Less than 50 days out from a federal general election Roy Morgan Research reveals that by March 2022 "government leaders dominate the Net Distrust Score rankings: Prime Minister Scott Morrison is the most distrusted politician in Australia, with Defence Minister Peter Dutton and Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce the second and third most distrusted sitting politicians across the country"

Roy Morgan Research, 22 March 2022:

Since March 2019 government trust & distrust have fluctuated but 2021 ended with soaring levels of distrust

March 22 2022 Finding No. 8933 Topic: Press Release Country: Australia

Roy Morgan surveys on ‘Trust’ and ‘Distrust’ of government and government services show distrust levels soared in the second half of 2021 while trust in government fell after sexual assault allegations in Parliament house emerged in early 2021 and were followed by further allegations against Government MPs Christian Porter, Alan Tudge and Andrew Laming.

A look at trust and distrust during the term of the current government shows distrust in government and Government services has consistently far exceeded the level of trust leading to a consistently negative ‘Net Trust Score’ since early 2019.

During the early stages of the pandemic there was a clear increase in trust in Government and government services, however this higher than usual level of trust peaked at the end of 2020 and early in 2021 before the sexual assault allegations from Liberal Party staffer Brittany Higgins emerged.

The sexual assault allegations surrounding the Morrison Government have lingered over the past year and from June 2021 the emergence of the ‘Delta variant’ laid bare the Government’s lack of preparedness for another outbreak of COVID-19.

The extended lockdowns in Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra in the second half of 2021 along with the failure to procure enough vaccines and ‘Rapid Antigen Tests’ later in the year when the ‘Omicron variant’ emerged have seen distrust levels in government increase to record levels.

Government & Government services: Trust, Distrust and Net Trust (March 2019 – Dec. 2021)

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia). Risk Monitor. Base: Australians 14+, Latest 12 months average n=21,314; Latest 12 months average for industry n=700. Includes ABS, ACCC, AEC, ASIC, ATO, Centrelink, Comcare, CSIRO, Defence Force, Education Department, Federal Government, Government (unspecified), Local Government, Medicare, My Health Record, NDIS, Queensland Health, State Government, VicHealth.

According to Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine: “If we take a much longer view and go back to 2007, we see that during the Labor disunity of the Rudd / Gillard years distrust in the Australian government was very high while simultaneously any belief that the government was doing a good job was really low.

“That pattern remained pretty constant through the Abbott, Turnbull and early Morrison governments.

“Then in 2019 when Scott Morrison won the ‘unwinnable’ election things changed - more people believed the government was doing a good job and fewer people distrusted the government.

“But by June 2021 it all went into reverse - Black Summer bushfires, the end of JobKeeper, parliamentary sex scandals, COVID vaccination delays – all sent trust plummeting and distrust climbing.”

Government distrust (red) vs. Government doing a good job running the country (green)

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia). Base: Australians 14+; quarterly average.

“By March 2022 this pattern was being mirrored in the trust and distrust of our political leaders.”

From a snap SMS survey conducted in early March, Roy Morgan can reveal that government leaders dominate the Net Distrust Score rankings: Prime Minister Scott Morrison is the most distrusted politician in Australia, with Defence Minister Peter Dutton and Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce the second and third most distrusted sitting politicians across the country.

Source: Roy Morgan Snap SMS survey conducted on February 28 – March 1, 2022. Base: Australians aged 14+. n=1,409.

Clive Palmer (not in parliament and therefore not in the rankings) has the highest Net Distrust Score (net scores are calculated by subtracting distrust scores from trust scores). Taking distrust on its own however Scott Morrison is more distrusted than Clive Palmer.

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has improved his Net Distrust Score ranking to be in 9th position (from 4th place in March 2020).

“With Peter Dutton the second most distrusted politician in Australia and Josh Frydenberg almost out of the top ten, this may well become crucial if the Coalition loses the May election and there’s a leadership battle between Frydenberg & Dutton,” said Ms. Levine.

