Commonwealth Government "COVID-19 Response Inquiry Report" released on Tuesday, 29 October 2024.

Then Australian prime minister & Liberal MP for Cook Scott John Morrison, his ministers and the 'National Cabinet' he created at the start of the SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 global pandemic fared reasonably well in the Commonwealth Government "COVID-19 Response Inquiry Report" released on Tuesday, 29 October 2024.

That is, fared reasonably well in comparison to other countries. The general public and other interested parties appear to have expressed other opinions to the Inquiry and the inquiry report itself is not without pointed criticisms.

"The fear in the community, and wider impacts on children and young people, could have been mitigated through more proportionate decisions based on a balanced approach that used evidence on the risk of viral spread in school settings and the effectiveness of in-school measures. Earlier communication and greater transparency around decisions, and improved engagement with experts and advocates to feed into government decision-making, would also have minimised the long-term harm caused by the suspension of face-to-face learning.

There was a strong sense that people with disability were not a priority, despite many being at a higher risk from COVID-19 infection and pandemic-associated disruptions to their usual supports. Poor planning, inadequate communications and a lack of transparency around prioritisation decisions in the vaccine rollout exacerbated a sense of being forgotten by government......

The initial strengthening of trust in government did not continue for the duration of the pandemic response. By the second year, restrictions on personal freedoms were less accepted across Australia as outbreaks tended to be short lived and infection rates remained low. The decrease in levels of trust reflects the complexity of the relationship between trust and engagement – trust is vital to ensuring adherence to life-saving restrictions, but those same restrictions could risk increasing distrust the more effective they are and the longer they are in place.

The Inquiry heard that there were many reasons for the decrease in trust. These varied within and across jurisdictions, but common drivers included concerns about the lack of transparency in and supporting evidence for decision-making, poor communication, the stringency and duration of restrictions, the implementation of mandated measures, access to vaccines and inconsistencies in state and territory responses.

During the pandemic, the advice underpinning the imposition or extension of control measures and the evidence that the measures were working or set at the right level were rarely made public. This fed the perception that the government did not trust the public to understand or interpret the information correctly and contributed to the decrease in trust....."

["Commonwealth COVID-19 Response Inquiry Summary", 29 Oct 2024, pp. 16, 39]

Office of Prime Minister & Cabinet, 29 October 2024:

On 21 September 2023, the Prime Minister the Hon Anthony Albanese MP announced an independent inquiry into Australia’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The inquiry reviewed the Commonwealth Government’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic to identify lessons learned to improve Australia’s preparedness for future pandemics.

The report includes nine guiding recommendations that are aligned with nine pillars of a successful pandemic response. The report identifies 19 immediate actions for the next 12-18 months, and a further seven medium-term actions prior to the next national health emergency.

Commonwealth Government "COVID-19 Response Inquiry Report" (full report DOCX 11.03 MB) at

https://www.pmc.gov.au/sites/default/files/resource/download/covid-19-response-inquiry-report.docx

"COVID-19 Response Inquiry Summary: Lessons for the Next Crisis", released 29 October 2024 at

https://www.pmc.gov.au/sites/default/files/resource/download/covid-response-inquiry-summary.pdf

Conclusion (at page 61)

Almost five years since the COVID-19 pandemic broke out, for most Australians there is a collective desire to move on and forget what was an immensely difficult period. There is undoubtedly much to forget, but there is also much to be proud of as a nation.

Our hope is that this Inquiry will ensure that the immense body of work undertaken by individuals, community organisations, businesses, universities and research organisations, and government will be recognised into the future. There is also, importantly, much to learn from our collective experiences.

Our objective in undertaking this Inquiry was to document what worked and what could be done better for a future crisis, and to ensure that the lessons are learned so that we are better prepared for the next pandemic. With individuals and communities less prepared to change their behaviour we will not be able to simply rely on what worked during COVID-19, and must learn the lessons to ensure a future response is effective.

