Battle of the Political Opinion Polls November 2023

 

Two very different sources, two very different results, published two days apart - who does one believe?

Roy Morgan Research, Market Research Update, email, 28 November 2023:

Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention shows support for the ALP recovering – up 3% points: ALP 52.5% cf. L-NP 47.5%

The ALP has regained the lead on 52.5% (up 3% on a week ago) ahead of the Coalition on 47.5% (down 3%) on a two-party preferred basis according to the latest Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention conducted last week.

The result halts a run of three straight weeks of declines for the ALP.

On primary vote the Coalition is now on 35%, down 2.5% from a week ago, ahead of the ALP on 32%, up 2.5%. The Greens are unchanged on 13.5% and One Nation is on 5%, down 1.5%.

There has been a gain in support for Independents on 9%, up 2%, but a drop in support for Other Parties on 5.5%, down 0.5%.

The latest Roy Morgan Poll is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,379 Australian electors from November 20-26, 2023.

The Australian, Latest Newspoll, 26 November 2023:

Newspoll Two Party Preferred results
10.02.19 to 25.11.23
Click on image to enlarge

Federal Primary Voting Intention:

ALP 31 (-4)

Coalition 38 (+1)

Greens 13 (+1)

One Nation 6 (no change)

Other 12 (+2)

Federal Two Party Preferred:

ALP 50 (-2)

Coalition 50 (+2)

Preferred Prime Minister:

Albanese 46 (no change)

Dutton 35 (-1)

Leaders Approval Rating:

Dutton: Approve 37 (no change) Disapprove 50 (no change)

Albanese: Approve 40 (-2) Disapprove 53 (+1)

Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says the latest Roy Morgan Poll into NSW voting intention shows the election is still ‘up for grabs’ just over a month before 25 March election day

 

Roy Morgan Research, media release, excerpt, 21 February 2023:

Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says the latest Roy Morgan Poll into NSW voting intention shows the election is still ‘up for grabs’ just over a month before election day in late March with the ALP holding a narrow two-party preferred lead over the Liberal-National Coalition:

“The latest Roy Morgan Poll of NSW voting intention shows the ALP on 52% narrowly ahead of the Liberal-National Coalition on 48% on a two-party preferred basis. This result is a reverse of the 2019 New South Wales election when the L-NP won a majority of 48 seats in the 93 seat lower house.

“The primary voting intention shows an almost three way split between the Coalition on 35% ahead of the ALP on 32.5% and another 32.5% supporting other parties and independents. This result is very similar to last year’s Federal Election when the ALP won Government despite receiving only 32.6% of the primary vote, even less than the L-NP on 35.7%.

“The low primary vote for the major parties increases the importance of preferences from minor parties and independents. Around half of the support for this group is flowing to two minor parties on either side of politics – the left-wing Greens on 9.5% and right-wing One Nation on 6.5%.

“Greens support traditionally flows strongly to the ALP via preferences at a rate of around 85% while One Nation support flows via preferences at a rate of around 65% to the Coalition. However, the optional preferential voting (OPV) used in NSW means voters need not direct their preferences to any party beyond their first choice.

“The OPV system allows voters to simply number their ballot paper with a ‘1’ for their preferred candidate to register a valid vote. Analysis of prior NSW State elections shows around 50% of voters direct preferences to exhaustion while the other 50% of voters don’t.

“The OPV system therefore makes it harder for parties finishing second, or even third, in the primary vote to overtake the leading party on preferences – favouring the party with the highest primary vote. Not since the 1995 NSW State election has a party won government despite receiving a lower primary vote.

“One interesting result from this month’s voting intention results in NSW is that support for One Nation increased 2% points to 6.5% - the highest level of support for the party since the 1999 NSW State Election over 20 years ago when the party scored 7.5% of the vote.

“One reason for the rise in support for One Nation may have been the recruitment of former Labour MP Tania Mihailuk during January. Mihailuk has represented the seat of Bankstown in the western suburbs since 2011 before resigning from the ALP in 2022 and joining One Nation in mid-January.

“Upon joining One Nation Mihailuk became the first One Nation MP to represent a lower house seat in the NSW Parliament and will run for the Legislative Council in second place behind NSW One Nation Leader Mark Latham – a former Federal ALP Leader.”

