COVID-19 STATE OF PLAY AUSTRALIA 2024: "the mortality experience" in an epoch of obfuscation

 

ACTUARIES INSTITUTE, Mortality Working Group, 12 September 2024:

Mortality in First Five Months of 2024 Was Slightly Higher than Prediction

In summary:

• Total mortality was 1% higher than the new baseline for the first five months of 2024.

• The mortality experience of 2024 includes higher COVID-19 mortality than predicted from March to May.

• Mortality from the COVID-19 wave that started in April 2024 rose more sharply than predicted and by May had reached a higher level than anticipated.

• For 2024, the Working Group measures mortality relative to 2023, allowing for some mortality improvement and an estimate of COVID-19 mortality (see April 2024 and June 2024 blogs).

Table 1 – Excess deaths in Australia (versus 2023-based expectation) – by cause of death for January to May 2024

COVID-19 was a much more significant cause of mortality in the first five months of 2024 than influenza (1,610 doctor-certified deaths for COVID-19 versus 144 for influenza).

The last Australian Respiratory Surveillance Report indicated that between 1 January and 22 September 2024 there were a total of 237,001 confirmed COVID-19 infections officially recorded in Australia, with 44 per cent of all cases being with New South Wales.

According to NSW Health from 1 January to 5 October 2024 there were 108,777 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the state, with by far the highest concentration found in Western Sydney at 20,305 confirmed infections (or 19% of all officially recorded cases across NSW).

In relation to COVID-19 deaths, all state and federal departments and agencies have perfected the art of fudging the data by making it difficult to compare across agencies/sources.

However, Australia-wide from 1 January to 31 August 2024 there were 2,943 doctor certified deaths due to COVID-19 respiratory infection [ABS 30.09.24]

The cohort group with the highest mortality numbers appears to be aged care residents, with recorded deaths due to COVID-19 reaching 7,019 individuals between 1 January to 10 October 2024 [Australian Govt. DoH, 11.10.24]

In New South Wales according to ABC News (14.10.24) NSW Ministry of Health data released under freedom of information laws showed 1,729 hospital inpatients catching COVID-19 and 86 dying between January and April this year.

Coalition parties & aged care industry unhappy with federal government proposal to make care providers criminally responsible for abuse and neglect of vulnerable older Australians in their care

 

In 2018 the Morrison Government established the Royal Commission into Aged Care Quality and Safety.

The Royal Commission's Final Report was delivered to the Federal on 1 March 2021. The Summary contained in Volume 1 of the report stated in part;

Over the course of 2019, we heard from many people about substandard care—those who experienced it, family members or loved ones who witnessed it or heard about it, aged care workers, service providers, peak bodies, advocates and experts. We heard about substandard care during hearings and community forums. We also were informed about it in public submissions. Substandard care and abuse pervades the Australian aged care system.

The accounts of substandard care were always sad and confronting. They were no doubt difficult to tell, and very difficult to hear and read. We acknowledge the courage people have shown in sharing their experiences with us. Their contributions have been essential to our inquiry and we are grateful.....

The abuse of older people in residential care is far from uncommon. In 2019–20, residential aged care services reported 5718 allegations of assault under the mandatory reporting requirements of the Aged Care Act. A study conducted by consultancy firm KPMG for the Australian Department of Health estimated that, in the same year, a further 27,000 to 39,000 alleged assaults occurred that were exempt from mandatory reporting because they were resident-on-resident incidents. In our inquiry, we heard of physical and sexual abuse that occurred at the hands of staff members, and of situations in which residential aged care providers did not protect residents from abuse by other residents. This is a disgrace and should be a source of national shame. Older people receiving aged care should be safe and free from abuse at all times......

Commissioner Briggs attached 148 specific recommendations to her final report and it is unclear exactly how many have been acted on to date, apart from the initial response found in the Aged Care and other Legislation Amendment (Royal Commission Response) Act 2021 and the subsequent Albanese Government's Aged Care and Other Legislation Amendment (Royal Commission Response) Bill 2022.

So it should come probably come as no surprise that disturbing media reports were still surfacing in 2023.

May 2023 - a NSW police officer deliberately tasered a 92 year-old woman on a walking frame at the nursing home of which she was a resident. She died of her injuries.