We heard from many individuals across government and in the community about the toll that the pandemic response had taken. People worked beyond normal limits, and many of the public health professionals, frontline community service and health staff, political leaders, health experts and public servants we relied on to get through the pandemic are no longer in their positions. This poses risks to our resilience to face another crisis.

Trust has also been eroded, and many of the measures taken during COVID-19 are unlikely to be accepted by the population again. That means there is a job to be done to rebuild trust, and we must plan a response based on the Australia we are today, not the Australia we were before the pandemic.

The CDC will be an important part of rebuilding that trust and strengthening resilience and preparedness, providing national coordination to gather evidence necessary to undertake risk assessments that can guide the proportionality of public health responses in future crises. However, as we continue to face more complex and concurrent crises in the years ahead, there is a need to build broader resilience in our systems.

We have focused our priority actions on building that resilience now, but it will need to be maintained over time. We cannot predict when the next global health crisis will occur – it may occur at any time – in 12 months, in a decade or beyond our lifetime – but human history tells us that it will occur, and it will once again test us in ways that are hard to imagine. Acting today will ensure in the future we are better prepared, benefiting from our learnings of what worked well and what didn’t during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Ms Robyn Kruk AO, Chair

Professor Catherine Bennett

Dr Angela Jackson

"Things we need to do to get ready for the next pandemic" at

https://www.pmc.gov.au/sites/default/files/resource/download/easy-read-recs-actions.pdf

COVID-19 2024: I suspect there has long been a debate in government & public health sectors from which the Australian public in large measure appears to have been excluded

How the road to widespread abandonment of effective communicable disease control began.

In January 2020 the SARS-CoV-2 virus, commonly known as COVID-19, entered Australia and by 7 April 2020 there were 5,844 confirmed COVID-19 cases across the country, with 44 deaths [North Coast Voices, COVID-19 confirmed cases count for Australia, states and territories from 29 March 2020]. 

Infection numbers continued to rise and as of 29 July 2021 the national total confirmed infection number stood at 33,732 - with 2,857 mostly locally acquired active cases - and the death toll from COVID-19 was listed as 920 people with the highest number of deaths occurring in the 80-89 year age group.

Eight days later on 6 August 2021 the Sydney Morning Herald reported:

NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian said the state must learn to live with COVID-19 as the number of people in hospital with the virus doubled within a week and the nation’s chief medical officer called for a circuit-breaker to halt the spread across Sydney.

As NSW reported a record 291 new cases on Friday, Chief Medical Officer Paul Kelly said low vaccination rates, non-compliance and the speed of diagnosis highlighted the need to reconsider the state’s strategy.

On 23 August 2021 then Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison announced the 'national plan to live with COVID'

Prime minister Scott Morrison has said Australia must 'learn to live with' Covid-19. 'Once you get to 70% of your eligible population being vaccinated, and 80% ... the plan sets out we have to move forward'. Morrison said once those vaccine targets are hit, it is not about case numbers any more and people need to change their mindsets. 'Because if not at 70% and 80% then when? Then when?,' he said. 'This can not go on forever, this is not a sustainable way to live in this country,' Morrison said.

Needless to say by 31 December 2021 'living with COVID' à la Gladys and Scott saw the national confirmed COVID-19 infection numbers grow to 395,504 men, women and children with 137,752 mostly locally acquired active infections and, 2,239 deaths.

For it seemed that 'living with COVID' might have been Morrison's coded phrase for forced herd immunity and, like many of Morrison's schemes this one doesn't really appear to be working that well - unless the intention was to abandon the old, sick or vulnerable to this disease.

So this is where we are at today.....

