Showing posts sorted by date for query newspoll. Sort by relevance Show all posts
Showing posts sorted by date for query newspoll. Sort by relevance Show all posts

Monday 22 April 2024

Newspoll April 2024 sees little wind in political parties' sails

 


Federal Primary Voting Intent:


ALP 33 (+1)


L/NP Coalition 38 (+1)


Greens 12 (-1)


One Nation 7 (0)


Other 10 (-1)



Federal Two Party Preferred Prediction:


Click on image to enlarge









ALP 51 (0)


L/NP Coalition 49 (0)



Better Prime Minister:



Click on image to enlarge


Albanese 48 (0)


Dutton 35 (+1)




Net Approval Rating


Anthony Albanese:  -6 (+1) 


Peter Dutton:  -15 (0) 



Newspoll was conducted by YouGov on Monday 15 to Friday 19 April 2024 and survey pool was 1,236


Thursday 28 March 2024

Well now the Chicken Little's of Australian journalism have moved on to other topics, here is another perspective on that latest Newspoll

 

Well the headlines this week ran a particular pessimistic line.....


Fresh Newspoll suggests Labor spiralling towards minority government at next election in worst result since Voice defeat [Sky News, 25.03.24]


Newspoll: Labor on slide as new year reset fades [The Australian, 25.03.24]


Newspoll: Worst result for Albanese gov since referendum backlash [The Courier Mail, 25.03.25]


Federal Labor's Popularity Slips In Latest Newspoll [10Play, 25.03.25]


Voters’ harsh verdict on Labor as cost of living bites [The Daily Telegraph, 25 March 2025]


So what exactly did the latest Newspoll survey results show?


NEWSPOLL, Sunday 24 March 2024

Newspoll was conducted by YouGov from 18-22 March using a survey pool of 1,223 participants.


Federal Primary Voting Intent:

ALP 32 (-1)

L/NP Coalition 37 (+1)

Greens 13 (+1)

One Nation 7 (+1)

Other 11


Federal Two Party Preferred Prediction:

ALP 51 (-1)

L/NP Coalition 49 (+1)



Click on image to enlarge






Better Prime Minister:

Albanese 48 (+1)

Dutton 34 (-1)


Approval Rating

Anthony Albanese: Approve 44 (+1) Disapprove 51 (0)

Peter Dutton: Approve 37 (0) Disapprove 52 (+1)


By way of context


On 24 March 2024 the nation was 61 weeks out from the last possible date for next federal general election, 17 May 2025.


This 24 March the two party preferred outcome of 51-49 in Labor's favour mirrored past Newspolls on:


28 April, 5 & 12 May 2019

12 Jan, 23 Feb & 15 March 2020

25 April, 16 May & 27 June 2021.


In Newspoll on those same dates the Coalition had the higher primary vote on:


28 April, 5 & 12 May 2019

12 January, 23 February & 15 March 2020

25 April, 16 May & 27 June 2021.

 


With the 16 May 2021 Coalition primary vote lead being a 5 point advantage making it an identical voting intention & prediction poll with this week's 24 March 2024 poll.


At approximtely 61 weeks out from May 2022 federal election, Newspoll was showing a two-party preferred prediction outcome of 52-48 in Labour's favour and, a primary voting intention outcome of somewhere between 40-38 & 42-37 in the Coalition's favour by 2-5 points.


It would seem this is a road well travelled and this far out from an election gives no real indication of the mood of a national electorate in May 2025.



Wednesday 28 February 2024

Newspoll 2024: fourteen months out from the likely date of the next Australian federal election and the Coalition is limping along

 

The Australian, Newspoll, 25 February 2024:


Two Party Preferred Voting Intention January 2019 to February 2024
IMAGE: The Australian, 25.02.24
Click on image to enlarge







FEDERAL FIRST PREFERENCE VOTING INTENTIONS


Australian Labor 33 (down 1)


Liberal-Nationals Coalition — 36 (no change)


The Greens — 12 (no change)


One Nation — 6 (no change)


Others — 13 (up 2)



FEDERAL TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTING INTENTIONS


Australian Labor 52 (no change)


Liberal-Nationals Coalition — 48 (no change)



PREFERRED PRIME MINISTER


Anthony Albanese — 47 (up 1)


Peter Dutton — 35 (no change)



LEADER'S APPROVAL


Albanese:

Approve — 43 (up 1)

Disapprove — 51 (no change)


Dutton:

Approve — 37 (no change)

Disapprove — 51 (up 1) 



NOTE:

Results are based on the responses of 1,245 participants in the YouGov survey, which are weighted to be representative of the population by age, gender, education, AEC region, household income, weighting by past vote (Federal vote and Voice referendum). This Newspoll was published in The Australian on 25.02.24



At this point in time the expectation is that Australian will go to a federal general election sometime in May 2025, roughly 14 months away. 