July 2023 - an 89 year-old woman was allegedly bashed to death inside a Sydney nursing home room by a fellow dementia patient with his walking frame. She died of her injuries.

Nov 2023 - A woman in her 90s died in hospital after allegedly being sexually assaulted by an intruder in a nursing home on the New South Wales Central Coast.

Dec 2023 - A woman in her 70s was sexually assaulted in her room at an aged care facility on NSW north coast.

By 13 February 2024 The Guardian was reporting:

More than 1,000 cases of neglect are being reported in residential aged care homes each month, prompting a warning from the sector’s regulator.

The Aged Care Quality and Safety Commission (ACQSC) has flagged “a concerning spike” in neglect cases over the past 12 months and raised concerns about inadequate care standards.

So it was a relief when on 3 April 2024 the Albanese Government announced in a media release that it will:

• Introduce criminal penalties – including jail time - for dodgy aged care providers who seriously and repeatedly facilitate or cover up abuse and neglect of older Australians, and who deliberately breach the general duty of care they owe to their residents.

• Introduce a new duty of care, owed by providers, to recipients of aged care services, including a compensation regime when the duty is breached. This will create a path for class actions against dodgy providers.

• Create a new aged care complaints commissioner, to ensure complaints against providers are properly and thoroughly dealt with.

• Introduce new civil penalties for aged care providers who punish aged care workers, residents and families in retaliation for complaints.

• Give stronger investigative powers to the Aged Care Quality and Safety Commission, including powers to enter and remain in an aged care facility at any time to ensure the safety of residents, as well as full access to documents and records.

• Introduce measures to ensure the 215 minutes of care and nursing that Labor has pledged per resident per day is actually spent on care and clinical support - not on marketing, administration, maintenance or other activities that are not direct care.

• Require providers to publicly report on the expenditure of residents’ and taxpayers’ money – including a breakdown of money spent on caring, nursing, food, maintenance, cleaning, administration, and profits....

These measures implement and build on the Royal Commission recommendation to establish a General Duty of Care for aged care – which will set minimum standards to protect residents and workers....

However, it seems that the Albanese Government's plans to reform the dysfunctional aged care system have met with political headwinds.....

The Saturday Paper, 13 July 2024, "Criminal penalties proposed for aged care bosses", excerpt:

The Serious Incident Response Scheme (SIRS) – instigated after the royal commission to track and reduce the frequency of major incidents, including unreasonable use of force, neglect, psychological and emotional abuse, unlawful or inappropriate sexual conduct, stealing or financial coercion, inappropriate use of restrictive practices and unexpected death – came into force in April 2021 in residential settings. In December 2022 it was added for home care. This scheme, which asks providers to self-report serious incidents, has shown concerning levels of delusion and dishonesty among providers.

In the most recent SIRS figures, providers self-assessed that of the 2257 incidents of unlawful or inappropriate sexual contact in Australian nursing homes from April 2022 to March 2023, 95 per cent of residents affected had experienced no or only minor psychological impacts. Put another way, providers reported that only 5 per cent of aged-care residents who experienced serious and unlawful sexual contact or conduct have had major psychological impacts afterwards.

In the same report, providers self-assessed that of the 28,890 incidents of unreasonable use of force in the same year, 98 per cent of residents had no or minor psychological impact and 92 per cent had no or only minor physical impact. In the scheme’s first six months of operation, 75 per cent of the nation’s home-care providers had not reported a single serious incident of any kind to the aged-care regulator.

These figures reveal a sector that is still fundamentally in denial about its own performance and the effects of abuse and neglect on older Australians in its care.

Now, as the federal government attempts to muster bipartisan support for its new act, the aged-care lobby is circling its wagons again, this time to fiercely oppose the government’s proposed imposition of a statutory duty of care on aged-care providers and responsible persons that could result in civil and criminal penalties, including potential jail time in especially egregious cases.....

Nonetheless, providers, peak bodies, the Australian Institute for Company Directors and shadow minister for aged care Anne Ruston have all come out swinging at the proposed introduction of criminal penalties. 

They claim the penalties will lead to vast increases in insurances for directors, are unnecessarily punitive and will discourage good people from working in the aged-care sector. This is a bit like arguing we shouldn’t have child-abuse laws or require police checks to work with children as that might stop good people from opening kindergartens.

