The poll that really counts? Punters still not favouring Abbott-led Coalition

Possum Comitatus chart from Pollytics 12 March 2010

Betting markets may not hold all the answers but they have been uncannily predictive of real world political wins in more than a few local, state and national elections in the USA, Britain and Australia over the last decade according to the Political Forecasting Unit/Betting Research Unit at Nottingham Trent University U.K.

While in America; Justin Wolfers, a Stanford University finance professor, came to a similar conclusion in a study that examined the accuracy of bookmakers predicting the outcome of Australia's federal election.
In a survey of wagering on Australia's 2001 federal election, Wolfers found that the candidate favored by the country's largest bookmaker, Centrebet, prevailed in 43 of 47 contests.

Wolfers & Leigh in the Australian Journal of Political Science Vol 37:
Centrebet also offered odds on the outcomes in 47 electorates. Figure 6 focuses on the betting favourite in each race, plotting the probability of victory implicit in these odds against their two-party-preferred vote share. In 43 of 47 cases, the betting favourite won the election. Indeed, all 13 ALP candidates who were fancied in the betting won, while the four losers comprised two National Party MPs and two Liberals. Moreover, candidates who were more highly fancied also won a greater share of votes. Given that most marginal seats were in this sample, the fact that the market correctly selected so many tight races is quite extraordinary.

Possum gives us the graph above this week based on the Centerbet, IASbet, Sportingbet and Betfair markets which (only around 4-6 months out from writs being issued) must give the Coalition pause for thought concerning both Tony Abbott and election promises.

Time for all candidates to become acquainted with the betting odds?

Australia's Climate Action Summit 13-15 March 2010 Canberra

From the Environmental Defender's Office (NSW) weekly bulletin:

Australia's Climate Action Summit 2010

The grassroots climate movement summit is happening in Canberra at the Australian National University between 13-15 March. http://www.climatesummit.org.au

Google's Street View rubbishes Grafton

A Grafton street before the 'rubbishing'

There were a few wry smiles in the Clarence Valley this week as "The Daily Examiner" reported that Google's Street View camera car was recording Grafton streets right in the middle of council's curbside household rubbish collection last time it passed through.

Expect to see some Grafton streets sporting old beds, kitchen sinks, broken pedestal fans and discarded rugs on footpaths when snapped in the latest photos available on Google Earth and Maps sometime in the next six months.

How Scientology sees itself and how the world views this group in return

It's not unusual for there to be differing perceptions within society of a particular group or institution and this week Scientology was under the microscope once again.

Here are what might be characterised as the two faces of this quasi-religion.

The official Scientology website indicates how this group would like the world to see it:

In the five decades since the founding of the first Church of Scientology in 1954, Scientology has become the fastest-growing religion in the world.
Today, its scope extends across 164 countries, with 7,500 churches, missions and groups serving millions of parishioners in 53 languages. .....
Scientology is the only major new religion to emerge in the 20th century.......
Scientologists have always been a relentless voice in search of social reform and justice. We have brought to light such issues as the enforced drugging of school children, the dangers of psychiatric brutalities such as electric shock treatment and lobotomy; and the chemical and biological warfare experiments secretly undertaken against unwitting American citizens. Churches of Scientology also have championed the principle of open government and pioneered the use of the Freedom of Information Act to eradicate abuses.
It is because churches of Scientology and their members are so active, and because Scientology is a large and growing international religion, that Scientology continues to be a subject of significant public and media interest......
The Aims of Scientology, as stated by Scientology Founder L. Ron Hubbard are:
"A civilization without insanity, without criminals and without war, where the able can prosper and honest beings can have rights, and where man is free to rise to greater heights."

The world's response to Scientology commonly features statements like these:

* Scientology. The name is a travesty of science. The reality is a burlesque of religion.

* Australian of the Year Professor Patrick McGorry has thrown his weight behind calls for a Senate inquiry into the Church of Scientology, saying the church's teachings are putting Australians' lives at risk.

* Some of us have lost our families due to Scientology's Disconnection Policy, some of us have experienced physical abuse, and some of us were denied a proper education.

* Lisa died needlessly at the hands of Scientology.

* In 1978, L. Ron Hubbard, creator of Scientology, was convicted for illegal business practices, namely, making false claims about his ability to cure physical illnesses. He was sentenced to four years in prison, which was never served.

* The NSW Greens have lodged an official complaint over an advertising leaflet for a school in Sydney which they say fails to reveal the school's link to Scientology.

* Defectors Say Church of Scientology Hides Abuse

* Just three weeks ago the internet was buzzing with news of a new initiative from the organization. CoS had hired three prize-winning journalists to investigate the St. Petersburg Times, a newspaper that had been investigating them for over 30 years and won a Pulitzer Prize for their coverage in 1980.

* Scientology has been hit by a fresh wave of allegations, likely to give added weight to calls for a Senate inquiry into the church.
Several Australians have spoken out for the first time about their experiences with the church, accusing it of forced abortions, holding slave labour camps and exploiting child workers.
Former rugby league player Joe Reaiche told ABC's Four Corners program on Monday of being coerced into spending $400,000 on spiritual books and being paid just $20 a week as an employee.

Monsanto's greed exceeds itself

Anyone who has been following the fortunes of biotech companies associated with genetically modified seed will recall Monsanto & Co's oft repeated claim that it's really in the business of feeding the world and not the simple pursuit of profit.

Once more in 2010 this monopolisitic multinational's actions give lie to the PR spin, as it is discovered trying to assert royalty rights over Cefetra's imported animal feed product made from GMO Roundup-ready soybean and accusing this company and others of infringing its patent.
The ruling mentioned below appears to be an interim opinion with the court's final ruling expected sometime later in the year.

The owner of a patented strain of herbicide-resistant soy can't collect royalties on soy meal imported from Argentina and used for animal feed, a European Court of Justice adviser ruled.
Though the soy meal contains residue of Monsanto's patented gene, it's no longer being used for its patented purpose of resisting pesticides.
Monsanto developed glyphosate, a broad-spectrum pesticide marketed under the name Roundup, along with Roundup-ready crops, which are genetically engineered to resist glyphosate.
Advocate General Paolo Mengozzi, in response to a request for clarification from a Dutch court, advised the high court that a European Union biotech directive distinguishes between simple discovery and invention of genetic code.
DNA that simply exists isn't patentable under the EU directive, Mengozzi stated, because this would allow an "unspecified number of derivative products" to fall under control of the patent-holder. For a patent to be enforceable, the genetic information must be "performing the functions described in the patent," Mengozzi said.
The ruling shot down Monsanto's demand for royalties from Dutch importers of genetically modified soybean meal. Although the soy meal, used for animal feed, contains "residue" of the Roundup-ready gene, after harvest the code is no longer active in its purpose of resisting the pesticide, Mengozzi ruled.

European Court of Justice full interim opinion transcript here.

Hartsuyker the Hypocrite

This is what the Federal Nats MP Luke Hartsuyker is saying in his first 2010 e-newsletter sent this week:
"Many tertiary students have started their 2010 studies uncertain about the entitlement to Independent Youth Allowance and Commonwealth scholarships."
Of course they have Luke - you and your mates voted to block passage of the government bill which would have established the guidelines and payment schedule for these entitlements!