COVID-19 NSW State Of Play 2023: Counting Dead People - Part 4

IMAGE: www1.racgp.org.au

According to the World Health Organisation (WHO) Omicron variants of SARS-CoV-2 remain the currently circulating variants of concern.

By the end of February 2023 the SARS-CoV-2 sequences by variant pool found in Australia were estimated at 24.46% Omicron (BA 2.75), 1.09% Omicron (BA.5),13.59% Omicron (BQ.1), 3.26% Omicron (XBB), 26.63% Omicron (XBB1.5) and 30.98% recombinant variants. NOTE: Only a fraction of all cases are sequenced and Recently-discovered or actively-monitored variants may be overrepresented, as suspected cases of these variants are likely to be sequenced preferentially or faster than other cases [Our World Of Data, 5 March 2023].

In the 7 days up to 25 February 2023 in NSW South Wales a total of 48 people were recorded as having died from COVID-19.

Of these 26 were adult men and 22 were adult women.

Two of the dead were in the 40-49 year age group and the other 46 deceased individuals were aged between 70 years of age & 90+ years.

Three of the dead were from the Northern Rivers region, which in that 7 day period had seen 223 local residents recorded as newly infected with COVID-19.

In the 7 days up to 2 March 2023 an est. 213 Northern Rivers residents were recorded as newly infected with COVID-19. 

NOTE: NSW COVID-19 data is held at multiple points on the NSW Government’s online public access health data site/s. For reasons best known to itself these sites rarely use identical time periods for their published summaries. This means there is a 2 day overlap in the two 7 day periods for the Northern Rivers which renders the infection number for 2 March an estimate. As yet no deaths have been published for local health district for these particular 7 days.

Over the 12 days from 19 February to 2 March 2023 multiple confirmed cases of COVID-19 were reported in the following Northern Rivers local government areas:

• Tweed Shire – postcodes 2484, 2485, 2486, 2487, 2488, 2489;

• Kyogle Shire – postcodes 2474;

• Ballina Shire – postcodes 2477, 2478;

• Byron Shire – postcodes 2479, 2480, 2481, 2482, 2483;

• Lismore City – postcodes 2472, 2480;

• Richmond Valley – postcodes 2469, 2470, 2471, 2473, ; and

• Clarence Valley – postcodes 2460, 2462, 2463, 2464, 2465, 2466.

State-wide in NSW in the 7 days up to 2 March 2023 a total of 7,163 new cases of COVID-19 infection were recorded With 800 infected people hospitalised and a total of 29 deaths recorded.

At that point in time (2 March 2023) the total number of COVID-19 cases recorded in NSW since the pandemic began in January-February 2020 had reached est. 3,907,940 people infected, of which 6,493 have been recorded as dying as a result of contracting the viral infection.

By 3 March 2023 the cumulative total of COVID-19 deaths Australia-wide had reached est. 19,459 men, women and children.

The recorded cumulative number of people infected with the virus, as well as those dying as a result of infection, continues to rise in what is now the fourth year of uncontrolled viral infection spread in the general populace.

Sources:

NSW Health

Data NSW

covidlive.com.au

Our World In Data

WHO

Tweet of the Month

I don’t appreciate being interrupted while speaking on serious risks of repeated covid infections.

I particularly don’t appreciate being interrupted by shouting LNP MPs who refuse to wear masks.

We all have a duty to look after each other. Here & everywhere.

Put your mask on! pic.twitter.com/u5evZ0k4Oi

— Dr Monique Ryan MP (@Mon4Kooyong) August 1, 2022

The question has to be asked. How many of the more than 9.23 million people who caught COVID-19 in the last 2 years and five months will have their lives diminished or shortened by chronic post-COVID health conditions?

It is time Australian society stops pretending it is on top of this pandemic.......

ABC News, 28 July 2022:

NSW Health looked at data from 639,430 people infected with COVID for the first time in January when the Omicron wave took off.

The analysis was done by matching the name, and date of birth, of cases.

It showed that within five months, 20,460 people, or 3.2 per cent, had been reinfected.

Reinfection was defined as a positive test four weeks after being released from seven-day isolation, or 36 days after testing positive.

More than 20,000 people reinfected with COVID within five months

Number and proportion of the 639,403 cases in January reinfected in subsequent months

…..Nick Wood, a paediatrician and immunisation expert from the University of Sydney, said in theory, the first exposure to COVID should give some natural immunity that would stop people getting as sick the second time around.

"Your prior immunological exposure, natural infection and vaccine history all probably plays into how you as the individual deal with your second infection," he said.