The extraordinary optics of arguing against criminal penalties – even in cases where there is no reasonable excuse for failures of care that have led to death or serious injury – seems to be lost on providers and the federal opposition.

COVID-19 NSW 2023: Counting Dead People Part 5

 

 

The COVID dead are not published over Easter as Australia enjoys a four day break, so most of the data in this post doesn't go beyond 6 - 7 April 2023. 

Between 31 March and 6 April 2023 there were 9,876 newly confirmed COVID-19 infections recorded in New South Wales.

A total of 952 COVID-19 cases had been hospitalised with 20 in intensive care unit. Note: Between 27 March and 2 April 2023 NSW Health records show 46.6% of those admitted with COVID-19 infections had received 4 or more vaccination doses. As of 1 April XBB and its sub-lineages were the dominant variant group in community cases. This includes XBB.1.5, XBB.1.16 and XBB.1.9.

Another 36 people had died as a result of COVID-19 infection in the 7 days up to 6 April 2023. NOTE: There is no published data on gender, age or area health service published for this group to date. However, given past NSW Respiratory Surveillance Report data it is like between 1-3 people died in the Northern River region and that they were in the oldest age groupings.

Of those people newly infected during this 7 day period, est. 220 lived in the NSW Northern Rivers region.

NOTE: Given that NSW Health in its 4-week tables only publishes local government area infection statistics for people who tested positive by way of a PCR test and in the Northern Rivers region around half the people being tested rely on the Rapid Antigen Test (RAT) to confirm COVID-19 infection, the following numbers for the 7 local government areas in NE NSW are significant underestimates of total positive tests.

Northern NSW COVID-19 Infection in 4 weeks up to 7 April 2023:

Tweed Shire — 142 cases across postcodes 2484, 2485, 2486, 2487, 2488, 2489, 2490; 

Byron Shire — 31 cases across postcodes 2479, 2481, 2482, 2483,

Ballina Shire — 57 cases across postcodes 2477, 2478, 

Lismore City — 24 cases across postcodes 2472, 2480; 

Kyogle — 5 cases in postcode 2474;

Richmond Valley — 7 cases across postcodes 2469, 2470, 2471, 2473;

Clarence Valley — 32 cases across postcodes 2460, 2462, 2463, 2464, 2465;

Note: These postcodes are based on Data NSW COVID-19 cases datasets

Covid Live calculated that between 1 January 2020 and 8 April 2023 a total of 3,952,896 men, women and children resident in New South Wales are known to have been infected by SARS-CoV-2 or one of its variants and contracted COVID-19.

According to NSW Health total deaths due to COVID-19 in New South Wales since the beginning of the pandemic are est. 6,634 men, women and children. An estimated 31% of all these deaths occurred in the 12 months & 13 days between 24 March 2022 and 6 April 2023.

Actuaries Australia published the latest excess death rate for Australia and its states and territories which was calculated at the end of 2022. That excess death rate was 12% for Australia representing 20,000 excess deaths, and 12% for NSW in which state that represented 6,600 excess deaths.

Actuaries Australia, Actuaries Digital, 6 April 2023:

Overall summary of excess mortality in 2022

We estimate that there were just over 20,000 (12%) more deaths in Australia in 2022 than we would have expected if there had been no pandemic. Excess mortality is widely regarded as the best measure of the overall impact of a pandemic since it includes deaths both directly and indirectly due to the disease.

Of the 20,200 excess deaths in 2022, we estimate that:

• 10,300 deaths (51%) were from COVID-19;

• 2,900 deaths (15%) were COVID-19 related, meaning that COVID-19 contributed to the death; and

• 7,000 deaths (34%) had no mention of COVID-19 on the death certificate.

Deaths from COVID-19 are those where COVID-19 is given as the underlying cause of death on the death certificate. Deaths from COVID-19 were the third leading cause of death in Australia in 2022. The main reason why the numbers do not match those derived from surveillance reports is that the latter includes almost all cases[1] where people had COVID-19 when they died. Reported surveillance deaths will include deaths from COVID-19, deaths that were COVID-19 related and other deaths where the doctor/coroner has determined that COVID-19 was incidental and had no role in the death of the person.

