Clarence Valley State of Play: as the first day of Summer draws closer memories of past summers surface

 

Right now the Clarence River flow at Newbold Crossing is registering in the >80% stream flow percentile, the Shannon Creek side dam is at 99% capacity and soil moisture is for the most part within acceptable limits across the Clarence Valley which is classified 100% non-drought.

However, the Australian Summer officially begins on 1 December 2024 and air temperatures and water evaporation rates are bound to rise.

So how is the New South Wales Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) Map likely to look come December?

Where we are going?

NSW Dept. of Primary Industries and Regional Development, Climate Branch, Drought Forecasting, 17 November 2022:

NOTE: The DPIRD drought forecast for NSW presents the ‘Most Likely’ Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) category for the forecast period. The Most Likely CDI category is determined by identifying the 'mode' of the CDI. The mode is the category that appears most frequently across all possible forecast outcomes in the ensemble run. It is the most common prediction for drought conditions in the forecast period based on the model's simulations.

Where have we been along the Clarence Valley drought history continuum, 20 November 2019 to 9 October 2024?

Click on graphs to enlarge

Fine Flower & environs

Heifer Station & environs

Grafton & environs

Maclean & environs

Yamba

*All maps & graphs were created on 17.11.24 using interactive tools created by NSW Dept. of Primary Industries and Regional Development, Climate Branch

Combined Drought Indicators

The NSW Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) includes four indicators for rainfall, soil moisture, plant growth and drought direction which, used together, can indicate the five phases of drought.

Rainfall Index (RI)

The RI is the percentile rank of rainfall aggregated over 12 months. The ranking is made using a 30 year (1980-2010) baseline which captures recent big shifts in climate variability, and factors in climate change. This provides an index between 0 and 100 where values approaching 0 are close to driest, and those approaching 100 close to the wettest, for any given region. Percentile-based indices like the RI have a uniform distribution regardless of their climatic setting, which is an attractive feature in NSW given the presence of rangeland, temperate and sub-tropical climates which have skewed, normal and log-normal rainfall distributions.

Soil Water Index (SWI)

The SI is calculated using the same procedure as the RI, but uses a soil moisture field derived from the DPI AgriModTM soil water balance. Plant available soil water from layer one (0-10cm) and layer two (11-45 cm), the assumed maximum rooting zone, are aggregated and used to calculate the SWI. Similar to the RI, the SWI is an index between 0 and 100. In most districts of NSW a value of 0 means there is no plant available water held in the profile. The SWI is a hydrological index, but its configuration means that it is more useful as an indicator of conditions for dryland than irrigated agriculture.

Plant Growth Index (PGI)

The PGI is calculated using the same general procedure as the RI, using the output from DPI’s crop and pasture models. Crop stress and pasture growth data are taken from DPI AgriModTM, and the percentile rank calculated for each day. If the predominant land use in a given area is cropping, the PGI uses the crop-derived data, otherwise it uses the pasture growth indicator. The PGI is an agronomic drought index which is not only sensitive to moisture but also temperature variation and seasonal events such as frost. It is important to note that the PGI tracks the influence of climate on production potential across broad areas only. This provides a regional indicator of conditions. In the paddock, management decisions like fertiliser application and timing, sowing times and stocking rates drive outcomes on the ground, and in-field conditions can be above or below the regional indicator reported by EDIS.

BACKGROUND

The main water supply (other than the village systems of Wooli and Minnie Water) in the Clarence Valley is sourced from the Nymboida River, flowing through a section of the wider Clarence River catchment area.

At this time of year the Clarence Valley urban water supply is drawing around 14.26ML/per day from the river weir.

The Nymboida River also gravity feeds water to Shannon Creek Dam when required and, if the Nymboida river flow is too low (less than 225 Megalitres a day) or turbid post-flood, the Clarence Valley's principal urban areas receive water sourced from the off-stream storage at Shannon Creek.

Overall, Shannon Creek Dam is used to supply the Clarence Valley’s water about 5% of the time. Right now this dam is at 99% capacity.

This scenario is complicated by the fact that historically the Clarence Valley also supplies water out of the catchment to Coffs Harbour City local government area and this draw on catchment water is constant and always exceeding an optimal sustainability level for average daily drawn down.

