CLIMATE CHANGE 2025: There is no longer any room left in Australia's national discourse for self-indulgent disbelief, denial or scepticism when it come to anthropogenic global warming

Australia, both as an ancient island continent and a society predicated on a federation of states in a representative democracy, entered 2025 with the following two hundred & fifty-eight year climatic background which every single person needs to seriously consider as they navigate this federal election year and what remains of this decade.

Because the decisions made now will affect if or how our own communities, friendship groups and families will cope — because the Australian and global overarching climate and seasonal weather patterns that we grew & prospered under down the generations are quickly disappearing never to return for millennia.

State of the Climate 2024: Report at a glance, excerpts:

Key points

Australia

> Australia's climate has warmed since national records began in 1910.

> The oceans surrounding Australia have also warmed. Chart of the temperature anomaly relative to the 1961 to 1990 average, in degrees Celsius, from 1910 to 2023, for temperatures over Australia and for sea surface temperatures in the Australian region.

> Australia’s climate has warmed by an average of 1.51 ±0.23 °C since national records began in 1910.

> Sea surface temperatures have increased by an average of 1.08 °C since 1900.

> The warming has led to an increase in the frequency of extreme heat events over land and in the oceans.

> In the south-west of Australia there has been a decrease of around 16% in April to October rainfall since 1970. Across the same region, May to July rainfall has seen the largest reduction, by around 20% since 1970.

> In the south-east of Australia, there has been a decrease of around 9% in April to October rainfall since 1994.

> Heavy short-term rainfall events are becoming more intense.

> There has been a decrease in streamflow at most gauges across Australia since 1970.

> There has been an increase in rainfall and streamflow across parts of northern Australia since the 1970s.

> There has been an increase in extreme fire weather, and a longer fire season, across large parts of the country since the 1950s.

> There has been a decrease in the number of tropical cyclones observed in the Australian region since at least 1982.

> Snow depth, snow cover and number of snow days have decreased in alpine regions since the late 1950s.

> Oceans around Australia are becoming more acidic, with changes happening faster in recent decades.

> Sea levels are rising around Australia, including more frequent extreme high levels that increase the risk of inundation and damage to coastal infrastructure and communities.

Anomalies (departures from the mean for the 1961–1990 standard averaging period) in annual mean sea surface temperature, and temperature over land, in the Australian region. Sea surface temperature values (data source: ERSST v5, psl.noaa.gov) are provided for a region around Australia (4–46°S and 94–174°E).

Global

> Concentrations of all major long-lived greenhouse gases in the atmosphere continue to increase. Global annual mean carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations reached 419.2 parts per million (ppm) in 2023 and the CO2 equivalent (CO2-e) of all greenhouse gases reached 524 ppm. These are the highest levels on Earth in at least 2 million years.

> Global fossil fuel CO2 emissions, the principal driver of the growth in CO2 concentrations, are continuing to increase. Overall anthropogenic CO2 emissions, including fossil fuel and land-use change emissions, have levelled off over the last decade after increasing for more than a century prior to the 2010s.

> In 2022 and 2023, the amounts of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), both greenhouse gases, in the atmosphere increased rapidly.

> Globally averaged air temperature at the Earth’s surface has warmed by about 1.2 °C since reliable records began in 1850. Each decade since 1980 has been warmer than the last, with 2011–2020 being around 0.2 °C warmer than 2001–2010. 2023 was the warmest year on record globally.

> The world’s oceans, especially in the Southern Hemisphere, have taken up more than 90% of the extra energy stored by the planet (as heat) arising from enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations.

> The ice sheets and ice shelves of Antarctica and Greenland are losing ice due to a warmer climate, and contributing to global sea level rise.

> There has been an abrupt decrease in Antarctic sea-ice extent since 2015, after a small increase over the period from 1979 to 2014.

> Around half of all CO2 emissions from human activities are absorbed by land and ocean sinks, which act to slow the rate of increase in atmospheric CO2.