For most of the underlying causes of death reported on by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), the share of COVID-19 related deaths in 2022 is similar to the share of all non-COVID-19 deaths. The exceptions to this are dementia (which is over-represented in COVID-19 related deaths as frail dementia sufferers are also particularly vulnerable to COVID-19), respiratory disease (under-represented as COVID-19 is more likely to determined to be the underlying cause rather than a contributing cause) and coroner-referred deaths (under-represented, but the position could change as coroner findings are made).

It is unclear how close we are to reaching an endemic state when the impact of COVID-19 on mortality will become (more) predictable. Figure 2 shows that the latest wave of COVID-19 deaths continued in January 2023 (estimated at just over 1,000 deaths) but had ended by February 2023 (similar to the lowest month of 2022 at around 350 deaths).

The death certificates of about one-third of excess deaths in 2022 had no mention of COVID-19. These non-COVID-19 deaths represent excess mortality of 4%, which is extraordinarily high in itself, as can be seen in Figure 1. Non-COVID-19 excess deaths are particularly apparent in those aged over 75 for both genders and those aged under 65 for females only. We consider that the most likely reasons for these excess deaths are:

• The impact of COVID-19 on subsequent mortality risk, particularly heart disease, stroke, diabetes and dementia, which have all been identified in studies;

• Delays in emergency care, particularly at times of high prevalence of COVID-19 and/or influenza; and

• Delays in routine care, which refers to missed opportunities to diagnose or treat non-COVID-19 diseases and the likelihood of consequent higher mortality from those conditions in future. We understand that disrupted prescription of medications may be particularly likely to be a major risk factor for those with chronic heart disease….

Leading causes of death

The ABS reports on the top 20 leading causes of death by grouping deaths based on their International Classification of Diseases, version 10 (ICD-10) code. Cancers are grouped based on the region of the body rather than included as a whole. In this section, we assess where COVID-19 sits in terms of leading causes of death in Australia and have followed the ABS classification system.

We have estimated deaths for the leading causes for 2022. To do this, we have:

• Taken doctor-certified deaths by cause to 31 December as shown in Table 1;

• Included an allowance for coroner-referred deaths (using the historical ratio of doctor-certified to coroner-referred deaths); and

• For the leading cancer causes, we have estimated deaths from all cancers and then assumed lung cancers and colon cancers make up 18% and 12% respectively of all cancer deaths. These proportions have been stable over the recent period examined.

Click on image to enlarge

With around 10,300 deaths from COVID-19 in 2022, this puts COVID-19 as the third leading cause of death….

Excess deaths to 31 December 2022 by State/Territory

Table 3 shows our estimate of excess deaths by state/territory, before and after deducting from COVID-19 and COVID-19 related deaths.

Click on image to enlarge

In 2022, all states/territories apart from NT had significant levels of excess mortality ranging from 10% to 16% of predicted. Generally, about half of this is due to deaths from COVID-19, with another 1-2% due to COVID-19 related deaths......

In 2022:

• Queensland had a large peak in non-COVID excess deaths in the middle of the year (at the time of flu and COVID-19 waves). NSW had a smaller peak at this time, but Victoria did not have a similar peak; and

• Barring the winter peaks for NSW and Queensland, Victoria’s non-COVID-19 excess has tended to be higher than the other two large states…...

Read the full article here.

COVID-19 NSW State Of Play 2023: Counting Dead People - Part 4

IMAGE: www1.racgp.org.au

According to the World Health Organisation (WHO) Omicron variants of SARS-CoV-2 remain the currently circulating variants of concern.

By the end of February 2023 the SARS-CoV-2 sequences by variant pool found in Australia were estimated at 24.46% Omicron (BA 2.75), 1.09% Omicron (BA.5),13.59% Omicron (BQ.1), 3.26% Omicron (XBB), 26.63% Omicron (XBB1.5) and 30.98% recombinant variants. NOTE: Only a fraction of all cases are sequenced and Recently-discovered or actively-monitored variants may be overrepresented, as suspected cases of these variants are likely to be sequenced preferentially or faster than other cases [Our World Of Data, 5 March 2023].

In the 7 days up to 25 February 2023 in NSW South Wales a total of 48 people were recorded as having died from COVID-19.

Of these 26 were adult men and 22 were adult women.

Two of the dead were in the 40-49 year age group and the other 46 deceased individuals were aged between 70 years of age & 90+ years.

