Showing posts with label public health measures. Show all posts
Showing posts with label public health measures. Show all posts

Monday 31 July 2023

CLIMATE CHANGE AUSTRALIA STATE OF PLAY: looking towards the summer of December 2023 to February 2024


IMAGE: Weatherzone Australia, 07.10.2021






SG/SM/21893

27 JULY 2023


Press Conference by Secretary-General António Guterres at United Nations Headquarters


Following is the transcript of UN Secretary-General António Guterres’ press conference on climate and the situation in Niger, in New York today:


Secretary-General: A very good morning. Humanity is in the hot seat. Today, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the European Commission’s Copernicus Climate Change Service are releasing official data that confirms that July is set to be the hottest month ever recorded in human history. We don’t have to wait for the end of the month to know this. Short of a mini-Ice Age over the next days, July will shatter records across the board.


According to the data released today, July has already seen the hottest three-week period ever recorded; the three hottest days on record; and the highest-ever ocean temperatures for this time of year. The consequences are clear and they are tragic: children swept away by monsoon rains; families running from the flames; workers collapsing in scorching heat.


For vast parts of North America, Asia, Africa and Europe, it is a cruel summer. For the entire planet, it is a disaster. And for scientists, it is unequivocal — humans are to blame. All this is entirely consistent with predictions and repeated warnings. The only surprise is the speed of the change. Climate change is here. It is terrifying. And it is just the beginning.


The era of global warming has ended; the era of global boiling has arrived. The air is unbreathable. The heat is unbearable. And the level of fossil-fuel profits and climate inaction is unacceptable. Leaders must lead. No more hesitancy. No more excuses. No more waiting for others to move first. There is simply no more time for that. [my yellow highlighting]


It is still possible to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C and avoid the very worst of climate change. But, only with dramatic, immediate climate action. We have seen some progress. A robust rollout of renewables. Some positive steps from sectors, such as shipping. But, none of this is going far enough or fast enough. Accelerating temperatures demand accelerated action.


We have several critical opportunities ahead. The Africa Climate Summit. The G20 [Group of 20] Summit. The UN Climate Ambition Summit. COP28 [twenty-eighth Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change]. But leaders — and particularly G20 countries responsible for 80 per cent of global emissions — must step up for climate action and climate justice. What does that mean in practice?


First, emissions. We need ambitious new national emissions reduction targets from G20 members. And we need all countries to take action in line with my Climate Solidarity Pact and Acceleration Agenda: Hitting fast-forward so that developed countries commit to reach net-zero emissions as close as possible to 2040, and emerging economies as close as possible to 2050, with support from developed countries to do so.


And all actors must come together to accelerate a just and equitable transition from fossil fuels to renewables — as we stop oil and gas expansion, and funding and licensing for new coal, oil and gas. Credible plans must also be presented to exit coal by 2030 for Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries and 2040 for the rest of the world. Ambitious renewable energy goals must be in line with the 1.5°C limit. And we must reach net-zero electricity by 2035 in developed countries and 2040 elsewhere, as we work to bring affordable electricity to everyone on earth.


We also need action from leaders beyond Governments. I urge companies, as well as cities, regions and financial institutions, to come to the Climate Ambition Summit with credible transition plans that are fully aligned with the United Nations’ net zero standard, presented by our High-Level Expert Group.


Financial institutions must end their fossil fuel lending, underwriting and investments and shift to renewables instead. And fossil fuel companies must chart their move towards clean energy, with detailed transition plans across the entire value chain: No more greenwashing. No more deception. And no more abusive distortion of anti-trust laws to sabotage net zero alliances.


Second, adaptation. Extreme weather is becoming the new normal. All countries must respond and protect their people from the searing heat, fatal floods, storms, droughts and raging fires that result. Those countries on the front lines — who have done the least to cause the crisis and have the least resources to deal with it — must have the support they need to do so.