> Global mean sea levels have risen by over 22 cm since 1900; half of this has occurred since 1970.

Future

In the coming decades, Australia will experience ongoing changes to its weather and climate. The changes are projected to include:

> Continued increase in air temperatures, with more heat extremes and fewer cold extremes.

> Continued decrease, on average, in cool season rainfall across many regions of southern and eastern Australia, which will likely lead to more time in drought.

> More intense short-duration heavy rainfall events even in regions where the average rainfall decreases or stays the same.

> Continued increase in the number of dangerous fire weather days and a longer fire season for much of southern and eastern Australia.

> Further sea level rise and continued warming and acidification of the oceans around Australia.

> Increased and longer-lasting marine heatwaves that will affect marine environments such as kelp forests and increase the likelihood of more frequent and severe bleaching events in coral reefs around Australia, including the Great Barrier Reef and Ningaloo Reef.

> Fewer tropical cyclones, but with higher intensity on average, and greater impacts when they occur through higher rain rates and higher sea level.

> Reduced average snow depth in alpine regions, but with variations from year to year.

Changes in weather systems and climate influences

Australia’s weather systems are changing. Southern Australia receives much of its rainfall during the cooler months of the year from low-pressure systems and cold fronts to the south of the subtropical high-pressure ridge. During recent decades, these systems have become less common over southern Australia, and are less likely to produce rainfall when they do occur, contributing to declines in cool season rainfall. Mean sea level atmospheric pressure is increasing over Australia, and there has been an increase in the number of high-pressure systems over southern Australia, which bring dry, clear weather and little rainfall. This increase in atmospheric pressure across southern latitudes is a response to climate change.

There is large variability in the frequency of individual weather systems between individual months and years. Many of these trends are consistent with simulations from climate models, which demonstrate that increased greenhouse gas levels lead to fewer low-pressure systems in southern Australia and a stronger subtropical ridge, but an increase in the intensity of heavy rainfall, including from thunderstorms.

Australia’s climate is also influenced from year to year by various broadscale climate influences, such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). SAM shows a sustained trend towards more positive conditions from 1950 to the present day, particularly in summer.

The level of ENSO activity over the past 50 years is higher, with more significant El Niño and La Niña events than in the years between 1920 and 1970. However, there is no clear indication that recent activity levels are outside the long-term range of variability, with evidence of high levels of ENSO activity in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. There is low confidence in the long-term trends in the IOD, particularly prior to the 1960s, although paleoclimate data indicate that the recent frequency of strong positive IOD events is high in the context of multi-century variability.

The full report can be read & downloaded as a pdf at

http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/

CLIMATE CRISIS STATE OF PLAY 2025: An Open Letter to Protect Future Generations which includes a demand for federal mandated duty of care legislation protecting the young

Prominent Voices Unite to Demand a Climate Duty of Care Bill, 11 January 2025:

An Open Letter to Protect Future Generations

Addressed to:

Anthony Albanese, Prime Minister

Tanya Plibersek, Minister for the Environment and Water

Chris Bowen, Minister for Climate Change

Anne Aly, Minister for Youth

Dear Prime Minister and Ministers,

2024 is officially the hottest year on record. A child turning ten years old this year has lived through the ten hottest years on record. How many more records will be broken in this child’s lifetime? How many more broken records will future generations witness?

Young people are this country’s future. We are Australia’s future leaders, future innovators, future changemakers. We will soon inherit the world our leaders leave us, and we will be charged with taking it forward, with the responsibility of addressing the challenges and seizing the opportunities that lie ahead of us.

We are waking up every day to news headlines of climate-related emergencies such as shattered temperature records, bushfires, floods, and heat waves impacting new corners of the Earth. Climate catastrophe is no longer an abstract concept or a far off possibility - we are watching it take hold of the world we love, the world we will soon be required to create our lives within, the world we must soon lead.