Three of the dead were from the Northern Rivers region, which in that 7 day period had seen 223 local residents recorded as newly infected with COVID-19.

In the 7 days up to 2 March 2023 an est. 213 Northern Rivers residents were recorded as newly infected with COVID-19. 

NOTE: NSW COVID-19 data is held at multiple points on the NSW Government’s online public access health data site/s. For reasons best known to itself these sites rarely use identical time periods for their published summaries. This means there is a 2 day overlap in the two 7 day periods for the Northern Rivers which renders the infection number for 2 March an estimate. As yet no deaths have been published for local health district for these particular 7 days.

Over the 12 days from 19 February to 2 March 2023 multiple confirmed cases of COVID-19 were reported in the following Northern Rivers local government areas:

• Tweed Shire – postcodes 2484, 2485, 2486, 2487, 2488, 2489;

• Kyogle Shire – postcodes 2474;

• Ballina Shire – postcodes 2477, 2478;

• Byron Shire – postcodes 2479, 2480, 2481, 2482, 2483;

• Lismore City – postcodes 2472, 2480;

• Richmond Valley – postcodes 2469, 2470, 2471, 2473, ; and

• Clarence Valley – postcodes 2460, 2462, 2463, 2464, 2465, 2466.

State-wide in NSW in the 7 days up to 2 March 2023 a total of 7,163 new cases of COVID-19 infection were recorded With 800 infected people hospitalised and a total of 29 deaths recorded.

At that point in time (2 March 2023) the total number of COVID-19 cases recorded in NSW since the pandemic began in January-February 2020 had reached est. 3,907,940 people infected, of which 6,493 have been recorded as dying as a result of contracting the viral infection.

By 3 March 2023 the cumulative total of COVID-19 deaths Australia-wide had reached est. 19,459 men, women and children.

The recorded cumulative number of people infected with the virus, as well as those dying as a result of infection, continues to rise in what is now the fourth year of uncontrolled viral infection spread in the general populace.

Sources:

NSW Health

Data NSW

covidlive.com.au

Our World In Data

WHO

COVID-19 NSW STATE OF PLAY 2023: Counting Dead People

 

The NSW Perrottet Government publishes a very basic update of COVID-19 infection statistics once every 7 days and it releases a weekly epidemiological report whenever it feels in the mood.

So the only NSW Respiratory Surveillance Report-weekly epidemiology summary currently available which contains data on new infections, hospitalisation and basic mortality demographics, only covers the period 1-7 January 2023.

In that particular 7 days only two out of the 15 state local health districts did not record a death due to COVID-19, these were the Far West and Northern NSW.

Of the total 92 deaths of people (aged between 30-39 years & 90+ years) recorded between 1-7 January, 36 were aged care residents (14 of these people died in hospital and 22 died at an aged care facility), 7 people diagnosed with COVID-19 prior to death died at home and presumably the remaining 49 died in local public hospitals.

The following graphics show that while infection and hospitalisation numbers are falling in the first three weeks of 2023 the death toll continues to mount.

 

Graphics via @NSWHealth

 

The total number of deaths included in these four graphs represent 352 people.

The Sydney Morning Herald, 21 January 2023:

Everyone dies. But last year in NSW, far more people than usual did. Every single week up to September, dozens more deaths were reported than the state’s average. The cause is no secret: a rapidly ageing population combined with the ongoing impact of the pandemic.

But behind those numbers stands a colossal and often misunderstood industry that deals with everything from palliative care and burials to cremation and counselling.

And under immense pressure, 2022 changed it forever.

Crematorium operators spent the year dealing with a “high volume” of requests, funeral directors have been forced to increase their services and, as if to prove bureaucracy stays with you to the grave, the city’s cemeteries are set to be full within 10 years.

Guardian Funerals, a giant provider of funerals across the state, said they assisted “more families than ever before in 2022 and as we have commenced 2023, there continues to be an increased demand for our services.”….. [my yellow highlighting]

It’s only now, after a few years of increased focus on dying, that the public is experiencing what those in the industry have known for decades: when it comes to dealing with death, Sydney is headed for a crisis.

The question has to be asked. How many of the more than 9.23 million people who caught COVID-19 in the last 2 years and five months will have their lives diminished or shortened by chronic post-COVID health conditions?

It is time Australian society stops pretending it is on top of this pandemic.......

