This blog is open to any who wish to comment on Australian society, the state of the environment or political shenanigans at Federal, State and Local Government level.
A
suspicious person might wonder if the well-heeled owners and
operators of Airbnb-style short-term rentals in Byron Bay may have been
lobbying both Macquarie Street and Darcy Street concerning Byron
Shire Council’s desire to place a 60-day
annual cap on short-term rentalsby June 2024.
Byron
Shire Council risks losing its planning powers to ‘independent
intervention’ if it does not ‘demonstrate how it intends to
improve its housing supply’.
In
an aggressive letter to Council’s general manager, Mark Arnold,
Sydney-based Deputy Secretary NSW Planning, Marcus Ray, outlined what
he believes is Council’s failure in fast-tracking housing supply
for the area, adding that Council’s development application (DA)
processing times ‘are among the slowest in the state’.
In
the letter, which was provided to The Echo, Mr Ray demands that
Council outline ‘commitments it intends to make over the next
three, six, 12 months and beyond, to deliver at least 4,522 new and
diverse homes to 2041’.
It’s
a target that he says Council will fall ‘well short of’.
Where
is the flood data?
The
demand comes despite his own department still sitting on the
long-awaited 2022 flood data that will underpin further developments.
In
previous years, the NSW planning department told The Echo that
housing targets are set by councils, are flexible, and not
enforceable.
Regarding
the Independent Planning Commission (IPC) report recommendations on
short-term rental accommodation (STRA), which are yet to be
adopted/rejected by NSW Labor Minister Paul Scully, Mr Ray says, ‘it
remains critical for Council to demonstrate how it intends to improve
its housing supply before any decision on Council’s planning
proposal can be made’….
Theestimated usual resident population of the NSW Northern Rivers region at the 2021 census was 311,177 men, women and children and the largest age cohort appears to be people aged between 55-69 years of age.
These regional residents are living in est.143,846 freestanding houses, semi-detached town houses, units, flats, cabins and caravans.
From I July 2021 to January 2023 there have been a total of 2,137 new building approvals granted across the region. This represents a fall of -31 housing approvals compared to those granted from 1 July 2020 to 30 June 21. Most of these approvals appear to have been for free standing houses.
As of 4 April 2023 there are est. 700 properties on the regional rental market, with approximately half priced between $800 to $3,500 a week. In 2021 in Northern Rivers Region an estimated half of all households had incomes below $2,000 per week and only 13.1% of all households earned an income of $3,000 or more per week.
“Housing
markets are now at an inflection point. At a time of returning
migration, they are contending with a perfect storm of high inflation
and interest rates, slowing supply and record low vacancy rates.”
Australia’s
housing markets have been through an extraordinary period, impacted
by COVID-19 related lockdowns, low population growth and record
amounts of monetary and fiscal stimulus.
NHFIC
modelling in the State of the Nation’s Housing 2022-23 suggests:
More
than 1.8 million new households are expected to form across
Australia from 2023 to 2033, taking total households to 12.6 million
(up from 10.7 million in 2022). These households are expected to
comprise around 1.7 million new occupied households and 116,000
vacant properties (e.g. holiday homes).
The
much earlier increase in interest rates (relative to previous
Reserve Bank of Australia guidance) is adversely impacting supply.
NHFIC expects around 148,500 new dwellings (net of demolitions) to
be delivered in 2022-23, before net new construction falls to
127,500 in 2024-25. A recovery in supply is expected after 2025-26
on the back of changing macroeconomic conditions and stronger
underlying demand.
Slowing
supply, together with increasing household formation is expected to
lead to a supply household formation balance of around -106,300
dwellings (cumulative) over the 5 years to 2027 (and around -79,300
dwellings over the projection period 2023 to 2033).
From
2023 to 2032, household formation is expected to be dominated by
lone person households (563,600 additional households), followed by
couples with children households (533,300 additional households).
Within 5 years, it is expected lone person households will be the
fastest growing household type across the country.
NHFIC
continues to expect a shortage of apartments and multi-density
dwellings for rent over the medium-term. Net additions of apartments
and medium-density dwellings such as town houses are projected to be
around 57,000 a year (on average) over the 5 years to 2026-27,
around 40% less than the levels seen in the late 2010s.
