So what exactly happened at Kirribilli House on Election Night 21 May 2022?

 

We may never know the full story of the night it was confirmed that Scott John Morrison had come close to destroying the Liberal Party of Australia, but here is a sanitized version of how events unfolded…….

Weekend Australian, 11 June 2022, p.6, excerpt:

No Liberal strategists anticipated the Coalition’s seat total to plunge from 76 to 58.

“I wasn’t expecting us to win but wasn’t expecting our seat count to be so low,” a senior campaign source said.

The Liberal Party’s final polling in the 20 marginal seats it was tracking nightly was accurate – just 0.8 per cent out from the two-party-preferred result.

That final tracking poll was 72 hours from the close of polls.

Misplaced confidence

Undeterred, Morrison remained “relentlessly disciplined in his confidence” and upbeat in the final days of the campaign. At that point, there were high hopes at senior levels of the Liberal team that the 5 per cent of undecided voters could fall their way.

Morrison’s confidence was also attributed to how Labor’s primary vote had plummeted in the final weeks of the campaign, according to Crosby Textor research. Morrison’s view was understood to be that Labor couldn’t form majority government with a primary vote that had crashed so low.

At midday on election day, Finkelstein was downcast about their chance of success, confiding to his colleagues that Anthony Albanese would win. “He thinks the undecided started to fall the way of change on Thursday night and last night,” a source said at the time.

Federal Liberal campaign director Andrew Hirst was also pessimistic and was bracing for a loss, although not as brutal as the scenario that eventuated.

The Prime Minister, however, dismissed Finkelstein’s dire prediction. “Yaron is just tired, he’s exhausted after a long campaign,” Morrison said early in the afternoon to a close confidant.

Those close to Morrison say he was “quietly confident” that he could win minority government; that he could pull off a miracle once again.

On election night, Sky News host Paul Murray was reporting from the Liberal function at the Sofitel hotel in Sydney’s CBD.

He recalls that at the start of the night there was no sense of the scale of the impending defeat.

“There are times when you’re going to lose so everyone walks in going ‘how bad is this going to be’,” he said.

But that wasn’t the mood in the room on election night. Instead there was an initial sense of hope.

“The whole scenario is they weren’t supposed to win last time,” Murray said. “They all had muscle memory of winning against the trend.

“On election night, everyone saw Labor’s vote was down so they assumed this was happening again. Even in the second hour when it started going against the Libs, they were very much of the view that pre-poll hasn’t been counted yet.

“Then there was the final realisation that the train is not going to arrive.” At Kirribilli House, Morrison remained hopeful and upbeat as he bundled into his study with his closest friends, advisers and strategists including David Gazard, ­Andrew Carswell, Finkelstein, Adrian Harrington and John Kunkel. Morrison sat at his desk, ­examining the raw numbers as they were coming in from the Australian Electoral Commission.

Outside, Jenny Morrison, ever-positive and smiling, entertained about 20 of the couple’s friends from the Shire.

The first hour looked to be a repeat of 2019, with early polling showing Labor’s depressed primary vote.

Then there was a view in the room, about 7.30 to 8pm, that there wouldn’t be a definitive result that night.

Nail in the coffin

But then it changed.

“The pre-poll voting, which we would have thought favoured us, it just didn’t,” said one source from the room.

“When those results started being dropped, it cemented the trend. And then it changed really quickly.” Morrison left the room to take a long call from Frydenberg, who a source said was “in a pretty bad way”.

During the half-hour that he was out of the room, the size of the “teal” problem crystallised.

Morrison walked back in and said: “How is it looking?” “It’s not good,” an adviser said.

“I know it’s not good,” Morrison replied.

“It’s got worse,” a friend replied.

Then the Mackellar numbers started flowing in. “Jason (Falinski) is in trouble,” Morrison said.

A source in the room said that “when Jason’s results became clear, that’s when hope was abandoned”.

Finkelstein was the one who called it, according to those present. “We will be conceding tonight,” he said….

Morrison may have resigned as leader of the federal parliamentary Liberal Party, but this is not necessarily a signal that he will not fight to keep a degree of influence within the party in the hope of rebuilding his power base.

Currently he appears to be putting forward ideas on how to rebuild the Coalition and rebrand the Liberal Party:

In the wake of the election, Morrison has expressed an idea to some of his confidants about a possible strategy to deal with the independents in future elections: establish the Liberal National Party brand Australia-wide as the main conservative political movement.