 

In February 2024, as part of its fragmented public reporting of COVID-19 infection in the state, NSW Health announced that from 1 January 2024 to 3 February 2024 a total of 17,140 people ranging from 0-4 years up to 90+ years tested positive to COVID-19 via a PCR test, a total of 523 of the people were local residents in the Northern NSW Local Health District. With an est. 28% of the 17,170 requiring hospitalisation in the first week of January rising to 35% by 3 February. [NSW COVID-19 WEEKLY DATA OVERVIEW Epidemiological weeks 4 & 5, ending 03 February 2024]

Confirmed COVID-19 Infection by Age Groupings, 1 July 2023 to 3 February 2024

[ibid] Right click on image to enlarge

Note: The highest age group infection rate per 100,000 for the entire 6 months is a Bright Pink line representing those aged 90+ years and the second highest is Bright Blue representing those aged 65-89 years. While for the last four months and four days the third highest infection rate is represented by Red which indicates small children 0-4 years of age.

At state and national level total COVID-19 deaths have been increasingly hidden from the view of the general public in undifferentiated or hard to quantify mortality graphs and, on 20 October 2023 Australia’s Chief Medical Officer declared that COVID-19 is no longer a Communicable Disease Incident of National Significance (CDINS) following the end of winter in Australia.

On 8 February 2024 La Trobe University sent out a media release discussing a study led by Dr Joel Miller, Associate Professor of Mathematics and Statistics at La Trobe University, found that locking down the most at-risk group of people for a significant period, while simultaneously promoting infection in other groups in order to reach herd immunity, could be the best way to protect the high-risk groups. [my yellow highlighting]

However, increasing the exposure of one group to a disease would create an ethical dilemma and potentially result in the most disadvantaged groups in the community – usually with the least political power – becoming the highly-infected group.....

ABC News, 11 February 2024:

Steve Irons' older brother Jim was only supposed to be in hospital for a short while. A retired stockman from Maryborough, Queensland, Jim was diagnosed with leukaemia just before Christmas in 2022. He was flown to Brisbane for testing, then back to Maryborough Hospital, where doctors were putting together a plan for him to be treated at home.

But a patient in the room next door to Jim's had COVID, Steve says, and on January 14 last year, Jim tested positive too. "After four days, when the hospital told me he was no longer infectious, I took the risk and decided to visit him," says Steve, who'd flown up from Tasmania. "I sat with him for three days, playing country music, reading to him."

And then, on Saturday January 21, Jim Irons died of COVID-19 pneumonia and acute myeloid leukaemia, aged 79. It still distresses Steve to know his brother would have lived longer had he not caught a dangerous virus in a place he should have been safe. Once Jim had COVID, he says, hospital staff kept his door closed and donned masks and gowns when they came into his room. But hindsight is 20/20. "For me, to put him next door to a COVID patient caused his death," Steve says. "It didn't have to happen that way. If they'd had a separate COVID ward … with formal routes of entry, cleaning, controlled ventilation, Jim could still be with us now."

Twelve months later Australian hospitals have become a strange new battleground in the fight against COVID, with doctors and public health experts concerned that too many patients are catching the virus — and an alarming number are dying — as a result of inadequate infection control. Until recently, tools like contact tracing, testing, N95 respirators and good ventilation were mainstays of COVID management in healthcare settings. But in many hospitals they've been wound back or ditched in tandem with other community protections, putting patients and healthcare workers at risk and deterring others from seeking treatment.

Health departments insist the risk of catching COVID cannot be eliminated completely, and that hospitals maintain stringent measures to prevent infections and manage outbreaks. But senior healthcare workers in several states say vulnerable people — including transplant and oncology patients and others with compromised immune systems — are contracting COVID because even basic precautions are not being taken: a consequence, they say, of hospitals' failure to address airborne transmission, and the pervasive myth that COVID is "just a cold".

The 'Robodebt' of medicine

Of course, evidence clearly shows COVID is nothing like a cold, particularly for hospital patients who are at higher risk of severe illness and death. Shocking data released under Freedom of Information laws last year revealed 5,614 people were suspected to have caught COVID in Victorian public hospitals between 2020 and April 2023, with more than one in 10 confirmed or suspected to have died as a result of their infection. In Queensland, similar data shows an average of 13 people caught COVID in hospital every day in the 18 months to June last year, with one patient dying every two days.

