COVID-19 NSW 2023: Counting Dead People Part 5

 

 

The COVID dead are not published over Easter as Australia enjoys a four day break, so most of the data in this post doesn't go beyond 6 - 7 April 2023. 

Between 31 March and 6 April 2023 there were 9,876 newly confirmed COVID-19 infections recorded in New South Wales.

A total of 952 COVID-19 cases had been hospitalised with 20 in intensive care unit. Note: Between 27 March and 2 April 2023 NSW Health records show 46.6% of those admitted with COVID-19 infections had received 4 or more vaccination doses. As of 1 April XBB and its sub-lineages were the dominant variant group in community cases. This includes XBB.1.5, XBB.1.16 and XBB.1.9.

Another 36 people had died as a result of COVID-19 infection in the 7 days up to 6 April 2023. NOTE: There is no published data on gender, age or area health service published for this group to date. However, given past NSW Respiratory Surveillance Report data it is like between 1-3 people died in the Northern River region and that they were in the oldest age groupings.

Of those people newly infected during this 7 day period, est. 220 lived in the NSW Northern Rivers region.

NOTE: Given that NSW Health in its 4-week tables only publishes local government area infection statistics for people who tested positive by way of a PCR test and in the Northern Rivers region around half the people being tested rely on the Rapid Antigen Test (RAT) to confirm COVID-19 infection, the following numbers for the 7 local government areas in NE NSW are significant underestimates of total positive tests.

Northern NSW COVID-19 Infection in 4 weeks up to 7 April 2023:

Tweed Shire — 142 cases across postcodes 2484, 2485, 2486, 2487, 2488, 2489, 2490; 

Byron Shire — 31 cases across postcodes 2479, 2481, 2482, 2483,

Ballina Shire — 57 cases across postcodes 2477, 2478, 

Lismore City — 24 cases across postcodes 2472, 2480; 

Kyogle — 5 cases in postcode 2474;

Richmond Valley — 7 cases across postcodes 2469, 2470, 2471, 2473;

Clarence Valley — 32 cases across postcodes 2460, 2462, 2463, 2464, 2465;

Note: These postcodes are based on Data NSW COVID-19 cases datasets

Covid Live calculated that between 1 January 2020 and 8 April 2023 a total of 3,952,896 men, women and children resident in New South Wales are known to have been infected by SARS-CoV-2 or one of its variants and contracted COVID-19.

According to NSW Health total deaths due to COVID-19 in New South Wales since the beginning of the pandemic are est. 6,634 men, women and children. An estimated 31% of all these deaths occurred in the 12 months & 13 days between 24 March 2022 and 6 April 2023.

Actuaries Australia published the latest excess death rate for Australia and its states and territories which was calculated at the end of 2022. That excess death rate was 12% for Australia representing 20,000 excess deaths, and 12% for NSW in which state that represented 6,600 excess deaths.

Actuaries Australia, Actuaries Digital, 6 April 2023:

Overall summary of excess mortality in 2022

We estimate that there were just over 20,000 (12%) more deaths in Australia in 2022 than we would have expected if there had been no pandemic. Excess mortality is widely regarded as the best measure of the overall impact of a pandemic since it includes deaths both directly and indirectly due to the disease.

Of the 20,200 excess deaths in 2022, we estimate that:

• 10,300 deaths (51%) were from COVID-19;

• 2,900 deaths (15%) were COVID-19 related, meaning that COVID-19 contributed to the death; and

• 7,000 deaths (34%) had no mention of COVID-19 on the death certificate.

Deaths from COVID-19 are those where COVID-19 is given as the underlying cause of death on the death certificate. Deaths from COVID-19 were the third leading cause of death in Australia in 2022. The main reason why the numbers do not match those derived from surveillance reports is that the latter includes almost all cases[1] where people had COVID-19 when they died. Reported surveillance deaths will include deaths from COVID-19, deaths that were COVID-19 related and other deaths where the doctor/coroner has determined that COVID-19 was incidental and had no role in the death of the person.

For most of the underlying causes of death reported on by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), the share of COVID-19 related deaths in 2022 is similar to the share of all non-COVID-19 deaths. The exceptions to this are dementia (which is over-represented in COVID-19 related deaths as frail dementia sufferers are also particularly vulnerable to COVID-19), respiratory disease (under-represented as COVID-19 is more likely to determined to be the underlying cause rather than a contributing cause) and coroner-referred deaths (under-represented, but the position could change as coroner findings are made).

