Labor has won the state general election of 25 March 2923 and will form government for the term of the 58th NSW Parliament

 

The mainstream media hyped 'close' NSW state general election that wasn't.....

At approx. 7:55pm on Saturday 25 March 2023 just one hour and twenty-five minutes into the official NSW Electoral Commission count of est. 2,669,688 formal ballot papers on the night and with less than 13 per cent of all votes counted, elections analyst Antony Green called the general election for the Australian Labor Party (NSW Division) on the national public broadcaster, the ABC. 

Labor MLA for Kogarah, Christopher John "Chris" Minns is now 47th Premier-elect of New South Wales and is expected to lead a government of between 47 to 50 members sitting in the 93 member Legislative Assembly. 

At around 10:20pm on the night the Liberal MP for Epping and current Premier Dominic Francis "Dom" Perrottet conceded defeat on behalf of the Coalition, being the Liberal Party of Australia (NSW Division) and National Party of Australia (NSW Division). Mr. Perrottet had been the state premier for less than 18 months.

The official ballot paper count continues on Monday 27 March and details can be found at 

https://elections.nsw.gov.au/elections/state-government-elections/2023-state-general-election.  

The initial formal first preference ballot count on the night of 25 March indicates that Labor's Janelle Saffin has retained the seat of Lismore.  Nationals' Geoff Provest is expected to retain Tweed and The Green's Tamara Smith is also expected to retain Ballina, with Nationals' Richie Williamson is expected to gain Clarence after retirement of the previous incumbent, the National's Chris Gulaptis.

To recap: the Labor Party now governs at federal level and in every state & territory across Australia, with the exception of Tasmania where the Liberal Party still governs.

IMAGE: via @MColvinMcKenzie

A word about the forthcoming NSW State Election.....

Unfortunately the following newspaper clipping and video are less cynically humorous than they are chillingly close to the truth.

A NSW Upper House mock 'voting guide' to those political parties which might turn up on your 25 March 2023 NSW state election ballot papers:

The Echo, Handy voting guide for the pragmatic progressive

15 March 2023

Click on image to enlarge

 

The NSW Government has made a tourism ad ahead of the coming election, and it’s surprisingly honest and informative! #NSWVotes

👉 We're on Patreon https://t.co/e6YAu8LFeT pic.twitter.com/GzlUj82cfM

— theJuiceMedia (@thejuicemedia) March 16, 2023

Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says the latest Roy Morgan Poll into NSW voting intention shows the election is still ‘up for grabs’ just over a month before 25 March election day

 

Roy Morgan Research, media release, excerpt, 21 February 2023:

Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says the latest Roy Morgan Poll into NSW voting intention shows the election is still ‘up for grabs’ just over a month before election day in late March with the ALP holding a narrow two-party preferred lead over the Liberal-National Coalition:

“The latest Roy Morgan Poll of NSW voting intention shows the ALP on 52% narrowly ahead of the Liberal-National Coalition on 48% on a two-party preferred basis. This result is a reverse of the 2019 New South Wales election when the L-NP won a majority of 48 seats in the 93 seat lower house.

“The primary voting intention shows an almost three way split between the Coalition on 35% ahead of the ALP on 32.5% and another 32.5% supporting other parties and independents. This result is very similar to last year’s Federal Election when the ALP won Government despite receiving only 32.6% of the primary vote, even less than the L-NP on 35.7%.

“The low primary vote for the major parties increases the importance of preferences from minor parties and independents. Around half of the support for this group is flowing to two minor parties on either side of politics – the left-wing Greens on 9.5% and right-wing One Nation on 6.5%.

“Greens support traditionally flows strongly to the ALP via preferences at a rate of around 85% while One Nation support flows via preferences at a rate of around 65% to the Coalition. However, the optional preferential voting (OPV) used in NSW means voters need not direct their preferences to any party beyond their first choice.

“The OPV system allows voters to simply number their ballot paper with a ‘1’ for their preferred candidate to register a valid vote. Analysis of prior NSW State elections shows around 50% of voters direct preferences to exhaustion while the other 50% of voters don’t.