It is time for a global surge in adaptation investment to save millions of lives from climate [carnage.] That requires unprecedented coordination around the priorities and plans of vulnerable developing countries. Developed countries must present a clear and credible roadmap to double adaptation finance by 2025 as a first step towards devoting at least half of all climate finance to adaptation. Every person on earth must be covered by an early warning system by 2027 — by implementing the Action Plan we launched last year. And countries should consider a set of global goals to mobilize international action and support on adaptation.


That leads to the third area for accelerated action — finance. Promises made on international climate finance must be promises kept. Developed countries must honour their commitments to provide $100 billion a year to developing countries for climate support and fully replenish the Green Climate Fund. I am concerned that only two G7 [Group of Seven] countries — Canada and Germany — have made until now replenishment pledges. Countries must also operationalize the loss and damage fund at COP28 this year. No more delays; no more excuses.


More broadly, many banks, investors and other financial actors continue to reward polluters and incentivize wrecking the planet. We need a course correction in the global financial system so that it supports accelerated climate action. That includes putting a price on carbon and pushing the multilateral development banks to overhaul their business models and approaches to risk.


We need the multilateral development banks leveraging their funds to mobilize much more private finance at reasonable cost to developing countries — and scaling up their funding to renewables, adaptation and loss and damage. In all these areas, we need Governments, civil society, business and others working in partnership to deliver. I look forward to welcoming first-movers and doers on the Acceleration Agenda to New York for the Climate Ambition Summit in September. And to hearing how leaders will respond to the facts before us. This is the price of entry.


The evidence is everywhere: humanity has unleashed destruction. This must not inspire despair, but action. We can still stop the worst. But to do so we must turn a year of burning heat into a year of burning ambition. And accelerate climate action – now…..


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


Climate change is threatening the basic rights of children: to survive, thrive and reach their full potential.

By raising average global temperatures and increasing the frequency, intensity and duration of heatwaves,

climate change is exposing populations everywhere to heat stress, which is contributing to significant negative health outcomes particularly for infants, children, pregnant women, the elderly, outdoor workers and other vulnerable people. [UNICEF, 2023] [my yellow highlighting]


Victorian Dept. of Health, "Extreme Heat - Information for Clinicians", 15.12.2022, excerpt





~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


IMAGE: The Guardian, 21.01.2013



We have all seen the images on the television and Internet graphically illustrating the words of the UN Secretary-General and UNICEF.


So how will this affect us here in Australia when Summer officially arrives on 1 December 2023 and then plays out over the next 91 days?


Are we among those people considered more vulnerable as the climate ‘boils’? Are members of our families? Will the sheer number of vulnerable people mean that governments and public health systems won’t cope?


Here is a thumbnail sketch of some of the numbers involved….


In Australian in 2021 according to the national census the population totalled 25,422,788 men women and children. That number has grown by at least est. 845,571 people since then.


In that census there were 1,463,817 children aged 0-4 years of age and, another 1,586,138 children aged 5 to 9 years.


There were est. 71,000 women who registered a live birth/s in Australia during the summer months December 2020 to February 2021 summer [ABS, Births Australia 2021]


That 2021 census also revealed there were 4,378,088 people living across Australia aged 65 years to 85 years and over.


In 2021 there were an est.1,625,200 workers who spent part or all of their working day outdoors.


In that last census an est. 31.7% of the Australian population was thought to have a chronic medical illness/disease/condition that would make them potentially vulnerable to prolonged heat stress.


It appears that approx. 75% of residences now have some form of air conditioning and 25% no way of cooling their home. It has been reported that last summer; “Nearly 90% of people on income support payments say the inability to cool their homes in hot weather is making them sick, and even those who have air conditioning avoid using it because it is too expensive, a survey by Australian Council of Social Service has found”.


At least 122,494 people were estimated to be experiencing homelessness on Census night in 2021 and, so could be thought to have no reliable access to shade in hot weather.


That is over 9 million men, women and children who might begin falling ill, perhaps seriously, in five months time if an El Niño continues to interact with background rising temperatures and Australia experiences a summer such as the Northern Hemisphere is now enduring.


