Newspoll April 2024 sees little wind in political parties' sails

 

Federal Primary Voting Intent:

ALP 33 (+1)

L/NP Coalition 38 (+1)

Greens 12 (-1)

One Nation 7 (0)

Other 10 (-1)

Federal Two Party Preferred Prediction:

Click on image to enlarge

ALP 51 (0)

L/NP Coalition 49 (0)

Better Prime Minister:

Click on image to enlarge

Albanese 48 (0)

Dutton 35 (+1)

Net Approval Rating

Anthony Albanese:  -6 (+1) 

Peter Dutton:  -15 (0) 

Newspoll was conducted by YouGov on Monday 15 to Friday 19 April 2024 and survey pool was 1,236

Well now the Chicken Little's of Australian journalism have moved on to other topics, here is another perspective on that latest Newspoll

 

Well the headlines this week ran a particular pessimistic line.....

Fresh Newspoll suggests Labor spiralling towards minority government at next election in worst result since Voice defeat [Sky News, 25.03.24]

Newspoll: Labor on slide as new year reset fades [The Australian, 25.03.24]

Newspoll: Worst result for Albanese gov since referendum backlash [The Courier Mail, 25.03.25]

Federal Labor's Popularity Slips In Latest Newspoll [10Play, 25.03.25]

Voters’ harsh verdict on Labor as cost of living bites [The Daily Telegraph, 25 March 2025]

So what exactly did the latest Newspoll survey results show?

NEWSPOLL, Sunday 24 March 2024

Newspoll was conducted by YouGov from 18-22 March using a survey pool of 1,223 participants.

Federal Primary Voting Intent:

ALP 32 (-1)

L/NP Coalition 37 (+1)

Greens 13 (+1)

One Nation 7 (+1)

Other 11

Federal Two Party Preferred Prediction:

ALP 51 (-1)

L/NP Coalition 49 (+1)

Click on image to enlarge

Better Prime Minister:

Albanese 48 (+1)

Dutton 34 (-1)

Approval Rating

Anthony Albanese: Approve 44 (+1) Disapprove 51 (0)

Peter Dutton: Approve 37 (0) Disapprove 52 (+1)

By way of context

On 24 March 2024 the nation was 61 weeks out from the last possible date for next federal general election, 17 May 2025.

This 24 March the two party preferred outcome of 51-49 in Labor's favour mirrored past Newspolls on:

28 April, 5 & 12 May 2019

12 Jan, 23 Feb & 15 March 2020

25 April, 16 May & 27 June 2021.

In Newspoll on those same dates the Coalition had the higher primary vote on:

28 April, 5 & 12 May 2019

12 January, 23 February & 15 March 2020

25 April, 16 May & 27 June 2021.

 

With the 16 May 2021 Coalition primary vote lead being a 5 point advantage making it an identical voting intention & prediction poll with this week's 24 March 2024 poll.

At approximtely 61 weeks out from May 2022 federal election, Newspoll was showing a two-party preferred prediction outcome of 52-48 in Labour's favour and, a primary voting intention outcome of somewhere between 40-38 & 42-37 in the Coalition's favour by 2-5 points.

It would seem this is a road well travelled and this far out from an election gives no real indication of the mood of a national electorate in May 2025.

Newspoll 2024: fourteen months out from the likely date of the next Australian federal election and the Coalition is limping along

 

The Australian, Newspoll, 25 February 2024:

Two Party Preferred Voting Intention January 2019 to February 2024

IMAGE: The Australian, 25.02.24

Click on image to enlarge

FEDERAL FIRST PREFERENCE VOTING INTENTIONS

Australian Labor — 33 (down 1)

Liberal-Nationals Coalition — 36 (no change)

The Greens — 12 (no change)

One Nation — 6 (no change)

Others — 13 (up 2)

FEDERAL TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTING INTENTIONS

Australian Labor — 52 (no change)

Liberal-Nationals Coalition — 48 (no change)

PREFERRED PRIME MINISTER

Anthony Albanese — 47 (up 1)

Peter Dutton — 35 (no change)

LEADER'S APPROVAL

Albanese:

Approve — 43 (up 1)

Disapprove — 51 (no change)

Dutton:

Approve — 37 (no change)

Disapprove — 51 (up 1) 

NOTE:

Results are based on the responses of 1,245 participants in the YouGov survey, which are weighted to be representative of the population by age, gender, education, AEC region, household income, weighting by past vote (Federal vote and Voice referendum). This Newspoll was published in The Australian on 25.02.24

At this point in time the expectation is that Australian will go to a federal general election sometime in May 2025, roughly 14 months away. 

Fourteen months out from the May 2022 federal election in the 21 February 2021 Newspoll, Labor's primary vote stood at 36 to the Liberal-Nationals Coalition's 42.

While Labor and the Coalition stood neck and neck on the two party preferred graph at 50 points.