It is unclear how close we are to reaching an endemic state when the impact of COVID-19 on mortality will become (more) predictable. Figure 2 shows that the latest wave of COVID-19 deaths continued in January 2023 (estimated at just over 1,000 deaths) but had ended by February 2023 (similar to the lowest month of 2022 at around 350 deaths).

The death certificates of about one-third of excess deaths in 2022 had no mention of COVID-19. These non-COVID-19 deaths represent excess mortality of 4%, which is extraordinarily high in itself, as can be seen in Figure 1. Non-COVID-19 excess deaths are particularly apparent in those aged over 75 for both genders and those aged under 65 for females only. We consider that the most likely reasons for these excess deaths are:

• The impact of COVID-19 on subsequent mortality risk, particularly heart disease, stroke, diabetes and dementia, which have all been identified in studies;

• Delays in emergency care, particularly at times of high prevalence of COVID-19 and/or influenza; and

• Delays in routine care, which refers to missed opportunities to diagnose or treat non-COVID-19 diseases and the likelihood of consequent higher mortality from those conditions in future. We understand that disrupted prescription of medications may be particularly likely to be a major risk factor for those with chronic heart disease….

Leading causes of death

The ABS reports on the top 20 leading causes of death by grouping deaths based on their International Classification of Diseases, version 10 (ICD-10) code. Cancers are grouped based on the region of the body rather than included as a whole. In this section, we assess where COVID-19 sits in terms of leading causes of death in Australia and have followed the ABS classification system.

We have estimated deaths for the leading causes for 2022. To do this, we have:

• Taken doctor-certified deaths by cause to 31 December as shown in Table 1;

• Included an allowance for coroner-referred deaths (using the historical ratio of doctor-certified to coroner-referred deaths); and

• For the leading cancer causes, we have estimated deaths from all cancers and then assumed lung cancers and colon cancers make up 18% and 12% respectively of all cancer deaths. These proportions have been stable over the recent period examined.

Click on image to enlarge

With around 10,300 deaths from COVID-19 in 2022, this puts COVID-19 as the third leading cause of death….

Excess deaths to 31 December 2022 by State/Territory

Table 3 shows our estimate of excess deaths by state/territory, before and after deducting from COVID-19 and COVID-19 related deaths.

Click on image to enlarge

In 2022, all states/territories apart from NT had significant levels of excess mortality ranging from 10% to 16% of predicted. Generally, about half of this is due to deaths from COVID-19, with another 1-2% due to COVID-19 related deaths......

In 2022:

• Queensland had a large peak in non-COVID excess deaths in the middle of the year (at the time of flu and COVID-19 waves). NSW had a smaller peak at this time, but Victoria did not have a similar peak; and

• Barring the winter peaks for NSW and Queensland, Victoria’s non-COVID-19 excess has tended to be higher than the other two large states…...

Read the full article here.

COVID-19 NSW STATE OF PLAY 2023: Counting Dead People

 

The NSW Perrottet Government publishes a very basic update of COVID-19 infection statistics once every 7 days and it releases a weekly epidemiological report whenever it feels in the mood.

So the only NSW Respiratory Surveillance Report-weekly epidemiology summary currently available which contains data on new infections, hospitalisation and basic mortality demographics, only covers the period 1-7 January 2023.

In that particular 7 days only two out of the 15 state local health districts did not record a death due to COVID-19, these were the Far West and Northern NSW.

Of the total 92 deaths of people (aged between 30-39 years & 90+ years) recorded between 1-7 January, 36 were aged care residents (14 of these people died in hospital and 22 died at an aged care facility), 7 people diagnosed with COVID-19 prior to death died at home and presumably the remaining 49 died in local public hospitals.

The following graphics show that while infection and hospitalisation numbers are falling in the first three weeks of 2023 the death toll continues to mount.

 

Graphics via @NSWHealth

 

The total number of deaths included in these four graphs represent 352 people.

The Sydney Morning Herald, 21 January 2023:

Everyone dies. But last year in NSW, far more people than usual did. Every single week up to September, dozens more deaths were reported than the state’s average. The cause is no secret: a rapidly ageing population combined with the ongoing impact of the pandemic.

But behind those numbers stands a colossal and often misunderstood industry that deals with everything from palliative care and burials to cremation and counselling.

And under immense pressure, 2022 changed it forever.

