Showing posts with label statistics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label statistics. Show all posts

Monday, 29 June 2020

ECONOMIC STATE OF PLAY 2020: "Under these latest forecasts Australia’s economy next year would be 0.7% smaller than it was last year. That is the first time since 1983 that our economy would be smaller than it was two years earlier."


The Guardian, June 2020:



Since the virus hit there has been a belief, maybe a hope, that this was just a momentary thing. 


Sure, the fall would be sharp and deep, but the recovery would be fast coming. 

You could hear it in the talk of “snap back” from the prime minister and treasurer. 

There was almost a sense that this recession is not really a recession – because this was driven by health, not the economy. The underlying economy, this argument went, was solid (the foundations were strong!), and thus once those restrictions were dispensed with, we would be back as good as ever. 

The problem was that the foundations were not strong (productivity growth, household incomes and the domestic private sector were all flat-lining). Just because the causes of this recession were unusual does not alter the fact that all recessions bring with them massive job losses and a fall in production. 

And this recession is the worst we have seen since the Great Depression. 

This week the IMF issued a revised set of estimates for GDP growth this year and the next. And there was some good news to be had.....

In April the IMF forecast our GDP this year would fall by 6.7%; now it estimates it will “only” fall by 4.5%. 

Unfortunately though, the treasurer neglected to point out that, other than Malaysia, Australia had the biggest growth forecast downgrade for 2021. 

In April the IMF estimated our economy would “bounce” back in 2021 with 6.1% growth; now it sees just 4%. 

Overall, the IMF’s changed estimates are such that they expect our economy at the end of 2021 to be virtually the same size they were expecting it to be in April. Hardly a ringing endorsement that government policies are doing better than expected. 

What this means is we need to very quickly disabuse ourselves of the notion that the economy will “snap back” in 2021 and all will be well. 

Under these latest forecasts Australia’s economy next year would be 0.7% smaller than it was last year. That is the first time since 1983 that our economy would be smaller than it was two years earlier. 

But even that rather hides the impact. 

In October the IMF estimated that for the next five years our economy would grow by around 2.5% each year. That is pretty miserable growth, but it was largely in line with the average since the GFC. 

But now, even with these new and improved estimates for our economy, by the end of next year we are still tracking to be 5.3% below where we were expected to be. 

That is the equivalent of around $105bn less being produced – or roughly the total amount produced in a year by the entire manufacturing industry. 

That is a chasm of economic waste. 

If the economy was to keep growing at (a very strong) 4%, it would take us until 2025 to get back level with where we were expected to be before the virus. If it grows at the more realistic 3% from 2022 onwards, we will not get back on par until well into the 2030s. [my yellow highlighting]

The debate very much needs to shift from the language being used in January and February. 

Forget “fundamentals being strong” and “sensible budget management”. It was spin then; it is just embarrassingly irrelevant now. 

We are in a deep recession and the political and policy debate needs to recognise this fact.


Monday, 22 June 2020

Prevalence of amphetamine possession and/or use in the NSW Northern Rivers region


On 7 May 2019 The Sydney Morning Herald reported that:

Amphetamine possession in NSW has risen by 250 per cent over the past decade….
The alarming statistics, which also showed possession in some parts of the state had skyrocketed by up to 1000 per cent, were presented on Tuesday at the special commission of inquiry into the drug ice commissioned by Premier Gladys Berejiklian.

The following statistics indicate the prevelance of amphetamine use and possession in the NSW Northern Rivers region in 2020.


NSW RECORDED CRIME STATISTICS APRIL 2019-MARCH 2020

Tweed LGA:

Possession &/or use of amphetamines rate per 100,000 head of population – 150.9

Byron Bay LGA:

Possession &/or use of amphetamines rate per 100,000 head of population – 147.5

Clarence Valley LGA:

Possession &/or use of amphetamines rate per 100,000 head of population – 135.

