This blog is open to any who wish to comment on Australian society, the state of the environment or political shenanigans at Federal, State and Local Government level.
There
are 8 real-time, satellite-linked VR4G listening stations deployed in
approximately 10 to 12 metres depth of water approx. 500 metres
offshore along the stretch of coastal waters off the Northern Rivers
region in north-east New South Wales.
These
listening station buoys are located at:
Kingscliff
Beach, Tweed Heads
Clarkes
Beach, Byron Bay
Lennox
Point, Lennox Head
Sharps
Beach, Ballina
Lighthouse
Beach, Ballina
Main
Beach, Evans Head
Main
Beach, Yamba.
VR4G
listening station off Lighthouse Beach, Ballina
IMAGE:
NSW DPI Shark Smart
In
2023 the total number of shark detections at each of these 8
listening buoys were:
Main
Beach, Evans Head - 3,135 (3,031 Bull Sharks & 96 White Sharks)
Main
Beach, Yamba - 17,501 (17,306 Bull Sharks, 103 White Sharks &
2 Tiger Sharks).
Although
in 2023 Yamba might have been the main contender for the title of
shark capital of New South Wales, particularly in the months of April
to August, there have been zero fatal shark attacks in Yamba river or
ocean waters since 1850 and, only 37 injuries resulting from
contact with a shark recorded by the Australian
Shark Incident Database in that same 174 year period.
DPI Fisheries advise: tagged Bull Shark #1874 detected by Yamba receiver at 06:47:38 AM (AEST) on 24-April-2024. Last detected at 05:52:50 PM (AEST) on 19-April-2024 by Yamba receiver. Tagged and released 28-April-2023(AEST) at Main Beach, Yamba.
As for the entire coastline of north-east NSW along with its saltwater river mouths, from the Clarence Valley up to the NSW-Qld border, there have been est. 361 interactions with sharks resulting in injury since 1850, including est. 37 deaths.
Most
of what we the general public think we know about sea level rise
calculations by inundation height and rate is derived from models
which did not anticipate global land and sea surface temperatures accelerating as sharply as they have in the last two years nor
thought that an average annual global temperature anomaly of 1.5°C
above pre-industrial levels was quite literally just around the
corner.
So
it is highly possible that what is quoted below by way of text and maps is an underestimation of what the Australian East Coast will begin to
experience between now and 2030. While it is also likely that the most common established timelines of climate change milestones which run out to 2100 will be truncated to a marked degree.
UN
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),
AR6 Synthesis Report (2020-23),Headline Statements,excerpt:
Continued
greenhouse gas emissions will lead to increasing global warming, with
the best estimate of reaching 1.5°C in the near term in considered
scenarios and modelled pathways. Every increment of global warming
will intensify multiple and concurrent hazards (high confidence).
IPCC
modelling suggests slightly higher
sea level rise to the north of the state and slightly lower to
the south. These projections do not include processes associated with
the melting of ice sheets which for NSW could result in sea level
rise of up to 2.3m by 2100 and 5.5m by 2150.
In
the longer term, the IPCC show sea level is committed to rise for
centuries to millennia due to continuing deep ocean warming and ice
sheet melt, and will remain elevated for thousands of years.
If
warming is limited to 1.5°C, global mean sea level will rise by
about 2 to 3m.
for
2°C, 2 to 6m is expected, and
for
5° 19 to 22m is expected.[my
yellow highlighting]
“Warming
oceans cause sea levels to rise, both directly via heat expansion,
and indirectly through melting of ice shelves. Warming oceans also
affect marine ecosystems, for example through coral bleaching, and
play a role in weather events such as the formation of tropical
cyclones”[The
Conversation,
14 September 2021, reporting on research by Kewei
Lyu, Xuebin Zhang & John A. Church]
This is a Australian Bureau Of Meteorology visualisation of sea surface temperatures around the Australian coastline on 4 August 2023 asEl Niño conditions continue to be expected to arrive within weeks.
The
Bureau's El Niño Alert continues, with El Niño development
considered likely in the coming weeks, despite the current lack of
atmospheric response. When El Niño Alert criteria have been met in
the past, an El Niño event has developed around 70% of the time.
Sea
surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Pacific are exceeding El
Niño thresholds, with climate models indicating this is likely to
continue at least through to the end of the year. In the atmosphere,
however, wind, cloud and broad-scale pressure patterns mostly
continue to reflect neutral ENSO conditions. This means the Pacific
Ocean and atmosphere have yet to become fully coupled, as occurs
during El Niño events. El Niño typically suppresses winter–spring
rainfall in eastern Australia.
