Showing posts with label Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Show all posts

Friday, 18 October 2024

Seven weeks out from the beginning of the Australian Summer meteorologists were predicting "unusually high temperatures from December through to February

 

This is an ABC News article extract on 11 October 2024:







Australia is facing one of the hottest summers on record according to the Bureau of Meteorology's (BOM) weather modelling, which tips well-above-average temperatures across the country.


The forecast for a scorching summer is largely due to ongoing high ocean temperatures surrounding Australia, a persistent feature that has plagued most of the globe since early last year.


The warm seas will not only raise air temperatures but also boost atmospheric moisture levels, swinging the odds to favour frequent storm outbreaks and above-average rain.


Our simmering oceans could also lead to the most active cyclone season in years, with the BOM expecting around 11 named storms in the Australian region, including an increased risk of severe (category three or above) systems.


Of the past six years, the three that were not La Niña periods took the top three spots as Australia's hottest summers on record, all with mean temperatures more than 1.6 degrees Celsius above the long-term average.


This trend suggests this summer will also produce well-above-average temperatures — a prediction supported by seasonal modelling.


The BOM's initial summer forecast, released this week, shows a greater than 80 per cent chance of minimum temperatures in the top 20 per cent of years — which the BOM label "unusually high temperatures"....







So how do conditions look now in Spring 2024?


Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM):


Weekly sea surface temperatures


PACIFC OCEAN SEA SURFACE HEAT MAP







Weekly temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific


For the week ending 13 October 2024, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were:


  • 0.8–2 °C warmer than the 1991–2020 average in the far western and parts of the far eastern equatorial Pacific

  • 0.8–2 °C cooler than average in the central equatorial Pacific

  • warmer than average across much of the north Pacific, with much of the region surrounding and to the east of Japan more than 3–4 °C warmer than average

  • 0.8–2 °C warmer than average around the north-west of Australia's coastline and parts of the Tasman and Coral seas

  • 0.4–1.2 °C warmer than average across most of the Maritime Continent.


The Niño indices for the week ending 13 October 2024 are:

Niño3, −0.1 °C; Niño3.4, −0.5 °C; and Niño4, +0.04 °C. The Niño3.4 index reflects historically neutral ENSO conditions.


5-day sub-surface temperatures


For the 5 days ending 13 October 2024, the analysis shows:


  • sub-surface temperatures around 1 °C cooler than average in the central equatorial Pacific (between 125 m and 200 m depth) and in the eastern equatorial Pacific (between 50 m and 100 m depth).

  • sub-surface temperature anomalies more than 3 °C warmer than average in the shallow eastern equatorial sub-surface (above 50 m depth).


Long-range forecast overview

Issued: 10 October 2024


The long-range forecast for November to January shows:


  • Above average rainfall is likely across much of southern and eastern Australia.

  • Warmer than average days and nights are likely to very likely across most of Australia.

  • Unusually high minimum temperatures are very likely for much of northern and eastern Australia.


Our forecasts have greater accuracy closer to the forecast period. Refer to our weekly updates to follow the evolution of rainfall and temperature patterns as the November to January season approaches.


New South Wales forecast air temperature over land


Max temperature - The chance of above median max temperature for 20 Oct – 2 Nov








Sunday, 8 September 2024

The dysfunctional organisational structure of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology continues to be laid bare


The World Meteorological Organisation website describes Dr. Andrew Johnson as;

CEO and Director of Meteorology at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. He joined the Bureau in late 2016 and was reappointed for a further five-year team in 2021. He is also Australia’s permanent representative to the World Meteorological Organisation in Geneva. Andrew has held several non-executive directorships across a range of domains in the private, government owned corporation and not-for-profit sectors, both in Australia and internationally. He has a PhD from the University of Queensland and a Masters from the Kennedy School at Harvard University where he was a Rotary Foundation scholar. Andrew is a Fellow of the Australian Academy of Technology & Engineering and the Australian Institute of Company Directors.


What the website neglects to say can be found in two September 2024 media articles and one February 2024 legal judgment, which laid bare the disintegrating organisational structure of the once almost universally well-respected Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the part played by senior executives.


The Saturday Paper, 7 September 2024:


Late last month, Dr Andrew Johnson brought together the entire staff of the Bureau of Meteorology. It was intended as a town hall-style meeting to thank them for making it to the other end of a $1 billion, seven-year overhaul of the organisation.


Instead, the beleaguered chief executive told them the landmark project – designed to update the observing equipment, security and resilience of the agency – was a year past due, not close to being finished, over budget by at least $150 million, likely more, and that the bureau was now essentially broke.


At the same time, redundancies were being quietly offered across the agency.


At the beginning of the almost two-hour-long “strategy and focus” session, staff were reminded by general manager of communications Tim McLean that the presentation was an “internal bureau event” and its content marked “official: sensitive”.


