Showing posts with label deaths. Show all posts
Showing posts with label deaths. Show all posts

Monday 10 April 2023

COVID-19 NSW 2023: Counting Dead People Part 5

 

 

The COVID dead are not published over Easter as Australia enjoys a four day break, so most of the data in this post doesn't go beyond 6 - 7 April 2023. 


Between 31 March and 6 April 2023 there were 9,876 newly confirmed COVID-19 infections recorded in New South Wales.


A total of 952 COVID-19 cases had been hospitalised with 20 in intensive care unit. Note: Between 27 March and 2 April 2023 NSW Health records show 46.6% of those admitted with COVID-19 infections had received 4 or more vaccination doses. As of 1 April XBB and its sub-lineages were the dominant variant group in community cases. This includes XBB.1.5, XBB.1.16 and XBB.1.9.


Another 36 people had died as a result of COVID-19 infection in the 7 days up to 6 April 2023. NOTE: There is no published data on gender, age or area health service published for this group to date. However, given past NSW Respiratory Surveillance Report data it is like between 1-3 people died in the Northern River region and that they were in the oldest age groupings.


Of those people newly infected during this 7 day period, est. 220 lived in the NSW Northern Rivers region.


NOTE: Given that NSW Health in its 4-week tables only publishes local government area infection statistics for people who tested positive by way of a PCR test and in the Northern Rivers region around half the people being tested rely on the Rapid Antigen Test (RAT) to confirm COVID-19 infection, the following numbers for the 7 local government areas in NE NSW are significant underestimates of total positive tests.


Northern NSW COVID-19 Infection in 4 weeks up to 7 April 2023:


Tweed Shire — 142 cases across postcodes 2484, 2485, 2486, 2487, 2488, 2489, 2490; 


Byron Shire  31 cases across postcodes 2479, 2481, 2482, 2483,


Ballina Shire  57 cases across postcodes 2477, 2478, 


Lismore City — 24 cases across postcodes 2472, 2480; 


Kyogle — 5 cases in postcode 2474;


Richmond Valley — 7 cases across postcodes 2469, 2470, 2471, 2473;


Clarence Valley — 32 cases across postcodes 2460, 2462, 2463, 2464, 2465;


Note: These postcodes are based on Data NSW COVID-19 cases datasets


Covid Live calculated that between 1 January 2020 and 8 April 2023 a total of 3,952,896 men, women and children resident in New South Wales are known to have been infected by SARS-CoV-2 or one of its variants and contracted COVID-19.


According to NSW Health total deaths due to COVID-19 in New South Wales since the beginning of the pandemic are est. 6,634 men, women and children. An estimated 31% of all these deaths occurred in the 12 months & 13 days between 24 March 2022 and 6 April 2023.


Actuaries Australia published the latest excess death rate for Australia and its states and territories which was calculated at the end of 2022. That excess death rate was 12% for Australia representing 20,000 excess deaths, and 12% for NSW in which state that represented 6,600 excess deaths.



Actuaries Australia, Actuaries Digital, 6 April 2023:


Overall summary of excess mortality in 2022


We estimate that there were just over 20,000 (12%) more deaths in Australia in 2022 than we would have expected if there had been no pandemic. Excess mortality is widely regarded as the best measure of the overall impact of a pandemic since it includes deaths both directly and indirectly due to the disease.


Of the 20,200 excess deaths in 2022, we estimate that:


  • 10,300 deaths (51%) were from COVID-19;

  • 2,900 deaths (15%) were COVID-19 related, meaning that COVID-19 contributed to the death; and

  • 7,000 deaths (34%) had no mention of COVID-19 on the death certificate.















Deaths from COVID-19 are those where COVID-19 is given as the underlying cause of death on the death certificate. Deaths from COVID-19 were the third leading cause of death in Australia in 2022. The main reason why the numbers do not match those derived from surveillance reports is that the latter includes almost all cases[1] where people had COVID-19 when they died. Reported surveillance deaths will include deaths from COVID-19, deaths that were COVID-19 related and other deaths where the doctor/coroner has determined that COVID-19 was incidental and had no role in the death of the person.


