The world's 8.2 billion people are now ‘Teetering on a planetary tight rope’. Why? Because at successive UN COPs since 2015 the majority of nation participants, political advisors & industry lobbyists have turned the process into a crude, state-sponsored shell game

 

UNITED NATIONS, UN News

24 October 2024 | Climate and Environment

‘Climate crunch time is here,’ new UN report warns

Fossil fuel power plants are one of the largest emitters of the greenhouse gases that cause climate change.

24 October 2024 Climate and Environment

Annual greenhouse gas emissions are at an all-time high, and urgent action must be taken to prevent catastrophic spikes in temperature and avoid the worst impact of climate change, according to a new report released on Thursday by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP).

In short, countries must start curbing emissions immediately, according to the UN Emissions Gap Report 2024.

“Climate crunch time is here,” said UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen.

“We need global mobilisation on a scale and pace never seen before, starting right now before the next round of climate pledges.”

If not, she warned, the 1.5°C goal to cap rising temperatures set in the Paris Agreement on climate change “will soon be dead, and well below two degrees Celsius will take its place in the intensive care unit”.

Climate goals could evaporate

Launched at the COP16 global biodiversity conference in Cali, Colombia, the report tracks the gap between where global emissions are heading with current country commitments and where they ought to be to limit warming to well below 2°C and pursuing 1.5°C in line with the temperature goals set out in the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change.

According to the report, the 1.5°C goal will be gone within a few years unless nations collectively commit to cut 42 per cent of annual greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and 57 per cent by 2035 in the next round of nationally determined contributions and back this up with rapid action.

These self-defined contributions outline steps to reduce emissions and adapt to climate impacts – from drought, flooding and extreme weather events – securing necessary funds and updating plans every five years, the next time being in early 2025 ahead of the COP30 climate talks in Brazil.

‘Teetering on planetary tight rope’

Without dramatic cuts to greenhouse gas emissions, the world could face an inevitable and catastrophic 3.1°C temperature rise, according to the report, which comes at a time when governments are failing to fully deliver on their promises.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres said the emissions gap is not an abstract notion. Indeed, there is a direct link between increasing emissions and increasingly frequent and intense climate disasters.

“We are teetering on a planetary tight rope,” he warned in a video message. “Either leaders bridge the emissions gap or we plunge headlong into climate disaster, with the poorest and most vulnerable suffering the most.

Affordable technologies can help

The COP29 UN Climate Change Conference commencing in Baku, Azerbaijan, in November should serve as a launchpad for a detailed discussion of such new ambitious national plans, he said, saying that the event “starts the clock for countries to deliver new national climate action plans by next year”.

“Governments have agreed to align these plans with 1.5 degrees,” he said.

That means they must drive down all greenhouse gas emissions and cover the whole economy, pushing progress in every sector, he said, urging the largest economies – the G20 members responsible for around 80 per cent of all emissions – to lead in this process.

There is hope, the UN chief stressed.

“Today’s report shows affordable, existing technologies can achieve the emissions reductions we need to 2030 and 2035 to meet the 1.5°C limit, but only with a surge in ambition and support,” he said.

Clean energy can change trajectory

The report shows significant potential to reduce emissions by up to 31 gigatons of CO₂ by 2030, which translates to about 52 per cent of emissions reported in 2023, and by 41 gigatons by 2035, helping to meet the 1.5°C target for both years.

Boosting solar photovoltaic and wind energy usage could contribute 27 per cent of the total reduction in 2030 and 38 per cent by 2035. Additionally, forest conservation could provide around 20 per cent of the necessary reductions in both years.

Other effective strategies include enhancing energy efficiency, electrifying various sectors and transitioning from fossil fuels in buildings, transport and industry, according to the report.

However, the report stated that realising even a fraction of this potential will demand unprecedented international cooperation and a comprehensive approach from governments, focusing on maximising socioeconomic and environmental benefits while minimising trade-offs.

The Emissions Gap Report 2004 titled "No more hot air … please! With a massive gap between rhetoric and reality, countries draft new climate commitments" can be downloaded at

https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/46404/EGR2024.pdf?sequence=3&isAllowed=y

Warning contained on Page 12 of the 2024 report:

Executive summary

All eyes on the next nationally determined contributions

The deadline for countries to submit their next nationally determined contributions (NDCs) with mitigation targets for 2035 is only a few months away, at the time of writing.

