Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says the latest Roy Morgan Poll into NSW voting intention shows the election is still ‘up for grabs’ just over a month before 25 March election day

 

Roy Morgan Research, media release, excerpt, 21 February 2023:

Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says the latest Roy Morgan Poll into NSW voting intention shows the election is still ‘up for grabs’ just over a month before election day in late March with the ALP holding a narrow two-party preferred lead over the Liberal-National Coalition:

“The latest Roy Morgan Poll of NSW voting intention shows the ALP on 52% narrowly ahead of the Liberal-National Coalition on 48% on a two-party preferred basis. This result is a reverse of the 2019 New South Wales election when the L-NP won a majority of 48 seats in the 93 seat lower house.

“The primary voting intention shows an almost three way split between the Coalition on 35% ahead of the ALP on 32.5% and another 32.5% supporting other parties and independents. This result is very similar to last year’s Federal Election when the ALP won Government despite receiving only 32.6% of the primary vote, even less than the L-NP on 35.7%.

“The low primary vote for the major parties increases the importance of preferences from minor parties and independents. Around half of the support for this group is flowing to two minor parties on either side of politics – the left-wing Greens on 9.5% and right-wing One Nation on 6.5%.

“Greens support traditionally flows strongly to the ALP via preferences at a rate of around 85% while One Nation support flows via preferences at a rate of around 65% to the Coalition. However, the optional preferential voting (OPV) used in NSW means voters need not direct their preferences to any party beyond their first choice.

“The OPV system allows voters to simply number their ballot paper with a ‘1’ for their preferred candidate to register a valid vote. Analysis of prior NSW State elections shows around 50% of voters direct preferences to exhaustion while the other 50% of voters don’t.

“The OPV system therefore makes it harder for parties finishing second, or even third, in the primary vote to overtake the leading party on preferences – favouring the party with the highest primary vote. Not since the 1995 NSW State election has a party won government despite receiving a lower primary vote.

“One interesting result from this month’s voting intention results in NSW is that support for One Nation increased 2% points to 6.5% - the highest level of support for the party since the 1999 NSW State Election over 20 years ago when the party scored 7.5% of the vote.

“One reason for the rise in support for One Nation may have been the recruitment of former Labour MP Tania Mihailuk during January. Mihailuk has represented the seat of Bankstown in the western suburbs since 2011 before resigning from the ALP in 2022 and joining One Nation in mid-January.

“Upon joining One Nation Mihailuk became the first One Nation MP to represent a lower house seat in the NSW Parliament and will run for the Legislative Council in second place behind NSW One Nation Leader Mark Latham – a former Federal ALP Leader.”

Less than 50 days out from a federal general election Roy Morgan Research reveals that by March 2022 "government leaders dominate the Net Distrust Score rankings: Prime Minister Scott Morrison is the most distrusted politician in Australia, with Defence Minister Peter Dutton and Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce the second and third most distrusted sitting politicians across the country"

Roy Morgan Research, 22 March 2022:

Since March 2019 government trust & distrust have fluctuated but 2021 ended with soaring levels of distrust

March 22 2022 Finding No. 8933 Topic: Press Release Country: Australia

Roy Morgan surveys on ‘Trust’ and ‘Distrust’ of government and government services show distrust levels soared in the second half of 2021 while trust in government fell after sexual assault allegations in Parliament house emerged in early 2021 and were followed by further allegations against Government MPs Christian Porter, Alan Tudge and Andrew Laming.

A look at trust and distrust during the term of the current government shows distrust in government and Government services has consistently far exceeded the level of trust leading to a consistently negative ‘Net Trust Score’ since early 2019.

During the early stages of the pandemic there was a clear increase in trust in Government and government services, however this higher than usual level of trust peaked at the end of 2020 and early in 2021 before the sexual assault allegations from Liberal Party staffer Brittany Higgins emerged.

The sexual assault allegations surrounding the Morrison Government have lingered over the past year and from June 2021 the emergence of the ‘Delta variant’ laid bare the Government’s lack of preparedness for another outbreak of COVID-19.

The extended lockdowns in Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra in the second half of 2021 along with the failure to procure enough vaccines and ‘Rapid Antigen Tests’ later in the year when the ‘Omicron variant’ emerged have seen distrust levels in government increase to record levels.

