Showing posts with label Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Show all posts

Wednesday 20 March 2024

CLIMATE CHANGE STATE OF PLAY 2024: so how hot was the surface air and sea surface on Sunday, 17 March?

 

According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) on 5 March 2024:


 Australia's climate has warmed by 1.50 ± 0.23 °C between 1910 and 2023, leading to an increase in the frequency of extreme heat events. In recent decades, there has also been a trend towards a greater proportion of rainfall from high intensity, short duration rainfall events, especially across northern Australia during the wet season. April to October rainfall has declined across southern Australia in recent decades, due to a combination of long-term natural variability and changes in atmospheric circulation caused by an increase in greenhouse gas concentrations.


The World Meteorological Organisation it its December 2023 "Significant weather and climate events in 2023" supplement noted:


Parts of northern Australia experienced major flooding during the early months of 2023. The remnants of Tropical Cyclone Ellie, which made landfall on 22 December 2022 in the western Northern Territory, brought major flooding to the Kimberley region of northern Western Australia and adjacent parts of the Northern Territory in late December and early January. Dimond Gorge received 355.6 mm on 2 January and 830.2 mm in the week from 28 December to 3 January. The Fitzroy River at Fitzroy Crossing exceeded its previous record level by more than a metre, and the main road bridge was destroyed, severing the only road links between the east Kimberley and areas further south and west for several months. A second major flood affected the far northwest of Queensland and eastern Northern Territory in early March. The Gregory River reached record levels and the town of Burketown was evacuated, although it ultimately escaped full inundation. Several Indigenous communities were also evacuated for extended periods. Later in the year, Tropical Cyclone Ilsa became the first category 5 landfall in Australia since 2009 when it crossed the coast east of Port Hedland on 13 April, in a sparsely populated area with limited impacts on land apart from the destruction of a roadhouse. However, much of Australia outside the tropics has had average to below average rainfall in 2023 to date, after widespread wet conditions in 2021 and 2022, and winter crop production is forecast to be slightly below the 10-year average, with a forecast 34% fall from record high levels in 2022. September was especially dry and was the country’s driest month on record averaged over the continent.


On 17 March 2024 this is how Australia was positioned in a global contest.


COPERNICUS Climate Pulse








According to the World Meteorological Organisation's State of Global Climate report the rate of global seal level rise has been 4.77mm a year since 2014. More than twice the rate of sea level rise occurring in the first decade of the satellite record (1993–2002). While CoastAdapt states; Consistent with global increases, sea levels have risen in Australia at an average rate of 2.1 mm/year over the past half century.


IMAGE: ABC News 20 March 2024



On 19 March 2024 BOM noted:


The annual global mean temperature for the 12 months from February 2023 to January 2024 was the highest on record, with Copernicus reporting that it was 1.52 °C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial average.



Sunday 10 March 2024

El Niño persists and although it is likely to disappear by May 2024 it may become harder to reliably predict what will follow in the future

 

Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), 5 March 2024


Neutral ENSO likely during autumn



El Niño persists, although a steady weakening trend is evident in its oceanic indicators. Climate models indicate sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific are expected to continue declining and are forecast to return to ENSO-neutral in the southern hemisphere autumn 2024.


Atmospheric indicators are mixed but are consistent with a steadily weakening El Niño. Cloudiness near the equatorial Date Line has decreased over the last fortnight, returning to the climatological average. The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is currently less than -7.0, characteristic of an El Niño state, but indicative of ENSO-neutral conditions over the 60- and 90-day periods. Temporary fluctuations of ENSO atmospheric indicators are common during summer and are not an indication of El Niño strength.


International climate models suggest the central tropical Pacific Ocean will continue to cool in the coming months, with four out of seven climate models indicating the central Pacific is likely to return to neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) levels by the end of April (i.e., neither El Niño nor La Niña), and all models indicating neutral in May. ENSO predictions made in autumn tend to have lower accuracy than predictions made at other times of the year. This means that current forecasts of the ENSO state beyond May should be used with caution.


Based on the historical record from 1900, around 50% of El Niño events have been followed by an ENSO-neutral year, and 40 to 50% have been followed by La Niña. However, global oceans have warmed significantly over the past 50 years. The oceans have been the warmest on record globally between April 2023 and January 2024. These changes may impact future predictions of ENSO events, if based solely on historical climate variability.


