UNITED NATIONS, UN News
24 October 2024 | Climate and Environment
‘Climate crunch time is here,’ new UN report warns
Fossil fuel power plants are one of the largest emitters of the greenhouse gases that cause climate change.
24 October 2024 Climate and Environment
Annual greenhouse gas emissions are at an all-time high, and urgent action must be taken to prevent catastrophic spikes in temperature and avoid the worst impact of climate change, according to a new report released on Thursday by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP).
In short, countries must start curbing emissions immediately, according to the UN Emissions Gap Report 2024.
“Climate crunch time is here,” said UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen.
“We need global mobilisation on a scale and pace never seen before, starting right now before the next round of climate pledges.”
If not, she warned, the 1.5°C goal to cap rising temperatures set in the Paris Agreement on climate change “will soon be dead, and well below two degrees Celsius will take its place in the intensive care unit”.
Climate goals could evaporate
Launched at the COP16 global biodiversity conference in Cali, Colombia, the report tracks the gap between where global emissions are heading with current country commitments and where they ought to be to limit warming to well below 2°C and pursuing 1.5°C in line with the temperature goals set out in the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change.
According to the report, the 1.5°C goal will be gone within a few years unless nations collectively commit to cut 42 per cent of annual greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and 57 per cent by 2035 in the next round of nationally determined contributions and back this up with rapid action.
These self-defined contributions outline steps to reduce emissions and adapt to climate impacts – from drought, flooding and extreme weather events – securing necessary funds and updating plans every five years, the next time being in early 2025 ahead of the COP30 climate talks in Brazil.
‘Teetering on planetary tight rope’
Without dramatic cuts to greenhouse gas emissions, the world could face an inevitable and catastrophic 3.1°C temperature rise, according to the report, which comes at a time when governments are failing to fully deliver on their promises.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres said the emissions gap is not an abstract notion. Indeed, there is a direct link between increasing emissions and increasingly frequent and intense climate disasters.
“We are teetering on a planetary tight rope,” he warned in a video message. “Either leaders bridge the emissions gap or we plunge headlong into climate disaster, with the poorest and most vulnerable suffering the most.
Affordable technologies can help
The COP29 UN Climate Change Conference commencing in Baku, Azerbaijan, in November should serve as a launchpad for a detailed discussion of such new ambitious national plans, he said, saying that the event “starts the clock for countries to deliver new national climate action plans by next year”.
“Governments have agreed to align these plans with 1.5 degrees,” he said.
That means they must drive down all greenhouse gas emissions and cover the whole economy, pushing progress in every sector, he said, urging the largest economies – the G20 members responsible for around 80 per cent of all emissions – to lead in this process.
There is hope, the UN chief stressed.
“Today’s report shows affordable, existing technologies can achieve the emissions reductions we need to 2030 and 2035 to meet the 1.5°C limit, but only with a surge in ambition and support,” he said.
Clean energy can change trajectory
The report shows significant potential to reduce emissions by up to 31 gigatons of CO₂ by 2030, which translates to about 52 per cent of emissions reported in 2023, and by 41 gigatons by 2035, helping to meet the 1.5°C target for both years.
Boosting solar photovoltaic and wind energy usage could contribute 27 per cent of the total reduction in 2030 and 38 per cent by 2035. Additionally, forest conservation could provide around 20 per cent of the necessary reductions in both years.
Other effective strategies include enhancing energy efficiency, electrifying various sectors and transitioning from fossil fuels in buildings, transport and industry, according to the report.
However, the report stated that realising even a fraction of this potential will demand unprecedented international cooperation and a comprehensive approach from governments, focusing on maximising socioeconomic and environmental benefits while minimising trade-offs.
The Emissions Gap Report 2004 titled "No more hot air … please! With a massive gap between rhetoric and reality, countries draft new climate commitments" can be downloaded at
https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/46404/EGR2024.pdf?sequence=3&isAllowed=y
Warning contained on Page 12 of the 2024 report:
Executive summary
All eyes on the next nationally determined contributions
The deadline for countries to submit their next nationally determined contributions (NDCs) with mitigation targets for 2035 is only a few months away, at the time of writing.
The fifteenth Emissions Gap Report has a special focus on what is required from these NDCs to maintain the possibility of achieving the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement of limiting global warming to well below 2°C, while pursuing 1.5°C relative to pre-industrial levels. Its core message is that ambition means nothing without action – unless global emissions in 2030 are brought below the levels implied by existing policies and current NDCs, it will become impossible to reach a pathway that would limit global warming to 1.5°C with no or limited overshoot (>50 per cent chance), and strongly increase the challenge of limiting warming to 2°C (>66 per cent chance). The next NDCs must deliver a quantum leap in ambition in tandem with accelerated mitigation action in this decade.
