Near chlamydia-free, genetically diverse & unique Koala community found in Fernbrook area of northern New South Wales

 

Yahoo! News, 9 December 2024:

Australian wildlife researchers have made an incredibly rare discovery in the bush that they've branded "such an exciting result" for koala conservation.

Thanks to assistance from a "poo-sniffing English springer spaniel" named Max, a new community of koalas at Fernbrook, inland of Coffs Harbour, has been found that appear to be both chlamydia free and genetically different — an "increasingly rare" feat in NSW......

"More surveys need to be done, but it appears these koalas at Fernbrook are very special. They can still breed and produce future generations with higher climate resilience."

.....

Why is it so significant to find both chlamydia-free and genetically diverse koalas in NSW?

Surveys by Max and the team from Canines for Wildlife showed that the broader koala population in Coffs Harbour and Bellingen has low levels of chlamydia and high genetic diversity overall.

Genetic diversity enhances a population's ability to resist diseases and in koalas, a lack of it makes them more susceptible to infections.

Urban development, agriculture, and deforestation have broken up koala habitats into smaller, scattered patches, limiting their ability to travel and find unrelated mates. Koalas often remain in isolated areas, leading to a reduced genetic pool and increased inbreeding over generations. The Fernbrook results "have conservationists celebrating" and calling for a "halt to logging in state forests" that contain vital koala food and habitat trees. While the group of 10 koalas in Fernbrook are on private properties and are not threatened by logging — the wider population around Coffs Harbour is.

Canines for Wildlife were recruited to survey for koalas across 115 sites in the Coffs Harbour and Bellingen areas, ranging from coastal regions to the Dorrigo Plateau nearly 1,000 metres above sea level.

"We learned this population is healthy, has high genetic diversity and relatively low levels of chlamydia. So this is a really important population. If we’re going to save koalas we need to wrap healthy populations like this in cotton wool and protect them," Blanch said.

"It beggars belief that the tree homes of koalas continue to be knocked down and destroyed. Logging should stop right now in the area being assessed for the Great Koala National Park and in plantations where koalas live."

What's next?

A total of 109 poo samples were collected in 2022-2023 and sent for genetic testing at the University of the Sunshine Coast. Lynn Baker from Canines for Wildlife said this new colony must be protected.

"For a koala researcher this is such an exciting result," she said. "We knew the koalas at Fernbrook looked different. They are a lot furrier and darker in colour than their compatriots on the coast. They look like cold weather koalas.

"But if this is a genetically different and a chlamydia-free group then it’s important that they are protected. There are not many areas left in NSW that have distinct groups of [healthy] koalas.

"The burning question is are these koalas isolated to the habitat on these properties or are they connected to other chlamydia-free koalas that we haven’t sampled yet?"

Canines for Wildlife is hoping to do further surveys in the areas surrounding Fernbrook to help answer the question.

Since 2001, koala numbers in the state have decreased by 33 per cent to 61 per cent, driven by habitat destruction, climate change, disease, and urbanisation. The devastating 2019–2020 bushfires alone killed at least 6,400 koalas.

Read the full article at https://au.news.yahoo.com/incredibly-rare-discovery-in-aussie-bush-by-sniffer-dog-like-striking-gold-040624856.html

22 arrests and counting in forest defenders fight to stop logging in Bulga State Forest since 1 October 2024

 

Forestry Corporation of NSW resumed logging in the Bulga State Forest, west of Comboyne in the Mid-North Coast region of New South Wales', in early October 2024.

Since then 22 forest defenders, including Knitting Nannas, have been attested in the state forests.

Here are just three of these defenders......

ECHO, 4 December 2024:

Knitting Nannas Dominique Jacobs (60) and Helen Kvelde (73) yesterday became the 21st and 22nd people arrested protesting the logging of Bulga State Forest, west of Port Macquarie. They had attached themselves to the giant tree killing machine known as a harvester.

Both Nannas are active in protesting the lack of action on climate change and are deeply dismayed that the most effective carbon capture and storage technology on the planet, mature forests, are being destroyed at taxpayer expense.