Less than 50 days out from a federal general election Roy Morgan Research reveals that by March 2022 "government leaders dominate the Net Distrust Score rankings: Prime Minister Scott Morrison is the most distrusted politician in Australia, with Defence Minister Peter Dutton and Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce the second and third most distrusted sitting politicians across the country"

Roy Morgan Research, 22 March 2022:

Since March 2019 government trust & distrust have fluctuated but 2021 ended with soaring levels of distrust

March 22 2022 Finding No. 8933 Topic: Press Release Country: Australia

Roy Morgan surveys on ‘Trust’ and ‘Distrust’ of government and government services show distrust levels soared in the second half of 2021 while trust in government fell after sexual assault allegations in Parliament house emerged in early 2021 and were followed by further allegations against Government MPs Christian Porter, Alan Tudge and Andrew Laming.

A look at trust and distrust during the term of the current government shows distrust in government and Government services has consistently far exceeded the level of trust leading to a consistently negative ‘Net Trust Score’ since early 2019.

During the early stages of the pandemic there was a clear increase in trust in Government and government services, however this higher than usual level of trust peaked at the end of 2020 and early in 2021 before the sexual assault allegations from Liberal Party staffer Brittany Higgins emerged.

The sexual assault allegations surrounding the Morrison Government have lingered over the past year and from June 2021 the emergence of the ‘Delta variant’ laid bare the Government’s lack of preparedness for another outbreak of COVID-19.

The extended lockdowns in Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra in the second half of 2021 along with the failure to procure enough vaccines and ‘Rapid Antigen Tests’ later in the year when the ‘Omicron variant’ emerged have seen distrust levels in government increase to record levels.

Government & Government services: Trust, Distrust and Net Trust (March 2019 – Dec. 2021)

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia). Risk Monitor. Base: Australians 14+, Latest 12 months average n=21,314; Latest 12 months average for industry n=700. Includes ABS, ACCC, AEC, ASIC, ATO, Centrelink, Comcare, CSIRO, Defence Force, Education Department, Federal Government, Government (unspecified), Local Government, Medicare, My Health Record, NDIS, Queensland Health, State Government, VicHealth.

According to Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine: “If we take a much longer view and go back to 2007, we see that during the Labor disunity of the Rudd / Gillard years distrust in the Australian government was very high while simultaneously any belief that the government was doing a good job was really low.

“That pattern remained pretty constant through the Abbott, Turnbull and early Morrison governments.

“Then in 2019 when Scott Morrison won the ‘unwinnable’ election things changed - more people believed the government was doing a good job and fewer people distrusted the government.

“But by June 2021 it all went into reverse - Black Summer bushfires, the end of JobKeeper, parliamentary sex scandals, COVID vaccination delays – all sent trust plummeting and distrust climbing.”

Government distrust (red) vs. Government doing a good job running the country (green)

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia). Base: Australians 14+; quarterly average.

“By March 2022 this pattern was being mirrored in the trust and distrust of our political leaders.”

From a snap SMS survey conducted in early March, Roy Morgan can reveal that government leaders dominate the Net Distrust Score rankings: Prime Minister Scott Morrison is the most distrusted politician in Australia, with Defence Minister Peter Dutton and Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce the second and third most distrusted sitting politicians across the country.

Source: Roy Morgan Snap SMS survey conducted on February 28 – March 1, 2022. Base: Australians aged 14+. n=1,409.

Clive Palmer (not in parliament and therefore not in the rankings) has the highest Net Distrust Score (net scores are calculated by subtracting distrust scores from trust scores). Taking distrust on its own however Scott Morrison is more distrusted than Clive Palmer.

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has improved his Net Distrust Score ranking to be in 9th position (from 4th place in March 2020).

“With Peter Dutton the second most distrusted politician in Australia and Josh Frydenberg almost out of the top ten, this may well become crucial if the Coalition loses the May election and there’s a leadership battle between Frydenberg & Dutton,” said Ms. Levine.

“Australian political contests are no longer purely won on trust, they are lost on distrust.”

The March survey reveals the political reverse when it comes to the most trusted political leaders in the country. The ALP dominates the Net Trust Score rankings with Penny Wong in the #1 position.

Source: Roy Morgan Snap SMS survey conducted on February 28 – March 1, 2022. Base: Australians aged 14+. n=1,409.

Anthony Albanese has improved his Net Trust Score ranking to move from 8th position in March 2020 to 2nd place by March 2022. Looking solely at trust, the Opposition Leader is the most trusted politician in Australia.

According to Michele Levine, “The Labor Party is the big winner in this survey with Anthony Albanese the most trusted sitting politician, followed by Penny Wong, Tanya Plibersek and WA Premier Mark McGowan.

“My take-out from the significant win for Mark McGowan in last year’s WA election and the big swing away from the increasingly distrusted Coalition in Saturday’s South Australian election is that the upcoming federal election will be won or lost on how distrusted a party’s leaders are.

“And a final word on the SA election, my view is not so much that the various polls got it right but that respondents to the pre-election polls did on election day what they said they were going to do.”