Lismore City LGA:

Possession &/or use of amphetamines rate per 100,000 head of population – 120.9

Richmond Valley LGA:

Possession &/or use of amphetamines rate per 100,000 head of population – 111.1

Ballina LGA:

Possession &/o use of amphetamines rate per 100,000 head of population – 79.6

Kyogle LGA:

Possession &/or use of amphetamines rate per 100,000 head of population – 45.1

The two year trend and annual percentage change for all seven Northern Rivers local government areas appears to be stable.

By way of general comparison, Coffs Harbour LGA on the mid-North Coast had a possession &/or use of amphetamines rate per 100,000 head of population of 177.7, Port Macquarie-Hastings LGA a rate of 132.3, Newcastle LGA 127.4, Sydney LGA 363.8 (up 25.4% on two year trend & annual percentage change) and New South Wales 103.1 (up 12.8% on two year trend & annual percentage change). 

After the COVID-19 global pandenic was declared on 11 March 2020 the six week period after social distancing was imposed (15 March – 26 April, 2020) saw overall drug possession fall by 4% in New South Wales.

Note:

Rate per 100,000 head of population does not necessarily represent a high number of incidents. For example, in 2019 the Clarence Valley possession &/or use of amphetamines rate per 100,000 head of population was 147.2 based on a total of 76 recorded incidents.

Saturday, 4 April 2020

Monday, 30 March 2020

COVID-19 confirmed cases count for Australia, states and territories from 29 March 2020


THIS POST IS NO LONGER UPDATING

Cumulative totals of confirmed COVID-19 infections across Australia, taken from official federal, state and territory sources and updated daily. 

Dates of the month are those of official departmental media releases and do not always reflect the day on which any confirmed infection increase occurred. The lag when it does occur is usually less than 24 hours.

Australia
  • 3,984 confirmed COVID-19 cases 29 March 2020 
  • 4,250 confirmed COVID-19 cases 30 March 2020 (increase of 266 cases)
  • 4,558 confirmed COVID-19 cases 31 March 2020 (increase of 308 cases)
  • 4,864 confirmed COVID-19 cases 1 April 2020 (increase of 306 cases)
  • 5,137 confirmed COVID-19 cases 2 April 2020 (increase of 273 cases)
  • 5,361 confirmed COVID-19 cases 3 April 2020 (increase of 224 cases)
  • 5,550 confirmed COVID-19 cases 4 April 2020 (increase of 189 cases)
  • 5,693 confirmed COVID-19 cases 4 April 2020 (increase of 143 cases)
  • 5,800 confirmed COVID-19 cases 6 April 2020 (increase 107 cases)*
  • 5,844 confirmed COVID-19 cases 7 April 2020, with 44 deaths 
*  Estimates only
QLD
  • 656 confirmed COVID-19 cases 29 March 2020 (increase of 31 cases)
  • 689 confirmed COVID-19 cases 30 March 2020 (increase of 33 cases)
  • 743 confirmed COVID-19 cases 31 March 2020 (increase of 55 cases)
  • 781 confirmed COVID-19 cases 1 April 2020 (increase of 38 cases)
  • 835 confirmed COVID-19 cases 2 April 2020 (increase of 54 cases)
  • 873 confirmed COVID-19 cases 3 April 2020 (increase of 39 cases)
  • 900 confirmed COVID-19 cases 4 April 2020 (increase of 27 cases)
  • 907 confirmed COVID-19 cases 5 April 2020 (increase of 9 cases)
  • 921  confirmed COVID-19 cases 6 April 2020 (increase of 14 cases)
NSW
  • 1,791 confirmed COVID-19 cases 29 March 2020 (increase of 174 cases)
  • 1,918 confirmed COVID-19 cases 30 March 2020 (increase of 127 cases)
  • 2,032 confirmed COVID-19 cases 31 March 2020 (increase of 96 cases)
  • 2,182 confirmed COVID-19 cases 1 April 2020 (increase of 105 cases)
  • 2,298 confirmed COVID-19 cases 2 April 2020 (increase of 116 cases)
  • 2,389 confirmed COVID-19 cases 3 April 2020 (increase of 91 cases)
  • 2,493 confirmed COVID-19 cases 4 April 2020 (increase of 104 cases)
  • 2,580 confirmed COVID-19 cases 5 April 2020 (increase of 87 cases)
  • 2,637 confirmed COVID-19 cases 6 April 2020 (increase of 57 cases)
ACT
  • 77 confirmed COVID-19 cases 29 March 2020 (increase of 6 cases)
  • 78 confirmed COVID-19 cases 30 March 2020 (increase of 1 case)
  • 80 confirmed COVID-19 cases 31 March 2020 (increase of 2 cases)
  • 84  confirmed COVID-19 cases 1 April 2020 (increase of 4 cases)*
  • 87 confirmed COVID-19 cases 2 April 2020 (increase of 3 cases)*
  • 91 confirmed COVID-19 cases 3 April 2020 (increase of 4 cases)
  • 93 confirmed COVID-19 cases 4 April 2020 (increase of 2 cases) 
  • 96 confirmed COVID-19 cases 5 April 2020 (increase of 3 cases) 
  • 96 confirmed COVID-19 cases 6 April 2020 (no increase overnight) 
* numbers being reassessed due to false positive tests