The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. IOD events are typically unable to form between December and April. This is because the monsoon trough shifts south over the tropical Indian Ocean changing wind patterns and preventing the IOD pattern from forming.


The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is currently neutral, as of 3 March. Forecasts indicate SAM will remain neutral over the coming fortnight.


The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently in the eastern Indian Ocean. The MJO is forecast to move into the Maritime Continent in the coming days and progress eastwards towards the Western Pacific over the coming fortnight. When the MJO is in the eastern Indian Ocean, increased cloudiness tends to occur over the eastern Indian Ocean and western parts of South East Asia. As the MJO shifts into the Maritime Continent, increased cloudiness tends to occur over parts of the far north of Australia and the islands of South East Asia, Indonesia and Papua New Guinea.


The annual global mean temperature for the 12 months from February 2023 to January 2024 was the highest on record, with Copernicus reporting that it was 1.52 °C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial average. However, this does not mean that the 1.5 °C target referred to in the Paris Agreement has been exceeded as the magnitude of global warming is assessed using multi-year averages, and this is only one 12-month period.


Australia's climate has warmed by 1.50 ± 0.23 °C between 1910 and 2023, leading to an increase in the frequency of extreme heat events. In recent decades, there has also been a trend towards a greater proportion of rainfall from high intensity, short duration rainfall events, especially across northern Australia during the wet season. April to October rainfall has declined across southern Australia in recent decades, due to a combination of long-term natural variability and changes in atmospheric circulation caused by an increase in greenhouse gas concentrations.


[my yellow highlighting]


Tuesday 20 February 2024

Australian Bureau of Meteorology partners with European Centre to ensure more eyes on Earth

 



Copernicus Sentinel Satellites providing all weather, day & night Earth-observation data to feed into a range of services for monitoring weather, land & ocean environments and supporting civil security activities. IMAGE: The European Space Agency



Australian Bureau of Meteorology, media release, 16 February 2024:


The Bureau of Meteorology (the Bureau) has signed an agreement with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) on collaboration, data and knowledge sharing and capability exchange programs.


A five-year strategic relationship agreement was signed this week by the Bureau's CEO and Director, Dr Andrew Johnson, and the Centre's Director-General, Dr Florence Rabier.


The Bureau has been invited to work with ECMWF as part of the Copernicus Climate Change Service. Copernicus is the Earth observation component of the European Union’s space programme and includes satellite and in situ observations combined with expert modelling to provide services such as the Climate Change Service implemented by ECMWF.


Under this agreement we are adding long-range global forecasts from the Bureau of Meteorology’s Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator – also known as ACCESS – to the Copernicus multi-model global ensemble. ACCESS will join other world-leading models, demonstrating the importance of scientific collaboration and of Australia’s contribution to the international community," Dr Rabier said.


This is an important ongoing partnership for ECMWF, the benefits of which will be felt worldwide in the ensemble forecasts produced. It will also lead to further improvements in weather and climate modelling and research conducted in Europe and Australia.”


ACCESS is the Bureau's extended and long-range forecast system. It is a state-of-the-art dynamical (physics-based) forecast modelling system, which uses ocean, atmosphere, ice and land observations to initiate forecasts for the season ahead.


There are eight contributors to the ECMWF Copernicus multi-system global ensemble and the addition of the Bureau's ACCESS forecasts brings this total to nine.


"This new agreement enables the Bureau to access more comprehensive data from some of the world’s best forecast models to support and improve its own services," Dr Johnson said.


"It also provides more opportunities for joint research projects exploring weather and climate impacts in the southern hemisphere and around the globe."


"This is a huge accomplishment for the Bureau and Australia. The benefits of this partnership will lead to future improvements in Australian weather and climate products and services for the benefit of the Australian community."


The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is an independent intergovernmental organisation supported by 35 states. It is both a research institute and a 24/7 operational service, producing and disseminating numerical weather predictions to its Member States. The ECMWF was established in 1975 and its purpose – then as now – was to pool Europe's meteorological resources to produce accurate climate data and medium-range forecasts - ECMWF |Advancing global NWP through international collaboration. It implements the Copernicus Climate Change Service and the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service on behalf of the European Commission. Homepage | Copernicus.


The Bureau of Meteorology is Australia's national weather, climate, oceans, water and space weather agency. Its expertise and services assist Australians in dealing with the harsh realities of their natural environment, including drought, floods, fires, storms, tsunami and tropical cyclones. Through regular forecasts, warnings, monitoring and advice spanning the Australian region and Antarctic territory, the Bureau provides one of the most fundamental and widely used services of government - Australia's official weather forecasts & weather radar - Bureau of Meteorology (bom.gov.au)


Saturday 3 February 2024

Saturday's Mood: HOT!


Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Northern Rivers Forecast, issued at 4:30 pm EDT on Friday 2 February 2024:


Weather Situation

A high pressure system over the Bight extends a ridge into southern and western New South Wales today, while a trough of low pressure lies over the northeast. This trough will decay early Saturday as the high moves to the Tasman Sea, although a new trough is forecast to develop in the west during the weekend. This pattern will direct hot air from central Australia across New South Wales, peaking in many areas during Sunday. The remnants of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Kirrily look set to be drawn into the inland trough during Monday, potentially bringing significant rain to some western areas, before the whole system weakens and shifts to the state's east on Tuesday.


Heatwave Situation for 3 days starting Saturday 3rd February 2024 

Click on image to enlarge

NOTE: Heatwave mapping for this cycle commenced Wednesday 31 January 2024.


Sunday 12 November 2023

El Niño continues and its warming effect predicted to last though to the early months of the southern hemisphere Autumn


Bureau of Meteorology, 08.11.23


Bureau of Meteorology, Climate Diver Update Summary, by email, 8 November 2023:


El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole continue


  • El Niño continues in the tropical Pacific. Climate model forecasts indicate some further warming of the central to eastern Pacific is likely, with SSTs remaining above El Niño thresholds into the early southern hemisphere autumn 2024.


  • The positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event persists. All models indicate that this positive IOD will likely continue into early December.


  • The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index is currently positive with forecasts indicating it will return to neutral in the coming days.


  • The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently weak. Approximately half of international climate models suggest the MJO will strengthen and move eastwards across the western Pacific later this week. When the MJO is in the western Pacific, there is an increased chance of showers and rain over northern parts of the NT and Queensland.


  • Global warming continues to influence Australian and global climate. Global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were highest on record for their respective months during April to October.


Tuesday 19 September 2023

The north-east NSW coastal fringe started the week with reasonable land & sea temperatures and only 6 bush & grass fires at advice level


Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), 18 September 2023: 

Air-Surface Temperature 4pm Monday 18 September 2023
MAP: BOM






Between 6am to 4pm Monday 18 September 2023 temperatures along the coastal fringe of north-east NSW ranged from 5.5°C to 26.7°C as the day progressed.


Sea Surface Temperatures & Current Direction 
4pm Monday 18 September 2023
MAP: BOM




The East Australian Current was still bringing waters close to shore which were a comfortable 20-21°C at 4pm Monday 18 September 2023.


This may not last long.....


Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Warmer than median October to December days and nights for almost all of Australia

Issued: 14 September 2023


For October to December, above median maximum temperatures are very likely (greater than 80% chance) for almost all of Australia.

For October to December, most of Australia is at least 3 times likely to experience unusually high maximum temperatures, with chances increasing to more than 4 times likely for most of western and central WA, and parts of central and south-eastern Australia. Unusually high maximum temperatures equate to the warmest 20% of October to December periods from 1981 to 2018.

For October to December, minimum temperatures are very likely (greater than 80% chance) for almost all of Australia apart from a small area of Queensland's North Tropical Coast.

For October to December, broad areas of Australia are at least 2.5 times likely to experience unusually high minimum temperatures, with chances increasing to more than four times likely for parts of central WA, southern Queensland, and north-east NSW. Unusually high minimum temperatures equate to the warmest 20% of October to December periods from 1981 to 2018.

Past accuracy of the October to December long-range forecast for chance of above median maximum temperatures has been high to very high across all of Australia. For minimum temperatures, accuracy is high to very high for most of Australia, dropping to low to moderate for parts of north-western Australia.


Monday 17 July 2023

Climate Change State of Play in 2023: as seen from Yamba, Australia and the rest of the world

 

Yamba (pop. est. 6,388) at the mouth of the Clarence River estuary on the NSW far north coast, has an official weather station ID: 058012 which has been recording observations since May 1877 from a headline on the northside of the town.


What this relatively long history, of measuring air temperature, humidity levels, wind direction & velocity along with rainfall, is currently indicating is that from January to June 2023 monthly temperatures have been hotter than the 145 year averages.