Dom Jacobs said, ‘I’m a grandmother and a wildlife carer. I’m terrified about the future my grandkids face and what is happening to the wild creatures and wild places. We are losing so much that is perfect and wonderful on this planet and I’m really worried about what will be left for those who come after us.

‘As a wildlife carer I get to know those little creatures intimately, they have personalities, they are very susceptible to stress. The thought of them in their beautiful forest homes with trees crashing around them and all the noise of the machines, I can’t imagine their terror.

‘We humans, we take everything. We need to leave something. We need to leave some places be,’ she said.

‘I want to do everything I can. I want to do something that has real impact. Stopping the chopping of glider and koala homes is a good way to spend a day.’

Increasingly fed up

Helen Kvelde said, ‘I feel like I’ve been fighting this war for 50 years and I’m getting more and more fed up. The powers that be aren’t listening, not to the people or the scientists. Climate chaos is here now, it’s happening all over the globe and governments, logging and fossil fuel companies are still acting as if there is no tomorrow.

‘I’m bewildered at the lack of action. I’ve been to so many rallies and marches, signed petitions, written letters but it feels like we are just going through the motions. As Greta Thunberg said all we get back is bla bla bla.

‘Our governments are full of hot air and empty promises. They say they see climate change as a serious threat and that there is a biodiversity crisis, but their actions suggest they think it’s a joke or it’s not real,’ she said.

‘It’s like I’m watching the Lorax play out in real life. It was a story where in order to get rich, all the trees were cut down, and the land was left a dirty stinking wreck.

‘I’m hoping that our action today gives kids hope and encourages others to do the same. I’m a bit frightened but I also feel that desperate times require desperate measures,’ said Ms Kvelde.

Both women agreed that forests like Bulga are vital for threatened wildlife, saying that we need to respect and care for all those big trees, not just for their intrinsic right to exist and live in peace, but because they defend us from the most dangerous threat of all: climate chaos.

Save Bulga Forest, media release, 15 October 2024:

John Seed OAM, attached to logging machinery
in Bulga State Forest, 15th October 2024

John Seed, founder of the Rainforest Information Centre and the Deep Ecology Network was arrested today for attaching himself to logging machinery in Bulga forest.

John, now in his 79th year, says he had a transformative experience in the rainforests of north east NSW during the Terania Creek protests in 1979.

“The forest spoke to me. Working to keep the trees standing was the best use of my short time on this amazing jewel of a planet, so far the only one of its kind that we know of in this galaxy.

“It’s 45 years since I was FIRST arrested for the forests (and for which I subsequently received an OAM after the Wran government turned the forest where I was arrested into the Nightcap National Park – now on the World Heritage list along with the Grand Canyon and the Serengeti).

“I believe the Bulga Forest will also find its way into National Park and World Heritage status once this government wakes up. Then tourism will earn orders of magnitude more than the vandalism that we’re currently trying to stop.

“There’s been no proper assessment of the damage done by the 2019/20 fires. We don’t know how many trees and animals died, how many hollow habitat trees were lost. The most basic element of the precautionary principle is that if you don’t know, stop making things worse.

“Climate chaos is barrelling towards us. We need to stop making the damage worse and focus on earth repair and building resilience. How can we have hope for a future for our kids and grandkids if our governments insist on destroying the planet’s protection mechanisms,” he said.

In 1995 John was awarded an Order of Australia Medal for his services to conservation and the environment. Through his work over the decades, the Rainforest Information Centre has supported communities in PNG, the Solomon Islands, Cambodia, Ecuador, India to defend their forests, through direct action, establishment of protected forest areas, reafforestation programs or funds for litigation.

It's native orchid time around Australia

White Donkey Orchid 2012 - usual colouring 

https://beyondeyelevel.smugmug.com/Flowers/Wild-Orchids-of-the-Yuraygir-N

Clarence Valley Independent, 20 November 2024:

Threatened Species Protection

November 20, 2024 -

VOICES FOR THE EARTH

Significant excitement was generated earlier this month when a sharp-eyed member of the public spotted a mostly white Donkey Orchid. His inquiries led to experts believing this is a new species.