People who were immune-suppressed or who had ongoing respiratory problems from the first infection would be more impacted with subsequent infections, he said.

"That's all the difficulties in teasing it out how severe, but I think the general, the belief is that the second or third infection are probably less severe than the initial primary infection."

Dr Wood said the BA.4 and BA.5 sub-variants of Omicron were able to evade both vaccine-induced immunity and infection from a previous variant.

"The immunity that they generate is not enough to stop you being infected," he said.

He said that over time, experts hope that as new variants come along, the population is more able to deal with them because of past infections or vaccination……

On the 24th of this month The Sydney Morning Herald reported that:

Researchers investigating long COVID cases in Australia say 5 per cent of people infected with COVID-19 will develop the condition. The prevalence of long COVID before vaccinations were available was an estimated 10 per cent.

“The 55,000 people in Australia who tested positive today ... equates to 2000 to 3000 new cases of long COVID,” Kovacic said. To date, Australia has recorded almost 9 million COVID-19 cases.

Even after accounting for reinfection “we’re looking at almost half a million people who are going to be suffering long-term symptoms in the coming months”, Kovacic said.

The Guardian newspaper reported on 27 July 2022 that a serosurvey of antibodies to the virus detected in blood donations, conducted at the Kirby Institute and the National Centre for Immunisation Research and Surveillance (NCIRS), had found that in 5,139 blood donations received from adults between 9 June and 18 June evidence of past COVID-19 infection was detected in 46.2% of samples. A previous examination of blood donors in late February 2022 had found evidence of past infection in only 17% of blood donors.

Noni Winkler, an author of the findings and an epidemiologist at the NCIRS, said the sample size was large enough to reflect rates of the virus in the broader adult population. It should be noted that seroprevalence estimates may miss approximately 20% of infections.

According to the federal Dept. of Health, as of Thursday 27 July 2022 there were est. 373,868 confirmed active COVID-19 cases across Australia. A total of 499,566 of these cases were newly confirmed within the previous 24 hours.

At that point 5,364 COVID-19 infected people were hospitalised, with 145 in intensive care units including 38 patients requiring ventilation.

The national daily COVID-19 death toll on 27 July was 126 people.

By 27 July the cumulative total of confirmed COVID-19 cases stood at 9,235,014 – a figure that can only be described as a massive under reporting of the actual number of infected individuals between 25 January 2020 to 27 July 2022.

The cumulative total of confirmed deaths due to COVID-19 for the same time period is 11,387 deaths of men, women & children. The federal Dept. of Health records that 14 of these deaths were in children 0 to 9 years of age and est. 8,843 were in people aged 70 to 90+ years of age.

Needless to say, the highest cumulative death tolls up to 27 July are in the east coast mainland states of Victoria (4,433), New South Wales (4,051) and Queensland (1,510).

NSW Dept. of Health as at 4pm on Wednesday. 27 July 2022:

In the December 2021 - January 2022 during a SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant surge period in New South Wales, when the public health response was visibly failing to meet even the most basic needs (information, testing & general support) of people expected to self-manage their COVID-19 infection at home, anecdotal evidence began to surface in Northern NSW that individuals and whole families were no longer reporting the result of RAT tests to NSW Health or seeking PCR testing where it was still available.

It was at that point that official government pandemic statistics in Australia were broken beyond repair as a predictive tool with regard to future pandemic behaviour and, effective federal-state public health strategies withered away in the face of continuously climbing infection and mortality figures in the most populous states.

State of Play in New South Wales on Monday, 18 July 2022 in Year 3 of the COVID-19 pandemic

 

New South Wales

According to the latest published data at time of posting, as at 4pm on Monday 18 July 2022 there were 141,747 active COVID-19 cases across the state, with 13,544 of these being newly confirmed cases in the previous 24 hours and of whom 441 lived in the 7 local local government areas of Northern NSW.

A total of 26 people died from COVID-19 disease across the state in that same 24 hour reporting period.

Total COVID-19 deaths since the start of the pandemic within NSW now stands at est. 3,853 men & women.

2,205 confirmed cases of COVID-19 were currently hospitalised, with 60 in intensive care of which 13 required ventilation.

As at 11 July 2022 an est. 47,895 people were being self-managed or cared for by household members. It is possibly that on 18 July that number was significantly higher.

On the same day NSW Health listed 2,507 health care workers as being in COVID-19 isolation.

Additionally, in the first 17 days of July 8,776 people in NSW had been diagnosed with Influenza.