While over the same period rainfall is so far below monthly averages that by June - the first month of Winter - rainfall was est. 125-127mm below the 145 year average for that month and occurred across only 7 of the 30 June days.


Yamba, like much of the Clarence Valley and 23.3% of the North Coast has been classified as Drought Affected on the NSW DPI Combined Drought Indicator (CDI).


NSW DPI CDI mapping as of 12 July 2023














Reading the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) webpages, it is looking increasingly likely that an El Niño event will be declared in the southern hemisphere before September 2023.


It seems that little Yamba and Australia are marching in step with the rest of the world.......


Washington Post, 13 July 2023:


The world is hotter than it’s been in thousands of years, and it’s as if every alarm bell on Earth were ringing.


The warnings are echoing through the drenched mountains of Vermont, where two months of rain just fell in only two days. India and Japan were deluged by extreme flooding.


They’re blaring from the scorching streets of Texas, Florida, Spain and China, with a severe heat wave also building in Phoenix and the Southwest in coming days.


They’re burbling up from the oceans, where temperatures have surged to levels considered “beyond extreme.”


And they’re showing up in unprecedented, still-burning wildfires in Canada that have sent plumes of dangerous smoke into the United States.


Scientists say there is no question that this cacophony was caused by climate change — or that it will continue to intensify as the planet warms. Research shows that human greenhouse gas emissions, particularly from burning fossil fuels, have raised Earth’s temperature by about 1.2 degrees Celsius (2.2 Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels. Unless humanity radically transforms the way people travel, generate energy and produce food, the global average temperature is on track to increase by more than 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 Fahrenheit), according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change — unleashing catastrophes that will make this year’s disasters seem mild.


The only question, scientists say, is when the alarms will finally be loud enough to make people wake up.


This is not the new normal,” said Friederike Otto, a climate scientist at Imperial College London. “We don’t know what the new normal is. The new normal will be what it is once we do stop burning fossil fuels … and we’re nowhere near doing that.”….


Read the full article here.


The Sydney Morning Herald, 14 July 2023, p 22:


Natural disasters and extreme weather are thrashing the northern hemisphere as temperature records rapidly topple. Floods are overwhelming parts of Asia and Europe, fires are ravaging the US, sea surface temperatures off Europe are the hottest on record and the global average temperature has been at a record high four times in the past week.


Drought is sapping northern parts of China and heatwaves are paralysing cities at the same time deadly floods displace thousands in the south. It's just a taste of what's to come as climate change worsens.


Marine heatwaves


The ingredients for the catastrophic weather events in the northern hemisphere have been brewing in global oceans for months. In the lead-up to Earth's hottest week in recorded history, between July 3 and 9 this year, 40 per cent of the world's oceans were stewing through severe marine heatwaves.


"A big part of the fact that we've got these records occurring is because the oceans are so warm," said marine heatwave expert Associate Professor Alex Sen Gupta from UNSW's Climate Change Research Centre. "It means it's very likely that this is going to be the warmest year on record."


Much of the North Atlantic suffered the most extreme marine heatwaves in history. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration called a Category 5 (beyond extreme) heatwave in waters west of Ireland as temperatures climbed 5 degrees above the June average.


The record marine heat in the Atlantic spurred the formation of Tropical Storm Bret, the most eastward ever tropical storm this early in the year. Bret churned westward and swept through the Caribbean, damaging water infrastructure in Barbados and shuttering schools in St Lucia.


The ocean heatwaves have a high chance of holding strong for months, potentially contributing to bursts of damaging rain or intensifying heatwaves in Britain and Europe; one of either extremes. The warm water will mix deeper down into the ocean and have global effects - including on Arctic sea ice - for months.


The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts that by September, 50 per cent of the world's oceans could be experiencing marine heatwaves. The normal global rate is 10 per cent.


Weatherzone meteorologist Yoska Hernandez said the sea surface temperatures off Australia are the warmest on record, about 0.3 to 0.5 degrees warmer than last year.


Warm oceans are particularly concerning because they increase moisture in the atmosphere, which can lead to more intense rain events. In the past two weeks, major floods have swept across the US, China, Japan, Europe and Pakistan. Hernandez said the drivers behind the rain events were all separate, but all occurred in the context of climate change.


For example, the Pakistan event has been the result of seasonal monsoonal rains, with as much as six months' of rain falling in 18 hours over some cities.


The floods in the north of America have been driven by an intense front moving over the region, dumping a lot of rain. There's a lot of moisture in the atmosphere driven by the warming ocean temperatures.


