Friday, 20 May 2022

Australian Federal Election 2022: giving Wilcox, Moir and Rowe the last word before polling day

Cathy Wilcox

Alan Moir


David Rowe

Climate change impacts even affect official labour force statistics in 2022

Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), 19 May 2021:

Impacts from floods in New South Wales and Queensland 

Flooding in New South Wales and Queensland in late February 2022 resulted in a major disruption to the operation of the Labour Force Survey. As a result, there was lower than usual numbers of responding households in some of the affected regions in March 2022

Given the severity of these disruptions and to ensure this loss of sample did not affect data for Australia, New South Wales and Queensland, the ABS imputed some sample within 15 statistical area level 4 (SA4s) regions for March 2022. This imputation approach drew upon previous information that had recently been collected from people in the affected areas, following the approach used for February 2019 for the Townsville Flood. 

The ABS has re-assessed this imputation, with reference to April 2022 data for the affected areas, and has not revised the imputed data for March. The ABS will continue to monitor the data over coming months and undertake additional analysis of the imputed data as further data becomes available. Data for all SA4s will be published in Labour Force, Australia, Detailed on 26 May 2022. 

[my yellow highlighting]

What the Australian Bureau of Statistics is politely saying is that Labour Force, Australia for April 2022, released on 19 May 2022 – containing headline estimates of employment, unemployment, underemployment, participation and hours worked from the monthly Labour Force Survey – is educated guesswork and voters won’t know if the figures and percentage changes hold until 5 days after the federal general election at the earliest.

From Sept 2013 to March 2022 the Abbott-Turnbull-Morrison Coalition Government's Political Appointments to Federal Government Agencies were as High as 1 in 3


Make no mistake, a returned Morrison Government will take victory as an endorsement of every corrupt and corrupting thing they have done, and they will double down.” [Writer, academic, author Tim Dunlop, Death of a Salesman?” , 19 May 2022]

The Australia Institute, media release, 16 May 2022:

A new report from the Australia Institute’s Democracy & Accountability Program represents the largest and most comprehensive domestic study of the practice of cronyism in relation to appointments to a government agency ever conducted in Australia.

This detailed deep dive report has investigated every single appointment made to the Administrative Appeals Tribunal (AAT) since 1996 – almost 1,000 appointments in total, and reveals that the proportion of political appointments to the AAT has skyrocketed from ~5-6% under the Howard, Rudd and Gillard Governments, to almost one in three appointments (32%) across the Abbott/Turnbull/Morrison Governments, and two in every five appointments (40%) under the current government alone.

Key Findings:

  • The research analyses every single appointment (974 appointments in total) to the Administrative Appeals Tribunal and its precursors between 1996 and 2022.

  • The share of political appointments to the AAT has skyrocketed from 6% under the Howard Government and 5% under the Rudd/Gillard Government to 32% under the Abbott/Turnbull/Morrison term of government.

  • Under John Howard political appointments were 6 in 100, current Government 2 in 5.

  • Under the current Government, the share of political appointments has surged from 23% in 2013–2016 to 40% in 2019–2022.

  • AAT Senior Members who are political appointments are much more likely to have no legal qualifications than Senior Members who are non-political appointments (26% vs 1%).

  • Political appointees were more likely to be appointed on a full-time basis (47% of political appointees) than non-political appointees (22%).

  • Most political appointees had served the party or parties that appointed them.

  • 10% of political appointees had education levels below the level of a bachelor’s degree, compared with 2% of non-political appointees.

  • Since 2016, the current Coalition Government has appointed seven Senior Members without legal qualifications, and all were political appointments.

  • Of the 61 Senior Members appointed by the Coalition Government since 2013, 22 were political appointees.

  • The report makes 10 recommendations for improving the AAT selection process.

Across almost 1,000 appointments to the AAT since 1996, a worrying pattern emerges: appointments have become increasingly political under the current government,” said Ben Oquist, executive director of the Australia Institute.

When John Howard was Prime Minister, only 6% of appointments to the AAT were political, but in the most recent term of the current Government 40% of appointments were political.

These political appointments are much more likely to have no legal qualifications than non-political appointments, even though AAT decisions must consider facts, laws, and policy.