On 13 July 2022 in 10 of the 15 local health districts across NSW an est. 20% of hospitalisation capacity was being used by COVID-19 patients and the public health system stress alert indicator was:

Australia-wide

As at 18 July 2022 there were est. 341,204 active COVID-19 cases across the country, with 39,046 being newly confirmed cases in the previous 24 hours.

An est. 30 people died from COVID-19 disease across the country in that same 24 hour reporting period, with another est. 75 deaths recorded up to 4.30pm the next day, 19 July 2022.

Total deaths from COVID-19 since 25 January 2020 now stand at 10,719 men and women, with the majority being 70 years of age and older at time of death.

5,001 confirmed cases of COVID-19 were currently hospitalised across the country, with 155 patients in intensive care of which an unknown number required ventilation.

Additionally, in the fortnight up to 3 July 2022 a total of 187,431 people across the Australia had been diagnosed with Influenza.

SOURCES

NSW:

https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/covid-19/Pages/default.aspx

https://aci.health.nsw.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0003/735267/20220713-COVID-19-Risk-Monitoring-Dashboard.pdf

https://www1.health.nsw.gov.au/IDD/#/FLU/period/%257B%2522prDisease%2522%253A%2522FLU%2522%252C%2522prLHD%2522%253A%2522X700%252CX710%252CX720%252CX730%2

Australia:

https://www.health.gov.au/health-alerts/covid-19/case-numbers-and-statistics

https://covidlive.com.au/

COVID-19 Omicron cases on the rise again in NSW and an increase in hospitalisation expected

 

According to NSW Health, as at 4pm on 5 July 2022 there were 124,706 confirmed active COVID-19 cases in the state, including 13,775 newly confirmed COVID-19 infections.

Within the newly infected group were 338 individuals from across the 7 local government areas in Northern NSW.

A total of 1,822 infected people were currently hospitalised, with 64 of these COVID-19 inpatients in intensive care of which number 16 individuals required ventilation.

Sadly there were 20 confirmed COVID-19 deaths within that 24 hour reporting period.

The Sydney Morning Herald, 5 July 2022:

NSW is facing a coronavirus wave tipped to rival the Omicron summer as the state government and health bodies push for better access to antiviral treatments and expanded eligibility for fourth doses.

Chief Health Officer Kerry Chant said the NSW COVID-19 wave was expected to peak in late July or early August with hospitalisations similar to those in January. She urged the third of people who have not yet had a booster shot to do so urgently.

“Disregard anything we’ve said about two doses. It’s three doses or more,” Chant said.

A national surge in coronavirus cases is being driven by the newer BA.4 and BA.5 Omicron variants, which better evade immunity from previous infection and vaccination.

Throughout June, about 30 per cent of virus deaths – three-quarters of whom were in their 80s and 90s – were not up-to-date with their shots.

But with fourth doses currently restricted to people over 65 or those with certain health conditions, Chant said she would support national vaccine advisory group ATAGI expanding eligibility when it meets on Wednesday……

Representative bodies for healthcare workers, including the Australian Medical Association and the Pharmaceutical Society of Australia, have expressed concern about waning immunity as infections rise. While a single booster shot is considered to still provide significant protection against severe illness and death, most doctors, nurses and pharmacists are now well over six months since their third dose.

In addition to expanding fourth doses, Chant and Hazzard both said they would support clearer eligibility criteria for oral antiviral COVID-19 treatments Paxlovid and Lagevrio.

Federal Health Minister Mark Butler has directed the Pharmaceutical Benefits Advisory Committee to review its conditions for subsidised access, labelling them “too restrictive”.

Antivirals are currently available for people aged 65 and over with two high-risk factors; those aged 75 and over with one high-risk factor; or moderately to severely immunocompromised people. People in these age groups may be recommended a particular antiviral, due to interactions with other medications…..

With 1782 people with COVID-19 in hospital on Tuesday, Chant said she had not recommended further public health restrictions. Instead, she encouraged the public to wear masks and take steps to reduce their risk of catching winter viruses including flu……

Full article can be read here.

Twice the numbers of Australian residents than previously reported - est. 3.90 million people - contracted SARS-CoV-2 COVID-19 between the beginning of December 2021 and end of February 2022

 

An estimated 3,905,966 Australian residents contracted SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 (probably the Omicron or Omicron sub-variants) between the beginning of December 2021 and end of February 2022.

That is 3.9 million people infected in a three month period.