The fifteenth Emissions Gap Report has a special focus on what is required from these NDCs to maintain the possibility of achieving the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement of limiting global warming to well below 2°C, while pursuing 1.5°C relative to pre-industrial levels. Its core message is that ambition means nothing without action – unless global emissions in 2030 are brought below the levels implied by existing policies and current NDCs, it will become impossible to reach a pathway that would limit global warming to 1.5°C with no or limited overshoot (>50 per cent chance), and strongly increase the challenge of limiting warming to 2°C (>66 per cent chance). The next NDCs must deliver a quantum leap in ambition in tandem with accelerated mitigation action in this decade.

The magnitude of the challenge is indisputable. At the same time, there are abundant opportunities for accelerating mitigation action alongside achieving pressing development needs and Sustainable Development Goals. Technology developments, particularly in wind and solar energy, continue to exceed expectations, lowering deployment costs and driving their market expansion. The updated assessment of sectoral emission reduction potentials included in this year’s report shows that the techno-economic emission reduction potential based on existing technologies and at costs below US$200 per ton of carbon dioxide equivalent (tCO2e) remains sufficient to bridge the emissions gap in 2030 and 2035. But this will require overcoming formidable policy, governance, institutional and technical barriers as well as an unprecedented increase in the support provided to developing countries along with a redesigning of the international financial architecture. [my yellow highlighting]

From Page 14 of the 2024 report:

Figure ES.2 The landscape of current NDC targets and implementation gaps for the G20 members collectively and individually by 2030, relative to 2019 emissions

Implied emissions trajectories of the G20 members towards net zero show reasons for concern

As at 1 June 2024, 101 parties representing 107 countries and covering approximately 82 per cent of global GHG emissions had adopted net-zero pledges either in law (28 parties), in a policy document such as an NDC or a long-term strategy (56 parties), or in an announcement by a high-level government official (17 parties). All G20 members except Mexico and the African Union (collectively) have set net-zero targets.

Overall, however, limited progress has been made since last year’s assessment on the key indicators of confidence in net-zero implementation, including legal status, the existence and quality of implementation plans and the alignment of near-term emissions trajectories with net-zero targets.

[my yellow highlighting]

On 16 June 2022 Australia submitted an updated version of its 2015 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to the UNFCCC. The update committed Australia to reducing its emissions to 43% below 2005 levels by 2030 and, reaffirmed its commitment to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. NOTE: This is not a commitment to reach absolute zero emissions.

Australia along with other UN member states will be obliged to lodge a new version of its 2022 NDC following COP29 negotiations in November 2024.

BACKGROUND

AUSTRALIA'S ENVIRONMENT 2003 REPORT,

released March 2024, excerpts:

Overview

The year 2023 was one of opposites, with environmental conditions swinging from wet to dry and back.

Globally, climate change accelerated with greenhouse gas emissions accelerating and global warming shattering new records in sea level rise, sea ice loss and temperatures in the oceans and atmosphere.

For Australia, 2023 was the eighth hottest year on record. The year began wet with average temperatures, continuing the La Niña conditions of the previous three years. Northern Australia experienced a wet monsoon season, providing relief after the previous dry years.

Wet conditions gave way to dry and unseasonably warm weather from May to October. River flows, wetlands and water reservoirs all declined from the very high 2022 levels but were still well above average.

Growing conditions were generally very good because of high soil water reserves at the start of the year and the warm and sunny cool season.

The warm and dry winter months did cause an early start of the fire season, as early as August in NSW. An intense fire season was expected but averted when wet conditions returned in November, despite a switch to El Niño climate circulation.

In December, very warm ocean temperatures east of Australia contributed to a cyclone and several storm systems that caused flooding across Queensland and Victoria.

The recovering Great Barrier Reef remained stable, but the impact of the high temperatures, a cyclone and river-borne sediments later in the year is not known yet.

The number of threatened species increased sharply, mostly as a delayed effect of the 2019/20 Black Summer bushfires.