Crematorium operators spent the year dealing with a “high volume” of requests, funeral directors have been forced to increase their services and, as if to prove bureaucracy stays with you to the grave, the city’s cemeteries are set to be full within 10 years.

Guardian Funerals, a giant provider of funerals across the state, said they assisted “more families than ever before in 2022 and as we have commenced 2023, there continues to be an increased demand for our services.”….. [my yellow highlighting]

It’s only now, after a few years of increased focus on dying, that the public is experiencing what those in the industry have known for decades: when it comes to dealing with death, Sydney is headed for a crisis.

Welcome to the global pandemic that does what big pandemics do, just go on and on and on....

 

CSSE: Global COVID-19 Infections in the 28 days ending 2:20am

on 24 July 2021 

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

 

When thinking of global pandemics there are two historical events which spring to mind, spaced a little over five centuries apart – the Bubonic Plague which included an infection wave known as “The Black Death” and the Influenza Global Pandemic known at the time as “The Spanish Flu”.

When the Bubonic Plague first manifested itself across the Northern Hemisphere it lasted approximately three years in the mid-14th Century and became an unwelcome infectious presence during another four episodes of closely spaced, similar time periods before that century ended. By which time it was thought to have caused the deaths of at least 75 million men, women and children, around one third of the Northern Hemisphere population.

Bubonic Plague never went away as a highly infectious disease capable of reaching epidemic proportions and killing tens of thousands of people during outbreaks, however a better understanding of plagues and modern medicine has kept it relatively contained in recent centuries.

The Influenza Global Pandemic of 1918-1920 caused by the 1918 Influenza H1N1 virus was of shorter duration than the plague but appears to have come in three waves across the one event. It is estimated that about 500 million of the world’s population became infected with this virus resulting in est. 50 million deaths. There are similar Influenza A(H1N1) viruses in existence today.

Right now in 2022 the world is halfway through the third year of the COVID-19 Global Pandemic and, due to four significant and increasingly infectious variants of SARS-CoV-2 developing and spreading around the world, there appears no end in sight to its pandemic status in the near future.

According to the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore USA, as of 4:20pm on Sunday 24 July 2022 there were 25,973,159 new COVID-19 cases recorded world-wide in the last 28 days with 55,140 deaths caused by the virus in the same period. That brings the total global cumulative infection count to est. 569,644,897 men, women and children including 6,383,484 deaths.

Again, according to CSSE, Australia recorded 1,103,009 new COVID-19 cases in the 28 days up to 4:20pm on Sunday 24 July 2022 with 1,490 deaths caused by this viral disease in the same period. That brings Australia’s cumulative infection number since 25 January 2020 to est. 9,103,321 men, women and children including 11,172 deaths.

When it comes to New South Wales, in the 28 days up to 4pm Friday 22 July 2022 NSW Health had recorded 157,460 newly confirmed COVID-19 cases (a deliberate under reporting as it only includes diagnoses by PCR omitting reported RAT results) including est. 497 deaths caused by this viral disease. Bringing the total cumulative infection number since 25 January 2022 to 3,091,157 men, women and children across the state, including 3,996 deaths.

Currently health authorities around Australia are warning that another wave of COVID-19 infections underway which is driven by the Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants and, mainstream media is reporting that almost half a million people who had been infected with COVID-19 recently will possibly develop a post COVID-19 condition aka “Long Covid” in the coming months.

So when will this particular global pandemic end? When WHO identified the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant B.1.1.529 in November 2021 the world seemed to feel quite confident that  we might see an end to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2023.

However, not only did Omicron spread swiftly it began to produce subvariants, including BA.1, BA.2, BA.3, BA.4, BA.5 and descendent lineages. The Omicron variant group also includes BA.1/BA.2 circulating recombinant forms such as XE. WHO emphasizes that these descendant lineages should be monitored as distinct lineages by public health authorities and comparative assessments of their virus characteristics should be undertaken. 

Given Australian federal and state governments appear to have lost the will to keep in place all public health measures which actively resist the spread of Omicron & its subvariants which now dominate the infection pool, it is difficult to be optimistic about any timeline for an end to the pandemic within Australian borders.

In the 28 days up to 4pm on 23 July 2022 a total of 2,721 people living across the 7 local government areas within the Northern NSW Local Health District (NNSWLHD) have been diagnosed with COVID-19. This is a significant under reporting as it only includes diagnoses by PCR omitting reported RAT results.