For most of the underlying causes of death reported on by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), the share of COVID-19 related deaths in 2022 is similar to the share of all non-COVID-19 deaths. The exceptions to this are dementia (which is over-represented in COVID-19 related deaths as frail dementia sufferers are also particularly vulnerable to COVID-19), respiratory disease (under-represented as COVID-19 is more likely to determined to be the underlying cause rather than a contributing cause) and coroner-referred deaths (under-represented, but the position could change as coroner findings are made).


It is unclear how close we are to reaching an endemic state when the impact of COVID-19 on mortality will become (more) predictable. Figure 2 shows that the latest wave of COVID-19 deaths continued in January 2023 (estimated at just over 1,000 deaths) but had ended by February 2023 (similar to the lowest month of 2022 at around 350 deaths).















The death certificates of about one-third of excess deaths in 2022 had no mention of COVID-19. These non-COVID-19 deaths represent excess mortality of 4%, which is extraordinarily high in itself, as can be seen in Figure 1. Non-COVID-19 excess deaths are particularly apparent in those aged over 75 for both genders and those aged under 65 for females only. We consider that the most likely reasons for these excess deaths are:


  • The impact of COVID-19 on subsequent mortality risk, particularly heart disease, stroke, diabetes and dementia, which have all been identified in studies;

  • Delays in emergency care, particularly at times of high prevalence of COVID-19 and/or influenza; and

  • Delays in routine care, which refers to missed opportunities to diagnose or treat non-COVID-19 diseases and the likelihood of consequent higher mortality from those conditions in future. We understand that disrupted prescription of medications may be particularly likely to be a major risk factor for those with chronic heart disease….


Leading causes of death


The ABS reports on the top 20 leading causes of death by grouping deaths based on their International Classification of Diseases, version 10 (ICD-10) code. Cancers are grouped based on the region of the body rather than included as a whole. In this section, we assess where COVID-19 sits in terms of leading causes of death in Australia and have followed the ABS classification system.


We have estimated deaths for the leading causes for 2022. To do this, we have:


  • Taken doctor-certified deaths by cause to 31 December as shown in Table 1;

  • Included an allowance for coroner-referred deaths (using the historical ratio of doctor-certified to coroner-referred deaths); and

  • For the leading cancer causes, we have estimated deaths from all cancers and then assumed lung cancers and colon cancers make up 18% and 12% respectively of all cancer deaths. These proportions have been stable over the recent period examined.


Click on image to enlarge


With around 10,300 deaths from COVID-19 in 2022, this puts COVID-19 as the third leading cause of death….


Excess deaths to 31 December 2022 by State/Territory


Table 3 shows our estimate of excess deaths by state/territory, before and after deducting from COVID-19 and COVID-19 related deaths.



Click on image to enlarge








In 2022, all states/territories apart from NT had significant levels of excess mortality ranging from 10% to 16% of predicted. Generally, about half of this is due to deaths from COVID-19, with another 1-2% due to COVID-19 related deaths......


In 2022:


  • Queensland had a large peak in non-COVID excess deaths in the middle of the year (at the time of flu and COVID-19 waves). NSW had a smaller peak at this time, but Victoria did not have a similar peak; and

  • Barring the winter peaks for NSW and Queensland, Victoria’s non-COVID-19 excess has tended to be higher than the other two large states…...


Read the full article here.


Tuesday 7 March 2023

COVID-19 NSW State Of Play 2023: Counting Dead People - Part 4


IMAGE: www1.racgp.org.au



According to the World Health Organisation (WHO) Omicron variants of SARS-CoV-2 remain the currently circulating variants of concern.


By the end of February 2023 the SARS-CoV-2 sequences by variant pool found in Australia were estimated at 24.46% Omicron (BA 2.75), 1.09% Omicron (BA.5),13.59% Omicron (BQ.1), 3.26% Omicron (XBB), 26.63Omicron (XBB1.5) and 30.98% recombinant variants. NOTE: Only a fraction of all cases are sequenced and Recently-discovered or actively-monitored variants may be overrepresented, as suspected cases of these variants are likely to be sequenced preferentially or faster than other cases [Our World Of Data, 5 March 2023].