The AAT is responsible for reviewing life-changing decisions by the federal government including deportations, migration visas, NDIS payments, welfare payments, workers’ compensation, and veterans’ entitlements.

Members of the public should be able to trust that their case will be heard by a tribunal member who is qualified and not appointed for political reasons.

A complete overhaul is needed to ensure that the AAT selection process is open and transparent, and not subject to political manipulation. This is now not only important for the AAT but is essential to fix integrity, accountability in government and protect democracy itself.”

Lead author of the report, Deb Wilkinson is an expert in the study of cronyism and is completing her doctorate at the Australian National University.


Cronyism in appointments to the AAT


Besides political appointments, there are other ways of perverting the function of government agencies and influencing decisions/outcomes.

This was Morrison & Co's response to the Australian National Audit Office fulfilling its legislated brief.

ABC News, 19 February 2021:

The Australian National Audit Office (ANAO) runs the rule over the operations of government department and agencies, checking whether taxpayer funds are being used appropriately.

The profile of the agency has risen considerably in the last year after it uncovered the so-called "sports rorts" saga in early 2020 — revealing the Coalition disproportionately awarded community grants to sports clubs in marginal Liberal and National seats ahead of the 2019 election.

The ANAO also uncovered flaws with the purchase of a plot of land at the site of the new Western Sydney airport, called the "Leppington Triangle".

The Commonwealth paid close to $30 million for a 12-hectare parcel worth just $3 million, with Auditor-General Grant Hehir ultimately referring the land deal to the Australian Federal Police for investigation.….

The October 2020 budget showed a cut of $14 million to the ANAO's yearly funding, something the Auditor-General described as "uncomfortable".

Appearing before a parliamentary committee on Friday, Mr Hehir said his team would have to cut the number of major performance audits it undertook each year to deal with those constraints.

"Historically, for the last two decades, the ANAO has provided the Parliament with an average of 47 performance audit reports per year," he said in his opening statement…...

Thursday, 19 May 2022

State of Play COVID-19 Pandemic 2022: fewer Australians taking COVID-19 precautions by April 2022
11am 18 May 2022

Cumulative Deaths from COVID-19 by Age Group & Gender

Australian Dept. of Health
18 May 2022

On Saturday 14 May 2022 there were est. 52 COVID-19 deaths in the previous 24 hours across Australia, on Sunday 15 May est. 21 deaths, on Monday 16 May est. 13 deaths, on Tuesday 17 May est. 66 deaths and on Wednesday 18 May est. 53 deaths. 

Australia is experiencing daily COVID-19 death numbers never seen in 2020 or 2021. According to the Australian Bureau of StatisticsAfter cancers, doctor-certified deaths due to COVID-19 were the second most common cause of death in January 2022.

And yet governments urged on by Prime Minister Scott Morrison have all but abandoned public health measures and, he is currently framing the narrative that Australia has entered the post-pandemic phase and that deaths occurring are in men and women whose COVID-19 diagnosis was merely incidental to their deaths - and in almost the same breath saying that COVID-19 deaths are occurring as expected.

This is a gross misrepresentation by Morrison.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics clearly reported that between January 2020 and March 2022 COVID-19 was the underlying cause of death in 90.8% of all deaths having a COVID-19 diagnosis

On 16 May 2022 the Royal Australian College of General Practitioners observed that; COVID-19 cases and deaths are many times the amount modelled ahead of Australia’s re-opening. Further stating that; In the past six months from mid-November 2021 – when inter-state travel restrictions began to be lifted – there have been 5,906 deaths attributed to COVID-19, more than quadruple the amount that was predicted by the Doherty Institute modelling.

However, with publicly available information on official COVID-19 infection numbers, transmission rates, locations and deaths now being deliberately redefined, fragmented, less frequent or ceasing entirely, most people now only have a vague awareness of how the pandemic continues to play out in their local government area.

This is the result.....

Australian Bureau of Statistics, media release, 17 May 2022:

Fewer Australians taking COVID-19 precautions

Source Household Impacts of COVID-19 Survey, April 2022

More Australians reported household members returning positive COVID-19 tests in April, but fewer reported taking precautions against the spread of COVID-19, according to survey results released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

ABS Head of Household Surveys, David Zago, said: “Our latest Household Impacts of COVID-19 Survey, conducted between 19 and 28 April 2022, showed 62 per cent of households had a COVID-19 test in the past four weeks, up from 46 per cent in March 2022.”