“The OPV system therefore makes it harder for parties finishing second, or even third, in the primary vote to overtake the leading party on preferences – favouring the party with the highest primary vote. Not since the 1995 NSW State election has a party won government despite receiving a lower primary vote.

“One interesting result from this month’s voting intention results in NSW is that support for One Nation increased 2% points to 6.5% - the highest level of support for the party since the 1999 NSW State Election over 20 years ago when the party scored 7.5% of the vote.

“One reason for the rise in support for One Nation may have been the recruitment of former Labour MP Tania Mihailuk during January. Mihailuk has represented the seat of Bankstown in the western suburbs since 2011 before resigning from the ALP in 2022 and joining One Nation in mid-January.

“Upon joining One Nation Mihailuk became the first One Nation MP to represent a lower house seat in the NSW Parliament and will run for the Legislative Council in second place behind NSW One Nation Leader Mark Latham – a former Federal ALP Leader.”

And the news just keeps getting worse for the NSW Perrottet Government five weeks out from the 25 March 2023 state election

 

The Sydney Morning Herald, 17 February 2023:

The NSW government is in disarray just five weeks from the state election as one of Premier Dominic Perrottet’s most senior ministers and closest confidants was forced to quit cabinet after it emerged he owned shares in the tolling company that controls most of Sydney’s motorways.

The premier was also forced to reveal on Friday that one of his parliamentary secretaries had stood down amid a scandal involving intimate photos he shared.

Finance minister and leader of the government in the Legislative Council Damien Tudehope quit just hours after he confirmed he held shares in Transurban, which owns the majority of tolling concessions across Sydney, including WestConnex, NorthConnex and the M2.

Perrottet sought legal advice on Friday afternoon over whether Tudehope “knowingly breached” any disclosure rules under the ministerial code of conduct.

In a statement late on Friday, Perrottet confirmed the advice from the Department of Premier and Cabinet had “cleared Damien” however Tudehope had decided to resign from cabinet…..

Upper House MLC Peter Poulos resigned on Friday from his secretary role amid internal anger after an admission he shared explicit images of Hawkesbury MP Robyn Preston in the lead-up to a bitter preselection battle. Poulos has apologised to Preston, who modelled as a Penthouse “pet” in the 1980s.

In a major embarrassment for Perrottet, Tudehope on Friday confirmed he held shares in tolling giant Transurban, which owns the majority of tolling concessions across Sydney, including the WestConnex motorway, NorthConnex and the M2.

Tudehope said he had unknowingly held the shares in a family superannuation fund, but insisted he gave a “printout of the assets” contained within that fund to both Perrottet and former premier Gladys Berejiklian.

He said the Transurban shares were sold overnight, and conceded they had risen in value considerably since he was appointed minister in 2019. Tudehope said he would donate to charity any profit he made, which he expected to be about $6000.

Tudehope said he did not recuse himself from cabinet over discussions involving Transurban because he did not know he owned the shares as the superannuation fund was managed by a fund manager…..

[my yellow highlighting]

Financial Review, 17 February 2023:

Transurban recently reported record half-year earnings of $1.66 billion, boosted by some $835 million in tolls collected from Sydney drivers over the course of the past six months.

Mr Tudehope was a cabinet minister during the Berejiklian government’s decision to sell the WestConnex toll road to Transurban for $11 billion in 2021. More recently, he took part in a number of cabinet decisions to provide toll relief to NSW drivers.

Earlier, he denied being “involved in any discussions relating to WestConnex” and claimed he “was not on the relevant committee or relevant cabinet meetings”.

“The first thing is whether there was a significant impact, and whether I knowingly breached the code of conduct, and I have to say, I didn’t know that I held those shares at the time that I participated in policy decisions relating to Transurban,” he said.

It should be noted that Liberal MLC Damian Francis Tudehope has been a Member of the Legislative Council since 23 March 2019 having previously been a Member of the Legislative Assembly from 28 March 2015 to 1 March 2019.

He had been NSW Minister for Finance as well as Minister for Employee Relations since 21 December 2021, having been appointed to both ministries by Premier Perrottet. 