We know that climate change will have a disproportionate impact on current and future generations, as the world continues to warm and climate disaster increases in frequency and severity. And yet, there is no Australian domestic legislation that mandates the protection of the health and wellbeing of young people in the face of climate change.

The responsibility to legislate this duty lies squarely with the Federal Parliament. The case of Sharma v Minister for the Environment, in which eight Australian children argued that the government owes Australian children a duty to take reasonable care to protect them from climate change harm, found that this was a matter unsuitable for judicial determination. This task is now yours.

Your actions and policies right now are shaping what our world will look like. The futures of the young people of today and tomorrow are being crafted by your decisions right now.

We call on you to acknowledge your duty of care to us. We call on you to ensure that the decisions you make today are made with our health and wellbeing at the forefront of your minds, and that this is guaranteed by law.

Young people deserve nothing less than a duty of care in the face of climate change.

Signed,

Anjali Sharma, Jess Travers-Wolf, Hannah Vardy, Daisy Jeffrey

Presented with the support of over 80 prominent persons, politicians and organisations.

Near chlamydia-free, genetically diverse & unique Koala community found in Fernbrook area of northern New South Wales

 

Yahoo! News, 9 December 2024:

Australian wildlife researchers have made an incredibly rare discovery in the bush that they've branded "such an exciting result" for koala conservation.

Thanks to assistance from a "poo-sniffing English springer spaniel" named Max, a new community of koalas at Fernbrook, inland of Coffs Harbour, has been found that appear to be both chlamydia free and genetically different — an "increasingly rare" feat in NSW......

"More surveys need to be done, but it appears these koalas at Fernbrook are very special. They can still breed and produce future generations with higher climate resilience."

.....

Why is it so significant to find both chlamydia-free and genetically diverse koalas in NSW?

Surveys by Max and the team from Canines for Wildlife showed that the broader koala population in Coffs Harbour and Bellingen has low levels of chlamydia and high genetic diversity overall.

Genetic diversity enhances a population's ability to resist diseases and in koalas, a lack of it makes them more susceptible to infections.

Urban development, agriculture, and deforestation have broken up koala habitats into smaller, scattered patches, limiting their ability to travel and find unrelated mates. Koalas often remain in isolated areas, leading to a reduced genetic pool and increased inbreeding over generations. The Fernbrook results "have conservationists celebrating" and calling for a "halt to logging in state forests" that contain vital koala food and habitat trees. While the group of 10 koalas in Fernbrook are on private properties and are not threatened by logging — the wider population around Coffs Harbour is.

Canines for Wildlife were recruited to survey for koalas across 115 sites in the Coffs Harbour and Bellingen areas, ranging from coastal regions to the Dorrigo Plateau nearly 1,000 metres above sea level.

"We learned this population is healthy, has high genetic diversity and relatively low levels of chlamydia. So this is a really important population. If we’re going to save koalas we need to wrap healthy populations like this in cotton wool and protect them," Blanch said.

"It beggars belief that the tree homes of koalas continue to be knocked down and destroyed. Logging should stop right now in the area being assessed for the Great Koala National Park and in plantations where koalas live."

What's next?

A total of 109 poo samples were collected in 2022-2023 and sent for genetic testing at the University of the Sunshine Coast. Lynn Baker from Canines for Wildlife said this new colony must be protected.

"For a koala researcher this is such an exciting result," she said. "We knew the koalas at Fernbrook looked different. They are a lot furrier and darker in colour than their compatriots on the coast. They look like cold weather koalas.

"But if this is a genetically different and a chlamydia-free group then it’s important that they are protected. There are not many areas left in NSW that have distinct groups of [healthy] koalas.

"The burning question is are these koalas isolated to the habitat on these properties or are they connected to other chlamydia-free koalas that we haven’t sampled yet?"

Canines for Wildlife is hoping to do further surveys in the areas surrounding Fernbrook to help answer the question.