The
premium for space at home, with ongoing work from home arrangements
following the pandemic has contributed to reducing average household
size. This has been a factor in sharply falling vacancy rates.
Analysis shows that decreasing household size since mid-2021 led to
an additional 341,500 households forming, or around 103,000 in net
terms since the beginning of COVID-19.
NHFIC
estimates that, conservatively, around 377,600 households are in
housing need, comprising 331,000 households in rental stress and
46,500 households experiencing homelessness. Housing need across the
country range from 208,200 households in highly acute rental stress
to 577,400 households under less acute rental pressure.
Key
findings:
Strong
demand for housing coupled with tight supply of both labour and
materials, and bad weather has put significant pressure on the
construction industry. Approximately 28,000 dwellings were delayed
in 2022. NHFIC’s industry consultation suggests builders are
making cost allowances of up to 40% for unexpected delays, up from a
more normal 20%.
In
addition to higher interest rates, supply of new housing continues
to be impeded by a range of factors including, the availability of
serviced land, higher construction costs, ongoing community
opposition to development and long lead times for delivering new
supply.
Rental
growth and rental affordability varied significantly across and
within greater city and regional areas, with rental growth in
regional areas now falling after a period of record demand. Rental
growth in major cities such as Sydney and Melbourne are outpacing
rental growth in regional NSW and Vic, which suggests the premium of
living in large cities close to employment centres may be returning.
Rental
affordability has varied greatly across the country during COVID-19.
In Sydney, rents in several outer Local Government Areas (LGAs)
increased more than 30% from early-2020 to January 2023 and more
than 3 times that of some inner-city LGAs. Outcomes in Melbourne
have been more subdued, with more than half of Melbourne’s LGAs
experiencing rental increases of less than 10% since pre-pandemic.
Southeast Qld has had the largest rental rises, with all 12 LGAs
experiencing rental increases of 30% or more.
Trends
in the macroeconomy can affect the ability of first home buyers to
enter the market. Analysis shows that since the 1990s in Sydney,
deposit hurdle rates (i.e. deposit as a percentage of income) on
average increased by around 8% during an interest rate tightening
cycle (-10% so far this cycle), compared with 26% during easing
cycles. The average deposit required as a percentage of annual
income has nearly doubled over this period from 60% to 110%.
“In
the detached market, in the 12 months to January 2023, average
capital city price growth dropped to -4% after peaking
at 23% in the last quarter of 2021.
Sydney
and Melbourne were most impacted, with house prices
falling around 15% and 11% respectively over the12
months to January 2023. House price growth was still relatively
strong in Adelaide (6%) followed by Darwin (5%) and
Perth (3%).
Detached
house price growth in regional NSW, Vic, Qld, SA, WA
and Tas outpaced growth in capital city areas of these states.
The strongest regional price increase was in regional SA”
The
share of households that rent has risen over the past few decades,
mainly in the eastern states. This reflects a rise in the proportion
of private renters as home ownership rates have declined. The share
of households in public housing has also declined, as growth in
public housing stock has not kept pace with growth in the total
number of households. Rent assistance to private tenants has also
become a more common way of providing housing assistance to lower
income households……
The
average and median incomes of renter households are generally lower
than owner-occupiers across age groups.... However, the share of
private renters who are in the top half of the income distribution
has risen over time as the share of private renters in higher paid
jobs, such as professional services, has increased. This shift has
coincided with an increase in the average age of first home buyers
and a decline in the home ownership rate among younger households…..
Renters,
especially those on lower incomes, tend to spend a larger proportion
of their incomes on basic living expenses and have less spare cash
flow (i.e. income available to spend on discretionary consumption or
save), relative to those who have a mortgage. Renters also tend to
have lower savings buffers. In combination, these factors can make
renters more vulnerable to increases in the cost of living and make
it more difficult for these households to accumulate wealth over
time, compared with owner-occupiers….
Nearly
90 per cent of all households in the lowest wealth quintile were
renters in 2019/20. This in part reflects that renters tend to be
younger than other types of households and so have had less
opportunity to accumulate savings over time. However, renters also
tend to have lower wealth compared with owner-occupier households
even after controlling for age and income....
