Newspoll 2024: fourteen months out from the likely date of the next Australian federal election and the Coalition is limping along

 

The Australian, Newspoll, 25 February 2024:

Two Party Preferred Voting Intention January 2019 to February 2024

IMAGE: The Australian, 25.02.24

Click on image to enlarge

FEDERAL FIRST PREFERENCE VOTING INTENTIONS

Australian Labor — 33 (down 1)

Liberal-Nationals Coalition — 36 (no change)

The Greens — 12 (no change)

One Nation — 6 (no change)

Others — 13 (up 2)

FEDERAL TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTING INTENTIONS

Australian Labor — 52 (no change)

Liberal-Nationals Coalition — 48 (no change)

PREFERRED PRIME MINISTER

Anthony Albanese — 47 (up 1)

Peter Dutton — 35 (no change)

LEADER'S APPROVAL

Albanese:

Approve — 43 (up 1)

Disapprove — 51 (no change)

Dutton:

Approve — 37 (no change)

Disapprove — 51 (up 1) 

NOTE:

Results are based on the responses of 1,245 participants in the YouGov survey, which are weighted to be representative of the population by age, gender, education, AEC region, household income, weighting by past vote (Federal vote and Voice referendum). This Newspoll was published in The Australian on 25.02.24

At this point in time the expectation is that Australian will go to a federal general election sometime in May 2025, roughly 14 months away. 

Fourteen months out from the May 2022 federal election in the 21 February 2021 Newspoll, Labor's primary vote stood at 36 to the Liberal-Nationals Coalition's 42.

While Labor and the Coalition stood neck and neck on the two party preferred graph at 50 points.

At the actual general election on 21 May 2022 Labor won government with a House of Representatives count of 77 seats to the Coalition's 58 seats - with minor parties & independents holding 16 seats - giving the Albanese Government a one seat majority. The Newspoll of 13 May 2023 had posited a Labor win of 54 to the Coalition's 48.