Thursday, 4 September 2025

MARCH FOR AUSTRALIA 31 August 2025: when people believe what neo-Nazis & white supremacists loudly chant and fail to fact check before they join a march


"On 18 August, 2GB radio host Ben Fordham said that 1,544 migrants, or the equivalent of five fully-loaded Boeing 787 Dreamliners, were arriving in Australia "day after day, week after week".

Fordham went on to suggest this figure is why the 'March for Australia' protests were organised....

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) said these figures are not an accurate reflection of actual migration figures." [SBS News FactCheckers, 1 Sept 2025]

 


Because the barely concealed 'othering' of large parts of the Australian population should never be tolerated and because the combination of ignorance, racism and hate-filled violence which also occurred during the March for Australia event was a disgrace, here is a brief outline of Australia's genuine migration statistics.

 

Note: click on tables & graphs to enlarge for easier reading

 

Australian Bureau of Statistics, National, state and territory population, as of December 2024:


Estimated Resident Population (ERP).

  • Australia’s population was 27,400,013 people at 31 December 2024.

  • The quarterly growth was 91,133 people (0.3%).

  • The annual growth was 445,900 people (1.7%).

  • Annual natural increase was 105,200 and net overseas migration was 340,800.



Components of annual population change(a) Dec 04 to Dec 24



Components of annual population change by states and territories in 2024


AIFS, Births in Australia, December 2024:


The total fertility rate for Australia in 2023 was 1.50, which is the lowest ever recorded. The previous lowest rate was 1.59 recorded during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020....

Since 1976, the total national fertility rate has been below the replacement level, which is about 2.1 births per woman....

Replacement level is the level at which a population is replaced from one generation to the next without immigration....

Over the last decade it [the fertility rate] has been below replacement level for all states and territories.

[SEE: https://aifs.gov.au/research/facts-and-figures/births-australia-2024]


These figures indicate that Australia is no longer able to sustain a stable population demographic based on live births alone. The beginning of the marked fall in population replacement levels can be pinpointed to 1961 with the introduction of the contraceptive pill.


Total fertility rate in Australia, 1921-2023

[SEE: https://aifs.gov.au/research/facts-and-figures/births-australia-2024]


The figures and graphs also tell us that permanent migration from overseas into the Commonwealth of Australia and its territories has not increased dramatically.


In the year ending 31 December 2024, net overseas migration:

  • was 340,800 people

  • decreased by 189,900 (35.8%) people since the previous year.

[SEE:

https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/national-state-and-territory-population/latest-release


Basically that is a rough average of est. 934 individuals per day arriving in Australia as permanent residents in 2024. Given Australia loses roughly est. 510 individuals per day due to death, then permanent migration figures are hardly the avalanche pushing Australia's population to the unsustainable level that neo-Nazis, white supremacists, far-right lobby groups and the Murdoch media say is occurring in this country. [SEE: https://www.actuaries.asn.au/research-analysis/mortality-in-first-eight-months-of-2024-2-higher-than-predicted]


Looking at state and territory population change below for the year 2024—which is comprised of natural increase, net overseas migration (overseas arrivals minus overseas departures), and net interstate migration (interstate arrivals minus interstate departures) - it clearly shows that population change is not evenly distributed between the states and territories. That metropolitan areas in some states, as well as having markedly mobile resident populations may also have higher levels of both post WWII and post-pandemic migrants.


Net overseas migration by state and territory—annual




Natural increase by state and territory – annual




Perhaps uneven population distribution is one factor which appears to make a sub-section of Australian society more susceptible to the influence of those bad actors on the political stage who are erroneously insisting that out-of-control "mass migration" is "overwhelming the country". The susceptible may come to falsely believe that all migrant numbers are exactly replicated in every corner of Australia.


Saturday, 30 August 2025

Confused about Australia's response to US President Trump's latest move creating international trade chaos - this time with low cost mailed goods? Unfortunately, it is up to the Trump Administration to sort out implementation of this policy & supply a coherent explanation to the international community, so Australia is probably in for weeks or even months of frustrating uncertainty .