In Spain, a large thunderstorm has resulted in flash flooding across Zaragoza in the country's northeast - with about 64mm falling over some parts in a few hours. This is almost the average rainfall during summer for the country.


Last week, there were four days in which Earth's average temperature reached record highs. The global average temperature hit 17.2 degrees on Thursday, July 6, surpassing the 17.18-degree record set on July 4 and equalled on July 5, according to data from the University of Maine's Climate Reanalyser. The previous record of 17.01 degrees was set on Monday, July 3.


The data relies on satellite information and computer simulations to measure the world's condition. It is, however, worth noting NOAA said it could not yet validate the data but that the agency recognised the warm period was due to climate change.


"Combined with El Niño and hot summer conditions, we're seeing record warm surface temperatures being recorded at many locations across the globe," the agency said last week.


The World Meteorological Organisation, a specialised agency of the UN, declared the El Niño event last week. It's one of the most important drivers of unusual weather over the entire globe. In the southern hemisphere, El Niño tends to have a drying effect, but in the northern hemisphere it can increase rainfall.


For most of Australia, El Niño brings dry weather, increasing bushfire risk. But in other parts of the world it leads to wetter conditions, as in southern America.


The Bureau of Meteorology is yet to formally declare an El Niño event, but is expected to do so in the coming weeks. The agency has different criteria than other international weather agencies.


Sen Gupta said it was unusual so many weather events associated with El Niño, including fires and marine heatwaves, were striking before the weather system had even formed (the system has a 90 per cent chance of fully taking hold in the second half of the year).


Countries including Australia were warned to prepare for bad fire seasons. North America is currently in the midst of its most catastrophic fire season ever, which has seen nearly 4000 fires tear across Canada. Smoke spewed from the incineration of 9.5 million hectares and caused the worst air pollution in large swathes of the US in recorded history, draping cities such as New York in orange clouds of smog last month.


Last week in Beijing, as heat records topple across Asia, the government ordered a pause in outdoor work as the city hit a 10-day streak of days above 35 degrees, at the same time floods carried off cars and destroyed buildings, killing at least a dozen people and displaced thousands more in central and southern China.


Pinpointing the effect of climate change on one weather event is a difficult science, but a network of global researchers from the World Weather Attribution zeroed in on a four-day heatwave that killed 13 people. They concluded that human-induced climate change made the deadly heat 30 times more likely. (Another 96 people died from heat-related conditions in India in June.)


Tipping point


It's a question we keep coming back to as records tumble.


Dr Nandini Ramesh, a senior research scientist at CSIRO Data61, said it's important to understand what a tipping point is.


"A tipping point is when you push something until it can't be undone and it exacerbates further warming. An example is the west Antarctic ice sheet collapsing, which would cause irreversible effects on ocean circulation and climate," she said…..


"The ocean will [have] almost constant marine heat waves if we keep on pumping carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. We have to continually update what we class as a marine heatwave or, or go to more extreme definitions."


More than 61,000 people died because of last year's brutal summer heat waves across Europe, according to a study in the journal Nature Medicine. The findings suggest that two decades of efforts in Europe to adapt to a hotter world have failed to keep up with the pace of global warming. Extreme heat had been expected that summer based on how much the planet had warmed in the past decade, the report notes. This trend is likely to continue.


"Having a warmer atmosphere makes both intense rain and heat waves worse," Ramesh said. "It will push us into temperatures that are dangerous to the human body."


Tuesday 21 March 2023

March 2023 is shaping up to be a record heat month for NSW

 


According to ABC News New South Wales is on track to hit hottest March on record after coolest summer in 11 years.


What's behind the March heatwaves?


The reason autumn is doing its best interpretation of summer is complex.


It is essentially a combination of factors playing out simultaneously, including:


  • La Niña's demise combined with a break in the monsoon has allowed a lengthy stretch of sunny skies to generate a broad mass of hot air over northern and central Australia


  • The westerly winds which circumnavigate Antarctica have expanded during the past few weeks, extending to our southern latitudes and dragging the hot interior air across NSW.


  • Water temperatures in the Tasman Sea are at nearly 27C, theoretically warm enough to support a tropical cyclone. This means that, even when winds are onshore, it is still warmer than normal.


The most surprising aspect is the westerlies, which have spent the past few warm seasons banished to the Southern Ocean.


