Cartoons of the Week

Cathy Wilcox

Alan Moir

Matt Golding

David Pope

David Rowe

 

So you think a minority government is the answer?

 

In May 2022 the first-time Albanese Labor Government secured seventy-seven seats in a House of Representatives having 151 members.

With a floor majority of two that subsequently rose to four majority after the April 2023 Aston by-election win.

After boundary adjustments by the Australian Electoral Commission this year redistribution will reduce House numbers from 151 to 150, so seventy-six will remain the magic number for an absolute majority at the 2025 federal general election.

For the last twelve months I have noticed quite a bit of chatter discussing the supposed benefits of voting to reduce the Albanese Government to a minority federal government at the next general election.

For some reason there appears to be a view forming that a minority government would inevitably deliver positive and lasting environmental, social & economic policy change with the aid of The Greens & Independents.

Nothing is set in stone and, given how volatile the global climate and international politics are in 2024 and predicted to be going forward, perhaps it's time for a gentle reminder of what happens to duly elected governments during periods of widespread uncertainty.

One punter's view of Australia by way of example.....

There have been 47 Australian Parliaments since 1901.

From 1901 to 1910 federal elections had resulted in what were essentially minority governments and the prime ministership changed hands six times across those first three Australian Parliaments.

The Cook Free Trade and Liberal Association Government, with a one seat majority, was first federal government in Australia that did not even last one full term. It went for 1 year & 55 days from July 1913 to September 1914 when it lost a double dissolution election. Britain and her dominions declared war on Germany & her allies on 4 August 2014.

The Scullin Labor Government was the second and last federal government that did not last one full term. It went for 2 years & 79 days from October 1929 to January 1932 after failing to win a second term. The Wall Street Crash which triggered the decade long Great Depression occurred on 28 October 1929 at the very beginning of this Labor Government's term.

During the terms in office of five consecutive Coalition prime ministers over 23 straight years from December 1949 to December 1972 there was one major issue which increasingly exercised Australian society between 1962 to 1972—the Viet Nam War and Australia's active participation in progressing that war.

Opposition to that war was a significant factor in the Whitlam Labor Government winning the 1972 federal election by 67 seats (with a positive two-party-preferred swing of 2.50%) to the Coalition's 58 seats (with an adverse two-party-preferred swing of 2.50%). The new government inherited a Senate where both Labor and the Coalition held 26 seats each, the Democratic Labor Party 5 seats & an Independent 1 seat.

In May 1974 the first-term Whitlam Government called a double dissolution federal election on the basis that a hostile Senate had unreasonably obstructed the first term government by returned 6 Bills to the House, in addition to the matter of another 21 bills covering government promises taken to the 1972 general election which been rejected, stood aside or deferred by the Senate.

After which the Labor Party remained in government in the House of Representatives with 66 seats and a positive two-party-preferred swing of 1.00%, to the Coalition's 61 seats and an adverse two-party-preferred swing of 1.00%.

In the Senate both Labor and the Coalition held 29 seats with the balance of power held by one Independent & one Liberal Movement senator who on past history would vote with the Coalition.

After the election, the six Bills that had formed the basis of the double dissolution – the Commonwealth Electoral Bill (No. 2) 1973, the Senate (Representation of Territories) Bill 1973, the Representation Bill 1973, the Health Insurance Commission Bill 1973, the Health Insurance Bill 1973, and the Petroleum and Minerals Authority Bill 1973 – were passed at a historic joint sitting of both houses of parliament.

In what can only be described as a silent coup encouraged by the Liberal & Nationals political parties, big business and Buckingham Palace, in October 1975 the Coalition Opposition deferred voting on supply bills in the Senate in an attempt to force Whitlam to call yet another election for both the Senate and the House of Representatives. In response, Mr Whitlam decided to ask the Governor-General to call a half-Senate election to resolve the situation. Instead the Whitlam Government was pre-emptively dismissed by the Governor-General on 11 November 1975 after two years & 341 days.

Malcolm Fraser was invited to form government and the Coalition won the subsequent 1975 federal election 91 House of  Representative seats to Labor's 36 seats. This appears to be the highest majority ever held by an Australian federal government.

The Australian Labor Party did not form federal government again for almost another eight years when it again held government for thirteen years before the Coalition regained government in 1996 and with John Howard as prime minister held it for 11 years & 269 days until December 2007.

According to political pundits almost every first-term government since the World War Two has suffered an adverse two-party-preferred swing at the next election.

In the case of the federal Rudd-Gillard-Rudd Labor Government which began life on 24 November 2007 by winning 83 of the 150 seats with a two-party-preferred positive swing of 5.4 % it all looked like smooth sailing. The Liberal Party having only won 55 seats, the National Party 10, and Independents 2.