Since 2001, koala numbers in the state have decreased by 33 per cent to 61 per cent, driven by habitat destruction, climate change, disease, and urbanisation. The devastating 2019–2020 bushfires alone killed at least 6,400 koalas.

Read the full article at https://au.news.yahoo.com/incredibly-rare-discovery-in-aussie-bush-by-sniffer-dog-like-striking-gold-040624856.html

CLIMATE CHANGE STATE OF PLAY 2024: we have entered a grim millennia of climate consequences

 

According to the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO biennial report, State of the Climate 2024.......

Australia, on average, has warmed by 1.51°C ± 0.23°C since national air temperature records over the land mass of the continent began in 1910. While sea surface temperatures have increased by an average of 1.08°C since 1900.

Australia is not so slowly and very noticeably cooking.

There has been an increase in extreme heat events associated with the warming over land and in the oceans.

Australia’s warmest year on record was 2019, and 8 of the 9 warmest years on record have occurred since 2013.

This is what Australia's collective experience looks like expressed as a graph

State of the Climate 2024, 22 October 2024, p.2

Every decade since 1950 has been warmer than preceding decades. The warming in Australia is consistent with global trends, with the degree of warming similar to the overall average across the world’s land areas.

There has been an increase in extreme fire weather, and a longer fire season, across large parts of Australia since the 1950s. This has resulted in catastrophic bushfires in 1967, 1974-75, 1983, 2006-07, 2009 and 2019-20. Wildfires burning across millions of hectares, changing landscapes and communities, driving many native plant and animal species closer to extinction.

The track record with regard to rainfall has shown that:

Sustained heavy rainfall and associated flooding in much of Australia, particularly the east, is most common during La Niña, as illustrated by the multiple floods that occurred in eastern Australia in 2022. The 11 wettest years on record in eastern Australia were all influenced by La Niña, and many of eastern Australia’s most significant flood years, such as 1974, 2010−2011 and 2021–2022, have occurred during strong La Niña events, although significant flooding can sometimes occur in non-La Niña years.

Global concentrations of all major long-lived greenhouse gases in the atmosphere continue to increase. Global annual mean carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentrations reached 419.2 parts per million (ppm) in 2023 and the CO₂ equivalent (CO₂-e) of all greenhouse gases reached 524 ppm. These are the highest levels on Earth in at least 2 million years.

While global fossil fuel CO₂ emissions, the principal driver of the growth in CO₂ 

concentrations, are continuing to increase.

In Australia the latest Quarterly Update of Australia’s NationalGreenhouse Gas Inventory: March 2024 shows emissions were 440.2 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO₂-e) in the year to March 2024. On a quarterly basis, this means that national emission levels for the March quarter 2024 increased 0.6% (0.6 Mt CO₂-e) in trend terms.

National emissions are preliminarily estimated to be 441 Mt CO₂-e in the year to June 2024.

Actual and trend greenhouse gas emissions have not meaningfully decreased in the last four years according to data collated by the Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water.

These inescapable global & national facts mean that Australia's future now holds these scenarios:

Future

In the coming decades, Australia will experience ongoing changes to its weather and climate. The changes are projected to include:

• Continued increase in air temperatures, with more heat extremes and fewer cold extremes.

• Continued decrease, on average, in cool season rainfall across many regions of southern and eastern Australia, which will likely lead to more time in drought.

• More intense short-duration heavy rainfall events even in regions where the average rainfall decreases or stays the same.

• Continued increase in the number of dangerous fire weather days and a longer fire season for much of southern and eastern Australia.

• Further sea level rise and continued warming and acidification of the oceans around Australia.

• Increased and longer-lasting marine heatwaves that will affect marine environments such as kelp forests and increase the likelihood of more frequent and severe bleaching events in coral reefs around Australia, including the Great Barrier Reef and Ningaloo Reef.

• Fewer tropical cyclones, but with higher intensity on average, and greater impacts when they occur

through higher rain rates and higher sea level.

• Reduced average snow depth in alpine regions, but with variations from year to year.