According to NCIRS - Australian COVID-19 Serosurveillance Network:

"Prevalence of anti-nucleocapsid antibodies was 17.0% (16.0–18.0) overall. Seroprevalence was highest in Queensland (25.8%; 23.3–28.5), followed by Victoria (22.6%; 20.1–25.2) and NSW (21.4%; 19.1–23.9). Seroprevalence was lowest, at 0.5% (0.2–1.2) in WA (Figure 4A). No differences in seroprevalence across jurisdictions were observed following age adjustment compared with unadjusted seroprevalence..."  [my yellow highlighting]

On the last day of February 2022 there were still 204,973 confirmed active COVID-19 cases across Australia and the daily number of confirmed active cases steadily grew during March before peaking at 483,680 cases as the month ended.

On 3 April national confirmed active Covid-19 daily cases reached 502,377 before slowly falling to remain stubbornly well above 400,000 until mid-April when cases number began to fall again.

On 1 May 2022 Australia had 326,554 confirmed active COVID-19 cases, by 16 May 385,923 & by 31 May 278,717.

As of 4pm on Monday, 20 June 2022, Australia-wide there were est. 211,622 active cases of COVID-19 recorded by the Australian Government Dept. Of Health.

All these March to June 2022 figures are considered to also be a significant under reporting of actual infection numbers in the general population.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Media release, 20 June 2022:

National antibody study confirms COVID-19 cases higher than reported

• At least 17% of Australian adults are estimated to have recently had COVID-19 at the end of February 2022.

• Adults aged 18–29 years had the highest proportion of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19.

• Queensland had the highest antibody positivity rate, while Western Australia had the lowest.

• The next blood donor survey and a paediatric serosurvey have commenced and will provide an updated snapshot to mid-June 2022.

It is estimated that at the end of February 2022 at least 17% of the Australian adult population had recently been infected with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, according to results released today from Australia’s most recent serosurvey of antibodies to the virus in blood donors. The vast majority of these infections are believed to have occurred during the Omicron wave that began in December 2021. Based on survey results, the proportion of people infected was at least twice as high as indicated by cases reported to authorities at the end of February 2022. [my yellow highlighting]

The serosurvey was conducted by the National Centre for Immunisation Research and Surveillance (NCIRS) and the Kirby Institute at UNSW Sydney, in collaboration with Australian Red Cross Lifeblood, Royal Melbourne Hospital’s Victorian Infectious Diseases Reference Laboratory at the Doherty Institute and other research partners.

The highest proportion of adults with antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 was in Queensland (26%), followed by Victoria (23%) and New South Wales (21%), while Western Australia had the lowest (0.5%).

The serosurvey method detects higher proportions of infection than routine surveillance based on cases diagnosed and reported at the time of infection, which misses people who didn’t present for a test or whose positive test result was not reported to authorities.

The national antibody survey was conducted in late February to early March 2022, approximately 6 weeks after the peak of the Omicron wave in New South Wales, the Australian Capital Territory, Queensland and Victoria and prior to substantial transmission in Western Australia.

“The general pattern of antibody positivity in blood donors was consistent with the pattern in reported cases to the end of February 2022: New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland having had big outbreaks, and Western Australia having very limited community transmission,” says Dr Dorothy Machalek, lead investigator on the project from the Kirby Institute. “Similarly, young blood donors had the highest rate of infection, matching higher reported case numbers in this age group.”

Researchers examined 5,185 de-identified samples from Australian blood donors aged 18–89 years for evidence of COVID-19–related antibodies. Two types of antibody to SAR-CoV-2 were tested: antibody to the nucleocapsid protein, which provides an indication of past infection, and antibody to the spike protein, which can indicate past infection and/or vaccination.

Evidence of past infection was highest among donors aged 18–29 years at 27.2%, declining with increasing age to 6.4% in donors aged 70–89 years across Victoria, New South Wales and Queensland. In Western Australia, evidence of recent infection was extremely low across all age groups. Nationally, the proportion of the population with antibodies to the spike protein was far higher, at around 98%.

“As expected a very high proportion of the blood donors had antibodies to the spike protein of the COVID-19 virus, with little variation by age group and sex. This was likely due to high vaccination rates among blood donors, as well as in the wider population,” says Professor Kristine Macartney, Director of NCIRS and Professor at The University of Sydney.

“Future rounds of the blood donor serosurvey will allow us to understand how many infections occur throughout 2022,” Professor Macartney said. “We are also conducting a second national paediatric serosurvey that started collection in June and this will give us better insights into transmission in children and teenagers.”

The ongoing blood donor survey, co-led by the Kirby Institute and NCIRS in collaboration with Australian Red Cross Lifeblood, also involves investigators at the Royal Melbourne Hospital’s Victorian Infectious Diseases Reference Laboratory at the Doherty Institute, NSW Health Pathology ICPMR, The University of Sydney and Murdoch Children’s Research Institute.

