Under reporting of COVID-19 cases in New South Wales is now a sick joke being played on the population

As of 4pm on Friday, 17 June 2022, Australia-wide there were est. 208,173 active cases of COVID-19 recorded by the Australian Government Dept. Of Health.

Of these, 30,302 confirmed cases had been reported in the prior 24 hours.

A total of 2,817 cases were currently hospitalised on 17 June, with 93 in intensive care units and of these 30 people requiring ventilation.

In the 24 hours to 4pm on 17 June 51 people had died as a result of contracting COVID19. As government agencies do not update on weekends it is noted that covidlive.com.au reported a further 64 deaths on Saturday 18 June.

In New South Wales up 4pm on Friday 14 June 2022 there were 85,386 active cases of COVID-19 and in the 24 hours up to 4pm 17 June there were 8,119 newly confirmed COVID-19 cases.

A total of 1,344 cases were currently hospitalised on 17 June, with 45 in intensive care units and of these 18 requiring ventilation.

In the 24 hours to 4pm on Friday, 17 June 25 people had died as a result of contracting COVID-19.

Since the SARS-CoV-2/Covid-19 pandemic first entered Australia and NSW in late January 2020, NSW Health has recorded a total 2,704,725 confirmed cases of COVID-19 – a conservative figure given the ongoing under reporting of infection numbers – and 3,387 deaths.

The seven local government areas in the NSW Northern Rivers region recorded the following newly confirmed COVID-19 case numbers as at 4pm on Friday, 17 June 2022:

Tweed Shire – details not available

Ballina Shire – details not available

Byron Shire – details not available

Lismore City – details not available

Richmond Valley – details not available

Clarence Valley – details not available

Kyogle Shire – details not available

TOTAL 242 cases – 77 confirmed as positive by Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) tests & 165 confirmed positive by Rapid Antigen Tests (RATs).

In the four weeks to 17 June 2022 the seven local government areas in the NSW Northern Rivers region recorded the following number of confirmed COVID-19 cases:

Tweed Shire – 443 cases confirmed by PCR tests. All cases confirmed by RATs excluded from the count;

Ballina Shire – 250 cases confirmed by PCR tests. All cases confirmed by RATs excluded from the count;

Byron Shire – 104 cases confirmed by PCR tests. All cases confirmed by RATs excluded from the count;

Lismore City – 167 cases confirmed by PCR tests. All cases confirmed by RATs excluded from the count;

Richmond Valley – 126 cases confirmed by PCR tests. All cases confirmed by RATs excluded from the count;

Clarence Valley – 123 cases confirmed by PCR tests. All cases confirmed by RATs excluded from the count;

Kyogle Shire – 16 cases confirmed by PCR tests. All cases confirmed by RATs excluded from the count.

TOTAL 1,229 cases – this figure includes only cases confirmed as positive by PCR tests and deliberately excludes all positive RAT testing.

Note: Under reporting of COVID-19 infection in the Northern Rivers region over the four week period ending 17 June 2022 is possibly in the vicinity of more than 1,229 persons – bringing the estimated total number to anywhere between 2,458 to 3,687 infected people spread out over the 7 local government areas.

COVID-19 & Influenza State of Play 2022: NSW on 10 June 2022 and over the 4 weeks before that at state and local government level

 

SARS-CoV-2 & VARIANTS/COVID-19

According to the World Health Organisation, currently the only SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern (VOC) is Omicron B.1.1.529. This designation includes BA.1, BA.2, BA.3, BA.4, BA.5 and descendent lineages. It also includes BA.1/BA.2 circulating recombinant forms such as XE.

As of Monday 23 May 2022, the national Communicable Diseases Genomics Network (CDGN) VoC Working Group has downgraded B.1.617.2 (Delta) to a Variant of Interest. No Delta sequences having been identified from samples collected in the 12 weeks to 23 May. Previously on 31 January 2022 Alpha, Beta and Gamma variants were de-escalated from VoCs. The only current Variant of Concern within Australia is Omicron B.1.1.529 and sub-lineages BA.