"The data we are aware of indicates that there is a large problem here," says Associate Professor Suman Majumdar, chief health officer for COVID and health emergencies at the Burnet Institute. "The key policy aim in Australia is to protect the medically vulnerable and there is no more vulnerable group than people in our hospitals and aged care."

Whilst patients who catch COVID in hospital might be older and sicker, Dr Majumdar says, "this is a patient safety issue". "These are preventable infections and therefore preventable deaths and we need to take action to reduce them by setting targets, tracking progress and reporting transparently like we do for other hospital acquired infections."....

COVID-19 NSW 2023: Counting Dead People - Part 6

 

NSW Dept. of Health, @NSWHealth, 19 May 2023

In the 7 days up to 18 May 2023 the national COVID-19 death toll was in excess of 114 people.

Between Friday 12 May to Thursday 18 May 2023 61 of these confirmed COVID-19 deaths occurred in News South Wales.

There have been no 7-day reporting periods in 2023 where NSW deaths have been recorded in single digits – according to Covid Live weekly deaths over the last 20 NSW reporting periods have ranged from a low of 22 deaths (17, 24 March & 14 April 2023) to a high of 131 deaths (20 Jan 2023).

As NSW Dept. of Health no longer publishes the COVID-19 fourteen-day tables which include deaths by gender, age group and health district, there is now no way to break down current COVID-19 publicly available death data for the state or for the Northern Rivers region.

The last published table recording COVID-19 deaths by NSW local health district was for the week ending 22 April 2023 and the last published table including a Northern Rivers COVID-19 death was for week ending 15 April 2023.

From January 2023 to 15 April 2023 there have been est. 40 confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the Northern Rivers region.

All that can be stated from published tables from then on is that; as of 18 May there were 252 confirmed COVID-19 cases recorded that 7-day reporting period for the Northern NSW Local Health District, spread across all 7 local government areas and, that as of the preceding 6 May the health district was recording on a “Week To Date” and “Year To Date” basis more confirmed COVID-19 cases than confirmed Influenza and RSV cases combined.

The Australian Department of Health and Aged Care released the following information on 19 May 2023:

As at 8:00 am 18 May 2023 there are 3,132 active COVID-19 cases in 453 active outbreaks in residential aged care facilities across Australia. There have been 207 new outbreaks, 38 new resident deaths and 2,751 combined new resident and staff cases reported since 11 May 2023.

[my yellow highlighting]

New South Wales had the highest number of aged care facility COVID-19 outbreaks during 12-18 May period. As well as the highest number of aged care residents & staff with active COVID-19 infections. 

Sadly, compared to other states and territories New South Wales at 14 residential facilities also had the highest number of aged care facilities reporting COVID-19 deaths among their residents. Resulting in this state having possibly the highest number of residential aged care deaths* across all Australian states and territories.

Note: 

* The actual number of NSW aged care deaths in the 7 days to 18 May 2023 is problematic as the Dept. of Health for privacy reasons reported deaths in aged care facilities in blocs of “<6”. So deaths at the 14 individual facilities involved ranged from 1-5 elderly people per facility.

See: COVID-19 outbreaks in Australian residential aged care facilities: National snapshot, 19 May 2023, APPENDIX 1

Long COVID aka post-acute sequelae of COVID-19 (PASC) in 2023: no you are not imagining it nor being a malingerer. However research is in its infancy with regard to your often debilitating illness

 

First the good news. On 24 April 2023 the Minister For Health & Labor MP for Port Adelaide Mark Butler announced that The Australian Government will provide a further $50 million from the Medical Research Future Fund (MRFF) for research into post-acute sequelae of COVID-19 (PASC) – commonly known as Long COVID.

