Most of what we the general public think we know about sea level rise calculations by inundation height and rate is derived from models which did not anticipate global land and sea surface temperatures accelerating as sharply as they have in the last two years nor thought that an average annual global temperature anomaly of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels was quite literally just around the corner.
So it is highly possible that what is quoted below by way of text and maps is an underestimation of what the Australian East Coast will begin to experience between now and 2030. While it is also likely that the most common established timelines of climate change milestones which run out to 2100 will be truncated to a marked degree.
UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), AR6 Synthesis Report (2020-23), Headline Statements, excerpt:
Continued greenhouse gas emissions will lead to increasing global warming, with the best estimate of reaching 1.5°C in the near term in considered scenarios and modelled pathways. Every increment of global warming will intensify multiple and concurrent hazards (high confidence).
AdaptNSW, excerpt, retrieved 15 January 2024:
IPCC modelling suggests slightly higher sea level rise to the north of the state and slightly lower to the south. These projections do not include processes associated with the melting of ice sheets which for NSW could result in sea level rise of up to 2.3m by 2100 and 5.5m by 2150.
In the longer term, the IPCC show sea level is committed to rise for centuries to millennia due to continuing deep ocean warming and ice sheet melt, and will remain elevated for thousands of years.
If warming is limited to 1.5°C, global mean sea level will rise by about 2 to 3m.
for 2°C, 2 to 6m is expected, and
for 5° 19 to 22m is expected. [my yellow highlighting]
National Oceanography Centre, Clarence Coast Mean Sea Level 1986 – 2022
YAMBA
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NASA, Projected Sea Level Rise Under Different SSP Scenarios, Yamba:
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Clarence Valley Sea Level Rise 2030 onwards based on Climate Central Interactive Mapping
Extent of inundation at 2 metre rise
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Extent of inundation at 3 metre rise
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Rise by 2030 - six years time
Rise by 2040 - sixteen years time
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