The recent absence of westerly winds was a critical factor in Sydney's record wet 2022, a year dominated by moist easterly winds and rain….


It is definitely unseasonably warm in Yamba – on land and in the ocean. The hottest day to date this month was Saturday 18th March which was a day where minimum air temperature was 22.6°C and maximum air temp 34.4°C, with a relative humidity of 93% at 9am.


By comparison March 2022 saw highest minimum and maximum air temperatures at a milder 22.6°C and 29.6°C respectively, with a relative humidity of 97% at 9am.


According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology the average daytime air temperature in the month of March for the 146 years between 1877 to 2023 was minimum 19.3°C and maximum 26.1°C, with a relative humidity of 80% at 9am.



Wednesday 21 December 2022

La Niña continues into the Australian Summer

 

Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Climate Driver Update, 20 Dec 2022:



  • La Niña continues in the tropical Pacific, but some indicators show signs of declining strength. La Niña typically increases the chance of above average rainfall for northern and eastern Australia during summer. Models suggest that ocean temperatures may reach ENSO-neutral levels during January or February 2023, and remain at neutral levels until at least April. Model accuracy for lead times greater than four months is generally lower at this time of year than at other times, so outlooks beyond April should be viewed with caution.


  • The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral and has little influence on Australian climate while the monsoon trough is in the southern hemisphere (typically December to April).


  • The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is in a positive phase and is likely to be neutral to positive through January and February. During summer, a positive SAM increases the chance of above average rainfall for parts of eastern Australia and below average rainfall for western Tasmania.


  • The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is expected to move across the Maritime Continent and Western Pacific regions over the coming fortnight, which may lead to increased westerly flow and rainfall across parts of northern Australia. The influence of the MJO may lead to the onset of the Australian monsoon during this time, while also increasing the risk of tropical low and cyclone formation across the region.


  • Sea surface temperatures remain warmer than average in the western Pacific, much of the Maritime Continent, and around northern Australia, particularly in the Coral Sea. Warmer Australian waters, especially in the tropics, can result in greater evaporation, humidity, cloudiness, and rainfall.


  • Climate change continues to influence Australian and global climates. Australia's climate has warmed by around 1.47 °C in the period 1910–2021. There has also been a trend towards a greater proportion of rainfall from high intensity short duration rainfall events, especially across northern Australia.


Next update expected by 3 January 2022


Sunday 27 November 2022

CSIRO-BOM State of the Climate 2022 report and what it says about the World, Australia & the NSW Coastal Zone


“There are no surprises here and the story hasn’t changed. It’s happening, it’s serious and we need to do something about it.” [CSIRO Ocean & Atmosphere Business Unit, Research Director at Climate Science Centre, Dr. Jaclyn Brown, The Guardian, 23 November 2022]


Yes, the story hasn't changed. However, the details are becoming clearer as to how, when and to what degree there will be disruption to Australian society, the national economy and food security  along with increasing risks to the health, safety and well being of the entire population  before national collapse occurs.


Once every two years the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) in partnership with the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) produce a State of the Climate report.


The current 2022 report is the seventh report in the series. Previous reports can be found here.


The key points in State of the Climate 2022 are as follows:


Australia


  • Australia’s climate has warmed by an average of 1.47 ± 0.24 °C since national records began in 1910.

  • Sea surface temperatures have increased by an average of 1.05 °C since 1900. This has led to an increase in the frequency of extreme heat events over land and sea.

  • There has been a decline of around 15 per cent in April to October rainfall in the southwest of Australia since 1970. Across the same region, May to July rainfall has seen the largest decrease, by around 19 per cent since 1970.

  • In the south-east of Australia, there has been a decrease of around 10 per cent in April to October rainfall since the late 1990s.

  • There has been a decrease in streamflow at most gauges across Australia since 1975.

  • Rainfall and streamflow have increased across parts of northern Australia since the 1970s.

  • There has been an increase in extreme fire weather, and a longer fire season, across large parts of the country since the 1950s.

  • There has been a decrease in the number of tropical cyclones observed in the Australian region.

  • Snow depth, snow cover and number of snow days have decreased in alpine regions since the late 1950s.

  • Oceans around Australia are acidifying and have warmed by more than 1 °C since 1900, contributing to longer and more frequent marine heatwaves.

  • Sea levels are rising around Australia, including more frequent extremes that are increasing the risk of inundation and damage to coastal infrastructure and communities.