An update to the Threatened Species Index in 2023 revealed continuous and compounding declines for threatened bird populations across Australia.

The greatest threats to Australia’s biodiversity continue to be climate change, invasive species and habitat destruction. Among invasive species, the further spread of cane toads is of significant concern.

Averaged of the year, most environmental indicators declined somewhat from very high values in 2022 but remained well above average, contributing to an overall Environmental Condition Score of 7.5......

Global Change

Globally, CO2 emissions and climate change are accelerating. 2023 saw the highest temperatures in the atmosphere and in the oceans ever recorded, the least sea ice ever observed, and a rapid increase in sea level. Atmospheric CO concentration increased by 2.6 ppm, which is 41% faster than the previous year and 16% faster than the average 2000–2022 growth rate. The rapid increase was due to a combination of ever-increasing fossil fuel emissions and a change to El Niño conditions during 2023. The average CO2 concentration reached 421 ppm, a 33% increase from 1960.

Global average air temperature was the highest on record by a considerable margin. It was 0.32 °C higher than the previous year and 1.18 °C above the 20th century average. The last ten years (2014–2023) all rank as the ten warmest on record.

The maximum ozone hole extent was 2% smaller than the previous year. It was 5% larger than the 2000–2022 average but 13% below the maximum extent observed in 2000. The ozone hole has not shrunk over the last two decades but may have stabilised.

Oceans absorb 93% of excess heat from climate change. Global ocean heat content increased by 4.8% compared to the previous year. Globally, sea surface temperatures were the highest on record in 2023.

The global mean sea level rose by 11.7 mm in 2023; the most rapid rise since 2015. Sea level has increased by 85 mm since 2000 and 101 mm since 1993.

Global Ocean Warming

+4.8% HEAT INCREASED FROM 2022

Sea ice extent was 2% less than the previous year in the Arctic and 8% less around Antarctica, where it broke the record set the previous year. Ice extent on both hemispheres combined was 5.0% less than the previous year, the lowest on record and 9.5% lower than the 2000–2022 average....

The full Australia's Environment 2023 Report can be read and downloaded at

https://www.wenfo.org/aer/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/2023_Australias_Environment_Report_March2024_spreads.pdf

Opposition Leader & Liberal MP for Dickson, Peter 'The Dickson Spuddler' Dutton - less a slow strip tease of election campaign policies more a full frontal flash

 

Google News, snapshot 09.06.24

ABC News, 8 June 2024:

The federal Coalition has confirmed it will dump Australia's commitment to reduce emissions by 43 per cent by 2030, arguing it is unachievable.

Australia has committed under the Paris Agreement to cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 43 per cent on 2005 levels by the end of the decade.

Abandoning the target would also mean withdrawing from the Paris Agreement.

The Sydney Morning Herald, 8 June 2024:

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has signalled he will scrap the nation’s legally binding 2030 climate target and risk Australia’s membership of the Paris Agreement on climate change, following his vow to deploy nuclear energy to reach net zero by 2050.

Dutton declared on Saturday that a Coalition government would not pursue Australia’s legally binding climate target to cut emissions by 43 per cent from 2005 levels by 2030 – a significant escalation of Australia’s long-running climate policy war ahead of the next federal election due by May next year.

Dutton told The Australian on Saturday that the government’s renewable goal was unattainable and “there’s no sense in signing up to targets you don’t have any prospect of achieving”.

The opposition has said if it forms government it would build up to seven emissions-free nuclear power plants to replace the energy supply from Australia’s dirty coal plants, which have begun to shut down across the country. He would also pause the rollout of wind and solar farms.

The CSIRO found Australia could not build a nuclear plant until 2040 and Dutton has said the Coalition would boost the role of gas power to fill gaps in the energy grid until his reactors are built....

The Guardian, 8 June 2024:

Opposition leader reportedly told News Corp he would oppose the legislated 2030 emissions target – a 43% cut compared with 2005 levels – at the next election....

Dutton also reportedly conceded that the Coalition’s commitment to introduce nuclear power in Australia would not lead to plants being built before 2040, a point made by experts, and critics who have accused the opposition of planning to delay action to address the climate crisis.

