Heatwaves are more than a nuisance - they are a health hazard in our warming world

 

Well this last week of November 2025 certainly brought a reminder that heatwaves are not just a feature of an Australian summer, they are also a definite health hazard for many in our communities. 

Particularly those with pre-existing health conditions, as well as the very young and those in older age brackets. People who work outdoors are also at increased risk. 

[Australian Climate Service, 2025, "Australia’s National Climate Risk Assessment"]

Between 1990 and 2023, the average annual number of heat wave days was 15.6 days. 

[Monash University, News, 21 July 2025, "30+ years of heat wave data to reduce impacts of extreme heat"]

In the four years between 2016 and 2019, the deaths of 1,006 people were attributable to heatwave conditions. 

[Zhihu Xu, et al, Sept 2025,Mapping heatwave-related mortality across 2288 local communities in Australia: a nationwide time-series analysis"]

During those same four years the annual heatwave-related attributable mortality rate (per 100,000 residents per year) was 1.08 nationally. While New South Wales had an annual heatwave-related attributable mortality rate (per 100,000 residents per year) of 1.38.

By way of examples closer to home, when it came to the annual heatwave-related attributable mortality rate in North East NSW during 2016-2019:

Casino Region mortality rate was 5;

Kyogle mortality rate was 4.6;

Maclean-Yamba-Iluka area mortality rate 3.7; 

Murwillumbah mortality rate 2.9;

Lismore Region mortality rate 2.6;

Grafton Region mortality rate was 1.9; and

Lennox Head-Skennars Head mortality rate 0.9. 

[The Guardian, 17 Sept 2025, "Heatwaves caused more than 1,000 deaths in Australia over four-year period, study finds"]

From 2019 to 2022, there were 2,143 hospital admissions related to extreme heat, including 717 patients from Queensland, 410 from Victoria, 348 from NSW, 266 from South Australia, 267 from Western Australia, 73 from the Northern Territory, 23 from the ACT and 19 from Tasmania. 

[AIHW, media release, 2 Nov 2023, "Extreme weather is leading to more injury hospitalisations, with heat being the main cause"]

In 2025 it is not only Gaza being starved to death by malice aforethought

 

In 2025 it is not only Gaza and its people being starved to death and its infrastructure destroyed by malice aforethought.

Just 16 days days into his term as 47th US president Donald J Trump issued a presidential action document titled WITHDRAWING THE UNITED STATES FROM AND ENDING FUNDING TO CERTAIN UNITED NATIONS ORGANIZATIONS AND REVIEWING UNITED STATES SUPPORT TO ALL INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS

which can be found at

https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/02/withdrawing-the-united-states-from-and-ending-funding-to-certain-united-nations-organizations-and-reviewing-united-states-support-to-all-international-organizations/

Historically the United States of America had been the largest member state contributor to the UN annual budget.

In 2025 its financial support was intended to contribute est. 31 percent, with its funding meeting est. 22 percent of the UN regular budget and approximately 26 percent of the UN peacekeeping budget, with the other 193 UN member states contributing an est. 69% of the total annual financial support required.

The intent of this presidential action document appears to be the systematic starvation of the peak United Nations organisation and its agencies, by way of not meeting its obligations as set out in the UN2025 Budget assessment of 8 January 2025 and refusing to pay existing U.S. membership arrears in order to bend this international peak body to his will.

At Day 65 of this second Trump presidency the UN carried state member nation contribution arrears totalling US$2.4 billion of which the United States owed US$1.5 billion.

By Day 180 of this second presidency Trump had not revoked the 4 February 2025 decision, but he had not broken the resolve of the UN to protect its independence. Nor had he managed to shutdown all UN debates & resolutions on the Question of Gaza.

As of 3 October 2025, only 139 Member States (72%) had paid their dues in full. Members that have NOT paid their dues in full included:

• 9 members of the Human Rights Council: Benin, Bolivia, Burundi, Chile, China, Cuba, Ghana, Malawi, Mexico.

• 4 members of the Security Council: China (permanent), Russia (permanent), the US (permanent), Pakistan.

Come October-September the 2025 mainstream media and others began to comment on the acute liquidity stress the UN was experiencing due to this prolonged reduction in funding.

On Day 247, Tuesday 23 September 2025, Trump delivered a speech to the United Nations General Assembly. Like other member states he was allotted 15 minutes but he spoke for 57 minutes. During which time his audience politely laughed at his barbed humour as he attempted to blame UN staff for the problems caused by his own security and communications teams on his way into the assembly hall and up to the lectern and I suspect many, battered by Trump's global trade war, worried by incessant belligerent/ threatening tweets against their governments or hoping to pour oil on Trump's resentment of the United Nations, sat stoically though the better part of an hour of barefaced falsehoods, boasting and arrogant insults, then clapped him enthusiastically.