Instead of the Nationals being the Coalition partner, he has suggested setting up a new progressive Liberal movement as the Coalition partner. It could run a different brand in the inner-city seats.

He has also begun accepting invitations to events where his former leadership status is recognised and where he can begin post-election networking.

COVID-19 & Influenza State of Play 2022: NSW on 10 June 2022 and over the 4 weeks before that at state and local government level

 

SARS-CoV-2 & VARIANTS/COVID-19

According to the World Health Organisation, currently the only SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern (VOC) is Omicron B.1.1.529. This designation includes BA.1, BA.2, BA.3, BA.4, BA.5 and descendent lineages. It also includes BA.1/BA.2 circulating recombinant forms such as XE.

As of Monday 23 May 2022, the national Communicable Diseases Genomics Network (CDGN) VoC Working Group has downgraded B.1.617.2 (Delta) to a Variant of Interest. No Delta sequences having been identified from samples collected in the 12 weeks to 23 May. Previously on 31 January 2022 Alpha, Beta and Gamma variants were de-escalated from VoCs. The only current Variant of Concern within Australia is Omicron B.1.1.529 and sub-lineages BA.

By 6 June 2022 CDGN - Aus Trakka had reported that public health laboratories had identified 10,066 B.1.1.529 genetic sequences in the New South Wales.

According to NSW Health, as at 4pm on 10 June 2022 there were 85,665 active confirmed COVID-19 cases across the state, with 1,219 hospitalised of which 41 were in intensive care including 14 requiring ventilation. In the 24 hours up to 4pm on 10 June 24 people had died as a result of COVID-19 infection.

In the last four weeks to 4pm 10 June 2022 NSW Health has recorded 92,994 confirmed cases of COVID-19 across the state. However this is an incomplete record of the number of person who actually contracted COVID-19 as NSW Health only records the results of Polymerase Chain Reaction tests (PCR) and omits results of Rapid Antigen tests (RAT).

Blacktown Local Government Area recorded 5,074 confirmed cases and Central Coast Local Government Area 4,157 confirmed cases in those 4 weeks.

The following local government areas (LGAs) recorded over 2,000 and under 4,000 confirmed COVID-19 during this period:

Bayside, Campbelltown, Canterbury-Bankstown, Central Coast, Cumberland, Georges River, Inner West, Ku-ring-gai, Lake Macquarie, Liverpool, Northern Beaches, Parramatta, Penrith, Ryde, Sutherland Shire, Sydney, The Hills Shire and Wollongong.

Those LGAs which recorded confirmed COVID-19 cases numbering between 1,000 but below 2,000 during this period were:

Camden, Canada Bay, Dubbo Regional, Hornsby, Maitland, Newcastle, Queanbeyan-Palerang Regional, Randwick and Shoalhaven.

When it comes to the 7 local government areas comprising the NSW Northern Rivers region, in the four weeks to 10 June 2022 the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases recorded were:

Tweed Shire – 512 cases

Kyogle Shire – 19 cases

Lismore City – 208 cases

Byron Shire – 111 cases

Ballina Shire – 279 cases

Richmond Valley – 148 cases

Clarence Valley – 124 cases.

TOTAL 1,401

Remembering of course that all these figures are a significant under reporting by NSW Health because the Perrottet Coalition Government ceased to care about accurate public health recording by the last quarter of 2021.

For North Coast Voices readers who live in NSW LGAs I have not mentioned, a full list is at:

https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/covid-19/Pages/stats-local.aspx.

INFLUENZA

According to the Australian Dept. Of Health, in the year to 5 June 2022, there have been 87,989 notifications of laboratory-confirmed influenza. Some 47,860 of these notifications had a diagnosis date in the last two weeks up to 5 June.

These numbers represents a national notification rate of 341.8 per 100,000 population.

There have been 27 influenza-associated deaths notified to the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System (NNDSS).

Since commencement of seasonal surveillance in April 2022, there have been 733 hospital admissions due to influenza reported across sentinel hospitals sites, of which 6.1% (est. 45 people) were admitted directly to an Intensive Care Unit.

People aged 5–19 years and children aged younger than 5 years have the highest influenza notification rates.

In the year to first week of June 2022 NSW Health has recorded est. 44,080 Influenza cases in New South Wales.

From 1 January to 31 May 2022 there were only 635 Influenza cases officially recorded in the NSW Northern Rivers region.