On Friday 29 August 2025 US President Donald Trump's tariffs & fees applying to de minimis (low cost) goods valued up to US $800 entering American territory by way of a postal service came into effect. From that day all goods entering the country by mail became subject to a charge reflecting the July-August 2025 US trade tariffs imposed on the specific country of origin/sale of these low cost goods.


Before 29 August no tariff applied to low cost goods under an international de minimis rule within trade agreements between countries. The cut-off amount for tariff exemption varies between trade agreements.


Between 1 October 2024 and 30 June 2025 a total of 945.3 million such mailed items from all points of the globe arrived in the U.S. having been mailed by small businesses advertising directly on the Internet or operating on platforms such as Etsy or eBay, as well as sent as gifts mailed by individuals living abroad to friends or family living in America.


During those nine months the de minimis value of such goods was calculated to total US $49.8 billion, which roughly averages out at an estimated value of US$52.68 per padded envelope/package.


Like most changes to international trade with the U.S. it came via a presidential order containing more rhetorical flourish than established fact or hard detail. This one titled "SUSPENDING DUTY-FREE DE MINIMIS TREATMENT FOR ALL COUNTRIES" dated 30 June 2025.


Given President Trump appears to believe that these new charges/fees on low cost goods imported by mail into America should be borne by the seller not the importer and because of the uncertainty concerning the point along international mail routes at which new charges/fees become payable and by whom, Australia along with at least 32 other countries has suspended all package mail into the U.S.with Australia only continuing the delivery of letters, documents and gifts worth less than $150.


BACKGROUND


CNBC, 28 August 2025, excerpts:


The de minimis exemption lets U.S. consumers import $800 worth of goods free of tariffs, duties and fees. The rule makes it cheaper for consumers who buy products directly from international sellers.


The volume of these low-value shipments has swelled amid the rise of e-commerce, experts said.


In 2024, the U.S. received about 1.4 billion de minimis shipments, more than double the 637 million in 2020, according to U.S. Customs and Border Protection data.


The average de minimis shipment was about $48 in 2024, according to CBP data....


All shipments — including beauty products from Korea, leather shoes from Italy, kitchen knives from Japan — will be subject to additional fees and taxes, such as tariffs that the Trump administration has levied on most U.S. trading partners....


For the consumer, it can be quite a big price increase,” said Mary Lovely, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, whose research specializes in trade with China and global supply chains.


The actual price increase for consumers will depend on many factors such as country-specific tariff rates, duties the U.S. places on goods and manufacturing materials, and how businesses adjust pricing, economists said.


Here’s how the end of de minimis would impact some specific consumer goods, according to a FlavorCloudanalysis:


  • $30 slippers (lightweight, premium cotton) from China would cost about $45, a 51% increase;

  • $37 nutritional supplements (plant-based, performance-formulated) from Canada would cost about $60, up 60%;

  • A $240 chef’s knife (with wooden handle and white steel) from Japan would cost about $298, up 24%.


Pablo Fajgelbaum, an economics professor at University of California, Los Angeles, and Amit Khandelwal, an economics professor at Yale University, write that de minimis is a “pro-poor trade policy.”...



ABCNews, 29 August 2025, excerpt:



Why Australia Post halted most US shipping


Australia Post's suspension of most shipments to the US follows the Trump administration axing the "deminimis" exemption.


Until now, parcels of goods worth less than $US800 ($1,230) were not taxed when they arrived in the US — an exemption relied upon by many Australian retailers to send items to the US duty-free.


This exemption was axed for China already in 2025, throwing retailers including Shein and Temu off guard.


Australia Post is taking the extraordinary step of immediately suspending many forms of shipping to the United States.


Originally, this exemption was not supposed to end for the rest of the world until 2027. Yet last month, the deadline was brought forward to August 29, 2025.


"Until such time as the actual decision was going to be enforced, we ran the risk of actually going early and then the US government changing its mind again, which it has done before," Mr Graham told ABC News.


"We couldn't give [our customers] concrete advice."

"It's been very difficult for our team members, but most importantly, difficult for our customers.


"Because there has been a degree of uncertainty around the whole tariff landscape for the US Is it on? Is it not on?


