Fifth Annual NSW Statewide Street Count of homeless people sleeping rough - results for the Northern Rivers region from Clarence Valley to the NSW-Qld border

TheEcho, 10 May 2024:

Byron Shire topped the state with a 16 per cent increase in rough sleepers, but the count also showed significant increases in numbers across Tweed, Ballina and Lismore shires.

While Sydney has remained stable with a one per cent increase it is the regional areas experiencing the biggest surge in homelessness in the past year. The 2024 street count found 2,037 people sleeping rough in 2024 compared to 1,623 people last year.

‘The sobering street count figures again paint a harrowing picture of homelessness and street sleeping across our state.,’ said Minister for Homelessness Rose Jackson.

‘While levels of street sleeping have stabilised in Sydney, we are still seeing an unprecedented increase of homelessness in many of our regional towns. We don’t just need data to tell us this – our regional communities are feeling this every day.’

The impact of climate disasters like the 2019-20 Black Summer bushfires, the 2022 floods, the rising interest rates, cost of living pressures and a shortage of rental homes are just some of the factors that are continuing to drive homelessness and street sleeping.

It is important to note that these are just the people sleeping on the street and in their cars, they do not reflect the number of people who are homeless and for example are staying with family or sleeping on friend’s couches etc.

Lismore saw an increase of rough sleepers jump from 40 in 2023 to 64 in 2024. Tweed Valley went from 145 to 174 in 2024, Ballina went from 30 to 63 and Byron Shire went from 300 to 348.....

Read the full article at:

https://www.echo.net.au/2024/05/byron-shire-sees-biggest-increase-in-rough-sleepers/

According to NSW Government Communities & Justice, 2024 NSW Statewide Street Count: Technical Paper, published on 8 May 2024:

Street counts took place between 1 February and 1 March 2024, in more than 400 towns and suburbs in 76 local government areas (LGA) across NSW.

Half of the counts took place in the evening, scheduled between 10:00pm and 3:00am, with the remaining half occurring in the morning between 3:30am and 9am.

Over 300 local organisations either consulted in the planning phase or participated in the delivery of street counts. Partners included Community Housing Providers, local councils and Specialist Homelessness Services, as well Aboriginal organisations, Local Health Districts, local community groups, and Police.

In 2024 in the Northern Rivers region local government areas (LGAs) with the largest decreases in people sleeping rough were:

Richmond Valley - 3 rough sleepers as of 22.02.24 at 5 locations. Down from 19 persons in 2023.

Clarence Valley - 58 rough sleepers as of 20.02.24 at 6 locations. Down from 69 persons in 2023.

As for the other five LGAs:

Kyogle Shire - had no rough sleepers as of 23.02.24 and zero persons in 2023

Ballina Shire - 63 rough sleepers as of 28.02.24 at 6 locations. Up from 30 persons in 2023

Lismore City - 64 rough sleepers as of 23.02.24 at 5 locations. Up from 40 persons in 2023

Tweed Valley - 174 rough sleepers as of 27.02.25 at 15 locations. Up from 145 persons in 2023

Byron Shire - 348 rough sleepers as of 29.02.24 at 9 locations. Up from 300 persons in 2023.

Across all 400 NSW sites counted in February 2024 there were 2,037 people considered homeless and sleeping rough. This represents a 26 per cent (414 person) increase compared to 2023.

 

Yet another government report - this time the "State of the Housing System 2024"

SBS News, 6 May 2024:

The median rent across the nation is $627 a week, ranging from $547 in Hobart to $770 in Sydney, according to property data provider CoreLogic.

The regional median was $540, driven by rises in house rents in regional Queensland and Tasmania.

Rents are going up faster in areas between 30 and 40km from city centres, CoreLogic head of research Eliza Owen reported.

"Part of the reason for the re-acceleration in rents nationally could be due to renters being forced into more affordable, peripheral housing markets as they become priced out of more desirable and central metropolitan locations," she said.

But supply and demand pressures remain high across the nation and migration levels implied there were at least 200,000 new households in Australia, while only 173,000 new dwellings were completed to September last year, Owen said....