Government & Government services: Trust, Distrust and Net Trust (March 2019 – Dec. 2021)

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia). Risk Monitor. Base: Australians 14+, Latest 12 months average n=21,314; Latest 12 months average for industry n=700. Includes ABS, ACCC, AEC, ASIC, ATO, Centrelink, Comcare, CSIRO, Defence Force, Education Department, Federal Government, Government (unspecified), Local Government, Medicare, My Health Record, NDIS, Queensland Health, State Government, VicHealth.

According to Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine: “If we take a much longer view and go back to 2007, we see that during the Labor disunity of the Rudd / Gillard years distrust in the Australian government was very high while simultaneously any belief that the government was doing a good job was really low.

“That pattern remained pretty constant through the Abbott, Turnbull and early Morrison governments.

“Then in 2019 when Scott Morrison won the ‘unwinnable’ election things changed - more people believed the government was doing a good job and fewer people distrusted the government.

“But by June 2021 it all went into reverse - Black Summer bushfires, the end of JobKeeper, parliamentary sex scandals, COVID vaccination delays – all sent trust plummeting and distrust climbing.”

Government distrust (red) vs. Government doing a good job running the country (green)

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia). Base: Australians 14+; quarterly average.

“By March 2022 this pattern was being mirrored in the trust and distrust of our political leaders.”

From a snap SMS survey conducted in early March, Roy Morgan can reveal that government leaders dominate the Net Distrust Score rankings: Prime Minister Scott Morrison is the most distrusted politician in Australia, with Defence Minister Peter Dutton and Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce the second and third most distrusted sitting politicians across the country.

Source: Roy Morgan Snap SMS survey conducted on February 28 – March 1, 2022. Base: Australians aged 14+. n=1,409.

Clive Palmer (not in parliament and therefore not in the rankings) has the highest Net Distrust Score (net scores are calculated by subtracting distrust scores from trust scores). Taking distrust on its own however Scott Morrison is more distrusted than Clive Palmer.

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has improved his Net Distrust Score ranking to be in 9th position (from 4th place in March 2020).

“With Peter Dutton the second most distrusted politician in Australia and Josh Frydenberg almost out of the top ten, this may well become crucial if the Coalition loses the May election and there’s a leadership battle between Frydenberg & Dutton,” said Ms. Levine.

“Australian political contests are no longer purely won on trust, they are lost on distrust.”

The March survey reveals the political reverse when it comes to the most trusted political leaders in the country. The ALP dominates the Net Trust Score rankings with Penny Wong in the #1 position.

Source: Roy Morgan Snap SMS survey conducted on February 28 – March 1, 2022. Base: Australians aged 14+. n=1,409.

Anthony Albanese has improved his Net Trust Score ranking to move from 8th position in March 2020 to 2nd place by March 2022. Looking solely at trust, the Opposition Leader is the most trusted politician in Australia.

According to Michele Levine, “The Labor Party is the big winner in this survey with Anthony Albanese the most trusted sitting politician, followed by Penny Wong, Tanya Plibersek and WA Premier Mark McGowan.

“My take-out from the significant win for Mark McGowan in last year’s WA election and the big swing away from the increasingly distrusted Coalition in Saturday’s South Australian election is that the upcoming federal election will be won or lost on how distrusted a party’s leaders are.

“And a final word on the SA election, my view is not so much that the various polls got it right but that respondents to the pre-election polls did on election day what they said they were going to do.” 

AUSTRALIAN POLITICAL POLLING: Compare The Pair

 

Oh what a difference a year and one global pandemic make......

19 July 2020

18 July 2021

Newspoll is an Australian opinion polling brand established in 1985, exclusively published by News Corp’s The Australian newspaper and administered by UK based market research and data analytics group, YouGov. The business name "Newspoll" is registered to Nationwide News Pty Ltd a subsidiary of News Corp.

Latest Newspoll has Federal Coalition neck and neck on the primary vote and Labor 6 points ahead on two-party preferred polling, as survey respondents mark PM Scott Morrison down following his mismanagement of the national pandemic response

 

The Australian

The Conversation, 18 July 2021:

Support for Scott Morrison and the government have slumped in Newspoll, in a major backlash against the botched vaccine rollout.

Labor has surged to a two-party lead of 53-47%, compared with 51-49% in the previous poll in late June.

The Australian reports the latest result is the worse for the Coalition this term, and if replicated at an election would deliver the government a clear loss.