In the 7 days up to 25 February 2023 in NSW South Wales a total of 48 people were recorded as having died from COVID-19.


Of these 26 were adult men and 22 were adult women.


Two of the dead were in the 40-49 year age group and the other 46 deceased individuals were aged between 70 years of age & 90+ years.


Three of the dead were from the Northern Rivers region, which in that 7 day period had seen 223 local residents recorded as newly infected with COVID-19.


In the 7 days up to 2 March 2023 an est. 213 Northern Rivers residents were recorded as newly infected with COVID-19. 


NOTE: NSW COVID-19 data is held at multiple points on the NSW Government’s online public access health data site/s. For reasons best known to itself these sites rarely use identical time periods for their published summaries. This means there is a 2 day overlap in the two 7 day periods for the Northern Rivers which renders the infection number for 2 March an estimate. As yet no deaths have been published for local health district for these particular 7 days.


Over the 12 days from 19 February to 2 March 2023 multiple confirmed cases of COVID-19 were reported in the following Northern Rivers local government areas:

  • Tweed Shire – postcodes 2484, 2485, 2486, 2487, 2488, 2489;

  • Kyogle Shire – postcodes 2474;

  • Ballina Shire – postcodes 2477, 2478;

  • Byron Shire – postcodes 2479, 2480, 2481, 2482, 2483;

  • Lismore City – postcodes 2472, 2480;

  • Richmond Valley – postcodes 2469, 2470, 2471, 2473, ; and

  • Clarence Valley – postcodes 2460, 2462, 2463, 2464, 2465, 2466.


State-wide in NSW in the 7 days up to 2 March 2023 a total of 7,163 new cases of COVID-19 infection were recorded With 800 infected people hospitalised and a total of 29 deaths recorded.


At that point in time (2 March 2023) the total number of COVID-19 cases recorded in NSW since the pandemic began in January-February 2020 had reached est. 3,907,940 people infected, of which 6,493 have been recorded as dying as a result of contracting the viral infection.


By 3 March 2023 the cumulative total of COVID-19 deaths Australia-wide had reached est. 19,459 men, women and children.


The recorded cumulative number of people infected with the virus, as well as those dying as a result of infection, continues to rise in what is now the fourth year of uncontrolled viral infection spread in the general populace.



Sources:

NSW Health

Data NSW

covidlive.com.au

Our World In Data

WHO




Sunday 22 January 2023

COVID-19 NSW STATE OF PLAY 2023: Counting Dead People

 

The NSW Perrottet Government publishes a very basic update of COVID-19 infection statistics once every 7 days and it releases a weekly epidemiological report whenever it feels in the mood.

So the only NSW Respiratory Surveillance Report-weekly epidemiology summary currently available which contains data on new infections, hospitalisation and basic mortality demographics, only covers the period 1-7 January 2023.

In that particular 7 days only two out of the 15 state local health districts did not record a death due to COVID-19, these were the Far West and Northern NSW.

Of the total 92 deaths of people (aged between 30-39 years & 90+ years) recorded between 1-7 January, 36 were aged care residents (14 of these people died in hospital and 22 died at an aged care facility), 7 people diagnosed with COVID-19 prior to death died at home and presumably the remaining 49 died in local public hospitals.

The following graphics show that while infection and hospitalisation numbers are falling in the first three weeks of 2023 the death toll continues to mount.

 





Graphics via @NSWHealth

 

The total number of deaths included in these four graphs represent 352 people.


The Sydney Morning Herald, 21 January 2023:


Everyone dies. But last year in NSW, far more people than usual did. Every single week up to September, dozens more deaths were reported than the state’s average. The cause is no secret: a rapidly ageing population combined with the ongoing impact of the pandemic.


But behind those numbers stands a colossal and often misunderstood industry that deals with everything from palliative care and burials to cremation and counselling.