The Saturday Paper has obtained an audio recording of the entire address that was leaked, a source says, because of an enduring dissatisfaction with the leadership of the agency and its alleged mishandling of hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of contracts relating to the internal transformation program known as Robust.


Over the past two years, dozens of Bureau of Meteorology employees have spoken to this newspaper about their concerns relating to the umbrella project, which seemed to them to have been plagued by delays, cost blowouts and waste. Now they have some confirmation.


In his address, Johnson seemed keen for applause when his presentation over teleconference concluded. He was met with silence.....


And now the agency is broke according to our management,” a source says, “and APS staff are cleaning up the unfinished and in many cases not-up-to-requirements work left behind by the contractors.”


Another source queries whether, even now, the figures and details finally being released are correct. Take, for example, Johnson’s claim that the entire Robust program of work was a year late and “as at 30 June, 10 per cent more than what we budgeted for when we did the budget in 2017”.


This week, a day after being sent questions by The Saturday Paper, the bureau released a media statement claiming the Robust work cost $866 million to June 30. In the leaked address to all staff, the project leader in charge of Robust was clear that the work was never finished: they just renamed it.


The work that wasn’t finalised under Robust will now happen over the next year as part of the “Robust transition program” at additional cost in terms of budget and delayed dependent upgrades....


The list of upgrades and enhancements supposed to have been delivered but that have not yet been finalised is long. It includes the Australis-II supercomputer, a second and vastly more powerful bureau supercomputer that is now more than six years overdue. Although it has been brought “online” and publicly announced as having been delivered just weeks ago, the machine is still being tested.


And so the program definitely had its challenges, and there are a few outstanding scope that we still need to deliver, and they’re now wrapped up in what we’re calling the Robust transition program, and that program has been established to complete the remaining scope that we set out in the business case,” Robust program director Nichole Brinsmead told staff during the presentation.


That includes things like finalising the tsunami [warning] replacement project, finalising the flood [warning] upgrade, completing the testing of the new supercomputer, which has dependency on the MTU [maximum transmission unit] upgrade and moving our model production capability into the new data centre.


There’s also the finalisation of the AWS [automatic weather stations], so we need to get to the point where we’ve actually completed all the testing of the new AWS local processing unit, and then we could commence rollout there. And there’s a few other components in there as well. There’s some data management, data platform capability that needs to be complete. And we’ve also had to set up a separate capability to support the primary weather services and the visualisation capability for our operational forecasting.”


A new website for the bureau, delivered almost two years late, is now public for beta testing and will be launched into full production next year. Contracts for that service, which went to Accenture for a sum of $31 million in 2019, were extended for a ninth time on July 22 and more than doubled in cost to $75 million. Similarly, costs for a data integration platform tripled from $11 million to $35 million and the contract for a data management platform more than quadrupled in fees to $67 million.


We all know the public trusts us, but that trust is contingent on being able to continue providing the service they trust. And under our current management, they’re obsessed with optics not output.”


These cost blowouts were attributed to “dependent delays due to the availability of ICT infrastructure” or additional work made at the bureau’s request. In other words, the failure to complete one Robust program measure had flow-on effects and caused delays and cost overruns in other related matters.


As previously reported by The Saturday Paper, the ongoing inability to launch the new supercomputer Australis-II from 2018 torpedoed efforts by the Bureau of Meteorology to introduce its promised 2019 release of the latest forecast simulation model, the Australian Parallel Suite 4 (APS4), a powerful upgrade from the current APS3 version.


That work was abandoned. Similarly, BoM researchers noted earlier this year that their own work on the Australian Fire Danger Rating System could not be verified in real time because Australis-II was not ready.....


Meteorologists have told The Saturday Paper these changes and various edicts from on high have led to a loss of local forecaster knowledge, and have confirmed that ordinary forecasts had reduced in quality because bureau management had not sanctioned experienced meteorologists to take small amounts of time to fix known errors in the automatic model outputs.


As these decisions accumulated, Robust projects hit serious delays that rippled through the organisation. During this, Johnson pressed the button on a Bureau of Meteorology rebrand that he claimed was not a rebrand but a “brand refresh”. All internal documents said otherwise.


The million-dollar operation was launched in October 2022 and included a new logo designed under Johnson’s direction and a ridiculed new directive that media and staff should no longer refer to the “BoM” but only to “the Bureau”. Part of the cost was attributed to the hiring of an external PR firm, The C Word Communications. The C Word founder, Jack Walden, was then hired as a general manager in the comms division. He stayed on for almost three years but has been made redundant.


Meteorologists were furious the rebrand happened at all, especially as it sucked crucial resources out of a strapped organisation in the middle of a run of severe weather.


Now, Johnson has come as close to apologising for the saga as he ever has.


Clearly, we took a lot of learnings out of the brand refresh process,” he told staff.