Satisfaction with Morrison’s handling of the pandemic – which now sees lockdowns in the nation’s two largest states – plunged nine points in the last three weeks to 52%.

As the brought-forward Pfizer supplies start to arrive, confidence in the government’s management of the rollout is negative for the first time, with only 40% believing it being handled satisfactorily.

Morrison’s net approval in Newspoll – plus 6 – is at its lowest since the bushfire crisis, with an eight point overall shift. Anthony Albanese’s position worsened a little – he is on net minus 8. Despite a small drop, Morrison retains a solid lead over Albanese as better PM – 51-33%

Both Labor and the Coalition are polling 39% on primary votes – a two point fall for the Coalition and an equal rise for Labor.

The poll saw an 18 point drop in satisfaction with the handling of COVID since April.

Satisfaction with the government’s handling of the rollout was 53% in April and 50% in late June - in this poll 40% are satisfied with the handling and 57% are not…...

Less talk about a 2021 federal general election since the impact of Morrison's vaccine procurement & rollout blunders began to bite

 

The hoped for strong surge in support for the Coalition parties is not being realised, while Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison's personal support has been falling since his late April high this year.

An October 2021 federal general election is becoming less of a certainty and News Corp media is reporting that Morrison is telling colleagues that the election will not be held until 2022, with 21 May being put forward as a possible date by former senior Abbott advisor and current Liberal Party campaign director Andrew Hirst.

Newspoll 4-5 June 2021

An online survey of 1,516 respondents conducted by YouGov between Wednesday 2 and Saturday 5 June. The previous survey was conducted on 13-15 May 2021.

Primary vote:

Coalition 41% (unchanged)

Labor 36% (unchanged)

The Greens 11% (-1)

One Nation 3% (+1)

Others 9%

* 7% uncommitted excluded

Two party preferred vote:

Coalition 50% (+1)

Labor 50% (-1)

* preference flows based on recent federal and state elections.

Performance Rating:

Morrison - Satisfied 54% (-4) Dissatisfied 43% (+5) Uncommitted 3% (-1)

Albanese - Satisfied 38% (-1) Dissatisfied 47% (+1) Uncommitted 15% (unchanged)

Better Prime Minister:

Morrison 53% (-2)

Albanese 32% (+2)

Uncommitted 15% (unchanged) 

Essential Report 8 June 2021 

A weekly online survey conducted over 5 days with 1,000+ respondents on average.

• 40% of Australians say they now view Scott Morrison’s federal government less favourably than they did a year ago. A quarter (25%) say they view this more favourably than they did a year ago, and 35% say their views on the federal government have not changed.

• Compared to other Australians, Victorians are more likely to say they view Scott Morrison’s federal government less favourably than they did a year ago. Just under half (48%) of Victorians say this, followed by 45% of Western Australians, 39% of Queenslanders, 37% of South Australians and 34% of those in NSW.

• Since peaking at 70% in March, positive rating of the federal government’s handling of Covid-19 has dropped off; falling to 53% this month which is the lowest rating seen since March last year when this question was first asked.

• Positive rating of the federal government’s handling of Covid-19 has decreased in all states since last month, however it has fallen the most steeply in Victoria where it is now 42% (down 15 percentage points from 57% in May); disapproval of the federal government’s handling of Covid-19 has increased to 36% (from 22% last month) among Victorians.

• Just under half (48%) of participants believe that Scott Morrison would make a better PM than Anthony Albanese (50% last month).

Australian Federal Politics: Newspoll 24-25 April 2021

 

The Australian 26 April 2021

For what it's worth, the first Newspoll of 2021

 

via @Leroy_Lynch

This 27-30 January 2021 Newspoll online survey is based on the answers of 1,512 respondents.

Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison's constant pushing to open state borders is not supported by people of voting age according to late August 2020 Newspoll

Young or old, male or female, regardless of political affiliation, it seems residents in the five states surveyed by Newspoll in late August 2020 are firmly on the side of state premiers keeping their borders closed at this stage of the COVID-19 pandemic. 

The Australian, August 2020:

Popular support for Scott Morrison has fallen for the first time since the height of the pandemic as he takes on the states over their refusal to budge on border closures that are holding back the national economic recovery. 

An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australians shows the federal political contest tightening between the two major parties, with Labor recovering ground to post its highest primary vote since April and levelling the political playing field with the Coalition. 

Primary vote If the federal election for the house of representatives was held today, which one of the following would you vote for? If uncommitted, to which one of these do you have a leaning? 