VIC
  • 769 confirmed COVID-19 cases 29 March 2020 (increase of 31 cases)
  • 821 confirmed COVID-19 cases 30 March 2020 (increase of 52 cases)
  • 917 confirmed COVID-19 cases 31 March 2020 (increase of 96 cases)
  • 968 confirmed COVID-19 cases 1 April 2020 (increase of 51 cases)
  • 1,036 confirmed COVID-19 cases 2 April 2020 (increase of 68 cases)
  • 1,084 confirmed COVID-19 cases 3 April 2020 (increase of 49 cases)
  • 1,115 confirmed COVID-19 cases 4 April 2020 (increase of 30 cases)
  • 1,135 confirmed COVID-19 cases 5 April 2020 (increase of 20 cases)
  • 1,158  confirmed COVID-19 cases 6 April 2020 (increase 23 of cases)*
*  Estimates only

TAS
  • 66 confirmed COVID-19 cases 29 March 2020 (increase of 4 cases)
  • 69 confirmed COVID-19 cases 30 March 2020 (increase of 3 cases)
  • 69 confirmed COVID-19 cases 31 March 2020 (no increase overnight)
  • 71 confirmed COVID-19 cases 1 April 2020 (increase of 2 cases)
  • 74 confirmed COVID-19 cases 2 April 2020 (increase of 2 cases)
  • 80 confirmed COVID-19 cases 3 April 2020 (increase of 6 cases)
  • 80 confirmed COVID-19 cases 4 April 2020 (no increase overnight)
  • 86 confirmed COVID-19 cases 5 April 2020 (increase of 4 cases)
  • 89 confirmed COVID-19 cases 5 6 April 2020 (increase of 3 cases)
SA
  • 299 confirmed COVID-19 cases 29 March 2020 (increase of 12 cases)
  • 305 confirmed COVID-19 cases 30 March 2020 (increase of 6 cases)
  • 337 confirmed COVID-19 cases 31 March 2020 (increase of 32 cases)
  • 367 confirmed COVID-19 cases 1 April 2020 (increase of 30 cases)
  • 385 confirmed COVID-19 cases 2 April 2020 (increase of 18 cases)
  • 396 confirmed COVID-19 cases 3 April 2020 (increase of 11 cases)
  • 407 confirmed COVID-19 cases 4 April 2020 (increase of 11 cases)
  • 409 confirmed COVID-19 cases 5 April 2020 (increase of 2 cases)
  • 411 confirmed COVID-19 cases 6 April 2020 (increase of 2 cases)
WA
  • 311 confirmed COVID-19 cases 29 March 2020 (increase of 33 cases)
  • 355 confirmed COVID-19 cases 30 March 2020 (increase of 44 cases)
  • 364 confirmed COVID-19 cases 31 March 2020 (increase of 9 cases)
  • 392 confirmed COVID-19 cases 1 April 2020 (increase of 28 cases)
  • 400 confirmed COVID-19 cases 2 April 2020 (increase of 8 cases)
  • 422 confirmed COVID-19 cases 3 April 2020 (increase of 22 cases)
  • 436 confirmed COVID-19 cases 4 April 2020 (increase of 14 cases
  • 453 confirmed COVID-19 cases 5 April 2020 (increase of 17 cases)
  • 460 confirmed COVID-19 cases 6 April 2020 (increase of 7 cases)
NT
  • 15 confirmed COVID-19 cases 29 March 2020 (no increase overnight)
  • 15 confirmed COVID-19 cases 30 March 2020 (no increase overnight)
  • 17 confirmed COVID-19 cases 31 March 2020 (increase of 2 cases)
  • 19 confirmed COVID-19 cases 1 April 2020 (increase of 2 cases)
  • 22 confirmed COVID-19 cases 2 April 2020 (increase of 3 cases)
  • 26 confirmed COVID-19 cases 3 April 2020 (increase of 4 cases)
  • 26 confirmed COVID-19 cases 4 April 2020 (no increase overnight)
  • 27 confirmed COVID-19 cases 4 April 2020 (increase of 1 case)