By 6 June 2022 CDGN - Aus Trakka had reported that public health laboratories had identified 10,066 B.1.1.529 genetic sequences in the New South Wales.

According to NSW Health, as at 4pm on 10 June 2022 there were 85,665 active confirmed COVID-19 cases across the state, with 1,219 hospitalised of which 41 were in intensive care including 14 requiring ventilation. In the 24 hours up to 4pm on 10 June 24 people had died as a result of COVID-19 infection.

In the last four weeks to 4pm 10 June 2022 NSW Health has recorded 92,994 confirmed cases of COVID-19 across the state. However this is an incomplete record of the number of person who actually contracted COVID-19 as NSW Health only records the results of Polymerase Chain Reaction tests (PCR) and omits results of Rapid Antigen tests (RAT).

Blacktown Local Government Area recorded 5,074 confirmed cases and Central Coast Local Government Area 4,157 confirmed cases in those 4 weeks.

The following local government areas (LGAs) recorded over 2,000 and under 4,000 confirmed COVID-19 during this period:

Bayside, Campbelltown, Canterbury-Bankstown, Central Coast, Cumberland, Georges River, Inner West, Ku-ring-gai, Lake Macquarie, Liverpool, Northern Beaches, Parramatta, Penrith, Ryde, Sutherland Shire, Sydney, The Hills Shire and Wollongong.

Those LGAs which recorded confirmed COVID-19 cases numbering between 1,000 but below 2,000 during this period were:

Camden, Canada Bay, Dubbo Regional, Hornsby, Maitland, Newcastle, Queanbeyan-Palerang Regional, Randwick and Shoalhaven.

When it comes to the 7 local government areas comprising the NSW Northern Rivers region, in the four weeks to 10 June 2022 the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases recorded were:

Tweed Shire – 512 cases

Kyogle Shire – 19 cases

Lismore City – 208 cases

Byron Shire – 111 cases

Ballina Shire – 279 cases

Richmond Valley – 148 cases

Clarence Valley – 124 cases.

TOTAL 1,401

Remembering of course that all these figures are a significant under reporting by NSW Health because the Perrottet Coalition Government ceased to care about accurate public health recording by the last quarter of 2021.

For North Coast Voices readers who live in NSW LGAs I have not mentioned, a full list is at:

https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/covid-19/Pages/stats-local.aspx.

INFLUENZA

According to the Australian Dept. Of Health, in the year to 5 June 2022, there have been 87,989 notifications of laboratory-confirmed influenza. Some 47,860 of these notifications had a diagnosis date in the last two weeks up to 5 June.

These numbers represents a national notification rate of 341.8 per 100,000 population.

There have been 27 influenza-associated deaths notified to the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System (NNDSS).

Since commencement of seasonal surveillance in April 2022, there have been 733 hospital admissions due to influenza reported across sentinel hospitals sites, of which 6.1% (est. 45 people) were admitted directly to an Intensive Care Unit.

People aged 5–19 years and children aged younger than 5 years have the highest influenza notification rates.

In the year to first week of June 2022 NSW Health has recorded est. 44,080 Influenza cases in New South Wales.

From 1 January to 31 May 2022 there were only 635 Influenza cases officially recorded in the NSW Northern Rivers region.

Last Newspoll of the 2022 federal election campaign

The Australian, Newspoll, published evening of 20 May2022
Click on image to enlarge

Primary Vote Percentages

Labor - 36 (down 2)

Coalition - 35 (no change)

Greens - 12 ( up 1) 

One Nation - 5 (down 1)

United Australia Party - 3 (no change)

Others - 8 (no change)

Two Party Preferred Percentages 

Labor - 53 (down 1)

Coalition - 47 (up 1) 

If the election had been held on 20 May 2022 then it is likely Labor would have won government with est. 80 seats to the Coalition's est. 65 seats.