Fourteen months out from the May 2022 federal election in the 21 February 2021 Newspoll, Labor's primary vote stood at 36 to the Liberal-Nationals Coalition's 42.

While Labor and the Coalition stood neck and neck on the two party preferred graph at 50 points.


At the actual general election on 21 May 2022 Labor won government with a House of Representatives count of 77 seats to the Coalition's 58 seats - with minor parties & independents holding 16 seats - giving the Albanese Government a one seat majority. The Newspoll of 13 May 2023 had posited a Labor win of 54 to the Coalition's 48.



Tuesday 6 February 2024

It appears that Peter Dutton's drive to label Labor's proposed amended Stage 3 Tax Cuts as "a betrayal" and his accusation that the PM was "lying to the public" have fallen on predominately deaf ears across the national electorate


The Australian's Newspoll of 4 February 2024 was published Monday 5 February.


This was the first Newspoll of 2024 after a seven week gap since previous polling in December 2023.


The published results are based on a survey of 1,245 voters who were surveyed between Wednesday, 31 January and Saturday, 3 February 2024.


PRIMARY VOTE

Labor (sitting federal government) — 34 (up 1)

Coalition (L-NP opposition) — 36 (no change)

The Greens12 (down 1)

One Nation 7 (no change)


TWO PARTY PREFERRED

Labor52 (no change)

Coalition48 (no change)


PREFFERED PRIME MINISTER

Anthony Albanese (current incumbent) 46 (no change)

Peter Dutton (current opposition leader)35 (no change)

Uncommitted  19 (no change)


APPROVAL RATING


Albanese:

Approve 42 (no change)

Disapprove 51 (up 1)

Dutton:

Approve 37 (down 2)

Disapprove 50 (up 2)


PROPOSAL TO AMEND STAGE 3 TAX CUTS




IMAGE: via @GrogsGamut Click on image to enlarge


According to The Australian's Page One on 5 February, "Mr Albanese has said the tax cuts were aimed at Middle Australia. This was supported by the poll results, which showed that 43 per cent of 35- to 49-year-olds said they would be better off and 44 per cent of 50- to 64-year-olds agreeing they would benefit....

The Newspoll showed female voters were significantly more likely to support the tax cuts than men: 65-59 per cent.

Those aged between 50 and 64 were also the most supportive of the change"


The Australian Parliament resumed on Tuesday 5 January, with the government planning to introduce legislation to replace the stage three tax cuts with a new tax rate table


Hopefully the government's amendments will pass unopposed and unamended by the Liberal-Nationals Coalition.


If for no other reason than Morrison's Treasury Laws Amendment in 2019 will no longer survive to fulfil its unofficial alternative title and descriptions: Treasury Laws Amendment (Tax Relief So Working Australians Keep More Of Their Money But Not For A Really Long Time) Bill 2019 aka "a tax package that is both fiscally irresponsible and unfair", "unfair and unjust", "a con job" making "inequality worse".


Sources:

Australian Parliament, Hansard, June 2018 to July 2019

9 News, 25.01.24

The Daily Telegraph, 26.01.24

AAP General Newswire, 04.02.24

The Australian, 05.02.24

Ghost Who Votes (@GhostWhoVotes), 05.02.24

Grog's Gamut (@GrogsGamut), 05.02.24



Wednesday 29 November 2023

Battle of the Political Opinion Polls November 2023

 

Two very different sources, two very different results, published two days apart - who does one believe?


Roy Morgan Research, Market Research Update, email, 28 November 2023:


Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention shows support for the ALP recovering – up 3% points: ALP 52.5% cf. L-NP 47.5%



The ALP has regained the lead on 52.5% (up 3% on a week ago) ahead of the Coalition on 47.5% (down 3%) on a two-party preferred basis according to the latest Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention conducted last week.