The Australian Bureau of Statistics Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed that Rent CPI stood at 1.0% in April 2022 and had risen to 1.6% by May - then risen again in July to 2.0%, August 2.4%, September 2.9% & December 4.1%.
The start of a new year saw the Rent CPI at 4.8% in January & February 2023. The next release of monthly CPI data occurs on 26 April 2023.
⚡️⚡️NEWS FLASH ⚡️⚡️We are just about to hit the 1 year anniversary since the #LismoreFloods & just 1 person has been offered a buyback leaving 6999 people in limbo. My son & I were rescued from partners home (pic below). My partner has not even received a phone call #nswpol#failpic.twitter.com/duPLUb7bY7
⚡️⚡️NEWS FLASH ⚡️⚡️We are just about to hit the 1 year anniversary since the #LismoreFloods & just 1 person has been offered a buyback leaving 6999 people in limbo. My son & I were rescued from partners home (pic below). My partner has not even received a phone call #nswpol#failpic.twitter.com/duPLUb7bY7
In
February the hills and valleys of the New South Wales northern rivers
are green and lush and fertile in the late summer sun. There is
brightness in the madly proliferating tropical flora, radiance in the
golden hour of the evening.
In
the towns the mud has gone, mostly, and the smell too has faded; a
semblance of normality returned to the main streets. As the foliage
has returned, the devastation of the 2022 floods is more hidden now;
the scale of what happened. The people who are changed.
As
the anniversary of the disaster approaches, along with the cyclone
season, for those left in the flood’s wake the impact is still
unfolding. When the flood waters receded a year ago, for many, the
disaster was only beginning.
“You
could hazard a guess that something like 15 to 20,000 people were
impacted,” says Professor James Bennett Levy from the University of
Sydney Centre for Rural Health. “I would say there’s been huge
collective trauma as well as individual trauma.”
“If
I am doing a community event,” says Naomi Vaotuua, recovery and
resilience officer for the Red Cross, “I will literally have grown
men crying in my arms because it’s a cloudy day and they thought
they were doing alright but they have been triggered.”
Kerry
Pritchard, coordinator of recovery Hub 2484 in Murwillumbah, says: “I
guess what is surfacing now is more residual complex trauma. We feel
like we are still very much in the middle of it, at the coalface of
supporting people. That is both in terms of rebuilding in a physical
sense and also healing from that traumatic event.”
The
northern rivers floods were Australia’s biggest natural disaster
since Cyclone Tracy in 1974. It was the second-costliest event in the
world for insurers in 2022, and the most expensive disaster in
Australian history. Many residents had found premiums unaffordable
and had no insurance at all.
The
Northern Rivers Reconstruction Corporation (NRRC), funded by the
federal and NSW governments, is currently assessing over 6,000
flood-impacted residences for buyback, raising or retrofit.
A
survey released this month by Southern Cross University revealed that
nine months after the event, at the end of 2022, almost 52% of flood
victims were living in the shells of homes that had flooded; 26% were
living in temporary accommodation such as caravans, sheds or pods, or
with friends or family; 18% were living in insecure accommodation
such as tents or temporary rentals; and 4% were no longer living in
the region.
The
departure of thousands of locals is one of the things that broke the
heart of city councillor and executive director of Resilient Lismore,
Elly Bird. “They are disconnected from their community and the
people they went through that experience with and disconnected from
our recovery journey and support. They are probably having a hard
time,” Bird says.
Hanabeth
Luke, senior lecturer in science and engineering at Southern Cross
University, and one of the researchers behind the survey, said she
was “shocked to see the low, low levels of mental health. Twenty
percent of people said they were coping with the stresses and
challenges of recovery and 60% said they were not coping.”
It
is the housing uncertainty causing mental health strain, Luke says;
the stress of “not being able to move forward, making do without a
clear plan”. People live in substandard dwellings while they wait
on government assessments or insurance payouts, not knowing whether
to fix a house or if they might get a buyback. People camp out in
caravans outside dilapidated abandoned houses, houses they are still
paying mortgages and rates for. Families squeeze into a single motel
room where they are not allowed to cook or have their pets.
Up
until last month, the Koori Kitchen was still serving around around
700 free meals a day at Browns Creek car park in Lismore, says Koori
Mail general manager Naomi Moran. It was forced to close as the
council wanted the car spaces back to help support local business
recovery.