The residual blood donation samples used in the survey were obtained from Lifeblood’s processing centres across the country and delinked from any identifying information apart from age, sex and post code. Individual results can therefore not be provided back to blood donors.

“Australian Red Cross Lifeblood encourages anyone wanting to contribute to this type of research to become a regular donor. There are many benefits to donating, including finding out your blood type,” says Professor David Irving, Director of Research and Development at Australian Red Cross Lifeblood.

The next round of the Lifeblood donor survey has commenced from mid-June. This time point will estimate SARS-CoV-2 antibody prevalence following the spread of the Omicron BA.2 and other subvariants. Data are provided to all states, territories and the Commonwealth Government under the Australian National Disease Surveillance Plan for COVID-19.

Read the full report here

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2-specific antibodies among Australian blood donors, February–March 2022, The Australian COVID-19 Serosurveillance Network, Final report, 3 June 2022, p. 7. Click on image to enlarge

SOURCES

• Dept. Of Health, Coronavirus (COVID-19) at a glance infographic collection

A collection of infographics providing a quick view of the coronavirus (COVID-19) situation in Australia since 5 April 2020.

• Dept. Of Health, Coronavirus (COVID-19) case numbers and statistics

• National Centre for Immunisation Research and Surveillance

Under reporting of COVID-19 cases in New South Wales is now a sick joke being played on the population

As of 4pm on Friday, 17 June 2022, Australia-wide there were est. 208,173 active cases of COVID-19 recorded by the Australian Government Dept. Of Health.

Of these, 30,302 confirmed cases had been reported in the prior 24 hours.

A total of 2,817 cases were currently hospitalised on 17 June, with 93 in intensive care units and of these 30 people requiring ventilation.

In the 24 hours to 4pm on 17 June 51 people had died as a result of contracting COVID19. As government agencies do not update on weekends it is noted that covidlive.com.au reported a further 64 deaths on Saturday 18 June.

In New South Wales up 4pm on Friday 14 June 2022 there were 85,386 active cases of COVID-19 and in the 24 hours up to 4pm 17 June there were 8,119 newly confirmed COVID-19 cases.

A total of 1,344 cases were currently hospitalised on 17 June, with 45 in intensive care units and of these 18 requiring ventilation.

In the 24 hours to 4pm on Friday, 17 June 25 people had died as a result of contracting COVID-19.

Since the SARS-CoV-2/Covid-19 pandemic first entered Australia and NSW in late January 2020, NSW Health has recorded a total 2,704,725 confirmed cases of COVID-19 – a conservative figure given the ongoing under reporting of infection numbers – and 3,387 deaths.

The seven local government areas in the NSW Northern Rivers region recorded the following newly confirmed COVID-19 case numbers as at 4pm on Friday, 17 June 2022:

Tweed Shire – details not available

Ballina Shire – details not available

Byron Shire – details not available

Lismore City – details not available

Richmond Valley – details not available

Clarence Valley – details not available

Kyogle Shire – details not available

TOTAL 242 cases – 77 confirmed as positive by Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) tests & 165 confirmed positive by Rapid Antigen Tests (RATs).

In the four weeks to 17 June 2022 the seven local government areas in the NSW Northern Rivers region recorded the following number of confirmed COVID-19 cases:

Tweed Shire – 443 cases confirmed by PCR tests. All cases confirmed by RATs excluded from the count;

Ballina Shire – 250 cases confirmed by PCR tests. All cases confirmed by RATs excluded from the count;

Byron Shire – 104 cases confirmed by PCR tests. All cases confirmed by RATs excluded from the count;

Lismore City – 167 cases confirmed by PCR tests. All cases confirmed by RATs excluded from the count;

Richmond Valley – 126 cases confirmed by PCR tests. All cases confirmed by RATs excluded from the count;

Clarence Valley – 123 cases confirmed by PCR tests. All cases confirmed by RATs excluded from the count;

Kyogle Shire – 16 cases confirmed by PCR tests. All cases confirmed by RATs excluded from the count.

TOTAL 1,229 cases – this figure includes only cases confirmed as positive by PCR tests and deliberately excludes all positive RAT testing.

Note: Under reporting of COVID-19 infection in the Northern Rivers region over the four week period ending 17 June 2022 is possibly in the vicinity of more than 1,229 persons – bringing the estimated total number to anywhere between 2,458 to 3,687 infected people spread out over the 7 local government areas.