On 21 December he also became Leader of the Government in the Legislative Council and Vice-President of the Executive Council.

Damian Tudehope is reported as resigning as NSW Minister for Finance, Minister for Employee Relations and Leader of the Government in the Legislative Council on Friday 17 February 2023. Presumably he also resigned from the Executive Council.

Tudehope had previously been finance & small business minister during the Berejiklian Government years from 2 April 2019 to 21 December 2021.

Before entering parliament he practiced as a solicitor.

Interestingly, Damian Tudehope had been Chair of the Committee on the Independent Commission Against Corruption from 3 June 2015 to 22 February 2019 and, a Member of the Standing Committee on Parliamentary Privilege and Ethics from 29 March 2017 to 22 February 2019. Committee terms which should have seen him well acquainted with the ins and outs of of issues such as pecuniary interests and conflicts of interest.

According to ABC News on 17 February 2023; ...like Mr Perrottet, [Damien Tudehope] has links to the the Catholic Church's conservative Opus Dei organisation. 

It appears the families may know each other well. The Linkedin entry of the premier’s younger brother Jean-Claude Perrottet shows that he was an Electoral Officer for Damian Tudehope MP from March 2018 to March and 2019 and Policy Advisor for Damian Tudehope MLC Minister for Finance and Small Business.

The “family superannuation fund” to which Mr. Tudehope was referring is possibly a self-managed superannuation fund titled Claiyear Pty Limited ATF The Tudehope Superannuation Fund (est.1998) or perhaps even Imtaga Pty Limited ATF Tudehope Family Trust (est.1985), as set out in his Disclosures By Members Of The Legislative Council form dated 31 March 2021. Although the latter registered company was missing from his disclosure of pecuniary interest form signed on 20 September 2022.

ASX Graph of Transurban Group (TCL) Share Price & Dividends issued 14 March 1996 to 17 February 2023

https://www2.asx.com.au/markets/company/tcl

This graph shows 20 dividend issues to shareholders over a 10 year period. Not a shareholding one would normally expect to be overlooked in the investment portfolio of any politician.

As a member of the NSW Upper House Damian Tudehope  does not stand for re-election until his term of service expires at the end of the 58th Parliament (05 Mar 2027).

It is not outside the bounds of possibility that if the Perrottet Government is re-elected on 25 March 2023, Damian Tudehope will be restored by Premier Perrottet to a Cabinet-level ministry or ministries and a place on the Executive Council. 

In fact as recently as last Saturday, Premier Perrottet left the door open to reinstating Tudehope after 25 May; "Mr Perrottet, who described Mr Tudehope as a man of "the highest integrity and honesty", was quizzed on Saturday about whether he would consider making him a minister again post March 25. "I'll make those decisions in due course," the Premier told reporters."

The last time Damian Tudehope did Dominic Perrottet a favour — by vacating his Lower House seat in order for Perrottet to contest the 2019 election in a preferred safe seat — he was amply rewarded. I have a strong suspicion that both men understand that he will be similarly favoured this time around.

UPDATE

In an effort to walk back just one of the Premier's errors of judgement the NSW Liberal Party has acted.....

The Sydney Morning Herald, 19 February 2023:

"This afternoon, the State Director, in consultation with the State President, exercised campaign powers to suspend Peter Poulos from the NSW Division for a period of 6 months," a spokesperson for the Liberal Party said in a statement.

This in no way stops Poulos standing as a nominal Independent at the 25 March state election. Nor does preclude him changing from Independent MLC back to Liberal MLC in 2024 should he be re-elected in 33 days time.

BACKGROUND

North Coast Voices

Friday, 17 February 2023

And the rolling political disasters continue to arrive on NSW Premier Perrottet's doorstep

Lismore City and Tweed Shire among 15 regional councils making regional housing a key election issue in 2023

Western Advocate, 16 February 2023, p.3:

An alliance representing 15 regional cities from across the state - including Bathurst - is calling for bipartisan support for measures to increase housing stock amidst a regional rental crisis and skills shortage.