And this is what is being discussed by climate scientists in our region.
Asia
Oceania Geosciences Society,
20th Annual Conference,Axford
Medal Lecturegiven
by UNSW Emeritus Professor John Church,
2
August 2023:
What
do we really know about 20th and 21st Century Sea-Level Change?
Abstract:
Accelerating sea-level rise in much of the world will result in
growing impacts through the 21st century and beyond. Despite the
clear identification of an accelerating rise, many uncertainties
remain. Understanding historical sea-level change is a prerequisite
for building confidence in useful and accurate predictions of future
changes.
For
many decades, our limited knowledge of the contributions to sea-level
change could not explain the rise measured by coastal tide gauges –
the sea level enigma. New and improved in situ and satellite
observations of the ocean, improved understanding of the “solid
Earth”, and better understanding and improved modelling of the
climate system have helped resolve this enigma. A number of recent
studies have argued that the sum of contributions from both
observations and model estimates to sea-level change over the
satellite era, the last half century and since 1900 adequately
explains the observed sea-level rise, which means the sea-level
budget is closed. The major contributions are from ocean thermal
expansion and contributions from glaciers, with an accelerating ice
sheet contributions over the recent decades.
Our
recent work has explored the sensitivity of global and regional
sea-level reconstructions to poorly known land motions and the
factors causing temporal and regional variations in the rate of rise.
With this knowledge, existing reconstructions of global mean sea
level are mostly not significantly different to each other from
1900 to the present, both in the time-averaged rate and the temporal
variability. However, while the average rate over 1900 to present is
similar to that from the sum of contributions, the rate of
reconstructed GMSL rise is significantly smaller/larger than the sum
of contributions prior to 1940/after 1970. Why is this? What do we
really know? What are potential explanations for this continuing
enigma?
And
what can we project about future sea level, both for the 21st century
and beyond. And can we constrain projections for the 21st century and
beyond?
One of the notable take-aways from this lecture appears to be:
..that
one of the main impacts of sea level on society will be how we adapt.
“We
will have to adapt to that sea level rise we can no longer prevent.
Of particular concern is very significantly increased rates of
coastal flooding events and eventually inundation of some coastal
areas,” Prof. Church said.
“We
are already experiencing more severe and more frequent coastal
flooding events impacting an increasing number of people.
“This
century, we could expect up to about a metre of sea level rise with
unmitigated emissions. This could rise to several metres over coming
centuries. Today, an estimated 200 million people live within one
metre of current high tide level, and by mid-century over a billion
people are likely to live in the low elevation coastal zone, which is
within 10 metres of current sea level.” [UNSW
Newsroom,
“'Urgent
action is required’: UNSW climate expert on what’s to come as sea
levels rise”,
2 August 2023]
A
reminder that much of the NSW Northern Rivers coastal region is
predicted to experience significant levels of inundation at an
average global surface temperature rise of 1.5°C.
Climate
Central,
north-east
NSW
(Northern Rivers) mapping, 2021. Click on image to enlarge
BACKGROUND
John
Church is an Emeritus Professor in the Climate Change Research
Centre, University of New South Wales. He has published across a
broad range of topics in oceanography.
His
area of expertise is the role of the ocean in climate, particularly
anthropogenic climate change, and in understanding global and
regional sea-level rise. He is the author of over 180 refereed
publications, over 110 other reports and co-edited three books. He
was co-convening lead author for the Chapter on Sea Level in the IPCC
Third and Fifth Assessment Reports. He was awarded the 2006 Roger
Revelle Medal by the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission, a
CSIRO Medal for Research Achievement in 2006, the 2007 Eureka Prize
for Scientific Research, the 2008 AMOS
R.H.
Clarke Lecture, the AMOS Morton Medal in 2017, a joint winner of the
BBVA Frontiers of Knowledge Climate Change Category Prize in 2019,
the AAS Jaeger Medal in 2021 and the Royal Society of NSW James Cook
Medal in 2022. He is an Officer of the Order of Australia, a Fellow
of the Australian Academy of Science, the Australian Academy of
Technology and Engineering, the American Geophysical Union, the
American Meteorological Society and the Australian Meteorological and
Oceanographic Society.
Temporary
housing sites will host groups of temporary modular homes (also
called pods) and caravans. The sites will include supporting
infrastructure and amenities. They will vary in size, depending on
the land and available amenities.