This aforementioned figure includes positive diagnoses by PCR testing in:

Tweed Shire – 1,104 cases

Ballina Shire – 613 cases

Lismore City – 347 cases

Clarence Valley – 293 cases

Byron Shire – 177 cases

Richmond Valley – 120 cases

Kyogle Shire – 35 cases

Tenterfield – incidence where there is a shared postcode which includes some Tenterfield residents within NNSWLHD not reported in relevant NSW Health statistical table for this period.

State of Play COVID-19 Pandemic 2022: fewer Australians taking COVID-19 precautions by April 2022

www.covid19data.com.au
11am 18 May 2022


Cumulative Deaths from COVID-19 by Age Group & Gender

Australian Dept. of Health
18 May 2022

On Saturday 14 May 2022 there were est. 52 COVID-19 deaths in the previous 24 hours across Australia, on Sunday 15 May est. 21 deaths, on Monday 16 May est. 13 deaths, on Tuesday 17 May est. 66 deaths and on Wednesday 18 May est. 53 deaths. 

Australia is experiencing daily COVID-19 death numbers never seen in 2020 or 2021. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics; After cancers, doctor-certified deaths due to COVID-19 were the second most common cause of death in January 2022.

And yet governments urged on by Prime Minister Scott Morrison have all but abandoned public health measures and, he is currently framing the narrative that Australia has entered the post-pandemic phase and that deaths occurring are in men and women whose COVID-19 diagnosis was merely incidental to their deaths - and in almost the same breath saying that COVID-19 deaths are occurring as expected.

This is a gross misrepresentation by Morrison.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics clearly reported that between January 2020 and March 2022 COVID-19 was the underlying cause of death in 90.8% of all deaths having a COVID-19 diagnosis. 

On 16 May 2022 the Royal Australian College of General Practitioners observed that; COVID-19 cases and deaths are many times the amount modelled ahead of Australia’s re-opening. Further stating that; In the past six months from mid-November 2021 – when inter-state travel restrictions began to be lifted – there have been 5,906 deaths attributed to COVID-19, more than quadruple the amount that was predicted by the Doherty Institute modelling.

However, with publicly available information on official COVID-19 infection numbers, transmission rates, locations and deaths now being deliberately redefined, fragmented, less frequent or ceasing entirely, most people now only have a vague awareness of how the pandemic continues to play out in their local government area.

This is the result.....

Australian Bureau of Statistics, media release, 17 May 2022:

Fewer Australians taking COVID-19 precautions

Source Household Impacts of COVID-19 Survey, April 2022

More Australians reported household members returning positive COVID-19 tests in April, but fewer reported taking precautions against the spread of COVID-19, according to survey results released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

ABS Head of Household Surveys, David Zago, said: “Our latest Household Impacts of COVID-19 Survey, conducted between 19 and 28 April 2022, showed 62 per cent of households had a COVID-19 test in the past four weeks, up from 46 per cent in March 2022.”

Of those households where someone had a COVID-19 test, 23 per cent reported one or more household members had tested positive in April, up from 14 per cent in March.

“However, only 78 per cent of Australians in April reported wearing a face mask in the previous week, down from 98 per cent in February.

“In April, Australians were also less likely in the week before the survey was conducted to have taken precautions by washing their hands or using hand sanitiser regularly (92 per cent down from 95 per cent in February), and physically distancing themselves from other people (75 per cent down from 85 per cent),” said Mr Zago.

The results, released as part of a suite of ABS products to measure the impacts of COVID-19 on households from 2020 to 2022, also provide insight into social activities and working from home arrangements of people compared with before COVID-19 restrictions were introduced in Australia.

“Almost twice as many employed Australians worked from home one or more times a week in April compared to before COVID-19 restrictions were introduced in March 2020 (46 per cent up from 24 per cent). Meanwhile, fewer Australians exercised at a gym or played sport in April compared to March 2020 (29 per cent down from 38 per cent).”

Australians in April were also less likely to attended social gatherings one or more times a week than before restrictions were introduced (20 per cent down from 27 per cent).

The ABS would like to thank the Australian households that contributed to results for the duration of this survey.

Media notes

• COVID-19 tests refer to both Rapid Antigen Tests (RATs) and Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) tests.