It didn’t go as well as we’d have liked. We’ve learned. We’ve learned deeply and reflected deeply on that, on that process.”


The fiasco sharpened attention on the BoM. Johnson concedes the criticism hurt.


I know from time to time there’s negative commentary about what it is we do,” he said.


And I know many of us feel that when we see things written in the newspapers.....


In the Federal Circuit Court case, staff found confirmation of something they’d long feared: that management were not being honest with them about the state of the organisation.


If they’re willing to mislead the court, they’re not too fussed about telling us the truth are they,” one BoM employee says. “Everything is waved away or minimised.”....


In a world where consequences are slim, BoM staff don’t expect any from this saga or the failures of the Robust program. According to an official answer to Senate estimates, Johnson “does not have a formal performance agreement” in place.


Besides, he said, the cost overruns and ongoing delays performed better than a home renovation job.


I think any fair and reasonable person would say this is quite an amazing result,” he said. “I don’t know about you, but if you want to get a tradie or a plumber or a chippie or a sparkie now, compared with what you got in 2017, everything costs more.”


As one employee noted, it was “bizarre logic”, not least because the cost blowout would end up being much more than the claimed “10 per cent”.


I don’t know a tradie charging billions of taxpayer dollars and only delivering half of what they’re supposed to and charging more than they’re supposed to,” they said.


Honestly everyone thought he was going to step down at this meeting and I think a lot of people were bitterly disappointed that he didn’t.”


Then there is the matter of the Bureau's workplace relations which when made public further shattered confidence in this organisation.


In 2018 Jasmine Chambers took up the position of General Manager, Global and National Science Relations at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), with a total remuneration package of $218,700.00 per annum.


Reading between the lines it appears Ms. Chambers offended the alpha male sensibilities of one or more senior executives in an organisation which still has a predominately male workforce.


What followed looked suspiciously like a sustained effort to remove her from employment with BOM and such employment ceased with effect on 21 December 2020.


The Sydney Morning Herald, 5 September 2024:


The Bureau of Meteorology has lost a bitterly fought unfair dismissal case that dates back more than five years, while a raft of current and former employees have come forward to describe the workplace culture as “toxic” and “chaotic”.


The Commonwealth agency dropped its appeal of an unfair dismissal decision in favour of former employee Jasmine Chambers, who joined in 2019 as general manager of global and national science relationships. The appeal case was settled out of court late last month, which means the findings from the earlier judgment stand.


In a scathing judgment in February, Judge Doug Humphreys, from the Federal Circuit and Family Court of Australia, found the bureau had breached the Fair Work Act in four ways when it drove Chambers out of the organisation in 2020.


The Chambers case concludes as five other current and former employees, speaking on condition of anonymity, have shared claims with this masthead of a “toxic” culture, “chaotic” decision-making, and bullying.


All five claim that part of the reason for low staff morale was an institutional reluctance to deal with questions about climate change and extreme weather at a time when the nation was dealing with mounting climate disasters such as bushfires and floods. The BoM denies these claims.....


The court criticised several managers, particularly chief executive Dr Andrew Johnson. The former Coalition government appointed Johnson in 2016 and renewed the position for another five years in 2021.


The court formed the view that Dr Johnson managed the bureau using a close and detailed management style, in which his views were final and not subject to any challenge,” the judgment says....


Read the full article at:

https://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/bom-loses-illegal-sacking-case-as-staff-condemn-toxic-and-chaotic-culture-20240817-p5k35d.html



Extract from Chambers v Commonwealth of Australia ( Bureau of Meteorology ) (No 2) [2024] FedCFamC2G 100 (9 February 2024). Last updated: 3 June 2024:


"83.The Court accepts that the applicant has tried to recall her evidence as best she can and overall, the Court finds her evidence is reliable and credible.


84. Dr Brunet joined the Bureau shortly before the applicant. He had occupied senior positions within similar organisations in other countries and had moved to Australia to take up the position he occupied. While he agreed he approved the applicant’s overseas travel plan in advance, including the PTO and annual leave, he refused to accept any responsibility for the approval not complying with usual requirements. The Court accepts the applicant’s recall of a conversation in July 2019 where Dr Brunet said to the applicant “Don’t show me the rules, - you need to learn. I do not have time to read the documentation that I am approving. I have to trust my people, you and others, that you will not do the wrong thing”. The Court formed the view that Dr Brunet was not prepared to accept any personal responsibility for any matters involving the applicant where it may have negatively impacted upon his position within the Bureau. It was clear that Dr Brunet would defer in his view on any matter to that of Dr Johnson, even where he may have disagreed with that view. His Affidavit evidence needs to be carefully scrutinised and compared to the contemporary records before being relied upon....