On or about 30 September 2025 Trump held a press conference with the alleged war criminal Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, at which he announced that he would head the Board of Peace. This announcement comes at 2:22 mins into the video below

On Day 302, Monday 17 November 2025 the UN Security Council announced the following in a press release which began:

The Security Council today endorsed the United States-backed “Comprehensive Plan to End the Gaza Conflict”, welcomed its establishment of the Board of Peace and authorised the Board and Member States working with it to establish a temporary International Stabilization Force in Gaza.

Adopting resolution 2803 (2025) (to be issued as document S/RES/2803(2025)) by a vote of 13 in favour to none against, with 2 abstentions (China, Russian Federation), the Council also authorized the Board and Member States participating therein to enter arrangements necessary to achieve the Comprehensive Plan’s objectives and to establish operational entities to this end. Such entities will operate under the Board’s transitional authority and oversight.

The Council also underscored the importance of the full resumption of humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip in cooperation with the Board, in a manner consistent with relevant international legal principles, through cooperating organizations — including the United Nations — and ensuring such aid is not diverted by armed groups.

Further, the text states that, as the Force establishes control and stability, the Israel Defense Forces will withdraw from the Gaza Strip based on standards, milestones and timeframes linked to demilitarization that will be agreed between specified parties — “save for a security perimeter presence that will remain until Gaza is properly secure from any resurgent terror threat”.

Additionally, the Council decided that the Board, along with international civil and security presences authorized by today’s resolution, shall remain authorized until 31 December 2027, subject to further Council action. The organ also requested the Board to provide it with a written progress report every six months......

Those member states on the Security Council who voted in favour of this resolution, which both what remains of the Palestinian government in Gaza and the State of Israel are believed to object to for different reasons, were Algeria, Demark, France, Greece, Guyana, Pakistan, Panama, South Korea, Sierra Leone, and Slovenia.

It would seem the United Nations Security Council remains dominated by the United States of America and, by a U.S. president who could be suspected of being predominately focussed on seeking both the Nobel Peace Prize and his family's enrichment through land/property development deals on the ground in Gaza.

As of 3:30am AEDST a UN direct link to Resolution 2803 (2025) so an alternate source for this resolution was sought.

Full transcript of Resolution 2803 (2025) can be found at end of an article with title & lede; "Full text of the US resolution for Gaza approved by the UN Security Council: UN Resolution 2803 places Donald Trump in control of Gaza and, using vague language, says if certain targets are met there could be a pathway to the creation of a Palestinian state"

at

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/full-text-us-resolution-gaza-approved-un-security-council

"Adopted by the Security Council at its 10046th meeting, on 17 November 2025

The Security Council,

Welcoming the Comprehensive Plan to End the Gaza Conflict of 29 September 2025 (“Comprehensive Plan”), and applauding the states that have signed, accepted, or endorsed it, and further welcoming the historic Trump Declaration for Enduring Peace and Prosperity of 13 October 2025 and the constructive role played by the United States of America, the State of Qatar, the Arab Republic of Egypt, and the Republic of Türkiye, in having facilitated the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip,

Determining that the situation in the Gaza Strip threatens the regional peace and the security of neighboring states and noting prior relevant Security Council resolutions relating to the situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question,

1. Endorses the Comprehensive Plan, acknowledges the parties have accepted it, and calls on all parties to implement it in its entirety, including maintenance of the ceasefire, in good faith and without delay;

2. Welcomes the establishment of the Board of Peace (BoP) as a transitional administration with international legal personality that will set the framework, and coordinate funding, for the redevelopment of Gaza pursuant to the Comprehensive Plan, and in a manner consistent with relevant international legal principles, until such time as the Palestinian Authority (PA) has satisfactorily completed its reform program, as outlined in various proposals, including President Trump’s peace plan in 2020 and the Saudi-French Proposal, and can securely and effectively take back control of Gaza. After the PA reform program is faithfully carried out and Gaza redevelopment has advanced, the conditions may finally be in place for a credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood. The United States will establish a dialogue between Israel and the Palestinians to agree on a political horizon for peaceful and prosperous coexistence;

3. Underscores the importance of the full resumption of humanitarian aid in cooperation with the BoP into the Gaza Strip in a manner consistent with relevant international legal principles and through cooperating organizations, including the United Nations, the International Committee of the Red Cross, and the Red Crescent, and ensuring such aid is used solely for peaceful uses and not diverted by armed groups;