Overflowing with arrogant certainty and drunk with power NSW Premier & Liberal MP for Epping Dominic Perrottet threw open the door wide to 'living with COVID' on 15 December 2021 - 23 days later he is trying desperately to close it again

 

Perrottet attempting to pretend all is going to plan......

The Sydney Morning Herald, 7 January 2022:

The NSW government is preparing to announce a major reversal of COVID-19 restrictions by shutting nightclubs, banning singing and dancing in pubs, and pausing major events and some elective surgery in response to the state’s surging Omicron caseload.

The changes were expected to be finalised on Friday after NSW recorded 70,000 coronavirus cases in two days and a significant increase in the number of hospitalised patients, government sources not authorised to speak publicly said on Thursday night.

Venues would also be discouraged from allowing “vertical consumption”, or standing up while drinking at bars, under the proposed changes, the sources said.

Major events would be risk-assessed by NSW Health and postponed where necessary. Restrictions will be branded as “minor” safety measures that will allow the state to “continue to live with COVID and manage the pandemic in a measured and considered way”.

The measures are to be signed off by the government’s COVID economic recovery committee on Friday morning. The decisions were made following a meeting of the committee on Thursday morning…..

Meanwhile, elective surgery restrictions are also expected to be re-introduced on Friday, after the Premier flagged the state government was “looking at” limiting procedures as well as mobilising private hospitals to deal with what health authorities have said will likely be a rapid, but short, case surge.

The Premier’s office was contacted for comment but did not reply before deadline.

And the long journey through the global COVD-19 pandemic continues for New South Wales & Northern NSW

# NSW recorded 35,054 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the 24 hours to 8pm Tuesday, 4 January 2022 and 8 deaths.

The NSW death toll now stands at 685 men, women and children since the pademic first began in January 2020.

Currently there are 1,491 COVID-19 cases admitted across 63 hospitals, with 119 people in intensive care, 32 of whom require ventilation.

There are currently 186,552 confirmed COVID-19 cases under self-management outside of a hospital setting. Note: this does not include those infected people who have been denied access to PCR testing since late December 2021 and are therefore invisible in all official state datasets.

Of the 35,054 cases reported to 8pm last night, 6,542 are from South Western Sydney Local Health District (LHD), 5,989 are from Western Sydney LHD, 5,710 are from South Eastern Sydney LHD, 3,827 are from Sydney LHD, 3,667 are from Northern Sydney LHD, 2,961 are from Hunter New England LHD, 1,502 are from Nepean Blue Mountains LHD, 1,496 are from Illawarra Shoalhaven LHD, 588 are from Central Coast LHD, 576 are from Northern NSW LHD, 501 are from Western NSW LHD, 392 are from Mid North Coast LHD, 379 are from Murrumbidgee LHD, 345 are from Southern NSW LHD, 24 are from Far West LHD, eight are in correctional settings and 547 are yet to be assigned to an LHD.

There were 108,844 COVID-19 tests reported to 8pm on 4 January revealing a test positivity rate of 32.2%.

NSW Health reports that on 4 January there were 184,413 active COVID-19 cases state-wide.

As at 8m on Tuesday, 4 January there were 576 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 across the 7 local government areas in the Northern NSW Local Health District.

Tweed Shire – 240 cases across postcodes 2483, 2484, 2485, 2486, 2487, 2488, 2489;

Ballina Shire – 102 cases across postcodes 2477, 2478;

Byron Shire – 96 cases across postcodes 2479, 2481, 2482, 2483;

Clarence Valley – 67 cases across postcodes 2460, 2462, 2463, 2464;

Lismore City – 43 cases across postcodes 2472, 2480;

Richmond Valley – 25 cases across postcodes 2469, 2470, 2471, 2473,

Kyogle Shire – 3 cases in postcode 2474.

TOTAL 576

There are currently 26 COVID-19 positive patients in hospital in Northern NSW, with 4 of these in ICU.

# NSW recorded 34,994 new cases of COVID-19 in the 24 hours to 8pm Wednesday, 5 January 2022 and 6 deaths.

The NSW death toll now stands at 691 men, women and children since the pademic first began in January 2020.

There are currently 1,609 COVID-19 cases admitted to hospital, with 131 people in intensive care, 38 of whom require ventilation.

