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| via X/Twitter 10.07.24 |
So
how are we all feeling today? Short answer is — nobody knows for
sure what Australia's collective mood is.
However
the statisticians tell us that most of us feel out families are
"worse off" than they were last year and are not expecting
to see "good times" anytime soon.
Many
of us are still in the dumps about the cost of living. We are not
spending up big and that is reflected in business turnover.
We
are doing what Aussies always do in tough times — we gamble a
little bit more chasing the rainbow of a home of our own or a car
that isn't falling to bits.
Low income families are sometimes having to borrow from family or friends to meet household utility bills, despite small government subsidies for residential electricity.
While
the average Internet subscriber is still spending 10 hours a week on
entertainment streaming services, it seems quite a few people are now
switching to advertising-supported content streaming as a way to
shave a few dollars off the weekly budget.
When
it comes to looking at economic activity and consumer confidence
statisticians rarely mention homelessness or food poverty. The sad
fact is that homelessness, housing insecurity and food insecurity are
as entrenched as they have ever been and are exacerbated by the
sustained rising prices we have experienced for the last two years.
However,
Australians statisticians are generally a grounded mob making
measured comment. So after reading their reports no-one is yelling
from their bedroom windows that the national economic sky is falling
on our heads — except Peter Dutton.
Australian
Bureau of Statistics
media
release
published 10 July 2024:
Reference
period: May
2024
Business
turnover in trend terms rose 0.2 per cent in May according to figures
released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
Robert
Ewing, ABS head of business statistics, said: “The pattern we have
seen in recent months continues as the business turnover 13-industry
aggregate remained flat in May.
“In
seasonally adjusted terms, most industries either fell or were flat
which resulted in the 13-industry aggregate falling 0.6 per cent.
“Softening
the fall, we saw larger rises in Arts and recreation, up 2.8 per
cent, and Information media and telecommunications, up 2.6 per cent.”
The
Arts and recreation growth was driven by an increase in gambling
activity. Information media and telecommunications was driven by the
Publishing (except internet and music publishing) subdivision as
demand for generative artificial intelligence continues to grow.
While
over at Roy
Morgan Research om 9 July 2024:
Finding
No. 5920
ANZ-Roy
Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 2.3pts to 79.0 after End of
Financial Year (EOFY) sales finish up; buying sentiment indicator has
largest weekly drop so far this year
ANZ-Roy
Morgan Consumer Confidence dropped 2.3pts to 79.0 this week after the
End of Financial Year (EOFY) Sales period finished at the end of June
after the buying sentiment indicator suffered its biggest weekly
decline so far this year – down a net 9% points from a week ago.
Looking
longer-term, Consumer Confidence has now spent a record 75 straight
weeks below the mark of 85 and is a large 5.7 points above the same
week a year ago, July 3-9, 2023 (73.3), but is now 2.8 points below
the 2024 weekly average of 81.8.
A
look at Consumer Confidence by State shows the index was down in New
South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia, and South Australia but
virtually unchanged in Queensland.
Views
on personal finances compared to a year ago were slightly worse off
this week while views on the Australian economy’s performance going
forward were virtually unchanged.
Current
financial conditions
Now
under a fifth of Australians, 19% (down 1ppt), say their families are
‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to 53%
(up 3ppts) that say their families are ‘worse off’.
Future
financial conditions
However,
views on personal finances over the next year were virtually
unchanged this week, with under a third of Australians, 31%
(unchanged) expecting their family to be ‘better off’ financially
this time next year while another 35% (down 1ppt) are expecting to be
‘worse off’.
Short-term
economic confidence
In
addition, only 8% (unchanged) expect ‘good times’ for the
Australian economy over the next twelve months compared to 36% (down
1ppt), that expect ‘bad times’.
Medium-term
economic confidence
Net
sentiment regarding the Australian economy in the longer term was
virtually unchanged this week with 12% (up 1ppt) of Australians
expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years
compared to just over a fifth, 21% (up 1ppt), expecting ‘bad
times’.
Time
to buy a major household item
There
was a big dip to net buying intentions this week after the End of
Financial Year (EOFY) Sales finished up with just over a fifth, 21%
(down 4ppts), of Australians saying now is a ‘good time to buy’
major household items (the biggest drop for this indicator so far
this year) while a majority of 51% (up 5ppts) say now is a ‘bad
time to buy’ major household items (the largest increase for this
indicator so far this year).
ANZ
Economist, Madeline Dunk, commented:
"ANZ-Roy
Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence dropped to its second lowest
level for the year. The decline was driven by a 9.0pt fall in the
‘time to buy a major household item’ subindex, following the
conclusion of end-of-financial year sales. This was the largest
weekly fall in the subindex since February 2023. There was also a
4.7pt drop in ‘current financial conditions’.
Across
the housing cohorts, confidence declined most for those paying off a
mortgage, perhaps due to talk about the possibility of an RBA rate
hike in August. Confidence also fell for households that own their
homes outright, while it was broadly stable for renters."