Of those households where someone had a COVID-19 test, 23 per cent reported one or more household members had tested positive in April, up from 14 per cent in March.

However, only 78 per cent of Australians in April reported wearing a face mask in the previous week, down from 98 per cent in February.

In April, Australians were also less likely in the week before the survey was conducted to have taken precautions by washing their hands or using hand sanitiser regularly (92 per cent down from 95 per cent in February), and physically distancing themselves from other people (75 per cent down from 85 per cent),” said Mr Zago.

The results, released as part of a suite of ABS products to measure the impacts of COVID-19 on households from 2020 to 2022, also provide insight into social activities and working from home arrangements of people compared with before COVID-19 restrictions were introduced in Australia.

Almost twice as many employed Australians worked from home one or more times a week in April compared to before COVID-19 restrictions were introduced in March 2020 (46 per cent up from 24 per cent). Meanwhile, fewer Australians exercised at a gym or played sport in April compared to March 2020 (29 per cent down from 38 per cent).”

Australians in April were also less likely to attended social gatherings one or more times a week than before restrictions were introduced (20 per cent down from 27 per cent).

The ABS would like to thank the Australian households that contributed to results for the duration of this survey.

Media notes

  • COVID-19 tests refer to both Rapid Antigen Tests (RATs) and Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) tests.

Wednesday, 18 May 2022

Australian Federal Election May 2022: there is no new version of the Liberal MP for Cook Scott John Morrison, he has signalled an intention to put a blow torch to the bellies of the poor and vulnerable if the Coalition retains government

Four days out from the 21 May 2022 federal general election Liberal MP for Kooyong & Australian Treasurer Josh Frydenberg announced that after the election a Morrison Government would continue applying the knife to funding of federal government services to the tune of $3.3 billion. 

A total of $2.7 billion will be returning to the Treasury coffers by way of across the board annual savings it expects from increasing the current 1.5 per cent efficiency savings requirement to 2 per cent over the next three years.

The Guardian quoted Prime Minister Morrison on 17 May 2022: That is something that I think is entirely sensible and, frankly, taxpayers would be demanding, that these types of sensible efficiencies are achieved and that is part of the process of managing a good budget,” the prime minister said while campaigning in Darwin on Tuesday. “It doesn’t impact on programs or services at all. It never has.”

According to Prime Minister Morrison and the Treasurer this increased cost cutting by way of efficiency dividends does not apply to the National Disability Insurance Agency, Safe Work Australia, Emergency Management Australia, the National Recovery and Resilience Agency, the ABC, the SBS, or small entities with fewer than 200 staff.

However it does appears to include in Morrison's own words "management of staffing arrangements" over the next three years.

On 17 May ABC News reported that: Prime Minister Scott Morrison was asked what agencies would be forced to tighten their belts and whether, given his praise for the public service over the way it helped Australians during the pandemic, it was a "mean spirited" way of rewarding people for their hard work.

"This is responsible budgetary management. We've made commitments in this election and we ensure that we pay for them," he said.

"That's how you manage your budget, you live within your means."

So where will this $3.3 billion be coming from? Especially the est. $600 million in savings which appears to stand outside three years of efficiency dividend savings.

It isn't hard to imagine that Scott Morrison, with another three years in front of him before having to face the national electorate again will return to his perennial favourites - further reducing the actual number of staff or hours worked in government departments and agencies by starving them of real funding increases, as well as further restricting eligibility for social service/welfare programs and removing more treatment items from Medicare rebates/bulkbilling & from the universal free public hospital system.

Individuals and families are already impacted by changes to eligibility and/or rebates for an estimated 188 cardiac surgery, 150 general surgery, 594 orthopaedic items, including hip, shoulder, hand & cardiac surgeries and a number of diagnostic imaging procedures. 

According to National Seniors Australia by 1 June 2021; Nine procedures have been deleted from the MBS entirely, and other changes may include tweaking the definitions of certain services.

Then there is the possibility of sudden removal of bulkbilling or enhanced bulking billing for certain specialist consultations

such as the one playing out right now in a mental health program which inordinately impacts on regional and remote Australia.