Cartoons of the Week

 

David Rowe

John Shakespeare

Cathy Wilcox

David Pope

NSW Upper House report on health & hospital services in regional, rural and remote areas of the state documents instances of lack of access to specialist services, understaffing, poor treatment outcomes, inadequate ambulance presence, long wait times, high out-of-pocket expenses and discrimination

 

It is hardly a secret that the NSW public health & hospital system has been under stress for much of the last two years and remains under stress in 2022.

Nor is it a secret that the ongoing global Covid-19 pandemic and seasonal respiratory disease have played a big part in this organizational stress.

However, they are not the only contributing factors and in rural, regional and remote areas health services stress has been building for decades.

There is a reported absence of a GP or chronic shortage of health professionals in: Bonalbo, Eurobodalla, Gunnedah, Deniliquin, Edward River, Manning Valley, Port Stephens, Temora, Glen Innes, Gulgong, Wee Waa, Wollondilly, Mid-Western Regional Council, Coleambally, Warren Shire Council, Broken Hill, Wentworth, Merriwa, Tenterfield, Parkes, Coonamble, Gwydir, Bourke, Hay and Leeton, with another 41 Western and Far West NSW towns identified as being at risk of not having a practicing General Practitioner within the next 10 years.

Often there is only one doctor on duty at smaller regional, rural or remote hospitals and 27 per cent of all adverse events (clinical incidents or mishaps) occurred in rural and remote health services.

In addition, the NSW Ambulance service is frequently overwhelmed by a combination of low staff numbers on a given day, vehicles tied up by being 'ramped' at over stretched hospitals and increased travel times.

A NSW Upper House inquiry was established on 16 September 2020 to inquire into and report on health outcomes and access to health and hospital services in rural, regional and remote New South Wales.

It received 720 submissions.

The following are extracts from the Inquiry report tabled in the NSW Parliament on 5 May 2022.

NSW LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL, PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE NO. 2, REPORT 57, May 2022, “Health outcomes and access to health and hospital services in rural, regional and remote New South Wales”

Committee comment

3.126 As already outlined in this report, the inquiry has heard evidence from a number of witnesses providing first-hand examples of inadequate health services and care in rural, regional and remote New South Wales. There is no doubt that doctor and clinician workforce issues are a key, if not the key to explaining many of these experiences. The committee acknowledges and appreciates the many doctors and clinicians who gave up their time and shared their expertise and personal experiences to inform the inquiry of the issues they face in rural and remote settings, including their ideas about ways to improve the current situation. These accounts provided detailed and thoughtful evidence as to both the challenges and opportunities to address them.

3.127 It is clear to the committee that the availability of doctors and clinicians in rural and remote locations is short, in some cases critically short of where it needs to be. While Chapter 2 detailed the impact this shortage is having on members of the community, the committee has also heard doctors and clinicians describe the unsustainable working conditions, particularly with respect to hours of work arising from insufficient supply of doctors and clinicians to cover the available work demands. The committee is concerned about doctor and clinician shortages and maldistribution in rural and remote settings, and the risks it poses to the health of community members, doctors and clinicians alike.

3.128 Consequently, the committee finds that rural, regional and remote medical staff are significantly under resourced when compared with their metropolitan counterparts, exacerbating health inequities…..

3.130 Indeed, there can be little doubt that the doctor workforce challenge is complicated and compounded by the division of responsibilities between Commonwealth and State. In fact, both levels of government acknowledged the Commonwealth/State divide as one of the most challenging aspects of health care delivery. But the existence of these challenges is not new. The committee is of the view that efforts to overcome them have been inadequate to date, ultimately failing to achieve the necessary structural reform. Consequently, the committee finds that the Commonwealth/State divide in terms of the provision of health funding has led to both duplication and gaps in service delivery.

3.131 The committee therefore recommends that the NSW Government urgently engage with the Australian Government to establish clear governance arrangements and a strategic plan to deliver on the reforms recommended below to improve doctor workforce issues. This should occur at the ministerial level to ensure the necessary political and policy momentum is maintained. We also believe that with a renewed commitment to work together to break down barriers and achieve health reform, progress can be made on those initiatives that both levels of government have identified as meritorious, but where progress has been slow or non-existent.

3.132 Despite the role played by the Australian Government, the committee also believes that, given the interdependency between primary health and hospital care, there is a need for the NSW Government to investigate ways to support the growth and development primary health sector in rural, regional and remote areas and support the sector’s critical role in addressing the social determinants of health and reducing avoidable hospitalisations for the citizens of New South Wales. [my yellow highlighting]

The report made 44 specific recommendations which are outlined on pages xv to xxii of the report found at:

https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/lcdocs/inquiries/2615/Report%20no%2057%20-%20PC%202%20-%20Health%20outcomes%20and%20access%20to%20services.pdf

Formal response from the Perrottet Government in not due until November 2022.

