Friday 27 March 2020

COVID-19 advice to the Morrison Government - details of which it never expected the general public would become aware


"The reduction in doubling time is an indicator that the window for proactive intervention is very small." 

At the current rate of infection Australia could theoretically expect over 6,000 COVID-19 cases by next week and over 50,000 by Easter.
https://www.scribd.com/document/453163428/Group-of-Eight-Expert-Advice-on-Social-Distancing-requested-by-Australian-Government

COVID-19 cases quickly climbing in the NSW Northern Rivers region


COVID-19 infection rose from 7 to 17 cases within a 24 hour period in the NSW Northern Rivers region. Total number of cases now stands at 22 individuals.

Northern NSW Local Health District (NNLHD), media release, 24 March 2020:

10 new cases of COVID-19 have been confirmed within the Northern NSW Local Health District (NNSWLHD) since our last update, bringing the District’s total to 17 cases.
The Public Health Unit is in the process of contacting close contacts, and investigations are underway to determine the sources of these cases.
The confirmed cases to date are spread across the length of the Local Health District, from Clarence right up to the Tweed Valley.
We’d like to thank those who have been cooperating with our Public Health Officers to date, working with our staff and self-isolating correctly at home.
We can’t emphasise enough how important it is for all our community to heed the advice of authorities in efforts to slow the transmission of the virus.
It’s critical to adhere to self-isolation guidelines if you’ve been instructed by health authorities or mandated to quarantine as a result of overseas travel.
For general members of the public, the most important things you can do at the moment are:
  • practising good hygiene – hand washing or sanitising, and coughing/sneezing into a tissue which you then discard
  • staying at home if you’re sick
  • minimising close contact with others by following the social distancing measures.
It’s also important to remember that locations where cases live, work or have visited don’t pose an ongoing risk to members of the public. If you are considered a close contact of a confirmed case, a Health officer will contact you directly.
COVID-19/flu clinics
COVID-19/flu clinics are established at The Tweed Hospital, Lismore Base Hospital and Grafton Base Hospital, open from 10am to 6pm daily.
These clinics are for those most at risk with respiratory symptoms or fever, those returning from overseas or in contact with a COVID-19 case, or people like our health workers. It is vital that these respiratory clinics are not overwhelmed with people who are not in the high risk groups, which could result in delays identifying those most vulnerable. People without symptoms do not need to be tested.
The symptoms of COVID-19 include fever, cough, headache, runny nose, or shortness of breath. Anyone with symptoms should isolate themselves from others.
Identification and isolation of contacts is a critical measure that limits the spread of COVID-19. Compliance with self-isolation by all contacts and returned travellers is essential.
When social distancing actions are combined with good personal hygiene measures the spread of an epidemic through the community can be slowed.
This helps protect the most vulnerable members of the community. It also reduces the impact of the epidemic on essential, life-saving health services by reducing the size of the peak of the epidemic so health services can continue to provide high quality care to all patients.
Everybody must play their part.
For advice and information about COVID-19 visit www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/diseases/Pages/coronavirus.aspx
Northern NSW Local Health District (NNLHD), media release, excerpt, 26 March 2020:

As at 8pm Wednesday 25 March there were five new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in residents of the Northern NSW Local Health District. This brings the District’s total to 22.
The new cases are:
  • Case 18 – currently not residing in Northern NSW LHD, in home isolation
  • Case 19 – in home isolation after returning from overseas
  • Case 20 – in home isolation after returning from overseas
  • Case 21 – in home isolation, source currently being investigated
  • Case 22 – in home isolation, source currently being investigated
The Public Health Unit is following up close contacts of cases who are located within NNSWLHD, who are being asked to self-isolate for 14 days from last contact with the confirmed case.
They will be contacted daily to check that they are well and anyone who develops COVID-19 symptoms will be tested for the virus.
If you are considered a close contact of a confirmed case, a Health officer will contact you directly.
 The cases for NNSWLHD include:
  • 15 overseas acquired cases
  • 2 contacts of a confirmed case/ or in a known cluster
  • 2 contact not identified
  • 3 under investigation – source unknown
Of these previous 17 cases, 14 are currently in self-isolation at home and two are in hospital. One person is considered to have recovered.

Thursday 26 March 2020

Pubs are closing all over the Clarence Valley as pandemic containment measures come into effect


Grafton Hotel

The Daily Examiner, 24 March 2020:

Fitzroy Street was filled with the sweet sounds of bagpipes at noon yesterday as Grafton Hotel closed its doors indefinitely. 

Steve Smith received a call from his wife late last night following Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s announcement that several businesses, including licensed pubs and clubs, would close in a bid to prevent the further spread of COVID-19. 

Grafton Hotel regular and piper Peter Lougher marked the occasion with a rendition of Auld Lang Syne on Fitzroy St at noon, surrounded by staff and regular patrons. 

Mr Smith said the ­shutdown, which could be in place for as long as six months but will be reviewed monthly, was a “kick in the guts” for many people who would no doubt feel the long term impacts of the ­closure...

NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian stresses that in ramping up pandemic compliance measures harsh penalties will apply to persons who disobey instructions to self-isolate


ABCNews, 24 March 2020:

Good morning, everybody. NSW is at a critical stage in relation to the virus. We need to make sure the spread stops. We need to make sure everybody who's in self-isolation stays in self-isolation.