And under immense pressure, 2022 changed it forever.


Crematorium operators spent the year dealing with a “high volume” of requests, funeral directors have been forced to increase their services and, as if to prove bureaucracy stays with you to the grave, the city’s cemeteries are set to be full within 10 years.


Guardian Funerals, a giant provider of funerals across the state, said they assisted “more families than ever before in 2022 and as we have commenced 2023, there continues to be an increased demand for our services.”….. [my yellow highlighting]


It’s only now, after a few years of increased focus on dying, that the public is experiencing what those in the industry have known for decades: when it comes to dealing with death, Sydney is headed for a crisis.


Friday 29 July 2022

The question has to be asked. How many of the more than 9.23 million people who caught COVID-19 in the last 2 years and five months will have their lives diminished or shortened by chronic post-COVID health conditions?


It is time Australian society stops pretending it is on top of this pandemic.......


ABC News, 28 July 2022:


NSW Health looked at data from 639,430 people infected with COVID for the first time in January when the Omicron wave took off.


The analysis was done by matching the name, and date of birth, of cases.


It showed that within five months, 20,460 people, or 3.2 per cent, had been reinfected.


Reinfection was defined as a positive test four weeks after being released from seven-day isolation, or 36 days after testing positive.


More than 20,000 people reinfected with COVID within five months


Number and proportion of the 639,403 cases in January reinfected in subsequent months








..Nick Wood, a paediatrician and immunisation expert from the University of Sydney, said in theory, the first exposure to COVID should give some natural immunity that would stop people getting as sick the second time around.


"Your prior immunological exposure, natural infection and vaccine history all probably plays into how you as the individual deal with your second infection," he said.


People who were immune-suppressed or who had ongoing respiratory problems from the first infection would be more impacted with subsequent infections, he said.


"That's all the difficulties in teasing it out how severe, but I think the general, the belief is that the second or third infection are probably less severe than the initial primary infection."


Dr Wood said the BA.4 and BA.5 sub-variants of Omicron were able to evade both vaccine-induced immunity and infection from a previous variant.


"The immunity that they generate is not enough to stop you being infected," he said.


He said that over time, experts hope that as new variants come along, the population is more able to deal with them because of past infections or vaccination……


On the 24th of this month The Sydney Morning Herald reported that:


Researchers investigating long COVID cases in Australia say 5 per cent of people infected with COVID-19 will develop the condition. The prevalence of long COVID before vaccinations were available was an estimated 10 per cent.


The 55,000 people in Australia who tested positive today ... equates to 2000 to 3000 new cases of long COVID,” Kovacic said. To date, Australia has recorded almost 9 million COVID-19 cases.


Even after accounting for reinfection “we’re looking at almost half a million people who are going to be suffering long-term symptoms in the coming months”, Kovacic said.


The Guardian newspaper reported on 27 July 2022 that a serosurvey of antibodies to the virus detected in blood donations, conducted at the Kirby Institute and the National Centre for Immunisation Research and Surveillance (NCIRS), had found that in 5,139 blood donations received from adults between 9 June and 18 June evidence of past COVID-19 infection was detected in 46.2% of samples. A previous examination of blood donors in late February 2022 had found evidence of past infection in only 17% of blood donors.


Noni Winkler, an author of the findings and an epidemiologist at the NCIRS, said the sample size was large enough to reflect rates of the virus in the broader adult population. It should be noted that seroprevalence estimates may miss approximately 20% of infections.


According to the federal Dept. of Health, as of Thursday 27 July 2022 there were est. 373,868 confirmed active COVID-19 cases across Australia. A total of 499,566 of these cases were newly confirmed within the previous 24 hours.


At that point 5,364 COVID-19 infected people were hospitalised, with 145 in intensive care units including 38 patients requiring ventilation.


The national daily COVID-19 death toll on 27 July was 126 people.


By 27 July the cumulative total of confirmed COVID-19 cases stood at 9,235,014 – a figure that can only be described as a massive under reporting of the actual number of infected individuals between 25 January 2020 to 27 July 2022.