Median rents were more than $1,000 in nine areas, with adjoining Cottesloe-Claremont suburbs in beachside Perth the only area outside Sydney to command four figures.

Rents in Pittwater, almost 25km from the CBD on Sydney's northern beaches, were the highest at $1,335 per week, coming down half a percentage point since a peak in March.

Rents were still up 8.4 per cent annually in Pittwater, in line with the 8.5 per cent national increase.

The data comes after the National Housing Supply and Affordability Council launched its inaugural report on Friday, painting a dire portrait of Australia's housing system.....

National Housing Suppply and Affordibility Council, State of the Housing System 2024, 3 May 2024:

Forward

There is no denying the housing crisis we are in. It is a longstanding crisis, fundamentally driven by the failure to deliver enough housing of all types – from social housing through to market home ownership. At its heart, this crisis is about insufficient supply, but many contributing factors are making it more acute – the resumption of migration at pace, rising interest rates, skills shortages, elevated construction company insolvencies, weak consumer confidence and cost inflation to name just a few. These all combine to create an environment in which prices and rents are growing faster than wages, rental vacancies are near all-time lows, 169,000 households are on public housing waiting lists, 122,000 people are experiencing homelessness and projected housing supply is very low.

Australia’s housing market is far from healthy. An unhealthy market has periods of rampant price growth, is unable to produce enough supply to meet demand, is overly reliant on an unsupported private market to address most of Australia’s shelter needs, creates scarcity and cannot match the rich expanse of demand with a breadth of housing choice.....

Executive Summary

Housing affordability worsened in 2023, from

already challenging levels

Housing affordability worsened in 2023. The worsening was widespread, occurring across states and territories, cities and regions, income levels, age groups and tenure types.

Housing affordability deteriorated significantly for mortgage holders. Mortgage interest rates rose by an average of 125 basis points in 2023, and the average mortgage for owner-occupiers reached $624,000. Since the first increase in the Reserve Bank of Australia cash rate in May 2022, minimum scheduled repayments for borrowers have increased by as much as 60 per cent.

Aspiring homeowners experienced a decline in their ability to purchase a home. It takes the average prospective homeowner around 10 years to save a 20 per cent deposit for an average dwelling. Even with a deposit, only 13 per cent of the homes sold in 2022–23 were affordable for a median income household.

Renters in the private market experienced a sharp rise in rents. Advertised rents increased by 8 per cent in 2023 and have increased by around 35 per cent since the start of the decade. Finding a rental property is increasingly difficult. Nationally, the rental vacancy rate is 1.6 per cent – around its lowest level on record and well below the rate considered to reflect a balanced rental market of around 3–4 per cent. In some parts of the country, including some capital cities, it is as low as 0.5 per cent.

Worsening affordability placed additional pressure on demand for non-market housing. The number of ‘greatest needs’ households on public housing waiting lists rose by 2.4 per cent in the 2022–23 financial year. Waiting lists for First Nations housing rose by 10 per cent. Service providers reported a rise in demand for homelessness services and crisis accommodation.

Many households have made difficult trade-offs in the face of rising housing costs, including reducing spending on other essential household items; living further away from places of employment, education, and social and family networks; or living in overcrowded dwellings or in housing with inadequate or expensive heating or cooling options.

Worsening affordability is particularly problematic for vulnerable groups, including low-income households, single parents, young people, single pensioners, those fleeing domestic or family violence, people with disability, and First Nations Australians. Declining rental affordability correlates with an increase in homelessness.

Worsening affordability is contributing to poorer housing outcomes for First Nations Australians. First Nations households are half as likely to own their home, 6-times more likely to live in social housing, 3-times more likely to live in overcrowded dwellings and almost 9-times more likely to experience homelessness compared to non-Indigenous Australians. These poor housing outcomes impact on health and wellbeing, access to education and employment, and connection to community. Without targeted measures, undertaken in partnership with First Nations people, housing outcomes under the National Agreement on Closing the Gap are unlikely to be met.

This report tells us that:

More than 30 per cent of Australians rent their home. The number of renters is increasing, and those who are renting are doing so for longer. Renting is the only viable tenure option for an increasing share of the population. Australia’s rental system provides only limited tenure security and other rights to renters. Australia needs regulatory frameworks that support tenants’ rights and address the need for better tenure security. More institutional investment in rental housing could provide tenants with more rental options and add to the dwelling supply.....