All orchids and other collectable or merchantable native plants in NSW, like ferns, Grass Trees etc are protected under the National Parks and Heritage Legislation Amendment Act, so these handful of plants are protected.

However, they were growing in a relatively public location, meaning there is a chance of their being accidentally trampled, or worse, being dug up by some unscrupulous collector. As a result, the location, as with most rare plants, especially collectable species are usually kept secret.

I must add that the majority of orchid ‘enthusiasts’ do the right thing which, unless the plant is listed as threatened under the NSW Biodiversity Conservation Act, is only a matter of paying a modest fee for a permit.

There are 568 native plants listed as threatened under the Act and protected accordingly, which leads us to the hypothetical possibility that, because these new orchids aren’t listed as threatened, that handful of plants could be legally dug up under a standard collectors’ permit.

The problem is, it’s not just newly discovered species that are missing out on protection, there are literally hundreds of rare species facing extinction today, simply because nobody has done the research and work required to nominate them for protection.

Before declaring a species as threatened, the NSW Scientific Committee needs to see credible evidence that the nominated species is under threat of extinction. They need to know the extent of populations and the threats they face, which can be costly and time consuming.

Anyone can make a nomination, there is no one person, organisation, or government department charged with doing this research. The problem for new species is they first need describing and details published in a reputable journal before a nomination can be considered, and all that takes time and money.

A dedicated rare species assessment team, charged with doing that work, would be great.

John Edwards

Australian White Finger Orchid 2021
IMAGE: Peter F Williams @pfwaus

Still some amazing diversity in the roadside orchids near Mallacoota, VIC at the start of Nov. with good numbers of beard and onion orchids out, the occasional large duck and the last few spotted sun orchids finishing up. Not bad for a fairly dry spring ... #orchids #ozplants pic.twitter.com/2mTlZVXhWP

— Silver Dory (@thesilverdory) November 16, 2024

From a couple of weeks ago in the #PerthHills, some Blue Lady Orchids (Thelymitra crinita). These lovely #orchids have finished flowering now and have hopefully set seed #biodiversity #ozflora #ozplants #WildOz pic.twitter.com/IXabi7XQVl

— WA Orchids (@wa_orchids) November 3, 2024

By 3 July in 2024 there were 644,633 instances of communicable diseases recorded in Australia - 75.83% of which were respiratory diseases (with COVID-19 leading the respiratory numbers)

ScienceOpen, Zoonoses, Volume 4, Issue 1:

GlobalInfectious Diseases between January and March 2024: Periodic Analysis

Tingting, J. et al, published 21 May 2024

FIGURE 1 | Worldwide distribution of infectious diseases from January to March 2024.

In the past 3 decades, >40 previously unidentified infectious diseases have emerged globally. This emergence, coupled with accelerated urbanization, advancing transportation networks, climate change, and global population aging, has led to the rapid spread and increased recurrence of infectious diseases worldwide. Consequently, these phenomena pose a significant threat to public health and safety, while profoundly impacting economic and social development.

As a result, the effective prevention and control of newly emerging infectious diseases have become pressing imperatives for humanity. Simultaneously, bolstering research efforts aimed at preventing and treating emerging infectious diseases remains an ongoing pursuit within the medical domain, encapsulated by the adage, “with greater knowledge comes greater challenges.” It is an unequivocal responsibility for healthcare practitioners to diligently explore timely and efficacious methods and strategies for preventing and treating newly emerging infectious diseases.

The Australian Government Dept. of Health Surveillance Dashboard (listing 9 major disease groups & updated 3 July 2024) records that to date in 2024 there have been 644,633 instances of confirmed communicable diseases in Australia.