The cumulative total of confirmed deaths due to COVID-19 for the same time period is 11,387 deaths of men, women & children. The federal Dept. of Health records that 14 of these deaths were in children 0 to 9 years of age and est. 8,843 were in people aged 70 to 90+ years of age.


Needless to say, the highest cumulative death tolls up to 27 July are in the east coast mainland states of Victoria (4,433), New South Wales (4,051) and Queensland (1,510).


NSW Dept. of Health as at 4pm on Wednesday. 27 July 2022:








In the December 2021 - January 2022 during a SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant surge period in New South Wales, when the public health response was visibly failing to meet even the most basic needs (information, testing & general support) of people expected to self-manage their COVID-19 infection at home, anecdotal evidence began to surface in Northern NSW that individuals and whole families were no longer reporting the result of RAT tests to NSW Health or seeking PCR testing where it was still available.


It was at that point that official government pandemic statistics in Australia were broken beyond repair as a predictive tool with regard to future pandemic behaviour and, effective federal-state public health strategies withered away in the face of continuously climbing infection and mortality figures in the most populous states.


Monday 25 July 2022

Welcome to the global pandemic that does what big pandemics do, just go on and on and on....

 

CSSE: Global COVID-19 Infections in the 28 days ending 2:20am
on 24 July 2021 
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

 


When thinking of global pandemics there are two historical events which spring to mind, spaced a little over five centuries apart – the Bubonic Plague which included an infection wave known as “The Black Death” and the Influenza Global Pandemic known at the time as “The Spanish Flu”.


When the Bubonic Plague first manifested itself across the Northern Hemisphere it lasted approximately three years in the mid-14th Century and became an unwelcome infectious presence during another four episodes of closely spaced, similar time periods before that century ended. By which time it was thought to have caused the deaths of at least 75 million men, women and children, around one third of the Northern Hemisphere population.


Bubonic Plague never went away as a highly infectious disease capable of reaching epidemic proportions and killing tens of thousands of people during outbreaks, however a better understanding of plagues and modern medicine has kept it relatively contained in recent centuries.


The Influenza Global Pandemic of 1918-1920 caused by the 1918 Influenza H1N1 virus was of shorter duration than the plague but appears to have come in three waves across the one event. It is estimated that about 500 million of the world’s population became infected with this virus resulting in est. 50 million deaths. There are similar Influenza A(H1N1) viruses in existence today.


Right now in 2022 the world is halfway through the third year of the COVID-19 Global Pandemic and, due to four significant and increasingly infectious variants of SARS-CoV-2 developing and spreading around the world, there appears no end in sight to its pandemic status in the near future.


According to the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore USA, as of 4:20pm on Sunday 24 July 2022 there were 25,973,159 new COVID-19 cases recorded world-wide in the last 28 days with 55,140 deaths caused by the virus in the same period. That brings the total global cumulative infection count to est. 569,644,897 men, women and children including 6,383,484 deaths.


Again, according to CSSE, Australia recorded 1,103,009 new COVID-19 cases in the 28 days up to 4:20pm on Sunday 24 July 2022 with 1,490 deaths caused by this viral disease in the same period. That brings Australia’s cumulative infection number since 25 January 2020 to est. 9,103,321 men, women and children including 11,172 deaths.


When it comes to New South Wales, in the 28 days up to 4pm Friday 22 July 2022 NSW Health had recorded 157,460 newly confirmed COVID-19 cases (a deliberate under reporting as it only includes diagnoses by PCR omitting reported RAT results) including est. 497 deaths caused by this viral disease. Bringing the total cumulative infection number since 25 January 2022 to 3,091,157 men, women and children across the state, including 3,996 deaths.


Currently health authorities around Australia are warning that another wave of COVID-19 infections underway which is driven by the Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants and, mainstream media is reporting that almost half a million people who had been infected with COVID-19 recently will possibly develop a post COVID-19 condition aka “Long Covid” in the coming months.