The
temporary homes are stand-alone accommodation units that range from
studios to 3-bedroom units. Some temporary homes will have their own
internal facilities. Some sites will have communal bathrooms and
kitchen facilities.
Temporary
homes are rent-free for up to 2 years. Power and water costs are also
included during that time. Residents are responsible for their own
internet costs. For caravan residents, there may be some costs for
waste management. The community housing provider will discuss any
ongoing costs with residents.
How
long will the temporary homes be available?
The
temporary housing sites will be available for up to 3 years. The time
will depend on what is needed by the community. Residents can live in
the pods while they find and settle back into long-term housing. This
will allow time for rebuilding homes, moving, or finding a rental
property.
Flood
victims are calling for urgent help after many spent Christmas
sleeping in their cars or under their houses while emergency housing
pods built specifically for them stand empty on the side of the road.
The
Daily Telegraph found 10 empty purpose-built pods on the roadside
just four kilometres from the centre of Lismore where Julia Melvin is
still living in her car under her flood-damaged home.
Ten
months after the catastrophic floods there are still officially 765
people in emergency accommodation – not counting those staying with
friends or family or in their cars – and four of 11 pod housing
sites still under construction.
Frustrated
residents believe the $350 million spent on temporary housing,
including unused pods by the now decommissioned Resilience NSW, could
instead have been used to help fix the shortage of 18,600 homes
across the Northern Rivers.
Ms
Melvin, 62, is sleeping in her car underneath her home near the river
in Lismore with her dog Bella after being rescued from the house in a
tinny last February.
“I
cannot live in the house so I have to sleep in the car,” the
graphic designer said through tears. “Talking about it is still
pretty tough.” Ms Melvin would like to move her entire house to a
new location but while she battles to do so she could have been
living in an emergency pod.
“I
haven’t been offered anything,” she said.” It’s been inertia,
totally shambolic.” The emergency housing pods, costing up to
$170,000 each, were meant to be a quick fix to provide flood victims
with temporary housing. But the rollout has been slow with local
residents opposing their construction on ovals and public land.
A
site with 52 self-contained pods that can house 200 people only
opened on land at Southern Cross University in Lismore last month –
nine months after the floods hit. There are other sites at Coraki,
Evans Head, Kingscliff, Pottsville, Wardell and Wollongbar. Four more
are under construction.
Lismore
state Labor MP Janelle Saffin, who is still working out of a
temporary office because hers was damaged in the floods, said rather
than leaving 10 pods empty on the side of the road it would have been
better to put them on private land so people could use them.
“It
could have been managed better. No one knows what is being spent. It
is awful and heartbreaking,” she said.
“They
have said people will be in the pods for a couple of years. It might
have been better to do modular homes in the beginning and let people
buy them in the future.” NDIS worker Gray Wilson and partner Lisa
Walmsley were due to move into their new home in Brewster St the day
after the floods hit. They desperately want one of the pod homes.
“I
was waiting for someone to contact me but I never heard back,” Mr
Wilson said.
A
NSW government spokeswoman confirmed there were 765 people in
emergency accommodation in northern NSW, including in motorhomes and
motels, despite $350m being spent on “medium-term accommodation”.
“The
rollout of this housing program has faced challenges, particularly
the persistent wet weather which has hampered construction,” she
said.
The
spokeswoman said 546 temporary housing units across 11 sites would
eventually have the capacity to house more than 1800 people.
On 25 December 2022 SQM Research recorded a total of 110 rental listings for the Lismore City postcode of 2480, which includes East, West, North and South Lismore, Goonellabah and Girards Hill . Only three of these properties were long-term rental, the majority (92 dwellings) being rented out for periods under 30 days.
The
NSW Agriculture Minister has signalled the government has no plans to
phase out logging of native hardwood in state forests.
Key
points:
All
North Coast Wood Supply Agreements have been extended until 2028
The
Agriculture Minister says selective harvesting of native forests is
a renewable industry and does not plan to phase out the practice
Critics
say the contracts are 'reckless' and unsustainable post-bushfires
and further threaten the habitats of endangered animals
The
state government announced a five-year extension of North Coast
Wood Supply Agreements last week.
Minister
Dugald Saunders said all agreements due to end next year had been
renewed in order to provide "certainty" for the industry to
"invest in their businesses".
The
agreements cover the area spanning from the Mid North Coast to the
Queensland border, and include state forests in Dorrigo, Wauchope,
Kempsey, Grafton, Coffs Harbour, Taree, Wingham, Gloucester, Glenn
Innes and Casino.