With the highest numbers found in the Respiratory Diseases Group with a total of 488,848 confirmed instances across 6 named diseases:

COVID-19 209,532 cases

Influenza (laboratory confirmed) 53,014 cases

Legionellosis (Legionnaires' disease) 347 cases

Pertussis (Whooping Cough) 12,383 cases

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) 112,891 cases

Tuberculosis 711 cases.

Note: In the year to 22 June 2024 the Northern NSW Local Health District recorded:

2,406 confirmed cases of COVID-19;

680 confirmed cases of Influenza;

1,063 confirmed cases of RSV; and

To date the area health service has not issued a specific Pertussis alert for the Northern Rivers region this year.

The Surveillance Dashboard group with the second highest numbers was Gastrointestinal diseases with a total of 41,169 confirmed instances across 13 named diseases.

While the group with the third highest numbers was Sexually transmissible infections with a total of 81,088 confirmed instances across 4 named diseases.

The group with the fourth highest numbers was sadly Vaccine preventable diseases with a total of 20,487 confirmed instances across 13 diseases.

The only communicable diseases on the Surveillance Dashboard not listed as occurring from 1 January to 3 July 2024 are Donovanosis, Poliovirus infection, Rubella congenital, Tetanus, Japanese encephalitis virus infection, Anthrax, Australian bat lyssavirus infection & Tularaemia.

The highest number of communicable disease notifications to date originated from New South Wales (263,628), Queensland (138,625) and Victoria (116,788). These three states making up a combined est. 80.51% of all notifications.

MORTALITY

From 2022 to 2024 COVID-19 has been the leading cause of acute respiratory infection mortality in Australia, totally 21,158 deaths with more males dying from COVID-19 compared to females.

There were est. 1,367 COVID-19 deaths between 1 January and 31 May 2024 - 626 females and 741 males.

There were also 152 recorded deaths from Influenza with more males than females having died from influenza in 2024. Additionally, a total of 114 deaths were recorded from RSV in 2024.

As the gentle giants pass by......

Twice a year the ocean off the NSW Coast becomes a busy highway.

Between May and July these gentle giants can be seen heading north towards their sub-tropical breeding grounds and then between September and November they pass along coastal waters heading south back to Antarctica. 

Here are some scenes of the northern migration in 2023 and 2024 as the whales make their way through the waters off northern New South Wales.

 

Video by  Joe Young

 

pic.twitter.com/yJ6rjhztmp

— sᴉɹɹǝℲ ǝllǝɥɔoɹ (@OzEcology) June 12, 2024

Via @OzEcology

 Video byByron-Jindabyne

Video by Alex McNaught

Isolated flooding across the Northern River region as the weekend begins

 

Echo, 5 April 2024:

Isolated flooding throughout the Northern Rivers has led to the closure of Coffee Camp Public School on Nimbin Road and Corndale Public School as well as water over roads throughout the region.

There have been flooding events in Mullumbimby with water over Gulgan Road near Uncle Toms as well as flooding in Bangalow.

Ballina

Ballina Shire has seen water over the road at Tamarind Drive at Cumbalum while the following roads have been closed due to water over the road:

• Ross Lane at Kinvara

• Friday Hut Road at Brooklet (Kirklands Crossing)

• Dalwood Road at Dalwood

• Teven Road at Teven

• Pearces Creek Hall Road at Pearces Creek

• Emigrant Crossing at Newrybar

• Eltham Road at Teven

• Eltham Road/Jones Lane at Teven

• Lindendale Road at Wollongbar

• Marom Creek Road at Meerschaum Vale

• Wardell Road at Meerschaum Vale

• Tooheys Mill Road at Nashua

• Friday Hut Road at Emigrant Creek (Kirklands Crossing)

• Burns Point Ferry is operating. Use caution boarding and disembarking the ferry.

Visit livetraffic.com for a full list of roads and their status.

For emergency help in floods and storms call the SES on 132 500. For more emergency info visit Council’s emergency dashboard emergency.ballina.nsw.gov.au.

For hazard information download the NSW Government’s Hazards Near Me App available at nsw.gov.au/emergency/hazards-near-me-app.