4. Authorizes Member States participating in the BoP and the BoP to: (A) enter into such arrangements as may be necessary to achieve the objectives of the Comprehensive Plan, including those addressing privileges and immunities of personnel of the force established in paragraph 7 below; and (B) establish operational entities with, as necessary, international legal personality and transactional authorities for the performance of its functions, including: (1) the implementation of a transitional governance administration, including the supervising and supporting of a Palestinian technocratic, apolitical committee of competent Palestinians from the Strip, as championed by the Arab League, which shall be responsible for day-to-day operations of Gaza’s civil service and administration; (2) the reconstruction of Gaza and of economic recovery programs; (3) the coordination and supporting of and delivery of public services and humanitarian assistance in Gaza; (4) any measures to facilitate the movement of persons in and out of Gaza, in a manner consistent with the Comprehensive Plan; and (5) any such additional tasks as may be necessary to support and implement the Comprehensive Plan;

5. Understands that the operational entities referred to in paragraph 4 above will operate under the transitional authority and oversight of the BoP and are to be funded through voluntary contributions from donors and BoP funding vehicles and governments;

6. Calls upon the World Bank and other financial institutions to facilitate and provide financial resources to support the reconstruction and development of Gaza , including through the establishment of a dedicated trust fund for this purpose and governed by donors;

7. Authorizes Member States working with the BoP and the BoP to establish a temporary International Stabilization Force (ISF) in Gaza to deploy under unified command acceptable to the BoP, with forces contributed by participating States, in close consultation and cooperation with the Arab Republic of Egypt and the State of Israel, and to use all necessary measures to carry out its mandate consistent with international law, including international humanitarian law. The ISF shall work with Israel and Egypt, without prejudice to their existing agreements, along with the newly trained and vetted Palestinian police force, to help secure border areas; stabilize the security environment in Gaza by ensuring the process of demilitarizing the Gaza Strip, including the destruction and prevention of rebuilding of the military, terror, and offensive infrastructure, as well as the permanent decommissioning of weapons from non-state armed groups; protect civilians, including humanitarian operations; train and provide support to the vetted Palestinian police forces; coordinate with relevant States to secure humanitarian corridors; and undertake such additional tasks as may be necessary in support of the Comprehensive Plan. As the ISF establishes control and stability, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will withdraw from the Gaza Strip based on standards, milestones, and timeframes linked to demilitarization that will be agreed between the IDF, ISF, the guarantors, and the United States, save for a security perimeter presence that will remain until Gaza is properly secure from any resurgent terror threat. The ISF shall, (A) assist the BoP in monitoring the implementation of the ceasefire in Gaza, and enter into such arrangements as may be necessary to achieve the objectives of the Comprehensive Plan; and (B) operate under the strategic guidance of the BoP and will be funded through voluntary contributions from donors and BoP funding vehicles and governments;

8. Decides the BoP and international civil and security presences authorized by this resolution shall remain authorized until Dec. 31, 2027, subject to further action by the Council, and any further reauthorization of the ISF be in full cooperation and coordination with Egypt and Israel and other Member States continuing to work with the ISF;

9. Calls upon Member States and international organizations to work with the BoP to identify opportunities to contribute personnel, equipment, and financial resources to its operating entities and the ISF, to provide technical assistance to its operating entities and the ISF, and to give full recognition to its acts and documents;

10. Requests the BoP provide a written report on progress related to the above to the UN Security Council every six months;

11. Decides to remain seized of the matter."

STATE OF PLAY SEPTEMBER 2025: Trump hides behind 25 Republican members of the 119th US Congress in order to threaten Australia ahead of a United Nations vote on the question of Palestine.

 

Unravelling the time line.....

On Friday, 12 September 2025 the United Nations issued a media release which stated in part:

Applause rang out in the UN General Assembly Hall on Friday as countries endorsed a declaration on the peaceful settlement of the question of Palestine and implementation of the two-State solution with Israel.

The New York Declaration is the outcome of an international conference held in July at UN Headquarters, organized by France and Saudi Arabia, which resumes later this month.

The General Assembly comprises all 193 UN Member States and 142 countries voted in favour of a resolution backing the document.

Israel voted against it, alongside nine other countries – Argentina, Hungary, Micronesia, Nauru, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Paraguay, Tonga and the United States – while 12 nations abstained..... [See: https://news.un.org/en/story/2025/09/1165835]

The full vote as displayed in the UN General Assembly on Friday, 12 September 2025. Australia clearly voted in favour of the resolution Endorsement of the New York Declaration on the Peaceful Settlement of the Question of Palestine and the Implementation of the Two-State Solution [See: https://documents.un.org/doc/undoc/ltd/n25/239/44/pdf/n2523944.pdf]

On Thursday 18 September 2025 the United Nations issued another media release which began:

The United States once again vetoed a UN resolution demanding an immediate, unconditional and permanent ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, following a vote in the Security Council on Thursday.

The negative vote was cast as the 15-member Council held its 10,000th meeting against the backdrop of famine spreading in the besieged enclave and an ongoing Israeli offensive to take full control of Gaza City.