Cartoons of the Week

David Pope

David Rowe

Cathy Wilcox

The most immediate climate change scenario for New South Wales coastal zone 2024-2050 has been refined by AdaptNSW using NARCliM 2.0 data

 

The Earth is beginning to periodically exceed an annual global air-sea temperature of 1.5°C - the first 12-month period to exceed 1.5°C as an average was February 2023 to January 2024 when the EU Union Copernicus Climate Change Service stated the annual average as 1.52°C above pre-industrial levels.

According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology the national temperature dataset covering the last 114 years since meteorological observations began to be collated in this country reveal that by 2024 Australia's average temperature over the continental land mass has already warmed by 1.5°C plus or minus 0.23°C since 1910.

The NSW and Australian Regional Climate Modelling (NARCliM 2.0) released in August 2024 states:

NSW and the ACT have already warmed by

1.4°C since national records began in 1910.

This local warming figure represents surface air temperature over land in NSW and is not directly comparable to average estimates of global warming which include surface air temperature over both land and ocean. Surface warming occurs faster over land than the ocean. Significant impacts from climate change are already occurring in NSW and are expected to be felt more widely in the future.....

The NARCliM "New South Wales Climate Change Snapshot" (August 2024) can be found at:

https://www.climatechange.environment.nsw.gov.au/sites/default/files/2024-08/NARCliM2-Snapshot-NSW.pdf

and

NARCliM "North Coast Climate Change Snapshot" (August 2024) covering the coastal zone from the Port Macquarie district up to the Tweed district on the NSW-Qld border at:

https://www.climatechange.environment.nsw.gov.au/sites/default/files/2024-08/NARCliM2-Snapshot-NorthCoast.pdf

The bottom line is that based on climate science and recorded data to date, across the the next 26 years to 2050 the NSW North Coast and its communities are predicted to experience:

• Average temperature increase of 1.7°C;

• Hot days per year will increase by 8.6 days;

• Severe fire weather days per year will increase by 0.5 days;

• Average annual rainfall will be reduced by somewhere between -0.6% to -11.5%. The rainfall ensemble range would see fluctuations of between -12.1% to -26.1% & +10.9% to +11.9%.

• Sea level will rise by 23cm [0.23m].

In this NARCliM scenario sea level rise is expected to have a major impact on NSW's coastal communities in the coming decades with seawater inundation expected to continue to rise for centuries and last for millennia.

Modelling predicts that north-east NSW sea levels will rise ahead of the remainder of the state's coastal ocean and North Coast low lying coastal flood plains and coastal settlements will experience this sea water inundation.

BACKGROUND

NSW Government, AdaptNSW, August 2024:

To understand and plan for the likely impacts of climate change, we need trusted data and tools.

For over a decade, the NSW and Australian Regional Climate Modelling (NARCliM) project has provided robust climate change projections to support government, business and communities to mitigate and adapt to climate change.

NARCliM2.0 offers 150 years of continuous climate model data, including historical data and future projections, spanning from 1951 to 2100, at a 4km resolution across NSW and south-eastern Australia.

CLIMATE CHANGE STATE OF PLAY 2024: “Now we are finding that atmospheric CO2 levels are increasing faster than ever. We must recognize that these are clear signals of the damage carbon dioxide pollution is doing to the climate system, and take rapid action to cut fossil fuel use as quickly as we can.”

In a month where Australia is breaking the lowest seasonal temperature records in parts of Australia just weeks after setting maximum temperatures records in another seasonal extreme - while some countries in Europe are either experiencing heatwaves or wildfires at the same time others are experiencing heavy snowfalls or catastrophic flooding - it is no longer being whispered but shouted out that "global warming is now becoming so extreme and non-linear that combined with habitat destruction, pollution, and overkilling of species it threatens collapse in the natural world including human systems within years not decades" [Ben See, climate activist, September 2024].

This is happening because although for decades now global heating of the Earth system has been unequivocal, detected acceleration of Earth heating has never been so sharply evident as it has become in the last two years.

2024 is also the year when evidence suggests that the rapid increase in CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere being recorded may now be independent of the amount of greenhouse gas emissions being released into the atmosphere by human activity. In other words, global warming's effect on the Earth may have passed a tipping point from which there is no return to a pre-industrial era global climate for millennia.