Here in coastal north-east New South Wales the response to our changing climate by successive federal and state governments is: (i) to crowd more urban development onto land that is projected to be amongst the first dry land to experience tidal and/or permanent sea water inundation due to rising sea levels; and (ii) to coat building materials in heat reflecting paint while ignoring the fact that building design is now inadequate due to the fact that the north-east can now expect tropical hurricanes to form offshore on a 1 in 10 year basis.

The world's 8.2 billion people are now ‘Teetering on a planetary tight rope’. Why? Because at successive UN COPs since 2015 the majority of nation participants, political advisors & industry lobbyists have turned the process into a crude, state-sponsored shell game

 

UNITED NATIONS, UN News

24 October 2024 | Climate and Environment

‘Climate crunch time is here,’ new UN report warns

Fossil fuel power plants are one of the largest emitters of the greenhouse gases that cause climate change.

24 October 2024 Climate and Environment

Annual greenhouse gas emissions are at an all-time high, and urgent action must be taken to prevent catastrophic spikes in temperature and avoid the worst impact of climate change, according to a new report released on Thursday by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP).

In short, countries must start curbing emissions immediately, according to the UN Emissions Gap Report 2024.

“Climate crunch time is here,” said UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen.

“We need global mobilisation on a scale and pace never seen before, starting right now before the next round of climate pledges.”

If not, she warned, the 1.5°C goal to cap rising temperatures set in the Paris Agreement on climate change “will soon be dead, and well below two degrees Celsius will take its place in the intensive care unit”.

Climate goals could evaporate

Launched at the COP16 global biodiversity conference in Cali, Colombia, the report tracks the gap between where global emissions are heading with current country commitments and where they ought to be to limit warming to well below 2°C and pursuing 1.5°C in line with the temperature goals set out in the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change.

According to the report, the 1.5°C goal will be gone within a few years unless nations collectively commit to cut 42 per cent of annual greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and 57 per cent by 2035 in the next round of nationally determined contributions and back this up with rapid action.

These self-defined contributions outline steps to reduce emissions and adapt to climate impacts – from drought, flooding and extreme weather events – securing necessary funds and updating plans every five years, the next time being in early 2025 ahead of the COP30 climate talks in Brazil.

‘Teetering on planetary tight rope’

Without dramatic cuts to greenhouse gas emissions, the world could face an inevitable and catastrophic 3.1°C temperature rise, according to the report, which comes at a time when governments are failing to fully deliver on their promises.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres said the emissions gap is not an abstract notion. Indeed, there is a direct link between increasing emissions and increasingly frequent and intense climate disasters.

“We are teetering on a planetary tight rope,” he warned in a video message. “Either leaders bridge the emissions gap or we plunge headlong into climate disaster, with the poorest and most vulnerable suffering the most.

Affordable technologies can help

The COP29 UN Climate Change Conference commencing in Baku, Azerbaijan, in November should serve as a launchpad for a detailed discussion of such new ambitious national plans, he said, saying that the event “starts the clock for countries to deliver new national climate action plans by next year”.

“Governments have agreed to align these plans with 1.5 degrees,” he said.

That means they must drive down all greenhouse gas emissions and cover the whole economy, pushing progress in every sector, he said, urging the largest economies – the G20 members responsible for around 80 per cent of all emissions – to lead in this process.

There is hope, the UN chief stressed.

“Today’s report shows affordable, existing technologies can achieve the emissions reductions we need to 2030 and 2035 to meet the 1.5°C limit, but only with a surge in ambition and support,” he said.

Clean energy can change trajectory

The report shows significant potential to reduce emissions by up to 31 gigatons of CO₂ by 2030, which translates to about 52 per cent of emissions reported in 2023, and by 41 gigatons by 2035, helping to meet the 1.5°C target for both years.

Boosting solar photovoltaic and wind energy usage could contribute 27 per cent of the total reduction in 2030 and 38 per cent by 2035. Additionally, forest conservation could provide around 20 per cent of the necessary reductions in both years.