"Originally, we were told that the de minimis would not be removed until 2027 and then the system was brought rapidly forward, but we have to deal with that.


"We have to roll with those punches."




TheWashington Post, 23 August 2025, excepts:



Postal operators in several countries have announced they will suspend certain deliveries to the United States, ahead of an end to a long-standing tariff exemption for packages worth $800 or less.


President Donald Trump has framed the decision as part of a fight against illegal drugs. But mail companies abroad are halting some of their services to the U.S., saying that many aspects of the new rules remain unclear.


Here's what to know.


The facts

Previously, most imported goods with a value of $800 or less were exempt from tariffs. That rule, known as the de minimis exemption, is set to end on Friday — though letters or personal gifts worth less than $100 won't be affected, postal operators said.


A number of national mail companies from countries such as France, Germany, the U.K and India have responded by temporarily suspending some mail services to the U.S.


For consumers, this could mean delays in receiving packages — which may now also incur tariffs of $80 or more.....


What will it mean for consumers?

The extra charges on a package will depend on the methodology used to calculate it, according to the executive order. The duty rate will either match the level of tariff the U.S. has imposed on the country of origin, or a specific duty based on the following:


For countries with a tariff rate of 15 percent or less, such as Britain, each package will incur an additional charge of $80.


Parcels originating from countries with U.S. tariffs of between 16 and 25 percent will incur an additional $160.


Countries with a tariff rate of more than 25 percent will face an extra $200.


Letters, documents and gifts under $100 are exempt — though DHL said in a statement that any parcel declared as a gift "will be subject to even stricter controls than before to prevent the misuse of private gift shipments for sending commercial goods."


UPDATE


See: V.O.S. Selections Inc et al v Donald J Trump et al 


1. https://www.cafc.uscourts.gov/opinions-orders/25-1812.OPINION.8-29-2025_2566151.pdf and

2. https://www.cafc.uscourts.gov/opinions-orders/25-1812.ORDER.8-29-2025_2566157.pdf



 

Tuesday, 19 August 2025

The cost of climate change resulting in bushfires, destructive storms, floods, coastal erosion & inundation is becoming self evident, but where is government consideration of what that really means to regions like the Northern Rivers in NE NSW?


Echo, editorial, 15 August 2025:


The cost of climate change


Over the weekend we saw the cancellation of the Byron Writers Festival owing to another significant rain event on the NSW east coast.


Wildfires are burning again in Greece as temperatures ramp up across Europe, California has seen evacuations as fires burn again, and it wasn’t that long ago that our news feeds were filled with the Texas flash flood that washed children and adults away.


According to The Guardian, some parts of NSW have seen more than ‘their average monthly rainfall dramatically exceeded in the first eight days of August’.


It was predicted that climate change in the Northern Rivers of NSW would see an increase in rainfall, and that it would also see an increase in rain bursts, which is when a large amount of rain falls in a short time, which can lead to flash flooding.


A warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, and more energy to fuel storms,’ explained the Climate Council in their 2025 report At Our Front Door: Escalating Climate Risks For Aussie Homes.


We are experiencing more of our rain in the form of short, intense downpours leading to a greater risk of floods.’


Since the 2022 floods we have heard how communities need to be ‘resilient’ in the face of climate change. However, it is not just the soft skills of resilience we need, but hard investments from government to create more resilient infrastructure along with action on climate-change reduction targets.


We are still looking at roads and infrastructure yet to be repaired since the 2022 floods. When grants finally do become available, they are more likely to be ‘like for like’ rather than the government-touted ‘build back better’.


Action is needed from all levels of government to meet the needs of their communities locally, nationally, and globally. The World Economic Forum (WEF) has pointed out the obvious economic pain: ‘Climate change has caused over $3.6 trillion in damage since 2000.’


In addition the Australian Investor Group on climate change (https://igcc.org.au) stated that, ‘New economic modelling shows climate damage will deliver a 14 per cent annual hit to Australia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) if current global climate policies continue, wiping out $6.8 trillion from our economy between now and 2050 and cutting thousands of dollars a year out of the pockets of Australians.’