One Nation numbers have been broken out from 'Other' from October 25, 2016 Newspoll is conducted by YouGov 

The two major parties are now deadlocked 50:50 on a two-party-preferred basis, marking a four-point turnaround in Labor’s favour over the past three weeks. 

The slide in support for the Prime Minister and the Coalition comes on the back of universal and overwhelming support among voters for the premiers’ right to close borders and restrict entry if and when outbreaks occur. 

A special poll conducted for The Australian shows 80 per cent of Australians support border ­closures if the health situation demands it. The results reveal the difficulty for the federal government as it faces off with the states, with the exception of NSW, which it has been blaming for holding back the national economic recovery.....

Support For State Premiers Over Border Closures Amongst Survey Respondents

South Australia - 92 per cent 
West Australia - 91 per cent 
Queensland - 84 per cent 
New South Wales - 76 per cent 
Victoria - 74 per cent.

Support For Premiers Over Border Closures by Political Party

Labor - 88 per cent
Coalition - 73 per cent
Greens - 88 per cent.

Support For Premiers Over Border Closures by Gender

Men - 78 per cent
Women - 82 per cent

Support For Premiers Over Border Closures by Age Group

18-34 years - 86 per cent
35-49 years - 82 per cent
50-64 years - 79 per cent
65 years & over - 73 per cent

According to Roy Morgan Research Prime Minister Scott Morrison is distrusted by a majority of the Australian public - along with US President Donald Trump, Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton and disgraced former deputy-prime minister Barnaby Joyce

Roy Morgan Research, Finding No. 8333 Topic: Public Opinion Press Release, Special Poll Country: Australia New Zealand United States, 19 March 2020:

New Zealand PM Jacinda Ardern has highest ‘Net Trust Score’ of all political leaders while Australian PM Scott Morrison has a ‘Net Distrust Score’ to overcome

A special Roy Morgan survey on ‘Trust’ and ‘Distrust’ of government leaders shows New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern scores the highest ‘Net Trust Score’ of all – meaning the ‘Trust’ felt toward the New Zealand leader far outweighs the ‘Distrust’ – according to a special Roy Morgan Snap SMS Survey of 974 Australians aged 14+ conducted over the last two days.

People surveyed in Australia were asked ‘Which government leaders do you trust. List as many as you can think of?’ and also ‘Which government leaders do you distrust. List as many as you can think of?’ By subtracting distrust from trust we arrive at a Net Trust Score (if trust outweighs distrust) or Net Distrust Score (if distrust outweighs trust).

Women dominate the Net Trust Scores filling four out of the top five positions. Other leaders to score highly on Net Trust include Opposition Leader in the Senate Penny Wong, Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews, NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian and former ALP Deputy Leader Tanya Plibersek.

Top 10 Political Leaders by Net Trust Score

Source: Roy Morgan Snap SMS survey conducted on March 18-19, 2020.

Base: Australians aged 14+. n=974.

Scott Morrison has a ‘Net Distrust Score’ alongside colleague Peter Dutton

Prime Minister Scott Morrison is mentioned as a ‘Trusted’ leader by more Australians than any other. However, unfortunately for Morrison, there are far more Australians that have a ‘Distrust’ of the Prime Minister than ‘Trust’ him – leaving the Prime Minister with a ‘Net Distrust Score’

Other prominent political leaders that have ‘Net Distrust Scores’ include Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton, US President Donald Trump and former National Party Leader Barnaby Joyce.

Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says the New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s trust has been built on taking decisive actions in many challenging situations since becoming Prime Minister:

“New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has demonstrated impressive leadership since taking New Zealand’s top job in responding with empathy to the Christchurch mosque shootings a year ago and the tragedy caused by the eruption of White Island last year. Most recently, Ardern’s decisive leadership was demonstrated with New Zealand becoming the first country to impose harsh restriction on all foreign nationals from entering the country in response to the global COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic.

“In contrast our own Prime Minister Scott Morrison faced a ‘wall of criticism’ for his handling of the Summer bushfire crisis and this has continued for many with his handling of the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic.

“Given the current uncertainties, it is important Australians trust our Prime Minister. Although the results show Morrison is trusted by a wide variety of Australians there are far more that distrust the PM meaning he has a significant ‘Net Distrust Score’.