These
things take their toll.
“What
has been found is that the more you were likely to have been scared
of injury or death, the higher the likelihood of PTSD,” says
Bennett Levy. “Similarly, the more extensive the inundation the
more likelihood of significant mental health issues. If we go back to
the data we can say that the people who are displaced from home for
more than six months are at very high risk of PTSD.”
Pritchard
sees the data borne out in real life. “A year out and people are
just worn down, they’re exhausted, they’re losing hope and just
can’t see the light at the end of the tunnel. We’re seeing a lot
of suicidal ideation.” People who have always worked hard and
supported themselves find themselves having to ask for help, she
says. “There are a lot of feelings of shame and impotency around
that.”
Those
who could afford insurance are now coming to the end of the 52 weeks
of temporary accommodation paid for by their insurers. For those
locals, there is anxiety about whether they will get into the 11 pod
villages built by Resilience NSW across the region. The villages aim
to house 1,800 people for up to three years. Another 300 people are
still in emergency accommodation…..
A
new Southern Cross University survey has shown almost 50 per cent of
Northern Rivers flood victims were still displaced nine months after
the devastating floods and landslides of 2022.
The
survey, conducted by Southern Cross researchers in the latter months
of last year, aimed to gain a better understanding of the ongoing
struggles faced by flood-affected communities. The results paint a
stark picture.
Of
the 800 survey respondents, 52 percent were back living in a home
that had flooded, while 26 per cent were either living in temporary
accommodation such as caravans, sheds or pods, or with friends and
family. A staggering 18 per cent of people reported they were living
in ‘other’ insecure or crisis accommodation such as tents or
temporary rentals and four per cent were no longer living in the
region.
One
fifth of respondents reported it was hard to find out what support
was available to them, suggesting insufficient variety in information
channels used to communicate with flood-affected residents.
Additionally, nearly one third of insured survey respondents reported
being ineligible for an insurance payout, and many cited excessive
bureaucracy as a major barrier to accessing funding for recovery
efforts. Survey respondents had to fill out an average 6-8 forms each
to receive any financial assistance.
The
Insurance Council of Australia estimates the cost of the 2022 east
coast floods to be around AUD $5 billion in insurance damages. The
Southern Cross survey results showed that while the most common cost
of the flood was between $201,000-$500,000 to each respondent, the
most common maximum amount received at the time of completing the
survey was a tenth of that, at $21,000-$50,000.
"The
findings of this survey are a sobering reminder of the ongoing impact
of the floods on the Northern Rivers community," said lead
researcher Dr Hanabeth Luke.
“Flooding
has affected dozens of rural and urban communities around the country
and continues to do so, most recently in Western Australia. There are
important learnings from this that can guide us and others to be
better prepared next time,” she said.
Elly
Bird, Executive Director of Resilient Lismore – a community
organisation and partner in the survey – said "just 20 per
cent of respondents report they are coping with the stresses and
challenges of recovering from the floods, and more than 80 per cent
agree that community hubs have been essential to their recovery.
“Nearly
60 per cent of respondents still need help with access to
tradespeople, and more than 45 per cent require access to building
materials. This is holding up the recovery and needs to be addressed
urgently.”
Many
respondents reported not ‘being able to plan’ as a significant
challenge.
The
majority (96 per cent) of survey respondents saw community
preparedness as most important for mitigating future events, with
engineering solutions receiving a lower level of support than all
other options.
"This
study is a crucial tool in the ongoing efforts of our community to
build back. Tapping into the experiences of those affected will help
shape services and streamline processes and hold us in better stead
for future events,” said Ms Bird.
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The Universal Declaration of Human Rights Article 19
Everyone has the right to freedom of opinion and expression; this right includes freedom to hold opinions without interference and to seek, receive and impart information and ideas through any media and regardless of frontiers.
[Adopted and proclaimed by United Nations General Assembly resolution 217 A (III) of 10 December 1948]
Hi! My name is Boy. I'm a male bi-coloured tabby cat. Ever since I discovered that Malcolm Turnbull's dogs were allowed to blog, I have been pestering Clarencegirl to allow me a small space on North Coast Voices.