“Australian political contests are no longer purely won on trust, they are lost on distrust.”

The March survey reveals the political reverse when it comes to the most trusted political leaders in the country. The ALP dominates the Net Trust Score rankings with Penny Wong in the #1 position.

Source: Roy Morgan Snap SMS survey conducted on February 28 – March 1, 2022. Base: Australians aged 14+. n=1,409.

Anthony Albanese has improved his Net Trust Score ranking to move from 8th position in March 2020 to 2nd place by March 2022. Looking solely at trust, the Opposition Leader is the most trusted politician in Australia.

According to Michele Levine, “The Labor Party is the big winner in this survey with Anthony Albanese the most trusted sitting politician, followed by Penny Wong, Tanya Plibersek and WA Premier Mark McGowan.

“My take-out from the significant win for Mark McGowan in last year’s WA election and the big swing away from the increasingly distrusted Coalition in Saturday’s South Australian election is that the upcoming federal election will be won or lost on how distrusted a party’s leaders are.

“And a final word on the SA election, my view is not so much that the various polls got it right but that respondents to the pre-election polls did on election day what they said they were going to do.” 

STATE OF PLAY NSW March 2022: it's not just flooding that appears to be going on forever in NSW, COVID-19 disease is too

 

In New South Wales as at 4pm on Sunday 6 March 2022 there were 9,017 confirmed new cases of COVID-19 and 108,980 active COVID-19 cases across the state composed of people who had tested positive in the last 14 days.

A total of 1,066 people with COVID-19 disease were currently in hospital, with 49 in intensive care and of these 14 requiring ventilation.

As of week ending 28 February 2022 there had been 39,481 cases of COVID-19 being managed at home or in insecure accommodation.

Five people had died as a result of COVID-19 in the 24 hours up to 4pm 6 March 2022 – 4 women and 1 man with ages ranging from in their 60s to in their 80s.

That brought the total number of NSW COVID-19 deaths since the pandemic began in 2020 to 1,948 individuals.

In the Epidemiological Week 9 ending 5 March 2022 the Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) was the dominant COVID-19 variant of concern circulating in the NSW community, with both of the main sub-lineages of the Omicron variant (BA.1 and BA.2) circulating in the state – infecting 1,208 people.

The average number of COVID-19 PCR tests which were positive in the week ending 5 March was 12.1% (a jump of 2.5 % since the preceding week) and above the 3% positivity considered by WHO as indicating a level of disease containment.

In Northern NSW there were 136 confirmed new cases in the 24 hours up to 4pm 6 March 2022, with 7 COVID-19 positive patients in local hospitals.

The 136 new confirmed cases in the 7 local government areas within the Northern NSW Local Health District were distributed as follows:

NOTE: The following postcode list may not be complete due to changes to the location data set.

Tweed Shire – 43 cases across postcodes 2484, 2485, 2486, 2497, 2489, 2490;

Clarence Valley – 44 cases in postcode 2460;

Lismore City – 14 cases in postcode 2480;

Ballina Shire – 12 cases in postcodes 2477, 2478;

Byron Shire – 10 cases in postcodes 2481, 2482;

Kyogle Shire – 6 cases in postcode 2474;

Richmond Valley – 6 cases in postcode 2470;

Tenterfield – 1 cases in postcode 2475; Tenterfield is not in the Northern NSW Local Health District but shared postcodes are included in Northern NSW data.

Over the next 3 days the daily confirmed new COVID-19 cases grew by 13,018 on 7 March, 13,179 cases on 8 March and 16,288 cases on 9 March. Deaths over those 3 days increased by a total of 18 individuals.

As at 4pm on Thursday 10 March 2022 there were 14,034 confirmed new cases of COVID-19 and 133,783 active COVID-19 cases across the state composed of people who had tested positive in the last 14 days. At 3pm 10 March the national total of active COVID-19 cases was 245,042 people.