Of the 34,994 cases reported to 8pm last night, 5,556 are from South Eastern Sydney Local Health District (LHD), 5,456 are from Western Sydney LHD, 5,364 are from South Western Sydney LHD, 4,226 are from Sydney LHD, 3,538 are from Northern Sydney LHD, 3,424 are from Hunter New England LHD, 1,633 are from Illawarra Shoalhaven LHD, 1,452 are from Nepean Blue Mountains LHD, 1,116 are from Central Coast LHD, 686 are from Northern NSW LHD, 637 are from Mid North Coast LHD, 524 are from Western NSW LHD, 419 are from Murrumbidgee LHD, 322 are from Southern NSW LHD, 30 are from Far West LHD, 11 are in correctional settings two are in hotel quarantine and 598 are yet to be assigned to an LHD.

There were 111,231 COVID-19 tests reported to 8pm 5 January, with an as yet unconfirmed test positivity rate. However, a number of journalists are reporting 35% of all tests on 5 January were positive for COVID-19.

As at 8m on Wednesday, 5 January there were 686 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 across the 7 local government areas in the Northern NSW Local Health District and 1 death in Ballina LGA.

Byron Shire – 236 cases across postcodes 2479, 2481, 2482, 2483;

Tweed Shire – 224 cases across postcodes 2483, 2484, 2485, 2486, 2487, 2488, 2489, 2490;

Ballina Shire – 92 cases across postcodes 2477, 2478;

Lismore City – 81 cases across postcodes 2472, 2480;

Richmond Valley – 21 cases across postcodes 2469, 2470, 2471, 2473;

Clarence Valley – 20 cases across postcodes 2460, 2462, 2463, 2464; 2466;

Kyogle Shire – 9 cases across postcodes 2474, 2476;

Tenterfield Shire – 3 cases across postcodes 2372, 2476.

Note: Tenterfield is in the Hunter-New England Local Health District, but postcodes put cases in NNSWLHD

TOTAL 686

There are currently 25 COVID-19 positive patients in hospital in Northern NSW, with 4 of these in ICU. 

Australia 2022: a study in betrayal

SARS-CoV-2 entered Australia on 15 January 2020. It came here by a commercial passenger jet. It was not until 25 January 2020 that the infected passenger was diagnosed with COVID-19 and became our own Patient Zero in Sydney, New South Wales.

That same day two more airline passengers who disembarked in Sydney were also diagnosed with COVID-19.

From the very beginning the public health response of both the Federal and NSW governments was never as swift and comprehensive as it needed to be.

Indeed, over the next 15 months it often seemed that Prime Minister & fundamentalist Liberal Party ideologue Scott Morrison was personally determined to sabotage any chance of coming through this pandemic with minimal viral infections, deaths and long-term health problems for those who recovered from COVID-19.

However, despite the increasing politicization and weaponing of the public health response by the Morrison Government, we almost made it through.

By 15 June 2021 Australia had limited infection spread so that the cumulative total of COVID-19 cases was 30,274 people – just 0.1176% of the entire population. Sadly the COVID-10 related death toll stood at 910 individuals, but on the other hand there were only 116 active cases remaining in the entire country and only 26 of these were still sick enough to require hospitalization. Such outcomes compared favourably with global pandemic data.

On 16 June NSW Health confirmed that SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant had been discovered after testing a man from Eastern Sydney. It was then that first the population of New South Wales and later by the rest of Australia discovered that, when it came to elected members of the federal and NSW state governments, there had been no lessons learnt from the earlier litany of public health blunders.

The Delta Variant quickly became a state-wide outbreak that was exported to other states and territories once then NSW Premier & Liberal MP for Willoughby Gladys Berejiklian – seemingly in thrall to Scott Morrison – began to insist that communities across the state must learn to ‘live with COVID’ and that the other states needed to follow her plan to re-open borders and scale back public health order conditions & restrictions. Scott Morrison threw his weight behind the only state premier who agreed with him and COVID-19 infections began to grow and spread at an alarming rate.

Over the next 23 weeks the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Australia grew to a cumulative total of 205,271 people with a COVID-19 related death toll of 1,985 individuals. The number of active cases remaining at the end of that time numbered 13,492 infected people with 557 ill enough to require hospitalisation.

There was a faint light at the end of the tunnel because infection growth and spread had begun to fall in the state that started the Delta Outbreak. So that at 8pm on Friday, 26 November 2021 the daily number of confirmed new cases of COVID-19 in NSW only totalled 235 people with 174 COVID-19 cases currently hospitalized and, 26 people in intensive care 10 of whom require ventilation.