While the cost of action may seem high the cost of inaction is extreme. The Climate Policy Initiative (CPI) estimates that climate finance needed to ensure global temperatures do not rise above 1.5°C could increase up to USD 12.2 trillion per year between now and 2050.


When you consider the future cost of inaction, governments should be clearly spelling out the how, the why, and the value of taking action on climate change right now.


Aslan Shand, editor


For those living along the edge of the coastal fringe of New South Wales climate change impacts are very real and, many coastal local governments are no longer in denial of the potential scope of the change facing their communities - even if current available coastal inundation projections may be overly optimistic when it comes to timeframes.


These are the nearest pressure points to where I live - and coastal inundation projections from 2025 to 2090 are not measured in kilometres but in metres from my home in Yamba at the mouth of the Clarence River and estuary.

 

PRESSURE POINT A





PRESSURE POINT B




Note: Shades of rusty red/pink denote areas of coastal inundation. Clarence Valley Council interactive mapping tool can be found at:

Sunday, 17 August 2025

When comparing the standing of national leaders in their own countries, Australia's Albanese beats America's Trump hands down when it comes to job performance & public approval

 

NEWSPOLL, published 17 August 2025



Voting Intention at an Australian Federal Election*

*Newspoll survey of 1,283 respondents undertaken by YouGov Australia from 11-13 August 2025. Margin of Error ± 3.


First Preference (Primary Vote):

Labor (ALP) 36 (0)

Coalition (L/NP) 30 (+1)

Australian Greens (GRN) 12 (0)

One Nation (ON) 9 (+1)

Others 13 (-2)


Two Party Preferred Vote:

Labor (ALP) 56 (-1)

Coalition (L/NP) 44 (+1)


Preferred Prime Minister:

Anthony Albanese 51 (-1)

Sussan Ley 31 (-1)


Leaders Approval Rating:


ALBANESE: Approve 49 (+2) Disapprove 46 (-1) Uncommitted 6

LEY: Approve 35 (0) Disapprove 44 (+2)

Uncommitted 23


Comparing US President Donald Trump .......


PEW RESEARCH, 14 August 2025:


President Donald Trump’s current job approval rating stands at 38%, with 60% of U.S. adults expressing disapproval of his performance. This is a modest decline from two months ago, when 41% approved.


And perceptions of some of Trump’s personal traits are more negative than they were following his election victory (or in 2024 preelection polling). For instance, 37% of Americans today say “cares about the needs of ordinary people” describes Trump well. That share is 8 points lower than it was shortly after the November election, and 5 points lower than it was in late-summer preelection polling....

Much of the change in Trump’s approval rating over the last few months has come among his own 2024 voters and people who did not vote in 2024.....


NOTE: Australia's next federal general election occurs in 2028 as does the next US presidential election.


Saturday, 2 August 2025

Donald Trump's 'big, beautiful global trade tariffs' list for 99 countries as of 1 August 2025 - in order of descending severity from 50% down to 10%

 

Since the first days of the 47th US Presidency Donald J. Trump has been publicly ruminating, boasting, threatening, proclaiming and then reversing his previously announced tariff regimes via the White House News & elsewhere.


Therefore the following list must be treated with caution, as like all other matters relating to US policy in 2025 it is subject to the vagaries of Trump's temper as well as his perverse reasoning.


Some or all of the percentages set out below may suddenly change via Donald Trump's own social media posts or formal presidential executive orders. Changes will be updated when confirmed.



Trump's 1 August 2025 global baseline trade tariffs


Brazil 50%

India 50% - on 6 August 2025 Trump signed an executive order imposing an additional 25% to India's announced 25% trade tariff. On the alleged grounds that India is making a profit from purchasing Russian oil by re-selling stock held excess to current requirements.

Syria 41%

Laos 40%

Myanmar (Burma) 40%

Switzerland 39%

Iraq 35%

Serbia 35%

Canada 35%

China 30% - in place until mid-August when a 145% tariff is again mooted/threatened.

Algeria 30%

Bosnia and Herzegovina 30%

Libya 30%

South Africa 30%

Mexico 25% - in place for second 90 day period when expected to rise to between est. 30-35%.