Mr
Saunders confirmed the main terms were unchanged, meaning Forestry
Corporation would continue to supply existing quantities and species
to timber companies in exchange for payment…..
North East Forest Alliance, media release, 9 April 2022:
The NSW Government’s Koala Strategy released today will do little to turn around their extinction trajectory as it is not stopping logging and clearing of Koala habitat which, along with climate heating, are the main drivers of their demise.
“The Strategy proposes nothing to redress the logging of Koala habitat on public lands where at best 5-10 small potential Koala feed trees per hectare need to be protected in core Koala habitat, with the only other requirement being to wait for a Koala to leave before cutting down its tree” NEFA spokesperson Dailan Pugh said.
“We know that Koalas preferentially choose larger individuals of a limited variety of tree species for feeding, and losses of these trees will reduce populations. So protecting and restoring feed and roost trees is a prerequisite for allowing populations to grow on public lands.
“The most important and extensive Koala habitat we know of in NSW is in the proposed Great Koala National Park, encompassing 175,000 hectares of State Forests south of Grafton and west of Coffs Harbour.
“Similarly on the Richmond River lowlands the most important and extensive area known is the proposed Sandy Creek Koala Park, encompassing 7,000 ha of State Forests south of Casino.
“These are public lands that we know are important Koala habitat that need to be protected from further degradation if we want to recover Koala populations. There are many other areas of important Koala habitat on State forests in need of identification and protection from logging.
“The centrepiece of the NSW Koala Strategy is to spend $71 million on private lands, buying properties and implementing conservation agreements over up to 22,000 hectares.
“This will not compensate for the Liberal’s promises to the Nationals, as peace terms in the 2020 Koala Wars, to remove the requirement to obtain permission before clearing core Koala habitat, to end the prohibition on logging core Koala habitat, to open up all environmental zones for logging, and to stop core Koala habitat being added to environmental zones.
“Throwing money at piecemeal protection of private land, while allowing some of the best Koala habitat to be cleared and logged will not save Koalas
“Similarly their strategy to spend $31.5 million to restore and plant new Koala habitat could help, but only if they first stopped clearing and logging existing Koala habitat.
“Rather than the proposed piecemeal approach, what we need for private lands is for the Government to fund Councils to prepare Comprehensive Koala Plans of Management that identify where the core Koala habitat and important linkages are, and then to direct funding to best protecting those lands.
“The NSW Koala Strategy is set to fail because it does not fulfill the most fundamental requirement of stopping existing Koala habitat from being cleared and degraded, and lacks a strategic approach to identify the highest priority lands for protection and revegetation” Mr. Pugh said.
NSW FORESTRY CORPORATION is salvage logging KOALA HABITAT in CLOUDS CREEK and ELLIS STATE FOREST AGAIN IN 2022.
These wet sclerophyll public native forest compartments are within the proposed GREAT KOALA NATIONAL PARK and were extensively burnt during the 2019-20 Black Summer bushfires in November 2019.
This short video clip is a time series of satellite images taken from 16 September 2018 through to 9 June 2022, showing the impacts of logging and bushfire on the local landscape.
The forests here on the Dorrigo Plateau adjoin the NYMBOI-BINDERAY NATIONAL PARK and surround the Clouds Creek Pine Plantations in the southern end of Clarence Valley in northern NSW.
They are managed by the Grafton office of NSW Forestry Corporation, Hardwood Division.
The NSW Office of Environment and Heritage (NSW OEH) has mapped the forests here as preferred koala habitat and the Clouds Creek state forest is recognised as a priority Koala Hub in need of protection to prevent NSW Koalas becoming extinct by 2050.
The Chaelundi Bioregion is a higher elevation, biodiversity hotspot which lies within the north western bounds of the Great Koala National Park proposal and provides forest connectivity across the eastern ranges critical to providing climate adaptivity for a multitude of threatened species living in these old growth, subtropical and warm temperate rainforest and wet sclerophyll forest areas above 600 metres asl.
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The Universal Declaration of Human Rights Article 19
Everyone has the right to freedom of opinion and expression; this right includes freedom to hold opinions without interference and to seek, receive and impart information and ideas through any media and regardless of frontiers.
[Adopted and proclaimed by United Nations General Assembly resolution 217 A (III) of 10 December 1948]
Hi! My name is Boy. I'm a male bi-coloured tabby cat. Ever since I discovered that Malcolm Turnbull's dogs were allowed to blog, I have been pestering Clarencegirl to allow me a small space on North Coast Voices.