The draft also demanded the release of all hostages held by Hamas and for Israel to lift all restrictions on the entry of humanitarian aid and ensure that it is safely distributed to the population – in particular by UN agencies and partners.....

The US is one of five permanent Council members who possess the right to veto..... [See: https://news.un.org/en/story/2025/09/1165881]

On 19 September 2025 twelve Republican members of the US House of Representatives and thirteen Republican senators in the US Senate, came together in issuing a joint letter containing a clear threat to take punitive measures against the Commonwealth of Australia, Canada, the French Republic and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland in that order of precedence.

Click on image to enlarge

The letter was copied to the 47th US President and his current Secretary of State. [See: https://files.constantcontact.com/81b76c35801/9888fb71-232f-4c60-863d-292731f12546.pdf].

The Albanese Government quite rightly did not take that letter into consideration in continuing to fulfil its pledge to the Australian people based on a long-held bi-partisan policy with regard to the question of Palestine.

Australia recognises the State of Palestine

Joint media release:

The Hon Anthony Albanese MP, Prime Minister Of Australia

21 September 2025

Effective today, Sunday the 21st of September 2025, the Commonwealth of Australia formally recognises the independent and sovereign State of Palestine.

In doing so, Australia recognises the legitimate and long held aspirations of the people of Palestine to a state of their own.

Australia's recognition of Palestine today, alongside Canada and the United Kingdom, is part of a co-ordinated international effort to build new momentum for a two-state solution, starting with a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of the hostages taken in the atrocities of October 7, 2023.

Today's act of recognition reflects Australia's longstanding commitment to a two-state solution, which has always been the only path to enduring peace and security for the Israeli and the Palestinian peoples.

The international community has set out clear requirements for the Palestinian Authority.

The President of the Palestinian Authority has restated its recognition of Israel's right to exist, and given direct undertakings to Australia, including commitments to hold democratic elections and enact significant reform to finance, governance and education.

The terrorist organisation Hamas must have no role in Palestine.

Further steps, including the establishment of diplomatic relations and opening of embassies, will be considered as the Palestinian Authority makes progress on its commitments to reform.

Already, crucial work is underway across the international community to develop a credible peace plan that enables the reconstruction of Gaza, builds the capacity of the state of Palestine and guarantees the security of Israel.

The leadership of the countries of the Arab League and the United States is vital to this task.

Australia will continue to work with our international partners to help build on today's act of recognition and to bring the Middle East closer to the lasting peace and security that is the hope, and the right, of all humanity.

It should be noted that Australia was a founding member of the United Nations having signed the United Nations Charter and Statute of the International Court of Justice on 26 June 1945 (on the same day as the United States) and, in 1947 gave its formal support for the partitioning of Palestine into two independent states.

[See:https://www.un.org/unispal/wp-content/uploads/1947/11/ARES181.pdf]

So it is somewhat of a puzzle as to why anyone in the Trump Administration could believe that the Australian Government should or would blindly do their bidding in the face of alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity being committed by the State of Israel and the Likud Government

[See: https://www.icj-cij.org/node/203454 and https://www.ohchr.org/sites/default/files/documents/hrbodies/hrcouncil/sessions-regular/session60/advance-version/a-hrc-60-crp-3.pdf]

As Australian mainstream media reported that letter.....

Australian Financial Review, 22 September 2025:

New York | Australia has brushed aside last-minute threats of retaliation from United States Republicans, and protests by the federal opposition and the global Jewish community, to join like-minded allies in formally recognising the State of Palestine, effective immediately at 11pm on Sunday night (AEST).

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese officially implemented the policy change at the same time as the United Kingdom and Canada, one day before a special summit on Palestine convened by France and Saudi Arabia to be held on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York.

Albanese and Foreign Minister Penny Wong, who is also in New York, announced that, subject to the Palestinian Authority adhering to the terms of recognition, Australia would establish diplomatic ties and open an embassy.

Conditions include recognising Israel’s right to exist, a commitment to hold democratic elections and “enact significant reform to finance, governance and education”.

As well, “terrorist organisation Hamas must have no role in Palestine”.

The government argues recognition was the best hope to bring to a head a two-state solution rather than waiting for a peace deal – which has remained elusive for almost 80 years – before beginning negotiations.

“We are seeing the Israeli government continue to provide support for illegal settlements and expansion in the West Bank, we’re seeing a catastrophic humanitarian crisis unfold in Gaza. The idea that Israel is just sitting back waiting to negotiate is not what is happening here. This is about the world saying enough is enough,” said Albanese.

But as Albanese arrived in New York early Sunday morning AEST, a letter co-signed by 25 Republican members of Congress accused Australia and the others of “legitimising a Palestinian terror state” and threatened repercussions.

“Proceeding with recognition will put your country at odds with longstanding US policy and interests and may invite punitive measures in response,” it says.