A total of 998 people with COVID-19 disease were currently in hospital, with 39 in intensive care and of these 15 requiring ventilation.

As of week ending 9 March 2022 there had been 57,635 cases of COVID-19 being managed at home or in insecure accommodation.

Nineteen people had died as a result of COVID-19 in the 24 hours up to 4pm 10 March 2022 – 5 women and 14 men with ages ranging from in their 50s to in their 90s.

That brought the total number of NSW COVID-19 deaths since the pandemic began in 2020 to 1,985 individuals.

In Northern NSW there were 140 confirmed new cases in the 24 hours up to 4pm 10 March 2022, with 7 COVID-19 positive patients in local hospitals.

The 140 new cases in the 7 local government areas within the Northern NSW Local Health District were distributed as follows:

NOTE: The following postcode list may not be complete due to changes to the location data set.

Tweed Shire – 42 cases across postcodes 2484, 2485, 2486, 2487, 2489, 2490;

Clarence Valley – 41 cases across postcodes 2460, 2464;

Byron Shire – 20 cases across postcodes 2481, 2482;

Kyogle Shire – 5 cases across postcodes 2474;

Lismore City – 14 cases across postcode 2480;

Ballina Shire – 11 cases across postcodes 2477, 2478;

Richmond Valley – 7 cases across postcodes 2469, 2470, 2473;

By 24 February 2022 flooding had begun within the boundaries Northern NSW Local Heath District (NNSWLHD). In the 24 hours up to 4pm on that date the number of confirmed new COVID-19 cases in Northern NSW stood at 281 cases, with 29 currently in hospital including 4 in intensive care. One death was reported.

By 28 February at the height of Northern Rivers flooding the number of confirmed new COVID-19 cases was reported as being 220 cases, with 20 in hospital including 2 in intensive care.

At which point the number of people being tested for COVID-19 in Northern NSW was falling well below 200 a day. On 10 March 2022 NNSWLHD stated:

While there has been a decrease in the number of COVID-19 cases reported in Northern NSW over the past week as people understandably prioritised the immediate flood response, case numbers have been increasing more generally across NSW during this same period.

This suggests there may be a substantial number of potentially unreported COVID-19 cases in Northern NSW at present. [my yellow highlighting]

NSW: You have a problem that you need to do something about. pic.twitter.com/Yimr6DrDFX

— Alan Baxter ♛ (@AlanBixter) March 9, 2022

As at 4pm on Friday 11 March 2022 there were 12,850 confirmed new cases of COVID-19 and 139,873 active COVID-19 cases across the state composed of people who had tested positive in the last 14 days.

A total of 966 people with COVID-19 disease were currently in hospital, with 40 in intensive care and 15 of these requiring ventilation.

As of 11 March 2022 there was no new data revealing the number of cases of COVID-19 being managed at home or in insecure accommodation.

Four people had died as a result of COVID-19 in the 24 hours up to 4pm 10 March 2022 – 1 woman and 3 men with ages ranging from in their 70s to in their 90s.

That brought the total number of NSW COVID-19 deaths since the pandemic began in 2020 to 1,989 individuals.

In the week ending Friday 11 March 2022 there were 83,035 confirmed COVID-19 cases recorded in NSW and the preceding week there had been 63,334 confirmed cases recorded. This represents a case number growth of 19,701 people.

In Northern NSW there were 176 confirmed new cases in the 24 hours up to 4pm 11 March 2022, with 8 COVID-19 positive patients in local hospitals and 1 death recorded of a person aged in their 70s from the Byron region.