Wildlife Sanctuary

Byron Bay Wildlife Sanctuary saw flash flooding yesterday during a downpour.

‘In just thirty minutes, half of our sanctuary was submerged underwater. But in the face of this natural disaster, our incredible teams didn’t hesitate—they sprang into action to ensure the safety of our precious animals,’ they said in a press release.

This has resulted in the wildlife sanctuary being closed Friday and Saturday but they hope to reopen Sunday, April 7.

Lismore

Lismore has seen a minor flood warning for the Wilsons River at Lismore, Richmond River at Coraki with some localised flooding throughout the catchment.

Lismore MP also alerted car owners via social media that their cars were at risk from flooding as the waters rose in Lismore.

The Wilsons River is no longer expected to flood in the Lismore area.

Richmond River at Coraki and Bungawalbyn may reach reach minor flood level on Saturday.

Clarence Valley

According to Clarence Valley Council's Dashboard the Orara River was still rising at 11 pm on Friday, 5 April and local residents in the Glenreagh, Coutts Crossing and surrounding areas were advised to monitor the situation as minor riverine flooding was beginning to occur. The river may reach minor flood level by Saturday afternoon.

The Clarence River at Rogan's Bridge was also still rising at 10:50pm according to the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) at:

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDN60140.html#Lower_Clarence_River

PROPOSED GREAT KOALA NATIONAL PARK - STATE OF PLAY SEPTEMBER 2023: and now for a some good news

 

Map of the proposed Great Koala National Park (white outline). Red polygons show planned logging over the next 12 months. White polygons are 'koala hubs’ - the most important sites of koala habitat in NSW [Nature Conservation Council (NSW), 2023] Click on image to enlarge

Nature Conservation Council (NSW)

Media Release, 12 September 2023

Critical Koala Habitat protected from logging: NCC welcomes moratorium of logging

The Nature Conservation Council of New South Wales (NCC), the state’s leading environmental advocacy organisation, today welcomes the announcement by Ministers Sharpe and Moriarty that critical koala habitat in the future Great Koala National Park will be granted immediate protection from logging.

“This is a historic step forward by the Minns Government. “From today, 8400 hectares of the most important koala habitat in the world will be protected from logging,” said Nature Conservation Council acting CEO Dr Brad Smith.

The NSW Government today announced the process to establish the Great Koala National Park, as well as a halt to timber harvesting operations in the 106 koala hubs within the area being assessed for the park.

As the NSW government notes “The 106 koala hubs cover more than 8,400 hectares of state forest. Koala hubs are areas where there is strong evidence of multi-generational, high-density populations of the iconic animal. Koala hubs cover approximately 5% of the Great Koala National Park assessment area, but contain 42% of recorded koala sightings in state forests in the assessment area since 2000.

The move comes after analysis by the Nature Conservation Council released in June found that 17.7% of state forest that constitutes the Great Koala National Park proposal was to be targeted for logging over the next 12 months – a 300% increase on the previous two years.

Critically, the analysis found that logging was planned in areas the NSW government has identified as the most important areas of koala habitat in NSW (OEH Koala Hubs) including Wild Cattle Creek, Clouds Creek, Pine Creek and Boambee State Forests.

"This is a big win for the environment movement, koalas and the forests of the mid north coast” Dr Brad Smith, NCC Acting CEO said.

“What we’ve seen today is Ministers Sharpe and Moriarity recognise and respond to the community who want to protect their local forests, koalas and First Nations heritage from the devastating impact of logging.”

“This decision is a win for the people of NSW, who rallied, protested and demanded better - in some cases tying themselves to the giant trees that will now remain standing.” 

“This decision is also a recognition that logging has a devastating impact on koalas and biodiversity. We applaud them for ensuring that the most important areas of koala habitat in NSW be protected.”

“Protecting the most precious 5% of the Great Koala National Park area gives these koala populations a fighting chance.