Australia's Reserve Bank signals that inflation is expected to increase beyond the 5.1% rise recorded for the twelve months to March Quarter 2022 - 5 weeks after initially raising its cash rate target the Bank raised the rate for a second time on 7 June 2022

 

On 3 May 2022 the Reserve Bank announced that due to a stronger than expected rise in the inflation rate, measures were being undertaken to reduce inflationary pressure. 

Put simply, monetary policy indicated a need to drive the current inflation rate from 5.1% down to somewhere between 2-3% to keep basic cost of living increases within manageable limits and the national economy stable.

In order to begin this process the Board decided to increase the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 35 basis points. It also increased the interest rate on Exchange Settlement balances from zero percent to 25 basis points.

This translated into a cash rate of 0.34% and an exchange settlement balance interest rate of 0.25%.

On 7 May the Reserve Bank moved again - raising the cash rate to 0.85% and the exchange settlement balance interest rate to 0.75%.

If inflation continues to rise in the second half of this year it is possible that the Reserve Bank will increase the cash rate target to est. 1.25% by the end of December 2022. There is some speculation in business/financial media that the cash rate target might go as high as 2.5% sometime in 2023 before it begins to fall.

Commercial banks will likely be reassessing their lending rates in the coming weeks. The four big banks - Westpac, CBA, ANZ and NAB - have already responded with variable home loans increasing by 0.5%. That increase comes into effect from 17 June (CBA, ANZ, NAB) and 21 June 2022 (Westpac). 

By way of example, this increase is likely to add around $115 per month on a $450,000 home loan where the homeowner is making a scheduled principal and interest payment. 

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Reserve Bank of Australia

Media Release

Statement by Philip Lowe, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision

Number 2022-14

Date 7 June 2022

At its meeting today, the Board decided to increase the cash rate target by 50 basis points to 85 basis points. It also increased the interest rate on Exchange Settlement balances by 50 basis points to 75 basis points.

Inflation in Australia has increased significantly. While inflation is lower than in most other advanced economies, it is higher than earlier expected. Global factors, including COVID-related disruptions to supply chains and the war in Ukraine, account for much of this increase in inflation. But domestic factors are playing a role too, with capacity constraints in some sectors and the tight labour market contributing to the upward pressure on prices. The floods earlier this year have also affected some prices.

Inflation is expected to increase further, but then decline back towards the 2–3 per cent range next year. Higher prices for electricity and gas and recent increases in petrol prices mean that, in the near term, inflation is likely to be higher than was expected a month ago. As the global supply-side problems are resolved and commodity prices stabilise, even if at a high level, inflation is expected to moderate. Today's increase in interest rates will assist with the return of inflation to target over time.

The Australian economy is resilient, growing by 0.8 per cent in the March quarter and 3.3 per cent over the year. Household and business balance sheets are generally in good shape, an upswing in business investment is underway and there is a large pipeline of construction work to be completed. Macroeconomic policy settings are supportive of growth and national income is being boosted by higher commodity prices. The terms of trade are at a record high.

The labour market is also strong. Employment has grown significantly and the unemployment rate is 3.9 per cent, which is the lowest rate in almost 50 years. Job vacancies and job ads are at high levels and a further decline in unemployment and underemployment is expected. The Bank's business liaison program continues to point to a lift in wages growth from the low rates of recent years as firms compete for staff in a tight labour market.

One source of uncertainty about the economic outlook is how household spending evolves, given the increasing pressure on Australian households' budgets from higher inflation. Interest rates are also increasing. Housing prices have declined in some markets over recent months but remain more than 25 per cent higher than prior to the pandemic, supporting household wealth and spending. The household saving rate also remains higher than it was before the pandemic and many households have built up large financial buffers. While the central scenario is for strong household consumption growth this year, the Board will be paying close attention to these various influences on consumption as it assesses the appropriate setting of monetary policy.

The Board will also be paying close attention to the global outlook, which remains clouded by the war in Ukraine and its effect on the prices for energy and agricultural commodities. Real household incomes are under pressure in many economies and financial conditions are tightening, as central banks withdraw monetary policy support in response to broad-based inflation. There are also ongoing uncertainties related to COVID, especially in China.