ABC News, 28 July 2022:

NSW Health looked at data from 639,430 people infected with COVID for the first time in January when the Omicron wave took off.

The analysis was done by matching the name, and date of birth, of cases.

It showed that within five months, 20,460 people, or 3.2 per cent, had been reinfected.

Reinfection was defined as a positive test four weeks after being released from seven-day isolation, or 36 days after testing positive.

More than 20,000 people reinfected with COVID within five months

Number and proportion of the 639,403 cases in January reinfected in subsequent months

…..Nick Wood, a paediatrician and immunisation expert from the University of Sydney, said in theory, the first exposure to COVID should give some natural immunity that would stop people getting as sick the second time around.

"Your prior immunological exposure, natural infection and vaccine history all probably plays into how you as the individual deal with your second infection," he said.

People who were immune-suppressed or who had ongoing respiratory problems from the first infection would be more impacted with subsequent infections, he said.

"That's all the difficulties in teasing it out how severe, but I think the general, the belief is that the second or third infection are probably less severe than the initial primary infection."

Dr Wood said the BA.4 and BA.5 sub-variants of Omicron were able to evade both vaccine-induced immunity and infection from a previous variant.

"The immunity that they generate is not enough to stop you being infected," he said.

He said that over time, experts hope that as new variants come along, the population is more able to deal with them because of past infections or vaccination……

On the 24th of this month The Sydney Morning Herald reported that:

Researchers investigating long COVID cases in Australia say 5 per cent of people infected with COVID-19 will develop the condition. The prevalence of long COVID before vaccinations were available was an estimated 10 per cent.

“The 55,000 people in Australia who tested positive today ... equates to 2000 to 3000 new cases of long COVID,” Kovacic said. To date, Australia has recorded almost 9 million COVID-19 cases.

Even after accounting for reinfection “we’re looking at almost half a million people who are going to be suffering long-term symptoms in the coming months”, Kovacic said.

The Guardian newspaper reported on 27 July 2022 that a serosurvey of antibodies to the virus detected in blood donations, conducted at the Kirby Institute and the National Centre for Immunisation Research and Surveillance (NCIRS), had found that in 5,139 blood donations received from adults between 9 June and 18 June evidence of past COVID-19 infection was detected in 46.2% of samples. A previous examination of blood donors in late February 2022 had found evidence of past infection in only 17% of blood donors.

Noni Winkler, an author of the findings and an epidemiologist at the NCIRS, said the sample size was large enough to reflect rates of the virus in the broader adult population. It should be noted that seroprevalence estimates may miss approximately 20% of infections.

According to the federal Dept. of Health, as of Thursday 27 July 2022 there were est. 373,868 confirmed active COVID-19 cases across Australia. A total of 499,566 of these cases were newly confirmed within the previous 24 hours.

At that point 5,364 COVID-19 infected people were hospitalised, with 145 in intensive care units including 38 patients requiring ventilation.

The national daily COVID-19 death toll on 27 July was 126 people.

By 27 July the cumulative total of confirmed COVID-19 cases stood at 9,235,014 – a figure that can only be described as a massive under reporting of the actual number of infected individuals between 25 January 2020 to 27 July 2022.

The cumulative total of confirmed deaths due to COVID-19 for the same time period is 11,387 deaths of men, women & children. The federal Dept. of Health records that 14 of these deaths were in children 0 to 9 years of age and est. 8,843 were in people aged 70 to 90+ years of age.

Needless to say, the highest cumulative death tolls up to 27 July are in the east coast mainland states of Victoria (4,433), New South Wales (4,051) and Queensland (1,510).

NSW Dept. of Health as at 4pm on Wednesday. 27 July 2022:

In the December 2021 - January 2022 during a SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant surge period in New South Wales, when the public health response was visibly failing to meet even the most basic needs (information, testing & general support) of people expected to self-manage their COVID-19 infection at home, anecdotal evidence began to surface in Northern NSW that individuals and whole families were no longer reporting the result of RAT tests to NSW Health or seeking PCR testing where it was still available.

It was at that point that official government pandemic statistics in Australia were broken beyond repair as a predictive tool with regard to future pandemic behaviour and, effective federal-state public health strategies withered away in the face of continuously climbing infection and mortality figures in the most populous states.