At the actual general election on 21 May 2022 Labor won government with a House of Representatives count of 77 seats to the Coalition's 58 seats - with minor parties & independents holding 16 seats - giving the Albanese Government a one seat majority. The Newspoll of 13 May 2023 had posited a Labor win of 54 to the Coalition's 48.

It appears that Peter Dutton's drive to label Labor's proposed amended Stage 3 Tax Cuts as "a betrayal" and his accusation that the PM was "lying to the public" have fallen on predominately deaf ears across the national electorate

The Australian's Newspoll of 4 February 2024 was published Monday 5 February.

This was the first Newspoll of 2024 after a seven week gap since previous polling in December 2023.

The published results are based on a survey of 1,245 voters who were surveyed between Wednesday, 31 January and Saturday, 3 February 2024.

PRIMARY VOTE

Labor (sitting federal government) — 34 (up 1)

Coalition (L-NP opposition) — 36 (no change)

The Greens — 12 (down 1)

One Nation — 7 (no change)

TWO PARTY PREFERRED

Labor — 52 (no change)

Coalition — 48 (no change)

PREFFERED PRIME MINISTER

Anthony Albanese (current incumbent) — 46 (no change)

Peter Dutton (current opposition leader) — 35 (no change)

Uncommitted — 19 (no change)

APPROVAL RATING

Albanese:

Approve 42 (no change)

Disapprove 51 (up 1)

Dutton:

Approve 37 (down 2)

Disapprove 50 (up 2)

PROPOSAL TO AMEND STAGE 3 TAX CUTS

IMAGE: via @GrogsGamut Click on image to enlarge

According to The Australian's Page One on 5 February, "Mr Albanese has said the tax cuts were aimed at Middle Australia. This was supported by the poll results, which showed that 43 per cent of 35- to 49-year-olds said they would be better off and 44 per cent of 50- to 64-year-olds agreeing they would benefit....

The Newspoll showed female voters were significantly more likely to support the tax cuts than men: 65-59 per cent.

Those aged between 50 and 64 were also the most supportive of the change"

The Australian Parliament resumed on Tuesday 5 January, with the government planning to introduce legislation to replace the stage three tax cuts with a new tax rate table

Hopefully the government's amendments will pass unopposed and unamended by the Liberal-Nationals Coalition.

If for no other reason than Morrison's Treasury Laws Amendment in 2019 will no longer survive to fulfil its unofficial alternative title and descriptions: “Treasury Laws Amendment (Tax Relief So Working Australians Keep More Of Their Money But Not For A Really Long Time) Bill 2019” aka "a tax package that is both fiscally irresponsible and unfair", "unfair and unjust", "a con job" making "inequality worse".

Sources:

Australian Parliament, Hansard, June 2018 to July 2019

9 News, 25.01.24

The Daily Telegraph, 26.01.24

AAP General Newswire, 04.02.24

The Australian, 05.02.24

Ghost Who Votes (@GhostWhoVotes), 05.02.24

Grog's Gamut (@GrogsGamut), 05.02.24

Battle of the Political Opinion Polls November 2023

 

Two very different sources, two very different results, published two days apart - who does one believe?

Roy Morgan Research, Market Research Update, email, 28 November 2023:

Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention shows support for the ALP recovering – up 3% points: ALP 52.5% cf. L-NP 47.5%

The ALP has regained the lead on 52.5% (up 3% on a week ago) ahead of the Coalition on 47.5% (down 3%) on a two-party preferred basis according to the latest Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention conducted last week.

The result halts a run of three straight weeks of declines for the ALP.

On primary vote the Coalition is now on 35%, down 2.5% from a week ago, ahead of the ALP on 32%, up 2.5%. The Greens are unchanged on 13.5% and One Nation is on 5%, down 1.5%.

There has been a gain in support for Independents on 9%, up 2%, but a drop in support for Other Parties on 5.5%, down 0.5%.

The latest Roy Morgan Poll is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,379 Australian electors from November 20-26, 2023.

The Australian, Latest Newspoll, 26 November 2023:

Newspoll Two Party Preferred results
10.02.19 to 25.11.23
Click on image to enlarge

Federal Primary Voting Intention:

ALP 31 (-4)

Coalition 38 (+1)

Greens 13 (+1)

One Nation 6 (no change)

Other 12 (+2)

Federal Two Party Preferred:

ALP 50 (-2)

Coalition 50 (+2)

Preferred Prime Minister:

Albanese 46 (no change)

Dutton 35 (-1)

Leaders Approval Rating:

Dutton: Approve 37 (no change) Disapprove 50 (no change)

Albanese: Approve 40 (-2) Disapprove 53 (+1)

Newspoll published Monday 25 September 2023: a curate's egg, good in parts

 

Newspoll published 25 September 2023:

24 September 2023

VOTING INTENTION PRIMARY VOTE

Labor – 36 points (+1)

Coalition – 36 points (-1)

Greens – 11 points (-2)

One Nation – 6 points (-1)

Others – 11 points (+3)

VOTING INTENTION TWO-PARTY PREFERRED (TPP)

Labor – 54 points (+1)

Coalition – 46 points (-1)

Click on graph to enlarge

BETTER PM

Anthony Albanese – 50 points (no change)

Peter Dutton – 30 points (-1)

APPROVAL/DISAPPROVAL RATING

Anthony Albanese – Approve 47 points (+1)

                                   Disapprove 44 points (-3)

Peter Dutton – Approve 32 points (-6)

      Disapprove 52 points (+3)

      Net Approval -20 points

Aboriginal & Torres Strait Islander Voice to Parliament Referendum Voting Intention

YES – 36 points (-2 )

NO – 56 points (+3 )

UNDECIDED – 8 points (-1)

And this week brought another Newspoll.....