However by June 2010 the accepted story is that Prime Minister Kevin Rudd had lost the confidence of the national electorate after the federal government appeared to lose its way on a number of issues (including Senate rejection of its Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme in November 2009) and walked away from a strong policy push for climate change mitigation measures following the collapse of UN COP climate summit in Copenhagen in December 2009. The Labor parliamentary party replaced him with the Deputy Prime Minister Julia Gillard in June 2010.

Following the 21 August 2010 federal election, the Australian Labor Party (with an adverse two-party-preferred swing of 2.58%) won 72 seats, the Coalition 72, Independent Nationals 1, Greens 1 & Independents 4.

With the support of the Greens member (Bandt) and three of the Independents (Wilkie, Windsor and Oakeshott), Prime Minister Julia Gillard was able to form a minority government which could muster 76 votes to 74 in the House of Representatives.

Under relentless disruptive attack from the Abbott-led Coalition Opposition that number fluctuated over the course of the next 3 years & 16 days (going as low as 75 to 73), when a last minute change of party leadership meant that Kevin Rudd had the dubious honour of leading that Labor federal government to defeat in September 2013 winning only 55 of the 150 House of Representative seats (its lowest primary vote in 100 years) with an adverse two party preferred swing of 3.61% and, the Coalition winning government with 90 seats.

From 2010 to 2013 the Gillard Labor Government had passed a range of bills including the:

> two National Broadband Network acts in 2011 (significantly & adversely altered by subsequent Coalition governments);

> Clean Energy Act 2011 (a carbon emissions trading scheme repealed by Abbott Coalition Government);

> Tobacco Plain Packaging Act 2011;

> Mineral Resources Rent Tax 2012 (repealed by Abbott Coalition Government);

> National Disability Insurance Scheme Act 2013 (rolled out by successive Coalition governments); and

> The National School Reform Agreement (passed by Senate on Gillard's last day as prime minister. Under successive Coalition Governments & current Labor Government has never lived up to expectations).

Results of the 2024 Clarence Valley Council local government election declared on Wednesday 2nd October

 

In the case of the Clarence Valley Local Government Area 35,061 eligible residents, out of a possible 41,897 residential and non-residential electors enrolled in this area on 5 August 2024, cast their ballots for the nine vacated councillor positions. A total of 9.20% of all ballots cast were deemed Informal and excluded from the count.

Listed in the order in which they reached the required quota or otherwise became eligible, the following nine candidates were declared elected on 2 October 2024:

Cristie YAGER (IND) - elected at the first count

Peter JOHNSTONE (IND) - elected at the first count. Served on the previous council

Greg CLANCY (GRN) - elected at the second count. Served on the previous council

Ray SMITH (IND) - elected at the ninth count

Allison WHAITES (IND) - elected at the eleventh count. Served on the previous council

Shane CAUSLEY - elected at the eleventh count

Lynne CAIRNS (IND) - elected at the fourteenth count

Debrah NOVAK (IND) - elected at the fourteenth count. Served on the previous council

Karen TOMS (IND) - elected at the sixteenth count. Served on the previous council.

The gender breakdown of the new council is five females to four males and the returning councillor breakdown is five to four.

The newly elected Clarence Valley councillors are expected to begin a training bloc re Council’s policies and procedures, Code of Conduct and Code of Meeting Practice for three days between 4 and 9 October.

Councillors will vote to install a mayor for the next two years at the 17 October first council meeting of this new term.

 

Hopefully Ray Smith will resist the urge to put his name forward for mayor. Being a former general manager of Grafton City Council is rather a poor recommendation in my opinion.

STATE OF PLAY AUSTRALIA 2024: the numbers tell us households around the country are wealthier than they were a year ago so why doesn't it feel that way for so many people?

  

According to Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data released 26 September 2024:

> Australian household wealth rose for the seventh consecutive quarter (up 1.5 per cent or $250 billion) in June 2024;

> Total household wealth in that quarter was $16.5 trillion which was 9.3 per cent ($1.4 trillion) higher than a year ago;

> This growth in household wealth was also supported by superannuation assets, which rose moderately by 0.3 per cent ($13.7 billion);

> Households' investment increased by $3.8b to $53.3b, driven by an increase in gross fixed capital formation in June quarter 2024 and non-financial assets owned by households increased by 2.2% ($258.5b), driven by a $216.0b rise in residential land and dwellings; 

>While on the downside household liabilities increased by 1.9% ($58.3b), with a $35.6b rise in housing loans and a $0.5b fall in short term loans.

When it came to cost of living there was some welcome news from the ABS head of “Annual inflation was 2.7 per cent in August, down from 3.5 per cent in July, and is the lowest reading since August 2021.”

ABS All groups monthly CPI indicator, annual movement (%)

ABS Grocery products, annual movement (%)

While the Cost Price Index showed a continued downward trend, petrol along with fruit & veg remained volatile and manufactured foods like tea, coffee, frozen prepared meals & health supplements remained stubbornly resistant to lowered prices. Although while the price of a bag of groceries may fluctuate, rental costs rose 6 per cent in the year to August.