  • 28  confirmed COVID-19 cases 6 April 2020 (increase of 2 cases)
NSW Northern Rivers Region
  • confirmed COVID-19 cases 16 March 2020
  • confirmed COVID-19 cases 18 March 2020
  • confirmed COVID-19 cases 22 March 2020
  • 7 confirmed COVID-19 cases 23 March 2020
  • 17 confirmed COVID-19 cases 24 March 2020
  • 22 confirmed COVID-19 cases 26 March 2020
  • 25 confirmed COVID-19 cases 27 March 2020
  • 27 confirmed COVID-19 cases 30 March 2020
  • 38 confirmed COVID-19 cases 31 March 2020
  • 42 confirmed COVID-19 cases 1 April 2020 - Kyogle 0 cases, Richmond Valley 0 cases, Ballina 4 cases, Lismore 5 cases, Clarence Valley 8 cases, Tweed 12 cases, Byron Bay 13 cases.
  • 44 confirmed COVID-19 cases 2 April 2020 
  • 45 confirmed COVID-19 cases 3 April 2020
  • 46 confirmed COVID-19 caes 5 April 2020 - Kyogle 0 cases, Richmond Valley 4 cases, Ballina 4 cases, Lismore 5  cases, Clarence Valley 8 cases, Tweed 13 cases, Byron Bay 13 cases.
  • 47 confirmed COVID-19 cases 6 April 2020

Wednesday, 25 March 2020

Because the number of graphs are proliferating in mainstream and social media, here are two official Australian Government graphs


Because the number of graphs are proliferating in mainstream and social media, here are two official Australian Government graphs.


This graph shows the number of confirmed cases by notification date. Interpret the most recently reported new cases shown in the graph with caution as there can be delays in reporting.

Age breakdown as of 24 March 2020.

As of 24 March 2019 there were 2,136 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Australia and 8 have died from this novel viral infection. More than 143,000 COVID-19 tests had been conducted across Australia, according to the Australian Dept. of Health.

Monday, 23 March 2020

According to Roy Morgan Research Prime Minister Scott Morrison is distrusted by a majority of the Australian public - along with US President Donald Trump, Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton and disgraced former deputy-prime minister Barnaby Joyce


Roy Morgan Research, Finding No. 8333 Topic: Public Opinion Press ReleaseSpecial Poll Country: Australia New Zealand United States, 19 March 2020:

New Zealand PM Jacinda Ardern has highest ‘Net Trust Score’ of all political leaders while Australian PM Scott Morrison has a ‘Net Distrust Score’ to overcome

A special Roy Morgan survey on ‘Trust’ and ‘Distrust’ of government leaders shows New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern scores the highest ‘Net Trust Score’ of all – meaning the ‘Trust’ felt toward the New Zealand leader far outweighs the ‘Distrust’ – according to a special Roy Morgan Snap SMS Survey of 974 Australians aged 14+ conducted over the last two days.

People surveyed in Australia were asked ‘Which government leaders do you trust. List as many as you can think of?’ and also ‘Which government leaders do you distrust. List as many as you can think of?’ By subtracting distrust from trust we arrive at a Net Trust Score (if trust outweighs distrust) or Net Distrust Score (if distrust outweighs trust).