Bringing the Long COVID research funding pool to a total of $66.6 million and proving that parliamentary committee's can sometimes galvanise government.

The following is a slightly more mixed message, as at this stage prevention of Long COVID seems to rely on the implementation of public health measures the states and territories have long since abandoned in practice.

April 2023
CANBERRA

The 213-page report to the Australian Parliament by the House of Representatives Committee on Health, Aged Care and Sport can be read and downloaded at:

https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/download/committees/reportrep/RB000006/toc_pdf/SickandtiredCastingalongshadow.pdf

The Committee accepts the World Health Organisation (WHO) definition of Long COVID as being the continuation or development of new symptoms 3 months after the initial SARS-CoV-2 infection, with these symptoms lasting for at least 2 months with no other explanation. Debilitating symptoms can be wide ranging with over 200 being recorded by WHO.

It further accepts that the number of people in Australia who were diagnosed with COVID-19 and were at risk of or possibly went on to develop Long COVID could be anywhere between 228,039 to 2,280,399 individuals. The difficulty in tying down a more definitive figure when it comes to the number of Long COVID suffers is apparently hampered by the paucity of data which has been collected to date.

The report goes on to inform government that:

At this stage it does seem that specific treatments require more evidence of benefit before being specifically recommended, but this will become clearer over time. Certainly, most of the care needs to be provided by the primary care system, such as by GPs, nurses, and allied health professionals.

We will need to help schools, universities, and workplaces adapt to allow the gradual return of people with long COVID. We will also need to train health professionals in how to diagnose and manage long COVID patients.

Mental health issues are clearly an area of concern too, particularly as many suffering from long COVID are aged between 20 and 50 years old and have many concerns, such as family and/or work responsibilities, which place additional stresses on them.....

It is also of concern that women seem more likely to be affected by long COVID than men.

The Committee is also of the view that when it comes to infectious disease and its aftermath:

the development of a national Centre for Disease Control (CDC) within the Department of Health and Aged Care would be the most appropriate mechanism for data collection and linkage with the states and territories.

Likewise, there is much that we do not understand about the virus, such as the fact that it is likely changing from being an acute pandemic virus to now an endemic form.

Research will be very important in helping us understand the best ways and means of managing its ongoing effects, particularly including long COVID. Research should include individuals from Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities, culturally and linguistically diverse communities and other high-risk groups including those who are immunosuppressed.

A research program should be established to nationally coordinate and fund research into long COVID and COVID-19 generally. This could be led by the Department of Health and Aged Care — ideally the CDC — and should be the for the longer term.

Clearly, there has been a number of issues raised about reducing transmission of COVID19, such as improving air quality to reduce aerosol spread and this also has reference to broader health outcomes and requires investigation. 

In addressing the prevention of Long COVID the report states quite clearly:

The committee received evidence that emphasised that the best way to prevent long COVID is to prevent an initial COVID-19 infection.

For example, Professor Margaret Hellard, Director of Programs at the Burnet Institute, argued that while we don’t have a full understanding of long COVID, the most effective way to avoid it is to ‘try and stop COVID and reduce the number of COVID infections.

This position is supported by the National Clinical Evidence Taskforce on COVID-19 (NCET), which recommended the Australian Government clearly communicate to the public and to health care providers ‘that prevention of COVID-19 is the most-effective method of preventing long term health issues’ resulting from the virus.

However, this is difficult to achieve without access to other preventative methods given the highly infectious nature of current Omicron variants circulating in the community.

The NCET summarised:

With the shift away from mandated mask use and regular reporting of COVID-19 cases, and the recent removal of the requirement for isolation following confirmed infection, people may have the highly inaccurate impression that COVID-19 is “over”. There is a lack of messaging that potential health risks related to COVID19 continue to be relevant and that vaccines, mask use in crowded indoor spaces, testing and isolation are still a valuable way to decrease the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, and mitigate the impact of long COVID.