Wednesday 11 January 2023

Review of COVID-19 Vaccine and Treatment Purchasing and Procurement aka the Halton Report is very clear about the fact that the world & Australia are not yet 'COVID-stable'. That federal and state governments need to revisit public heath and vaccine procurement policy & planning.


 

Transcript of letter accompanying Review of COVID-19 Vaccine and Treatment Purchasing and Procurement report:



The Hon Mark Butler

Minister for Health and Aged Care

Parliament House

CANBERRA ACT 2600


Dear Minister


On 30 June 2022 you commissioned an independent review of the purchasing and procurement of COVID-19 vaccine and treatments to inform the next 12-24 months. This report provides the conclusions and recommendations of the review.


The review team engaged with a number of key stakeholders involved in Australia’s response to the

COVID-19 pandemic and rollout of vaccines and treatments. This included epidemiological experts

both nationally and internationally, Commonwealth, state and territory Health departments and bodies, health sector organisations, as well as manufacturers of the vaccines and treatments procured within Australia.


As principal reviewer I was assisted by Professor Peter Collignon AM who provided expert medical advice. I would also like to acknowledge the work of the review project team led by Georgie Fairhall, Department of Health and Aged Care.


Early procurement of vaccines and treatments occurred in a highly competitive global market. In this context Australia secured a portfolio of effective COVID-19 vaccines and treatments enabling high rates of primary course vaccination preventing serious illness and death relative to global peers.


However, Australia and the world are not yet ‘COVID-stable’, and we are unable to confidently predict the timing or impact of new waves and variants. This uncertainty presents particular challenges. The availability of efficacious vaccines and treatments will continue to play a key role in ensuring ongoing protection for lives and livelihoods.


The next two years are critical to supporting our economy, health and education systems to recover. Australia's approach to the procurement of vaccines and treatments needs to be responsive to the changing environment and should be guided by clear policy and understanding of risk appetite.


Consideration should be given to the decision-making structures and advice required, and whether new and existing pathways for procurement and distribution of vaccines and treatments should be retained or adapted. Finally, it is critical that Australia maintains surge capacity in the event of a serious new variant or another infectious disease.


Yours sincerely


Hon. Professor Jane Halton AO PSM

19 September 2022

[my yellow highlighting]




Review of COVID-19 Vaccine and Treatment Purchasing and Procurement aka the Halton Report by clarencegirl on Scribd

https://www.scribd.com/document/618758421/Review-of-COVID-19-Vaccine-and-Treatment-Purchasing-and-Procurement-aka-the-Halton-Report


Note: This letter, executive summary & recommendations are the full extent of what the federal government was prepared to release for public consumption. The remainder of the Halton Report allegedly covers contractual arrangements with vaccine manufacturers and as such is commercial-in-confidence.


The Saturday Paper, 7 January 2023, excerpts:


A summary of the review by former senior health bureaucrat Professor Jane Halton was released in September last year. The full version of the report, obtained by The Saturday Paper under freedom of information laws, paints a disturbing picture of what could lie ahead as the virus mutates further and existing vaccines become less effective.....


Speaking to The Saturday Paper this week, Halton emphasised that the virus remains a serious threat that could worsen. 


“The world is currently seeing the emergence of yet more new variants, including XBB1.5, which underscores that the pandemic and particularly the effects of SARS-CoV-2 are not yet completely behind us,” said Halton, who heads the global Centre for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, or CEPI. 


“It’s really important to take a step back and say, ‘What are we trying to achieve here?’ I’d love to see a narrative from the federal Health minister – the goals we want to achieve. I’m just not seeing that. It just seems to be a lot of Whac-A-Mole going on.” 


“The entire world is looking forward to a day where we don’t have to worry about SARS-CoV-2. However, we continue to need to be prepared for all circumstances, including new and more dangerous variants.” 


In her report, Halton writes that Australia signed advanced purchasing agreements (APAs) with vaccine manufacturers “later than other comparative countries which delayed the supply of vaccines and the speed of the rollout”. 