89. Dr Johnson gave both Affidavit and oral evidence and was cross examined for some time. The Court formed a view that he had significant reservations in relation to the applicant, in that she did not come from the scientific background and that she took “strong positions” whereas in his view, the applicant should have backed off and listened. Dr Brunet described these actions as embarrassing to Dr Johnson (Court Book 175). The Court formed the view that Dr Johnson managed the Bureau using a close and detailed management style, in which his views were final, and not subject to any challenge. The fact that the applicant pushed back, seeking examples and justifications for positions, in the Court’s view, would have been a matter that would have exacerbated Dr Johnson’s negative views of the applicant....


91. Dr [Peter] Stone’s evidence is dealt with further on in this judgment. The Court found his evidence unsatisfactory and not credible or reliable. He sought to explain away issues with his evidence. His explanations were unconvincing. The lack of credibility of Dr Stone’s evidence however not only impacts upon his evidence. It impacts on the entire narrative being put forward by the Bureau. It invites negative findings as to the whole of the narrative, despite the evidence of other witnesses." 


Wednesday, 24 July 2024

Winter temperatures have been rather chilly at times in the Northern Rivers region in NSW but hopefully the last six weeks will be slightly warmer

 

2024 Winter temperatures recorded by Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) weather stations this July month from the 1st to the 23rd regularly showed maximum and minimum temperatures at an uncomfortable level for those Northern Rivers residents who either have no heating in their homes or cannot afford to turn their heating on due to rising costs.


Yamba recorded only 8 July days where the maximum reached in the 20°C range (20.3°C-20.7°C) and 10 days with minimums under 9.7°C (7.3°C-9.6°C). With the coldest maximum ambient temperature occurring on Monday 1 July at 16.0°C and the coldest minimum ambient temperature recorded on Tuesday 23 July at 7.3°C.


Grafton recorded its coldest maximum ambient temperature at 16.5°C on Monday 8 July and its coldest minimum ambient temperature at 1.3°C on Friday 19 July.


Evans Head recorded its coldest maximum ambient temperature as 15.2°C on Monday 1 July and its coldest minimum ambient temperature as 5.3°C on Monday 15 July.


Ballina recorded a coldest maximum ambient temperature on Monday 1 July at 16.5°C and a coldest minimum ambient temperature coming in at 3.5°C on Tuesday 23 July.


Byron Bay's coldest recorded maximum ambient temperature was 15.6°C on Tuesday 16 July and its coldest recorded minimum ambient temperature was 8.3°C on the same day.


Lismore's coldest recorded its coldest maximum ambient temperature was at 14.9°C on Monday 1 July—when temperatures only rose or fell between between 0.6°C all day—and coldest minimum ambient temperature was 1.5°C on Tuesday 23 July.


Casino's coldest maximum ambient temperature was 15.3°C on Monday 1 July and coldest minimum ambient temperature was 2.8 °C on Monday 22 July.


Tabulam recorded its coldest maximum ambient temperature at 11.1°C on Tuesday 2 July and its coldest minimum ambient temperature at a chilly 2.6°C on Monday 15 July.


Murrwillumbah's coldest recorded coldest maximum ambient temperature was at 16.5°C on Tuesday 2 July and its coldest minimum ambient temperature at an icy 1.0°C on Saturday 20 July.


This is the BOM latest temperature outlook issued:


Temperature—Summary

Issued: 18 July 2024


Warmer August to October days and nights likely across most of Australia


August to October

  • Above average maximum and minimum temperatures are likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) across most of Australia, however, it is the cool season and periods of unusually cold weather are still possible.

  • There is an increased chance of unusually high maximum temperatures2 for most of Australia, particularly across northern Australia and Tasmania.

  • There is an increased chance of unusually high minimum temperatures2 across Australia, particularly across northern, central and eastern Australia.


1 Unusually high maximum and minimum temperatures refer to the warmest 20% of August to October days and nights, respectively, between 1981 and 2018.


For the Northern Rivers region these predicted high maximum and minimum temperatures are spatially distributed thus:


Chance of exceeding median maximum

 



Chance of exceeding median minimum




Thursday, 4 July 2024

Under current senior management has the Australian Bureau of Meteorology become a cheap servant of international mining giants?

  

Rick Morton writing in The Saturday Paper, 29 June - 5 July 2024:


Bureau of Meteorology executives stared down an internal revolt from their own forecasters to create a “tailored” service for Woodside Energy’s shipping operation at its multibillion-dollar Scarborough gas facility on Western Australia’s Burrup Peninsula, insiders say.


The service was unusual in that the BoM’s internal commercial services team – which usually handles fee-for-service corporate requests – rejected the job due to a lack of staff. The commercial project was then handballed to the agency’s aviation division.


Although the Bureau of Meteorology has an aviation division forecaster looking after northern Western Australia, producing aerodrome forecasts for dozens and dozens of mine sites with fly-in fly-out workforces, Woodside’s dock in WA, where gas is loaded for transport to mostly foreign markets, has nothing to do with air travel.