16 September 2024:

"The global temperature according to NASA data. Anyone who is still wondering about #ExtremeWeather and flooding has either missed out on several decades of climate research or deliberately repressed it. #Flood" **

Click on graph to enlarge

Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf, (@rahmstorf) Head of Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research & Professor of Physics of the Oceans, Potsdam University

** Text of tweet translated from German to English by Google Translate

U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), News Release, 6 June 2024:

During a year of extremes, carbon dioxide levels surge faster than ever

The two-year increase in Keeling Curve peak is the largest on record

June 6, 2024 — Carbon dioxide is accumulating in the atmosphere faster than ever — accelerating on a steep rise to levels far above any experienced during human existence, scientists from NOAA and the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California San Diego announced today....

From January through April, NOAA and Scripps scientists said CO2 concentrations increased more rapidly than they have in the first four months of any other year. The surge has come even as one highly regarded international report has found that fossil fuel emissions, the main driver of climate change, have plateaued in recent years.

“Over the past year, we’ve experienced the hottest year on record, the hottest ocean temperatures on record and a seemingly endless string of heat waves, droughts, floods, wildfires and storms,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D. “Now we are finding that atmospheric CO2 levels are increasing faster than ever. We must recognize that these are clear signals of the damage carbon dioxide pollution is doing to the climate system, and take rapid action to cut fossil fuel use as quickly as we can.” ....

Extreme floods, rain, wind, storm, hail, heat, drought and bushfire are already impacting Australia's economic growth - now Zurich Insurance & Mandela Partners are calculating the extent tourism will be affected

"Australians have focused a lot on the transition risks of climate change: focusing on the impacts that different carbon abatement policies will have on the economy and on communities in an effort to reduce emissions. But we focus much less on the physical impacts of climate change which are already occurring and, on current projections, will continue to worsen.

Why is this? One reason is data. There are many datasets which have been used to analyse the impact of different carbon abatement policies. The same cannot be said for adaptation.

This is the core innovation of the Zurich Resilience Solutions (ZRS) capability. By mapping the physical risks of climate change across every 10 square meters in Australia, it provides unparalleled insights into the tangible impacts of climate change on different assets and locations."

["The Zurich-Mandala Climate Risk Index: The impact of climate change on the Australian tourism industry", September 2024]

For the last two decades science has been telling the Australian general public that flood, rain, wind, storm, hail, heat, drought and bushfire are the horsemen of climate change and they are upon us now - not arriving some time in a distant future. Now the insurance industry is pointing to this fact of life.

The Zurich-Mandela risk report released this month looks at the effect climate change will have on Australia's natural and manmade tourism assets.

Given the degree to which tourism underpins local economies and the wider NSW Northern Rivers regional economy generating as it does up to $1.6 billion annually supporting est.14,416 jobs, this is a serious issue for the far north, its seven local government areas and the estimated 315,775 men, women and children who live there.

The Northern Rivers tourism industry is known to be vulnerable to externalities. Since 2018, flooding and bushfires have damaged natural amenity and infrastructure, while COVID-19 restrictions reduced visitation and spend in the region, with total visitor expenditure in 2021 down $423 million on 2019 levels.

[Dept. of Regional NSW, Northern Rivers Regional Economic Development Strategy – 2023 Update]

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Zurich Insurance Group, media release, 7 September 2024:

Zurich and Mandala release first Climate Risk Index for the Australian tourism sector

9 September 2024

Zurich Financial Services Australia (Zurich) and Mandala Partners (Mandala) today released Australia’s first Climate Risk Index for the Australian tourism sector.

Utilising Zurich’s global exposure analysis capability, the report analyses the impact of climate change on Australia’s top tourism sites – including major airports, national parks, beaches and museums – under different Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios.

The Index – the first comprehensive, quantitative climate assessment of its kind for Australian tourism – finds that currently, half of Australia’s tourism assets are in an elevated risk category, facing considerable climate and natural peril risk.

This is set to rise to between 55 and 68 per cent of Australian tourism sites by 2050 under either an intermediate (two degrees Celsius of warming by 2041-2060) or extreme (three degrees) IPCC future climate scenario respectively. Under the more extreme scenario, 80 per cent of tourism sites will experience an increase in risk between 2025 and 2050.

Australia’s tourism industry plays an important role in the nation’s economy, contributing more than $170 billion in annual expenditure and over 620,000 jobs.

In terms of economic impact, around 30 per cent (up to 176,000) of these jobs nationally could be jeopardised – 65 per cent of which are outside our capital cities – in the event of a disaster scenario similar to that experienced following the bushfires of 2019-20.