Women dominate the Net Trust Scores filling four out of the top five positions. Other leaders to score highly on Net Trust include Opposition Leader in the Senate Penny Wong, Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews, NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian and former ALP Deputy Leader Tanya Plibersek.

Top 10 Political Leaders by Net Trust Score



Source: Roy Morgan Snap SMS survey conducted on March 18-19, 2020.
Base: Australians aged 14+. n=974.

Scott Morrison has a ‘Net Distrust Score’ alongside colleague Peter Dutton

Prime Minister Scott Morrison is mentioned as a ‘Trusted’ leader by more Australians than any other. However, unfortunately for Morrison, there are far more Australians that have a ‘Distrust’ of the Prime Minister than ‘Trust’ him – leaving the Prime Minister with a ‘Net Distrust Score’

Other prominent political leaders that have ‘Net Distrust Scores’ include Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton, US President Donald Trump and former National Party Leader Barnaby Joyce.

Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says the New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s trust has been built on taking decisive actions in many challenging situations since becoming Prime Minister:

New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has demonstrated impressive leadership since taking New Zealand’s top job in responding with empathy to the Christchurch mosque shootings a year ago and the tragedy caused by the eruption of White Island last year. Most recently, Ardern’s decisive leadership was demonstrated with New Zealand becoming the first country to impose harsh restriction on all foreign nationals from entering the country in response to the global COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic.

In contrast our own Prime Minister Scott Morrison faced a ‘wall of criticism’ for his handling of the Summer bushfire crisis and this has continued for many with his handling of the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic.

Given the current uncertainties, it is important Australians trust our Prime Minister. Although the results show Morrison is trusted by a wide variety of Australians there are far more that distrust the PM meaning he has a significant ‘Net Distrust Score’.

One of the most striking results of this unprompted research assessing opinions of political leaders is the leading performance of many of Australia’s female politicians. As well as New Zealand PM Jacinda Ardern on top, Opposition Leader in the Senate Penny Wong, NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian and former ALP Deputy Leader Tanya Plibersek are all in the top five. Former Prime Minister Julia Gillard is also not far behind in eighth position despite living in the United Kingdom for the past few years.

Additional detail on the reasons Australians have given for ‘Trusting’ and also ‘Distrusting’ this diverse range of political leaders will be released in coming days.”

Thursday, 27 February 2020

Morrison has now slumped to the lowest likeability of any Australian leader since Andrew Peacock in 1990


The Canberra Times, 18 February 2020:

Prime Minister Scott Morrison, whose popularity has taken a big hit over the summer. Picture: Karleen Minney

It will be no surprise to Scott Morrison that his handling of the bushfires was a major political setback, and the latest set of polling only confirms the extent. The question will be whether the mud sticks.

Morrison sailed through last year's election on a high, with a likeability rating of 5.1, not great by historic standards, but higher than any party leader since Labor's Kevin Rudd after winning the 2007 election.

He has now slumped to the lowest of any leader since Andrew Peacock in 1990, and below the record low that Bill Shorten put on the scoreboard as Labor leader last year. Shorten had a dismal likeability rating of 3.97 in the ANU Election Study; Morrison has now scored 3.92 in a January poll by the ANU's Centre for Social Research.

It was personal. Half the people polled were asked to think about the performance of Scott Morrison when judging how good or bad a job the government had done on the bush fires; the other half was told to think about the performance of the government. You guessed it. When prompted by reference to Morrison, 64 per cent said the government had done a bad or very bad job, compared with 59 per cent when thinking about the government more broadly.

Anthony Albanese moved up in popularity, from 4.87 in June to 5.04 now - the highest of any Labor leader since Kevin Rudd at his peak in 2007, and higher than Mark Latham and Paul Keating.

The same message came from the Newspoll, which showed Labor overtaking the Coalition in the preferred prime minister ranks in January, for the first time since a brief hit from the Liberal leadership turmoil in August 2018. In September last year, 50 per cent of voters preferred Morrison for prime minister, against Anthony Albanese's 31 per cent, according to Newspoll. By January, Albanese was on 43 per cent and Morrison 39. Worse, Morrison's satisfaction rating went through the floor.