A false flag musing: I have noticed one particular voice on Facebook which is Pollyanna-positive on the subject of the Port of Yamba becoming a designated cruise ship destination. What this gentleman doesn’t disclose is that, as a principal of Middle Star Pty Ltd, he could be thought to have a potential pecuniary interest due to the fact that this corporation (which has had an office in Grafton since 2012) provides consultancy services and tourismbusiness development services.
A religion & local government musing: On 11 October 2017 Clarence Valley Council has the Church of Jesus Christ Development Fund Inc in Sutherland Local Court No. 6 for a small claims hearing. It would appear that there may be a little issue in rendering unto Caesar. On 19 September 2017 an ordained minister of a religion (which was named by the Royal Commission into Institutional Responses to Child Sexual Abuse in relation to 40 instances of historical child sexual abuse on the NSW North Coast) read the Opening Prayer at Council’s ordinary monthly meeting. Earlier in the year an ordained minister (from a church network alleged to have supported an overseas orphanage closed because of child abuse claims in 2013) read the Opening Prayer and an ordained minister (belonging to yet another church network accused of ignoring child sexual abuse in the US and racism in South Africa) read the Opening Prayer at yet another ordinary monthly meeting. Nice one councillors - you are covering yourselves with glory!
An investigative musing: Newcastle Herald, 12 August 2017: The state’s corruption watchdog has been asked to investigate the finances of the Awabakal Aboriginal Local Land Council, less than 12 months after the troubled organisation was placed into administration by the state government. The Newcastle Herald understands accounting firm PKF Lawler made the decision to refer the land council to the Independent Commission Against Corruption after discovering a number of irregularities during an audit of its financial statements.The results of the audit were recently presented to a meeting of Awabakal members. Administrator Terry Lawler did not respond when contacted by the Herald and a PKF Lawler spokesperson said it was unable to comment on the matter. Given the intricate web of company relationships that existed with at least one former board member it is not outside the realms of possibility that, if ICAC accepts this referral, then United Land Councils Limited (registered New Zealand) and United First Peoples Syndications Pty Ltd(registered Australia) might be interviewed. North Coast Voices readers will remember that on 15 August 2015 representatives of these two companied gave evidence before NSW Legislative Council General Purpose Standing Committee No. 6 INQUIRY INTO CROWN LAND. This evidence included advocating for a Yamba mega port.
A Nationals musing: Word around the traps is that NSW Nats MP for Clarence Chris Gulaptis has been talking up the notion of cruise ships visiting the Clarence River estuary. Fair dinkum! That man can be guaranteed to run with any bad idea put to him. I'm sure one or more cruise ships moored in the main navigation channel on a regular basis for one, two or three days is something other regular river users will really welcome. *pause for appreciation of irony* The draft of the smallest of the smaller cruise vessels is 3 metres and it would only stay safely afloat in that channel. Even the Yamba-Iluka ferry has been known to get momentarily stuck in silt/sand from time to time in Yamba Bay and even a very small cruise ship wouldn't be able to safely enter and exit Iluka Bay. You can bet your bottom dollar operators of cruise lines would soon be calling for dredging at the approach to the river mouth - and you know how well that goes down with the local residents.
A local councils musing: Which Northern Rivers council is on a low-key NSW Office of Local Government watch list courtesy of feet dragging by a past general manager?
A serial pest musing: I'm sure the Clarence Valley was thrilled to find that a well-known fantasist is active once again in the wee small hours of the morning treading a well-worn path of accusations involving police, local business owners and others.
An investigative musing: Which NSW North Coast council is batting to have the longest running code of conduct complaint investigation on record?
A which bank? musing: Despite a net profit last year of $9,227 million the Commonwealth Bank still insists on paying below Centrelink deeming rates interest on money held in Pensioner Security Accounts. One local wag says he’s waiting for the first bill from the bank charging him for the privilege of keeping his pension dollars at that bank.
A Daily Examiner musing: Just when you thought this newspaper could sink no lower under News Corp management, it continues to give column space to Andrew Bolt.
A thought to ponder musing: In case of bushfire or flood - do you have an emergency evacuation plan for the family pet?
An adoption musing: Every week on the NSW North Coast a number of cats and dogs find themselves without a home. If you want to do your bit and give one bundle of joy a new family, contact Happy Paws on 0419 404 766 or your local council pound.
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