The result halts a run of three straight weeks of declines for the ALP.


On primary vote the Coalition is now on 35%, down 2.5% from a week ago, ahead of the ALP on 32%, up 2.5%. The Greens are unchanged on 13.5% and One Nation is on 5%, down 1.5%.


There has been a gain in support for Independents on 9%, up 2%, but a drop in support for Other Parties on 5.5%, down 0.5%.


The latest Roy Morgan Poll is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,379 Australian electors from November 20-26, 2023.



The Australian, Latest Newspoll, 26 November 2023:


Newspoll Two Party Preferred results
10.02.19 to 25.11.23
Click on image to enlarge





Federal Primary Voting Intention:

ALP 31 (-4)

Coalition 38 (+1)

Greens 13 (+1)

One Nation 6 (no change)

Other 12 (+2)


Federal Two Party Preferred:

ALP 50 (-2)

Coalition 50 (+2)


Preferred Prime Minister:

Albanese 46 (no change)

Dutton 35 (-1)


Leaders Approval Rating:

Dutton: Approve 37 (no change) Disapprove 50 (no change)

Albanese: Approve 40 (-2) Disapprove 53 (+1)



Thursday 28 September 2023

Newspoll published Monday 25 September 2023: a curate's egg, good in parts

 

Newspoll published 25 September 2023:


24 September 2023



VOTING INTENTION PRIMARY VOTE


Labor36 points (+1)

Coalition36 points (-1)

Greens11 points (-2)

One Nation6 points (-1)

Others11 points (+3)



VOTING INTENTION TWO-PARTY PREFERRED (TPP)


Labor – 54 points (+1)

Coalition – 46 points (-1)


Click on graph to enlarge











BETTER PM


Anthony Albanese – 50 points (no change)

Peter Dutton – 30 points (-1)



APPROVAL/DISAPPROVAL RATING


Anthony AlbaneseApprove 47 points (+1)

                                   Disapprove 44 points (-3)

Peter Dutton Approve 32 points (-6)

      Disapprove 52 points (+3)

      Net Approval -20 points



Aboriginal & Torres Strait Islander Voice to Parliament Referendum Voting Intention


YES36 points (-2 )

NO56 points (+3 )

UNDECIDED8 points (-1)



Wednesday 19 July 2023

NATIONAL REFERENDUM 2023: from this point onwards it may be less safe for people of goodwill to venture into public spaces - so tainted with malice and misinformation has the debate become courtesy of those parliamentary dissenters

 

For months now the entire country has known the exact wording of the national referendum question and text of the constitutional amendment which will create a permanent advisory body composed of Aboriginal & Torres Strait Islander representatives of the First Nations peoples of Australia.


National Referendum Question


A Proposed Law: to alter the Constitution to recognise the First Peoples of Australia by establishing an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice.


Do you approve this proposed alteration?”


**********


Text of additional clause to be inserted in the Constitution if referendum question is answered by a double majority in the affirmative


Chapter IX Recognition of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peoples


129 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice


In recognition of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples as the First Peoples of Australia:


there shall be a body, to be called the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice;

the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice may make representations to the Parliament and the Executive Government of the Commonwealth on matters relating to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples;

the Parliament shall, subject to this Constitution, have power to make laws with respect to matters relating to the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice, including its composition, functions, powers and procedures.”

**********


On the morning of Wednesday, 31 May 2023 the second and third reading of the Constitution Alteration (Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice) 2023 Bill occurred in the House of Representatives and was passed by a majority of the House with just 25 members out of a total of 145 members dissenting.


The parliamentary dissenters in alphabetical order were:

Birrell, Sam. J. Boyce, C. E. Buchholz, Scott (Teller)

Chester, Darren J. Conaghan, Patrick J. Coulton, Mark M. (Teller)

Gillespie, David A. Goodenough, Ian R.

Hamilton, G. R. Hawke, Alexander G. Hogan, Kevin J. 

Howarth, Luke R.

Joyce, Barnaby T. G.

Landry, Michelle L. Littleproud, David

McCormack, Michael F.