The evidence base indicates that Australia’s tax framework influences the housing system in ways that have implications for supply and affordability. Tax arrangements could potentially be better calibrated to support housing supply and affordability outcomes. Australia’s tax system also favours home ownership over other forms of housing tenure, which can widen inequality between those who can and cannot access homeownership. A gradual transition to a more consistent taxation system across tenure types may contribute to a more equitable housing system.

Non-market housing, such as social housing and affordable housing, is essential infrastructure. It reduces homelessness and the incidence of poverty, supports economic productivity and labour market participation, and fosters more cohesive and sustainable communities. In some remote areas of Australia, social housing is the main form of available rental accommodation. There are federal, state and territory policies that will support the delivery of more non-market housing over the National Housing Accord period. However, levels of non-market housing are forecast to remain low relative to history and in comparison to other advanced economies, and lower than demand....

Supply of social housing

Australia’s social housing supply has fallen short of demand (Van den Nouwelant, et al., 2022). From the 1940s to the 1980s, government housing agencies built large volumes of new public housing (Chart 2.12). Instead of focusing mainly on the direct provision of non-market housing, governments have shifted towards a model of providing rent assistance payments to enable more households to rent in the private market. The provision of social housing is now primarily focused on supporting people in greatest need.

The number of non-market dwellings has stagnated as a result. This has contributed to a one-third decline in social housing as a share of the housing stock, from a peak of 5.6 per cent in 1991 to 3.8 per cent in 2021 (Chart 2.13). This indicates a reduction in the availability of adequate housing for lower-income and disadvantaged households. However, recent policy measures, such as the Housing Australia Future Fund and new public housing commitments by state and territory governments, mean that a rise in the current levels of investment in non-market housing is expected in coming years....

The report also draws attention to the following:

Box 2.1: Climate-related disasters

The housing system is inflexible when responding to natural disasters. The increased frequency and severity of natural disasters are adding to the demand for new houses to be built and for repairs on existing housing, often in higher-cost locations such as regional and remote areas. Rental markets are also affected when homeowners are forced to rent accommodation while their homes are repaired. Regional New South Wales was severely affected by its worst recorded flood in February 2022. In Lismore, 89 per cent of housing stock was severely impacted and 3 per cent was destroyed (Lismore City Council, 2022). Over the quarter to March 2022, house rents in Lismore increased 22 per cent to $550 a week. This almost matched the level of Sydney house rents, which were $600 in the same quarter (Domain, 2022). The supply response following natural disasters is slow due to the time taken to process insurance claims and increases in demand for labour and materials, leaving many residents without appropriate housing, sometimes for years after the event. The rebuilding following the Kimberley floods in Western Australia was significantly delayed due to its remote location and the pre-existing statewide shortage of tradespeople, which left people living in temporary shelters months after the floods (ABC News, 2023b). The impact of natural disasters has a lasting effect on housing in affected areas; for example, in the form of lower house prices due to a heightened risk of a natural disaster re-occurring. After 2017 floods in Lismore, property values normalised in 6 months. However, by March 2023, a year after the floods in the Northern Rivers, house prices in the most affected suburbs had fallen by 22–30 per cent – more than the regional average of 19 per cent (CoreLogic, 2023). The increasing severity and frequency of natural disasters could produce larger and longer-lasting effects on the housing system. [my yellow highlighting]

At Page 151 of this report is this section: 8.1 The Council has identified 10 areas of focus for improving housing system outcomes.

Read it for the record but don't raise your hopes.

 

This comprehensive and at times overly optimistic report can be found at:

https://nhsac.gov.au/sites/nhsac.gov.au/files/2024-05/state-of-the-housing-system-2024.pdf

Hot showers for rough sleepers now available in Brunswick Heads, Northern Rivers NSW

Reflections Holiday Park, Brunswick Heads
IMAGE: Trip Advisor

The Echo, 17 November 2023:

Hot showers are something that many people take for granted, but for those sleeping rough they can be difficult to access.