Offsetting this was the ABS announcement in its media release of 25 September 2024 that:

Electricity fell 17.9 per cent in the 12 months to August, which is the largest annual fall since the electricity series started in the early 1980s.

“Commonwealth Government and State Government rebates led to a 14.6 per cent fall in electricity prices in the month of August, which followed a 6.4 per cent fall in July. Excluding the rebates, electricity prices would have risen 0.1 per cent in August and 0.9 per cent in July,” Ms Marquardt said.

ABS Electricity, Australia, monthly and annual movement (%)

Countering the residential electricity rebates has been the rollout of Term of Use Tariffs in Qld, NSW & SA by the retail energy supply industry - involving three different residential tariff rates over each 24 hour cycle for general use electricity in addition to a fixed price tariff for heating water.

ABC News, 1 October 2024

Industry lobby group, the Australian Energy Council has called for a halt to the roll out of Time Of Use and Demand Use residential power tariffs.

 After employing what has to be biggest industry-wide suite of deceptive practices to arbitrarily impose punitive price increases, it seems energy retailers are now in a deep public relations hole.

Faced with the consumer backlash as the reality of 'power bill shock' hits households, energy retailers have tried to distance themselves from the reforms, instead blaming regulators and poles-and-wires companies. In their turn the equally deceptive poles-and-wires companies are pointing the finger of blame at the energy retailers for not directly informing their customers about changes to how residential electricity costs are calculated.

What all those numbers do not say....

The Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research has updated the poverty line for Australia to the March quarter 2024. Inclusive of housing costs, the poverty line [a relative measure of poverty] is $1145.61 per week for a family comprising two adults, one of whom is working, and two dependent children. This is an increase of $4.78 from the poverty line for the previous quarter (Dec 2023).

Based on a 2024 Bank West Curtin Economics Institute assessment of child poverty in Australia it is possible that at least one in six couple with children households would meet that degree of comparative poverty, with another one in twenty living in significant poverty and one in forty in extreme poverty.

An est. 13.4% of the Australian population lived below the poverty line in 2019-2020. There is no indication that the situation has markedly improved in 2024. 

ROBODEBT STATE OF PLAY IN SEPT 2024: Class Action Settlement Appeal lodged in Federal Court makes new claims of misfeasance in public office against officials who knew Robodebt Scheme was unlawful

Gordon Legal announcement of 24 September 2024:

Appeal of the Robodebt Class Action settlement – further compensationsought for Robodebt victims

The class action settlement commenced June 2021.

The Robodebt Royal Commission delivered its report in July 2023.

The Royal Commission uncovered new evidence that some of the senior public servants who ran Robodebt knew it was unlawful, but they went ahead anyway.

That evidence was not made available during the class action. The applicants in the class action did not know about this evidence prior to the class action being settled.

The Commonwealth did not hand over that information. In many cases, the Commonwealth claimed that the information was ‘privileged’. However, the Commonwealth could not rely on privilege claims when responding to the Royal Commission. This is how the new evidence came out.

The appeal will try to bring the new evidence before the Court, to make claims for further compensation.

The group members are trying to have the original settlement set aside, so that new claims can be brought. Those new claims include that the senior public servants who administered Robodebt engaged in ‘misfeasance in public office’.

These are serious allegations to make, but we strongly believe these claims should be made, based on the new evidence.

There are several complicated legal steps that will need be completed before that new evidence can be put before the Court.

If the Court allows the appeal, the class action will be reopened to hear these new claims.

It may take several months before there is an outcome. We will provide updates on our website as the appeal progresses.

If you are a group member in the class action, you don’t need to do anything further at this stage.

You can read more about the original settlement of the Robodebt Class Action below.

https://gordonlegal.com.au/robodebt-class-action/

Timeline

> 16 November 2020

The Commonwealth settles the Robodebt class action.

|

> 11 June 2021

The settlement is approved by the Federal Court. The Court finds that the settlement is fair and reasonable, based on the available evidence.

|

> 30 September 2022

Settlement payments are sent to eligible group members.

|

> 7 July 2023

The Royal Commission releases its final report. The report is highly critical of Robodebt, including the conduct of several senior officials. The Royal Commission uncovers new evidence that was not handed over during the class action. These documents show that senior officials knew the Robodebt was unlawful.

|

> 24 September 2024

The class action settlement is appealed, to make new claims of misfeasance in public office against the officials who knew that Robodebt was unlawful, but went ahead with it anyway. [my yellow highlighting]

Register for updates in Robodebt Class Action Appeal by going to

https://gordonlegal.com.au/services/class-actions/robodebt-class-action-appeal/

and scrolling to bottom of the webpage to submit a request.