With only 28 days left of Summer and Autumn on its way, how hot are the days & nights likely be for the next three months?

On Thursday 30 January 2025 Australia was a day away from finishing the end of its second month of Summer and there were heatwave warnings in Western Australia, Northern Territory, Queensland, New South Wales, as well as the Australian Capital Territory.

With just one month of Summer left, here are the forecast summaries for February to April 2025.

AustralianBureau of Meteorology (BOM), 30 January 2025:

Long-range forecast overview

The long-range forecast for February to April shows:

• above average rainfall is likely for northern Australia and much of the south, with an increased chance of unusually high rainfall for much of these regions

• warmer than average days are likely across much of southern and eastern Australia

• warmer than average nights are very likely across Australia, with an increased chance of unusually high overnight temperatures nationwide.

Max temperature - The chance of above median max temperature for February to April

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Rainfall—Summary

Rainfall likely to be above average for much of Australia

February to April

• Rainfall is likely (60 to 80% chance) to be above average across northern Australia and much of the south, with a greater than 80% chance of above average rainfall in parts of northern and central Queensland, along the northern WA coastline, and parts of the NT.

• For parts of southern WA and scattered parts of south-east Australia, rainfall is likely to be in the typical range for February to April.

• There is an increased chance of unusually high rainfall¹ for much of northern and eastern Australia, with highest chances - more than 3 times the usual chance - across parts of northern Queensland.

1 Unusually high rainfall is that in the highest 20% of February to April rainfall observations from 1981 to 2018.

Rainfall - Totals that have a 75% chance of occurring for February to April

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BOM Drought: Rainfall deficiencies and water availability, 9 January 2025:

Below average soil moisture in parts of the southern and eastern mainland

Map of root-zone soil moisture for the previous month

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December soil moisture was below to very much below average (in the lowest 10% of Decembers since 1900) in:

• the south of Western Australia excluding the far south-west and isolated pockets of northern Western Australia

• south-west South Australia and parts of the Eyre Peninsula extending to the greater Adelaide region

• much of southern Victoria, except the far south-west

• isolated pockets of eastern New South Wales

• isolated inland areas across Queensland and the Northern Territory.

December rainfall eased the severity and extent of long-term soil moisture deficiencies in the south-east, including most of Victoria, south-east New South Wales and Tasmania. Soil moisture deficiencies also eased in northern Queensland. Root-zone soil moisture across inland and western Australia is typically low at this time of year and the differences between above and below average can be relatively small.

Low soil moisture for long periods of time affects crop growth and can be an indicator of agricultural drought.

NSW DPI Interactive Combined Drought Indicator map of NSW as at 26.01.25

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