What we really hated – and we were really vehemently against it, and they just basically totally ignored us – was that they’ve also got us doing a warning service for Woodside petroleum where they load the ships with gas,” a senior meteorologist tells The Saturday Paper.


It has nothing to do with aviation. And it’s been our argument all along that that forecaster who’s looking after northern Western Australia, he’s supposed to drop everything and send these very specific warnings to Woodside that there’s a wind gust coming in that might affect your operations.


And this is 24 hours a day, basically, over the summer when there are storms around.”


The BoM has multiple divisions under its new structure and the forecasters who produce updates for the general public work under the banner of National Production. Aviation Weather Services is a separate division but the organisation draws talent from the same pool of meteorologists, which it is also responsible for training via its accelerated one-year graduate program in Melbourne....


Since Dr Andrew Johnson joined the bureau as chief executive in 2016, the number of forecaster positions across weather, floods and bushfires has grown by just five roles.


When meteorologists in aviation saw the original contract for the Woodside Energy project, they were aghast. It was worth about $30,000 when the contract was signed in 2020. It is not clear how much the agency currently charges the resource giant for the same service.


It was pretty insignificant, which just made us angrier, because we didn’t want to do it in the first place,” a meteorologist says.


We didn’t think the bureau should have anything to do with fossil fuel companies, quite frankly.”


Airlines pay tens of millions of dollars each year for similar BoM expertise, although they also employ their own meteorologists in recognition of the critical role weather plays in the conduct of their business. Qantas, for example, has a team of six working rolling shifts covering 24/7 operations. Woodside Energy Group, which recorded a net after-tax profit of US$1.7 billion last year, employs metocean engineers crucial for offshore exploration but has no such dedicated team of meteorologists.


A spokesperson for the Bureau of Meteorology told The Saturday Paper the agency “fully and separately recovers the cost of providing tailored services to its resources sector and aviation customers” but conceded the workforce demands of its commercial work affect the whole organisation.


The meteorological and other services provided by the Bureau to its fee for service customers in most cases build upon services created for the public,” the spokesperson said in a statement.


As such, they draw on a very wide range of Bureau capability. Without exception, the cost of elaborating, or tailoring, those services is fully recovered from the customer receiving the tailored services.”


Under the Meteorology Act 1955, which governs the BoM, there is a stipulation that the agency’s functions must be performed “in the public interest generally” and in particular for the purposes of the Defence Force, navigation, shipping, aviation and “primary production, industry, trade and commerce”. Nothing forced the BoM to bid for the Woodside contract, however.


They’re paying pennies to a stretched organisation … it’s a drop in the ocean for Woodside, but it costs us a great deal more in work hours, staff morale and eventually quality.”


In its annual report from last year, the agency crowed about how Woodside Energy “selected the Bureau to provide a suite of critical meteorological services following a competitive tender process”.


This success is testament to the Bureau’s meteorological skills, customer support capability and deep industry expertise, honed over decades of service delivery to the resources sector,” it said.


This continues the long-standing partnership between Woodside and the Bureau, with both organisations gaining significant value from working closely together.


Weather is highly impactful for Woodside. With many operating assets in exposed locations and vulnerable to hazardous weather, timely and accurate weather forecasts are key to Woodside’s operational success and the safety of their staff.”


Similarly, the BoM was enthusiastic about its partnership with Rio Tinto after it “started providing Rio Tinto’s Operational Excellence Team with logistics forecasts, particularly tailored rainfall information, aimed at enhancing operational efficiency”.


Facilitated by the Bureau’s accurate predictions, Rio Tinto reported significant efficiency improvements following a few rainfall events in early 2023,” it said.


A direct economic impact of approximately $6 million has been associated with the Bureau’s services, as validated by Rio Tinto, over 3 distinct weather events confirming the significant value delivered.”


There is no doubt obligations are imposed on the Bureau of Meteorology by its governing legislation, but senior forecasters who have worked at the agency for decades query whether management needs to be quite so proactive about hawking the skills of overworked staff to the resources sector as the climate crisis grows.


It would cost Woodside at least half a million dollars a year to stand up a 24/7 warning service through summer, but probably close to millions of dollars, and they’re paying pennies to a stretched organisation for the privilege,” a meteorologist says.


Either way, it’s a drop in the ocean for Woodside, but it costs us a great deal more in work hours, staff morale and eventually quality. It’s gone downhill so much since I joined. At the time, I believe the Bureau had the highest retention of staff of any section of the federal government and we’re at the stage now where there is so much unhappiness, morale is so low. In aviation, they’re struggling to hold on to people.”


The BoM recently withdrew its specialist Sydney Airport Meteorological Unit (SAMU) from service, despite considerable protest by airlines, ground support companies and the airport itself, and blended its role with the broader aviation division.