“Of course we’re also concerned about the remaining 95% of the proposed park area, and we look forward to working through that assessment to ensure it’s also protected from logging as soon as possible.

“We also welcome the confirmation that 8400 hectares constitutes 5% of the park, meaning the Minns Government is delivering on their election promise by assessing all 175 000 hectares of forest that constitutes the Great Koala National Park proposal.”

Statement ends

Very little of what has been built in in the NSW North Rivers coastal zone appears to have a long habitable lifespan - so it's buyer beware

 

What is fascinating about this development application set out in the following article is that the Byron Bay local government area coastal zone generally, including Clifford Street, Suffolk Park, is expected to be impacted by ongoing storm surges, tidal incursion and then permanent sea level inundation beginning sometime between 2027 to 2030 – roughly four to seven years from now. With 9-15 Clifford Street being one of the last addresses to be affected in that street.

Most of the sea level rise scenarios indicate that 9-15 Clifford Street as a habitable dwelling space may only have a life of around 37 to 47 years if Australian east coast and global air and sea temperatures keep rising as steeply as they have in the last 40 years.

Barely enough time to pay off the mortgage before the unit/apartment becomes worthless.

The Echo, 7 June 2023:

The company behind a controversial mixed-use development in the heart of Suffolk Park has quietly submitted revised plans for the proposal as part of the ongoing court battle over the matter.

Sydney-based developer, Denwol Pty Ltd, took Byron Council to the Land & Environment Court after it refused their plans to build two new three-storey buildings, containing 16 units, seven town houses and 300m2 of commercial space at 9–15 Clifford Street.

Council had set out 17 separate reasons for refusing the development application when it was originally submitted last year, including factors related to the environmental impacts, design, bushfire risk and affordable housing claims.

With the formal court hearing getting underway last week, Denwol made an application to the court to submit amended plans for the project.

This followed an amended DA that was submitted in April which involved a significant reduction in the size of the development.

Published on Council’s website, these amended plans involve reducing in the number of residential apartments from 16 to seven, and the number of town houses from seven to six. There would be two retail tenancies.

Both buildings are reduced to two-storeys in the amended plans, though there is little difference in the overall height of the development.

There is also a significant increase in how far the buildings will be set back from the road, though this will require more trees to be cut down.

Resident, Lynne Richardson, said that the amended plans represented little change in practical terms because the overall footprint of the development was ‘much the same’.

Community excluded

She also said that the process by which the most recent amendment had been submitted had excluded the community.

‘I was enraged by the process,’ Ms Richardson said.

‘The only community members who were actually told were those who were due to give evidence during the hearing, and we were only given a few days’ notice to get our heads around the plans before doing that.

‘[Council’s lawyers, Marsdens] only told us a few days before we were due to give evidence, and they asked us to respect the confidentiality of the developer by not disseminating the new plans more widely. In my opinion, the newly modified plans should have been more widely circulated to the community. This affects all of them so they should have been told.’

The Echo understands that Council will continue to contest the matter in court, despite the submission of the modified plans by the developer.

BACKGROUND

Byron Shire Council - List of Applications Submitted, excerpt, retrieved 12 June 2023:

Original Development Application.

10.2022.137.1

Development Application 13/07/2022 15 Clifford St, Suffolk Park 2481 NSW

15A Clifford St, Suffolk Park 2481 NSW

9-13 Clifford St, Suffolk Park 2481 NSW

Demolition of Nine (9) Dwellings, Removal of Twenty Five (25) Native Trees and Construction of a Mixed Use Development Comprising of Two (2) Buildings including Commercial Premises and Multi Dwelling Housing being Twenty Three (23) Dwellings of which Twelve (12) will be Affordable Housing and Swimming Pools.

Details here including latest modification submitted this year.

Existing dwellings

Byron Shire Council flood mapping showing part of Clifford Street

DROUGHT: and so it begins.....

 

The green map of New South Wales is changing colour as soil moisture begins to fall.

Thus far drought affected land is confined to the north-east and north-west of the state, with 10.9% of land on the North Coast affected.