The 176 new cases in the 7 local government areas within the Northern NSW Local Health District were distributed as follows:

NOTE: No postcodes available as location data set not yet updated

Tweed Shire – 49 cases

Clarence Valley – 43 cases

Lismore City – 34 cases

Ballina Shire – 20 cases

Byron Shire – 18 cases

Kyogle Shire – 7 cases

Richmond Valley – 5 cases

NSW Health reported for the 24 hours up to 4pm Friday 11 March 2022:

Data provided in the latest weekly report indicates that reported cases of COVID-19 have increased in NSW, while hospital and intensive care unit (ICU) admissions for people with COVID-19 have stabilised during the last two weeks after previously declining.

Reported daily cases of COVID-19 in NSW have increased from 9,466 on 4 March to 12,850 today. Reported case rates continue to be highest in people aged 10-19 years. [my yellow highlighting]

The Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) is currently the dominant COVID-19 variant of concern circulating in the NSW community, with both main sub-lineages of the Omicron variant (BA.1 and BA.2) identified.

As at 4pm on Saturday 12 March 2022 there were 13,093 confirmed new cases of COVID-19 and 146,715 active COVID-19 cases across the state composed of people who had tested positive in the last 14 days.

A total of 965 people with COVID-19 disease were currently in hospital, with 44 in intensive care and 20 of these requiring ventilation.

As of  12 March 2022 there was no new data revealing the number of cases of COVID-19 being managed at home or in insecure accommodation.

Seven people had died as a result of COVID-19 in the 24 hours up to 4pm 12 March 2022 – 4 women and 3 men with ages ranging from in their 40s, 50s, 70s to in their 80s & 90s.

That brought the total number of NSW COVID-19 deaths since the pandemic began in 2020 to 1,996 individuals.

In the week ending Saturday 12 March 2022 there were 87,091 confirmed COVID-19 cases recorded in NSW and the preceding week there had been 66,521 confirmed cases recorded. This represents a case number growth of 20,570 people.

In Northern NSW there were 130 confirmed new cases in the 24 hours up to 4pm 11 March 2022, with 9 COVID-19 positive patients in local hospitals. 

The 130 new cases in the 7 local government areas within the Northern NSW Local Health District were distributed as follows:

NOTE: No postcodes available as location data set not yet updated

Tweed Shire – 31 cases

Clarence Valley – 28 cases

Lismore City – 22 cases

Byron Shire – 29 cases

Ballina Shire – 11 cases

Richmond Valley – 8 cases

Kyogle Shire – 1 cases

As of 12 March 2022 there are est. 2,264 active COVID-19 cases in Northern NSW Local Health District.

NSW Health continues to suggest that there may be a substantial number of potentially unreported COVID-19 cases in Northern NSW at present due to social and physical disruption during the February-March 2022 Flood.

As at 4pm on 12 March 2022 only 4,948,656 men, women and children in NSW are fully vaccinated (3 doses COVID-19 vaccine) out of an est. resident population of 8,189,266 people. This represents est. 60.42% of the state's total population.  [my yellow highlighting]

"COVID-19 cases are expected to double in the next four to six weeks as a new, more transmissible version of the Omicron strain spreads across Australia. 

Although there’s no evidence yet that it causes more severe illness, BA.2 is about 25% to 30% more transmissible, a key concern with many Queensland and NSW residents displaced and homeless after the devastating floods." [Crikey, 11 March 2022] 

UPDATE

Some truths about #covid19. It may not be what you want to hear, but it is what you NEED to hear. #Medtwitter #health @nswhealth ⁦@GregHuntMP⁩ ⁦@BradHazzard⁩ pic.twitter.com/dPCmIzAz1J

— Prof Kerryn Phelps AM (@drkerrynphelps) March 14, 2022

Another bad Newspoll for the Coalition published on 27 February 2022. But which Morrison Government MPs might lose their seats if the election night results were as bad?

GRAPH: The Australian

 

Newspoll published 27 February 2022 in The Australian.

Survey conducted by YouGov on 23-26 February 2022.