Regional Cities NSW (RCNSW) says the lack of available housing in regional towns across NSW is a "risk to regional growth" and are calling for both the Liberal party and Labor party to commit to doing more to address the housing shortage.

"Regional living is well and truly on the agenda, however the lack of available housing is impacting people's ability to move to the regions," said Dubbo Regional Council mayor Matthew Dickerson, chair of RCNSW.

"Housing availability has been severely impacted by numerous natural disasters across our state as well as major infrastructure projects requiring temporary accommodation."

As well as Dubbo, RCNSW represents Albury, Queenbeyan, Coffs Harbour, Griffith, Goulburn, Maitland, Bathurst, Broken Hill, Wagga Wagga, Orange, Armidale, Lismore, Tweed Heads and Tamworth.

The alliance aims to grow regional cities in NSW through increased investment that will build "productive, liveable and connected regions". One of the main challenges impeding growth, says RCNSW, is a shortage of suitable housing.

"Housing availability and affordability are major issues for regional cities resulting from recent population increases," said Cr Dickerson.

"Other critical areas requiring the support of the state government include having a supply of skilled workers to match demand, building road and rail connectivity between Sydney and regional cities and building the strength of the Port of Newcastle."

According to data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, between 2011 and 2022, regional NSW's population grew by 224,5001 - the equivalent to creating a new regional city the size of Bathurst every two years……

[my yellow highlighting]

BACKGROUND

On 14 February 2023 Regional Cities NSW (RCNSW) announced regional housing as a key election issue in the forthcoming 25 March state election.

The Regional Cities New South Wales Members are;

• Tamworth Regional Council;

• Albury City Council;

• Queanbeyan-Palerang Council;

• Coffs Harbour City Council;

• Griffith City Council;

• Maitland City Council;

• Bathurst Regional Council;

• Wagga Wagga City Council;

• Orange City Council;

• Armidale Regional Council;

• Dubbo Regional Council;

• Lismore City Council;

• Broken Hill City Council;

• Goulburn Mulwaree Council; and

• Tweed Shire Council.

On 28 March 2011 the O'Farrell Coalition Government came to power in New South Wales.

It was followed in April 2014 by the Baird Coalition Government, then in January 2017 by the Berejiklian Coalition Government and lastly, in October 2021 by the current Perrottet Coalition Government.

If anything an already dire social housing situation has been made worse since Dominic Perrottet & Co have held the reigns of state government.

Yahoo! News, 4 January 2023:

The waiting list of people needing social housing in NSW has increased for the first time since 2016, with about 1000 more people in line for a home.

As of June 2022, there were 51,031 approved for social housing and waiting for a property to become available, compared to 49,928 the year before.

The number has steadily decreased since 2016 when the figure hit 59,907. Before this it had varied between about 55,000 and 60,000 since 2012. [my yellow highlighting]

In March 2022 the mainstream media was reporting that a surge in regional rental prices – in part driven by tree changes during coronavirus lockdowns – as well as stagnant wage growth had created a housing affordability crisis which was exacerbated by a fall in rental housing stock in Northern NSW due to widespread flooding.

Rental stress is experienced by more than 60 per cent of renters living in the regional NSW electorates – of Page, Cowper and Lyne – along the northern NSW coast. Source: Everybody's Home. IMAGE: news.com.au, 21 March 2022

The following month The Guardian reported on 16 April 2022:

The New South Wales government has sold off $3bn worth of social housing during its decade in power, while failing to meet its own targets for new properties.

New figures released through parliament this week show that since it was first elected in 2011, the Coalition has sold off 4,205 social housing properties across the state.

The sales have added about $3.5bn to the government’s coffers over the same period.

But while the government said all of those funds were used to prove “more, and better” social housing stock, data for new social housing constructions reveal the government has fallen well behind its own targets for new dwellings.

In 2016, the Coalition pledged to build 23,000 new social housing dwellings in the next decade as part of its Future Directions housing strategy. It committed to funding new social housing construction through the $22bn Communities Plus program.