The letter was addressed to Albanese as well as French President Emmanuel Macron, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

Copies were sent to US President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

Trump tried to derail the recognition process by denying US visas to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and about 80 officials. Australia voted in the UN on Saturday AEST to allow Abbas to address the special summit by video link. The vote passed by 145 votes to five, with six abstentions.

“The State of Palestine may submit a prerecorded statement of its president, which will be played in the General Assembly Hall,” the resolution says.....

Read the full article at: https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/pm-recognises-palestine-despite-us-threats-of-punitive-reprisals-20250921-p5mwok

The 20th statistical analysis, "The Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia Survey: Selected Findings from Waves 1 to 23", September 2025, shines a light on Australian society

 

The Northern Rivers Region of New South Wales had an estimated resident population in 2024 of 318,848 men, women and children, spread across 20,758 square kilometres with a population density of 15.36 persons per square kilometre. [https://profile.id.com.au/northern-rivers/]

The region's residents live in est. 252,350 households of which 29,314 — or est.11.6 per cent of all resident households — contain lone parents with their child/ren.

This percentage is higher than the total percentage for the state's entire regional zone and, represents an increase in Northern Rivers lone parent households of 15,535 over the five years between the 2016 & 2021 national censuses.

In March 2025 the University of Melbourne issued a media release covering aspects of the 20th Annual Statistical Report of the HILDA Survey. 

An annual report funded by the Australian Government through the Dept. of Social Services, based on data collected in a longitudinal study over more than two decades, with the same 17,000 people interviewed year-on-year.

That media release stated three uncomfortable facts:

• inequality is at a 20 year high in Australia, with higher incomes having grown faster relative to middle incomes. While at the same time, the relative growth of lower incomes has declined;

• more than half (51.2%) of survey respondents reported that their real income decreased between 2021 and 2022; and

• single parents remain the hardest hit by negative outcomes:

Across the broad spectrum of the survey and the report’s analysis, single parents are often the demographic that is the most negatively impacted by economic factors.

Single parents have seen a 76% increase in child care costs per child since 2006, compared to a 48% increase for couple parents.

Over the 2001-2022 period, single parents were not only the most likely family type to have poor mental health but also took the longest to recover from poor mental health.

With a poverty rate of 25%, single-parent families were significantly more likely to experience poverty, more than four times the rate for couple-parent families (6.2%). They also had the lowest average wealth levels.

The media release also confirmed that floods across Australia are causing spikes in household damage:

In 2022, the percentage of Australians that reported weather-related damage to their house reached a level not seen before in the HILDA survey.

Since 2009, the annual survey has asked participants whether “a weather-related disaster (e.g., flood, bushfire, cyclone)” had damaged or destroyed their home in the last 12 months. The 2022 results therefore included respondents impacted by the various floods across Queensland, New South Wales, Tasmania and Victoria during late 2021 and 2022.

As such, this latest wave saw much larger rates of home damage from weather-related disasters, jumping from 1.3% in 2021, to 4.5% the following year. This eclipses any rate seen before, almost 2 percentage points higher than the previous nationwide peak of 2.7% in 2011. This recent rise in weather damage hit those in the northeast of the country the most, with roughly 9% of respondents in New South Wales and 6% of Queenslanders affected.

This month the 20th statistical analysis, The Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia Survey: Selected Findings from Waves 1 to 23, September 2025 was released. It can be found at:

https://melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0010/5387806/2025-HILDA-Statistical-Report.pdf

This report presents select findings from Waves 1 to 23 of the HILDA Survey and explores 10 topics:

• Households and family life
• Household economic wellbeing
• The labour market
• Retirement
• Housing insurance
• Bodily pain
• Psychological distress
• Blood donation
• Friendships
• Time stress

Following release of the 20th annual report Barnardos Australia issued the following media release. 

Media Release, 19 September 2025:

HILDA report reveals children trapped in poverty as inequality reaches crisis point

Australian children are being robbed of their childhood, Barnardos Australia says, as new research reveals that more than one in three children in single-parent families live in poverty.

Today’s landmark Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey shows more than one in three (36.2%) children in single-parent families are living below the poverty line, the highest level recorded since the survey began in 2001.

Research found 30 per cent of children in single-parent families have lived in poverty for more than two decades, but in 2022 the figure reached its peak at 36.2 per cent.

Single-parent households are almost three times more likely to be in poverty than households with two parents.

“This research reflects what Barnardos is seeing in the community. Housing costs are pushing children deeper into poverty, with many single-parent families living below the poverty line,” Barnardos Family Connect and Support team leader Michaela Bestwick said.

“When more than one in three children in single-parent families can’t afford basic necessities after paying rent, it is clear we’re facing a national housing and child poverty emergency that demands immediate action.”