Management argued the forecasts could be done by the Brisbane Aviation Forecasting Centre, which historically has been responsible for forecasting from the Cocos Islands north-west of WA, across the northern half of Australia and down the Queensland coast.


Brisbane now handles half of New South Wales, down the coastline, taking in Sydney, while the rest of the state is managed by the Melbourne Aviation Forecasting Centre.


The eastern half of NSW contains terrible weather generally, and the Sydney basin, which is a huge amount of work. So the bureau, in their wisdom, a few years ago decided to close the Sydney Airport Meteorological Unit,” a forecaster says.


And there was a huge uproar amongst Sydney Airport operations and air traffic and the airlines, because you had all of these highly experienced people and Sydney Airport is really difficult to forecast. They are so angry if anything interrupts their flow. It’s a huge job.”


Meteorologists warned management at the bureau Sydney Airport was not like any other airport. Fog is a huge problem and wind speed and strength is critical. Closing runways in Sydney causes delays across the national network and fog had the potential to reroute international flights that land in the early morning, costing airlines hundreds of thousands of dollars.


Management didn’t listen.


So the airlines get pretty angry when the forecast goes amiss, and it’s gone amiss a lot more since SAMU disappeared. And that’s not blaming the forecasters; they just have too much bloody work to do.”


These changes have made meteorologists particularly incensed by the fact the aviation division is now being used to do contract work for the resources sector. In all, the Bureau of Meteorology provides services to 32 fossil fuel clients. [my yellow highlighting]


One of these is Santos, which has operations in the Bayu-Undan gas field, located within the territorial waters of Timor-Leste, the control of which has reverted exclusively to Timor-Leste following a maritime borders treaty decision in late 2017.


Although the BoM provides forecasting expertise and equipment to Pacific nations under the auspices of the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, its activities in the gas fields outside Australia are entirely on behalf of Santos.


We’re also doing forecasts for the planes flying around the Timor gas field between Australia and Dili and a forecast for Dili as well,” says a bureau meteorologist who spoke on condition of anonymity.


I’m not sure who pays for that but, again, we don’t have any equipment there. It’s a really hard place to forecast, so we’d rather not be doing that either.”


Coincidentally, the bureau’s Brisbane office is now located in the Santos building.


There is a fine line between providing a critical service for the Australian economy and becoming cheerleaders for certain parts of it,” a forecaster says.


Many of us see it as a particular issue where the organisation is not healthy. We are not flourishing at all, actually, and the weather conditions that lead to our overwork are growing worse every year because of climate change.”


In late 2021, when Woodside announced it would pursue the $16.5 billion investment in the Scarborough gas project off WA’s northern coast, it estimated the total carbon dioxide emissions from the project would soar past 800 million tonnes.


However, a report by the global firm Climate Analytics later found that when all “associated and interlinked projects” were included in the equation, these emissions would top 1.37 billion tonnes over three decades. In all, that is almost three times the total annual emissions produced by Australia.


That’s what we’re breaking our backs for,” a senior meteorologist says.


Full article can be read at:

https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/environment/2024/06/29/exclusive-bom-staff-redirected-work-fossil-fuel-companies


BACKGROUND


Financial status of major resource corporations mentioned in the Morton article.


Santos Limited is an international petroleum and gas exploration, production & supply corporation with interests in Australia, Papua New Guinea, Timor Sea, South-East Asia, the United States & United Kingdom. Having a 2023 full year sales revenue of US$5.889 billion, underlying net profit after tax of US$1.423 billion and free cash flow of US$2.128 billion. It will come as no surprise that its last published Tax Contribution Disclosure (31.12.22) revealed that despite declaring a net profit in the millions, Santos Limited paid no corporate tax in that 2022 reporting period courtesy of Australia's generous corporate taxation policies. [Santos Limited Annual Report 2023]


Rio Tinto Group is a multinational metals & mining corporation based in London UK & Melbourne Australia, with interests in Australia, USA, Canada, Iceland, Madagascar, Mongolia, New Zealand & South Africa. Having a 2023 annual consolidated sales revenue of $54.0 billion, profit after tax of $10.1 billion and free cash flow of $7.7 billion. Corporate tax paid in Australia amounted to $4.1 billion. [Rio Tinto Group Annual Report 2023]


Woodside Energy Group Ltd is an multinational petroleum exploration and production company with its head office in Perth along with five other offices in Australia and, offices in the UK, USA, Canada, Mexico, Africa, the Caribbean & Asia Pacific. Having a 2023 annual operating revenue of US$13.9 billion, underlying net profit after tax of US$3.3 billion and a free tax flow of US$560 million. Income tax expense in 2023 US$653 million. [Woodside Energy Annual Report 2023


Tuesday, 11 June 2024

Is The Bureau of Meteorology Marching Australia Into Even More Danger As Climate Change Risks Increase?