Brunei 25%

Kazakhstan 25%

Moldova 25%

Tunisia 25%

Bangladesh 20%

Sri Lanka 20%

Taiwan 20%

Vietnam 20%

Cambodia 19%

Indonesia 19%

Malaysia 19%

Pakistan 19%

Philippines 19%

Thailand 19%

Nicaragua 18%

Afghanistan 15%

Angola 15%

Bolivia 15%

Botswana 15%

Cameroon 15%

Chad 15%

Costa Rica 15%

Ivory Coast 15%

Democratic Republic of the Congo 15%

Ecuador 15%

Equatorial Guinea 15%

Fiji 15%

Ghana 15%

Guyana 15%

Iceland 15%

Israel 15%

Japan 15%

Jordan 15%

Lesotho 15%

Liechtenstein 15%

Madagascar 15%

Malawi 15%

Mauritius 15%

Mozambique 15%

Namibia 15%

Nauru 15%

New Zealand 15%

Nigeria 15%

North Macedonia 15%

Norway 15%

Papua New Guinea 15%

South Korea 15%

Trinidad and Tobago 15%

Türkiye 15%

Uganda 15%

Vanuatu 15%

Venezuela 15%

Zambia 15%

Zimbabwe 15%

European Union 15%

Falkland Islands 10%

United Kingdom 10%

Australia 10% - it is noted that we like other countries are also subject to additional higher tariffs on certain goods.

The remaining 96 countries not specifically mentioned have a US baseline trade tariff rate of 10%.


Sources: The Guardian/ABC News//The White House.


Notes:


All listed rates exclude product-specific tariffs, such as steel, aluminium & copper carrying 50% tariffs and foreign cars & auto parts subject to 25% tariffs when imported into USA.


Brazil's 50% tariff includes an additional 40% rate linked to prosecution for alleged corruption & fomenting insurrection of former president Jair Bolsonaro. However, tariffs on aircraft, energy & orange juice will be lower.


Trump's own statements suggest that baseline tariffs now applied to Canada are in part a result of its government having recognised Palestinian statehood & effective as of 1 August, while most other nations tariffs commence from 6-7 August 2025.


China's total tariff rate has been in place since 14 May 2025, with some exceptions. The mooted higher rate of 145% & its timing appears to subject to Trump's whim.


Mexico's new baseline tariff excludes higher tariffs on certain goods.


The European Union (EU) baseline tariffs range appears to be on a sliding scale depending on goods being imported into USA. The EU is composed of 27 nations spread across Europe from Ireland through to Scandinavian, Baltic, South-eastern Europe and Mediterranean regions. 


Wednesday, 30 July 2025

Climate Change State of Play 2025: in a rapidly warming world prediction of risk levels and consequences are raising red flags for the planet and humanity

 

Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, News:


IFoA research included in key climate-risk reports for global finance ministers


17 June 2025


The Institute and Faculty of Actuaries has provided a summary of recent climate-related risk research which has been included in reports sent to global finance ministers. These reports were provided ahead of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Group (WBG) 2025 Spring Meetings in late April.


IFoA Fellows and sustainability risk actuaries Sandy Trust and Georgi Bedenham sit on the Technical Advisory Group set up to advise the Coalition of Finance Ministers for Climate Action. This coalition is supported by the IMF and WBG and brings together fiscal and economic policymakers from 97 countries.


The series of IFoA research reports started in 2022 with ‘Climate Emergency – tipping the odds in our favour: A climate change policy briefing for COP27’. In 2023, we released ‘Emperor’s New Climate Scenarios – a warning for financial services’. This was followed in 2024 with ‘ClimateScorpion – the sting is in the tail’. Although coming too late for the IMF/WBG spring meeting briefings to finance ministers, the latest in the series was released in January 2025 entitled ‘Planetary Solvency – finding our balance with nature’.


Sandy Trust, IFoA Council member and IFoA Climate Risk series lead author, said:

“There is an urgent need for finance ministries to include realistic and current climate assessments risk into their economic analysis and modelling approaches. Global warming has accelerated, and the 12-month average temperature is now above the 1.5°C goal. This is driving increasingly severe impacts – fires, floods, heat, and droughts – which are coming sooner than expected, are worse than expected and outside model projections. Climate change is fast becoming a national security issue with food, water and heat stresses impacting populations.