The importance of mask wearing, physical distancing, hygiene and taking other health precautions when visiting high-risk settings cannot be underestimated.

However, the enforcement of these health measures is largely at state and territory government discretion, and to varying extents, now a matter of individual responsibility.

As for the Committee’s view on COVID-19 vaccination:

Booster doses of the COVID-19 vaccine are important to prevent waning immunity against the rapidly mutating COVID-19 virus.

On 8 February 2023 the Hon Mark Butler MP, Minister for Health and Aged Care, announced that from 20 February 2023 all adults who have not had a COVID-19 booster or a confirmed case in the past six months are eligible for a COVID-19 booster, irrespective of how many doses that person has received. Additional boosters for people under the age of 18 have not yet been announced, except where children aged 5 to 17 have health conditions that would put them at risk of severe illness.

Although COVID-19 vaccines are widely available and accessible, data suggests that many people are not electing to receive additional doses for which they are eligible. Professor Crabb AC suggested that this may be due to people becoming less aware of the risks associated with COVID-19 infections as the pandemic continues and commented on a general lack of motivation experienced by many people who received their first two doses but ‘don’t see the benefit’ in receiving booster doses......

The Committee made 9 recommendations to government which can be found on xxi & xxiv of the report.

COVID-19 NSW 2023: Counting Dead People Part 5

 

 

The COVID dead are not published over Easter as Australia enjoys a four day break, so most of the data in this post doesn't go beyond 6 - 7 April 2023. 

Between 31 March and 6 April 2023 there were 9,876 newly confirmed COVID-19 infections recorded in New South Wales.

A total of 952 COVID-19 cases had been hospitalised with 20 in intensive care unit. Note: Between 27 March and 2 April 2023 NSW Health records show 46.6% of those admitted with COVID-19 infections had received 4 or more vaccination doses. As of 1 April XBB and its sub-lineages were the dominant variant group in community cases. This includes XBB.1.5, XBB.1.16 and XBB.1.9.

Another 36 people had died as a result of COVID-19 infection in the 7 days up to 6 April 2023. NOTE: There is no published data on gender, age or area health service published for this group to date. However, given past NSW Respiratory Surveillance Report data it is like between 1-3 people died in the Northern River region and that they were in the oldest age groupings.

Of those people newly infected during this 7 day period, est. 220 lived in the NSW Northern Rivers region.

NOTE: Given that NSW Health in its 4-week tables only publishes local government area infection statistics for people who tested positive by way of a PCR test and in the Northern Rivers region around half the people being tested rely on the Rapid Antigen Test (RAT) to confirm COVID-19 infection, the following numbers for the 7 local government areas in NE NSW are significant underestimates of total positive tests.

Northern NSW COVID-19 Infection in 4 weeks up to 7 April 2023:

Tweed Shire — 142 cases across postcodes 2484, 2485, 2486, 2487, 2488, 2489, 2490; 

Byron Shire — 31 cases across postcodes 2479, 2481, 2482, 2483,

Ballina Shire — 57 cases across postcodes 2477, 2478, 

Lismore City — 24 cases across postcodes 2472, 2480; 

Kyogle — 5 cases in postcode 2474;

Richmond Valley — 7 cases across postcodes 2469, 2470, 2471, 2473;

Clarence Valley — 32 cases across postcodes 2460, 2462, 2463, 2464, 2465;

Note: These postcodes are based on Data NSW COVID-19 cases datasets

Covid Live calculated that between 1 January 2020 and 8 April 2023 a total of 3,952,896 men, women and children resident in New South Wales are known to have been infected by SARS-CoV-2 or one of its variants and contracted COVID-19.

According to NSW Health total deaths due to COVID-19 in New South Wales since the beginning of the pandemic are est. 6,634 men, women and children. An estimated 31% of all these deaths occurred in the 12 months & 13 days between 24 March 2022 and 6 April 2023.