The magnitude of the challenge is indisputable. At the same time, there are abundant opportunities for accelerating mitigation action alongside achieving pressing development needs and Sustainable Development Goals. Technology developments, particularly in wind and solar energy, continue to exceed expectations, lowering deployment costs and driving their market expansion. The updated assessment of sectoral emission reduction potentials included in this year’s report shows that the techno-economic emission reduction potential based on existing technologies and at costs below US$200 per ton of carbon dioxide equivalent (tCO2e) remains sufficient to bridge the emissions gap in 2030 and 2035. But this will require overcoming formidable policy, governance, institutional and technical barriers as well as an unprecedented increase in the support provided to developing countries along with a redesigning of the international financial architecture. [my yellow highlighting]
From Page 14 of the 2024 report:
Figure ES.2 The landscape of current NDC targets and implementation gaps for the G20 members collectively and individually by 2030, relative to 2019 emissions
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Implied emissions trajectories of the G20 members towards net zero show reasons for concern
As at 1 June 2024, 101 parties representing 107 countries and covering approximately 82 per cent of global GHG emissions had adopted net-zero pledges either in law (28 parties), in a policy document such as an NDC or a long-term strategy (56 parties), or in an announcement by a high-level government official (17 parties). All G20 members except Mexico and the African Union (collectively) have set net-zero targets.
Overall, however, limited progress has been made since last year’s assessment on the key indicators of confidence in net-zero implementation, including legal status, the existence and quality of implementation plans and the alignment of near-term emissions trajectories with net-zero targets.
[my yellow highlighting]
On 16 June 2022 Australia submitted an updated version of its 2015 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to the UNFCCC. The update committed Australia to reducing its emissions to 43% below 2005 levels by 2030 and, reaffirmed its commitment to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. NOTE: This is not a commitment to reach absolute zero emissions.
Australia along with other UN member states will be obliged to lodge a new version of its 2022 NDC following COP29 negotiations in November 2024.
BACKGROUND
AUSTRALIA'S ENVIRONMENT 2003 REPORT,
released March 2024, excerpts:
Overview
The year 2023 was one of opposites, with environmental conditions swinging from wet to dry and back.
Globally, climate change accelerated with greenhouse gas emissions accelerating and global warming shattering new records in sea level rise, sea ice loss and temperatures in the oceans and atmosphere.
For Australia, 2023 was the eighth hottest year on record. The year began wet with average temperatures, continuing the La Niña conditions of the previous three years. Northern Australia experienced a wet monsoon season, providing relief after the previous dry years.
Wet conditions gave way to dry and unseasonably warm weather from May to October. River flows, wetlands and water reservoirs all declined from the very high 2022 levels but were still well above average.
Growing conditions were generally very good because of high soil water reserves at the start of the year and the warm and sunny cool season.
The warm and dry winter months did cause an early start of the fire season, as early as August in NSW. An intense fire season was expected but averted when wet conditions returned in November, despite a switch to El Niño climate circulation.
In December, very warm ocean temperatures east of Australia contributed to a cyclone and several storm systems that caused flooding across Queensland and Victoria.
The recovering Great Barrier Reef remained stable, but the impact of the high temperatures, a cyclone and river-borne sediments later in the year is not known yet.
The number of threatened species increased sharply, mostly as a delayed effect of the 2019/20 Black Summer bushfires.
An update to the Threatened Species Index in 2023 revealed continuous and compounding declines for threatened bird populations across Australia.
The greatest threats to Australia’s biodiversity continue to be climate change, invasive species and habitat destruction. Among invasive species, the further spread of cane toads is of significant concern.
Averaged of the year, most environmental indicators declined somewhat from very high values in 2022 but remained well above average, contributing to an overall Environmental Condition Score of 7.5......
Global Change
Globally, CO2 emissions and climate change are accelerating. 2023 saw the highest temperatures in the atmosphere and in the oceans ever recorded, the least sea ice ever observed, and a rapid increase in sea level. Atmospheric CO concentration increased by 2.6 ppm, which is 41% faster than the previous year and 16% faster than the average 2000–2022 growth rate. The rapid increase was due to a combination of ever-increasing fossil fuel emissions and a change to El Niño conditions during 2023. The average CO2 concentration reached 421 ppm, a 33% increase from 1960.
Global average air temperature was the highest on record by a considerable margin. It was 0.32 °C higher than the previous year and 1.18 °C above the 20th century average. The last ten years (2014–2023) all rank as the ten warmest on record.
The maximum ozone hole extent was 2% smaller than the previous year. It was 5% larger than the 2000–2022 average but 13% below the maximum extent observed in 2000. The ozone hole has not shrunk over the last two decades but may have stabilised.
Oceans absorb 93% of excess heat from climate change. Global ocean heat content increased by 4.8% compared to the previous year. Globally, sea surface temperatures were the highest on record in 2023.
The global mean sea level rose by 11.7 mm in 2023; the most rapid rise since 2015. Sea level has increased by 85 mm since 2000 and 101 mm since 1993.
Global Ocean Warming
+4.8% HEAT INCREASED FROM 2022
Sea ice extent was 2% less than the previous year in the Arctic and 8% less around Antarctica, where it broke the record set the previous year. Ice extent on both hemispheres combined was 5.0% less than the previous year, the lowest on record and 9.5% lower than the 2000–2022 average....
The full Australia's Environment 2023 Report can be read and downloaded at