 

On Saturday 15 July 2023 there was a federal by-election in the Queensland electorate of Fadden – a safe seat for the Coalition having been held at 16 out of the 17 federal elections since the electorate was created in 1977.

The by-election was caused by incumbent Stuart Robert, a former minister in the Morrison Government resigning in anticipation of being named in the Report of the Royal Commission into the Robodebt Scheme.

As predicted the LNP candidate, Gold Coast City councillor Cameron Caldwell, won on the day with 49.06% of the first preference vote and 63.26% of the two-candidate preferred vote as at AEC recorded ballot count on 17 July.

Coincidentally, 14-15 July 2023 were the dates on which Newspoll conducted one of its national surveys of voter intentions.

This particular survey clearly indicated that if a general election had been held last Saturday, then MP for Dickson & Leader of the Liberal Party Peter Dutton & his Coalition cronies would remain on the Opposition benches.

IMAGES: The Australian, 17 July 2023

Click on graphs to enlarge

Here are the percentages revealed in this month’s survey.

Primary Vote

Labor – 36 (+2)

Coalition – 34 (-1.7)

Greens – 12 (+1)

One Nation – 7 (+1)

Others – 11 (+1)

Two-Party Preferred

Labor – 55 (+1)

Coalition – 45 (-1)

Performance Approval Rating

ALBANESE:

Satisfied – 52 (unchanged)

Dissatisfied – 41 (-1)

DUTTON:

Satisfied – 36 (-2)

Dissatisfied – 49 (unchanged)

BY 15 JULY 2023 LABOR'S SURVEY POSITION IN COMPARISON WITH ITS POSITION ON DAY OF 2022 FEDERAL ELECTION WAS:

Primary Vote: 3.4% higher

Two Party Preferred: 1.9% higher

Better Prime Minister:

Albanese 54% - no change

BY 15 JULY 2023 COALITION'S SURVEY POSITION IN COMPARISON WITH ITS POSITION ON DAY OF 2022 FEDERAL ELECTION WAS:

Primary Vote: 1.7% lower

Two-Party Preferred: 2.9% lower

Better Prime Minister:

Dutton 29% - 1% higher.

In June 2023 Liberal-Nationals Coalition & Liberal Opposition Leader Peter Dutton still failing to breakthrough with the national electorate?

 

At the Saturday, 18 May 2019 Australian federal general election 15.8 million electors turned out to vote, with the vote result giving 77 seats in the House of Representatives to the Liberal-Nationals Coalition, 68 seats to the Labor Party and 6 seats to minor parties/independents.

Three years later the federal general election saw 15.4 million electors vote, with the vote result sending the Labor Party into government in the House of Representatives with 77 seats, the Liberal-Nationals Coalition forming the Opposition with 58 seats and minor parties/independents holding 16 seats.

Twelve months into the Albanese Government’s three-year term and there is a 10 point projected gap in TPP votes in its favour in the 4 June 2023 Newspoll. While there is a 27 point gap in Albanese’s favour when it comes to which leader is seen as better prime minister material.

The Coalition in June 2023 under Dutton is 8 points lower than the Coalition under Morrison in August 2019 (the first poll after the 2019 federal election) and, at 45 points, 2 points lower under Dutton than where the Coalition was placed on election day 2022. On the Newspoll continuum over the last twelve months Peter Dutton as party leader has never guided the Opposition to a poll score higher than 46 points.

Newspoll, 4 June 2023:

FEDERAL PRIMARY VOTE (FP)

Labor ALP — 38 (no change)

Coalition Lib/NP — 34 (no change)

Greens — 12 (+1)

One Nation — 6 (-1)

FEDERAL TWO-PARTY PREFERENTIAL VOTE (TPP)

Labor ALP — 55 (no change)

Coalition Lib/NP — 45 (no change)

BETTER PRIME MINISTER

Anthony Albanese — 55 (-1)

Peter Dutton — 28 (-1)

SUPPORT FOR THE INDIGENOUS & TORRES STRAIT ISLANDER VOICE TO PARLIAMENT REFERENDUM

YES — 46%

NO — 43%

UNDECIDED — 11%

Sources:

The Australian newspaper, Newspoll, 4 June 2023

Twitter @GhostWhoVotes, 4 June 2023

Australian Electoral Commission (AEC), 2019, 2022.