Single-parent families have experienced a 76 per cent spike in childcare costs since 2006, the research shows, leaving many children without access to early learning opportunities.

“How can we break the cycles of poverty and disadvantage when families can’t afford to send their children to daycare?” Ms Bestwick said.

“Children experiencing poverty and instability are removed from their families not because of abuse or neglect, but because their parents simply can’t afford to provide basic necessities.

“The government must do more to ensure families are supported and children are given the opportunity to thrive and enjoy their childhood.

“When children can’t access early childhood education because a single mother can’t afford childcare, or when they’re forced to move schools repeatedly due to housing instability, or when they can’t concentrate in class because they’re hungry - we’re failing them at the most crucial time in their lives.

“Every day of disadvantage in a child’s life will have consequences for years to come.”

ENDS

Rising ocean temperatures in whale breeding grounds to Australia's north may be a factor in Humpback whales leaving calving nursery regions too early in historic migration cycle

Research Gate

Southern Ocean humpback whales are shifting to an earlier return migration, 25 July 2025:

Authors:

Rebecca A. Dunlop

Emma Gumley

Ella Holding McGrath

Michael Noad

ABSTRACT

The Southern Ocean ecosystem is undergoing unprecedented environmental changes, which have led to shifts in the primary food source of baleen whales, Antarctic krill. Additionally, many humpback whale populations have rebounded from near extirpation due to historical whaling, increasing pressure on now vulnerable krill populations. Since humpback whales rely on energy reserves built up during their feeding season to sustain them during migration, changes in their food supply are likely to influence their migration strategies. In this study, the timing of the ‘return to feeding grounds,’ or southern migration, of the eastern Australian humpback whale population was tracked over a 21-year period. Both land-based and acoustic surveys were used to estimate the timing of the migratory peak in southern Queensland, i.e., the week with the highest number of whales sighted or recorded. Land-based surveys recorded all whales, including females with newborn calves, while acoustic surveys recorded singing adult males. Both datasets revealed that the peak of the southern migration has shifted earlier by approximately three weeks from 2003 to 2024. Although this study does not establish causation, it highlights a strong correlation between changes in migratory timing and sea ice coverage in the whales’ Antarctic feeding grounds. The observed decline in sea ice area, combined with the large increase in the humpback whale population, are discussed as potential factors contributing to the shift in migratory timing.

The Australian east coast is one of three principal migration paths for whales travelling between Summer and Winter feeding and breeding grounds. 

The Northern Rivers premier masthead expands on the subject.....

ECHO, 12 September 2025:

Decades of surveys show whale migration shift

As we near the end of the 2025 humpback whale migration, both north and south, a University of Queensland survey has revealed the peak of the southern migration of humpback whales down the east Australian coast is now weeks earlier than it was 21 years ago, and a warming Southern Ocean may be the reason.

Associate Professor Rebecca Dunlop from UQ’s School of the Environment found the return migration from northern breeding grounds has shifted earlier by approximately three weeks.

‘Acoustic and visual surveys show the peak of the southern migration in 2003 was in early October but by 2024, we observed it was in the middle of September,’ said Dr Dunlop.

‘While migratory timing naturally fluctuates from year to year by about two weeks, since 2021 there has been a clear and sustained change.’

The cues for migration are not well understood but are likely to be influenced by ecological and environmental factors impacting summer feeding while in the Southern Ocean.

Sea ice and krill populations

‘A big factor is the connection between sea ice and krill populations.’

Apart from the odd temporary stopover, humpback whales do not eat during the winter months when they migrate to tropical and subtropical breeding grounds.

‘Whales likely time their migration to ensure their stay in Antarctic waters is long enough with adequate feed to build the fat and protein reserves needed to fuel their journey to and from the breeding grounds, as well as for reproductive activities,’ said Dr Dunlop.

‘The later years of this study coincide with a pronounced decline in sea ice coverage beyond usual annual fluctuations.’

‘Less sea ice, or a shorter ice season, means less algae which is crucial food for krill.’

‘Less available krill prior to the migration could be forcing the whales back to the feeding grounds earlier.’

Population grown from 300 to 40,000

The eastern Australian population of humpback whales has grown from only 300 in the 1960s after sustained hunting, to around 40,000.

‘We did consider if an earlier departure from the northern breeding grounds could be driven by crowding or even human activity in the Great Barrier Reef,’ said Dr Dunlop. ‘But while the whale population increased steadily over the 21 years of this study, a clear shift in migration timing did not occur until after 2021 when rising water temperatures driven by climate change affected sea ice coverage in the Antarctic oceans.’

This earlier return south is also being seen in other humpback populations – along Australia’s west coast and South America.

‘I am concerned at some point we may see a decline in birth rates because females won’t have the energy to support migrating north, giving birth and getting their calf back to the feeding grounds.’

A research project is underway to determine whether the timing of the migration north away from the feeding grounds has also shifted. 