 An est. 35 parishes are drought affected in the Clarence Valley, 13 parishes in the Richmond Valley and 3 border parishes in Tweed Shire.

The Dept. of Primary Industry seasonal update considers that "Drought Affected Land" status is intensifying in the Clarence Valley. Currently that status appears to cover an area roughly from just south of Lawrence following the river to land up past Dumbudgery and, from the Yulgilbar district in the north to the Elland district in the south.

NSW Dept. of Primary Industries, Combined Drought Indicator, mapping as of 3 June 2023

Australia's housing access & affordability crisis not going to ease in the near future

The estimated usual resident population of the NSW Northern Rivers region at the 2021 census was 311,177 men, women and children and the largest age cohort appears to be people aged between 55-69 years of age. 

These regional residents are living in est.143,846 freestanding houses, semi-detached town houses, units, flats, cabins and caravans.

From I July 2021 to January 2023 there have been a total of 2,137 new building approvals granted across the region. This represents a fall of -31 housing approvals compared to those granted from 1 July 2020 to 30 June 21. Most of these approvals appear to have been for free standing houses.

As of 4 April 2023 there are est. 700 properties on the regional rental market, with approximately half priced between $800 to $3,500 a week. In 2021 in Northern Rivers Region an estimated half of all households had incomes below $2,000 per week and only 13.1% of all households earned an income of $3,000 or more per week.

“Housing markets are now at an inflection point. At a time of returning migration, they are contending with a perfect storm of high inflation and interest rates, slowing supply and record low vacancy rates.”

[State of the Nation’s Housing Report 2022–23, 3 April 2023]

Australian Government, National Housing Finance and Investment Corporation (NHFIC), 3 April 2023:

State of the Nation’s Housing Report 2022–23

Australia’s housing markets have been through an extraordinary period, impacted by COVID-19 related lockdowns, low population growth and record amounts of monetary and fiscal stimulus.

NHFIC modelling in the State of the Nation’s Housing 2022-23 suggests:

• More than 1.8 million new households are expected to form across Australia from 2023 to 2033, taking total households to 12.6 million (up from 10.7 million in 2022). These households are expected to comprise around 1.7 million new occupied households and 116,000 vacant properties (e.g. holiday homes).

• The much earlier increase in interest rates (relative to previous Reserve Bank of Australia guidance) is adversely impacting supply. NHFIC expects around 148,500 new dwellings (net of demolitions) to be delivered in 2022-23, before net new construction falls to 127,500 in 2024-25. A recovery in supply is expected after 2025-26 on the back of changing macroeconomic conditions and stronger underlying demand.

• Slowing supply, together with increasing household formation is expected to lead to a supply household formation balance of around -106,300 dwellings (cumulative) over the 5 years to 2027 (and around -79,300 dwellings over the projection period 2023 to 2033).

• From 2023 to 2032, household formation is expected to be dominated by lone person households (563,600 additional households), followed by couples with children households (533,300 additional households). Within 5 years, it is expected lone person households will be the fastest growing household type across the country.

• NHFIC continues to expect a shortage of apartments and multi-density dwellings for rent over the medium-term. Net additions of apartments and medium-density dwellings such as town houses are projected to be around 57,000 a year (on average) over the 5 years to 2026-27, around 40% less than the levels seen in the late 2010s.

• The premium for space at home, with ongoing work from home arrangements following the pandemic has contributed to reducing average household size. This has been a factor in sharply falling vacancy rates. Analysis shows that decreasing household size since mid-2021 led to an additional 341,500 households forming, or around 103,000 in net terms since the beginning of COVID-19.

• NHFIC estimates that, conservatively, around 377,600 households are in housing need, comprising 331,000 households in rental stress and 46,500 households experiencing homelessness. Housing need across the country range from 208,200 households in highly acute rental stress to 577,400 households under less acute rental pressure.