Other effective strategies include enhancing energy efficiency, electrifying various sectors and transitioning from fossil fuels in buildings, transport and industry, according to the report.

However, the report stated that realising even a fraction of this potential will demand unprecedented international cooperation and a comprehensive approach from governments, focusing on maximising socioeconomic and environmental benefits while minimising trade-offs.

The Emissions Gap Report 2004 titled "No more hot air … please! With a massive gap between rhetoric and reality, countries draft new climate commitments" can be downloaded at

https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/46404/EGR2024.pdf?sequence=3&isAllowed=y

Warning contained on Page 12 of the 2024 report:

Executive summary

All eyes on the next nationally determined contributions

The deadline for countries to submit their next nationally determined contributions (NDCs) with mitigation targets for 2035 is only a few months away, at the time of writing.

The fifteenth Emissions Gap Report has a special focus on what is required from these NDCs to maintain the possibility of achieving the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement of limiting global warming to well below 2°C, while pursuing 1.5°C relative to pre-industrial levels. Its core message is that ambition means nothing without action – unless global emissions in 2030 are brought below the levels implied by existing policies and current NDCs, it will become impossible to reach a pathway that would limit global warming to 1.5°C with no or limited overshoot (>50 per cent chance), and strongly increase the challenge of limiting warming to 2°C (>66 per cent chance). The next NDCs must deliver a quantum leap in ambition in tandem with accelerated mitigation action in this decade.

The magnitude of the challenge is indisputable. At the same time, there are abundant opportunities for accelerating mitigation action alongside achieving pressing development needs and Sustainable Development Goals. Technology developments, particularly in wind and solar energy, continue to exceed expectations, lowering deployment costs and driving their market expansion. The updated assessment of sectoral emission reduction potentials included in this year’s report shows that the techno-economic emission reduction potential based on existing technologies and at costs below US$200 per ton of carbon dioxide equivalent (tCO2e) remains sufficient to bridge the emissions gap in 2030 and 2035. But this will require overcoming formidable policy, governance, institutional and technical barriers as well as an unprecedented increase in the support provided to developing countries along with a redesigning of the international financial architecture. [my yellow highlighting]

From Page 14 of the 2024 report:

Figure ES.2 The landscape of current NDC targets and implementation gaps for the G20 members collectively and individually by 2030, relative to 2019 emissions

Implied emissions trajectories of the G20 members towards net zero show reasons for concern

As at 1 June 2024, 101 parties representing 107 countries and covering approximately 82 per cent of global GHG emissions had adopted net-zero pledges either in law (28 parties), in a policy document such as an NDC or a long-term strategy (56 parties), or in an announcement by a high-level government official (17 parties). All G20 members except Mexico and the African Union (collectively) have set net-zero targets.

Overall, however, limited progress has been made since last year’s assessment on the key indicators of confidence in net-zero implementation, including legal status, the existence and quality of implementation plans and the alignment of near-term emissions trajectories with net-zero targets.

[my yellow highlighting]

On 16 June 2022 Australia submitted an updated version of its 2015 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to the UNFCCC. The update committed Australia to reducing its emissions to 43% below 2005 levels by 2030 and, reaffirmed its commitment to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. NOTE: This is not a commitment to reach absolute zero emissions.

Australia along with other UN member states will be obliged to lodge a new version of its 2022 NDC following COP29 negotiations in November 2024.

BACKGROUND

AUSTRALIA'S ENVIRONMENT 2003 REPORT,

released March 2024, excerpts:

Overview

The year 2023 was one of opposites, with environmental conditions swinging from wet to dry and back.

Globally, climate change accelerated with greenhouse gas emissions accelerating and global warming shattering new records in sea level rise, sea ice loss and temperatures in the oceans and atmosphere.