The analysis also reveals that climate risk varies significantly by geography and site type (natural or man-made).

Queensland has both the highest number of sites facing elevated risks (79 per cent) and the most sites in the highest risk category (52 per cent) compared to any other jurisdiction. After Queensland, Western Australia and the Northern Territory have 69 per cent and 63 per cent of sites in the highest risk categories, respectively. Across the southern states, the risks were relatively lower.

By site category, the Index finds that all 31 of the busiest airports in Australia fall into the highest climate risk categories, including 94 per cent in the most extreme category, due to their geographic location and susceptibility to perils such as wind and storms.

Similarly, all of the analysed wine growing regions, botanic gardens, scenic roads & rail, and rainforests & national parks were found to be in the highest climate risk categories. Natural geological formations, museums, galleries and stadia face relatively lower risk.

Justin Delaney, Chief Executive Officer, Zurich Australia & New Zealand, said: “Australia’s tourism assets not only play a significant role in an increasingly diverse visitor economy but are collectively central to our national identity.”

“This analysis, conducted in partnership with Mandala, serves to highlight the critical importance of improving resilience across our tourism assets, both to ensure the sustainability and longevity of these sites and to minimise downstream economic impacts – particularly in regional areas – on employment, business formation, consumption and investment.”

“More broadly, it also serves to highlight the quantum of data and insights that are available to understand the prevailing risk environment in order to shape and prepare our collective response,” Mr Delaney said.

Adam Triggs, Partner, Mandala Partners, said: “In Australia, we have focused a lot on how to reduce carbon emissions but have focused less on how to prepare for the physical impacts of climate change that we are already seeing: tourist attractions destroyed by bushfires, tourism sites made inaccessible by floods, man-made attractions damaged by hail and airports closed because of extreme winds”.

“A key reason for Australia’s more limited focus on the physical impacts of climate change is a lack of data, and this is exactly the gap that our partnership with Zurich seeks to fill,” Dr Triggs said.

The release of the Climate Risk Index for the tourism sector builds upon and follows a similar analysis by Zurich and Mandala on the climate risk facing the Australian energy generation sector in November 2023, the first assessment of its kind for an entire critical infrastructure asset class.

A full version of the report is available here.

-ENDS-

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Excerpts from the Zurich-Mandela report.

Source: Zurich Resilience Solutions using Jupiter Intelligence’s ClimateScore Global 2.6; Mandala analysis

Despite more natural sites facing climate risk overall, the proportion of man-made sites facing severe risk is higher

The Zurich-Mandala Climate Risk Index found that currently, 55% of natural tourism sites in Australia face climate risk. Of these sites, 14% are in the highest risk category, a further 23% are in the second highest category and 17% are in the third highest.

Most natural sites in Australia are either national parks, rainforests or beaches. These sites face significant risk from floods, storms and bushfires due to the potential for environmental degradation, which can permanently alter these sites. Extreme weather can also result in seasonal shifts, disrupt ecosystems and impact tourist visitation patterns.

Despite a higher volume of natural sites showing vulnerability to climate change overall, the proportion of impacted man-made sites facing severe risk is higher. Just under half of all man-made assets fall within the top three risk categories, with one quarter of these in the highest risk category. The most at-risk man-made sites are vineyards and airports, which face significant risk from heat, bushfires and flooding. Likewise, scenic roads (including bridges) and railways face significant risk....

In the 25 years from 2025 to 2050, the proportion of Australia’s tourism sites in the three highest climate risk categories will rise from 50% to 55%. Sites in the highest three risk categories are likely to face significant risk from multiple perils with a high impact on environmental degradation, tourism functionality and appeal, accessibility, and ecosystem balance (i.e. a national park with a ‘high risk’ from storms and a ‘very high risk’ from heat).

Under the more severe SSP5-8.5 climate scenario, which assumes little or no climate action and up to three degrees of warming by 2041-2060, 80% of sites will see an increase in risk between 2025 and 2050. Under this scenario, 68% of all sites will be in risk category 3 or above by 2050.....

Cartoon of the Week

When Summer comes before Spring begins.......