Actuaries Australia published the latest excess death rate for Australia and its states and territories which was calculated at the end of 2022. That excess death rate was 12% for Australia representing 20,000 excess deaths, and 12% for NSW in which state that represented 6,600 excess deaths.

Actuaries Australia, Actuaries Digital, 6 April 2023:

Overall summary of excess mortality in 2022

We estimate that there were just over 20,000 (12%) more deaths in Australia in 2022 than we would have expected if there had been no pandemic. Excess mortality is widely regarded as the best measure of the overall impact of a pandemic since it includes deaths both directly and indirectly due to the disease.

Of the 20,200 excess deaths in 2022, we estimate that:

• 10,300 deaths (51%) were from COVID-19;

• 2,900 deaths (15%) were COVID-19 related, meaning that COVID-19 contributed to the death; and

• 7,000 deaths (34%) had no mention of COVID-19 on the death certificate.

Deaths from COVID-19 are those where COVID-19 is given as the underlying cause of death on the death certificate. Deaths from COVID-19 were the third leading cause of death in Australia in 2022. The main reason why the numbers do not match those derived from surveillance reports is that the latter includes almost all cases[1] where people had COVID-19 when they died. Reported surveillance deaths will include deaths from COVID-19, deaths that were COVID-19 related and other deaths where the doctor/coroner has determined that COVID-19 was incidental and had no role in the death of the person.

For most of the underlying causes of death reported on by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), the share of COVID-19 related deaths in 2022 is similar to the share of all non-COVID-19 deaths. The exceptions to this are dementia (which is over-represented in COVID-19 related deaths as frail dementia sufferers are also particularly vulnerable to COVID-19), respiratory disease (under-represented as COVID-19 is more likely to determined to be the underlying cause rather than a contributing cause) and coroner-referred deaths (under-represented, but the position could change as coroner findings are made).

It is unclear how close we are to reaching an endemic state when the impact of COVID-19 on mortality will become (more) predictable. Figure 2 shows that the latest wave of COVID-19 deaths continued in January 2023 (estimated at just over 1,000 deaths) but had ended by February 2023 (similar to the lowest month of 2022 at around 350 deaths).

The death certificates of about one-third of excess deaths in 2022 had no mention of COVID-19. These non-COVID-19 deaths represent excess mortality of 4%, which is extraordinarily high in itself, as can be seen in Figure 1. Non-COVID-19 excess deaths are particularly apparent in those aged over 75 for both genders and those aged under 65 for females only. We consider that the most likely reasons for these excess deaths are:

• The impact of COVID-19 on subsequent mortality risk, particularly heart disease, stroke, diabetes and dementia, which have all been identified in studies;

• Delays in emergency care, particularly at times of high prevalence of COVID-19 and/or influenza; and

• Delays in routine care, which refers to missed opportunities to diagnose or treat non-COVID-19 diseases and the likelihood of consequent higher mortality from those conditions in future. We understand that disrupted prescription of medications may be particularly likely to be a major risk factor for those with chronic heart disease….

Leading causes of death

The ABS reports on the top 20 leading causes of death by grouping deaths based on their International Classification of Diseases, version 10 (ICD-10) code. Cancers are grouped based on the region of the body rather than included as a whole. In this section, we assess where COVID-19 sits in terms of leading causes of death in Australia and have followed the ABS classification system.

We have estimated deaths for the leading causes for 2022. To do this, we have:

• Taken doctor-certified deaths by cause to 31 December as shown in Table 1;

• Included an allowance for coroner-referred deaths (using the historical ratio of doctor-certified to coroner-referred deaths); and

• For the leading cancer causes, we have estimated deaths from all cancers and then assumed lung cancers and colon cancers make up 18% and 12% respectively of all cancer deaths. These proportions have been stable over the recent period examined.

Click on image to enlarge

With around 10,300 deaths from COVID-19 in 2022, this puts COVID-19 as the third leading cause of death….