Welcome to the global pandemic that does what big pandemics do, just go on and on and on....

 

CSSE: Global COVID-19 Infections in the 28 days ending 2:20am

on 24 July 2021 

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

 

When thinking of global pandemics there are two historical events which spring to mind, spaced a little over five centuries apart – the Bubonic Plague which included an infection wave known as “The Black Death” and the Influenza Global Pandemic known at the time as “The Spanish Flu”.

When the Bubonic Plague first manifested itself across the Northern Hemisphere it lasted approximately three years in the mid-14th Century and became an unwelcome infectious presence during another four episodes of closely spaced, similar time periods before that century ended. By which time it was thought to have caused the deaths of at least 75 million men, women and children, around one third of the Northern Hemisphere population.

Bubonic Plague never went away as a highly infectious disease capable of reaching epidemic proportions and killing tens of thousands of people during outbreaks, however a better understanding of plagues and modern medicine has kept it relatively contained in recent centuries.

The Influenza Global Pandemic of 1918-1920 caused by the 1918 Influenza H1N1 virus was of shorter duration than the plague but appears to have come in three waves across the one event. It is estimated that about 500 million of the world’s population became infected with this virus resulting in est. 50 million deaths. There are similar Influenza A(H1N1) viruses in existence today.

Right now in 2022 the world is halfway through the third year of the COVID-19 Global Pandemic and, due to four significant and increasingly infectious variants of SARS-CoV-2 developing and spreading around the world, there appears no end in sight to its pandemic status in the near future.

According to the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore USA, as of 4:20pm on Sunday 24 July 2022 there were 25,973,159 new COVID-19 cases recorded world-wide in the last 28 days with 55,140 deaths caused by the virus in the same period. That brings the total global cumulative infection count to est. 569,644,897 men, women and children including 6,383,484 deaths.

Again, according to CSSE, Australia recorded 1,103,009 new COVID-19 cases in the 28 days up to 4:20pm on Sunday 24 July 2022 with 1,490 deaths caused by this viral disease in the same period. That brings Australia’s cumulative infection number since 25 January 2020 to est. 9,103,321 men, women and children including 11,172 deaths.

When it comes to New South Wales, in the 28 days up to 4pm Friday 22 July 2022 NSW Health had recorded 157,460 newly confirmed COVID-19 cases (a deliberate under reporting as it only includes diagnoses by PCR omitting reported RAT results) including est. 497 deaths caused by this viral disease. Bringing the total cumulative infection number since 25 January 2022 to 3,091,157 men, women and children across the state, including 3,996 deaths.

Currently health authorities around Australia are warning that another wave of COVID-19 infections underway which is driven by the Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants and, mainstream media is reporting that almost half a million people who had been infected with COVID-19 recently will possibly develop a post COVID-19 condition aka “Long Covid” in the coming months.

So when will this particular global pandemic end? When WHO identified the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant B.1.1.529 in November 2021 the world seemed to feel quite confident that  we might see an end to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2023.

However, not only did Omicron spread swiftly it began to produce subvariants, including BA.1, BA.2, BA.3, BA.4, BA.5 and descendent lineages. The Omicron variant group also includes BA.1/BA.2 circulating recombinant forms such as XE. WHO emphasizes that these descendant lineages should be monitored as distinct lineages by public health authorities and comparative assessments of their virus characteristics should be undertaken. 

Given Australian federal and state governments appear to have lost the will to keep in place all public health measures which actively resist the spread of Omicron & its subvariants which now dominate the infection pool, it is difficult to be optimistic about any timeline for an end to the pandemic within Australian borders.

In the 28 days up to 4pm on 23 July 2022 a total of 2,721 people living across the 7 local government areas within the Northern NSW Local Health District (NNSWLHD) have been diagnosed with COVID-19. This is a significant under reporting as it only includes diagnoses by PCR omitting reported RAT results.

This aforementioned figure includes positive diagnoses by PCR testing in:

Tweed Shire – 1,104 cases

Ballina Shire – 613 cases

Lismore City – 347 cases

Clarence Valley – 293 cases

Byron Shire – 177 cases

Richmond Valley – 120 cases

Kyogle Shire – 35 cases

Tenterfield – incidence where there is a shared postcode which includes some Tenterfield residents within NNSWLHD not reported in relevant NSW Health statistical table for this period.