Two days later NSW Health heralded the arrival of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant after passengers who disembarked in Sydney from southern Africa on 28 November 2021 had tested positive for COVID-19 and their test results were being sequenced for this new variant.

The most charitable explanation for what happened next was that the entire NSW Government mindlessly panicked and, with new Premier & fundamentalist Liberal Party ideologue Dominic Perrottet at the helm, decided to treat this new outbreak in the making as a purely political and economic issue. Scott Morrison encouraged this approach just as he had encouraged open borders, lowering public health order restrictions and living with COVID.

This time Morrison appears to have gone further behind closed doors at the so-called National Cabinet meetings – rumours of verbal abuse, political threats and threats of financial sanctions by the federal government began to filter out.

By 15 December 2021 there was little left of what had always been an inchoate national public health response to the COVID-19 pandemic and, the states had begun to follow New South Wales down the rabbit hole Scott Morrison had so industriously dug.

On 31 December 2021 the national cumulative total of confirmed COVID-19 cases had grown to 395,504 people or 1.536% of the entire population. And tellingly, est. 190,233 more people had fallen ill over the space of the last 5 weeks. The cumulative national COVID-19 related death toll stood at 2,239 individuals. Active cases numbered 137,752 and current hospitalizations 1,591.

By 1 January 2022 that 190,233 figure appeared to have grown to 225,560 additional confirmed COVID-19 cases in Australia in the space of the last 5 weeks. 

When 2 January arrived  there was more unwelcome news. As at 8pm the number of additional confirmed COVID-19 cases in the last 5 weeks had grown to est. 257,194 people nationally. 

The national daily number of new confirmed COVID-19 cases on 2 January was given as 32,354 people and the number of active cases as est, 188,957 individuals. Currently 1,978 infected people were ill enough to require hospitalisation (1,204 of those being inpatients in NSW hospitals), 148 being in ICUs (95 in NSW) and 51 being ventilated (25 in NSW).

While the cumulative national total confirmed cases according to the Australian Dept. of Health was 462,928 and total deaths since January 2020 were recorded as 2,258 men, women and children.

Unfortunately, after 23 months of community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 , an erratic national public health response and a political response in recent months which has the effect of limiting community access to PCR tests & rapid antigen self- testing kits, the recorded tally of confirmed COVID-19 cases no longer represents a true and accurate total of the number of people who actually contracted the virus. The degree of undetected infection and the under reporting in official data to date has not been publicly quantified in Australia, but there is some suggestion that it could currently be somewhere between 20-25% and up to 50% for the latter part of December 2021. These percentages have the potential to impact on government's ability to assess probability and risk going forward into 2022.

Regions, local government areas and communities across Australia are in uncharted waters. It might never be possible to walk back the current high infection rate in the foreseeable future and, February 2022 may bring a new normal that is debilitating to national, state and regional economies, the public health system and social cohesion. 

Now one can argue about the level of virulence attached to the Omicron Variant and about whether cumulative, active, hospitalised or death toll numbers are important markers. However, what cannot be denied is that everyone of these active cases on any given day represents over time; a potential or real loss of productivity at state and national level, changes in the pattern of business profitability, yo-yoing consumer confidence, a decrease in tourism & hospitality turnover and an assault on the collective sense of safety and wellbeing. As well as a very real possibility that how Australian citizen’s cast their ballot at elections held in 2022 may be very different from past years.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

In the first two days of 2022 Northern NSW Local Health District where this blog is situated had recorded a total of 715 new confirmed COVID-19 cases across the 7 local government areas and, reported up to 19 people in hospital with 4 in intensive care.

• Byron Shire – 260 cases

• Tweed Shire – 173 cases

• Ballina Shire – 108 cases

• Clarence Valley – 76 cases

• Lismore City – 74 cases

• Richmond Valley – 14 cases

• Kyogle Shire – 10 cases

TOTAL  715 

Sources

• https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/2021/06/coronavirus-covid-19-at-a-glance-15-june-2021.pdf

• https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/2021/11/coronavirus-covid-19-at-a-glance-27-november-2021.pdf

• https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/2022/01/coronavirus-covid-19-at-a-glance-31-december-2021.pdf

• https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/news/Pages/2021-nsw-health.aspx

• https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/news/Pages/2022-nsw-health.aspx

• https://nnswlhd.health.nsw.gov.au/blog/category/media-releases/