Excess deaths to 31 December 2022 by State/Territory

Table 3 shows our estimate of excess deaths by state/territory, before and after deducting from COVID-19 and COVID-19 related deaths.

Click on image to enlarge

In 2022, all states/territories apart from NT had significant levels of excess mortality ranging from 10% to 16% of predicted. Generally, about half of this is due to deaths from COVID-19, with another 1-2% due to COVID-19 related deaths......

In 2022:

• Queensland had a large peak in non-COVID excess deaths in the middle of the year (at the time of flu and COVID-19 waves). NSW had a smaller peak at this time, but Victoria did not have a similar peak; and

• Barring the winter peaks for NSW and Queensland, Victoria’s non-COVID-19 excess has tended to be higher than the other two large states…...

Read the full article here.

COVID-19 NSW State Of Play 2023: Counting Dead People - Part 4

IMAGE: www1.racgp.org.au

According to the World Health Organisation (WHO) Omicron variants of SARS-CoV-2 remain the currently circulating variants of concern.

By the end of February 2023 the SARS-CoV-2 sequences by variant pool found in Australia were estimated at 24.46% Omicron (BA 2.75), 1.09% Omicron (BA.5),13.59% Omicron (BQ.1), 3.26% Omicron (XBB), 26.63% Omicron (XBB1.5) and 30.98% recombinant variants. NOTE: Only a fraction of all cases are sequenced and Recently-discovered or actively-monitored variants may be overrepresented, as suspected cases of these variants are likely to be sequenced preferentially or faster than other cases [Our World Of Data, 5 March 2023].

In the 7 days up to 25 February 2023 in NSW South Wales a total of 48 people were recorded as having died from COVID-19.

Of these 26 were adult men and 22 were adult women.

Two of the dead were in the 40-49 year age group and the other 46 deceased individuals were aged between 70 years of age & 90+ years.

Three of the dead were from the Northern Rivers region, which in that 7 day period had seen 223 local residents recorded as newly infected with COVID-19.

In the 7 days up to 2 March 2023 an est. 213 Northern Rivers residents were recorded as newly infected with COVID-19. 

NOTE: NSW COVID-19 data is held at multiple points on the NSW Government’s online public access health data site/s. For reasons best known to itself these sites rarely use identical time periods for their published summaries. This means there is a 2 day overlap in the two 7 day periods for the Northern Rivers which renders the infection number for 2 March an estimate. As yet no deaths have been published for local health district for these particular 7 days.

Over the 12 days from 19 February to 2 March 2023 multiple confirmed cases of COVID-19 were reported in the following Northern Rivers local government areas:

• Tweed Shire – postcodes 2484, 2485, 2486, 2487, 2488, 2489;

• Kyogle Shire – postcodes 2474;

• Ballina Shire – postcodes 2477, 2478;

• Byron Shire – postcodes 2479, 2480, 2481, 2482, 2483;

• Lismore City – postcodes 2472, 2480;

• Richmond Valley – postcodes 2469, 2470, 2471, 2473, ; and

• Clarence Valley – postcodes 2460, 2462, 2463, 2464, 2465, 2466.

State-wide in NSW in the 7 days up to 2 March 2023 a total of 7,163 new cases of COVID-19 infection were recorded With 800 infected people hospitalised and a total of 29 deaths recorded.

At that point in time (2 March 2023) the total number of COVID-19 cases recorded in NSW since the pandemic began in January-February 2020 had reached est. 3,907,940 people infected, of which 6,493 have been recorded as dying as a result of contracting the viral infection.

By 3 March 2023 the cumulative total of COVID-19 deaths Australia-wide had reached est. 19,459 men, women and children.

The recorded cumulative number of people infected with the virus, as well as those dying as a result of infection, continues to rise in what is now the fourth year of uncontrolled viral infection spread in the general populace.

Sources:

NSW Health

Data NSW

covidlive.com.au

Our World In Data

WHO