Key findings:

• Strong demand for housing coupled with tight supply of both labour and materials, and bad weather has put significant pressure on the construction industry. Approximately 28,000 dwellings were delayed in 2022. NHFIC’s industry consultation suggests builders are making cost allowances of up to 40% for unexpected delays, up from a more normal 20%.

• In addition to higher interest rates, supply of new housing continues to be impeded by a range of factors including, the availability of serviced land, higher construction costs, ongoing community opposition to development and long lead times for delivering new supply.

• Rental growth and rental affordability varied significantly across and within greater city and regional areas, with rental growth in regional areas now falling after a period of record demand. Rental growth in major cities such as Sydney and Melbourne are outpacing rental growth in regional NSW and Vic, which suggests the premium of living in large cities close to employment centres may be returning.

• Rental affordability has varied greatly across the country during COVID-19. In Sydney, rents in several outer Local Government Areas (LGAs) increased more than 30% from early-2020 to January 2023 and more than 3 times that of some inner-city LGAs. Outcomes in Melbourne have been more subdued, with more than half of Melbourne’s LGAs experiencing rental increases of less than 10% since pre-pandemic. Southeast Qld has had the largest rental rises, with all 12 LGAs experiencing rental increases of 30% or more.

• Trends in the macroeconomy can affect the ability of first home buyers to enter the market. Analysis shows that since the 1990s in Sydney, deposit hurdle rates (i.e. deposit as a percentage of income) on average increased by around 8% during an interest rate tightening cycle (-10% so far this cycle), compared with 26% during easing cycles. The average deposit required as a percentage of annual income has nearly doubled over this period from 60% to 110%.

Download the report

State of the Nation's Housing Report 2022-23 (pdf 3.75 MB) https://www.nhfic.gov.au/sites/default/files/2023-03/state_of_the_nations_housing_report_2022-23.pdf

“In the detached market, in the 12 months to January 2023, average capital city price growth dropped to -4% after peaking at 23% in the last quarter of 2021.

Sydney and Melbourne were most impacted, with house prices falling around 15% and 11% respectively over the12 months to January 2023. House price growth was still relatively strong in Adelaide (6%) followed by Darwin (5%) and Perth (3%).

Detached house price growth in regional NSW, Vic, Qld, SA, WA and Tas outpaced growth in capital city areas of these states. The strongest regional price increase was in regional SA”

[State of the Nation’s Housing Report 2022–23, 3 April 2023]

According to the Reserve Bank of Australia, 16 March 2023:

 

The share of households that rent has risen over the past few decades, mainly in the eastern states. This reflects a rise in the proportion of private renters as home ownership rates have declined. The share of households in public housing has also declined, as growth in public housing stock has not kept pace with growth in the total number of households. Rent assistance to private tenants has also become a more common way of providing housing assistance to lower income households……

The average and median incomes of renter households are generally lower than owner-occupiers across age groups.... However, the share of private renters who are in the top half of the income distribution has risen over time as the share of private renters in higher paid jobs, such as professional services, has increased. This shift has coincided with an increase in the average age of first home buyers and a decline in the home ownership rate among younger households…..

Renters, especially those on lower incomes, tend to spend a larger proportion of their incomes on basic living expenses and have less spare cash flow (i.e. income available to spend on discretionary consumption or save), relative to those who have a mortgage. Renters also tend to have lower savings buffers. In combination, these factors can make renters more vulnerable to increases in the cost of living and make it more difficult for these households to accumulate wealth over time, compared with owner-occupiers….

Nearly 90 per cent of all households in the lowest wealth quintile were renters in 2019/20. This in part reflects that renters tend to be younger than other types of households and so have had less opportunity to accumulate savings over time. However, renters also tend to have lower wealth compared with owner-occupier households even after controlling for age and income....

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed that Rent CPI stood at 1.0% in April 2022 and had risen to 1.6% by May - then risen again in July to 2.0%, August 2.4%, September 2.9% & December 4.1%. 

The start of a new year saw the Rent CPI at 4.8% in January & February 2023. The next release of monthly CPI data occurs on 26 April 2023.