But eight years on, with more than 50,000 people on the social housing wait list in the state, the Communities Plus program has achieved only 10% of that goal.

[my yellow highlighting]

And the rolling political disasters continue to arrive on NSW Premier Perrottet's doorstep

 

NSW Premier & Liberal MP for Epping Dominic Francis Perrottet has found that February 2023 is not a kind month for election campaigning.

First, the questions concerning the yet to be revealed NSW Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC) report into the actions of the then NSW Premier & Liberal MLA for Willoughby, Gladys Berejiklian, will not go away on social media.

Then he was forced to refer an Audit Office of New South Wales report on the misapplication of 2019 bushfire funding grants by the office of former Deputy Premier & Nationals MLA for Monaro John Barilaro to ICAC for its consideration.

That was quickly followed by news that five prominent member of the NSW Liberal Party, including two of his brothers, were evading notification of their required attendance at a NSW Legislative Council Inquiry into Allegations of impropriety against agents of the Hills Shire Council and property developers in the region. Forcing the Legislative Council Portfolio Committee No. 7 – Planning and Environment to employ process servers to delivers the five summons.

And now this…...

The premier has condemned the actions of one of his MPs who's circulated pornographic images of women in parliament. Upper house Liberal @PeterPoulosMLC has admitted to spreading naked photos of the MP as part of a political 'get square'. https://t.co/OF81oZXOfr #7NEWS pic.twitter.com/2XWldYBzxv

— 7NEWS Sydney (@7NewsSydney) February 14, 2023

Current Parliamentary Secretary for Wollongong and the Illawarra & Liberal MLC Peter Poulos is an unelected member of NSW Upper House, having been parachuted in as replacement after John Ajaka resigned in 2021. Poulos' term of service expires during the 57th Parliament on 3 March 2023. Given the nature of his admitted wrongdoing Premier Dominic Perrottet needs to kick him out of the Liberal Party right now. Matt Kean and others need to insist that this happens.

Sandwiched in between these glaring political sins, there was also a report by The Australia Institute, which in some detail pointed out that in the Baird-Berejiklian-Perrottet years of  back-to-back Coalition governments, the only people who had a fair chance of a long average life expectancy in New South Wales were those living in the Greater Sydney metropolitan area. The rest of us running the risk of having on average between 2.2 and 5.4 years less in our lifespans – depending on exactly where in remote and regional NSW we live.

BACKGROUND

ABC News:

• Wednesday, 11 January 2023

  Release of ICAC report on Daryl Maguire, Gladys Berejiklian delayed

Twitter:

• Friday, 10 February 2023

Why is it taking so many years for NSW ICAC to release its findings on Gladys & her former boyfriend Darryl when the #RobodebtRC has confirmed it should have its findings ready, for obviously a much bigger scandal, only approx. 1 month after hearings end? 🤔

— stranger (@strangerous10) February 10, 2023

North Coast Voices:

• Tuesday, 14 February 2023

  Only 39 days remaining until the NSW state election and Liberal MP for Epping & Premier Dominic Perrottet's troubles are multiplying.

• Wednesday, 15 February 2023

  NSW State of Play 2023: governments being 'city-centric' has consequences that follow remote & outer regional populations to their graves

• Thursday, 16 February 2023

  Has the NSW Premier's brother Charles Perrottet followed property developer Jean Nassif's example and left the country or has he otherwise made himself 'unavailable'?

Only 39 days remaining until the NSW state election and Liberal MP for Epping & Premier Dominic Perrottet's troubles are multiplying.

 

Perrottet's first problem of the month....

Audit Office of New South Wales, Bushfire recovery grants: Environment Industry Compliance Internal controls and governance Management and administration Service delivery, 2 February 2023, excerpts from report highlights.

What the report is about

The Bushfire Local Economic Recovery (BLER) program was created after the 2019–20 bushfires, and commits $541.8 million to bushfire affected areas in New South Wales. It is co-funded by the Commonwealth and NSW governments.

This audit assessed how effectively the Department of Regional NSW (the department) and Resilience NSW administered rounds one and two of the BLER program….