In an effort to ease this problem, Reflections Holiday Parks and Byron Shire Council have partnered to jointly fund the installation of hot water at the amenity block at Banner Park Reserve, Brunswick Heads.

The aim of the initiative is to provide hot water to help people who are sleeping rough. Hot water is now available daily in the public amenity block at Banner Park Reserve between 6am and 11am. To support water conservation, showers will run on a timer.

Banner Park Reserve is maintained by Reflections for the local community and is part of the 15 acres of public reserves that Reflections looks after in the Byron Shire. Reflections uses proceeds from its holiday parks to provide nature reserves, BBQs and amenities for the local community.

Business for good

Reflections CEO Nick Baker said the role of Reflections, the only holiday park group in Australia that is a certified social enterprise, was not only to nurture land on behalf of the NSW public but also to do ‘business for good’ as a profit-for-purpose organisation.

‘As a Crown Land Manager and a social enterprise, Reflections reinvests profit from holiday parks into public nature reserves for the enjoyment of the local community, and we also partner with community organisations on initiatives that benefit the community,’ Mr Baker said.

‘We are really pleased to partner with Byron Shire Council to help the local community and look forward to continuing to work together.’....

Australian Politics in 2023: The pros and cons of rent control proposals

 

Academia invites itself into a contentious debate being had across sections of the national electorate.....

University of New South Wales (UNSW) media release via Medianet, 22 June 2023:

Proposed by the Australian Greens, a two-year emergency rent cap prevents rent increases, providing relief for tenants. However, it may lead to landlords selling their properties. Photo: Getty

 Would you benefit from a rent freeze?

 

 

UNSW

 

 

Mandated rent freezes, one of the rental crisis solutions proposed by the Australian Greens, seek to address the urgent needs of renters. The solution involves introducing an immediate two-year emergency freeze on rent, followed by the implementation of a rent cap where rent increases are capped within certain limits. 

This means that regardless of market fluctuations and rising interest rates, tenants could find solace in knowing their rent payments will remain relatively stable and stress less about their financial situation.  

“Rent increases have been getting much larger and more common,” said Dr Chris Martin, Senior Research Fellow in the City Futures Research Centre at UNSW Arts, Design & Architecture. 

How much have rents gone up? 

Research has shown that the national average of asking rents has increased by 11 per cent in the last 12 months. Renters in Sydney have seen the median average weekly rent for new tenancies soar by 20 per cent over the past year to $650 per week.  

“When properties are re-let, a new tenancy commences and 95 per cent are getting a higher rent than for the previous tenancy,” said Dr Martin.

“Most are going for at least 10 per cent more than previously let. About 75 per cent of properties with existing tenancies have recorded rent increases over the past 12 months, and about 25 per cent are getting increases of more than 10 per cent.” 

With statistics such as these, Dr Martin said a rent freeze, and a subsequent rent cap, would protect existing tenants from rents rising to similar levels.  

Dr Martin explained that significant rental increases are a crucial price signal to property owners. This should encourage the supply of new rental properties, ideally from sources outside the existing stock, such as newly constructed dwellings or currently unused and underused properties like second homes and Airbnb listings.  

“The goal is to expand the rental market by increasing available housing options.  

“That price signal is currently going into the existing stock; as landlords increase rent prices, tenants are being pushed out of their existing homes. That brings the property to the market but also means there’s another tenant looking for a lower-cost rental property or are being made homeless.  

“By regulating rent increases for existing tenants, the price signal from the new tenancy market is directed into sources of genuine new supply,” said Dr Martin. 

This approach aims to ensure that the rental market expands in a sustainable manner while simultaneously addressing the immediate needs of tenants facing displacement and housing instability.  

Rent freeze policy pitfalls  

While the rent freeze policy is designed to alleviate financial stress on renters, crucial questions remain about the impact on landlords.  

With interest rates on the rise and mortgage repayments increasing, the policy could have serious implications for homeowners.  

Dr Peter Swan, a Professor in the School of Banking & Finance at UNSW Business School, said the rental crisis would become “far worse for tenants and landlords” if the policy came into force.  

“While it is true that tenants who are not evicted may gain temporarily, tenants as a whole lose as rental accommodation is withdrawn, fewer new places are provided, and maintenance of rent-controlled housing deteriorates.   