Australia later overtook other countries, once a distribution plan was in place. However, Halton warns that those foundational APAs are now expiring. “As a consequence, new APAs giving effect to purchasing decisions will be needed.” 


A spokesperson for Butler declined to comment specifically on new purchasing agreements but said the government “has ensured there is a portfolio of vaccines and supply available to Australians in 2023 and 2024”. 


The report says the new government should rethink eligibility for both vaccines and the antiviral treatments that lessen the virus’s impact on individuals. It says optimising their uptake and investing in new versions will be “critical” in what will continue to be a highly competitive global market. 


“In the short-term, wider eligibility for some treatments should be considered where there are stocks available, there is evidence of efficacy, safety and broader economic and societal benefits (such as workforce availability). This is particularly the case where there is no significant private market to help limit the burden of the disease.” 


The absence of a “private market” highlights that the government’s approach to Covid-19 vaccines is different than for other vaccines. 


For example, anyone in Australia can access the annual influenza vaccine. The government lists the vaccine on the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) and identifies priority groups who can receive it free. Others who want to be vaccinated protectively can pay to obtain it through vaccination clinics or their local general practice. Some employers offer staff vaccinations to limit workdays lost to illness. 


That is not the case for Covid-19 vaccines and was also not the case for Covid treatments when they first became available. The government is the only purchaser and distributor of these vaccines and it alone controls who can access them. 


Unlike its American counterpart, the Australian government has only authorised a fifth vaccine dose for the most vulnerable. In the United States, a protective fifth shot is widely available. 


Butler’s spokesperson did not respond directly to a question about the different approaches to eligibility. “New booster dose recommendations are anticipated in early 2023 in preparation for winter,” they said. “Future recommendations will aim to provide ongoing clear guidance across all groups including time since last dose and definitions of eligibility.” 


The current, restrictive approach was adopted in the pandemic’s emergency phase to ensure access was not dictated by who could pay; but Halton notes circumstances have now changed, with most of the population protected by at least basic vaccination. 


She suggests that widening access to vaccines – and treatments – could slow the spread of variants and lessen risk as immunity wanes. In other words, the cost-benefit equation around restricting access has shifted. 


Halton writes that variants influence the effectiveness of both vaccines and treatments. “These changes are significant for decision-making,” she writes, “and the relative benefit of individual vaccines and treatments will continue to need to be assessed.” 


The report also indicates a shift in the importance of antiviral treatments, which have not been a focus in Australia’s Covid policy. Halton notes that if vaccination or previous infection no longer offer significant protection against new variants, treatments may now be considered proportionally more beneficial than when protection from vaccines was higher.


Halton warns that the current broad distribution framework for vaccines “does not include a strategy for the distribution of treatments as they were not widely available in 2020”...... 


Halton’s report says strategies and frameworks drafted early in the pandemic are now out of date and don’t adequately consider developments in vaccines and especially treatments for the virus. She says government should rethink those restrictions put in place because of supply constraints.....


She also notes that because the previous government elected to adopt all advice from the Australian Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation (ATAGI), it effectively became the decision-maker. Its advice was not always interrogated and was portrayed as entirely clinical when it was sometimes based on judgement.


The ATAGI advice, which is released publicly, is often treated as prescriptive and rules-based. The timeliness of this advice has also been questioned.”


Halton describes a “mismatch” between vaccine supply and demand, the latter having been restricted by the eligibility criteria ATAGI had applied, which were often narrower than those contained in the Therapeutic Goods Administration approvals. Halton says this has created confusion about their respective roles.


She writes that ATAGI’s advice “has changed over time and does not provide a firm foundation for procurement decisions”.


Halton’s report says there have also been delays in the booster stage.


While Australia has had early success with managing the pandemic, further emergence of new variants and management of the vaccination rollout has seen waning performance in comparison to other countries,” the report says. “Australia currently has the second lowest rate of booster uptake among comparator countries.”


Halton says “inconsistent messaging from health authorities” has contributed to the slow booster uptake and urges the government to significantly improve public communications.