ABC News, 16 May 2022:

..Psychiatrists say the Medicare cut has forced hundreds of patients to cancel or scale back their appointments, leading to the worst outcomes for patients some say they have ever seen.

Ms Pomeroy from Mackay had seen her psychiatrist on an almost monthly basis for the last three years for chronic anxiety and Post Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD).

But like other patients across rural and regional Australia, she said she was sprung with the news she would no longer have access to bulk-billed psychiatry appointments over telehealth.

"I went into shock," she said.

"It put me in a tailspin where I thought, 'What am I going to do now?'"

'It's almost like Noah's ark'

In January, a 50 per cent loading — known as item 288 — for psychiatrist video consultations for rural and regional patients was cut from the Medical Benefits Scheme (MBS).

The ABC understands about 45,000 patients claimed the item across 2020-21.

Brisbane-based psychiatrist Dr Bawani Marsden said the last five months had been devastating for patients as psychiatrists were left to choose who, if anyone, they could bulk-bill without the extra loading.

"It's almost like Noah's ark where you're deciding who you want to take with you and who you don't mind sinking and drowning," he said.

The option to bulk-bill patients remains. But without the extra loading, practices say it is unviable to provide to everyone.

A rebate for patients was still available, but Dr Marsden said about half of her rural and regional patients had cancelled because they now could not afford care.

"Almost a decade we've had that support and within a couple of weeks there was an announcement that it's going to be removed," she said.

"We're talking about a peak time here, we're coming out of COVID … and they've taken away a lifeline."…..

Credentialed mental health nurse Michelle Eastwell shakes her head.

"For our patients, it's gone from this seamless, private, de-stigmatised way of accessing mental health services to now … 'what's available?'" she said……

the Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Psychiatrists (RANZCP) has campaigned against the move and said the taskforce recommended finding an alternative solution which had not been done.

"We have put forward a number of solutions including a bulk-billing incentive … for people with affordability issues," said RANZCP's president Associate Professor Vinay Makra.

"Some of our patients are the most vulnerable in society and the government must look at that vulnerability factor."

"If they do not receive that support from a psychiatrist … some will become unwell, and needing admissions to hospital [would] put additional impost on health and hospital systems that are already stressed."

Labor has pledged to reintroduce Item 288 if it gets elected on 21 May 2022.

In March 2022 it was reported that the Morrison Government is considering removing nursing home residents' access to professionally trained allied health services as a way of reducing Medicare costs.

In a media release on 17 May 2022 the ACTU estimated that the announced cost cutting would result in the loss of 5,500 public service jobs.

Tuesday, 17 May 2022

The Perrottet Coalition Government just won't give up on a bad tourism idea for the Clarence River estuary

North Coast Voices readers may recall that in March 2017 Lower Clarence River communities became aware that Liberal MLA for Willoughby and NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian and members of her Cabinet were considering expanding the uses that the Clarence River estuary and the Port of Yamba could be put to.

By November of that year it had firmed into future plans for Yamba to become a cruise ship port and destination with a waterborne trojan horse to be delivered into the estuary in October 2018.

The Yamba and Iluka communities were not amused by both the NSW Government's plans and its lack of consultation.

These communities got loud. The Berejiklian Government went quiet and the named international cruise ship company decided to bypass the Port of Yamba. 

There appeared to have been no specific development activities in 2019 or in 2020 when the global pandemic reached Australia.

However, this was, and under Liberal MP for Epping NSW Premier Dominic Perrott still is, a government which doesn't like taking a decided "No" for an answer.

So this is still appearing on a current tourism website set up under the auspices of the NSW Government.

Note: All webpage snapshots were taken on 16 May 2022 at

Monday, 16 May 2022

Nightcap Oak (Eidothea hardeniana): seeds of hope being planted in the Nightcap & Jerusalem districts




ABC News, 15 June 2020:

A stand of Gondwana-era trees ravaged by bushfire last year is showing what it takes to be one of nature's great survivors.

The critically endangered nightcap oak has survived in the rainforests of northern New South Wales since the Eocene epoch, about 40 million years ago. The species Eidothea hardeniana first emerged when Australia and Antarctica were a single land mass and it has thrived through climatic extremes and across the aeons as its habitat drifted slowly northwards. But late last year its damp forest home experienced something new. After a prolonged period without rain, lightning strikes set fire to the rainforest around Mount Nardi in the Nightcap National Park, eventually burning a total of more than 6,000 hectares.....