Global


  • Concentrations of all the major long-lived greenhouse gases in the atmosphere continue to increase, with global annual mean carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations reaching 414.4 parts per million (ppm) in 2021 and the CO2 equivalent (CO2-e) of all greenhouse gases reaching 516 ppm. These are the highest levels on Earth in at least two million years.

  • The decline in global fossil fuel emissions of CO2 in 2020 associated with the COVID-19 pandemic will have a negligible impact on climate change. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations continue to rise, and fossil fuel CO2 emissions, the principal driver of this growth, were back to near pre-pandemic levels in 2021.

  • The rate of accumulation of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) (both greenhouse gases) in the atmosphere increased considerably during 2020 and 2021.

  • Globally averaged air temperature at the Earth’s surface has warmed by over 1 °C since reliable records began in 1850. Each decade since 1980 has been warmer than the last, with 2011–20 being around 0.2 °C warmer than 2001–10.

  • The world’s oceans, especially in the Southern Hemisphere, have taken up 91 per cent of the extra energy stored by the planet (as heat) as a result of enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations.

  • More than half of all CO2 emissions from human activities are absorbed by land and ocean sinks, which act to slow the rate of increase in atmospheric CO2.

  • Global mean sea levels have risen by around 25 cm since 1880 and continue to rise at an accelerating rate.













Future


In the coming decades, Australia will experience ongoing changes to its weather and climate. Australia is projected to experience:

  • Continued increase in air temperatures, more heat extremes and fewer cold extremes.

  • Continued decrease, on average, in cool season rainfall across many regions of southern and eastern Australia, which will likely lead to more time in drought, but with ongoing climate variability that will give rise to short-duration heavy-rainfall events at a range of timescales.

  • Continued increase in the number of dangerous fire weather days and a longer fire season for southern and eastern Australia.

  • Further sea level rise and continued warming and acidification of the oceans around Australia.

  • Increased and longer-lasting marine heatwaves that will affect marine environments, such as kelp forests, and increase the likelihood of more frequent and severe bleaching events in coral reefs around Australia, including the Great Barrier Reef and Ningaloo Reef.

  • Fewer tropical cyclones, but a greater proportion is projected to be of high intensity, with large variations from year to year.

  • Reduced average snow depth in alpine regions, but with variations from year to year.















On a more local level for many North Coast Voices readers........


KEY MESSAGES FOR THE NSW COASTAL ZONE IN 2030     (8 years into the future)


  • Average temperatures will continue to increase in all seasons (very high confidence).

  • More hot days and warm spells are projected with very high confidence. Fewer frosts are projected with high confidence.

  • Decreases in winter rainfall are projected with medium confidence. Other changes are possible but unclear.

  • Increased intensity of extreme rainfall events is projected, with high confidence.

  • Mean sea level will continue to rise and height of extreme sea-level events will also increase (very high confidence).

  • A harsher fire-weather climate in the future (high confidence).

  • On annual and decadal basis, natural variability in the climate system can act to either mask or enhance any long-term human induced trend, particularly in the next 20 years and for rainfall. 



The full State of the Climate 2022 biennial report can be read and downloaded at:


http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/2022/documents/2022-state-of-the-climate-web.pdf. - Presentation Style A


https://www.csiro.au/en/research/environmental-impacts/climate-change/state-of-the-climate - Presentation Style B


Turning to the next three months across Australia.......


Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Long-range forecast overview

Issued: 24 November 2022


December to February rainfall is likely (greater than 60% chance) to be above median for the Queensland coast, north coastal and southern New South Wales, all of Victoria, south-eastern South Australia and eastern Tasmania. Below median rainfall is likely for parts of Western Australia.


December to February maximum temperatures are likely (greater than 60% chance) to be warmer than median for Tasmania, and most of northern and western Australia. Below median temperatures are likely for south-eastern parts of Queensland, central and eastern New South Wales, parts of Victoria and the south coast of Western Australia.


December to February minimum temperatures are likely to very likely (greater than 60% to greater than 80% chance) to be warmer than median for most of western, northern and south-east Australia. Below median temperatures are likely for parts of north-east New South Wales.


This wet outlook over northern and eastern Australia is consistent with several climate drivers, including La Niña, a weakened negative Indian Ocean Dipole event, a positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode, and record warm waters around Australia. A Madden–Julian Oscillation pulse is strengthening as it moves into the Western Pacific region, which may also contribute to wetter conditions for parts of north-eastern Australia.

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