NOTE: My yellow highlighting in this post

NSW Minns Labor Government announced the creation of the Great Koala National Park on Monday 7 September 2025. However, it may be too soon to broach the champagne as there are a number of conditions & caveats of concern & a timeline which may not see this park legally established before the 2027 NSW State Election

The Minns Labor Government came to power on 23 March 2023 for an initial four year term.

It was elected by the people of New South Wales on an election platform that included the creation of the Great Koala National Park. Indeed this was the third time Labor had taken the Great Koala National Park proposal to an election.

However, despite a recognised koala extinction crisis being underway, no sooner was the Minns state ministry sworn in than this assurance was put on the back burner.

State-owned Forestry NSW was allowed to continue at an increased pace to log native forests within the proposed boundaries of the Great Koala National Park to the detriment of biodiversity and endangered, vulnerable & protected native wildlife.

Now having passed the halfway point of its four year-term in government and facing another election in March 2027, the Minns Government appears to have suddenly realised that it would be politically unwise not to formally announce that at an unspecified date in the future it will legislate the creation of the Great Koala National Park - with qualifications and caveats attached to this announcement set out below in its media release.

MINNS SHARPE MORIARTY SAFFIN - MEDIA RELEASE - THE GREAT KOALA NATIONAL PARK - SUNDAY, 7 SEPTEMBER 2025

7 September 2025 at 07:04

OFFICIAL

Chris Minns Premier of New South Wales

Penny Sharpe Minister for Climate Change

Minister for Energy

Minister for the Environment

Minister for Heritage

Tara Moriarty Minister for Agriculture

Minister for Regional NSW

Minister for Western NSW

Janelle Saffin Minister for Small Business

Minister for Recovery

Minister for the North Coast

MEDIA RELEASE

The Great Koala National Park

Sunday, 7 September 2025

MAP: NSW National Parks & Wildlife Service
Click on image to enlarge

The Minns Labor Government has today confirmed the next major step delivering on an election commitment to protect koalas in the wild, announcing the proposed boundary for the Great Koala National Park, alongside a comprehensive plan to support workers, industry and local communities.

On National Threatened Species Day, the NSW Government is announcing:

• The proposed boundary for the Great Koala National Park

• An immediate temporary moratorium on timber harvesting within this proposed boundary

• A comprehensive worker and industry support package

• $6m in community and small business supports for the mid-north coast region

• An additional $60 million to establish the park.

Without action, koalas are on track to be extinct in the wild in NSW by 2050. At the last election, we promised to take action to establish the Great Koala National Park — and today we are delivering on that commitment.

The park will reserve 176,000 hectares of state forest and connect with existing national parks to create a 476,000-hectare reserve – one of the largest in NSW.

This park will protect more than 12,000 koalas, 36,000 Greater Gliders and habitat for over 100 other threatened species.

The Government has imposed a temporary moratorium effective Monday 8 September 2025 on timber harvesting within the proposed park boundary.

The NSW Government has planned carefully and will stand with affected workers, businesses and communities every step of the way.

It’s why today we are announcing comprehensive assistance for impacted business and workers.

The immediate temporary moratorium will have an impact on 6 out of more than 25 timber mills in the region and approximately 300 jobs.

Assistance includes JobKeeper-style payments to support workers by covering salaries, and also financial assistance towards business operating costs.

As well as financial payments to cover salaries, workers and their families will have immediate free access to mental health, financial and legal counselling services and training support.

The Government has contacted every impacted mill and will now commence discussions with them about their long-term options and ensure appropriate support for workers.

The Government recognises there will be challenges as the transition begins and is committed to working with local communities every step of the way.

The NSW Government has also committed $6 million to support new opportunities for tourism and small businesses on the Mid North Coast, with the package to be developed in consultation with local communities to grow jobs and investment as the Great Koala National Park is established.

An additional $60 million in funding is being announced for the NSW National Parks and Wildlife Service to support the establishment of the park. This is in addition to the $80 million announced in 2023.

The final creation of the park is dependent on the successful registration of a carbon project under the Improved Native Forest Management Method, which is currently moving through the Federal Government assessment processes.

Today's announcement follows extensive consultation with industry and community stakeholders and a comprehensive expert assessment process.

The Government thanks everyone involved for their input and patience during this process.

The Great Koala National Park will not end forestry on the North Coast. The Independent Forestry Panel is continuing to provide advice to the Government to inform the Forestry Industry Action Plan.

Information is available online, via www.nsw.gov.au/greatkoalanationalpark.

Quote attributable to Premier of NSW, Chris Minns:

“Koalas are at risk of extinction in the wild in NSW – that’s unthinkable. The Great Koala National Park is about turning that around.

“We’ve listened carefully and we’re making sure workers, businesses and communities are supported every step of the way.”