Yesterday's very public move against science and commonsense by Opposition Leader & Liberal MP for Dickson, Peter 'The Dickson Spuddler' Dutton may or may not be news to the Climate Change Authority in the nation's capital Canberra.

I suspect that the intention of this move is to excite his flying monkeys into 'bombing' yet another independent authority in the hope of modifying its published opinion.

The Australian Government's Climate Change Authority is "an independent statutory body established under the Climate Change Authority Act 2011 to provide expert advice to the Australian Government on climate change policy." It has a Chair, along with seven members, an ex-officio member, a four member secretariat headed by a CEO and, a published Charter. The Authority meets at least every six weeks from February to December, with its latest meeting held on 14 May 2024.

This is a brief look at the Authority's views.....

2035 Emissions Reduction Targets, updated 15 May 2024, excerpts:

The Climate Change Authority is developing advice on the 2035 emissions reduction targets for Australia’s next Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), as requested by the Minister for Climate Change and Energy.....

Australia is due to submit its next NDC under the Paris Agreement in 2025. Under the Climate Change Act 2022 the Australian Government must receive the authority’s advice before submitting Australia’s next emissions reduction targets. We expect to submit our 2035 targets advice to the Minister for Climate Change and Energy in the fourth quarter of 2024....

The authority will provide advice on the 2035 greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets it considers should be included in Australia’s next NDC. We will also advise on the social, employment and economic benefits of the targets and associated policies it recommends and the physical impacts of climate change on Australia, including for rural and regional Australia.

In accordance with the Climate Change Act 2022, our advice will include an explanation of how the targets have taken into account matters set out in Article 2 of the Paris Agreement, including the global temperature goals of well below 2°C and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

The authority’s work is always guided by the principle set out in the Climate Change Authority Act 2011 that any measures to respond to climate change should be, among other considerations, economically efficient, environmentally effective, equitable, in the public interest and consistent with Australia’s foreign policy interests and commitments."

We consider scientific evidence to understand and advise how the global temperature goals and broader principles of the Paris Agreement should guide Australia’s domestic emissions reduction efforts.

In preparing its advice, the authority will consider the challenges and opportunities the net zero transition presents for the Australian economy, and broader contributions Australia can make to the global effort. This includes looking at how Australia can support other countries reduce their emissions and build resilience to climate change impacts, through the goods and services we export, and by building on our history of contributing to capacity building through knowledge-sharing, technology transfer and climate finance in the region.

2024 Issues Paper: Targets, Pathways and Progress, 11 April 2024, excerpt:

The evidence the authority has considered so far suggests a 2035 target in the range of 65-75% below 2005 levels would be ambitious, and could be achievable and sustainable if additional action is taken by governments, business, investors and households to achieve it. However, attempting to go much faster could risk significant levels of economic and social disruption and put progress at risk.

Australia and the world are fast running out of time to limit negative impacts of climate change to spans of multiple generations rather than millennia

 

The United Nations website is very clear about what has been agreed at an international level concerning the global response required to limit the Earth’s global warming to an average 1.5°C, thereby limiting the negative impacts of climate change in intensity and time span – hopefully to spans of multiple generations rather than millennia.

The Paris Agreement is a legally binding international treaty on climate change. It was adopted by 196 Parties at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP21) in Paris, France, on 12 December 2015. It entered into force on 4 November 2016.

Its overarching goal is to hold “the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels” and pursue efforts “to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.”

Australia is a party to the 2015 Paris Agreement, effective 4 November 2016.

However, in recent years, world leaders have stressed the need to limit global warming to 1.5°C by the end of this century.

That’s because the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change indicates that crossing the 1.5°C threshold risks unleashing far more severe climate change impacts, including more frequent and severe droughts, heatwaves and rainfall.

To limit global warming to 1.5°C, greenhouse gas emissions must peak before 2025 at the latest and decline 43% by 2030.

All those nations which entered into the Paris Agreement agreed to participate in the global attempt to reduce the world’s greenhouse gas emission by establishing firm undertakings in Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).

In their NDCs, countries communicate actions they will take to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions in order to reach the goals of the Paris Agreement. Countries also communicate in their NDCs actions they will take to build resilience to adapt to the impacts of climate change.