For Australia, 2023 was the eighth hottest year on record. The year began wet with average temperatures, continuing the La Niña conditions of the previous three years. Northern Australia experienced a wet monsoon season, providing relief after the previous dry years.

Wet conditions gave way to dry and unseasonably warm weather from May to October. River flows, wetlands and water reservoirs all declined from the very high 2022 levels but were still well above average.

Growing conditions were generally very good because of high soil water reserves at the start of the year and the warm and sunny cool season.

The warm and dry winter months did cause an early start of the fire season, as early as August in NSW. An intense fire season was expected but averted when wet conditions returned in November, despite a switch to El Niño climate circulation.

In December, very warm ocean temperatures east of Australia contributed to a cyclone and several storm systems that caused flooding across Queensland and Victoria.

The recovering Great Barrier Reef remained stable, but the impact of the high temperatures, a cyclone and river-borne sediments later in the year is not known yet.

The number of threatened species increased sharply, mostly as a delayed effect of the 2019/20 Black Summer bushfires.

An update to the Threatened Species Index in 2023 revealed continuous and compounding declines for threatened bird populations across Australia.

The greatest threats to Australia’s biodiversity continue to be climate change, invasive species and habitat destruction. Among invasive species, the further spread of cane toads is of significant concern.

Averaged of the year, most environmental indicators declined somewhat from very high values in 2022 but remained well above average, contributing to an overall Environmental Condition Score of 7.5......

Global Change

Globally, CO2 emissions and climate change are accelerating. 2023 saw the highest temperatures in the atmosphere and in the oceans ever recorded, the least sea ice ever observed, and a rapid increase in sea level. Atmospheric CO concentration increased by 2.6 ppm, which is 41% faster than the previous year and 16% faster than the average 2000–2022 growth rate. The rapid increase was due to a combination of ever-increasing fossil fuel emissions and a change to El Niño conditions during 2023. The average CO2 concentration reached 421 ppm, a 33% increase from 1960.

Global average air temperature was the highest on record by a considerable margin. It was 0.32 °C higher than the previous year and 1.18 °C above the 20th century average. The last ten years (2014–2023) all rank as the ten warmest on record.

The maximum ozone hole extent was 2% smaller than the previous year. It was 5% larger than the 2000–2022 average but 13% below the maximum extent observed in 2000. The ozone hole has not shrunk over the last two decades but may have stabilised.

Oceans absorb 93% of excess heat from climate change. Global ocean heat content increased by 4.8% compared to the previous year. Globally, sea surface temperatures were the highest on record in 2023.

The global mean sea level rose by 11.7 mm in 2023; the most rapid rise since 2015. Sea level has increased by 85 mm since 2000 and 101 mm since 1993.

Global Ocean Warming

+4.8% HEAT INCREASED FROM 2022

Sea ice extent was 2% less than the previous year in the Arctic and 8% less around Antarctica, where it broke the record set the previous year. Ice extent on both hemispheres combined was 5.0% less than the previous year, the lowest on record and 9.5% lower than the 2000–2022 average....

The full Australia's Environment 2023 Report can be read and downloaded at

https://www.wenfo.org/aer/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/2023_Australias_Environment_Report_March2024_spreads.pdf

The NSW Northern Rivers region is facing an intractable problem - property insurance in the global climate crisis

 

The Climate Risk Group published a report in June 2024 - Going Under: The imperative to act in Australia's high flood risk suburbs

The report looked looked at risk of damage from riverine flooding to residential homes across Australia in 2030 under RCP 8.5 scenario and its analysis covered over 14,739,901 individual addresses and 14,995 suburbs, focussing on homes identified as High Risk Properties (HRP) by 2030 - properties where insurance may become unaffordable or withdrawn completely.

The Climate Group's investigations found:

• By 2030, 588,857 Australian homes are considered to be High Risk Properties: they carry a high risk of flood cover becoming prohibitively expensive or withdrawn, i.e risk becoming uninsurable.

• NSW is by far the most impacted state, with 206,622 individual homes identified as being at high risk of becoming uninsurable by 2030.