There are only 125 fully grown nightcap oaks, all located in a small area of rainforest in northern New South Wales......

Official numbers from the New South Wales National Parks and Wildlife Service record less than a fifth of the total population was killed by the bushfire.....

Dr Kooyman said despite the positive signs, only time would tell whether Eidothea hardeniana's initial response to fire would result in its long-term future survival. 

He said a drying landscape and increased risks of fire were now the biggest threats to the trees.....

Scott Morrison's personal war on the poor and vulnerable continues unabated, using all available tools including attacks on the status of charities


The Coalition Government’s war on charities began in 2017 when Liberal MP for Cook Scott Morrison was Treasurer and hiding behind his Assistant Treasurer Michael Sukkar began to introduce certain amendments to the Income Tax Assessment Act 1997 and regulations.

This war continued under Scott Morrison as Australian Prime Minister, with the passing of Electoral Legislation Amendment (Political Campaigners) Bill 2021 which appears intended to apply a 'chilling effect' on advocacy by registered charities as "significant third parties" and is incorporated in the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 where advocacy by charities apparently falls under provisions 4AA  Meaning of electoral matter.

Also in 2021, again through Michael Sukkar, Morrison introduced the Australian Charities and Not‑for‑profits Commission Amendment (2021 Measures No. 3) Regulations 2021 in order to alter certain governance standards relating to charities' engagement in or promotion of what Morrison & Co characterised as "unlawful activities". This move was unsuccessful when the Senate baulked.

However, it appears that Morrison found a 'workaround'. He uses the Australian Charities and Not-for-profits Commission as his arm's length bully boy.

The Saturday Paper, 14 May 2022:

On March 11 [2022], an email landed in the inbox of Carolyn Frohmader, the longstanding chief executive of Women with Disabilities Australia. The email was from the Australian Charities and Not-for-profits Commission (ACNC). It indicated the commission was conducting a “review” of charities that were registered to receive tax-deductible donations.

The commission demanded extensive information from the charity to determine whether it “meets the requirements” to be listed as a public benevolent institution, a particular subtype of charity whose main purpose is to relieve poverty, sickness, suffering or disability. The commission warned that “an organisation that provides awareness raising, research and advocacy services to the whole or part of the community may not meet the requirements for a PBI as these types of activities may not be considered to be the provision of relief”.

The email contained an interesting take on the law that applies to a public benevolent institution’s ability to conduct advocacy, recently clarified in a ruling by the Administrative Appeals Tribunal. The statement from the regulator was at best misleading and at worst wrong.

More worryingly, the email gave the charity 14 days to meet the commission’s demands, stating that failing to do so “may have consequences for your charity’s registration and its eligibility for tax concessions” and “we can also issue penalties for failing to comply with obligations”.

Frohmader didn’t know it at the time but her organisation had been caught up in the Morrison government’s war on charities – a war designed to intimidate them into silence by prosecuting the incorrect claim that certain charities in receipt of tax-deductible donations cannot engage in “advocacy”.

Advocacy is the heartbeat of change for the better in our world. The idea that we would silence voices because they are connected to a charity is incredibly destructive, not only for our democracy, but for the country.”

The latest front in this war has been a series of reviews carried out into the operation of individual charities, requesting large amounts of compliance material with extremely short time frames for response. These reviews are arbitrary and are not based on any suspicion of a violation. Some argue their purpose is to discourage charities from even considering advocacy, for fear of being tied up in an audit…..

Most recently, in 2021, the Morrison government introduced new regulations that would have given the Australian Charities and Not-for-profits Commission sweeping powers to deregister charities for speaking out on behalf of the communities they serve. This was despite unanimous opposition from the charity sector and a confirmation from the charities commissioner himself, Dr Johns, that the laws addressed an issue that did not exist. A report in Pro Bono Australia noted that, “amid the Morrison government’s push to crackdown on the issue of ‘activist’ charities, the charities commissioner says current data does not suggest this is a problem”.

It was an attack on civil society, free speech and our democracy. And charities fought back,” says Ray Yoshida, co-ordinator of the Hands Off Our Charities alliance. “The alliance co-ordinated a multifaceted response that put a spotlight on the issue in the media and galvanised charities and their supporters to call on federal politicians on all sides to oppose the regulations.”