"I've got a thick skin," Morrison said on Monday when asked about criticism of him at the bush fire relief concert. "And I understand that over the period of the summer, you know, that people felt really raw about things ... My response is just to do things and get things done."….

But to date, Morrison has essentially failed to present any kind of ambitious reform agenda or coherent plan. As a result his Prime Ministership has turned into an endless round of inadequate and misguided responses to disaster, crisis and scandal…...

In the ANU survey just after the election last year, 45 per cent of people said the government should allow new coal mines; now only 37 per cent think so. As banks and big investors stop lending to thermal coal and turn their attention also to reducing investments in oil and gas, Morrison needs to align himself with the inevitable and start leading on new ideas for regional and remote communities.

He needs a better idea than the only one he seems to have rattling around in the top drawer - throwing more cash at the regions. Cash is handy, but it is not a reason for confidence or hope.

Wednesday, 26 February 2020

It appears that almost singlehandedly Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison may have sunk his own government.


"Around 77.8 per cent of the population reported indirect exposure, by having a friend or family member that had property damage; friend/family that had property threatened; had their travel/holiday plans affected; were exposed to the physical effects of smoke; or felt anxious or worried. This equates to around 15.4 million adults." ["Exposure and the impact on attitudes of the 2019-20 Australian Bushfires" 2020]

In January 2020 the ANU Centre for Social Research and Methods and the Social Research Centre collected data from more than three thousand Australian adults from the probability sample ‘Life in Australia’ about their exposure to the bushfires that occurred across the spring and summer of late 2019 and into early 2020. 

Researchers also asked about a range of attitudes towards the environment, institutions, and political issues. 

Data from the January 2020 ANU poll was able to be linked to previous polls at the individual level.

This is the result........

Biddle, N, Edwards, B, Herz, D & Makkai, T, (2020) "Exposure and the impact on attitudes of the 2019-20 Australian Bushfires":

Abstract 

The bushfires that occurred over the 2019/20 Australian spring and summer were unprecedented in scale and wide in their geographic impact. 

Between 20 January and 3 February 2020, the ANU Centre for Social Research and Methods and the Social Research Centre collected data from more than three thousand Australian adults about their exposure to the bushfires, as well as a range of other attitudes and beliefs. 

We estimate that the vast majority of Australians (78.6 per cent) were impacted in one way or another either directly, through their family/friends, or through the physical effects of smoke. 

Furthermore, we estimate that around 2.9 million adult Australians had their property damaged, their property threatened, or had to be evacuated. 

This is the first estimate of self-reported impacts on that scale from a nationally representative, probability-based survey. 

Our survey findings also show that subjective wellbeing amongst the Australian population has declined since the start of spring 2019, people are less satisfied with the direction of the country, and have less confidence in the Federal Government. 

People are more likely, however, to think that the environment and climate change are issues and a potential threat to them, with a significant decline in the proportion of people who support new coal mines. 

By linking individuals through time, we are also able to show that some of these changes are attributable to exposure to the bushfires.

DOCUMENT Exposure_and_impact_on_attitudes_of_the_2019-20_Australian_Bushfires_publication.pdf (PDF685.59 KB):


General satisfaction with life before and after the bushfire season 

In the October 2019 ANUpoll 65.2 per centsaid they were either satisfied or very satisfied with the way the country is heading. By January 2020 this had declined to 59.5 per cent of adult Australians. 

Over the same period, there was a small (but significant) average decline in life satisfaction from 7.05 (on a scale from 0 to 10) to 6.9. 

Levels of confidence in institutions 

Confidence in the federal government declined by 10.9 percentage points from October 2019 to 27.3 per cent by January 2020. 

Confidence in other institutions was quite stable over the period, and higher than for the Federal Government. In January 2020: 

• 48.8 per cent of the population had confidence in the public service (52.1 per cent in October 2019); 

• 73.8 per cent had confidence in the police (75.8 per cent in October 2019); 

• 40.4 per cent had confidence in the State/Territory Government where they lived (not asked in 2019); and 

• 93.0 per cent reported confidence in organisations responsible for firefighting in regional or rural areas (not asked in 2019). 

