November 06 2013
Finding No. 5279
Topic: Federal Poll Public Opinion
Finding No. 5279 - This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via SMS and face-to-face interviewing on the weekend of November 2/3, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,077 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 0.5% (down 2%) did not name a party.
On a two-party preferred basis the L-NP is 50%, down 1.5% since the Morgan Poll of October 19/20, 2013. ALP support is 50%, up 1.5%. If an election were held now the result would be too close to call according to the Morgan Poll. This multi-mode Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted last weekend (November 2/3, 2013) with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,077 Australian electors aged 18+.
The L-NP primary vote is 41.5% (down 2%) ahead of the ALP primary vote at 35% (up 0.5%).
Among the minor parties Greens support is 10.5% (up 0.5%), support for the Palmer United Party (PUP) is 5.5% (up 1%) and support for Independents/Others is 7.5% (unchanged). Support for PUP is highest in Clive Palmer’s home State of Queensland (12.5%).
Analysis by Gender
Analysis by Gender shows support for the ALP has increased strongly among women. Women favour the ALP 52.5% (up 2.5% since October 19/20, 2013) cf. L-NP 47.5% (down 2.5%) on a two party preferred basis. However, men continue to favour the L-NP 52.5% (down 0.5%) cf. ALP 47.5% (up 0.5%).
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is now at 114.5, up 0.5pts since October 19/20, 2013. Now 45.5% (up 3%) of Australians say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 31% (up 2.5%) say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.
The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll.
Gary Morgan says:
“The L-NP (50%, down 1.5% over the past two weeks) and ALP (50%, up 1.5%) are now level on a two-party preferred basis after the final election results were at last declared. Palmer United Party (PUP) founder Clive Palmer won a tight contest for the Sunshine Coast seat of Fairfax (by only 53 votes) while in Western Australia the final Senate result is in doubt after the AEC admitted losing 1,375 ballots between the initial count and the re-count.
“The lost ballots in WA mean the High Court of Australia will have to determine whether the WA Senate results are valid, or whether a new election to elect six WA Senators is required. Most media commentators believe a fresh WA Senate election early in 2014 is the most likely outcome – the new Senators are not due to take their position until July 2014.”
Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today - which party will receive your first preference?”
Finding No. 5279 - This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via SMS and face-to-face interviewing on the weekend of November 2/3, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,077 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 0.5% (down 2%) did not name a party.
Data Tables
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
Sample Size
|
Percentage Estimate
|
40%-60%
|
25% or 75%
|
10% or 90%
|
5% or 95%
|
500
|
±4.5
|
±3.9
|
±2.7
|
±1.9
|
1,000
|
±3.2
|
±2.7
|
±1.9
|
±1.4
|
1,500
|
±2.6
|
±2.2
|
±1.5
|
±1.1
|
2,000
|
±2.2
|
±1.9
|
±1.3
|
±1.0
|