Matt Golding

Priority Site 9 land release at Junction Hill in Clarence Valley been given the go ahead under the NSW Government Resilient Homes Program

Junction Hill, Clarence Valley NSW
showing undeveloped elevated land
between Summerland Way & Trenayr Road
IMAGE: Google Earth, July 2024

More homes for the Northern Rivers as another site is released

Published: 29 August 2024

Released by: Minister for Emergency Services, Minister for Planning and Public Spaces, Minister for Regional Transport and Roads

As part of the Minns Government’s plan to build disaster-resilient housing in the Northern Rivers, a new agreement to progress the delivery of up to 1,000 homes for families in the Grafton area through one of Australia’s largest flood-resilience programs is now underway.

This is the seventh land release of the $100 million Resilient Lands Program (RLP), which is being delivered alongside the joint State and Commonwealth funded $790 million Resilient Homes Program, providing safer choices for people to live in the Northern Rivers after the 2022 floods.

Junction Hill has been released alongside sites in East Lismore, Goonellabah, North Lismore, Brunswick Heads, Casino and Lennox Heads-Ballina already identified. Combined, the current RLP sites will see potentially more than 4,300 homes delivered across the region.

A Memorandum of Understanding between the NSW Reconstruction Authority (RA), Transport for NSW and the Clarence Valley Council will identify transport infrastructure improvements for the Junction Hill site near Grafton, a vital step to supporting growth and more homes for the region.

The NSW Government also announced the details of the Resilient Lands Strategy which includes additional sites in Murwillumbah, Goonellabah and Kyogle and underpins the NSW Government’s commitment to provide more housing choices by accelerating the supply of land for residents impacted by the 2022 floods in the Northern Rivers.

The Resilient Lands Strategy involved a process of community consultation and expert peer review, which began in late 2022 with more than 300 potential housing sites identified under an EOI process. The Strategy has been designed to complement, not replace, current land releases and other housing developments in the region.

The RA is now working with Councils, landowners, infrastructure providers and a range of delivery partners to accelerate land and housing developments as quickly as possible.

For more information, visit the NSW Reconstruction Authority.

Minister for Planning and Public Spaces Paul Scully said:

“It is critical that communities are assisted in building resilience to natural disasters.

“The release of land at Junction Hill and the release of the Resilient Lands Strategy demonstrates the Minns Government is serious about properly planning for the future.

“In the Northern Rivers, housing stress and homelessness remains high. More than 16,000 households are paying more than 30% of their gross income on housing.

“With this land release up to 4,300 flood resilient home sites are being created and are in the planning pipeline across the Northern Rivers.”

Minister for Emergency Services Jihad Dib said:

“The Resilient Lands Program will accelerate the delivery of new land and housing to provide locals with more options in safer locations.

“Clarence Valley becomes the fifth council to be announced for assistance under the Resilient Lands Program, while work with other councils will continue.

“We know this requires a team effort, and I am pleased to see the collaboration between government agencies and councils to bring the reality of more housing closer for people in the Northern Rivers.”

Minister for Regional Transport and Roads Jenny Aitchison said:

"The Minns Labor Government is committed to collaborative development through the Resilient Lands Strategy to ensure people in the Northern Rivers have safer homes, that are connected to health services, education, jobs and other opportunities.

"Good transport infrastructure and connectivity is vital for the success of new housing developments, particularly in the regions, and the release of land at Junction Hill will provide that."

Parliamentary Secretary for Disaster Recovery Janelle Saffin said:

“Flood-affected communities across the Northern Rivers region have been keenly interested in safer land and housing options being identified.

“I’m pleased to see the Clarence Valley LGA, which I used to represent as a Federal MP and where I still have strong connections, added to the councils receiving support under the Resilient Lands Program, and there is more to come.”

Member for Clarence, Richie Williamson said:

“This site has been zoned for development for some time. It’s flat, flood free and has services available and is within a few minutes of town, a rarity in the Northern rivers.

“The only thing holding back development is the upgrades needed to transport infrastructure. This is a great initiative of the NSW Government which is working collaboratively with the partners involved.”

 

Have you perhaps been wondering to what degree the health and wellbeing of women & girls will be valued as the global patriarchal structure shudders under the ongoing environmental, geopolitical, economic, and social shocks flowing from climate change? You are not the only one.

The Lancet

Vol 404 August 24, 2024

Many crises, one call to action: advancing gender equality in health in response to polycrises

Rajat Khosla, Gita Sen,

Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus,

Winnie Byanyima, Sima Bahous,

Debora Diniz, et al.