• This compares with 382,235 homes in all other states put together.

This report identified nine urban settlement areas in the Northern Rivers region of New South Wales as being at risk in this scenario.

Tweed Heads South, Chinderah, Ballina, West Ballina and Grafton are identified as Black Zone localities. Black Zone Suburbs are suburbs where over 80% of residential properties are at high risk of becoming uninsurable. In these zones, property buy-back and community relocation will have to be considered.

Tweed Heads, Tweed Heads West, Lismore, South Lismore and Yamba are identified as being Red Zone localities. Red Zone Suburbs are suburbs where 50-80% of residential properties are at high risk of becoming uninsurable. With investment in adaptation these zones could still be viable.

On 16 May 2024, the Australian Senate created the Select Committee on the Impact of Climate Risk on Insurance Premiums and Availability. The committee is currently conducting an inquiry into the Impact of Climate Risk on Insurance Premiums and Availability and is to present a final report to parliament by 19 November 2024.

The Insurance Council of Australia has informed this inquiry of the industry's assessment of the national situation:

> Worsening extreme weather events, expansion of development in high-risk areas, growing asset values and higher inflation, particularly in the construction sector, are putting upward pressure on the affordability of insurance in Australia and across markets globally. This is widening the gap between those who can afford insurance and those who can’t, particularly in areas most vulnerable to extreme weather risk.

> To address insurance affordability over the short- to medium-term, it will be critical to continue to strengthen the resilience of communities and businesses so that they can better withstand the disasters Australia is already experiencing. This includes bolstering investment in resilience enhancing infrastructure, strengthening our building stock, and reforming land use planning to improve community safety and affordability when building new homes. After peril risk, the second biggest component of the cost of insurance premiums is taxation; the removal of state insurance taxes will also be an essential reform to provide immediate cost of living relief.

> Over the longer-term, in addition to consistent resilience investment, industry and governments need to continue to tackle the underlying driver of worsening extreme weather, climate change, by maintaining a focus on achieving net zero emissions by 2050.

> The insurance industry, in partnership with governments and regulators, is at the forefront of working to close the protection gap. For example, the Australian Government’s Hazards Insurance Partnership (HIP), focuses on bringing industry and government together to identify the high-risk areas around the country where insurance affordability challenges are growing, and tests and targets the appropriate policy solutions. Insurers are also working with the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) to undertake a Climate Vulnerability Assessment focused on the impacts of a warming climate on the availability of general insurance. The ICA and its members have also led key industry initiatives, including releasing an industry-wide climate change roadmap and producing new economic and actuarial analysis focused on the costs of extreme weather, uplifting Australia’s building codes and standards and strengthening state and federal resilience investment.

Northern Rivers newspaper The Echo in an article titled Climate change pushes up insurance, families going uninsured on 8 October 2024:

Financial Rights Legal Centre Senior Policy and Communications Officer Julia Davis told the enquiry, ‘The problem of insurance in a changing climate has reached a point where the market is not going to solve these problems. It is time for government intervention.

‘The repercussions of these events extend beyond financial strain for consumers. The consequences have been deeply personal with individuals facing emotional stress, strained relationships and trauma.’

Ms Davis also said managing insurance claims was ‘nothing short of retraumatising’ for many consumers.

Financial Counsellors Australia National Coordinator for Disaster Recovery, Vicki Staff said her organisation had seen people being quoted over $60,000 per year for insurance.

‘They are now having to find an insurance product that doesn’t fully cover them for the natural perils they are the most at risk of,’ she said.

Widening gap

Insurance Council of Australia Chief Operating Officer Kylie McFarlane told the enquiry, ‘The widening gap between those who can afford insurance and those who can not, especially in areas vulnerable to extreme weather risk, is an issue that we need to address collectively.

‘Insurance prices risk, and the most effective way to reduce pressure on premiums and reduce the protection gap is to mitigate or eliminate those risks.