Voting patterns between October 2019 and January 2020 

The per cent of people who said they would vote for the Coalition if an election was held that day declined from 40.4 per cent in October 2019 to 34.8 per cent in January 2020. 

The largest relative increase (8.8 per cent to 10.5 per cent) was for those who would vote for a party other than the Coalition, Labor, or the Greens. 

Views on party leaders between June 2019 and January 2020 

Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s average rating declined from 5.25 to 3.92 out of 10. 

Leader of the Opposition Anthony Albanese’s average rating increased from 4.87 to 5.04. 

Changes in attitudes towards the environment 

49.7 per cent of people reported aspects of the environment as the most important issue or second most important issue facing Australia in January 2020 compared to 41.5 per cent in October 2019. 

Reporting fires, natural disasters or extreme weather as the most or second most important issue were close to non-existent in October 2019. This increased to 10.2 percent by January 2020. 

Concern about most specific issues increased from 2008 to January 2020, with the greatest increase for: 

• loss of native vegetation or animal species or biodiversity (a 13 percentage point increase); 

• drought and drying (a 9 percentage point increase). 

Support for new coal mines have declined since the May 2019 election. In June 2019 45.3 per cent said yes to the question ‘In your opinion, should the Government allow the opening of news coal mines?’. This had declined to 37.0 per cent in January 2020.

Capital cities versus the rest 

There is majority support by residents in both capital and those living outside of capital cities that global warming is very serious, and that global warming will be a threat to them. These views are more strongly held by capital city residents. 

Only 35.6 per cent of capital and 40.1 per cent of non-capital city residents support new coal mines and there is no statistically significant difference in views between the two. 

Did exposure to the bushfires affect changes in satisfaction, confidence or voting intentions? 

Direct or indirect exposure to bushfires did not statistically affect changes in life satisfaction between October and January. 

Indirect exposure to the bushfires affected levels of confidence in government and satisfaction with the direction of the country. Those exposed reported greater declines in both confidence and satisfaction. 

Although there was no significant direct affect from the bushfires on reporting a change in voting intention, exposure to the bushfires was associated with a significant decline in the likeability of Prime Minister Scott Morrison......

It appears that almost singlehandedly Australian Prime Minister & Liberal MP for Cook Scott John Morrison - aka #ScottyFromMarketing - may have sunk his own government.

Monday, 10 February 2020

Australian Newspaper Cross-Platform Audience Numbers for the 12 months to December 2019 are not good news for News Corp


This Roy Morgan survey of Cross-Platform Audiences covers the number of Australians who have read or accessed individual newspaper content via print, web or app from December 2018 to December 2019.

Print is calculated as net readership in an average 7 days and digital as net website visitation and app usage in an average 7 days. 

Of the 14 prominent mastheads in this cross-platform survey all had experienced readership decline in the 12 months to December 2019, with the exception of the Financial Review (up 14.1%), The Sydney Morning Herald (up 4.1%) and The Age (up 1.2%).


The worst decline in audience numbers occured in the News Corp mastheads.

Percentage Change In Cross-Platform Audience

Adelaide Advertiser  -4.4%

Canberra Times  -14.1% 
Courier-Mail  -1.4% 
Daily Telegraph  -15.5% 
Financial Review  14.1% 
Herald Sun  -7.7% 
Mercury  -3.5% 
Newcastle Herald  -5.3% 
Sunday Times  -4.0% 
Sydney Morning Herald  4.1% 
The Age  1.2% 
The Australian  -4.3%
The Saturday Paper  -7.6% 
West Australian  -6.6%

In the period December 2018 to December 2019 the print versions of all 14 mastheads experienced a degree of readership decline.

News Corp has reported a decline in global revenue and profits in the last quarter ending 31 December 2019, with revenue falling by 5.6% to $2.8 billion. 

According to Mumbrella, advertising revenue was down 5% across the business, with News Corp putting the blame largely on a “weakness in the print advertising market, primarily in Australia”.