However, this prediction is based on 2019 preference flows and the list of independent & minor party candidates was not as long in that federal general election nor the public appetite seemingly so strong for unaligned candidates.

It's far too early to count Australia's 2022 federal election chickens

Since 13 February 2022 there have been 11 voter intention surveys published by the four major political survey companies – Newspoll, Ipsos, Resolve and Morgan Research.

None of these 11 surveys predicts that the Morrison Government will get re-elected in 2022.

However, investing in the idea that surveys indicate exactly what est.17,228,900 voters will decide as their pencils hover over ballot papers is dangerous for all concerned.

Nothing is a foregone conclusion. Every voter needs to make a well considered choice, because every voter has to live with the consequences of their vote.

On Saturday 18 May 2019 the national electorate went to polling booths all around Australia to elect a federal government.

The Australian, 8 May 2022
Click on image to enlarge

The day before “The Australian” newspaper published a Newspoll voter intention survey result which indicated that there was a 3 percentage point difference between Labor and the Coalition which – given the consistent poll results since 4 February 2018 favouring Labor – was considered by many political pundits to firm up the likelihood that Labor would form government the next day.

That didn’t happen. The Liberal-Nationals Coalition formed government with 77 out of the 151 seats in the House of Representatives, leaving the Labor Party Party holding 68 seats, Independents 3 and The Greens, Centre Alliance & Katter’s Australia Party all holding one seat each.

Right now the nation is just 11 days out from the 21 May 2022 federal election and, since 27 June 2021 consecutive Newspolls have developed a wide gap between Labor and the Coalition similar to the gaps that existed on Newspoll graphs in the lead up to the 2019 election.

Thirteen days out from the 2022 federal election there was an 8 percentage point difference in Labor’s favour in the Newspoll survey published last Sunday.

Expect the difference to tighten as election day gets closer.

Expect the predominately right-wing mainstream media (with a few shining exceptions) to take leave of its collective senses over the next 11 days as it fights to keep Scott Morrison in government.

Australian Federal Election 2022: it seems we live in interesting times.

 

IMAGE: The Australian, 18 April 2022
Click on image to enlarge

Another Newspoll was published by The Australian on 18 April 2022.  

The results were as follows......

Survey of Federal Election Voting Intentions

First Preference:

Labor – 36% (down 1 on10 April poll)

Coalition – 35% (down 1 on10 April poll)

Greens – 12% ( up 2 since10 April poll)

One Nation – 4% (up 1 since 10 April poll)

United Australia Party – 4% (no change since10 April poll)

Others – 9% (down 1 since 10 April poll)

Two Party Preferred:

Labor 53% – (no change since 10 April poll)

Coalition – 47% (no change since 10 April poll)

Better PM:

Scott Morrison – 44% (no change since 10 April poll)

Anthony Albanese – 37% (down 2 since 10 April poll)

Undecided – 19% (up 2 since 10 April poll)

Satisfaction with Leaders Performance:

Scott Morrison – Satisfied 43% (up 1), Dissatisfied 52% (down 2) & Uncommitted est. 5%

Anthony Albanese – Satisfied 37% (down 5), Dissatisfied 51% (up 6) & Uncommitted est. 12%

Net Satisfaction with Leaders Performance:

Scott Morrison – minus 9% (up 3)

Anthony Albanese – minus 14% (down 11)

On the basis of the two party preferred percentage points if an election had been held between 14-17 April 2022 then Labor would have won government, with possibly 80 seats in the House of Representatives to the Coalition’s 65 seats. This is the same outcome predicted by the Newspoll results of 6-9 April, but markedly less favourable to Labor than the Newspoll survey results of  31 March-3 April.

Resolve Strategic-9 Entertainment released the results of a limited voter intention survey on Sunday 17 April 2022, which had primary voting intention coming in at Coalition 35% to Labor 34%. Poll Bludger ran the 2019 Two Party Preferred data against those percentages & the outcome went Labor 52% to Coalition 48%. Which means that if an election had been held between 11-16 April Labor would likely have won with 9 seat lead in the House of Representatives. This was somewhat awkward for those editors, commentators & journalists who had initially been predicting an outright win for Morrison on the basis of that particular survey.