Today's increase in interest rates by the Board is a further step in the withdrawal of the extraordinary monetary support that was put in place to help the Australian economy during the pandemic. The resilience of the economy and the higher inflation mean that this extraordinary support is no longer needed. Given the current inflation pressures in the economy, and the still very low level of interest rates, the Board decided to move by 50 basis points today. The Board expects to take further steps in the process of normalising monetary conditions in Australia over the months ahead. The size and timing of future interest rate increases will be guided by the incoming data and the Board's assessment of the outlook for inflation and the labour market. The Board is committed to doing what is necessary to ensure that inflation in Australia returns to target over time. [my yellow highlighting]

North Coast Voices will not be posting again until Friday 10 June 2022

 

Apologies to regular readers and browsers.

New Minister for Government Services Bill Shorten announces user service audit of "myGov" website and a robodebt royal commission

The Sydney Morning Herald, 4 June 2022:

Labor wants to end the “digital workhouse” approach to people trying to get government payments, with new minister Bill Shorten planning to turn using myGov from an often-frustrating experience into a seamless one.

Shorten is taking briefings on his new government services portfolio but wants to get moving immediately on a user service audit of myGov, the online entry portal into services such as Centrelink, Medicare and the Australian Taxation Office.

His ultimate aim is to make it “a much more seamless exercise” that doesn’t force people to spend hours of their own time applying for payments or updating details, the new minister said in an exclusive interview.

“They’ve created digital workhouses, basically. You know, workhouses were a 19th century place where the kind-hearted burghers of Victorian England and Australia said, ‘Well, if we’ve got to pay you for three meals a day, you can go and work in a workhouse,’” he said.

“And I think that we’ve used, in some cases, digital technology to create two classes of Australians.

“We haven’t privatised the service. We just privatise your time. You spend hours on it. I’m amazed there’s not more rage out there.”…..

Services Australia is effectively the delivery shop for a huge range of other portfolio areas, administering payments for everything from childcare subsidies and Medicare rebates to disaster relief and paid parental leave, along with the more traditional welfare payments such as pensions and JobSeeker…..

However, it has come under pressure in recent years for increasingly forcing people online to make those claims, with nearly 30 Centrelink or Services Australia shopfronts closing around the country, leaving 318 dedicated outlets. Shorten has previously said people seeking support and services must have the option to speak with real people, not merely be pushed onto a website or sit in an automated phone queue.

Another top priority for Shorten in his new role is launching a royal commission into robodebt as soon as possible…... 

As new Minister for the National Disability Insurance Scheme Bill Shorten is looking to reform those elements of the scheme which are shortchanging people with disabilities

Brisbane Times, 3 June 2022:

Labor has vowed to crack down on providers overcharging for services claimed on the National Disability Insurance Scheme and to clear the backlog of thousands of legal appeals for funding, while delivering COVID-19 booster shots to people with disabilities.

NDIS Minister Bill Shorten said he was disturbed by the "twin pricing system" for services to people with disabilities and says restoring trust between scheme participants and senior bureaucrats was vital.

The National Disability Insurance Agency has come under fire for cutting the funding packages of disabled people as it faces rising costs. Shorten said it was an obscenity that there were 5000 appeals on NDIS packages before the Administrative Appeals Tribunal…..

"Under the last regime, we're spending more money on the process of fighting people for amounts which are less than the amount we're spending in the fight. How did we end up in that parallel universe?"

The number of appeals on NDIA decisions that make it to the AAT has more than doubled over the past year and legal costs are running at tens of millions of dollars.

The NDIS will cost almost $36 billion in 2022-23 and costs are forecast to keep increasing.

Shorten acknowledged the need to tackle the pricing of services charged to NDIS packages, saying it seemed to be a "black box" where providers come up with fees but "you don't know the magic of how they're coming to it".

"I'm disturbed at the twin-rate system or the dual system where if you don't have a package, you pay X dollars, if you do have an NDIS package, you get charged X plus $100. The scheme can't cross-subsidise everyone else," he said.

Making sure people with disabilities - both NDIS participants and those on disability support pensions - have quick access to their third and fourth COVID boosters is also a priority for the new minister…..

Shorten's longer-term goals include working with the states to improve support in schools, community mental health services, housing and bed block in hospitals as a way of tamping down NDIS costs.

But he said he was wary of any approach to the rising NDIS costs that suggested people with disabilities were the problem.

"I think there's been a level of incompetence and wastage. I think there's a breakdown in trust," Shorten said.