emerald City

Events in Macquarie Street - and elsewhere - last week
produced this gem:

"The NSW Government is like IKEA - one loose screw and the whole cabinet falls apart."

Thanks goes to The Fitz Files in The Sun Herald for that ripper!

A WTF moment for NSW Health

Last week if you were placed on hold by the Maclean District Hospital switchboard, along with the canned Musak you would have heard a voice tell you that this hospital had three rooms with en suite and Austar television available for in-patients with private health insurance.

Now Maclean District Hospital is a public hospital in the North Coast Area Health Service and it is sometimes stretched for beds, so it is not unknown for wards to be culled for people to send home so that new (and sometimes more urgent) cases can be admitted.

Which makes one wonder - if a well-off retiree whose insurance is paying out to the area health service and an old-age pensioner on Medicare were to be assessed in such a cull, which one would be sent home?

If you picked the retiree as the patient most likely to be sent home I suspect that you wouldn't get the cigar - human nature and hospital bottom lines just don't work that way.

These three beds are not a good look for NSW Health and definitely not a good look for a Rudd Government seeking to work cooperatively with the states towards a better public health care system.

Mungo doesn't mess about when it comes to L'l Johnnie Howard

This classic Mungo MacCallum phrasing turned up in Crikey last Monday:

"And speaking of past leaders ... John Howard bobbed back up in the bowl last week to give us a bit of advice on, of all things, human rights. Truly the man has no shame.

The Prime Minister whose government incarcerated innocent children behind razor wire until they literally went mad and abandoned its own citizens to illegal imprisonment and torture by a foreign power now warns us that judges and lawyers should not be allowed to tamper with decisions made by politicians elected by "ordinary" people. Any attempt to change our unsurpassable current arrangements would represent the final triumph of elitism and be an abrogation of the very idea of the sovereignty of the people."

Australian society: two faces of the young today

It has ever been thus, that members of the ruling generation think the generation following is less than they were when young.
The truth of the matter is that the best and worst aspects of any society are often mirrored in the behaviour of children.

Here are two examples in the local media on the same day.

The Daily Examiner, 31 August 2009 Click image to enlarge

Good work, lad

ON July 6, my mother aged over 70 years, was walking along Little High Street, Yamba. Her mobility is restricted, and while negotiating the uneven path she fell to the ground, her head striking a parked car on the way down.
She is alright, however was sore for a number of days and had to receive ongoing; treatment to her injured arm.
I grew up on the Lower Clarence, but have not lived there for over 20 years. I am penning this letter to show my family's appreciation of an unknown teenager who came to her aid.
According to my mother the boy was in about Year 9 (14 or 15 years of age). The boy physically lifted my mother from the ground, despite my mother telling him that he would not be able to lift her.
He escorted her to a nearby chemist, being the Yamba Pharmacy, where the staff treated her.
The boy stayed with her while she was treated, and would not leave until he knew that she was alright. For the days following, staff at Yamba Pharmacy treated my mother's wounds. We thank those staff members for the assistance and care they have shown for our mother.
That is not all. What has really impressed me and my family is the boy repeatedly apologised for not being quick enough to catch my mother as she was falling.
If the young boy happens to read this letter, we want you to know that we are very grateful for your help on that day.
Further, you and your family should be very proud of your actions. Thank you.
This comes at a time when the youth of today regularly bring themselves under notice in all communities, for the wrong reasons, but not this lad.
Well done, you have a bright future.

JOCK HENRY,
Mudgee.
[The Daily Examiner, letter to the editor,31 August 2009]

2009 Grafton Jacaranda Festival Queen Candidates

Click on poster to enlarge

The 75th Jacaranda Festival Matron of Honour and 2009 Queen Candidates

Top row: Matron of Honour Christine Hackett & Kim McClymont

Second row: Lorelela Abele & Abbey Browning

Third row: Samantha Dive & Keira Ellingwood

Fourth row: Mackenzie Harvison & Miranda Predo

Bottom row: Alison Smith & Amanda Finucane

The Jacaranda Festival runs from 30 October to 8 November 2009 at Grafton in the Clarence Valley NSW

Jacaranda Festival website

Water raiders still after Clarence River water and now looking to NSW Government

Obviously worried about the fact that the Rudd Government stands firmly behind the Northern Rivers and Clarence Valley opposition to damming and diverting environmentally sensitive coastal rivers, the Murray Darling Association is hedging its bets by also looking at twisting the arm of the NSW Government.

From A Clarence Valley Protest today:

Murray Darling Association members may be bickering at their annual conference but they are still fixed on the idea of Clarence River water diversion

The 65th Murray Darling Association annual conference is drawing to a close at Playford, SA and today at its annual general meeting the association will vote on not one but two motions concerning Clarence River water diversion.

Although association members are throwing around vague accusations about water theft and abuse within the Murray Darling Basin, they seem oblivious to the fact that this is the intent behind their motions concerning the NSW North Coast Clarence River catchment.

According to the Playford AGM Agenda:

13.2 Clarence River Region 2
For many years, Region 2 has been raising the issue of a feasibility study to dam part of the
Clarence River and divert some of the water inland to the Murray-Darling Basin to help alleviate water shortages. The Federal Government has made it quite clear that it will not support any such project but the NSW Government has not been as clear on the issue. Some years ago, the Association supported a feasibility study into the idea.
RECOMMENDATION: That the NSW Government be asked to respond directly to community requests over the years that part of the Clarence River be dammed to minimise flood damage and to divert some of the water inland to the Murray-Darling Basin.

13.3 Clarence River diversion Region 6
This proposed diversion of the Clarence River was first discussed in the 1930s. The Fraser
Government allocated $4 million to fund a feasibility study into the scheme. The Hawke
Government discontinued this. The proposal, if feasible, would involve the construction of a
headwater dam on the Clarence River, with a 22km tunnel under the Gibralta Ranges in Northern NSW. This tunnel would emerge on the Murray-Darling Basin side of the ranges and feed into the Beardy River, then the McIntyre River and, ultimately into the Basin. The Gibralta Ranges are situated in one of the highest rainfall areas in Australia. Benefits of the scheme include:
• The dams would have storage capacity approaching that of the Snowy Mountains
Scheme.
• The capacity of the headwater storage would provide flood control to the Clarence Valley.
• The diversion would only require 24% of the total maximum storage volumes of water to
provide similar volumes of water to the Basin as the Snowy Mountains Scheme.
• The generation of hydro-electricity is another major benefit.
This motion is not a request to build the scheme, but to revisit it in the context of recent climatic
events and over-allocations in the Murray Darling Basin.
RECOMMENDATION: That the MDA requests the Federal Government, as a matter of urgency, to commission a report on the Clarence River Diversion Proposal relative to water flows through the Murray-Darling system and to make that report widely available.

Howzaat!

I must say that my understanding of cricket matches is limited to memories of forming part of a backyard team each summer school holidays.
This exchange in The Australian 's First Byte between Ashes tragics tickled both fancy and memory.

• 27 August 2009

After 24 hours of careful consideration, I have come to the conclusion that the reason why Australia lost the Ashes was because England made more runs.

Tom Rundell
Warana, Qld

• 28 August 2009

Sadly for Tom Rundell (First Byte, 27/8), here's the basic truth of the matter. Australia lost the Ashes because England won more Test matches. Overall, England managed a meagre 2869 runs, while Australia scored a mammoth 2886. And, to rub more salt into our wounds, England lost a staggering 84 wickets in achieving its tally, while Australia lost just 71.

Col Shephard
Yamba, NSW