Newspoll results show the Morrison Government losing ground since 27 June 2021 and Labor in positive Two Party Preferred territory across the same period. Enthusiasm for Scott Morrison as “Preferred PM” has been gradually falling since 21 February 2021 but Anthony Albanese has been lagging behind Morrison on this particular indicator in all but one Newspoll during the same period. In itself “Preferred PM” is not a stand alone indicator of success at a federal election and party leaders do go on to win government will less than stellar approval numbers.

However, mainstream media is reporting a record number of “Independent” candidates registering for the coming federal election and, on social media platforms there is some anecdotal evidence of strong support for such candidates and for The Greens. If predictive percentages tighten ahead of election day, this support may translate into more than 6 House of Representative seats going to Independents/minor parties and it is possible that neither of the two major parties will achieve an outright majority at the 21 May federal election. 

Four of these independent candidates have stated a willingness to enter into talks with Scott Morrison if citizens' ballot papers do not deliver him a clear majority - 51.5% of the national vote. These candidates are; Zoe Daniel (Ind Goldstein Vic), Allegra Spender (Ind Wentworth NSW), Sophie Scamps (Ind Mackellar NSW) and Kate Chaney (Ind Curtin WA). 

It seems we are living in interesting times.

Last Newspoll before 2022 federal general election was announced

 

Newspoll published on The Australian on 10 April 2022. Based on YouGov survey of 1,506 respondents conducted between 6 and 9 April.

RESULT

First Preference

Labor – 37% (-1)

Coalition – 36% (0)

Greens – 10% (0)

United Australia Party – 4% (+1)

One Nation – 3% (0)

Others – 10%

Two-Party Preferred 4 February 2018 to 10 April 2022

Click on image to enlarge

Two-Party Preferred 6-9 April 2022

Labor – 53% (-1)

Coalition – 47% (+1)

Based on Anthony Green’s Election Calculator this Two-Party Preferred result would see a 4.4% swing to Labor with 80 seats won (a gain of 11 seats) to Coalition with 65 seats won (a loss of 11 seats) and Minor Parties/Independents with 6 seats won - after factoring in retiring and sophomore MPs.

Preferred PM

Morrison (Coalition) – 44 (+1)

Albanese (Labor) – 39 (-3)

Uncommitted – 17 (+2)

Leaders Performance

Albanese – Approve 42 (-1) Disapprove 45 (+1)

Morrison – Approve 42 (0) Disapprove 54 (0)

Note:

Survey margin of error is ±2.5%

Comparing the Polls

IMAGE: 9 News, 10 April 2022
Click on image to enlarge

COVID-19 Pandemic 2020-2022: State of Play in New South Wales and Northern NSW

According to Professor Raina McIntyre (Global Biosecurity, Head of Biosecurity Program, Kirby Institute UNSW New South Wales) on 2 April 2022, COVID-19 case numbers are bouncing around. Case numbers in New South Wales have increased since a low of 4,916 daily cases on 21 February 2022. “In the past week, they have ranged from 17,000 to more than 25,000 a day”.

“Part of the problem is the lack of testing and the lack of reporting. The message of “live with it” runs counter to the importance of reporting a positive test, if you can afford one. PCR testing remains restricted, so daily case numbers are a substantial underestimate and even the trends may not be accurate.” [my yellow highlighting]

As of 4pm 1 April 2022 there were 20,389 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in New South Wales and a total of 268,761 active COVID-19 cases across the state the majority of which are being self-managed at home.

There were 1,302 COVID-19 cases admitted to hospital as at 4pm 1 April, including 47 people in intensive care, 16 of whom require ventilation.

NSW Health reported the deaths of 13 people with COVID-19 – seven women and six men. Of these, 7 people were aged in their 70s, 5 people were aged in their 80s and 1 person was aged in their 90s.