On November 25 the senate voted 24-19 in favour of independent Senator Rex Patrick’s disallowance motion, meaning that the regulations would never come into effect. But that hasn’t stopped the commission from pursuing the same objectives through more surreptitious means.

Speaking on background because they are not authorised to discuss individual cases, charity lawyers tell The Saturday Paper that Women with Disabilities Australia is not alone. They are assisting numerous organisations that have received similar “belligerent” and “over-reaching” letters.

They argue the regulator is not acting according to its own principles and is not following a hierarchy of enforcement actions. It is possible the commission is running against the principles of the 2013 Charities Act, which calls for “regulatory necessity”, “reflecting risk” and “proportionate regulation”.

Lawyers in the sector have told The Saturday Paper that many charities have simply complied with the letters, fearing repercussions from the regulator if they speak out or rock the boat. This week, however, Women with Disabilities Australia filed a formal complaint with the commission about its treatment.

One eminent charity law expert told The Saturday Paper the fact that the commission accepted $1 million a year from the Morrison government to undertake these reviews as part of the government’s “reform” program could be seen to put the regulator’s independence at risk as it suggests the government is “directing” its activities.

Krystian Seibert, one of the architects of the commission’s regulatory framework and a charities regulation expert at Swinburne University, says the correspondence he’s seen makes him “very concerned” about what the commission is doing. “It’s inconsistent with the intent of the ACNC legislation and the objects of the ACNC Act.”

Seibert says the commission was never intended to be an “overbearing regulator” and the objects in the act were specifically drafted to make this clear. In these cases, that appears not to have been followed. “There are no allegations of misconduct, however the charity is having demands put to it to provide very detailed breakdowns of spending on its activities in very short time frames, the bare minimum amount of time required under legislation.”

I can certainly understand how this would be intimidating,” Seibert adds. “There’s real potential for such a compliance approach to have a ‘chilling effect’ on advocacy, with charities being less willing to undertake legitimate advocacy activities for fear of being reviewed in such a manner.”…..

Read the full article at:

Sunday, 15 May 2022

Sydney-based Dunghutti artist Blak Douglas wins 2022 Archibald Prize with portrait of Wiradjuri artist Karla Dickens standing "knee-deep in floodwater in her hometown of Lismore flanked by foreboding rain clouds, one for each day the rain fell and drowned the Northern Rivers"

The Sydney Morning Herald, 13 May 2022:

Sydney-based Dunghutti artist Blak Douglas painted 14 dark, flat-bottomed clouds hovering around the fierce face of Karla Dickens for this year’s Archibald Prize-winning portrait. A signature element of his art, he normally draws his clouds “white and fluffy, just like our governments”.

But for Moby Dickens, Dickens is portrayed knee-deep in floodwater in her hometown of Lismore flanked by foreboding rain clouds, one for each day the rain fell and drowned the Northern Rivers.

Archibald Prize 2022 winner, Blak Douglas ‘Moby Dickens’.

In its 101 years, the Archibald Prize has regularly managed to capture the zeitgeist but with Moby Dickens Douglas has painted one of the most politically charged portraits in recent memory. Highly recommended was Jude Rae for her portrait of scientist, engineer and inventor Dr Saul Griffith who argues rapid electrification is Australia’s path to net-zero.

In the midst of an election campaign, both paintings carry powerful messages to politicians to act on climate change. More explicitly, Douglas says his portrait of his dear friend stands as a call to vote out the Morrison government.

This painting stands to represent the irony that under the Coalition government the arts is continually kicked in the guts,” Douglas told this masthead. “Here we’ve got the winner of the greatest prize on the continent, which gets all the adulation and media attention, speaking about the importance of global warming and climate change – to a government that consistently kicked us in the guts by sapping arts funding to pump it back to opening new coalmines. This painting is extremely significant in that sense.”…..

Saturday, 14 May 2022

Tweet of the Week



Cartoons of the Week

Cathy Wilcox

John Shakespeare

Peter Broelman

Thursday, 12 May 2022

Eight days out from the 21 May 2022 federal general election and much of the NSW Northern Rivers region is on flood watch again

Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM):

Flood Watch for the Northern Rivers and Central West

Issued at 12:21 pm EST on Thursday 12 May 2022

Flood Watch Number: 3


A trough over western inland New South Wales will generate further moderate to heavy rain in many areas of the Central West on Thursday. This may cause minor flooding along the Castlereagh, Macquarie and Bell Rivers from Thursday night.