A false flag musing: I have noticed one particular voice on Facebook which is Pollyanna-positive on the subject of the Port of Yamba becoming a designated cruise ship destination. What this gentleman doesn’t disclose is that, as a principal of Middle Star Pty Ltd, he could be thought to have a potential pecuniary interest due to the fact that this corporation (which has had an office in Grafton since 2012) provides consultancy services and tourismbusiness development services.
A religion & local government musing: On 11 October 2017 Clarence Valley Council has the Church of Jesus Christ Development Fund Inc in Sutherland Local Court No. 6 for a small claims hearing. It would appear that there may be a little issue in rendering unto Caesar. On 19 September 2017 an ordained minister of a religion (which was named by the Royal Commission into Institutional Responses to Child Sexual Abuse in relation to 40 instances of historical child sexual abuse on the NSW North Coast) read the Opening Prayer at Council’s ordinary monthly meeting. Earlier in the year an ordained minister (from a church network alleged to have supported an overseas orphanage closed because of child abuse claims in 2013) read the Opening Prayer and an ordained minister (belonging to yet another church network accused of ignoring child sexual abuse in the US and racism in South Africa) read the Opening Prayer at yet another ordinary monthly meeting. Nice one councillors - you are covering yourselves with glory!
An investigative musing: Newcastle Herald, 12 August 2017: The state’s corruption watchdog has been asked to investigate the finances of the Awabakal Aboriginal Local Land Council, less than 12 months after the troubled organisation was placed into administration by the state government. The Newcastle Herald understands accounting firm PKF Lawler made the decision to refer the land council to the Independent Commission Against Corruption after discovering a number of irregularities during an audit of its financial statements.The results of the audit were recently presented to a meeting of Awabakal members. Administrator Terry Lawler did not respond when contacted by the Herald and a PKF Lawler spokesperson said it was unable to comment on the matter. Given the intricate web of company relationships that existed with at least one former board member it is not outside the realms of possibility that, if ICAC accepts this referral, then United Land Councils Limited (registered New Zealand) and United First Peoples Syndications Pty Ltd(registered Australia) might be interviewed. North Coast Voices readers will remember that on 15 August 2015 representatives of these two companied gave evidence before NSW Legislative Council General Purpose Standing Committee No. 6 INQUIRY INTO CROWN LAND. This evidence included advocating for a Yamba mega port.
A Nationals musing: Word around the traps is that NSW Nats MP for Clarence Chris Gulaptis has been talking up the notion of cruise ships visiting the Clarence River estuary. Fair dinkum! That man can be guaranteed to run with any bad idea put to him. I'm sure one or more cruise ships moored in the main navigation channel on a regular basis for one, two or three days is something other regular river users will really welcome. *pause for appreciation of irony* The draft of the smallest of the smaller cruise vessels is 3 metres and it would only stay safely afloat in that channel. Even the Yamba-Iluka ferry has been known to get momentarily stuck in silt/sand from time to time in Yamba Bay and even a very small cruise ship wouldn't be able to safely enter and exit Iluka Bay. You can bet your bottom dollar operators of cruise lines would soon be calling for dredging at the approach to the river mouth - and you know how well that goes down with the local residents.
A local councils musing: Which Northern Rivers council is on a low-key NSW Office of Local Government watch list courtesy of feet dragging by a past general manager?
A serial pest musing: I'm sure the Clarence Valley was thrilled to find that a well-known fantasist is active once again in the wee small hours of the morning treading a well-worn path of accusations involving police, local business owners and others.
An investigative musing: Which NSW North Coast council is batting to have the longest running code of conduct complaint investigation on record?
A which bank? musing: Despite a net profit last year of $9,227 million the Commonwealth Bank still insists on paying below Centrelink deeming rates interest on money held in Pensioner Security Accounts. One local wag says he’s waiting for the first bill from the bank charging him for the privilege of keeping his pension dollars at that bank.
A Daily Examiner musing: Just when you thought this newspaper could sink no lower under News Corp management, it continues to give column space to Andrew Bolt.
A thought to ponder musing: In case of bushfire or flood - do you have an emergency evacuation plan for the family pet?
An adoption musing: Every week on the NSW North Coast a number of cats and dogs find themselves without a home. If you want to do your bit and give one bundle of joy a new family, contact Happy Paws on 0419 404 766 or your local council pound.
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