“Rental rates rise due to restricted supply, while landlords with sitting tenants suffer. Eventually, a black market evolves with ‘protected’ tenants unable to move and with the rampant use of sizeable ‘key money’ paid by prospective new tenants.   

“The latest version of the Residential Tenancies Act 1997 in the ACT reveals that pre-existing rent control in Canberra has doubled in its severity in 2019.  It now limits rent increases to no more than 10 per cent above the increase in the rent component of the ACT Consumer Price Index (CPI). It was previously 20 per cent.   

“As a result, it has left some landlords no option but to sell their properties, leaving evicted tenants back on a tighter rental market.” 

Prof. Swan explained how another example can be seen in the Californian Tenant Protection Act of 2019, which imposed a 10 per cent cap on rental increases.   

According to a 2018 analysis by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) on San Francisco legislation, rent control resulted in a 15 per cent reduction in rental supply as landlords converted their properties to exempt building types, subsequently causing a 5.1 per cent rise in rents.  

“The repercussions of these circumstances result in a significant portion of tenants being at risk of eviction and will face the challenge of re-entering an increasingly competitive rental market, where they may be required to pay, effectively, a substantial increase in rent in the form of a bribe to secure a new place.  

“Interest rates will persistently climb until we align with the rates of countries like the US, UK, and others. As a result, these escalations will lead to even higher rental prices and if restrictions were imposed on these unavoidable increases, the current inventory of rental housing will diminish even more,” said Prof. Swan.  

A possible solution: adopting other rental practices  

The rent freeze policy has both positive and negative implications, and it has prompted the need to examine the delicate balance between the needs of renters and the challenges faced by landlords.  

“The solution to the crisis lies in boosting the housing supply. However, governments and councils commonly exhibit significant reluctance when it comes to permitting new developments or streamlining bureaucratic processes plagued by excessive regulations and prolonged delays,” said Prof Swan.  

However, governments and councils often hesitate to approve new developments or streamline bureaucratic processes, which can create housing supply bottlenecks. This begs the question: should we turn to international renting practices and consider alternative methods?  

Dr Martin said: “All these variations on rent regulations should be on the table. 

“Scotland implemented a rent freeze in September 2022, and in April 2023 moved to a rent cap of 3 per cent, in most cases. For years, most Canadian provinces have had rent caps - called ‘guidelines’ there - that limits rent increases to a certain percentage rate set by the government. 

“Ireland has a system of ‘rent pressure zones’, if a local government area records increases in median rents above a certain threshold for successive quarters, a cap kicks in, currently 2 per cent, and not more than once in 12 months.”  

It's the state and territory governments more than the federal government which are going to decide renters ability to attain & retain housing in the near future

 

In Australia there is evidence to suggest that by 2022 there were est. 640,000 Australian households whose housing needs were not being met. 

These households are either experiencing homelessness, in overcrowded homes or spending over 30% of their income on rent.

This unmet housing need is projected to increase to 940,000 households in 2041.

In a November 2022 the Community Housing Industry Association released a report noting the unmet need in states/territories/regions by number and percentage of all households. 

CHIA, Nov 2022, “Quantifying Australia’s unmet housing need: A national snapshot”, p.2

On 29 June 2022 The Guardian reported:

The public housing waiting list across all jurisdictions rose by more than 8,000 households last year, from 155,141 to 163,508. Most of the increase was among households considered “in greatest need”. While for the last nine years social housing stock remained static at est. 4.2% of all housing stock.

The National Cabinet meeting last Friday, 28 April 2023, ended with these joint announcements by the Prime Minister and state & territories leaders, according to ABC News:

• National cabinet has endorsed $2.2b in measures to strengthen Medicare

• The announcements include expanding the nursing workforce to improve access to primary care and incentives for doctors to stay open for longer hours

• Housing ministers will develop a proposal outlining ways to strengthen renters rights, which will be dealt with by national cabinet later in the year

• Work will be undertaken to improve the migration system through increased visa processing capacity and expanding pathways to permanent residency for skilled workers. [my yellow highlighting]

What is clear is that although there may be the intention that a guiding statement on renters rights will eventually be produced by the National Cabinet, it will be left to individual states and territories to decide how and to what degree renters rights will be strengthened.