Published: July 24, 2024

The state of polycrises linked to concurrent conflict, climate catastrophe, the COVID-19 pandemic, the ongoing HIV epidemic, and geopolitical, economic, and social shocks is a cause of deep concern for the global health community. Polycrises, including the ongoing atrocities in Gaza, Sudan, and Myanmar, political movements in different countries that threaten to over-turn human rights and climate laws, or the flash floods in Bangladesh, Brazil, and Tanzania, have led to a new era likely to worsen gender inequalities and health challenges in terms of scale, severity, and complexity. Not only have these crises laid bare injustices and entrenched gender-based intersectional inequalities that exist in health, but they have also deepened and widened health disparities within and across countries, with differences starkly marked along lines of income, sex, age, race, ethnicity, migratory status, disability, and geographical location, among other factors.1

Taking stock of the gendered impact of polycrises is the first step towards forging a collective response from governments and the global health community. Globally, women make up the majority of extreme poor among people aged 15 years and older, with the gender poverty gap forecast to widen by 2030.2 Disproportionate job losses and limited access to financial resources in a climate of economic insecurity have pushed women into precarious work environments, jeopardising their health, integrity, and safety.3 The responsibilities of caregiving also intensifies during polycrises, with women and girls taking on greater responsibilities, including childcare, care of ill or dependent persons, and older persons care, and frequently neglecting their own health needs.4, 5 Clinic closures, resource shortages, and displacement due to crises disproportionately affect women's access to health services, such as reproductive health care, prenatal care, and safe childbirth.6 Even some high-income nations are among the 19 countries that had a higher maternal mortality ratio in 2020 compared with 1990. 7 Furthermore, conflict, climate displacement, and the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are contributing to concerning increases in gender-based violence and harmful practices such as child, early, and forced marriage, female genital mutilation, and son preference.7

The adverse impacts of polycrises on women's and girls' rights and health extend to their crucial roles as health workers. Women, who make up almost 70% of the global health workforce and 90% of nurses and midwives, are the front line of the health system; they deliver vital health services during crises and are often exposed to violence, especially in places affected by conflict.8, 9 Yet women in the health workforce are usually inadequately paid, insufficiently valued, and under-represented in leadership and decision-making positions.10

Alongside polycrises, there have been unprecedented attacks on the bodily autonomy, choices, and human rights of women and girls.7 Globally organised movements have mobilised against laws related to access to safe abortion and contraception, LGBTQI+ rights, and comprehensive sexuality education.7 This is visible in different forms, ranging from increasing levels of violence, hate speech, and misinformation campaigns to difficulties accessing funding for health and human rights organisations and the introduction of regressive laws or failure to eliminate discriminatory laws and policies.11

In this climate of competing priorities and recurrent crises, governments, UN agencies, donors, and civil society groups collectively hold immense power to ensure action is taken to advance and prioritise women's rights, gender equality, and human rights, including the right to health. This approach is paramount for mitigating and preventing the deepening of future crises.12 Evidence indicates that narrowing the gap in women's health would avoid 24 million life-years lost due to disability, add more than US$1 trillion to the global economy, and increase economic productivity by up to $400 billion.13 However, these investments need to be combined with enabling legislation and support for gender equality in health, including bodily autonomy and integrity more broadly. In this context, it is only through true collective action that we can bring about the changes that are direly needed. In particular, our joint efforts need to focus on three key areas.

First, funding and increased support are needed to strengthen investments, partnerships, and research led by grass-roots communities and feminist and women-led civil society organisations. Communities, notably, feminist and women-led civil society groups, hold a rich understanding of how crises play out and affect gender disparities, health, and rights of communities. They are well placed to document and deepen our understanding of this impact and identify contextually relevant solutions to advance gender equality and rights. During a crisis feminist and women-led organisations are also often directly involved in the provision of health services, including sexual and reproductive health services and information, in contexts where public goods and services are limited or no longer available.14, 15 Despite widespread evidence of the essential roles of feminist civil society and movements, investments in community-led research and partnerships are shrinking and being deprioritised in the context of polycrises.16, 17 Governments, UN agencies, and donors must act now and reverse this trend.