Australia submitted its first NDC to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) in 2015 and updated that version of the NDC in 2022. This update commits Australia to reducing its emissions to 43% below 2005 levels by 2030. It should be noted that in 2005 Australia’s total national greenhouse gas emissions of 559.1 million tonnes of carbon equivalent gases (MT CO²-e) was already 102.2% of its 1990 annual total of 515.9 MT CO²-e.

It could be said that even now our national reduction of greenhouse gas emissions is sluggish at best.

"For the year to June [2023], according to the preliminary numbers from the government’s latest national greenhouse gas inventory, emissions were 4.1 million tonnes above those for the corresponding period the previous year." [The Saturday Paper, 08.09.23]

 

In the year to December 2015 Australia’s “annual unadjusted” greenhouse gas emissions stood at 529.2 MT CO²-e. An artificially constructed figure because per government policy it excluded emissions from from land use, land use change and forestry. These excluded emissions would have possibly added more than 1.0 MT CO²-e bringing the national annual total to over 30 MT CO²-e in 2015.

By year to December 2022 Australia’s “actual annual” greenhouse gas emissions were recorded as 463.9 MT CO²-e. A figure arrived at by an alleged fall in emissions from land use, land use change and forestry of est. -13.6 MT CO²-e due to professed reductions in land clearing and native forest harvesting, increases in plantations and native vegetation, and improvements in soil carbon. NOTE: By year to December 2022 each person in Australia was estimated to be responsible for 17.8 tonnes CO²-e of that year’s greenhouse gas emissions total.

What Australian governments and industries has effected was a paltry national greenhouse gas emissions change of est.

-65.3 MT CO²-e spread over eight years – an average of 8.1. Or est. -95.2 MT CO²-e spread over 17 years – an average of 5.6 MT CO²-e per annum. And that change was to a significant degree on the back of the adoption of rooftop renewable energy by the general population which in the year to December 2022 was contributing to an electricity sector emissions reduction of 5.5 MT CO²-e, according to the Dept. of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water.

Either way, leaving Australia with an urgent need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least the promised -240.4 MT CO²-e within the next seven years. That’s roughly 34.3 MT CO²-e emissions we have to cease releasing into the air, waterways and oceans each and every year until 2030 to even have a chance at surviving as a nation and a functioning society beyond that year.

Creative accounting using offsets, hiding behind green washing propaganda, pushing hard decisions further down the track into the future, just won’t work. We need to immediately tighten polluting emissions regulations & abatement requirements, begin phasing out current unabated fossils greenhouse gas and, from this point in time where we stand right now, we must refuse all new or expanded proposals for fossil fuel extraction and use.

Australian industry and corporations both foreign and domestic are laughing in our faces and, federal & state governments appear all but frozen into inaction by the magnitude of the climate crisis before us. There will be no heroes coming down from the mountains to save us, no ships arriving to sail us all to as yet undiscovered safety, no divine miracles falling from the skies.

Australia’s estimated resident population stood at 26,268,359 men, women and children in December 2022 according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. 

An estimated 21,461,249 of the resident population in 2022 were individuals 15 years of age and older.

By default theirs is the burden of stopping that 240.4 MT CO²-e of additional pollution entering earth’s atmosphere over Australia by 2030. That’s an extra 11.2 tonnes CO²-e per person averaging 1.6 tonne of carbon equivalent a year.

So how do we each attempt to shoulder this terrible burden? 

"Key finding 4: global emissions are not in line with modelled global mitigation pathways consistent with the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement, and there is a rapidly narrowing window to raise ambition and implement existing commitments in order to limit warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels." 

[United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), Technical dialogue of the first global stocktake, Advance Version 8 September 2023, excerpt]

 

PRINCIPAL SOURCES

• UN., Climate Change, retrieved 8 September 2023
• U.N., The Paris Agreement
• U.N., Technical dialogue of the first global stocktake. Synthesis report by the co-facilitators on the technical dialogue, Advance Version 8 September 2023
• U.N., Nationally Determined Contributions Registry
• DCCEEW, Australia’s National Greenhouse Accounts, 1990 onwards
• DCCEEW, National Inventory Reports
• DCCEEW, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory: Quarterly updates 2009-2023
• ABS, Australia's Environment: Issues and Trends, 2002 onwards
• ABS, Year Book Australia, 2005
• Our Word In Data, C02 Emissions
• Nature, Food, Global food-miles account for nearly 20% of total food-systems emissions, 15 December 2022

Postscript:

Stocktaking our personal emissions level and, looking at ways of reducing that average per head of population average green house gas emission excessive budget of 17.8 tonnes CO²-e, may be something we can all attempt. 