As for the built-to-rent component of any national plan to increase housing stock, Master Builders Australia sent out a media release immediately after this National Cabinet meeting welcoming a national approach to reforms to address the housing crisis which stated in part:

Master Builders Australia CEO Denita Wawn said the decision to tackle infrastructure investment, planning reforms to increase housing supply and affordability alongside sustainable growth across states and territories is an important signal for the industry.

“Industry will work closely with the Planning Ministers and National Cabinet to ensure all options are on the table and there are no unintended consequences of other reforms that may dampen this effort,” said Ms Wawn.

The Commonwealth Government also announced a series of other measures to boost investment for increasing housing supply including: increasing the depreciation rate [from 2% to 4%] for eligible new build-to-rent projects, and reducing the withholding tax rate for eligible fund payments for managed investment trusts to foreign residents on income from newly constructed residential build-to-rent properties.

However, Master Builders Australia went on to make an ambit claim for further reform:

“More needs to be done to speed up the delivery of new housing in the medium and high-density part of the market over the short term. Government efforts to expand the stock of build-to-rent will provide welcome support.

“The challenge will be to make sure that we put downward pressure on building and construction costs to increase output.

“Builders continue to face regulatory burdens and prolonged delays in approvals for building applications, occupation certificates and land titles. Additionally, land shortages in the wrong places, high developer charges and inflexible planning laws are restricting opportunities to meet demand, speed up project timelines, and minimise costs to both builders and their clients,” Ms Wawn said.

Master Builders’ Delivering the housing needs for all Australians recommends policies around housing supply, workforce, supply chain risk and cost pressures, simplifying regulatory settings that support investment in housing and business productivity.

The Property Council of Australia is also in favour of what it classes on its website News & Research page as the emerging build-to-rent sector.

It sees this sector as having the potential to deliver 150,000 new build-to-rent homes into the rental market in the next 10 years (by 2043) and says of a report it commissioned from Ernst Young and published on 4 April 2023:

.. estimates that the current size of the build-to-rent sector in Australia is $16.87 billion (this equates to roughly 0.2 per cent of the total value of the residential housing sector), with the expectation that this value will continue to grow in the coming years. If it reached just 3 per cent of the residential market, it could be worth $290 billion.

In comparison, the build-to-rent sector comprises of 5.4 per cent of the total value of the residential sector in the UK and 12 per cent in the US.

The Housing Industry Association also issued a media release on 28 April 2023 welcoming the National Cabinet’s agreement today to support a range of reforms to address housing supply, stating:

HIA’s Deputy Managing Director – Industry and Policy, Jocelyn Martin said the decision to tackle planning reforms to increase housing supply and affordability ultimately leads to more affordable rental accommodation and provides the capacity to deliver social housing without impacting housing supply more broadly.

On the part of federal and state governments there appears to be an aversion to their having direct ownership of any project building social housing and, on the part of finance and construction industries – along with property developers and investors – there appears to be a similar aversion to such a direct supply of social housing by the first two tiers of government.

Perhaps the smell of desperation in the air – with 243 construction businesses put into insolvency by the Australian Securities & Investment Commission (ASIC) in March 2023 alone, joining an unspecified number of other construction, registered property investment and/or property development corporations within the January to March 1,879 businesses-strong insolvency list – has the National Cabinet seeking to resuscitate more than one bird with its housing funding commitments. 

Note: Searchable ASIC list can be found at

https://publishednotices.asic.gov.au/browsesearch-notices/

All these government and non-government actors appear to be suggesting that: after relaxing planning laws; increasing investment opportunities along with potential profits for all classes of investors; and the possibility for individuals, partnerships & corporations to access grants & other benefits in the proposed $10 billion Housing Australia Future Fund; then market forces will inevitably push rental costs down once housing supply increases even though the most optimistic rendition of proposed supply is unlikely to fully meet the nation's unmet secure residential housing need.

My admittedly jaded personal response to the idea that residential rents will significantly reduce over the next 10 years……

via GIPHY

I'm hoping that time will prove me wrong.