 

No-one who lived through the catastrophic combination of weather systems which flooded est. 600 kilometres of Australia’s east coast in 2022 would be in doubt that the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) was failing in its primary function.


Particularly here in the NSW Northern Rivers region, where the erratic & contradictory forecasting by BOM during the eight days of 23 February to 2 March 2022 saw at least four people drown in preventable deaths.


Months after that record-breaking flood event ABC News reported on the findings of a NSW parliamentary inquiry:

information from the State Emergency Service (SES) and Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) was "incorrect and out of date", leaving the community with "no other option but to ignore government advice and save lives"....It urged the weather bureau to review its rain data infrastructure and flood modelling tools.


However, the worry began for me long before that, when in 2016 I read this:

Dr Johnson has a Bachelor of Agricultural Science (Honours) and PhD from the University of Queensland and a Masters in Public Administration from the John F Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University where he was a Rotary Foundation Scholar. He is a Fellow of the Australian Academy of Technical Sciences and Engineering and the Australian Institute of Company Directors.


And realised there was no indepth formal meteorological training in his background.


Worries about BOM under Dr.Johnson have been bubbling to the surface in the media since his installation as Director and this below is only the latest.....



"I'm told a nationwide data centre outage on Friday affected observations ~across the entire country~ Missing min and max temps, wind speeds for Friday and Sat at every single obs. station with the exception of the airports which are not yet auto" [Rick Morton

@SquigglyRick, 10 June 2024]





The Saturday Paper, June 8 – 14, 2024 | No. 503:



Inside the Bureau of Meteorology’s forecast failings


As the Bureau of Meteorology pulls back on its international obligations, increasing automation and a lack of experienced staff has made forecasts less reliable.


By Rick Morton



Bureau of Meteorology chief executive Dr Andrew Johnson turned up to Senate estimates last month without his right-hand man, Peter Stone, many of the bureau’s other executives and, apparently, his briefing notes.


Johnson, who is also the director of meteorology, appointed to the now $533,000 a year job in 2016 by former environment minister Josh Frydenberg, claimed not to be able to answer basic questions about BoM processes. At one stage, he even attempted to prevent his chief operating officer from speaking.


So, you have no familiarity? Don’t you come prepared for Senate estimates?” Liberal Senator Jonathon Duniam said after asking basic questions alongside Greens Senator Barbara Pocock about how the BoM handles cost overruns and contract delivery delays.


I am shocked at the lack of capacity to answer questions of that nature even in a general sense. This is astounding.”


It was less astounding to senior Bureau of Meteorology staff who have watched a $1 billion-plus technology transformation project at the agency, called ROBUST, slide off the rails over several years. And less surprising still to the meteorologists at the forecaster, who have witnessed a centralisation of the BoM’s remaining qualified staff to a “national production” model based in Melbourne and Brisbane while being told not to change automatic local forecasts they know to be wrong.


The philosophy was ‘near enough is good enough’,” a former meteorologist says.


When the director would come around spruiking the centralisation, that was the actual quote. You know, if you’re saying it’s going to be wet and it’s super wet, that’s not life-threatening. He wants to focus on ‘high-impact events’ but they are not going to be a problem because they’ve got specialised teams.


But, for a farmer, five millimetres [of rain] as opposed to 20 millimetres is a massive big deal.”


The noticeable slip in forecast quality, especially where meteorologists have been prevented by resourcing constraints or internal policy from correcting known errors in the automatic model outputs, was first confirmed by The Saturday Paper and stems in part from a broader cultural shift at the Bureau of Meteorology. According to sources, this shift has seen a massive restructure of talent and the removal of internal voices of dissent.


You can warn them about quality but they will straight up tell you black is white and then move on, expecting you to get with the program,” one forecaster says. “And then they wonder why the wheels are falling off.”


Since Johnson came to the role eight years ago, eight members of the small executive team who report directly to him have left. The turnover in management ranks below has been much greater.


Meanwhile, forecasters – including those who work on floods or bushfires in addition to the meteorologists – have increased by just five positions. The work required of these highly qualified people, however, has become more demanding and more complex.


Poor planning and management practices at the weather agency have exacerbated resource constraints. Like the weather they forecast, these issues operate in a tightly interconnected system of feedback loops.


Take the now abandoned plan to move the national forecast grid to a three-kilometre resolution. After years of effort, the project was deemed “too hard” and shelved in late 2021, returning the nation to a six-kilometre grid in every state and territory, including Victoria and Tasmania, which were already successfully running at the sharper resolution.


At the same time, however, a new Australian Fire Danger Rating System (AFDRS) was already in development with prototypes tested by the BoM and the New South Wales Rural Fire Service. The royal commission into the 2019-20 Black Summer bushfires recommended it be fast-tracked.