Included in the day’s total of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases were 520 people in Northern NSW.

There were 14 COVID-19 cases admitted to hospital with 2 in intensive care.

These 520 cases were all 7 local government areas within Northern NSW:

Tweed Shire – 149 cases across postcodes 2483, 2484, 2485,

Lismore City – 82 cases across postcodes 2472, 2480;

Clarence Valley – 79 cases across postcodes 2460, 2462, 2453, 2464, 2466;

Ballina Shire – 75 cases across postcodes

Byron Shire – 73 cases across postcodes 2479, 2481, 2482, 2483,

Richmond Valley – 51 cases across postcodes 2469, 2470, 2471, 2473;

Kyogle Shire – 11 cases across postcode 2474;

TOTAL 520

According to the federal Dept. of Health as of 31 March 2022 there were 229 COVID-19 outbreaks in residential aged care facilities involving 976 residents. 

A full list of these NSW facilities can be found at

https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/2022/04/covid-19-outbreaks-in-australian-residential-aged-care-facilities-1-april-2022_0.pdf

On 10 February 2022, the Australian Government announced changes to the definition of fully vaccinated against COVID-19 so as to include vaccine booster doses required for those 16 years and over. The new term in use is “up to date” vaccination.

Therefore as of 1 April 2022 only 60.2% of people aged 16 years to 90 years and older, 79.5% of children aged 12 to 15 years and 26.9% of children aged 5 to 11 years are considered to be “up to date” (fully vaccinated).

The fact that New South Wales is falling behind recommended vaccination rates is a concern given this statement. 

ATAGI Statement, 26 March 2022:

ATAGI recommends an additional booster dose of COVID-19 vaccine to increase vaccine protection before winter for selected population groups (see Table 1) who are at greatest risk of severe illness from COVID-19 and who have received their primary vaccination and first booster dose. These groups are:

• Adults aged 65 years and older
• Residents of aged care or disability care facilities
• People aged 16 years and older with severe immunocompromise (as defined in the ATAGI statement on the use of a 3rd primary dose of COVID-19 vaccine in individuals who are severely immunocompromised)
• Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 50 years and older.

The additional winter booster dose can be given from 4 months or longer after the person has received their first booster dose, or from 4 months after a confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, if infection occurred since the person’s first COVID-19 booster dose.

ATAGI recommends that the rollout of the additional booster dose for these groups starts from April 2022, coinciding with the rollout of the 2022 influenza vaccination program.

As of 4pm 2 April 2022 there were 16,807 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in New South Wales and a total of ? active COVID-19 cases across the state the majority of which are being self-managed at home.

There were 1,355 COVID-19 cases admitted to hospital as at 4pm 2 April, including 50 people in intensive care, 19 of whom require ventilation.

NSW Health reported the deaths of 11 people with COVID-19 – seven women and four men. Of these, 1 person was aged in their 30s, 1 person was in their 50s, 1 person was in their 70s, 6 people were in their 80s and 2 people were in their 90s.

Included in the day’s total of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases were 471 people in Northern NSW.

There were 14 COVID-19 cases admitted to hospital with 1 in intensive care.

These 471 cases were all 7 local government areas within Northern NSW:

Tweed Shire – 144 cases across postcodes 2484, 2484, 2486, 2487, 2488, 2489;

Clarence Valley – 75 cases across postcodes 2460, 2462, 2462, 2464, 2465;

Byron Shire – 71 cases across postcodes 2479, 2481, 2482, 2483;

Lismore City – 67 cases across postcodes

Ballina Shire – 66 cases across postcodes 2478, 2479;

Richmond Valley – 41 cases across postcodes 2469, 2470, 2471, 2472, 2473;

Kyogle Shire – 5 cases across postcode 2474;

Tenterfield Shire – 2 cases across postcode 2476; Tenterfield is not in the NNSWLHD but shares a postcode so some cases are included here.