The government has accepted all of Halton’s recommendations “in principle”, Butler’s spokesperson said. A formal government response is expected soon.


Thursday 19 May 2022

State of Play COVID-19 Pandemic 2022: fewer Australians taking COVID-19 precautions by April 2022


www.covid19data.com.au
11am 18 May 2022



Cumulative Deaths from COVID-19 by Age Group & Gender




Australian Dept. of Health
18 May 2022





















On Saturday 14 May 2022 there were est. 52 COVID-19 deaths in the previous 24 hours across Australia, on Sunday 15 May est. 21 deaths, on Monday 16 May est. 13 deaths, on Tuesday 17 May est. 66 deaths and on Wednesday 18 May est. 53 deaths. 


Australia is experiencing daily COVID-19 death numbers never seen in 2020 or 2021. According to the Australian Bureau of StatisticsAfter cancers, doctor-certified deaths due to COVID-19 were the second most common cause of death in January 2022.


And yet governments urged on by Prime Minister Scott Morrison have all but abandoned public health measures and, he is currently framing the narrative that Australia has entered the post-pandemic phase and that deaths occurring are in men and women whose COVID-19 diagnosis was merely incidental to their deaths - and in almost the same breath saying that COVID-19 deaths are occurring as expected.


This is a gross misrepresentation by Morrison.


The Australian Bureau of Statistics clearly reported that between January 2020 and March 2022 COVID-19 was the underlying cause of death in 90.8% of all deaths having a COVID-19 diagnosis


On 16 May 2022 the Royal Australian College of General Practitioners observed that; COVID-19 cases and deaths are many times the amount modelled ahead of Australia’s re-opening. Further stating that; In the past six months from mid-November 2021 – when inter-state travel restrictions began to be lifted – there have been 5,906 deaths attributed to COVID-19, more than quadruple the amount that was predicted by the Doherty Institute modelling.


However, with publicly available information on official COVID-19 infection numbers, transmission rates, locations and deaths now being deliberately redefined, fragmented, less frequent or ceasing entirely, most people now only have a vague awareness of how the pandemic continues to play out in their local government area.


This is the result.....


Australian Bureau of Statistics, media release, 17 May 2022:


Fewer Australians taking COVID-19 precautions

Source Household Impacts of COVID-19 Survey, April 2022


More Australians reported household members returning positive COVID-19 tests in April, but fewer reported taking precautions against the spread of COVID-19, according to survey results released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).


ABS Head of Household Surveys, David Zago, said: “Our latest Household Impacts of COVID-19 Survey, conducted between 19 and 28 April 2022, showed 62 per cent of households had a COVID-19 test in the past four weeks, up from 46 per cent in March 2022.”


Of those households where someone had a COVID-19 test, 23 per cent reported one or more household members had tested positive in April, up from 14 per cent in March.


However, only 78 per cent of Australians in April reported wearing a face mask in the previous week, down from 98 per cent in February.


In April, Australians were also less likely in the week before the survey was conducted to have taken precautions by washing their hands or using hand sanitiser regularly (92 per cent down from 95 per cent in February), and physically distancing themselves from other people (75 per cent down from 85 per cent),” said Mr Zago.


The results, released as part of a suite of ABS products to measure the impacts of COVID-19 on households from 2020 to 2022, also provide insight into social activities and working from home arrangements of people compared with before COVID-19 restrictions were introduced in Australia.


Almost twice as many employed Australians worked from home one or more times a week in April compared to before COVID-19 restrictions were introduced in March 2020 (46 per cent up from 24 per cent). Meanwhile, fewer Australians exercised at a gym or played sport in April compared to March 2020 (29 per cent down from 38 per cent).”


Australians in April were also less likely to attended social gatherings one or more times a week than before restrictions were introduced (20 per cent down from 27 per cent).


The ABS would like to thank the Australian households that contributed to results for the duration of this survey.


Media notes

  • COVID-19 tests refer to both Rapid Antigen Tests (RATs) and Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) tests.