We are ramping up our compliance. We're making sure that people are followed up. If they're supposed to be in self-isolation and they're not, there are harsh penalties and we'll enforce that.

We have to take this seriously.

And if NSW citizens follow the health advice, which is if you're self-isolating, stay in self-isolation, that includes contacts, direct contacts of people who have been diagnosed with the virus. If you are under those instructions, please, please follow those instructions. Do not go out into the community.

The quicker we stop the spread, the more handle, the more control we'll have over this virus.

And as the Chief Medical Officer will update the community this morning, we have had an increase — a substantial increase — in the number of cases again overnight. I don't want to see that number going up as rapidly.

We have to contain the spread, and this is exactly the critical time in NSW for that to occur.

I also want to thank the NSW Police Force for their contribution in relation to containing the spread, and making sure people are complying.

We know it's a tough time for many in the community, and my heart breaks for those businesses that had to shut their doors. My heart breaks for people who don't have a job anymore.

But please be assured that all governments are working hard to provide support to help all of us get through the next few months. It will be difficult.

I also want to thank our school communities. For many people, they had to change what they were doing, or think about what they were doing, and I want to thank our teachers and I want to thank our parents and school communities for the way in which they've responded to the Government's direction yesterday.

This is a difficult time for us, but I'm confident NSW will control as much as we can the spread of this virus, so long as everybody steps up and does what they need to do.

But we are at a critical stage, and I can't emphasise that enough.

Reporter: Premier, do you accept that it is unacceptable, the level of confusion that you've caused over schools?

Premier: Look, our direction in schools is very clear. I'll ask the Minister for Education to also discuss how school communities are adapting. Schools stay open. If you need to send your child to school, schools stay open.

However, we are recommending at this time that parents keep their children at home. And I said that yesterday, and I say that again today.

We appreciate, we appreciate what a challenging time this is for everybody, but we know for practical reasons a third of parents were keeping their kids at home last week. Yesterday, that number went up substantially, even before the messaging around what we were recommending.

And we also appreciate - and let me be frank, based on health advice, we don't know what the next five or six weeks will look like.

We are entering a period where our schools are about to go into school holidays, and it's appropriate for us to make sure we get the home learning up and ready.

This has been a good chance for us, an opportunity for us, to make sure that whether it's through web-based tools or whether it's through home learning, that we have the systems in place to support our children, to support our students, given what we might face into the future.

Good government means prudent planning, it means making sure you have a no-regrets policy. And I have a no-regrets policy. I'm incredibly pleased with the decisions we've taken to date. I don't regret any of them because I believe they're in the best interests of our citizens, and I continue to make decisions based on the best interests of our citizens, because we are in uncertain times.

I want to look back and think that every time we made a decision it was the right one for our people. And I don't care what criticism I get. Throw it at me, because I'm doing it because I believe it's in the best interests of the citizens of NSW.

We are a different state to the rest of Australia. We have the most people returned from overseas. We have the highest number of cases. We have the highest concentration. But to give you assurance, we also have the highest rates of testing, and that's what's giving me comfort.

Reporter: Is there something that's prompted this new warning from the two of you today about self-isolation?

Premier: Yes, because if you look around the world, if you see how the virus is getting out of control around the world, if you see the huge escalation in deaths, many countries did not control the spread at this stage of the virus. Right?

We can tell from our numbers — and they're going up quite significantly every day — but many countries did not take some of the actions this early on in the process in order to control the spread.

I don't want to be another example of a jurisdiction that didn't do what it needed to do at the right time. And I've got an outstanding chief medical officer, and her advice means everything to me. But so does my ability to make decisions for my citizens.

Again, I don't care what criticism I get, I will do what's right for our people.

Reporter: Can we just get clarification on the school issue? Is it a recommendation or a directive? I got a note from our school principal saying, "Do not send your children to school unless you, as in parents, are in emergency services and essential service"?

Premier: We've said schools are open. Schools are open and a safe place.

We know that for some families, they have no option to keep their children at home during this time. I appreciate that, but schools are a safe place.

And they're even safer when there's less children there, for the teachers, right?

So, we know that the decision we've taken is the best one for NSW, for practical reasons. We knew already the level of concern in the community was there, because at least a third of parents...

Reporter: Premier, did you hear his question? He said his principal said not to turn up at school unless they're [in] emergency...

Premier: I will ask the Minister for Education to talk about [that]... certainly the communication I've seen has been very clear. And I know both the secretary and the minister have met with all our stakeholder communities yesterday.

Reporter: Do you accept how ridiculously conflicting it is for a parent to get a note that says, "You can only send your child to school if you're an emergency services essential worker", when you're standing up here, saying, "That's not the case"?

NSW Education Minister Sarah Mitchell: The message is clear. School is open for those who need to attend.

We have said to our school principals, you need to communicate to your school families, parent communities and carers about what they need to do.

Wednesday 25 March 2020

Because the number of graphs are proliferating in mainstream and social media, here are two official Australian Government graphs


Because the number of graphs are proliferating in mainstream and social media, here are two official Australian Government graphs.


This graph shows the number of confirmed cases by notification date. Interpret the most recently reported new cases shown in the graph with caution as there can be delays in reporting.

Age breakdown as of 24 March 2020.

As of 24 March 2019 there were 2,136 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Australia and 8 have died from this novel viral infection. More than 143,000 COVID-19 tests had been conducted across Australia, according to the Australian Dept. of Health.