Finance ministries have to support important government decisions on prioritisation of climate change action. We urge ministers to adopt a set of principles to develop realistic economic assessments of climate impacts and opportunities. Our contribution to the reports provided ahead of the IMF and World Bank meetings are designed to draw attention to the limitations of first generation climate risk models which understate risks and provide some very specific recommendations to better assess the economic impact of climate change.”


Kartina Tahir Thomson, IFoA President, said: 

“Climate change is a risk management issue on a global scale. If we want to avoid severe disruption to the economy and our global society, we need to take action to reduce emissions, limit warming, mitigate the extent of future climate risks and adapt to those we cannot avoid.


It is great to see this IFoA research being delivered direct to policymakers in over 90 countries. Given their skills and expertise in assessing long-term risk, actuaries are well placed to help draw attention to these climate risk challenges and to offer solutions.”


The report was included in the Coalition of Finance Ministers’ for Climate Action’s Helsinki Principle 4 initiative ‘Economic Analysis for Green and Resilient Transitions’. The IFoA’s contribution was part of its newly published Compendium of Practice.


**********


Excerpt from The urgent need for Ministries of Finance to factor systemic climate risk into their economic analysis and modeling approaches and principles for doing so: a view from the insurance and pensions industry, June 2025:


Key findings—realistic economic analysis to support Ministry of Finance decisions


1. Ministries of Finance have to support important government decisions on the prioritization of climate change, e.g., how much effort to expend on countering it, relative to the effort that must be spent on other issues. They use integrated assessment models (IAMs) to assess economic implications of climate change risks and opportunities, including policy decisions on incentives to accelerate the transition and how to build resilience into societies to withstand anticipated climate impacts.


2. However, IAMs have significant limitations, meaning they can understate both the climate risks and the economic opportunities arising from the energy transition. Basing policy decisions on these models may lead to inadequate adaptation, loss of resilience, and missed economic opportunities.


3. To address these limitations, MoFs should adopt a set of principles to develop realistic economic assessments of climate impacts and opportunities, including adopting a precautionary-principle approach, developing risk management capacity, and providing decision-makers with better information. 


4. MoFs should lead the development of National Transition Plans (NTPs)—strategic pan economy plans that direct private sector action around financing, incentivizing, coordinating, and enabling the transition. NTPs should include requirements for realistic risk assessment to support policy decisions to accelerate mitigation and build resilient infrastructure.


5. The backdrop to this analysis is that global warming has accelerated, and the 12-month average temperature is now above the 1.5°C goal. Record high temperatures are occurring continuously across the globe, with multiple locations now experiencing 40°C–50°C peaks. Polar regions are experiencing temperatures 30°C–40°C higher than normal. This trend will likely continue as emissions are ongoing and other factors, such as forest fires, ice loss, and loss of aerosol cooling, are driving warming.


6. This trend is having increasingly severe impacts—fires, floods, heat, and droughts. Climate change is becoming a national security issue, with food, water, and heat stresses impacting populations. If it goes unchecked, then mass mortality, involuntary mass migration events and/or severe GDP contraction are likely.


7. But warming above 1.5°C is extremely risky, with a high chance of triggering multiple climate tipping points, such as the collapse of ice sheets, permafrost melt, Amazon dieback, and halting major ocean current circulation. Impacts could be catastrophic, including significant loss of capacity to grow major staple crops, multi-meter sea-level rise, and further acceleration of climate change through the release of greenhouse gases.


In 2022 in its first term the Albanese Labor Government joined the Coalition of Finance Ministers for Climate Action (created in 2018-19), as of May 2025 this coalition comprises of 98 members supported by 21 Institutional Partners and 9 Knowledge Partners.


NOTE: The United States of America, Russia, Israel & North Korea are notable absences from the membership list to date.


Additionally in 2022 the Australian Treasury joined the International Platform on Sustainable Finance (launched in 2019).