ACTUARIES INSTITUTE, Mortality Working Group, 12 September 2024:
Mortality in First Five Months of 2024 Was Slightly Higher than Prediction
In summary:
Total mortality was 1% higher than the new baseline for the first five months of 2024.
The mortality experience of 2024 includes higher COVID-19 mortality than predicted from March to May.
Mortality from the COVID-19 wave that started in April 2024 rose more sharply than predicted and by May had reached a higher level than anticipated.
For 2024, the Working Group measures mortality relative to 2023, allowing for some mortality improvement and an estimate of COVID-19 mortality (see April 2024 and June 2024 blogs).
Table 1 – Excess deaths in Australia (versus 2023-based expectation) – by cause of death for January to May 2024
COVID-19 was a much more significant cause of mortality in the first five months of 2024 than influenza (1,610 doctor-certified deaths for COVID-19 versus 144 for influenza).
The last Australian Respiratory Surveillance Report indicated that between 1 January and 22 September 2024 there were a total of 237,001 confirmed COVID-19 infections officially recorded in Australia, with 44 per cent of all cases being with New South Wales.
According to NSW Health from 1 January to 5 October 2024 there were 108,777 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the state, with by far the highest concentration found in Western Sydney at 20,305 confirmed infections (or 19% of all officially recorded cases across NSW).
In relation to COVID-19 deaths, all state and federal departments and agencies have perfected the art of fudging the data by making it difficult to compare across agencies/sources.
However, Australia-wide from 1 January to 31 August 2024 there were 2,943 doctor certified deaths due to COVID-19 respiratory infection [ABS 30.09.24]
The cohort group with the highest mortality numbers appears to be aged care residents, with recorded deaths due to COVID-19 reaching 7,019 individuals between 1 January to 10 October 2024 [Australian Govt. DoH, 11.10.24]
In New South Wales according to ABC News (14.10.24) NSW Ministry of Health data released under freedom of information laws showed 1,729 hospital inpatients catching COVID-19 and 86 dying between January and April this year.