Quote attributable to Minister for the Environment, Penny Sharpe:

“The Great Koala National Park has been a dream for more than a decade. It will ensure koalas survive into the future so our grandchildren will still be able to see them in the wild.

“These amazing old-growth forests are among the world’s top biodiversity hotspots – home to more than 100 threatened species including greater gliders, the powerful owl and yellow-bellied gliders.”

Quote attributable to Minister for Agriculture, Tara Moriarty:

“Our government’s priority is to fully support impacted workers with payments and services during this major change.

“That is why we will provide financial assistance to businesses we know will be impacted, so they can continue to pay their staff’s salaries and cover costs.

“We are committed to a sustainable forestry industry in NSW.”

Quote attributable to Minister for the North Coast and Small Business, Janelle Saffin:

“We are delivering on our election promise to deliver the Great Koala National Park for the North Coast.

“This will deliver the protection of our most precious and loved species, our koalas, that everyone in NSW wants to see protected; and the Greater Koala National Park will also provide an economic boon for locals and businesses alike.

“It is important to work together to ensure no one is left behind. We will be supporting impacted workers, businesses, communities and industry to maximise opportunities as we deliver the Great Koala National Park.

“I am committed to ensure that our forest workers and small business forest operators are supported economically and emotionally through this change.”

ENDS

BACKGROUND

Nature Conservation Council of NSW

New data reveals land clearing rates in NSW jump 40% across the state

MEDIA RELEASE

28th July 2025

The Nature Conservation Council of NSW, the state’s leading environmental advocacy organisation, is calling for urgent protection of rural bushland after Government data released today shows a dramatic jump in land clearing rates.

New South Wales’ latest land clearing data shows we are wiping out over 66,000 hectares of the Australian bush each year – that's equivalent to bull-dozing Sydney’s Royal National Park four times over.

“The jump in land clearing across NSW by 40% during Labor’s first year of governing is a major red flag. The Government needs to get moving on its election commitment to 'end runaway land clearing’,” Nature Conservation Council NSW CEO Jacqui Mumford said.

“Just last month the state’s foremost scientific scorecard – the State of the Environment Report – signalled that nature was getting worse across the board, with vegetation clearing a major driver of biodiversity decline.

“Destroying native bushland directly kills and displaces native animals, opens land up to erosion and weed invasion and decreases the health of the landscape.

“If we continue on the current trajectory, scientists predict NSW will lose nearly 500 wildlife species to extinction within the next century.

“The data released today is yet more evidence that NSW’s environmental laws are too weak.

“We’re calling on Premier Chris Minns to do as promised and strengthen habitat clearing laws urgently.”

Some of the highest land clearing rates are occurring in the western part of the state, which is home to the last populations of endangered malleefowl and critically endangered red-tailed black-cockatoos in NSW.

“Today’s findings are not surprising. When the previous government scrapped the Native Vegetation Act in 2016 we saw land clearing rates triple, and since then it’s remained out of control,” Ms Mumford said.

The data released today confirmed agriculture as the biggest driver of land clearing in NSW. In 2023, 77% of all clearing was due to agriculture – or 51,201 hectares.

It also showed that woodland and forest clearing on private land climbed particularly sharply.

“Tens of thousands of hectares of private land covered with habitat, that could have supported koalas and other species, were cleared in just 12 months, and the creatures that call those trees home are paying the price,” Ms Mumford said.

“Currently, agricultural businesses can bulldoze bushland, including koala habitat, without any independent assessment, due to regulation changes by the previous Liberal National Coalition Government. That needs to end.

“The Labor Government promised to rein in land clearing before the last election, but it's still a free-for-all.”

Background:

· The latest data produced by the NSW Government as part of its annual Statewide Land and Tree Study (SLATS) survey shows that 66,498 hectares of NSW bush was destroyed across the state in 2023 through agriculture, native forestry and development. This is a 47% increase from 45,252 hectares cleared in 2022.

· Based on average yearly land clearing rates, since coming to Government in March 2023 around 192,525 hectares of native vegetation may have been cleared by private landowners.

· At the 2023 state election the Labor Government made commitments to: ‘stop excess land clearing, strengthen environmental protections and reform the biodiversity offset scheme’. These commitments are also articulated in their Planfor Nature.

· In 2023 77% of all vegetation cleared was on agricultural lands, 15% due to private native forestry and 8% attributed to infrastructure development.

· Clearing native vegetation directly kills and displaces native animals. Over time, the effects of habitat fragmentation and disturbance can lead to invasion by weeds and further deteriorate the condition and habitat values of the remnant vegetation.

· According to the latest NSW State of the Environment Report report cards, of the 1000 plant and animal species listed as threatened in NSW only 50% are predicted to be living within 100 years time (i.e. 500 species will be extinct in 100 years).

ENDS