“One of the most striking results of this unprompted research assessing opinions of political leaders is the leading performance of many of Australia’s female politicians. As well as New Zealand PM Jacinda Ardern on top, Opposition Leader in the Senate Penny Wong, NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian and former ALP Deputy Leader Tanya Plibersek are all in the top five. Former Prime Minister Julia Gillard is also not far behind in eighth position despite living in the United Kingdom for the past few years.

“Additional detail on the reasons Australians have given for ‘Trusting’ and also ‘Distrusting’ this diverse range of political leaders will be released in coming days.”

Morrison has now slumped to the lowest likeability of any Australian leader since Andrew Peacock in 1990

The Canberra Times, 18 February 2020:

Prime Minister Scott Morrison, whose popularity has taken a big hit over the summer. Picture: Karleen Minney

It will be no surprise to Scott Morrison that his handling of the bushfires was a major political setback, and the latest set of polling only confirms the extent. The question will be whether the mud sticks.

Morrison sailed through last year's election on a high, with a likeability rating of 5.1, not great by historic standards, but higher than any party leader since Labor's Kevin Rudd after winning the 2007 election.

He has now slumped to the lowest of any leader since Andrew Peacock in 1990, and below the record low that Bill Shorten put on the scoreboard as Labor leader last year. Shorten had a dismal likeability rating of 3.97 in the ANU Election Study; Morrison has now scored 3.92 in a January poll by the ANU's Centre for Social Research.

It was personal. Half the people polled were asked to think about the performance of Scott Morrison when judging how good or bad a job the government had done on the bush fires; the other half was told to think about the performance of the government. You guessed it. When prompted by reference to Morrison, 64 per cent said the government had done a bad or very bad job, compared with 59 per cent when thinking about the government more broadly.

Anthony Albanese moved up in popularity, from 4.87 in June to 5.04 now - the highest of any Labor leader since Kevin Rudd at his peak in 2007, and higher than Mark Latham and Paul Keating.

The same message came from the Newspoll, which showed Labor overtaking the Coalition in the preferred prime minister ranks in January, for the first time since a brief hit from the Liberal leadership turmoil in August 2018. In September last year, 50 per cent of voters preferred Morrison for prime minister, against Anthony Albanese's 31 per cent, according to Newspoll. By January, Albanese was on 43 per cent and Morrison 39. Worse, Morrison's satisfaction rating went through the floor.

"I've got a thick skin," Morrison said on Monday when asked about criticism of him at the bush fire relief concert. "And I understand that over the period of the summer, you know, that people felt really raw about things ... My response is just to do things and get things done."….

But to date, Morrison has essentially failed to present any kind of ambitious reform agenda or coherent plan. As a result his Prime Ministership has turned into an endless round of inadequate and misguided responses to disaster, crisis and scandal…...

In the ANU survey just after the election last year, 45 per cent of people said the government should allow new coal mines; now only 37 per cent think so. As banks and big investors stop lending to thermal coal and turn their attention also to reducing investments in oil and gas, Morrison needs to align himself with the inevitable and start leading on new ideas for regional and remote communities.

He needs a better idea than the only one he seems to have rattling around in the top drawer - throwing more cash at the regions. Cash is handy, but it is not a reason for confidence or hope.

It appears that almost singlehandedly Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison may have sunk his own government.

"Around 77.8 per cent of the population reported indirect exposure, by having a friend or family member that had property damage; friend/family that had property threatened; had their travel/holiday plans affected; were exposed to the physical effects of smoke; or felt anxious or worried. This equates to around 15.4 million adults." ["Exposure and the impact on attitudes of the 2019-20 Australian Bushfires" 2020]

In January 2020 the ANU Centre for Social Research and Methods and the Social Research Centre collected data from more than three thousand Australian adults from the probability sample ‘Life in Australia’ about their exposure to the bushfires that occurred across the spring and summer of late 2019 and into early 2020. 

Researchers also asked about a range of attitudes towards the environment, institutions, and political issues. 

Data from the January 2020 ANU poll was able to be linked to previous polls at the individual level.

This is the result........

Biddle, N, Edwards, B, Herz, D & Makkai, T, (2020) "Exposure and the impact on attitudes of the 2019-20 Australian Bushfires":

Abstract 

The bushfires that occurred over the 2019/20 Australian spring and summer were unprecedented in scale and wide in their geographic impact. 

