Well the headlines this week ran a particular pessimistic line.....
Fresh Newspoll suggests Labor spiralling towards minority government at next election in worst result since Voice defeat [Sky News, 25.03.24]
Newspoll: Labor on slide as new year reset fades [The Australian, 25.03.24]
Newspoll: Worst result for Albanese gov since referendum backlash [The Courier Mail, 25.03.25]
Federal Labor's Popularity Slips In Latest Newspoll [10Play, 25.03.25]
Voters’ harsh verdict on Labor as cost of living bites [The Daily Telegraph, 25 March 2025]
So what exactly did the latest Newspoll survey results show?
NEWSPOLL, Sunday 24 March 2024
Newspoll was conducted by YouGov from 18-22 March using a survey pool of 1,223 participants.
Federal Primary Voting Intent:
ALP 32 (-1)
L/NP Coalition 37 (+1)
Greens 13 (+1)
One Nation 7 (+1)
Other 11
Federal Two Party Preferred Prediction:
ALP 51 (-1)
L/NP Coalition 49 (+1)
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Click on image to enlarge |
Better Prime Minister:
Albanese 48 (+1)
Dutton 34 (-1)
Approval Rating
Anthony Albanese: Approve 44 (+1) Disapprove 51 (0)
Peter Dutton: Approve 37 (0) Disapprove 52 (+1)
By way of context
On 24 March 2024 the nation was 61 weeks out from the last possible date for next federal general election, 17 May 2025.
This 24 March the two party preferred outcome of 51-49 in Labor's favour mirrored past Newspolls on:
28 April, 5 & 12 May 2019
12 Jan, 23 Feb & 15 March 2020
25 April, 16 May & 27 June 2021.
In Newspoll on those same dates the Coalition had the higher primary vote on:
28 April, 5 & 12 May 2019
12 January, 23 February & 15 March 2020
25 April, 16 May & 27 June 2021.
With the 16 May 2021 Coalition primary vote lead being a 5 point advantage making it an identical voting intention & prediction poll with this week's 24 March 2024 poll.
At approximtely 61 weeks out from May 2022 federal election, Newspoll was showing a two-party preferred prediction outcome of 52-48 in Labour's favour and, a primary voting intention outcome of somewhere between 40-38 & 42-37 in the Coalition's favour by 2-5 points.
It would seem this is a road well travelled and this far out from an election gives no real indication of the mood of a national electorate in May 2025.