O'Brien, Llewellyn S.

Pasin, Anthony Pike, Henry J. Pitt, Keith J.

Wallace, Andrew B. Webster, A. E. Willcox, Andrew J. 

Wilson, Richard. J. and

Young, Terry J.


A majority of these dissenters took it upon themselves to organise and conduct a “No” campaign against the proposed Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice to Parliament once the referendum question had been approved by a majority in the House of Representatives.


Advance Aus Ltd formerly Freedom Aus Limited, Advance formerly known as Advance Australia & Fair Australia (both associated with Advance Aus Ltd), Recognise a Better Way, Whitestone Strategic Pty Ltd, Texas-based RJ Dunham & Co, Matthew Sheahan, Vicki Dunne, Laura Bradley, Simon Fenwick, Marcus Blackmore and former Liberal MP Tony Abbott are among the companies & persons which assist the dissenters in their apparent aim to sow doubt and division ahead of the referendum.  [AFR, 10.04.23 & The Guardian, 13.07.23].


In this they appear to have had some measure of success.


According to custom, the parliamentary dissenters have also produced the official No” campaign pamphlet titled “The case for voting No” which can be read in full and downloaded at:

https://www.aec.gov.au/referendums/files/pamphlet/the-case-for-voting-no.pdf


The first page summary text is as follows:


REASONS TO VOTE NO – A SUMMARY

This Referendum is not simply about “recognition”. This Voice proposal goes much further.

If passed, it would represent the biggest change to our Constitution in our history.

It is legally risky, with unknown consequences. It would be divisive and permanent.

If you don’t know, vote no.


RISKY

We all want to help Indigenous Australians in disadvantaged communities. However, this Voice is not the answer and presents a real risk to our system of government.

This Voice specifically covers all areas of “Executive Government”. This means no issue is beyond its reach.

The High Court would ultimately determine its powers, not the Parliament.

It risks legal challenges, delays and dysfunctional government.


UNKNOWN

No details have been provided on how members of the Voice would be chosen or how it would operate. Australians are being asked to vote first before these details are worked out.

Australians should have details before the vote, not after.

We don’t know how it will work, we don’t know who will be on it, but we do know it will permanently divide us as Australians.

Some Voice supporters say this would just be a first step to reparations and compensation and other radical changes. So, what would come next?


DIVISIVE

Enshrining a Voice in the Constitution for only one group of Australians means permanently dividing our country.

It creates different classes of citizenship through an unknown body that has the full force of the Constitution behind it. Many Indigenous Australians do not support this.


PERMANENT

Putting a Voice in the Constitution means it’s permanent. We will be stuck with negative consequences


The content of this argument (which can be viewed at aec.gov.au/referendums/pamphlet.htm) was authorised by a majority of those members of Parliament who voted against the proposed law and desired to forward such a case. This text has been published without amendment by the Electoral Commissioner


******


The official Yes campaign pamphlet from the majority of the parliamentary assenters titled “The case for voting Yescan be read in full and downloaded at:

https://www.aec.gov.au/referendums/files/pamphlet/the-case-for-voting-yes.pdf?v=1.0


This affirmative campaign is assisted by YES23.


Examples of how the two very different pamphlets are being initially received in mainstream & social media:


 

 

 


CONCERNING POLLED RESPONSES IN JULY 2023 TO THE PROPOSED NATIONAL REFERENDUM QUESTION


Latest Newspoll conducted on 12-15 July 2023 shows 48 per cent of the 1,570 surveyed voters say they now intend to vote no to the proposal to insert an Aboriginal & Torres Strait Islander Voice into the Australian Constitution.


Among surveyed voters from regional areas 62 per cent opposed the Voice proposal.


The survey breaks down by gender to 47 per cent of all males surveyed and 49 per cent of all females surveyed now oppose the Voice.


By age it appears that 59 per cent of those younger voters surveyed were in favour of inserting an Aboriginal & Torres Strait Islander Voice into the Australian Constitution, while 46 per cent of all older voters surveyed were in favour of the Voice.


NOTE: The 15 July 2023 Newspoll as reported does not breakdown responses by state and, as a referendum affirmative requires a majority of the voting age population in a majority of states, it is possible that at this time there is still a majority in favour of the Voices in four of the seven states & territories.