What we found

The Department of Regional NSW did not effectively administer the Fast-Tracked stream of the BLER.

The administration process lacked integrity, given it did not have sufficiently detailed guidelines and the assessment process for projects lacked transparency and consistency.

At the request of the Deputy Premier's office, a $1 million threshold was applied, below which projects were not approved for funding….

This threshold resulted in a number of shortlisted projects in areas highly impacted by the bushfires being excluded, including all shortlisted projects located in Labor Party-held electorates….. [my yellow highlighting]

The Sydney Morning Herald, 3 February 2023:

The Perrottet government has handed the corruption watchdog a copy of a scathing investigation which found an intervention by the office of the then-deputy premier John Barilaro diverted funding for a $100 million bushfire recovery program away from Labor-held electorates.

The Department of Premier and Cabinet provided the report exposing serious transparency failures to the Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC) on Friday morning, sidestepping NSW Labor leader Chris Minns who had earlier threatened to do the same.

A damning report by the auditor-general released on Thursday revealed that instead of following guidelines, the office of the then-NSW Nationals leader devised their own rules to fast-track money to areas hit by the 2019 Black Summer catastrophe – a switch that meant 96 per cent of projects funded were in Coalition-held seats.

Minns issued the former deputy premier a 24-hour ultimatum to explain the reasons behind the 2021 decision or have the matter referred to ICAC by Labor. The Labor leader’s office was drafting a letter to the ICAC on Friday afternoon…..

Perrottet's latest political headache....

IMAGE: ABC News, 11 February 2023

Jean-Claude Perrottet and Charles Perrottet (pictured) were called to appear before NSW Legislative Council Portfolio Committee No. 7 – Planning and Environment inquiry into "Allegations of impropriety against agents of the Hills Shire Council and property developers in the region".

Allegations of impropriety centre around a June 2022 statement made under parliamentary privilege by another Liberal MLA, Ray Williams, that senior members of the party & state executive received payment from a property developer to facilitate the selection of Liberal candidates at the December 2022 local government election who if elected would hold a favourable view of his development applications.

 

However, along with senior office holder in NSW Liberal Party and lobbyist Christian Ellis, Councillor Virginia Ellis (Lib) and property developer Jean Nassif, the Perrottet brothers (both NSW Liberal Party members) have failed to indicate attendance at the inquiry or acknowledge official summons.

While former The Hills Shire councillor Alan Haselden (Lib) appears to have walked back his previously expressed concerns.

Chair of Portfolio Committee No. 7 stated in an official 11 February media release: "This appears to be a calculated and coordinated attempt to avoid scrutiny by the NSW Parliament. The committee is extremely concerned by this behaviour and calls on these individuals to cooperate with the inquiry."

As the Inquiry is due to report to the NSW Parliament no later than 2 March 2023, just 23 days before the state election, in my opinion there is a strong suspicion that any failure of these persons to give evidence would possibly be part of a deliberate effort to forestall that report to Parliament.

Not a good look for the Premier.

Show Us The Money, Perrottet!

 

Fool us once, shame on you; fool us twice, shame on us. Try to fool us a third time, then your vote count drops on Saturday 25 March 2023.

Clarence Valley Independent, 1 February 2023, excerpt:

The unveiling of the master plan for the $264 million redevelopment of Grafton Base Hospital (GBH) has been described by Des Harvey of the Grafton Base Hospital Community Committee (GBHCC) as a miniscule step forward.

“The Minister and others might think it’s a major step, but in our opinion, there is still no funding other than just a mention of funding,” he said.

“There is a promise of $263.8 million, but that has been around for too many years.

“We’ve also had a promise that construction will commence before March 2023, and we know that’s not going to happen.

“We’re still talking about planning.

“In my opinion, and that of many people I speak to in the community, the planning really was completed back in 2015, and that’s the reason that the government was able to come up with a figure of $263.8 million, so they knew specifically how many nails, screws and alike were involved in the job…..

 “But as far as I can see, there is no money in the budget for it, and until there is money in the budget, nothing happens,” he recalled.