TOTAL 471

On deaths in Australia…..

At the tail end of the Delta wave in December 2021, where we could reasonably point to the start of the Omicron wave, we had 2006 deaths. The Omicron wave saw close to a 200 per cent increase in deaths compared with all previous waves combined, with 5928 deaths by March 29. This includes six deaths in children under 10, two in people aged 10-19 years, 16 in the group 20-29 and 52 deaths in people 30-39 years old. The largest single age group for deaths was in people 80-89 years, with 2025 deaths. Another 2100 or so deaths were recorded in people aged 40-79 years and the remainder – about 1400 deaths – in people aged 90 years and over. [Professor Raina McIntyre writing in The Saturday Paper, 2 April 2022]

As of 4pm 3 April 2022 there were 15,572 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in New South Wales and a total of 266,110 active COVID-19 cases across the state the majority of which are being self-managed at home.

There were 1,418 COVID-19 cases admitted to hospital as at 4pm 3 April, including 56 people in intensive care, 18 of whom require ventilation.

NSW Health reported the deaths of 6 people with COVID-19 – four women and two men. Of these, 1 person was aged in their 70s, 3 people were in their 80s and 2 people were in their 90s.

Included in the day’s total of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases were 437 people in Northern NSW.

There were 19 COVID-19 cases admitted to hospital with 1 in intensive care.

These 437 cases were all 7 local government areas within Northern NSW:

Tweed Shire – 113 cases across postcodes 2483, 2484, 2486, 2486, 2487, 2488, 2489;

Ballina Shire – 83 cases across postcodes 2477, 2478;

Byron Shire – 69 cases across postcodes 2479, 2481, 2482, 2483;

Clarence Valley – 62 cases across postcodes 2460, 2463, 2464;

Lismore City – 55 cases across postcode 2479;

Richmond Valley – 43 cases across postcodes 2469, 2479, 2471, 2472, 2473;

Kyogle Shire – 12 cases across postcode 2474.

TOTAL 437

A reminder......

NSW Health states: 

Everyone is urged to take simple precautions to protect each other from COVID-19, such as:

• use a mask in indoor settings where you cannot maintain a safe physical distance from others

• get your booster vaccine

• get a test and isolate immediately if you have any COVID symptoms

• clean your hands regularly.

SOURCES:

• 2022 media releases from NSW Health

https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/news/Pages/2022-nsw-health.aspx

• COVID-19 in NSW - up to 4pm

https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/covid-19/Pages/stats-nsw.aspx#today

• Australian Dept. of Health, Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic

https://www.health.gov.au/health-alerts/covid-19

BACKGROUND

Current SARS-C0V-2 Variants of Concern in Australia

B.1.617.2 (Delta) and sub-lineages AY.*

B.1.1.529 (Omicron) and sub-lineages BA.*

SARS-CoV-2 Variants Which Decided To Call Australia Home

SARS-CoV-2 Variant A.2.2, Identified 2020-03-17, Australian lineage.

Australia 92.0%, New_Zealand 2.0%, Canada 2.0%, United States of America 2.0%, United Kingdom 1.0%.

SARS-CoV-2 Variant D.2, Identified 2020-03-19, Alias of B.1.1.25.2, Australia.

Australia 100.0%, United States of America 0.0%, Chile 0.0%, Mexico 0.0%, United Kingdom 0.0%.

SARS-CoV-2 Variant D.3, Identified 2020-06-14, Alias of B.1.1.25.3, Australia.

Australia 100.0%.

SARS-CoV-2 Variant B.1.1.136, Identified 2020-06-03, Australian lineage.

Australia 86.0%, Turkey 7.0%, Russia 5.0%, United Kingdom 2.0%.

SARS-CoV-2 Variant B.1.1.142, Identified 2020-03-03, Australian lineage.

Australia 39.0%, United Kingdom 12.0%, Iceland 12.0%, Switzerland 6.0%, United States of America 6.0%.

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