For example: 

• the average vehicle in Australia is estimated to travel 12,100 km per year or 33.2 km per day, which represents around 2.1 tonne CO²-e annually; 

• while the average household across all power supply types is estimated to consume 5,818.6kw/h of electricity each year, which can be as high as 3 tonne CO²-e annually depending on the mix of supply types per household; and

• imported food or imported ingredients have food transport kilometres attached, which in Australia's case means food importation from the European Union represents est. 1.3 MT CO²-e annually or approx. 50 kg CO²-e per capita. A serve of deli sausage from Denmark travels est. 25,000 food kilometres to reach the supermarket counter. 

Time to get cracking and shame the devils who brought us to this catastrophic pass - even if the task appears impossible and we merely so many cursed children of a condemned Sisyphus.

Australia has a methane problem and it is not going away

 

Methane (CH₄) is a simple hydrocarbon found in nature as a gas. It has a much shorter atmospheric lifetime than carbon dioxide (CO₂) – around 12 years compared with centuries – but absorbs much more energy while it exists in the atmosphere. Reportedly absorbing heat 84 times faster than carbon dioxide over a 20-year period.

Methane affects air quality to the point of being a dangerous pollutant when it leads to ground level (tropospheric) ozone. Methane leaks can also pose explosion hazards.

Methane is also a greenhouse gas whose presence in the atmosphere in increasing intensity affects the Earth’s temperature and climate.

It is emitted from a variety of natural and human-influenced sources, including landfills, oil and natural gas systems, agricultural activities, coal mining, stationary and mobile combustion, wastewater treatment, and certain industrial processes. These emissions can occur by way of uncontrolled release, fugitive escape, periodic venting or flaring.

It is thought that methane in the atmosphere has been one the seven major gas emissions driving climate change since the Industrial Revolution.

According to the CSIRO, in 2021 the Kennaook/Cape Grim Baseline Air Pollution Station near Tasmania’s isolated north-west tip, which records the greenhouse gas data from one of the cleanest air sources in the world, reported the average amount of methane in clean air off the Southern Ocean was 17 parts per billion (ppb) higher than it had been in 2020. This was the highest year-on-year increase measured since the mid-1980s when systematic atmospheric measurements commenced…..

and that the

World Meteorological Organisation’s (WMO) Greenhouse Gas Bulletin, released in October 2022, reported that the globally-averaged atmospheric methane concentration increases in 2020 and 2021 were the largest since records began, at 15 and 18 ppb respectively.

This increase is higher than the average annual increase over the past decade.

Overall, the increase in atmospheric methane has reached 262 per cent of the pre-industrial level.

Put simply, the world and Australia have a methane problem which is contributing to the rise in global greenhouse gas emissions. Which in turn is causing climate change which has been a significant factor in the series of rolling unnatural disasters across Australia over the last decade.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) – an autonomous intergovernmental organisation of which Australia is a member – the world’s total methane emissions were est. 355,801 kilotons (kt) in 2022 and, the energy sector produced est. 131,646.37 kilotons of that total or 37 per cent.

Australia’s contribution to the 2022 global total was 5,544 kilotons of methane emissions or 1.6 per cent of total world emissions, of which 2,217.6 kilotons or 40 per cent were produced by the Australian energy sector.

The Guardian on 24 February 2023 reported that the IEA energy sector emissions estimate is 63% higher than the federal Dept. of Climate Change, Energy, Environment and Water’s estimate of 1.37 tonnes or est.1,370 kilotons.