Between 20 January and 3 February 2020, the ANU Centre for Social Research and Methods and the Social Research Centre collected data from more than three thousand Australian adults about their exposure to the bushfires, as well as a range of other attitudes and beliefs. 

We estimate that the vast majority of Australians (78.6 per cent) were impacted in one way or another either directly, through their family/friends, or through the physical effects of smoke. 

Furthermore, we estimate that around 2.9 million adult Australians had their property damaged, their property threatened, or had to be evacuated. 

This is the first estimate of self-reported impacts on that scale from a nationally representative, probability-based survey. 

Our survey findings also show that subjective wellbeing amongst the Australian population has declined since the start of spring 2019, people are less satisfied with the direction of the country, and have less confidence in the Federal Government. 

People are more likely, however, to think that the environment and climate change are issues and a potential threat to them, with a significant decline in the proportion of people who support new coal mines. 

By linking individuals through time, we are also able to show that some of these changes are attributable to exposure to the bushfires.

DOCUMENT Exposure_and_impact_on_attitudes_of_the_2019-20_Australian_Bushfires_publication.pdf (PDF, 685.59 KB):


General satisfaction with life before and after the bushfire season 

In the October 2019 ANUpoll 65.2 per centsaid they were either satisfied or very satisfied with the way the country is heading. By January 2020 this had declined to 59.5 per cent of adult Australians. 

Over the same period, there was a small (but significant) average decline in life satisfaction from 7.05 (on a scale from 0 to 10) to 6.9. 

Levels of confidence in institutions 

Confidence in the federal government declined by 10.9 percentage points from October 2019 to 27.3 per cent by January 2020. 

Confidence in other institutions was quite stable over the period, and higher than for the Federal Government. In January 2020: 

• 48.8 per cent of the population had confidence in the public service (52.1 per cent in October 2019); 

• 73.8 per cent had confidence in the police (75.8 per cent in October 2019); 

• 40.4 per cent had confidence in the State/Territory Government where they lived (not asked in 2019); and 

• 93.0 per cent reported confidence in organisations responsible for firefighting in regional or rural areas (not asked in 2019). 

Voting patterns between October 2019 and January 2020 

The per cent of people who said they would vote for the Coalition if an election was held that day declined from 40.4 per cent in October 2019 to 34.8 per cent in January 2020. 

The largest relative increase (8.8 per cent to 10.5 per cent) was for those who would vote for a party other than the Coalition, Labor, or the Greens. 

Views on party leaders between June 2019 and January 2020 

Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s average rating declined from 5.25 to 3.92 out of 10. 

Leader of the Opposition Anthony Albanese’s average rating increased from 4.87 to 5.04. 

Changes in attitudes towards the environment 

49.7 per cent of people reported aspects of the environment as the most important issue or second most important issue facing Australia in January 2020 compared to 41.5 per cent in October 2019. 

Reporting fires, natural disasters or extreme weather as the most or second most important issue were close to non-existent in October 2019. This increased to 10.2 percent by January 2020. 

Concern about most specific issues increased from 2008 to January 2020, with the greatest increase for: 

• loss of native vegetation or animal species or biodiversity (a 13 percentage point increase); 

• drought and drying (a 9 percentage point increase). 

Support for new coal mines have declined since the May 2019 election. In June 2019 45.3 per cent said yes to the question ‘In your opinion, should the Government allow the opening of news coal mines?’. This had declined to 37.0 per cent in January 2020.

Capital cities versus the rest 

There is majority support by residents in both capital and those living outside of capital cities that global warming is very serious, and that global warming will be a threat to them. These views are more strongly held by capital city residents. 

Only 35.6 per cent of capital and 40.1 per cent of non-capital city residents support new coal mines and there is no statistically significant difference in views between the two. 

Did exposure to the bushfires affect changes in satisfaction, confidence or voting intentions? 

Direct or indirect exposure to bushfires did not statistically affect changes in life satisfaction between October and January. 

Indirect exposure to the bushfires affected levels of confidence in government and satisfaction with the direction of the country. Those exposed reported greater declines in both confidence and satisfaction. 

Although there was no significant direct affect from the bushfires on reporting a change in voting intention, exposure to the bushfires was associated with a significant decline in the likeability of Prime Minister Scott Morrison......

It appears that almost singlehandedly Australian Prime Minister & Liberal MP for Cook Scott John Morrison - aka #ScottyFromMarketing - may have sunk his own government.