So when will this particular global pandemic end? When WHO identified the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant B.1.1.529 in November 2021 the world seemed to feel quite confident that  we might see an end to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2023.


However, not only did Omicron spread swiftly it began to produce subvariants, including BA.1, BA.2, BA.3, BA.4, BA.5 and descendent lineages. The Omicron variant group also includes BA.1/BA.2 circulating recombinant forms such as XE. WHO emphasizes that these descendant lineages should be monitored as distinct lineages by public health authorities and comparative assessments of their virus characteristics should be undertaken


Given Australian federal and state governments appear to have lost the will to keep in place all public health measures which actively resist the spread of Omicron & its subvariants which now dominate the infection pool, it is difficult to be optimistic about any timeline for an end to the pandemic within Australian borders.


In the 28 days up to 4pm on 23 July 2022 a total of 2,721 people living across the 7 local government areas within the Northern NSW Local Health District (NNSWLHD) have been diagnosed with COVID-19. This is a significant under reporting as it only includes diagnoses by PCR omitting reported RAT results.


This aforementioned figure includes positive diagnoses by PCR testing in:

Tweed Shire – 1,104 cases

Ballina Shire – 613 cases

Lismore City – 347 cases

Clarence Valley – 293 cases

Byron Shire – 177 cases

Richmond Valley – 120 cases

Kyogle Shire – 35 cases

Tenterfield – incidence where there is a shared postcode which includes some Tenterfield residents within NNSWLHD not reported in relevant NSW Health statistical table for this period.


Sunday 8 August 2021

Nationals Senator Matt Canavan from Yeppoon near Rockhampton shows his distasteful and offensive political persona to the world


From 25 January 2020 when the national confirmed cases count began in Australia to 15 June 2021 (the day before the Delta Variant outbreak began) the COVID-19 pandemic had infected 30,274 individuals, At that point 910 people or 3 per cent of all those infected had died.


www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/2021/06/coronavirus-covid-19-at-a-glance-15-june-2021.pdf

















New South Wales was in Day 51 of the Delta Variant Outbreak with 4,610 people having been infected between 16 June to 5 August 2021 and 22 people dead as a result, when The Financial Review published the results of sums done on the back of an envelope by former & short-lived Executive at KPMG, former & short-lived Director at Productivity Commission, former Chief of Staff to Barnaby Joyce & a current Nationals Senator for Qld, Matt Canavan (left).



In this opinion piece Canavan states that; Each life saved by the Sydney lockdown costs $330 million. It’s an unjustifiable expense that imposes large and disproportionate burdens on small business and the less well off. [my yellow highlighting]



The reason for this "Sydney lockdown" is hard to ignore. On 16 June 2021 the NSW SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant Outbreak began with 2 daily cases of local community transmission reported. On 13 July NSW Health reported 97 daily cases of community transmission and at the end of the month that number had risen to 239 cases of community transmission reported in the last 24 hours. On 5 August there were 291 daily cases of community transmission reported and the cumulative number of confirmed locally acquired COVID-19 infections had risen by 4,610 people since the outbreak began, including 22 who had died from this variant infection. However, Canavan does his best to ignore those particular numbers. 



Leaving his dodgy costings aside, Canavan appears to firmly believe Scott Morrison’s position that the best way forward to ‘open up’ the economy and he wants us all to learn to live with the SARS-CoV-2 virus despite low vaccination rates.



Or as he expressed himself on 5 August; We should end the lockdowns and replace them with sensible social distancing requirements and testing and tracing.



All his latest opinion piece proves is that Canavan did not understand the implications of what little he actually read in The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity modelling report.



It was made very clear that the report assigns a Transmission Potential (TP) to the Delta Variant of 3.6. It is also observed in its pages that the ability to reduce this variant’s TP to less than 1 needs both to contain community transmission in the current suppression phase (A) and to prevent cases from exceeding health sector capacity in phase B. Currently personal risk reduction behaviours and constraints on social mixing known as Public Health and Social Measures (PHSM) are the levers employed to manage TP in response to incursions and outbreaks [Doherty Modelling Report for National Cabinet 30 July 2021, pp. 7, 10].