* Reissue to include Castlereagh *

River level rises have been observed from recent moderate rainfall in the Northern Rivers. Further moderate showers expected on Thursday may see river levels rise to minor flood levels.

Renewed minor flooding is also possible along the Bogan River where a flood warning is current.

The Bureau is continuing to monitor the situation and will issue further catchment specific warnings if and when required.

Catchment soil moisture is average.

The weather system is expected to cause flooding for the catchments listed. Flood Classes (minor, moderate, major) are only defined for catchments where the Bureau provides a flood warning service.

Catchments likely to be affected include:

Tweed and Rouse Rivers - minor flooding 

Brunswick River and Marshalls Creek - minor flooding

Wilsons River - minor flooding

Richmond River - minor flooding

Castlereagh River - minor flooding

Orange, Molong and Bell River - minor flooding

Turon and Macquarie Rivers to Burrendong Dam - minor flooding

Macquarie River d/s Burrendong Dam - minor flooding

Flood warnings are current for the Culgoa, Bokhara, Bogan, Paroo and Warrego Rivers.

For the latest flood and weather warnings see

For the latest rainfall and weather forecasts see

For the latest rainfall and river level information see

 [my yellow highlighting]


There is a chance of above median rainfall across much of the continent from 14 May 2022 to September 2022.

According to BOM long range forecasting there is also a 50-60% chance of the Page and Richmond electorates in the Northern Rivers region being “unusually wet” between 14 to 27 May 2022.

Stream Flow Forecast

Click on image to enlarge

Climate outlook overview

Issued: 5 May 2022

Winter (June to August) rainfall is likely to be above median for most of Australia, except south-western Australia, the south-east coast, and southern Tasmania which have roughly equal chances of being above or below median.

June to August maximum temperatures are likely to be above median for northern, south-western, and south-eastern parts of Australia, but below median for broad areas of inland southern and central Australia.

Minimum temperatures for June to August are very likely to be warmer than median across almost all of Australia.

The weakening La Niña, the chance of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole, and other localised drivers are likely to be influencing this outlook.

Latest Climate Driver Update, 10 May 2022:

La Niña maintains strength

The 2021–22 La Niña event continues in the tropical Pacific, with little change in strength in the past few weeks.

Several indicators of La Niña, including tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures, cloudiness near the Date Line, and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), have maintained or slightly increased their strength over the past fortnight. However, beneath the surface of the tropical Pacific, waters have warmed closer to neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) levels.

Most climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate a return to neutral ENSO by the early southern hemisphere winter. Only one of seven models continues La Niña conditions through the southern winter. La Niña conditions increase the chances of above average rainfall for much of eastern Australia, while neutral ENSO has little influence on rainfall patterns.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. All climate model outlooks surveyed suggest a negative IOD may develop in the coming months. While model outlooks have low accuracy at this time of year and hence some caution should be taken with IOD outlooks beyond May, there is strong forecast consistency across international models. A negative IOD increases the chances of above average winter–spring rainfall for much of Australia. It also increases the chances of warmer days and nights for northern Australia.

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index is currently positive and is forecast to remain positive for the coming four weeks. During autumn SAM typically has a weaker influence on Australian rainfall, but as we approach winter, positive SAM often has a drying influence for parts of south-west and south-east Australia.

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) has recently strengthened in the western Indian Ocean. Most climate models indicate the MJO will briefly weaken, and then re-strengthen again later this week in the Maritime Continent or western Pacific region. Should the MJO re-strength in the Maritime Continent region, it can enhance rainfall in north-eastern Australia. It also typically increases cloudiness to Australia's north.

Climate change continues to influence Australian and global climate. Australia's climate has warmed by around 1.47 °C for the 1910–2020 period. Southern Australia has seen a reduction of 10–20% in cool season (April–October) rainfall in recent decades. There has also been a trend towards a greater proportion of rainfall from high intensity short duration rainfall events, especially across northern Australia. [my yellow highlighting]