Federal Primary Votes:

Coalition 35% (up 1)

Labor 41% (unchanged)

Greens 9% (up 1)

United Australia Party 4%

One Nation 3% (unchanged)

Federal Two-Party Preferred Vote:

Coalition 45% (unchanged)

Labor 55% (unchanged)

Preferred Prime Minister:

Morrison 42% (down 1)

Albanese 40% (up 2)

Unsure 18%

Albanese Performance:

Approve 44% (up 4) Disapprove% 43 (down 3)

Morrison Performance:

Approve 43% (up 3) Disapprove 55% (down 1)

Based on Antony Green’s Election Calculator if a federal general election had been held on 26 February then Labor would have gained government with 92 seats in the House of Representatives to the Coalition’s 53 seats and, other parties/independents would have held 6 seats.

Under this scenario Labor would gain 23 former Coalition seats and it might lead to a potential outcome such as this:

Banks NSW ALP 0.2% - David Coleman MP defeated

Ryan QLD ALP 0.5% - Julian Simmonds MP defeated

Hasluck WA ALP 0.7% - Ken Wyatt MP defeated

Menzies VIC ALP 1.0% - new Liberal candidate Keith Wolahan defeated

Bennelong NSW ALP 1.1% - no new Liberal candidate to date but defeat expected

Lindsay NSW ALP 1.5% - Melissa McIntosh MP defeated

La Trobe VIC ALP 1.6% - Jason Wood MP defeated

Brisbane QLD ALP 1.6% - Trevor Evans MP defeated

Deakin VIC ALP 1.8% - Michael Sukkar MP defeated

Dickson QLD ALP 1.9% - Peter Dutton MP defeated

Robertson NSW ALP 2.3% - Lucy Wicks MP defeated

Leichhardt QLD ALP 2.3% - Warren Entsch MP defeated

Flinders VIC ALP 2.4% - Zoe McKenzie new Liberal candidate defeated

Pearce WA ALP 2.8% - Linda Aitken new Liberal candidate defeated

Higgins VIC ALP 2.8% - Katie Allen MP defeated

Longman QLD ALP 3.2% - Terry Young MP defeated

Reid NSW ALP 3.3% - Fiona Martin MP defeated

Casey VIC ALP 3.4% - Aaron Violi new Liberal candidate defeated

Braddon TAS ALP 3.4% - Gavin Pearce MP defeated

Swan WA ALP 4.7% - Steve Irons MP defeated

Bass TAS ALP 6.1% - Bridget Archer MP defeated

Chisholm VIC ALP 6.3% - Gladys Lui MP defeated

Boothby SA ALP 6.6% - Nicole Flint MP defeated

Looking at the first three Newspoll & Roy Morgan voter intention polls of 2022

So what would the results of the first three voter intention surveys conducted by Newspoll and Roy Morgan Research look like on the ground, in the two federal electorates of Richmond and Page in the Northern Rivers region and, in the neighbouring electorates of Cowper, New England and Lyne?

Would seats change hands at the 2022 federal general election?

Morgan Poll 4-16 January 2022

Nationally a 7.5% swing to Labor

Antony Green's Federal Election Calculator 2022

Outcome

National Party holds Page (1.9%) Cowper (4.4%) Lyne (7.7% ) and New England (10.1%).

Labor Party holds Richmond (11.6%)

Newspoll 25-28 January 2022

Nationally a 7.5% swing to Labor

Anthony Green's Federal Election Calculator 2022

Outcome

National Party holds Page (1.9%) Cowper (4.4%) Lyne (7.7% ) and New England (10.1%).

Labor Party holds Richmond (11.6%)

Newspoll 9-12 February 2022

Nationally swing of 6.5% to Labor

Anthony Green's Federal Election Calculator 2022

Australian Labor Party wins federal government, however the Member for Cook (NSW) Scott Morrison retains his seat (12.5%).

Outcome

National Party holds Page (2.9%) Cowper (5.4%) Lyne (8.7% ) and New England (11.1%).

Labor Party holds Richmond (10.6%)

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