However, the report also points out that in the four scenarios with only baseline levels of social and behavioural restrictions in place (ie minimal density/capacity restrictions), epidemic growth is still expected at the yet to be reached 50%, 60%, 70% and 80% national vaccine coverage. In these scenarios reduced effectiveness of the public health ‘test, trace, isolate, quarantine’ (TTIQ) response is anticipated due to high caseloads [Doherty Modelling Report for National Cabinet 30 July 2021, p.10].



In all four vaccination scenarios coming out of lockdown and having only baseline density/capacity restrictions operating across the population, leaves Australia still facing a predominately Delta Variant epidemic. One where the Transmission Potential is likely to be a problematic 2.0, due in part to fading of vaccine efficacy in vaccinated individuals and the need to rollout a national vaccine booster program – which on past performance will possibly be as chaotic as the original vaccine rollout.



The vacillating Morrison Government's two most favoured vaccination coverage scenarios now appear to be the 70% and 80% of all adults. These graphs show epidemic growth to 180 days given transition to Phase B leading to established community transmission:


Epidemic growth to 180 days given transition to Phase B leading to established community transmission for the threshold coverage targets of 70 and 80%, with vaccine allocation according to the ‘All adults’ strategy  [Doherty Modelling Report for National Cabinet 30 July 2021p.14]












This is not helping Australia’s economy get back on its feet in the foreseeable future. Neither is it likely to reduce the real cost to federal and state governments or to society generally of this COVID-19 global pandemic.



The Australian Treasury has costed nationally applied Strict public health order restrictions to cost $3.2 billon a week. Mild nationally applied restrictions are costed at $2.35 billion a week, Low restrictions at $0.65 billion and Baseline at $0.1 billion a week.



Treasury’s financial analysis of the four vaccination scenarios in the Doherty Institute modelling report appears somewhat superficial  - given it refused to model the economic implications of predicted overstretched test, trace and quarantine systems in order to produce these optimistic key findings for the National Cabinet:


  • Continuing to minimise the number of COVID-19 cases, by taking early and strong action in response to outbreaks of the Delta variant, is consistently more cost effective than allowing higher levels of community transmission, which ultimately requires longer and more costly lockdowns.


  • As vaccination rates rise, significantly less lockdowns and other restrictions will be required to continue to minimise cases of COVID-19, reducing the economic cost of managing the virus.


      • Moderate or strict lockdowns are still expected to be necessary to continue minimising outbreaks until Australia reaches 70 per cent vaccination rates for Australian adults (16+). As a result, the costs of managing COVID-19 will remain high.


  • At 50 per cent vaccination rates, and based on the assumptions outlined in this paper, the direct economic cost of minimising cases is estimated to be around $570m per week. At 60 per cent, the estimated cost remains high, but falls to around $430m per week.


  • Once 70 per cent of Australian adults (16+) are vaccinated, and assuming the spread of COVID-19 is minimised, it is expected that outbreaks can be contained using only low level restrictions, with lockdowns unlikely to be necessary. This will significantly reduce the expected economic cost of COVID-19 management to around $200m per week.


  • At 80 per cent vaccination rates, these direct economic costs are expected to fall further still, to around $140m per week, and costs are lower under all scenarios.


  • Treasury has not modelled the economic costs of a severe and widespread outbreak that breaches Australia’s health system capacity. It is expected that such a situation would carry very significant economic costs. International experience indicates that it would lead to significant behavioural changes regardless of the level of official restrictions, and longer outbreaks. [my yellow highlighting]



From 25 January 2020 to 5 August 2021 the national percentage of confirmed COVID-19 deaths was 2.63 per cent of the infected population or 927 people. During that same period the NSW percentage of confirmed COVID-19 deaths was 0.77 per cent of the infected state population or 79 people.



Senator Canavan can play with all these numbers all he likes, it doesn’t make his devaluing of potential lives saved and actual lives lost any less distasteful nor make his ‘politiking’ any less offensive.