Most of what the Australian Government reports about methane emission levels in gaseous fuels used by the energy sector comes from self-reporting by energy operators [DCCEEW, National Inventory Report 2020 – Part 1]

The Albanese Labor Government in October 2022 announced in had signed the Global Methane Pledge, a voluntary commitment to participation in global action on methane emissions. Which in the federal government’s case has been interpreted as continuing to partner with industry to decarbonise the economy and pursue emissions reduction initiatives across energy and waste sectors including capturing waste methane to generate electricity.

Elsewhere this has been optimistically reported as an intention to crackdown on methane emissions from fossil fuel extraction.

IEA, News, media release, 21 February 2023:

The IEA’s Global Methane Tracker shows the oil and gas sector could slash emissions of potent greenhouse gas using only a fraction of its bumper income from the energy crisis

A combination of high energy prices, security of supply concerns and economic uncertainty were not enough to drive down methane emissions last year, according to new IEA analysis.

The IEA’s latest update of its Global Methane Tracker found that the global energy industry was responsible for 135 million tonnes of methane released into the atmosphere in 2022, only slightly below the record highs seen in 2019. Today, the energy sector accounts for around 40% of total methane emissions attributable to human activity, second only to agriculture.

Methane is responsible for around 30% of the rise in global temperatures since the Industrial Revolution. It dissipates faster than carbon dioxide but is a much more powerful greenhouse gas during its short lifespan. Cutting methane emissions is one of the most effective ways to limit global warming and improve air quality in the near term. This year’s report also includes methane emissions from coal mines and measures to cut them by half.

Methane emissions from oil and gas alone could be reduced by 75% with existing technologies, highlighting a lack of industry action on an issue that is often very cheap to address. Less than 3% of the income accrued by oil and gas companies worldwide last year would be required to make the USD 100 billion investment in technologies needed to achieve this reduction.

“Our new Global Methane Tracker shows that some progress is being made but that emissions are still far too high and not falling fast enough – especially as methane cuts are among the cheapest options to limit near-term global warming. There is just no excuse,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. “The Nord Stream pipeline explosion last year released a huge amount of methane into the atmosphere. But normal oil and gas operations around the world release the same amount of methane as the Nord Stream explosion every single day.”

Stopping all non-emergency flaring and venting of methane is the most impactful measure countries can take to rein in emissions. Around 260 billion cubic metres (bcm) of methane is currently lost to the atmosphere each year from oil and gas operations. Three-quarters of this could be retained and brought to market using tried and tested policies and technologies. The captured methane would amount to more than the European Union’s total annual gas imports from Russia prior to the invasion of Ukraine.

Satellites are providing an ever-clearer picture of methane emissions and greatly increasing the world’s knowledge of emission sources. The IEA’s Global Methane Tracker incorporates their latest readings along with data from other science-based measurement campaigns. In 2022 alone, more than 500 super-emitting events were detected by satellites from oil and gas operations and a further 100 were seen at coal mines.

“The untamed release of methane in fossil fuel production is a problem that sometimes goes under the radar in public debate,” Dr Birol said. “Unfortunately, it’s not a new issue and emissions remain stubbornly high. Many companies saw hefty profits last year following a turbulent period for international oil and gas markets amid the global energy crisis. Fossil fuel producers need to step up and policy makers need to step in – and both must do so quickly.”

The report highlights the most effective ways to limit coal mine methane emissions in addition to reducing consumption of coal. Deploying mitigation measures should be a priority, especially given the risk that coal demand remains high in the coming years. The IEA has developed a new regulatory roadmap and toolkit to guide actions by policymakers and companies seeking to reduce coal mine methane emissions. This sits alongside the similar publications on oil and gas released in previous years that have become the “go-to” source for policy makers and regulators looking to develop new and impactful methane regulations.

The Global Methane Pledge, launched in November 2021 at the COP26 Climate Change Conference in Glasgow, marked an important step forward by bringing governments together on this issue. The pledge now has around 150 participants that have collectively committed to reduce methane emissions from human activities by 30% by 2030. This includes emissions from agriculture, the energy sector and other sources. Countries that have joined the pledge currently account for 55% of total methane emissions from human activities and about 45% of methane from fossil fuel operations. It will be critical for participants to formulate pragmatic strategies and measures to reduce their own emissions, and to engage with countries that have not yet joined the pledge.