Second, policies are needed to support alignment across institutions and struggles for equality and rights. Fragmentation is happening at multiple levels and includes disjointed systems that promote siloes, competition, or polarisation between movements striving for gender equality and women's rights.18, 19 These challenges can manifest as the frequent exclusion of ministries of finance in discussions to ensure the right to health and wellbeing of women and girls, or as hostile attacks between gender equality and rights-based movements that unfold on social media platforms, quickly degenerating into the use of stigmatising labels and exclusionary language. Irrespective of how this fragmentation develops, it is fuelling mistrust and creating restrictive environments that hinder meaningful collaboration and collective action. It is imperative that collective efforts better integrate systems and processes and build links across struggles, particularly the multiple intersections of inequalities.

Third, financial responses at global, regional, and national levels need to be formulated so that they support gender equality and women's rights. Current financial responses during crises frequently impede the upholding of human rights and in turn deepen income inequalities.20 For instance, immense pressure on governments to focus on austerity policies and debt repayments during and after crises detracts from investments in essential public services and in communities that have been most impacted.20 The global financial architecture, right down to national budgets and ministries of health and finance, needs to have a more deliberate approach to investing in gender-related issues and women's rights to ensure support is provided to the communities and groups most affected by crises. Learning from and with feminist financing models offers a strong baseline to build from.21, 22 Not only will this approach support short-term stabilisation during crises, but it will also build long-term resilience and equity in resource mobilisation and allocation.

Global overlapping crises are worsening gender equality and health disparities. Addressing these issues requires us to unite political, health, and civil society leadership efforts towards reinforcing community-driven partnerships, reforming financial and health strategies to support equality, and integrating systems to create cohesive responses. Now is the crucial moment to act.

1 World Economic Forum. The global risks report 2023. 2023. https://www.weforum.org/publications/global-risks-report-2023/ (accessed July 8, 2024).

2 UN Women. From insights to action: gender equality in the wake of COVID-19. 2020. https://www.unwomen.org/en/digital-library/publications/2020/09/gender-equality-in-the-wake-of-covid-19 (accessed July 8, 2024).

3 International Labour Organization. Policy brief: a gender-responsive employment recovery: building back fairer. 2020. https://www.ilo.org/publications/gender-responsive-employment-recovery-building-back-fairer (accessed July 8, 2024).

4 UN Women. Gender alert: the gendered impact of the crisis in Gaza.2024. https://www.unwomen.org/sites/default/files/202401/Gender%20Alert%20The%20Gendered%20Impact%20of%20the%20Crisis%20in%20 Gaza.pdf (accessed July 8, 2024).

5 Power K. The COVID-19 pandemic has increased the care burden of women and families. Sustainability Sci Pract Policy 2020; 16: 67–73.

6 World Economic Forum. Why we need more female voices while addressing humanitarian crises. 2022. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/05/listening-to-female-voices-can-stop-humanitarian-crises-harmingwomen-s-and-girls-health/ (accessed July 8, 2024).

7 UNFPA. Interwoven lives, threads of hope: ending inequalities in sexual and reproductive health and rights. 2024. https://www.unfpa.org/ swp2024 (accessed July 8, 2024).

8 Ignacio AR, Sales K, Tamayo RL. Seeking gender equality in the global health workforce. Think Global Health. March 8, 2024. https://www.thinkglobalhealth.org/article/seeking-gender-equality-global-healthworkforce (accessed July 8, 2024).

9 WHO, Global Health Workforce Network, Women in Global Health. Closing the leadership gap: gender equity and leadership in the global health and care workforce. 2021. https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789240025905 (accessed July 8, 2024).

10 Phillips G, Kendino M, Brolan CE, et al. Women on the frontline: exploring the gendered experience for Pacific healthcare workers during the COVID-19 pandemic. Lancet Reg Health West Pac 2023; 42: 100961.

11 Petersen MJ. Religion, gender, and sexuality: three points on freedom of religion or belief. BYU Law International Center for Law and Religion Studies. Nov 21, 2022. https://talkabout.iclrs.org/2022/11/21/religiongender-and-sexuality/ (accessed July 8, 2024).

12 Percival V, Thoms OT, Oppenheim B, et al. The Lancet Commission on peaceful societies through health equity and gender equality. Lancet 2023; 402: 1661–722.

13 World Economic Forum. Closing the women’s health gap: a $1 trillion opportunity to improve lives and economies. 2024. https://www.weforum.org/publications/closing-the-women-s-health-gap-a-1-trillionopportunity-to-improve-lives-and-economies/ (accessed July 8, 2024).

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