Among other features, this new system was designed on a three-kilometre grid. The race to have it launched suffered as “all Graphical Forecast Editor (GFE) development resources” were dedicated to making the grid change happen, pushing back delivery timelines on the new fire-warning system.


At the other end of delivery, new delays were added. Aborting the three-kilometre grid project resulted in the need to translate BoM’s six-kilometre resolution data to the fire grid via additional “workarounds” from forecasters.


Testing of the AFDRS has now also been compromised by a six-year delay in upgrades to the Bureau of Meteorology supercomputer, Australis II.


The attitude there now seems to be ‘what’s in it for us?’ despite the fact the BoM is a big player in the Pacific region with climate change and tropical cyclones.”


Last month, BoM researchers led by Paul Gregory and Naomi Benger released a report analysing the seasonal outlooks produced as part of the new rating system.


Currently the outlooks cannot be verified in realtime as there are no sources of gridded, realtime, AFDRS observations,” the paper says.


This lack of realtime observations also prevents the Bureau from providing any post-event analysis using AFDRS. This service gap can be filled by integrating the AFDRS computational modules into the Bureau’s National Analysis System (NAS), and the realtime BARRA-2 reanalysis system.


Both of these systems are currently in trial and are awaiting the upgrading of the Bureau’s supercomputer (Australis II) for deployment.”......


Forecasters who spoke to The Saturday Paper, on condition of anonymity because they feared reprisals, have attributed at least some of their deep unhappiness at the BoM to the management culture.


One persistent issue is the decision to launch the massive Public Services Transformation project alongside the ROBUST technology investment. While the former might have had some appeal from an efficiency point of view, the parallel nature of the two vast projects created substantial backlogs and catastrophic delays.


To be honest, we have never recovered from either program,” another employee says.


We have just been crunched. And at the same time, the country has faced some of its worst ever flood and fire events one after another. I feel like the accountability has gone out the window.”


ROBUST was in part inspired by a cybersecurity incident, and its funding, provided by the former Coalition government, was labelled “cabinet in confidence” and has never been officially revealed.


At Senate estimates late last month, Andrew Johnson told the parliament his executives were accountable to him but that he did not have a performance agreement personally.


My performance agreement in a sense is the corporate plan that I table to the minister and which is tabled to the parliament, but I personally don’t have a performance agreement, and I’ve not had one since I commenced in 2016,” he said.


Under Johnson’s leadership, the Bureau of Meteorology has stopped meeting all of its World Meteorological Organization obligations, cutting back substantially on the frequency of upper atmosphere soundings.


Content now removed from the BoM website states the “benefits” in data sharing under the World Meteorological Organization are “substantial but also impose a responsibility for Australia to also contribute to the international system”.


As one meteorologist told The Saturday Paper: “The attitude there now seems to be ‘what’s in it for us?’ despite the fact the BoM is a big player in the Pacific region with climate change and tropical cyclones.”


Domestically, quality suffers in subtle but important ways. Overnight shifts on the national production desk can shrink to four people who are responsible for an entire country’s forecasting. Almost all of this is model output, but changes still need to be made and there are only so many available to perform the work.


Now even the capital city airports – a fiercely protected domain by aviation forecasters at the BoM – are subject to automation with a $3.3 million, one-year contract issued by the weather agency in the middle of May.


Last weekend, in Perth, the BoM’s Saturday night forecasts were accurate but the Sunday forecast predicted “armageddon” – despite the fact the weather had all but cleared.


And the issue that comes out early in the morning, that’s the four o’clock issue, it’s done from Melbourne,” a meteorologist says. “The forecasters come in at 6am and then have to look at what mess they’d been left with, basically, and try and make sense of it.”


Early Sunday morning, the BoM was still predicting 25 to 50 millimetres of rain in Perth, with thunderstorms that were possibly severe.


It had all gone overnight Saturday and into Sunday morning,” the forecaster says.


So by eight o’clock Sunday, you were left with a few residual showers before the forecast got changed at nine o’clock, and reflected what it should have been. They had the rainfall totals down to about seven millimetres, but the app continued to show 20 to 50 millimetres.”


Such an approach to forecasting nationally is not without consequences. Farmers in the Western Australian wheat belt were furious. Organisers of a WA Day celebration event in Burswood cancelled the festival in advance, based on forecasts that showed “even heavier rainfall” throughout the long weekend.....


The Bureau of Meteorology said in a statement that Peter Stone, who earlier this year was found by a Federal Circuit Court judge to have engaged in a deliberate attempt to mislead the court regarding a BoM workplace case, was sick during the week of Senate estimates.


This article was first published in the print edition of The Saturday Paper on June 8, 2024 as "Inside the BoM’s forecast failings".


Read the full article at:

https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/environment/2024/06/08/inside-the-boms-failings-they-will-straight-tell-you-black-white